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Based on forest management inventory data, this study applies machine learning algorithms to explore the relationships between forest water conservation capacity and forest management inventory factors, thus providing more extensive insights into forest water conservation services. By integrating the InVEST model and machine learning algorithms, this study identifies the key factors related to water conservation services based on forest management inventory factors and investigates the differences in and accuracy of forest water conservation models using the random forest algorithm. The results are as follows: (1) The determination coefficients (R2) of the three machine learning models range from 0.508 to 0.869, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) ranging from 28.380 to 69.339. The performance of these models is generally satisfactory, with the random forest algorithm showing superior results. (2) By leveraging the advantages of the three machine learning algorithms in handling categorical data, this study analyzes the contributions of forest management inventory factors, revealing the impact mechanisms of forest-type water conservation services. (3) The integration of machine learning algorithms allows for better processing of the scale and correlation of independent variables, providing more objective information on the main controlling factors of forest water conservation. (4) Predictions of water conservation capacity using machine learning are consistent with that of the InVEST model. The water conservation per unit area shows a variation trend as follows: slow-growing broadleaf forests > shrub forests > middle-growing broadleaf forests > cunninghamia lanceolata forests > fast-growing broadleaf forests > pine forests > bamboo forests. (5) Since this study considers only the factors available in the forest management inventory, which does not encompass all relevant influencing factors, it is difficult to fully address the complexities of how forest water conservation services interact with forest structure. Therefore, further research is needed to investigate the intrinsic mechanisms underlying the interactions between water conservation and forest management inventory factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]