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Abstract Background Cognitive impairment is common after stroke, and a large proportion of stroke patients will develop dementia. However, there have been few large prospective studies which have assessed cognition both prior to and after stroke. This study aims to determine the extent to which incident stroke impacts different domains of cognitive function in a longitudinal cohort of older community-dwelling individuals. Methods 19,114 older individuals without cardiovascular disease or major cognitive impairment were recruited and followed over a maximum 11 years. Stroke included ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke and was adjudicated by experts. Cognitive function was assessed regularly using Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS), Hopkins Verbal Learning Test–Revised (HVLT-R), Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), and Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT). Linear mixed models were used to investigate the change in cognition at the time of stroke and decline in cognitive trajectories following incident stroke. Results During a median follow-up period of 8.4 [IQR: 7.2, 9.6] years, 815 (4.3%) participants experienced a stroke. Over this time, there was a general decline observed in 3MS, HVLT-R delayed recall, and SDMT scores across participants. However, for individuals who experienced a stroke, there was a significantly greater decline across all cognitive domains immediately after the event immediately after the event (3MS: -1.03 [95%CI: -1.45, -0.60]; HVLT-R: -0.47 [-0.70, -0.24]; SDMT: -2.82 [-3.57, -2.08]; COWAT: -0.67 [-1.04, -0.29]) and a steeper long-term decline for three of these domains (3MS -0.62 [-0.88, -0.35]; COWAT: -0.30 [-0.46, -0.14]); HVLT-R: -0.12 [95%CI, -0.70, -0.24]). However individuals with stroke experienced no longer-term decline in SDMT compared to the rest of the participants. Conclusions These findings highlight the need for comprehensive neuropsychology assessments for ongoing monitoring of cognition following incident stroke; and potential early intervention.

Abstract Background Psychosocial stressors increase the risks for cardiovascular disease across diverse populations. However, neighborhood level resilience resources may protect against poor cardiovascular health (CVH). This study used data from three CVH cohorts to examine longitudinally the associations of a resilience resource, perceived neighborhood social cohesion (hereafter referred to as neighborhood social cohesion), with the American Heart Association’s Life’s Simple 7 (LS7), and whether psychosocial stressors modify observed relationships. Methods We examined neighborhood social cohesion (measured in tertiles) and LS7 in the Jackson Heart Study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America study. We used repeated-measures, modified Poisson regression models to estimate the relationship between neighborhood social cohesion and LS7 (primary analysis, n = 6,086) and four biological metrics (body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, blood glucose; secondary analysis, n = 7,291). We assessed effect measure modification by each psychosocial stressor (e.g., low educational attainment, discrimination). Results In primary analyses, adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for ideal/intermediate versus poor CVH among high or medium (versus low) neighborhood social cohesion were 1.01 (0.97–1.05) and 1.02 (0.98–1.06), respectively. The psychosocial stressors, low education and discrimination, functioned as effect modifiers. Secondary analyses showed similar findings. Also, in the secondary analyses, there was evidence for effect modification by income. Conclusion We did not find much support for an association between neighborhood social cohesion and LS7, but did find evidence of effect modification. Some of the effect modification results operated in unexpected directions. Future studies should examine neighborhood social cohesion more comprehensively and assess for effect modification by psychosocial stressors.

Purpose: Social support may have benefits on cardiovascular health (CVH). CVH is evaluated using seven important metrics (Life's Simple 7; LS7) established by the American Heart Association (e.g., smoking, diet). However, evidence from longitudinal studies is limited and inconsistent. The objective of this study is to examine the longitudinal relationship between social support and CVH, and assess whether psychosocial risks (e.g., anger and stress) modify the relationship in a racially/ethnically diverse population. Methods: Participants from three harmonized cohort studies – Jackson Heart Study, Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis – were included. Repeated-measures modified Poisson regression models were used to examine the overall relationship between social support (in tertiles) and CVH (LS7 metric), and to assess for effect modification by psychosocial risk. Results: Among 7724 participants, those with high (versus low) social support had an adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for ideal or intermediate (versus poor) CVH of 0.99 (0.96–1.03). For medium (versus low) social support, the aPR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.98–1.05). There was evidence for modification by employment and anger. Those with medium (versus low) social support had an aPR (95% CI) of 1.04 (0.99–1.10) among unemployed or low anger participants. Corresponding results for employed or high anger participants were 0.99 (0.94–1.03) and 0.97 (0.91–1.03), respectively. Conclusion: Overall, we observed no strong evidence for an association between social support and CVH. However, some psychosocial risks may be modifiers. Prospective studies are needed to assess the social support-CVH relationship by psychosocial risks in racially/ethnically diverse populations.

