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Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

Loss of peat through increased burning will have major impacts on the global carbon cycle. In a normal hydrological state, the risk of fire propagation is largely controlled by peat bulk density and moisture content. However, where humans have interfered with the moisture status of peat either via drainage, or indirectly via climate change, we hypothesise that its botanical composition will become important to flammability, such that peats from different latitudes might have different compositionally-driven susceptibility to ignition. We use pyrolysis combustion flow calorimetry to determine the temperature of maximum thermal decomposition (T max ) of peats from different latitudes, and couple this to a botanical composition analysis. We find that tropical peat has higher T max than other regions, likely on account of its higher wood content which appears to convey a greater resistance to ignition. This resistance also increases with depth, which means that loss of surface peat in tropical regions may lead to a reduction in the subsequent ignitability of deeper peat layers as they are exposed, potentially resulting in a negative feedback on increased fire occurrence and severity., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Climate warming is leading to permafrost thaw in northern peatlands, and current predictions suggest that thawing will drive greater surface wetness and an increase in methane emissions. Hydrology largely drives peatland vegetation composition, which is a key element in peatland functioning and thus in carbon dynamics. These processes are expected to change. Peatland carbon accumulation is determined by the balance between plant production and peat decomposition. But both processes are expected to accelerate in northern peatlands due to warming, leading to uncertainty in future peatland carbon budgets. Here, we compile a dataset of vegetation changes and apparent carbon accumulation data reconstructed from 33 peat cores collected from 16 sub-arctic peatlands in Fennoscandia and European Russia. The data cover the past two millennia that has undergone prominent changes in climate and a notable increase in annual temperatures toward present times. We show a pattern where European sub-Arctic peatland microhabitats have undergone a habitat change where currently drier habitats dominated by Sphagnum mosses replaced wetter sedge-dominated vegetation and these new habitats have remained relatively stable over the recent decades. Our results suggest an alternative future pathway where sub-arctic peatlands may at least partly sustain dry vegetation and enhance the carbon sink capacity of northern peatlands., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Changes in plant cover and productivity are important in driving Arctic soil carbon dynamics and sequestration, especially in peatlands. Warming trends in the Arctic are known to have resulted in changes in plant productivity, extent and community composition, but more data are still needed to improve understanding of the complex controls and processes involved. Here we assess plant productivity response to climate variability between 1985 and 2020 by comparing peak growing season NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index data from Landsat 5 and 7), to seasonal-average weather data (temperature, precipitation and snow-melt timing) in nine locations containing peatlands in high- and low-Arctic regions in Europe and Canada. We find that spring (correlation 0.36 for peat dominant and 0.39 for mosaic; MLR coefficient 0.20 for peat, 0.29 for mosaic), summer (0.47, 0.42; 0.18, 0.17) and preceding-autumn (0.35, 0.25; 0.33, 0.27) temperature are linked to peak growing season NDVI at our sites between 1985 and 2020, whilst spring snow melt timing (0.42, 0.45; 0.25, 0.32) is also important, and growing season water availability is likely site-specific. According to regression trees, a warm preceding autumn (September-October-November) is more important than a warm summer (June-July-August) in predicting the highest peak season productivity in the peat-dominated areas. Mechanisms linked to soil processes may explain the importance of previous-Autumn conditions on productivity. We further find that peak productivity increases in these Arctic peatlands are comparable to those in the surrounding non-peatland-dominant vegetation. Increased productivity in and around Arctic peatlands suggests a potential to increased soil carbon sequestration with future warming, but further work is needed to test whether this is evident in observations of recent peat accumulation and extent., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

