Search

The well-known agreement interval by Bland and Altman is extensively applied in method comparison studies. Two clinical measurement methods are considered interchangeable if their differences are not clinically significant. The agreement interval is commonly applied to assess the spread of the differences. However, this interval is approximate (too narrow) and several authors propose calculating a confidence interval around each bound. This article demonstrates that this approach is misleading, awkward, and confusing. On the other hand, tolerance intervals are exact and can include a confidence level if needed. Tolerance intervals are also easier to calculate and to interpret. Real data sets are used to illustrate the tolerance intervals with the R package BivRegBLS under normal or log-normal assumptions. Furthermore, it is also explained how to assess the coverage probabilities of the tolerance intervals with simulations.

Background: There is great interest in widening the use of high-sensitivity cardiac troponins for population cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure screening. However, it is not clear whether cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and troponin I (cTnI) are equivalent measures of risk in this setting. We aimed to compare and contrast (1) the association of cTnT and cTnI with CVD and non-CVD outcomes, and (2) their determinants in a genome-wide association study. Methods: High-sensitivity cTnT and cTnI were measured in serum from 19 501 individuals in Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study. Median follow-up was 7.8 years (quartile 1 to quartile 3, 7.1–9.2). Associations of each troponin with a composite CVD outcome (1177 events), CVD death (n=266), non-CVD death (n=374), and heart failure (n=216) were determined by using Cox models. A genome-wide association study was conducted using a standard approach developed for the cohort. Results: Both cTnI and cTnT were strongly associated with CVD risk in unadjusted models. After adjusting for classical risk factors, the hazard ratio for a 1 SD increase in log transformed troponin was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.17–1.32) and 1.11 (1.04–1.19) for cTnI and cTnT, respectively; ratio of hazard ratios 1.12 (1.04–1.21). cTnI, but not cTnT, was associated with myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease. Both cTnI and cTnT had strong associations with CVD death and heart failure. By contrast, cTnT, but not cTnI, was associated with non-CVD death; ratio of hazard ratios 0.77 (0.67–0.88). We identified 5 loci (53 individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms) that had genome-wide significant associations with cTnI, and a different set of 4 loci (4 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) for cTnT. Conclusions: The upstream genetic causes of low-grade elevations in cTnI and cTnT appear distinct, and their associations with outcomes also differ. Elevations in cTnI are more strongly associated with some CVD outcomes, whereas cTnT is more strongly associated with the risk of non-CVD death. These findings help inform the selection of an optimal troponin assay for future clinical care and research in this setting.

Aims: We investigated the association between quantified metabolite, lipid and lipoprotein measures and incident heart failure hospitalisation (HFH) in the elderly, and examined whether circulating metabolic measures improve HFH prediction. Methods and results: Overall, 80 metabolic measures from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) trial were measured by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 5341; 182 HFH events during 2.7-year follow-up). We repeated the work in FINRISK 1997 (n = 7330; 133 HFH events during 5-year follow-up). In PROSPER, the circulating concentrations of 13 metabolic measures were found to be significantly different in those who were later hospitalised for heart failure after correction for multiple comparisons. These included creatinine, phenylalanine, glycoprotein acetyls, 3-hydroxybutyrate, and various high-density lipoprotein measures. In Cox models, two metabolites were associated with risk of HFH after adjustment for clinical risk factors and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP): phenylalanine [hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10–1.53; P = 0.002] and acetate (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68–0.98; P = 0.026). Both were retained in the final model after backward elimination. Compared to a model with established risk factors and NT-proBNP, this model did not improve the C-index but did improve the overall continuous net reclassification index (NRI 0.21; 95% CI 0.06–0.35; P = 0.007) due to improvement in classification of non-cases (NRI 0.14; 95% CI 0.12–0.17; P

Due to the invincibility nature of cyber attacks on the cyber supply chain (CSC), and the cascading effects ofmalware infections, we use machine learning to predictattacks. As organizations have become more reliant on CSC systems for business continuity, so are the increase invulnerabilities and the threat landscapes. Some traditionalapproach to detecting and defending malware attack haslargely been antimalware or antivirus software such as spam filters, firewall, and IDS/IPS. These tools largelysucceed, however, as threat actors get more intelligent, theyare able to circumvent and affect nodes on systems which then propagates. In our previous work, we characterizedthreat actor activities, including presumed intent and historically observed behaviour, for the purpose of ascertaining the current threats that could be exploited. Inthis paper, we use ML techniques to learn dataset and predict which CSC nodes have detection or no detection. The purpose is to predict which modes are venerable to cyberattacks and for predicting future trends. Todemonstrate the applicability of our approach, we used adataset from Microsoft Malware Prediction website. Further, an ensemble is used to link Logistic Regression, and Decision Tree and SVM algorithms in Majority Votingand run on the training data and then use 10-fold crossvalidation to test the parameter estimation, accurate results and predictions. The results show that ML algorithms in Decision Trees methods can be used in cyber supply chainpredict analytics to detect and predict future cyber attacktrends.

Aim Rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) experience physical deterioration and reductions in their quality of life. This feasibility study assessed prehabilitation (a walking intervention) before, during and after NACRT to inform a definitive multi-centred randomized clinical trial (REx trial). Methods Patients planned for NACRT followed by potentially curative surgery were approached (August 2014-March 2016) (www.isrctn.com; 62859294). Prior to NACRT, baseline physical and psycho-social data were recorded using validated tools. Participants were randomized to either the intervention group (exercise counselling session followed by a 13-17 week telephone-guided walking programme) or a control group (standard care). Follow-up testing was undertaken 1-2 weeks before surgery. Results Of the 296 screened patients, 78 (26%) were eligible and 48 (61%) were recruited. N = 31 (65%) were men with a mean age of 65.9 years (range 33.7-82.6). Mean intervention duration was 14 weeks with 75% adherence. n = 40 (83%) completed follow-up testing. Both groups recorded reductions in daily walking but the reduction was less in the intervention group although not statistically significant. Participants reported high satisfaction and fidelity to trial procedures. Conclusion This study demonstrates that prehabilitation is feasible in rectal cancer patients undergoing NACRT. Good recruitment, adherence, retention and patient satisfaction rates support the development of a fully powered trial. The effects of the intervention on physical outcomes were promising.

Summary Background Late-stage isolated medial knee osteoarthritis can be treated with total knee replacement (TKR) or partial knee replacement (PKR). There is high variation in treatment choice and little robust evidence to guide selection. The Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT) therefore aims to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of TKR versus PKR in patients with medial compartment osteoarthritis of the knee, and this represents an analysis of the main endpoints at 5 years. Methods Our multicentre, pragmatic randomised controlled trial was done at 27 UK sites. We used a combined expertise-based and equipoise-based approach, in which patients with isolated osteoarthritis of the medial compartment of the knee and who satisfied general requirements for a medial PKR were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive PKR or TKR by surgeons who were either expert in and willing to perform both surgeries or by a surgeon with particular expertise in the allocated procedure. The primary endpoint was the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) 5 years after randomisation in all patients assigned to groups. Health-care costs (in UK 2017 prices) and cost-effectiveness were also assessed. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN03013488) and ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT01352247 ). Findings Between Jan 18, 2010, and Sept 30, 2013, we assessed 962 patients for their eligibility, of whom 431 (45%) patients were excluded (121 [13%] patients did not meet the inclusion criteria and 310 [32%] patients declined to participate) and 528 (55%) patients were randomly assigned to groups. 94% of participants responded to the follow-up survey 5 years after their operation. At the 5-year follow-up, we found no difference in OKS between groups (mean difference 1·04, 95% CI −0·42 to 2·50; p=0·159). In our within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis, we found that PKR was more effective (0·240 additional quality-adjusted life-years, 95% CI 0·046 to 0·434) and less expensive (−£910, 95% CI −1503 to −317) than TKR during the 5 years of follow-up. This finding was a result of slightly better outcomes, lower costs of surgery, and lower follow-up health-care costs with PKR than TKR. Interpretation Both TKR and PKR are effective, offer similar clinical outcomes, and result in a similar incidence of re-operations and complications. Based on our clinical findings, and results regarding the lower costs and better cost-effectiveness with PKR during the 5-year study period, we suggest that PKR should be considered the first choice for patients with late-stage isolated medial compartment osteoarthritis. Funding National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Cardiac troponin T and troponin I in the general population: contrasting genetic determinants and outcomes, BACKGROUND: Few data compare cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in a general population. We sought to evaluate the distribution and association between cTnT, cTnI, and cardiovascular risk factors in a large general population cohort.METHODS: High-sensitivity cTnT and cTnI were measured in serum from 19501 individuals in the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study. Associations with cardiovascular risk factors were compared using age- and sex-adjusted regression. Observed age- and sex-stratified 99th centiles were compared with 99th centiles for cTnT (men, 15.5 ng/L; women, 9.0 ng/L) and cTnI (men, 34.2 ng/L; women, 15.6 ng/L) used in clinical practice.RESULTS: cTnT and cTnI concentrations were detectable in 53.3% and 74.8% of participants, respectively, and were modestly correlated in unadjusted analyses (R2 = 21.3%) and only weakly correlated after adjusting for age and sex (R2 = 9.5%). Cardiovascular risk factors were associated with both troponins, but in age- and sex-adjusted analyses, cTnI was more strongly associated with age, male sex, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure (P ≺ 0.0001 for all vs cTnT). cTnT was more strongly associated with diabetes (P ≺ 0.0001 vs cTnI). The observed 99th centiles were broadly consistent with recommended 99th centiles in younger men and women. After the age of 60 years, observed 99th centiles increased substantially for cTnT, and beyond 70 years of age, the 99th centiles approximately doubled for both troponins.CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, cTnT and cTnI concentrations are weakly correlated and are differentially associated with cardiovascular risk factors. The 99th centiles currently in use are broadly appropriate for men and women up to but not beyond the age of 60 years.