Aim: The SAMe-TT2R2 score helps identify patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) likely to have poor anticoagulation control during anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) and those with scores >2 might be better managed with a target-specific oral anticoagulant (NOAC). We hypothesized that in clinical practice, VKAs may be prescribed less frequently to patients with AF and SAMe-TT2R2 scores >2 than to patients with lower scores. Methods and results: We analyzed the Phase III dataset of the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF), a large, global, prospective global registry of patients with newly diagnosed AF and ≥1 stroke risk factor. We compared baseline clinical characteristics and antithrombotic prescriptions to determine the probability of the VKA prescription among anticoagulated patients with the baseline SAMe-TT2R2 score >2 and ≤ 2. Among 17,465 anticoagulated patients with AF, 4,828 (27.6%) patients were prescribed VKA and 12,637 (72.4%) patients an NOAC: 11,884 (68.0%) patients had SAMe-TT2R2 scores 0-2 and 5,581 (32.0%) patients had scores >2. The proportion of patients prescribed VKA was 28.0% among patients with SAMe-TT2R2 scores >2 and 27.5% in those with scores ≤2. Conclusions: The lack of a clear association between the SAMe-TT2R2 score and anticoagulant selection may be attributed to the relative efficacy and safety profiles between NOACs and VKAs as well as to the absence of trial evidence that an SAMe-TT2R2-guided strategy for the selection of the type of anticoagulation in NVAF patients has an impact on clinical outcomes of efficacy and safety. The latter hypothesis is currently being tested in a randomized controlled trial. Clinical trial registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov//Unique identifier: NCT01937377, NCT01468701, and NCT01671007.

Abstract Background Osteoarthritis is generally a slowly progressive disorder. However, at least 1 in 7 people with incident knee osteoarthritis develop an abrupt progression to advanced-stage radiographic disease, many within 12 months. We summarize what is known – primarily based on findings from the Osteoarthritis Initiative – about the risk factors and natural history of accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) – defined as a transition from no radiographic knee osteoarthritis to advanced-stage disease

Abstract Background We aimed to determine if composite structural measures of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression on magnetic resonance (MR) imaging can predict the radiographic onset of accelerated knee osteoarthritis. Methods We used data from a nested case-control study among participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative without radiographic KOA at baseline. Participants were separated into three groups based on radiographic disease progression over 4 years: 1) accelerated (Kellgren-Lawrence grades [KL] 0/1 to 3/4), 2) typical (increase in KL, excluding accelerated osteoarthritis), or 3) no KOA (no change in KL). We assessed tibiofemoral cartilage damage (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), bone marrow lesion (BML) volume (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), and whole knee effusion-synovitis volume on 3 T MR images with semi-automated programs. We calculated two MR-based composite scores. Cumulative damage was the sum of standardized cartilage damage. Disease activity was the sum of standardized volumes of effusion-synovitis and BMLs. We focused on annual images from 2 years before to 2 years after radiographic onset (or a matched time for those without knee osteoarthritis). To determine between group differences in the composite metrics at all time points, we used generalized linear mixed models with group (3 levels) and time (up to 5 levels). For our prognostic analysis, we used multinomial logistic regression models to determine if one-year worsening in each composite metric change associated with future accelerated knee osteoarthritis (odds ratios [OR] based on units of 1 standard deviation of change). Results Prior to disease onset, the accelerated KOA group had greater average disease activity compared to the typical and no KOA groups and this persisted up to 2 years after disease onset. During a pre-radiographic disease period, the odds of developing accelerated KOA were greater in people with worsening disease activity [versus typical KOA OR (95% confidence interval [CI]): 1.58 (1.08 to 2.33); versus no KOA: 2.39 (1.55 to 3.71)] or cumulative damage [versus typical KOA: 1.69 (1.14 to 2.51); versus no KOA: 2.11 (1.41 to 3.16)]. Conclusions MR-based disease activity and cumulative damage metrics may be prognostic markers to help identify people at risk for accelerated onset and progression of knee osteoarthritis.

Abstract Background Prior research on accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) was primarily confined to the Osteoarthritis Initiative, which was enriched with people with risk factors for knee osteoarthritis (KOA). It is unclear how often AKOA develops in a community-based cohort and whether we can replicate prior findings from the Osteoarthritis Initiative in another cohort. Hence, we determined the incidence and characteristics of AKOA among women in the Chingford Study, which is a prospective community-based cohort. Methods The Chingford Study had 1003 women with quinquennial knee radiographs over 15 years. We divided the 15-year observation period into three consecutive 5-year phases. Within each 5-year phase, we selected 3 groups of participants among women who started a phase without KOA (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] 1 in 7 women with incident KOA had AKOA. Like the Osteoarthritis Initiative, people with AKOA were more likely to have greater age and BMI.