When a peatland is drained and cultivated, it behaves as a notable source of CO 2 However, we lack temporally and spatially explicit estimates of carbon losses from cultivated peatlands. Using a process-based land surface model that explicitly includes representation of peatland processes, we estimate that northern peatlands converted to croplands emitted 72 Pg C over 850-2010, with 45% of this source having occurred before 1750. This source surpassed the carbon accumulation by high-latitude undisturbed peatlands (36 to 47 Pg C). Carbon losses from the cultivation of northern peatlands are omitted in previous land-use emission assessments. Adding this ignored historical land-use emission implies an 18% larger terrestrial carbon storage since 1750 to close the historical global carbon budget. We also show that carbon emission per unit area decrease with time since drainage, suggesting that time since drainage should be accounted for in inventories to refine land-use emissions from cultivated peatlands., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. While the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for preexisting human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with long transitional phases of landscape and socioeconomic change. Here, we use reconstructions of prehistoric sea-level rise, paleogeographies, terrestrial landscape change, and human population dynamics to show how the gradual inundation of an island archipelago resulted in decidedly nonlinear landscape and cultural responses to rising sea levels. Interpretation of past and future responses to sea-level change requires a better understanding of local physical and societal contexts to assess plausible human response patterns in the future., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).)

Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon (C) that contain a record of how their rates of C accumulation have changed over time. Recently, near-surface peat has been used to assess the effect of current land use practices on C accumulation rates in peatlands. However, the notion that accumulation rates in recently formed peat can be compared to those from older, deeper, peat is mistaken - continued decomposition means that the majority of newly added material will not become part of the long-term C store. Palaeoecologists have known for some time that high apparent C accumulation rates in recently formed peat are an artefact and take steps to account for it. Here we show, using a model, how the artefact arises. We also demonstrate that increased C accumulation rates in near-surface peat cannot be used to infer that a peatland as a whole is accumulating more C - in fact the reverse can be true because deep peat can be modified by events hundreds of years after it was formed. Our findings highlight that care is needed when evaluating recent C addition to peatlands especially because these interpretations could be wrongly used to inform land use policy and decisions.

Unicellular free-living microbial eukaryotes of the order Arcellinida (Tubulinea; Amoebozoa) and Euglyphida (Cercozoa; SAR), commonly termed testate amoebae, colonise almost every freshwater ecosystem on Earth. Patterns in the distribution and productivity of these organisms are strongly linked to abiotic conditions-particularly moisture availability and temperature-however, the ecological impacts of changes in salinity remain poorly documented. Here, we examine how variable salt concentrations affect a natural community of Arcellinida and Euglyphida on a freshwater sub-Antarctic peatland. We principally report that deposition of wind-blown oceanic salt-spray aerosols onto the peatland surface corresponds to a strong reduction in biomass and to an alteration in the taxonomic composition of communities in favour of generalist taxa. Our results suggest novel applications of this response as a sensitive tool to monitor salinisation of coastal soils and to detect salinity changes within peatland palaeoclimate archives. Specifically, we suggest that these relationships could be used to reconstruct millennial scale variability in salt-spray deposition-a proxy for changes in wind-conditions-from sub-fossil communities of Arcellinida and Euglyphida preserved in exposed coastal peatlands.

It is well established that in ombrotrophic bogs, water-table depth (WTD) is the primary environmental control on testate amoeba distribution. However, the environmental controls on testate amoebae in minerotrophic fens are less well known and successional change in their assemblages associated with fen-bog peatland development has been scarcely investigated. Here we investigate a peatland space-for-time sequence resulting from postglacial rebound on the west coast of Finland, to assess successional patterns in testate amoeba communities and their relationships with environmental variables during peatland development. Sample sites along a 10-km transect from coast to inland ranged from a recently emerged wet meadow to a mature bog. Environmental variables (e.g., peat thickness, carbon and nitrogen content, pH, WTD and vegetation) were measured alongside testate amoeba samples. Results showed that even though the distribution of testate amoebae was to some extent determined by the succession stage, many taxa had wide WTD and pH ranges. The primary environmental control for many taxa changed along the succession. In conclusion, the ecological constraints on testate amoebae in minerotrophic systems are more complex than in bogs. The detected patterns also complicate the use of testate amoebae as a primary proxy in palaeoecological reconstructions where fen-to-bog shifts occur., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)