Background/AimsTo assess the diagnostic performance of retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) data of optical coherence tomography (OCT) for detecting glaucoma.MethodsSecondary analyses of a prospective, multicentre diagnostic study (Glaucoma Automated Tests Evaluation (GATE)) referred to hospital eye services in the UK were conducted. We included data from 899 of 966 participants referred to hospital eye services with suspected glaucoma or ocular hypertension. We used both eyes’ data and logistic regression-based receiver operator characteristics analysis to build a set of models to measure the sensitivity and specificity of the average and inferior quadrant RNFL thickness data of OCT. The reference standard was expert clinician examination including automated perimetry. The main outcome measures were sensitivity at 0.95 specificity and specificity at 0.95 sensitivity and the corresponding RNFL thickness thresholds. We explored the possibility of accuracy improvement by adding measures of within-eye and between-eye variation, scan quality, intraocular pressure (IOP) and age.ResultsGlaucoma was diagnosed in at least one eye in 17% of participants. Areas under the curve were between 0.83 and 0.88. When specificity was fixed at 0.95, the sensitivity was between 0.38 and 0.55, and the highest values were reached with models including the inferior quadrant rather than the average RNFL thickness. Fixing sensitivity at 0.95, the specificity was between 0.36 and 0.58. The addition of age, refractive error, IOP or within-subject variation did not improve the accuracy.ConclusionRNFL thickness data of OCT can be used as a diagnostic test, but accuracy estimates remain moderate even in exploratory multivariable modelling of aiming to improve accuracy.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Both statins and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors lower blood low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels to reduce risk of cardiovascular events. To assess potential differences between metabolic effects of these 2 lipid-lowering therapies, we performed detailed lipid and metabolite profiling of a large randomized statin trial and compared the results with the effects of genetic inhibition of PCSK9, acting as a naturally occurring trial. Methods: Two hundred twenty-eight circulating metabolic measures were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, including lipoprotein subclass concentrations and their lipid composition, fatty acids, and amino acids, for 5359 individuals (2659 on treatment) in the PROSPER (Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk) trial at 6 months postrandomization. The corresponding metabolic measures were analyzed in 8 population cohorts (N=72 185) using PCSK9 rs11591147 as an unconfounded proxy to mimic the therapeutic effects of PCSK9 inhibitors. Results: Scaled to an equivalent lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the effects of genetic inhibition of PCSK9 on 228 metabolic markers were generally consistent with those of statin therapy (R2=0.88). Alterations in lipoprotein lipid composition and fatty acid distribution were similar. However, discrepancies were observed for very-low-density lipoprotein lipid measures. For instance, genetic inhibition of PCSK9 had weaker effects on lowering of very-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol compared with statin therapy (54% versus 77% reduction, relative to the lowering effect on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; P=2×10-7 for heterogeneity). Genetic inhibition of PCSK9 showed no significant effects on amino acids, ketones, or a marker of inflammation (GlycA), whereas statin treatment weakly lowered GlycA levels. Conclusions: Genetic inhibition of PCSK9 had similar metabolic effects to statin therapy on detailed lipid and metabolite profiles. However, PCSK9 inhibitors are predicted to have weaker effects on very-low-density lipoprotein lipids compared with statins for an equivalent lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, which potentially translate into smaller reductions in cardiovascular disease risk.

Purpose: To investigate if final year medical students undertaking an OSCE station at a later stage during examination diet were advantaged over their peers who undertook the same station at an earlier stage, and whether any such effect varies by the student’s relative academic standing.\ud \ud Methods: OSCE data from six consecutive final year cohorts totaling 1505 students was analyzed. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to model factors associated with the probability of passing each individual station (random effects for students and circuits; and fixed effects to assess the association with day of examination, time of day, gender and year).\ud \ud Results: Weaker students were more likely to pass if they took their OSCE later in the examination period. The odds of passing a station increased daily by 20%. Overall, the mean number of stations passed by each student increased over the 5 days.\ud \ud Conclusions: Students undertaking the same OSCE stations later in examination period statistically had higher chances of passing compared to their peers, and the weaker students appear to be particularly advantaged. These findings have major implications for OSCE design, to ensure students are not advantaged by examination timing, and weaker students are not “passing in error”.

Background Observational studies suggest that the Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision rule can effectively ‘rule out’ and ‘rule in’ acute coronary syndromes (ACS) following a single blood test. In a pilot randomised controlled trial, we aimed to determine whether a large trial is feasible.\ud \ud Methods Patients presenting to two EDs with suspected cardiac chest pain were randomised to receive care guided by the MACS decision rule (intervention group) or standard care (controls). The primary efficacy outcome was a successful discharge from the ED, defined as a decision to discharge within 4 hours of arrival providing that the patient did not have a missed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or develop a major adverse cardiac event (MACE: death, AMI or coronary revascularisation) within 30 days. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment and attrition rates.\ud \ud Results In total, 138 patients were included between October 2013 and October 2014, of whom 131 (95%) were randomised (66 to intervention and 65 controls). Nine (7%) patients had prevalent AMI and six (5%) had incident MACE within 30 days. All 131 patients completed 30-day follow-up and were included in the final analysis with no missing data for the primary analyses. Compared with standard care, a significantly greater proportion of patients whose care was guided by the MACS rule were successfully discharged within 4 hours (26% vs 8%, adjusted OR 5.45, 95% CI 1.73 to 17.11, p=0.004). No patients in either group who were discharged within 4 hours had a diagnosis of AMI or incident MACE within 30 days (0.0%, 95% CI 0% to 20.0% in the intervention group).\ud \ud Conclusions In this pilot trial, use of the MACS rule led to a significant increase in safe discharges from the ED but a larger, fully powered trial remains necessary. Our findings seem to support the feasibility of that trial.\ud \ud Trial registration number ISRCTN 86818215.\ud \ud Research Ethics Committee reference: 13/NW/0081.\ud \ud UKCRN registration ID:14334.

BACKGROUND High-sensitivity assays can quantify cardiac troponins I and T (hs-cTnI, hs-cTnT) in individuals with no clinically manifest myocardial injury. OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to assess associations of cardiac troponin concentration with cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes in primary prevention studies. METHODS A search was conducted of PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE for prospective studies published up to September 2016, reporting on associations of cardiac troponin concentration with first-ever CVD outcomes (i.e., coronary heart disease [CHD], stroke, or the combination of both). Study-specific estimates, adjusted for conventional risk factors, were extracted by 2 independent reviewers, supplemented with de novo data from PROSPER (Pravastatin in Elderly Individuals at Risk of Vascular Disease Study), then pooled by using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS A total of 28 relevant studies were identified involving 154,052 participants. Cardiac troponin was detectable in 80.0% (hs-cTnI: 82.6%; hs-cTnT: 69.7%). In PROSPER, positive associations of log-linear shape were observed between hs-cTnT and CVD outcomes. In the meta-analysis, the relative risks comparing the top versus the bottom troponin third were 1.43 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31 to 1.56) for CVD (11,763 events), 1.67 (95% CI: 1.50 to 1.86) for fatal CVD (7,775 events), 1.59 (95% CI: 1.38 to 1.83) for CHD (7,061 events), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.48) for stroke (2,526 events). For fatal CVD, associations were stronger in North American studies (p = 0.010) and those measuring hs-cTnT rather than hs-cTnI (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS In the general population, high cardiac troponin concentration within the normal range is associated with increased CVD risk. This association is independent of conventional risk factors, strongest for fatal CVD, and applies to both CHD and stroke. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Aims: \ud Benefits of routine depression screening for cardiometabolic disease patients remain unclear. We examined the association between depression screening and all-cause mortality and vascular events in cardiometabolic disease patients.\ud Methods and results: \ud 125 143 patients with cardiometabolic diseases (coronary heart disease, diabetes or previous stroke) in the UK participated in primary care chronic disease management in 2008/09, which included depression screening using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score. 10 670 receiving depression treatment exempted, 35 537 screened, while 78 936 not screened. We studied all-cause mortality and vascular events at 4 years, by electronic data linkage of 124 414 patients (99.4%) on primary care registers to hospital discharge and mortality records and used Cox proportional hazards on matched data using propensity score. Mean age for the screened and not screened population was 69 years (standard deviation—SD 11.9) and 67 years (SD 14.3), respectively; 58% (20 658) of the screened population were men and 65.3% (22 726) were socioeconomically deprived, compared with 54.2% (42 727) and 67.4% (51 686), respectively, in the not screened population. The screened population had lower all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio—HR 0.89) and vascular events (HR 0.85) in the matched data of N = 21 893 patients each in the screened and the unscreened groups.\ud Conclusion: \ud Depression screening was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality and vascular events in patients with cardiometabolic diseases. The uptake of screening was poor for unknown reasons. Reverse causality and confounding by disease severity and quality of care are important possible limitations. Further research to determine reproducibility and explore underlying mechanisms is merited.