Background: Optimism has been shown to be positively associated with better cardiovascular health (CVH). However, there is a dearth of prospective studies showing the benefits of optimism on CVH, especially in the presence of adversities, i.e., psychosocial risks. This study examines the prospective relationship between optimism and CVH outcomes based on the Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metrics and whether multilevel psychosocial risks modify the aforementioned relationship.Methods: We examined self-reported optimism and CVH using harmonized data from two U.S. cohorts: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and Jackson Heart Study (JHS). Modified Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relationship between optimism and CVH using LS7 among MESA participants (N = 3,520) and to examine the relationship of interest based on four biological LS7 metrics (body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose) among JHS and MESA participants (N = 5,541). For all CVH outcomes, we assessed for effect measure modification by psychosocial risk.Results: Among MESA participants, the adjusted risk ratio (aRR) for ideal or intermediate CVH using LS7 comparing participants who reported high or medium optimism to those with the lowest level of optimism was 1.10 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.04–1.16] and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99–1.11), respectively. Among MESA and JHS participants, the corresponding aRRs for having all ideal or intermediate (vs. no poor) metrics based on the four biological LS7 metrics were 1.05 (0.98–1.12) and 1.04 (0.97–1.11), respectively. The corresponding aRRs for having lower cardiovascular risk (0–1 poor metrics) based on the four biological LS7 metrics were 1.01 (0.98–1.03) and 1.01 (0.98–1.03), respectively. There was some evidence of effect modification by neighborhood deprivation for the LS7 outcome and by chronic stress for the ideal or intermediate (no poor) metrics outcome based on the four biological LS7 metrics.Conclusion: Our findings suggest that greater optimism is positively associated with better CVH based on certain LS7 outcomes among a racially/ethnically diverse study population. This relationship may be effect measure modified by specific psychosocial risks. Optimism shows further promise as a potential area for intervention on CVH. However, additional prospective and intervention studies are needed.

Objective: Reduced functional capacity is a hallmark of early pre-clinical stages of heart failure (HF). The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) is a valid measure of lower extremity physical function, has relatively low implementation burden, and is associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality. However, the SPPB-HF association is understudied in older women among whom HF burden is high. Methods: Women (n = 5325; mean age 79 ± 7 years; 34% Black, 18% Hispanic, and 49% White) without prior HF completed the SPPB consisting of standing balance, strength, and walking tests that were summarized as a composite score from 0 (lowest) to 12 (highest), categorized as very low (0–3), low (4–6), medium (7–9), or high (10–12). Participants were followed for up to 8 years for incident HF (306 cases identified). Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, education, smoking, alcohol, diabetes, hypertension, COPD, osteoarthritis, depression, BMI, systolic blood pressure, lipids, glucose, and accelerometer-measured moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary time. Results: Incident HF cases (crude rate per 1000 person-years) in the four SPPB categories (very low to high) were 34 (26.0), 79 (14.5), 128 (9.3), and 65 (5.6). Corresponding multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 2.22 (1.34–3.66), 1.63 (1.11–2.38), 1.39 (1.00–1.94), and 1.00 (referent; P-trend0.10. Conclusion: Lower SPPB scores were associated with greater risk of incident HF in older women even after accounting for differences in HF risk factors and objectively measured PA. Implementing the SPPB in clinical settings could potentially enhance individual-level HF risk assessment, which should be further explored.

Objective: We sought to examine the prospective association of vitamin K with radiographic progression of knee osteoarthritis. Methods: In OAI, 1977 participants with radiographic knee OA and having dietary data at baseline were followed up to 12, 24, 36 and 48 months. Vitamin K was assessed with a Block Brief Food Frequency Questionnaire completed at baseline. To evaluate knee OA progression, we used quantitative medial tibiofemoral joint space width (JSW) based on plain radiographs. Progression was defined by measured Joints Space Width (JSW). The generalized linear mixed model was used to test the association of vitamin K and change in JSW over time, while adjusting for baseline KL grade and other potential confounding factors. Results: We found a relationship between dietary Vitamin K with structural progression of knee osteoarthritis measured by quantitative JSW in a dose response manner. When stratified among KL groups, a significant trend was seen in the KL2 (p ​

