Search

Increasing awareness that parasitism is an essential component of nearly all aspects of ecosystem functioning, as well as a driver of biodiversity, has led to rising interest in the consequences of climate change in terms of parasitism and disease spread. Yet empirical knowledge on the extent and ways in which climatic factors affect parasite prevalence and intensities remains scarce. In an 18-year, multi-site, correlative study we investigated the contributions of weather variables and other factors to spatio-temporal variation in infestation by blowfly parasitic larvae (Protocalliphora spp.) in nests of Corsican blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We found that ambient temperature during the nestling stage is strongly and positively related to parasite load (number of parasites per chick), both across broods when controlling for year, and across years. In addition, annual mean parasite load also increased with minimal spring temperature, and decreased with increasing average temperature in the previous summer. There was no indication of a dependence of parasite dynamics on host dynamics in this system, likely due in part to the wide host range of blowflies that do not solely rely on blue tit hosts. This suggests a major effect of temperature during the blowfly life cycle, with potential implications for blowfly host interactions across their geographical range as climate keeps warming up. Finally, given that ambient temperature increases throughout the breeding season and that blowflies negatively affect survival and recruitment of blue tits, these results also mean that parasites, along with caterpillar availability, can drive selection for breeding date in this system.

In a context of rapid climate change, the influence of large-scale and local climate on population demography is increasingly scrutinized, yet studies are usually focused on one population. Demographic parameters, including survival, can vary significantly across populations of a given species, depending on global or local climatic fluctuations but also on many other population-specific parameters such as breeding density, habitat naturalness, predation or parasitism. Such ecological differences between populations could lead to different paces-of-life (POL), whereby populations where individuals display higher reproductive investment and bolder behaviours would have lower survival probabilities. We use here long-term (19 to 38 years) monitoring datasets from four Mediterranean populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) to investigate the effects of sex, age class, large-scale and local climate temporal variation and population breeding density, on adult survival, using Capture-Mark-Recapture modelling. Environment heterogeneity in these four populations (two in evergreen and two in deciduous forests) has been linked to strong multi-trait phenotypic variation, suggesting blue tits in deciduous forests display faster POL compared to their conspecifics in evergreen habitats. The present results show heterogeneity in average survival probabilities across the four populations, with, as predicted, lower survival in the fast blue tits occupying deciduous habitats. Interestingly, the year-to-year variation in survival probabilities was synchronous among populations. This suggests that regional environmental conditions could drive survival fluctuations across populations. However, breeding densities were not correlated across populations, and we found no evidence that adult survival is correlated with either large-scale or local, climate temporal variation in these four blue tit populations. Finally, two of the focal populations displayed a linear temporal decrease in adult survival over the study period, calling for further investigation to explain this decline. Overall, this multi-site study shows that blue tit parental survival from one spring to the next can vary substantially across years, in a synchronous way across populations, yet the climate indices we used are not correlated with the temporal variation. This calls for further investigations in other potential drivers such as resource (in particular insect) abundance, predation or parasitism.

The slow-fast continuum is a commonly used framework to describe variation in life-history strategies across species. Individual life histories have also been assumed to follow a similar pattern, especially in the pace-of-life syndrome literature. However, whether a slow-fast continuum commonly explains life-history variation among individuals within a population remains unclear. Here, we formally tested for the presence of a slow-fast continuum of life histories both within populations and across species using detailed long-term individual-based demographic data for 17 bird and mammal species with markedly different life histories. We estimated adult lifespan, age at first reproduction, annual breeding frequency, and annual fecundity, and identified the main axes of life-history variation using principal component analyses. Across species, we retrieved the slow-fast continuum as the main axis of life-history variation. However, within populations, the patterns of individual life-history variation did not align with a slow-fast continuum in any species. Thus, a continuum ranking individuals from slow to fast living is unlikely to shape individual differences in life histories within populations. Rather, individual life-history variation is likely idiosyncratic across species, potentially because of processes such as stochasticity, density dependence, and individual differences in resource acquisition that affect species differently and generate non-generalizable patterns across species.

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

Urbanization is one of the most significant contributors to the Anthropocene, and urban evolutionary ecology has become an important field of research. While it is commonly assumed that cities impose new and stronger selection, the contradictory assertion that selection may be relaxed in cities is also frequently mentioned, and overall, our understanding of the effects of urbanization on natural selection is incomplete. In this review, we first conduct a literature search to find evidence for patterns of natural selection on phenotypic traits including morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history, in urban and non‐urban populations of animals and plants. This search reveals that coefficients of natural selection in the context of urbanization are scarce (n = 8 studies providing selection gradients/differentials that include a total of n = 200 coefficients) and a lack of standardized methods hinders quantitative comparisons across studies (e.g. with meta‐analysis). These studies, however, provide interesting insight on the agents shaping natural selection in cities and improve our mechanistic understanding of selection processes at different spatial scales. We then perform a second literature search to review genomic studies assessing selection intensity in cities, on the genome of non‐human natural populations. While this search returns 383 articles, only 34 of these truly investigate footprints of selection associated with urbanization, and only one study provides urban genetic selection coefficients. Here again, we find highly heterogeneous approaches, yet some studies provide strong evidence of genomic footprints of urban adaptation. In neither the phenotypic nor genomic literature review were we able to quantitatively assess natural selection across urban versus non‐urban habitats. Thus, we propose a roadmap of how future studies should provide standardized metrics to facilitate mega‐ or meta‐analyses and explore generalized effects of urbanization on selection. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of rapid climate change, phenological advance is a key adaptation for which evidence is accumulating across taxa. Among vertebrates, phenotypic plasticity is known to underlie most of this phenological change, while evidence for micro-evolution is very limited and challenging to obtain. In this study, we quantified phenotypic and genetic trends in timing of spring migration using 8,032 dates of arrival at the breeding grounds obtained from observations on 1,715 individual common terns (Sterna hirundo) monitored across 27 years, and tested whether these trends were consistent with predictions of a micro-evolutionary response to selection. We observed a strong phenotypic advance of 9.3 days in arrival date, of which c. 5% was accounted for by an advance in breeding values. The Breeder's equation and Robertson's Secondary Theorem of Selection predicted qualitatively similar evolutionary responses to selection, and these theoretical predictions were largely consistent with our estimated genetic pattern. Overall, our study provides rare evidence for micro-evolution underlying (part of) an adaptive response to climate change in the wild, and illustrates how a combination of adaptive micro-evolution and phenotypic plasticity facilitated a shift towards earlier spring migration in this free-living population of common terns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenotypic integration can be defined as the patterns and strength of the covariances between traits in an organism. The pace of life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis provides a testable case of phenotypic integration as it predicts that traits that mediate the trade-off between current and future reproduction should have coevolved with the slow-fast life-history continuum and may thus covary across individuals of a population. Although the POLS hypothesis has received increasing attention over the last decade, there is a need for investigating whether POLS are sex-specific and whether ornamental traits can be included within the POLS framework. We used 9 years of data to describe the integration patterns of ornamental coloration, personality, morphology, and life history in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and whether they differed between males and females. With that aim, we fitted multivariate mixed models separating the among- from the within-individual covariances. We found that the overall integration between the studied traits was weak, but our results suggested some sex-specific covariances at the among- and within-individual levels. Finally, using structural equation models (SEM), we tested for the presence of trait modules (i.e. covariances between traits involved in the same biological function) within each sex. SEMs suggested the presence of a morphological module but no modules for coloration or behavioral traits. Also, results obtained from the SEM did not support the POLS hypothesis. Overall, this work highlights the importance of considering sex when studying phenotypic integration and the relevance of SEM to test POLS hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]