Dear SirBefore this study was carried out we did introduce some changes to the differing days, e.g. by changing patients or X-rays for example but a balance is required between reducing the impact ...

Dear SirAlthough rapport, safety and professionalism are assessed to some extent and we are looking to improve on this in the future, these aspects alone are not enough to pass a station. Students ...

Contains fulltext : 126103.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) In the UK, prostate cancer (PC) is the most common cancer in men. A diagnosis can be confirmed only following a prostate biopsy. Many men find themselves with an elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and a negative biopsy. The best way to manage these men remains uncertain.To assess the diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques [dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI), diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI)] and the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies involving their use in aiding the localisation of prostate abnormalities for biopsy in patients with prior negative biopsy who remain clinically suspicious for harbouring malignancy.Databases searched--MEDLINE (1946 to March 2012), MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (March 2012), EMBASE (1980 to March 2012), Bioscience Information Service (BIOSIS; 1995 to March 2012), Science Citation Index (SCI; 1995 to March 2012), The Cochrane Library (Issue 3 2012), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE; March 2012), Medion (March 2012) and Health Technology Assessment database (March 2012).Types of studies: direct studies/randomised controlled trials reporting diagnostic outcomes. Index tests: MRS, DCE-MRI and DW-MRI. Comparators: T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (T2-MRI), transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUS/Bx). Reference standard: histopathological assessment of biopsied tissue. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative MRS/MRI sequences to direct TRUS-guided biopsies compared with systematic extended-cores TRUS-guided biopsies. A health service provider perspective was adopted and the recommended 3.5\% discount rate was applied to costs and outcomes.A total of 51 studies were included. In pooled estimates, sensitivity [95\% confidence interval (CI)] was highest for MRS (92\%; 95\% CI 86\% to 95\%). Specificity was highest for TRUS (imaging test) (81\%; 95\% CI 77\% to 85\%). Lifetime costs ranged from £3895 using systematic TRUS-guided biopsies to £4056 using findings on T2-MRI or DCE-MRI to direct biopsies (60-year-old cohort, cancer prevalence 24\%). The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for T2-MRI was

Purpose\ud \ud To compare the diagnostic performance of automated imaging for glaucoma.\ud \ud Design\ud \ud Prospective, direct comparison study.\ud \ud Participants\ud \ud Adults with suspected glaucoma or ocular hypertension referred to hospital eye services in the United Kingdom.\ud \ud Methods\ud \ud We evaluated 4 automated imaging test algorithms: the Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRT; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg, Germany) glaucoma probability score (GPS), the HRT Moorfields regression analysis (MRA), scanning laser polarimetry (GDx enhanced corneal compensation; Glaucoma Diagnostics (GDx), Carl Zeiss Meditec, Dublin, CA) nerve fiber indicator (NFI), and Spectralis optical coherence tomography (OCT; Heidelberg Engineering) retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) classification. We defined abnormal tests as an automated classification of outside normal limits for HRT and OCT or NFI ≥ 56 (GDx). We conducted a sensitivity analysis, using borderline abnormal image classifications. The reference standard was clinical diagnosis by a masked glaucoma expert including standardized clinical assessment and automated perimetry. We analyzed 1 eye per patient (the one with more advanced disease). We also evaluated the performance according to severity and using a combination of 2 technologies.\ud \ud Main Outcome Measures\ud \ud Sensitivity and specificity, likelihood ratios, diagnostic, odds ratio, and proportion of indeterminate tests.\ud \ud Results\ud \ud We recruited 955 participants, and 943 were included in the analysis. The average age was 60.5 years (standard deviation, 13.8 years); 51.1% were women. Glaucoma was diagnosed in at least 1 eye in 16.8%; 32% of participants had no glaucoma-related findings. The HRT MRA had the highest sensitivity (87.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 80.2%–92.1%), but lowest specificity (63.9%; 95% CI, 60.2%–67.4%); GDx had the lowest sensitivity (35.1%; 95% CI, 27.0%–43.8%), but the highest specificity (97.2%; 95% CI, 95.6%–98.3%). The HRT GPS sensitivity was 81.5% (95% CI, 73.9%–87.6%), and specificity was 67.7% (95% CI, 64.2%–71.2%); OCT sensitivity was 76.9% (95% CI, 69.2%–83.4%), and specificity was 78.5% (95% CI, 75.4%–81.4%). Including only eyes with severe glaucoma, sensitivity increased: HRT MRA, HRT GPS, and OCT would miss 5% of eyes, and GDx would miss 21% of eyes. A combination of 2 different tests did not improve the accuracy substantially.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud \ud Automated imaging technologies can aid clinicians in diagnosing glaucoma, but may not replace current strategies because they can miss some cases of severe glaucoma.

We systematically reviewed the randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence for long-term (≥12 months) weight management interventions for obese men in contrast to women to help understand whether programmes should be designed differently for men. We searched 11 databases up to October 2014. Twenty-two RCTs reported data separately for men and women in weight loss or weight maintenance interventions. We found men were under-represented in RCTs of weight loss interventions open to both sexes. Men comprised 36% of participants (4771 from 13,305 participants). Despite this, men were 11% (95% CI 8-14%, p