Precise and sufficiently detailed morphological taxonomy is vital in biology, for example in the accurate interpretation of ecological and palaeoecological datasets, especially in polar regions, where biodiversity is poor. Testate amoebae on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are well-documented and variations in their population size have recently been interpreted as a proxy for microbial productivity changes in response to recent regional climate change. AP testate amoeba assemblages are dominated by a small number of globally ubiquitous taxa. We examine morphological variation in Corythion spp. across the AP, finding clear evidence supporting the presence of two morphospecies. Corythion constricta (Certes 1889) was identified on the AP for the first time and has potentially been previously misidentified. Furthermore, a southerly trend of decreasing average test size in Corythion dubium (Taránek 1881) along the AP suggests adaptive polymorphism, although the precise drivers of this remain unclear, with analysis hindered by limited environmental data. Further work into morphological variation in Corythion is needed elsewhere, alongside molecular analyses, to evaluate the potential for (pseudo)cryptic diversity within the genus. We advocate a parsimonious taxonomical approach that recognises genetic diversity but also examines and develops accurate morphological divisions and descriptions suitable for light microscopy-based ecological and palaeoecological studies., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.)

Recent climate change on the Antarctic Peninsula is well documented [1-5], with warming, alongside increases in precipitation, wind strength, and melt season length [1, 6, 7], driving environmental change [8, 9]. However, meteorological records mostly began in the 1950s, and paleoenvironmental datasets that provide a longer-term context to recent climate change are limited in number and often from single sites [7] and/or discontinuous in time [10, 11]. Here we use moss bank cores from a 600-km transect from Green Island (65.3°S) to Elephant Island (61.1°S) as paleoclimate archives sensitive to regional temperature change, moderated by water availability and surface microclimate [12, 13]. Mosses grow slowly, but cold temperatures minimize decomposition, facilitating multi-proxy analysis of preserved peat [14]. Carbon isotope discrimination (Δ 13 C) in cellulose indicates the favorability of conditions for photosynthesis [15]. Testate amoebae are representative heterotrophs in peatlands [16-18], so their populations are an indicator of microbial productivity [14]. Moss growth and mass accumulation rates represent the balance between growth and decomposition [19]. Analyzing these proxies in five cores at three sites over 150 years reveals increased biological activity over the past ca. 50 years, in response to climate change. We identified significant changepoints in all sites and proxies, suggesting fundamental and widespread changes in the terrestrial biosphere. The regional sensitivity of moss growth to past temperature rises suggests that terrestrial ecosystems will alter rapidly under future warming, leading to major changes in the biology and landscape of this iconic region-an Antarctic greening to parallel well-established observations in the Arctic [20]., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Carbon release from thawing permafrost soils could significantly exacerbate global warming as the active-layer deepens, exposing more carbon to decay. Plant community and soil properties provide a major control on this by influencing the maximum depth of thaw each summer (active-layer thickness; ALT), but a quantitative understanding of the relative importance of plant and soil characteristics, and their interactions in determine ALTs, is currently lacking. To address this, we undertook an extensive survey of multiple vegetation and edaphic characteristics and ALTs across multiple plots in four field sites within boreal forest in the discontinuous permafrost zone (NWT, Canada). Our sites included mature black spruce, burned black spruce and paper birch, allowing us to determine vegetation and edaphic drivers that emerge as the most important and broadly applicable across these key vegetation and disturbance gradients, as well as providing insight into site-specific differences. Across sites, the most important vegetation characteristics limiting thaw (shallower ALTs) were tree leaf area index (LAI), moss layer thickness and understory LAI in that order. Thicker soil organic layers also reduced ALTs, though were less influential than moss thickness. Surface moisture (0-6 cm) promoted increased ALTs, whereas deeper soil moisture (11-16 cm) acted to modify the impact of the vegetation, in particular increasing the importance of understory or tree canopy shading in reducing thaw. These direct and indirect effects of moisture indicate that future changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration may have large influences on ALTs. Our work also suggests that forest fires cause greater ALTs by simultaneously decreasing multiple ecosystem characteristics which otherwise protect permafrost. Given that vegetation and edaphic characteristics have such clear and large influences on ALTs, our data provide a key benchmark against which to evaluate process models used to predict future impacts of climate warming on permafrost degradation and subsequent feedback to climate., (© 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The stable isotope compositions of moss tissue water (δ(2)H and δ(18)O) and cellulose (δ(13)C and δ(18)O), and testate amoebae populations were sampled from 61 contemporary surface samples along a 600-km latitudinal gradient of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) to provide a spatial record of environmental change. The isotopic composition of moss tissue water represented an annually integrated precipitation signal with the expected isotopic depletion with increasing latitude. There was a weak, but significant, relationship between cellulose δ(18)O and latitude, with predicted source water inputs isotopically enriched compared to measured precipitation. Cellulose δ(13)C values were dependent on moss species and water content, and may reflect site exposure to strong winds. Testate amoebae assemblages were characterised by low concentrations and taxonomic diversity, with Corythion dubium and Microcorycia radiata types the most cosmopolitan taxa. The similarity between the intra- and inter-site ranges measured in all proxies suggests that microclimate and micro-topographical conditions around the moss surface were important determinants of proxy values. Isotope and testate amoebae analyses have proven value as palaeoclimatic, temporal proxies of climate change, whereas this study demonstrates that variations in isotopic and amoeboid proxies between microsites can be beyond the bounds of the current spatial variability in AP climate.

Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. (14)C or (10)Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40-100 years, and 120-140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.

Tropical peatlands represent globally important carbon sinks with a unique biodiversity and are currently threatened by climate change and human activities. It is now imperative that proxy methods are developed to understand the ecohydrological dynamics of these systems and for testing peatland development models. Testate amoebae have been used as environmental indicators in ecological and palaeoecological studies of peatlands, primarily in ombrotrophic Sphagnum-dominated peatlands in the mid- and high-latitudes. We present the first ecological analysis of testate amoebae in a tropical peatland, a nutrient-poor domed bog in western (Peruvian) Amazonia. Litter samples were collected from different hydrological microforms (hummock to pool) along a transect from the edge to the interior of the peatland. We recorded 47 taxa from 21 genera. The most common taxa are Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda type, Phryganella acropodia, Pseudodifflugia fulva type and Trinema lineare. One species found only in the southern hemisphere, Argynnia spicata, is present. Arcella spp., Centropyxis aculeata and Lesqueresia spiralis are indicators of pools containing standing water. Canonical correspondence analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling illustrate that water table depth is a significant control on the distribution of testate amoebae, similar to the results from mid- and high-latitude peatlands. A transfer function model for water table based on weighted averaging partial least-squares (WAPLS) regression is presented and performs well under cross-validation (r(2)(apparent)= 0.76, RMSE = 4.29; r(2)(jack)= 0.68, RMSEP =5.18). The transfer function was applied to a 1-m peat core, and sample-specific reconstruction errors were generated using bootstrapping. The reconstruction generally suggests near-surface water tables over the last 3,000 years, with a shift to drier conditions at c. cal. 1218-1273 AD.

Annual temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula, one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, have risen by up to 0.56°C per decade since the 1950s. Terrestrial and marine organisms have shown changes in populations and distributions over this time, suggesting that the ecology of the Antarctic Peninsula is changing rapidly. However, these biological records are shorter in length than the meteorological data, and observed population changes cannot be securely linked to longer-term trends apparent in paleoclimate data. We developed a unique time series of past moss growth and soil microbial activity from a 150-year-old moss bank at the southern limit of significant plant growth based on accumulation rates, cellulose δ(13)C, and fossil testate amoebae. We show that growth rates and microbial productivity have risen rapidly since the 1960s, consistent with temperature changes, although recently they may have stalled. The recent increase in terrestrial plant growth rates and soil microbial activity are unprecedented in the last 150 years and are consistent with climate change. Future changes in terrestrial biota are likely to track projected temperature increases closely and will fundamentally change the ecology and appearance of the Antarctic Peninsula., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Peatlands subjected to sulfate deposition have been shown to produce less methane, believed to be due to competitive exclusion of methanogenic archaea by sulfate-reducing bacteria. Here, we address whether sulfate deposition produces impacts on a higher microbial group, the testate amoebae. Sodium sulfate was applied to experimental plots on a Scottish peatland and samples extracted after a period of more than 10 years. Impacts on testate amoebae were tested using redundancy analysis and Mann-Whitney tests. Results showed statistically significant impacts on amoebae communities particularly noted by decreased abundance of Trinema lineare, Corythion dubium, and Euglypha rotunda. As the species most reduced in abundance are all small bacterivores we suggest that our results support the hypothesis of a shift in dominant prokaryotes, although other explanations are possible. Our results demonstrate the sensitivity of peatland microbial communities to sulfate deposition and suggest sulfate may be a potentially important secondary control on testate amoebae communities.

