1. Forecasting the reliability of wind-energy systems: A new approach using the RL technique
- Author
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Chaudhry, Nikhil and Hughes, Larry
- Subjects
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ELECTRIC power consumption forecasting , *RELIABILITY in engineering , *WIND power , *GREENHOUSE gases , *ELECTRIC power production , *RENEWABLE energy sources , *SIMULATION methods & models , *ENERGY consumption - Abstract
Abstract: Two of the most significant challenges in the 21st century will be to improve energy security and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy consumption. A co-beneficial solution to these challenges is seen as increasing the use of renewable energy for the production of electricity. Some renewable sources, such as wind are often presented as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; however, since wind’s variability increases uncertainty and risk in expected generation, it can be detrimental to energy security. One of the ways in which wind’s contribution to a jurisdiction’s energy security and greenhouse gas reduction strategies can be improved is to employ a forecasting method that can help reduce risks. This paper proposes a method that applies risk and reliability analysis techniques to obtain the most-likely RL (Resistance–Load) scenario using a set of historical data for wind-supply or generation and load. RL estimates the reliability of a wind-energy system by simulating an anticipated resistance (the electrical generation) attempting to meet a load (the electricity demand) for a future year. The method is demonstrated through a case study and its results are compared with real-time data from a 12MW wind farm to prove its efficacy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2012
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