BackgroundMany glaucoma referrals from the community to hospital eye services are unnecessary. Imaging technologies can potentially be useful to triage this population.ObjectivesTo assess the diagnostic performance and cost-effectiveness of imaging technologies as triage tests for identifying people with glaucoma.DesignWithin-patient comparative diagnostic accuracy study. Markov economic model comparing the cost-effectiveness of a triage test with usual care.SettingSecondary care.ParticipantsAdults referred from the community to hospital eye services for possible glaucoma.InterventionsHeidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRT), including two diagnostic algorithms, glaucoma probability score (HRT-GPS) and Moorfields regression analysis (HRT-MRA); scanning laser polarimetry [glaucoma diagnostics (GDx)]; and optical coherence tomography (OCT). The reference standard was clinical examination by a consultant ophthalmologist with glaucoma expertise including visual field testing and intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement.Main outcome measures(1) Diagnostic performance of imaging, using data from the eye with most severe disease. (2) Composite triage test performance (imaging test, IOP measurement and visual acuity measurement), using data from both eyes, in correctly identifying clinical management decisions, that is ‘discharge’ or ‘do not discharge’. Outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).ResultsData from 943 of 955 participants were included in the analysis. The average age was 60.5 years (standard deviation 13.8 years) and 51.1% were females. Glaucoma was diagnosed by the clinician in at least one eye in 16.8% of participants; 37.9% of participants were discharged after the first visit. Regarding diagnosing glaucoma, HRT-MRA had the highest sensitivity [87.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 80.2% to 92.1%] but the lowest specificity (63.9%, 95% CI 60.2% to 67.4%) and GDx had the lowest sensitivity (35.1%, 95% CI 27.0% to 43.8%) but the highest specificity (97.2%, 95% CI 95.6% to 98.3%). HRT-GPS had sensitivity of 81.5% (95% CI 73.9% to 87.6%) and specificity of 67.7% (95% CI 64.2% to 71.2%) and OCT had sensitivity of 76.9% (95% CI 69.2% to 83.4%) and specificity of 78.5% (95% CI 75.4% to 81.4%). Regarding triage accuracy, triage using HRT-GPS had the highest sensitivity (86.0%, 95% CI 82.8% to 88.7%) but the lowest specificity (39.1%, 95% CI 34.0% to 44.5%), GDx had the lowest sensitivity (64.7%, 95% CI 60.7% to 68.7%) but the highest specificity (53.6%, 95% CI 48.2% to 58.9%). Introducing a composite triage station into the referral pathway to identify appropriate referrals was cost-effective. All triage strategies resulted in a cost reduction compared with standard care (consultant-led diagnosis) but with an associated reduction in effectiveness. GDx was the least costly and least effective strategy. OCT and HRT-GPS were not cost-effective. Compared with GDx, the cost per QALY gained for HRT-MRA is £22,904. The cost per QALY gained with current practice is £156,985 compared with HRT-MRA. Large savings could be made by implementing HRT-MRA but some benefit to patients will be forgone. The results were sensitive to the triage costs.ConclusionsAutomated imaging can be effective to aid glaucoma diagnosis among individuals referred from the community to hospital eye services. A model of care using a triage composite test appears to be cost-effective.Future workThere are uncertainties about glaucoma progression under routine care and the cost of providing health care. The acceptability of implementing a triage test needs to be explored.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Summary Background Urinary incontinence is common immediately after prostate surgery. Men are often advised to do pelvic-floor exercises, but evidence to support this is inconclusive. Our aim was to establish if formal one-to-one pelvic floor muscle training reduces incontinence. Methods We undertook two randomised trials in men in the UK who were incontinent 6 weeks after radical prostatectomy (trial 1) or transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP; trial 2) to compare four sessions with a therapist over 3 months with standard care and lifestyle advice only. Randomisation was by remote computer allocation. Our primary endpoints, collected via postal questionnaires, were participants' reports of urinary incontinence and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) after 12 months. Group assignment was masked from outcome assessors, but this masking was not possible for participants or caregivers. We used intention-to-treat analyses to compare the primary outcome at 12 months. This study is registered, number ISRCTN87696430. Findings In the intervention group in trial 1, the rate of urinary incontinence at 12 months (148 [76%] of 196) was not significantly different from the control group (151 [77%] of 195; absolute risk difference [RD] −1·9%, 95% CI −10 to 6). In trial 2, the difference in the rate of urinary incontinence at 12 months (126 [65%] of 194) from the control group was not significant (125 [62%] of 203; RD 3·4%, 95% CI −6 to 13). Adjusting for minimisation factors or doing treatment-received analyses did not change these results in either trial. No adverse effects were reported. In both trials, the intervention resulted in higher mean costs per patient (£180 and £209 respectively) but we did not identify evidence of an economically important difference in QALYs (0·002 [95% CI −0·027 to 0·023] and −0·00003 [−0·026 to 0·026]). Interpretation In settings where information about pelvic-floor exercise is widely available, one-to-one conservative physical therapy for men who are incontinent after prostate surgery is unlikely to be effective or cost effective. The high rates of persisting incontinence after 12 months suggest a substantial unrecognised and unmet need for management in these men. Funding National Institute of Health Research, Health Technology Assessment (NIHR HTA) Programme.

Voiding dysfunction (VD) is relatively common following suburethral tape insertion. Our study aimed to identify perioperative variables that predict VD. Women who underwent suburethral tapes (TVT(TM) and TVT-O(TM)), either as sole procedure or with a concomitant prolapse repair, were studied retrospectively. The primary outcome was women requiring catheterisation and/or re-catheterisation in the postoperative period. A total of 319 women underwent suburethral tapes within the study period: 256 case notes (80.2%) were available for review and 40/256 women (15.6%) developed postoperative VD. No preoperative urinary symptoms were associated with postoperative VD. Univariate analysis demonstrated three variables associated with VD: average flow rate (Q-ave) ≤5th centile (odds ratio (OR) 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-6.5, p = 0.016), a combination of Q-ave and maximum flow rate (Q-max) ≤5th centile (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-6.9, p = 0.030) and concomitant prolapse procedure (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.5-8.9, p = 0.005). Following multivariate logistic regression Q-ave ≤5th centile and concomitant prolapse procedure showed the strongest association with VD.

Background An expertise-based randomised trial design, where participating health professionals only provide the intervention in which they have expertise, has been proposed to overcome challenges faced when evaluating skill based interventions. Health professionals (e.g. surgeons/therapists) often have differing levels of expertise in the interventions, conduct only one routinely and/or have strong preferences. However understanding of this design is limited.

BackgroundUreteric colic, the term used to describe the pain felt when a stone passes down the ureter from the kidney to the bladder, is a frequent reason for people to seek emergency health care. Treatment with the muscle-relaxant drugs tamsulosin hydrochloride (Petyme, TEVA UK Ltd) and nifedipine (Coracten®, UCB Pharma Ltd) as medical expulsive therapy (MET) is increasingly being used to improve the likelihood of spontaneous stone passage and lessen the need for interventional procedures. However, there remains considerable uncertainty around the effectiveness of these drugs for routine use.ObjectivesTo determine whether or not treatment with either tamsulosin 400 µg or nifedipine 30 mg for up to 4 weeks increases the rate of spontaneous stone passage for people with ureteric colic compared with placebo, and whether or not it is cost-effective for the UK NHS.DesignA pragmatic, randomised controlled trial comparing two active drugs, tamsulosin and nifedipine, against placebo. Participants, clinicians and trial staff were blinded to treatment allocation. A cost–utility analysis was performed using data gathered during trial participation.SettingUrology departments in 24 UK NHS hospitals.ParticipantsAdults aged between 18 and 65 years admitted as an emergency with a single ureteric stone measuring ≤ 10 mm, localised by computerised tomography, who were able to take trial medications and complete trial procedures.InterventionsEligible participants were randomised 1 : 1 : 1 to take tamsulosin 400 µg, nifedipine 30 mg or placebo once daily for up to 4 weeks to make the following comparisons: tamsulosin or nifedipine (MET) versus placebo and tamsulosin versus nifedipine.Main outcome measuresThe primary effectiveness outcome was the proportion of participants who spontaneously passed their stone. This was defined as the lack of need for active intervention for ureteric stones at up to 4 weeks after randomisation. This was determined from 4- and 12-week case-report forms completed by research staff, and from the 4-week participant self-reported questionnaire. The primary economic outcome was the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over 12 weeks. We estimated costs from NHS sources and calculated QALYs from participant completion of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions health status questionnaire 3-level response (EQ-5D-3L™) at baseline, 4 weeks and 12 weeks.ResultsPrimary outcome analysis included 97% of the 1167 participants randomised (378/391 tamsulosin, 379/387 nifedipine and 379/399 placebo participants). The proportion of participants who spontaneously passed their stone did not differ between MET and placebo [odds ratio (OR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77 to 1.43; absolute difference 0.8%, 95% CI –4.1% to 5.7%] or between tamsulosin and nifedipine [OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.53; absolute difference 1%, 95% CI –4.6% to 6.6%]. There was no evidence of a difference in QALYs gained or in cost between the trial groups, which means that the use of MET would be very unlikely to be considered cost-effective. These findings were unchanged by extensive sensitivity analyses around predictors of stone passage, including sex, stone size and stone location.ConclusionsTamsulosin and nifedipine did not increase the likelihood of stone passage over 4 weeks for people with ureteric colic, and use of these drugs is very unlikely to be cost-effective for the NHS. Further work is required to investigate the phenomenon of large, high-quality trials showing smaller effect size than meta-analysis of several small, lower-quality studies.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN69423238. European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT) number 2010–019469–26.FundingThis project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inHealth Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 63. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Objectives\ud \ud To determine the long-term effects of in utero progesterone exposure in twin children.\ud \ud Methods\ud \ud This study evaluated the health and developmental outcomes of all surviving children born to mothers who participated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of progesterone given for the prevention of preterm birth in twin pregnancies (STOPPIT, ISRCTN35782581). Follow-up was performed via record linkage and two parent-completed validated questionnaires, the Child Development Inventory and the Health Utilities Index.\ud \ud Results\ud \ud Record linkage was successfully performed on at least one record in 759/781 (97%) children eligible for follow-up. There were no differences between progesterone-exposed and placebo-exposed twins with respect to incidence of death, congenital anomalies and hospitalisation, nor on routine national child health assessments. Questionnaire responses were received for 324/738 (44%) children. The mean age at questionnaire follow-up was 55.5 months. Delay in at least one developmental domain on the Child Development Inventory was observed in 107/324 (33%) children, with no evidence of difference between progesterone-exposed and placebo-exposed twins. There was no evidence of difference between the progesterone and placebo groups in global health status assessed using the Health Utilities Index: 89% of children were rated as having ‘excellent’ health and a further 8% as having ‘very good’ health.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud \ud In this cohort of twin children there was no evidence of a detrimental or beneficial impact on health and developmental outcomes at three to six years of age due to in utero exposure to progesterone.