Relationships between species abundance and water table depth and soil moisture have been modeled using weighted averaging and species niches have been calculated as optima and tolerance for these parameters. Niche separation of closely related taxa has been examined in detail and it has been shown that there is often a gradient of hydrological preference within each taxon. Wet to dry gradients include those found in the Trigionopyxis arcula group (T. arcula var. major > T. arcula > T. minuta), Assulina-Valkanovia group (A. seminulum > A. muscorum > V. elegans), and Trinema lineare group (T. lineare var. truncatum/T. lioneare > T. lineare var. terricola), all of which are associated with a large to small size gradient. In addition, spined forms within the Euglypha and Placocista genera have been shown to consistently occur in wetter habitats than glabrous forms of those with shorter spines. A conclusion has been drawn that palaeoecological studies should cover the lowest taxa possible within these groups to maximize the ecological indicator value of the assemblages recorded.

Testate amoebae (Protozoa: Rhizopoda) are frequently used as indicators of past environmental changes, and the interpretation of fossil assemblages depends upon our knowledge of ecological affinities of taxa in modern environments. A variety of taxonomic approaches have been used in fossil studies, mostly involving grouping of closely related taxa. This paper presents data from peatlands in western Russia relating surface wetness parameters to species occurrence. Relationships between species abundance, water table depth and soil moisture are modelled using weighted averaging, and species niches are calculated as optima and tolerance for these parameters. Niche separation of closely related taxa is examined in detail and it is shown that there is often a gradient of hydrological preference within each group of taxa. Wet to dry gradients include those found in the Trigonopyxis arcula group (T. arcula var. major > T. arcula > T. minuta), the Assulina-Valkanovia group (A. seminulum > A. muscorum > V. elegans), and the Trinema lineare group (T. lineare var. truncatum/ T. lineare > T. lineare var. terricola), all of which are associated with a large to small size gradient. In addition, spined forms within the Euglypha and Placocista genera are shown to consistently occur in wetter habitats than glabrous forms or those with shorter spines. It is concluded that palaeoecological studies should attempt the lowest taxonomic divisions possible within these groups, to maximise the ecological indicator value of the assemblages recorded.

The vegetation history of an important conservation area, the Flow Country in northern Scotland, is described using the results of pollen analysis from two closely spaced cores from the Cross Lochs, eastern Sutherland. Buried lake sediments and shallower surface peats yield a continuous record covering the Devensian Late-glacial and the Holocene. The earliest Late-glacial pollen spectra recovered suggest a transition from open habitat to more stable communities, dominated by *Empetrum heath. This Windermere Interstadial vegetation shows some variability, with a phase of increased growth of juniper and birch, followed by deteriorating climate and less stable soil conditions in the transition to the Stadial, with Huperzia selago and Salix. There are poorly defined Loch Lomond Stadial and Stadial-Holocene transition periods, characterized by Rumex/Oxyria, after which much warmer, Holocene conditions occur, with a succession of birch-juniper and birch-hazel woodland. Birch persists in small amounts locally, but the presence of other arboreal pollen is thought to be mostly due to long distance pollen transport. From c. 5500 BP, the landscape is largely treeless, apart from a brief phase of local pine forest c 4500-4000 BP. These changes are compared with other pollen records for northern Scotland. The trends in the Late-glacial vegetation are broadly similar to those displayed by other sites, although many of the changes appear to be less extreme than for areas to the south and west. The lack of Artemisia during the Loch Lomond Stadial in the east Sutherland and Caithness area is particularly noteworthy. This may imply more extensive snow cover. The early Holocene is similar to the rest of northern Scotland, but invasion of Betula was more rapid and the later growth of this genus and hazel was not so dense. The lack of pine in the early Holocene allies the site with eastern Caithness and the Northern Isles, rather than north-west Scotland and the Grampians. It is suggested that the effects of early human populations on such marginal forest areas may have been underestimated in the past. The paradoxical existence of pine macrofossils with no pollen evidence in several areas of Scotland is explained, at least in part, by the lack of temporal precision of pollen diagrams rather than by low pollen productivity, extremely localized occurrences of the species or strong prevailing winds.