Background\ud Obesity increases the risk of many serious illnesses such as coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and osteoarthritis. More men than women are overweight or obese in the UK but men are less likely to perceive their weight as a problem and less likely to engage with weight-loss services.\ud Objective\ud The aim of this study was to systematically review evidence-based management strategies for treating obesity in men and investigate how to engage men in obesity services by integrating the quantitative, qualitative and health economic evidence base.\ud Data sources\ud Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database were searched from inception to January 2012, with a limited update search in July 2012. Subject-specific websites, reference lists and professional health-care and commercial organisations were also consulted.\ud Review methods\ud Six systematic reviews were conducted to consider the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and qualitative evidence on interventions for treating obesity in men, and men in contrast to women, and the effectiveness of interventions to engage men in their weight reduction. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with follow-up data of at least 1 year, or any study design and length of follow-up for UK studies, were included. Qualitative and mixed-method studies linked to RCTs and non-randomised intervention studies, and UK-based, men-only qualitative studies not linked to interventions were included. One reviewer extracted data from the included studies and a second reviewer checked data for omissions or inaccuracies. Two reviewers carried out quality assessment. We undertook meta-analysis of quantitative data and a realist approach to integrating the qualitative and quantitative evidence synthesis.\ud Results\ud From a total of 12,764 titles reviewed, 33 RCTs with 12 linked reports, 24 non-randomised reports, five economic evaluations with two linked reports, and 22 qualitative studies were included. Men were more likely than women to benefit if physical activity was part of a weight-loss programme. Reducing diets tended to produce more favourable weight loss than physical activity alone (mean weight change after 1 year from a reducing diet compared with an exercise programme -3.2 kg, 95% CI -4.8 kg to -1.6 kg). The type of reducing diet did not affect long-term weight loss. A reducing diet plus physical activity and behaviour change gave the most effective results. Low-fat reducing diets, some with meal replacements, combined with physical activity and behaviour change training gave the most effective long-term weight change in men [-5.2 kg (standard error 0.2 kg) after 4 years]. Such trials may prevent type 2 diabetes in men and improve erectile dysfunction. Although fewer men joined weight-loss programmes, once recruited they were less likely to drop out than women (difference 11%, 95% CI 8% to 14%). The perception of having a health problem (e.g. being defined as obese by a health professional), the impact of weight loss on health problems and desire to improve personal appearance without looking too thin were motivators for weight loss amongst men. The key components differ from those found for women, with men preferring more factual information on how to lose weight and more emphasis on physical activity programmes. Interventions delivered in social settings were preferred to those delivered in health-care settings. Group-based programmes showed benefits by facilitating support for men with similar health problems, and some individual tailoring of advice assisted weight loss in some studies. Generally, men preferred interventions that were individualised, fact-based and flexible, which used business-like language and which included simple to understand information. Preferences for men-only versus mixed-sex weight-loss group programmes were divided. In terms of context, programmes which were cited in a sporting context where participants have a strong sense of affiliation showed low drop out rates and high satisfaction. Although some men preferred weight-loss programmes delivered in an NHS context, the evidence comparing NHS and commercial programmes for men was unclear. The effect of family and friends on participants in weight-loss programmes was inconsistent in the evidence reviewed - benefits were shown in some cases, but the social role of food in maintaining relationships may also act as a barrier to weight loss. Evidence on the economics of managing obesity in men was limited and heterogeneous.\ud Limitations\ud The main limitations were the limited quantity and quality of the evidence base and narrow outcome reporting, particularly for men from disadvantaged and minority groups. Few of the studies were undertaken in the UK.\ud Conclusions\ud Weight reduction for men is best achieved and maintained with the combination of a reducing diet, physical activity advice or a physical activity programme, and behaviour change techniques. Tailoring interventions and settings for men may enhance effectiveness, though further research is needed to better understand the influence of context and content. Future studies should include cost-effectiveness analyses in the UK setting.

Objective To evaluate the frequency, validity, and relevance of statistically significant (P

Methodological search filters are tools for retrieving database records reporting studies which use a specific research method. Choosing a filter is likely to be based on filter performance data. This review examines which measures are reported, and the way that filter performance is presented, in filter comparisons.Studies were identified from the current content and pending update (2010) of a filter website. Eligible studies compared two or more methodological search filters designed to identify randomised controlled trials, diagnostic test accuracy studies, systematic reviews or economic evaluations.Eighteen studies met the inclusion criteria. The number of filters compared in a single study ranged from 2 to 38. The most commonly reported measures were sensitivity/recall and precision. All studies displayed results in tables and gave results as percentages or proportions. Two studies supplemented results tables with graphical displays of data: a bar graph of the proportion of retrieved and missed gold standard references per filter; a forest plot of the overall sensitivity and specificity of each filter.Sensitivity/recall and precision are the most frequently reported performance measures. This review highlights the potential for presenting results in novel and innovative ways to aid filter selection.

Search filters or hedges are search strategies developed to assist information specialists and librarians to retrieve different types of evidence from bibliographic databases. The objectives of this project were to learn about searchers' filter use, how searchers choose search filters and what information they would like to receive to inform their choices.Interviews with information specialists working in, or for, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) were conducted. An online questionnaire survey was also conducted and advertised via a range of email lists.Sixteen interviews were undertaken and 90 completed questionnaires were received. The use of search filters tends to be linked to reducing a large amount of literature, introducing focus and assisting with searches that are based on a single study type. Respondents use numerous ways to identify search filters and can find choosing between different filters problematic because of knowledge gaps and lack of time.Search filters are used mainly for reducing large result sets (introducing focus) and assisting with searches focused on a single study type. Features that would help with choosing filters include making information about filters less technical, offering ratings and providing more detail about filter validation strategies and filter provenance.

To determine whether internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling improves anatomic and functional outcomes of full-thickness macular hole (FTMH) surgery when compared with the no-peeling technique.Systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis undertaken under the auspices of the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Group. Only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were included.Patients with idiopathic stage 2, 3, and 4 FTMH undergoing vitrectomy with or without ILM peeling.Macular hole surgery, including vitrectomy and gas endotamponade with or without ILM peeling.Primary outcome was best-corrected distance visual acuity (BCdVA) at 6 months postoperatively. Secondary outcomes were BCdVA at 3 and 12 months; best-corrected near visual acuity (BCnVA) at 3, 6, and 12 months; primary (after a single surgery) and final (after1 surgery) macular hole closure; need for additional surgical interventions; intraoperative and postoperative complications; patient-reported outcomes (PROs) (EuroQol-5D and Vision Function Questionnaire-25 scores at 6 months); and cost-effectiveness.Four RCTs were identified and included in the review. All RCTs were included in the meta-analysis; IPD were obtained from 3 of the 4 RCTs. No evidence of a difference in BCdVA at 6 months was detected (mean difference, -0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.12 to 0.03; P=0.27); however, there was evidence of a difference in BCdVA at 3 months favoring ILM peeling (mean difference, -0.09; 95% CI, -0.17 to-0.02; P=0.02). There was evidence of an effect favoring ILM peeling with regard to primary (odds ratio [OR], 9.27; 95% CI, 4.98-17.24; P0.00001) and final macular hole closure (OR, 3.99; 95% CI, 1.63-9.75; P=0.02) and less requirement for additional surgery (OR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.05-0.23; P0.00001), with no evidence of a difference between groups with regard to intraoperative or postoperative complications or PROs. The ILM peeling was found to be highly cost-effective.Available evidence supports ILM peeling as the treatment of choice for patients with idiopathic stage 2, 3, and 4 FTMH.

Background Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is an autosomal dominant genetic condition causing a high risk of coronary heart disease. The prevalence of this disease is about 1 in 500 in the UK, affecting about 120,000 people across the whole of the UK. Current guidelines recommend DNA testing, however, these guidelines are poorly implemented, therefore 102,000 or 85% of this group remain undiagnosed. Objectives To assess the diagnostic accuracy, effect on patient outcomes and cost-effectiveness of Elucigene FH20 and LIPOchip for the diagnosis of FH. Data sources Electronic databases including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, BIOSIS, Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science and Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched until January 2011. Review methods A systematic review of the literature on diagnostic accuracy was carried out according to standard methods. An economic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative diagnostic strategies for the confirmation of clinically diagnosed FH in index cases and for the identification and subsequent testing of first-, second- and possibly third-degree biological relatives of the index case. Twelve strategies were evaluated linking diagnostic accuracy to treatment outcomes and hence quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to investigate model and parameter uncertainty. Results Fifteen studies were included for diagnostic accuracy; three reported Elucigene FH20, five reported LIPOchip, four reported low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) tests and three reported an age- and gender-specific LDL-C test against a reference standard of comprehensive genetic analysis (CGA). Sensitivity ranged from 44% to 52% for Elucigene FH20 and from 33.3% to 94.5% for various versions of LIPOchip in detecting FH-causing mutations in patients with a clinical diagnosis of FH. For LIPOchip version 10 (designed to detect 189 UK specific mutations), sensitivity would be 78.5% (based on single-centre data - Progenika, personal communication). For all other Elucigene FH20 or LIPOchip studies (apart from one LIPOchip study), specificity could not be calculated as no false-positive results could be derived from the given data. The LDL-C test was generally reported to be highly sensitive but with low specificity. For age- and gender-specific LDL-C cut-offs for cascade testing, sensitivity ranged from 68% to 96%. One UK-based study reported sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 93%. For the cost-effectiveness review, only one study reporting cost-effectiveness of any one of the comparators for this assessment was identified. Pre-screen strategies such as Elucigene FH20 followed by CGA were not cost-effective and were dominated by the single more comprehensive tests (e.g. CGA). Of the non-dominated strategies, Elucigene FH20, LIPOchip platform (Spain) and CGA were all cost-effective with associated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) relative to LDL-C of dominance (test is less costly and more effective), £871 and £1030 per QALY gained respectively. CGA generates the greatest QALY gain and, although other tests have lower ICERs relative to LDL-C, this is at the expense of QALY loss compared with the CGA test. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that CGA is associated with an almost 100% probability of cost-effectiveness at the conventional value of willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY gain. Limitations There was much uncertainty regarding the diagnostic accuracy of the included tests, with wide variation in sensitivity across reported studies. A lack of published information for the most recent version of LIPOchip created additional uncertainty, especially in relation to the chip's ability to detect copy number changes. For the economic modelling, we aimed to choose the best studies for the base-case sensitivity of the tests; however, a number of informed choices based on clinical expert opinion had to be made in the absence of published studies for a number of other parameters in the modelling. This adds some uncertainty to our results, although it is unlikely that these would be sufficient in magnitude to alter our main results and conclusions. Conclusions As targeted tests designed to detect a limited number of genetic mutations, Elucigene FH20 and LIPOchip cannot detect all cases of FH, in contrast with CGA. CGA is therefore the most effective test in terms of sensitivity and QALY gain, and is also highly cost-effective with an associated ICER of £1030 per QALY gain relative to current practice (LDL-C). Other tests such as Elucigene FH20 and LIPOchip are also cost-effective; however, because of inferior sensitivity compared with CGA, these tests offer cost savings but at the expense of large QALY losses compared with CGA. Further prospective multicentred studies are required to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of new and emerging tests for FH with the LDL-C test in patients with a clinical diagnosis based on the Simon Broome criteria. Such studies should verify both test-positive and -negative results against a reference standard of CGA and should include a full economic evaluation. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies have suggested the potential benefit of internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling to treat idiopathic full-thickness macular hole (FTMH). However, no strong evidence is available on the potential benefit(s) of this surgical manoeuvre and uncertainty remains among vitreoretinal surgeons about the indication for peeling the ILM, whether to use it in all cases or in long-standing and/or larger holes. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether ILM peeling improves anatomical and functional outcomes of macular hole surgery compared with the no-peeling technique and to investigate the impact of different parameters such as presenting vision, stage/size of the hole and duration of symptoms in the success of the surgery. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) which contains the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Group Trials Register (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 2), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE Daily, Ovid OLDMEDLINE, (January 1950 to February 2013), EMBASE (January 1980 to February 2013), Latin American and Caribbean Literature on Health Sciences (LILACS) (January 1982 to February 2013), the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) (www.controlled-trials.com), ClinicalTrials.gov (www.clinicaltrials.gov) and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (www.who.int/ictrp/search/en). We searched the reference lists of included studies for any additional studies not identified by the electronic searches. We did not use any date or language restrictions in the electronic searches for trials. We last searched the electronic databases on 28 February 2013.We searched reference lists of the studies included in the review for information about other studies on ILM peeling in macular hole surgery. We searched Proceedings for the following conferences up to February 2013: American Academy of Ophthalmology (AAO), Annual Meeting of the American Society of Retina Specialists (ASRS), Annual Meeting of the Retina Society, Congress of the Asia-Pacific Academy of Ophthalmology (APAO), European Association for Vision and Eye Research (EVER) Annual Congress, European Vitreoretinal Society (EVRS) Annual Meeting, Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology (ARVO) Meeting, International Vitreoretinal Meeting, and World Ophthalmology Congress. SELECTION CRITERIA: Only randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing ILM peeling with the no-peeling counterpart were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors (KSC and NL) independently assessed the titles and abstracts of all RCTs identified by electronic and manual searches.We obtained Individual patient data (IPD) from three of the four identified eligible trials. The fourth identified RCT had only been published in abstract form and no IPD were available; we included data from this published abstract for one outcome (macular hole closure).The primary outcome was distance visual acuity at six months. Secondary outcomes included distance and near visual acuity at three and 12 months postoperatively, near visual acuity at six months postoperatively, primary (after a single surgery) and final (following more than one surgery) macular hole closure, need for additional surgical interventions, vision-related quality of life and intraoperative and postoperative complications.We performed meta-analysis using standard techniques (the Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio (OR) for binary outcomes, mean difference (MD) for continuous outcomes) using a fixed-effect model. For two outcomes we also used the IPD to perform adjusted analyses using regression methods. MAIN RESULTS: We identified and included four RCTs; these were conducted in Denmark, France, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom/Republic of Ireland and randomised 47, 80, 49 and 141 participants respectively.There was no evidence of a difference in the primary outcome (distance visual acuity at six months), nor in distance visual acuity at 12 months between randomised groups. However, there was evidence of improved best corrected distance visual acuity in the ILM peeling group at three months (WMD -0.09, 95% CI -0.17 to -0.02). We found no evidence for a difference in near vision between groups at any of the time points investigated.Overall, more participants in the ILM peeling group than in the no-peeling group had primary macular hole closure (OR 9.27, 95% CI 4.98 to 17.24); this held true when results were stratified by the stage of the macular hole. There was also evidence that those in the ILM peeling group were more likely to have final macular hole closure (OR 3.99, 95% CI 1.63 to 9.75). Fewer participants required further surgery in the ILM peeling group than in the no-peeling group (OR 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.23).Rates of intraoperative and postoperative complications were similar in both groups.Based on the results of one study, there was no evidence that total VFQ-25 or EQ-5D scores differed between the groups at six months. Based on this same study, ILM peeling is highly likely to be cost-effective. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Although we found no evidence of a benefit of ILM peeling in terms of the primary outcome (visual acuity at six months), ILM peeling appears to be superior to its no-peeling counterpart as it offers more favourable cost effectiveness by increasing the likelihood of primary anatomical closure and subsequently decreasing the likelihood of further surgery, with no differences in unwanted side-effects compared with no peeling.

SummaryThe effects at 2 years of polyglactin (Vicryl) mesh inlay and polydioxanone (PDS) or polyglactin (Vicryl) suture material on prolapse symptoms, urinary, bowel, sexual function and prolapse related Quality-of-Life (QoL) in women undergoing pelvic organ prolapse surgery were evaluated in a randomised controlled trial with a 2 × 2 factorial design of Vicryl mesh (n = 32) or not (n = 34) and PDS (n = 33) or Vicryl suture (n = 33). The response rate at 2 years was 82%. There were no differences in the prolapse symptom scores between the randomised groups. Prolapse-related QoL score (mean difference: 2.05, 95% CI 0.19–3.91) and urinary incontinence score (mean difference: 2.56, 95% CI 0.02–5.11) were significantly lower (better) in women who had Vicryl compared with PDS sutures. The apparent superiority of the prolapse-related QoL and urinary incontinence scores in women using Vicryl suture material (vs PDS) needs to be confirmed in a larger trial.

Objective To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of active conservative treatment, compared with standard management, in regaining urinary continence at 12 months in men with urinary incontinence at 6 weeks after a radical prostatectomy or a transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). Background Urinary incontinence after radical prostate surgery is common immediately after surgery, although the chance of incontinence is less after TURP than following radical prostatectomy. Design Two multicentre, UK, parallel randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing active conservative treatment [pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) delivered by a specialist continence physiotherapist or a specialist continence nurse] with standard management in men after radial prostatectomy and TURP. Setting Men having prostate surgery were identified in 34 centres across the UK. If they had urinary incontinence, they were invited to enrol in the RCT. Participants Men with urinary incontinence at 6 weeks after prostate surgery were eligible to be randomised if they consented and were able to comply with the intervention. Interventions Eligible men were randomised to attend four sessions with a therapist over a 3-month period. The therapists provided standardised PFMT and bladder training for male urinary incontinence and erectile dysfunction. The control group continued with standard management. Main outcome measures The primary outcome of clinical effectiveness was urinary incontinence at 12 months after randomisation, and the primary measure of cost-effectiveness was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Outcome data were collected by postal questionnaires at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Results Within the radical group (n = 411), 92% of the men in the intervention group attended at least one therapy visit and were more likely than those in the control group to be carrying out any PFMT at 12 months {adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.30 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09 to 1.53]}. The absolute risk difference in urinary incontinence rates at 12 months between the intervention (75.5%) and control (77.4%) groups was –1.9% (95% CI –10% to 6%). NHS costs were higher in the intervention group [£181.02 (95% CI £107 to £255)] but there was no evidence of a difference in societal costs, and QALYs were virtually identical for both groups. Within the TURP group (n = 442), over 85% of men in the intervention group attended at least one therapy visit and were more likely to be carrying out any PFMT at 12 months after randomisation [adjusted RR 3.20 (95% CI 2.37 to 4.32)]. The absolute risk difference in urinary incontinence rates at 12 months between the intervention (64.9%) and control (61.5%) groups for the unadjusted intention-to-treat analysis was 3.4% (95% CI –6% to 13%). NHS costs [£209 (95% CI £147 to £271)] and societal costs [£420 (95% CI £54 to £785)] were statistically significantly higher in the intervention group but QALYs were virtually identical. Conclusions The provision of one-to-one conservative physical therapy for men with urinary incontinence after prostate surgery is unlikely to be effective or cost-effective compared with standard care that includes the provision of information about conducting PFMT. Future work should include research into the value of different surgical options in controlling urinary incontinence. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN87696430. Funding This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 15, No. 24. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the test performance and clinical effectiveness of photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) compared with white light cystoscopy (WLC) in people suspected of new or recurrent bladder cancer.Methods: A systematic review was conducted of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), nonrandomized comparative studies, or diagnostic cross-sectional studies comparing PDD with WLC. Fifteen electronic databases and Web sites were searched (last searches April 2008). For clinical effectiveness, only RCTs were considered.Results: Twenty-seven studies (2,949 participants) assessed test performance. PDD had higher sensitivity than WLC (92 percent, 95 percent confidence interval [CI], 80–100 percent versus 71 percent, 95 percent CI, 49–93 percent) but lower specificity (57 percent, 95 percent CI, 36–79 percent versus 72 percent, 95 percent CI, 47–96 percent). For detecting higher risk tumors, median range sensitivity of PDD (89 percent [6–100 percent]) was higher than WLC (56 percent [0–100 percent]) whereas for lower risk tumors it was broadly similar (92 percent [20–95 percent] versus 95 percent [8–100 percent]). Four RCTs (709 participants) using 5-aminolaevulinic acid (5-ALA) as the photosensitising agent reported clinical effectiveness. Using PDD at transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) resulted in fewer residual tumors at check cystoscopy (relative risk [RR], 0.37, 95 percent CI, 0.20–0.69) and longer recurrence-free survival (RR, 1.37, 95 percent CI, 1.18–1.59), compared with WLC.Conclusions: PDD detects more bladder tumors than WLC, including more high-risk tumors. Based on four RCTs reporting clinical effectiveness, 5-aminolaevulinic acid–mediated PDD at TURBT facilitates a more complete resection and prolongs recurrence-free survival.

The purpose of surveillance mammography following primary breast cancer treatment is to detect subsequent cancers at the smallest size. We examined the prognostic effect of size of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) and metachronous contralateral breast cancer (MCBC) to assess potential benefit of surveillance mammography after breast cancer treatment.

Objective To assess whether or not the Chlamydia Rapid Test (CRT) could improve detection of genital chlamydia, and whether it is more effective than current practice using nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs), in terms of the number of cases of chlamydia that are detected and treated and the proportion of partners identified and treated. Data sources Eleven electronic bibliographic databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE) were searched until November 2008, as well as relevant websites. Review methods Studies of sexually active adolescent and adult women and men suspected of having or being tested for genital chlamydia infection were considered. The tests considered were the CRT and other comparator point-of-care tests identified, using a NAAT as a reference standard. Summary sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios for each model were reported as a median and a 95% confidence interval (CI). Effectiveness was measured in terms of the absolute numbers of true-positives, false-positives, false-negatives (and other positive cases missed) and true-negatives detected. Costs were considered from the health service’s perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to examine the relative cost-effectiveness, and values of the major parameters of the models were varied in a sensitivity analysis. Results Thirteen studies enrolling 8817 participants were included in the analysis. In the pooled estimates for the CRT, sensitivity (95% CI) was 80% (73% to 85%) for vaginal swab specimens and 77% (59% to 89%) for first void urine (FVU) specimens. Specificity was 99% (99% to 100%) for vaginal swab specimens and 99% (98% to 99%) for FVU specimens. In the pooled estimates for a comparator point-of-care test (Clearview Chlamydia), sensitivity (95% CI) was 52% (39% to 65%) for vaginal, cervical and urethral swab specimens combined, and 64% (47% to 77%) for cervical specimens alone. Specificity was 97% (94% to 100%) for vaginal, cervical and urethral swab specimens combined, and 97% (88% to 99%) for cervical specimens alone. The results of the economic evaluation showed that for a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people, using the current practice of polymerase chain reaction testing would result in 12.63 people who were offered testing being correctly treated and having their sexual partners contacted, at a cost of £7070 (for the whole cohort). For the CRT, the number being correctly treated would be 10.98, at a cost of £7180. For the Clearview Chlamydia test, the number correctly treated would be 7.14, at a cost of £7170. Both point-of-care tests were therefore more costly and less effective than current practice. Conclusions The limited evidence available suggests that NAATs are still the most accurate and cost-effective method for diagnosing chlamydia infection. There may be circumstances in which point-of-care tests could be provided in addition to existing NAAT services, but there is currently little evidence on point-of-care methods in such settings. Robust evidence of the diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care tests for different types of samples is also still required, as are studies evaluating clinical effectiveness outcomes for these tests in comparison with NAATs.

Background Routine screening for depression in patients with cardiometabolic disease is advocated but its benefits remain unclear. We examined the association between such screening in a large UK cohort of patients with cardiometabolic diseases and all-cause mortality and vascular events at 4 years. Methods Patients in Greater Glasgow with one of three cardiometabolic diseases—coronary heart disease, diabetes, or stroke—underwent screening for depression with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). The health board offered monetary incentives for depression screening to primary care practitioners, and people with positive depression screens were treated (psychological or pharmacological) according to national guidelines. 125 143 patients with at least one of the diseases were listed on primary care registers during 12 months' observation in 2008–09. 10 670 (8·5%) receiving treatment for depression were exempt from screening. HADS-D was recorded for 35 537 patients (31·1% of eligible); the remaining 78 936 (68·9%) were not screened. We studied all-cause mortality and vascular events (using International Classification of Diseases 10 codes for myocardial infarction and stroke) by linking 124 414 patients (99·4%) on primary care registers to hospital discharge and mortality records for 4 years from April, 2009, and used Cox proportional hazards for survival analysis. Findings Mean age for the screened and unscreened population was 69 years (SD 11·9) and 67 years (14·3), respectively; 58% (20 658) of the screened population were men and 65·3% (22 726) belonged to a deprived socioeconomic group, compared with 54·2 % (42 727) and 67·4% (51 686), respectively, in the unscreened population. 4989 (6·3%) of 789 366 of the unscreened population were started on new antidepressants during the observation period compared with 1268 (3·5%) of 35 537 of the screened population and 572 of 7080 (8·02%) of those HADS-D positive. The screened population had lower all-cause mortality and vascular events than the unscreened population (hazard ratio 0·74, 95% CI 0·72–0·77, p vs 0·69, 0·67–0·72, p Interpretation Screening for depression was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality and vascular events in patients with cardiometabolic diseases. The uptake of screening was poor for unknown reasons. The possibility of reverse causality and the possible confounding effect of disease severity are important limitations. Further research to determine reproducibility and explore underlying mechanisms is merited. Funding The study was funded by BUPA Foundation. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the abstract.

Summary Background Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is a major preventable cause of harm for patients in hospital. We aimed to establish whether short-term routine use of antimicrobial catheters reduced risk of CAUTI compared with standard polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) catheterisation. Methods In our parallel, three group, multicentre, randomised controlled superiority trial, we enrolled adults (aged ≥16 years) requiring short-term (≤14 days) catheterisation at 24 hospitals in the UK. Participants were randomly allocated 1:1:1 with a remote computer allocation to receive a silver alloy-coated catheter, a nitrofural-impregnated catheter, or a PTFE-coated catheter (control group). Patients undergoing unplanned catheterisation were also included and consent for participation was obtained retrospectively. Participants and trial staff were unmasked to treatment assignment. Data were collected by trial staff and by patient-reported questionnaires for 6 weeks after randomisation. The primary outcome was incidence of symptomatic urinary tract infection for which an antibiotic was prescribed by 6 weeks. We postulated that a 3·3% absolute reduction in CAUTI would represent sufficient benefit to recommend routine use of antimicrobial catheters. This study is registered, number ISRCTN75198618. Findings 708 (10%) of 7102 randomly allocated participants were not catheterised, did not confirm consent, or withdrew, and were not included in the primary analyses. Compared with 271 (12·6%) of 2144 participants in the control group, 263 (12·5%) of 2097 participants allocated a silver alloy catheter had the primary outcome (difference −0·1% [95% CI −2·4 to 2·2]), as did 228 (10·6%) of 2153 participants allocated a nitrofural catheter (−2·1% [−4·2 to 0·1]). Rates of catheter-related discomfort were higher in the nitrofural group than they were in the other groups. Interpretation Silver alloy-coated catheters were not effective for reduction of incidence of symptomatic CAUTI. The reduction we noted in CAUTI associated with nitrofural-impregnated catheters was less than that regarded as clinically important. Routine use of antimicrobial-impregnated catheters is not supported by this trial. Funding UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of surveillance mammography for detecting ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence and metachronous contralateral breast cancer in women previously treated for primary breast cancer.A systematic review of surveillance mammography compared with ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), specialist-led clinical examination or unstructured primary care follow-up, using histopathological assessment for test positives and follow-up for test negatives as the reference standard.Nine studies met our inclusion criteria. Variations in study comparisons precluded meta-analysis. For routine ipsilateral breast tumour detection, surveillance mammography sensitivity ranged from 64-67% and specificity ranged from 85-97%. For MRI, sensitivity ranged from 86-100% and specificity was 93%. For non-routine ipsilateral breast tumour detection, sensitivity and specificity for surveillance mammography ranged from 50-83% and 57-75% and for MRI 93-100% and 88-96%. For routine metachronous contralateral breast cancer detection, one study reported sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 50% for both surveillance mammography and MRI.Although mammography is associated with high sensitivity and specificity, MRI is the most accurate test for detecting ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence and metachronous contralateral breast cancer in women previously treated for primary breast cancer. Results should be interpreted with caution because of the limited evidence base. Key Points • Surveillance mammography is associated with high sensitivity and specificity • Findings suggest that MRI is the most accurate test for detecting further breast cancer • Robust conclusions cannot be made due to the limited evidence base • Further research comparing surveillance mammography and other diagnostic tests is required.

Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is a major preventable cause of harm for patients in hospital and incurs significant costs for health-care providers such as the UK NHS. Many preventative strategies and measures have been introduced to minimise CAUTI risk, including the use of antimicrobial catheters. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding their usefulness in terms of reducing symptomatic CAUTI, and whether or not they are cost-effective.Do antimicrobial catheters reduce the rate of symptomatic urinary tract infection (UTI) during short-term hospital use and is their use cost-effective for the UK NHS?A pragmatic multicentre UK randomised controlled trial comparing three catheters as they would be used in the UK NHS: antimicrobial-impregnated (nitrofurazone) and antiseptic-coated (silver alloy) catheters with the standard polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-coated catheters. Economic evaluation used a decision model populated with data from the trial. Sensitivity analysis was used to explore uncertainty.Relevant clinical departments in 24 NHS hospitals throughout the UK.Adults requiring temporary urethral catheterisation for a period of between 1 and 14 days as part of their care, predominantly as a result of elective surgery.Eligible participants were randomised 1 : 1 : 1 to one of three types of urethral catheter in order to make the following pragmatic comparisons: nitrofurazone-impregnated silicone catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter; and silver alloy-coated hydrogel latex catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter.The primary outcome for clinical effectiveness was the incidence of UTI at any time up to 6 weeks post randomisation. This was defined as any symptom reported during catheterisation, up to 3 days or 1 or 2 weeks post catheter removal or 6 weeks post randomisation combined with a prescription of antibiotics, at any of these times, for presumed symptomatic UTI. The primary economic outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Health-care costs were estimated from NHS sources with QALYs calculated from participant completion of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D).Outcome analyses encompassed 6394 (90%) of 7102 participants randomised. The rate of symptomatic UTI within 6 weeks of randomisation was 10.6% in the nitrofurazone group (n = 2153; -2.1% absolute risk difference), 12.5% in the silver alloy group (n = 2097; -0.1% absolute risk difference) and 12.6% in the PTFE group (n = 2144). The effect size {odds ratio (OR) [97.5% confidence interval (CI)]} was 0.82 (97.5% CI 0.66 to 1.01) for nitrofurazone (p = 0.037) and 0.99 (97.5% CI 0.81 to 1.22) for silver alloy (p = 0.92) catheters. The nitrofurazone catheters were more likely to cause discomfort during use and on removal. The primary economic analysis suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters would be, on average, the least costly (£7 less than PTFE) and most effective option at current NHS prices. There was a 73% chance that nitrofurazone would be cost saving and an 84% chance that the incremental cost per QALY would be£30,000. At the trial price (£6.46), silver alloy catheters were very unlikely to be cost-effective. These results were unchanged in sensitivity analyses, although when the length of stay cost was excluded the incremental cost per QALY for nitrofurazone against PTFE was £28,602.The trial estimate of clinical effectiveness for nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters was less than the pre-specified minimum absolute risk difference that we considered important (-3.3%), and the surrounding CI included zero, indicating that any reduction in catheter-associated UTI was uncertain. Economic analysis, although associated with uncertainty, suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters may be cost-effective for the NHS. The trial ruled out the possibility that silver alloy-coated catheters might reach the pre-set degree of clinical effectiveness and that their use was unlikely to be cost-effective. These findings should be considered by patients, clinicians and health-care policy-makers to determine whether or not a change in practice is worthwhile. Future research should be aimed at determining the minimum clinically important difference in terms of CAUTI prevention in comparative trials, and to identify reliable methods which can detect the impact of the intervention on quality of life and other drivers of cost, when the intervention is a subsidiary part of overall treatment plans.

Background: Following primary breast cancer treatment, the early detection of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) or ipsilateral secondary cancer in the treated breast and detection of new primary cancers in the contralateral breast is beneficial for survival. Surveillance mammography is used to detect these cancers, but the optimal frequency of surveillance and the length of follow-up are unclear. Objectives: To identify feasible management strategies for surveillance and follow-up of women after treatment for primary breast cancer in a UK setting, and to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of differing regimens. Methods: A survey of UK breast surgeons and radiologists to identify current surveillance mammography regimens and inform feasible alternatives; two discrete systematic reviews of evidence published from 1990 to mid 2009 to determine (i) the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of differing surveillance mammography regimens for patient health outcomes and (ii) the test performance of surveillance mammography in the detection of IBTR and metachronous contralateral breast cancer (MCBC); statistical analysis of individual patient data (West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit Breast Cancer Registry and Edinburgh data sets); and economic modelling using the systematic reviews results, existing data sets, and focused searches for specific data analysis to determine the effectiveness and cost-utility of differing surveillance regimens. Results: The majority of survey respondents initiate surveillance mammography 12 months after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) (87%) or mastectomy (79%). Annual surveillance mammography was most commonly reported for women after BCS or after mastectomy (72% and 53%, respectively). Most (74%) discharge women from surveillance mammography, most frequently 10 years after surgery. The majority (82%) discharge from clinical follow-up, most frequently at 5 years. Combining initiation, frequency and duration of surveillance mammography resulted in 54 differing surveillance regimens for women after BCS and 56 for women following mastectomy. The eight studies included in the clinical effectiveness systematic review suggest surveillance mammography offers a survival benefit compared with a surveillance regimen that does not include surveillance mammography. Nine studies were included in the test performance systematic review. For routine IBTR detection, surveillance mammography sensitivity ranged from 64% to 67% and specificity ranged from 85% to 97%. For magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), sensitivity ranged from 86% to 100% and specificity was 93%. For non-routine IBTR detection, sensitivity and specificity for surveillance mammography ranged from 50% to 83% and from 57% to 75%, respectively, and for MRI from 93% to 100% and from 88% to 96%, respectively. For routine MCBC detection, one study reported sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 50% for both surveillance mammography and MRI, although this was a highly select population. Data set analysis showed that IBTR has an adverse effect on survival. Furthermore, women experiencing a second tumour measuring >20 mm in diameter were at a significantly greater risk of death than those with no recurrence or those whose tumour was