Objective To determine if people with incident accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) were more likely to receive a pharmacological treatment or arthroscopic knee surgery than those with typical knee osteoarthritis (KOA) or no KOA. Methods We conducted a nested cohort study using data from baseline and the first 8 years of the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Eligible participants had no radiographic KOA at baseline (Kellgren‐Lawrence [KL] < 2). We classified three groups using KL grades: 1) AKOA: knee progressed to advanced‐stage KOA (KL 3/4) in 4 years or less, 2) typical KOA: knee increased in KL grade by 8 years (excluding AKOA), and 3) No KOA: no change in KL grade by 8 years. The outcome was self‐reported arthroscopic knee surgery or a pharmacological treatment option: nonsteroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), hyaluronic acid injections, intra‐articular corticosteroid injections, or prescription analgesics. Between‐group differences in therapeutic use were evaluated with Chi‐square tests. Results Adults who developed AKOA (n = 92) were more likely to report arthroscopic knee surgery (AKOA: 32%, KOA [n = 380]: 8%, no KOA [n = 875]: 3%; P < 0.001), hyaluronic acid injections (AKOA: 10%, KOA: 4%, no KOA: 1%; P < 0.001), intra‐articular corticosteroid injections (AKOA: 30%, KOA: 7%, no KOA: 4%; P < 0.001), and NSAID use (over the counter: AKOA: 65%, KOA: 48%, and no KOA: 46%; P = 0.003; prescription: AKOA: 61%, KOA: 43%, no KOA: 41%; P = 0.002). Conclusion Adults with AKOA are more likely to receive pharmacological treatment or arthroscopic knee surgery than their peers. Adults with AKOA are an important patient population that is understudied in clinical research despite their use of greater health care resources.

Abstract Background To determine if adults with incident accelerated knee osteoarthritis (KOA) are more likely to have degenerative knee ligaments or tendons compared to individuals with typical or no KOA. Methods We identified 3 sex-matched groups among Osteoarthritis Initiative participants who had a knee without radiographic KOA at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL]

Abstract Background Accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) is characterized by more pain, impaired physical function, and greater likelihood to receive a joint replacement compared to individuals who develop the typical gradual onset of disease. Prognostic tools are needed to determine which structural pathologies precede the development of AKOA compared to individuals without AKOA. Therefore, the purpose of this manuscript was to determine which pre-radiographic structural features precede the development of AKOA. Methods The sample comprised participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) who had at least one radiographically normal knee at baseline (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] grade 3) and No AKOA. The index visit was the study visit when participants met criteria for AKOA or a matched timepoint for those who did not develop AKOA. Magnetic resonance (MR) images were assessed for 12 structural features at the OAI baseline, and 1 and 2 years prior to the index visit. Separate logistic regression models (i.e. OAI baseline, 1 and 2 years prior) were used to determine which pre-radiographic structural features were more likely to antedate the development of AKOA compared to individuals not developing AKOA. Results At the OAI baseline visit, degenerative cruciate ligaments (Odds Ratio [OR] = 2.2, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.3,3.5), infrapatellar fat pad signal intensity alteration (OR = 2.0, 95%CI = 1.2,3.2), medial/lateral meniscal pathology (OR = 2.1/2.4, 95%CI = 1.3,3.4/1.5,3.8), and greater quantitative knee effusion-synovitis (OR = 2.2, 95%CI = 1.4,3.4) were more likely to antedate the development of AKOA when compared to those that did not develop AKOA. These results were similar at one and two years prior to disease onset. Additionally, medial meniscus extrusion at one year prior to disease onset (OR = 3.5, 95%CI = 2.1,6.0) increased the likelihood of developing AKOA. Conclusions Early ligamentous degeneration, effusion/synovitis, and meniscal pathology precede the onset of AKOA and may be prognostic biomarkers.

GWAS have identified more than 500 genetic loci associated with blood lipid levels. Here, the authors report a genome-wide analysis of interactions between genetic markers and physical activity, and find that physical activity modifies the effects of four genetic loci on HDL or LDL cholesterol.

Background Presence of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is associated with a higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, cancer, and mortality. The relationship between a healthy lifestyle and CHIP is unknown. Methods and Results This analysis included 8709 postmenopausal women (mean age, 66.5 years) enrolled in the WHI (Women's Health Initiative), free of cancer or cardiovascular disease, with deep‐coverage whole genome sequencing data available. Information on lifestyle factors (body mass index, smoking, physical activity, and diet quality) was obtained, and a healthy lifestyle score was created on the basis of healthy criteria met (0 point [least healthy] to 4 points [most healthy]). CHIP was derived on the basis of a prespecified list of leukemogenic driver mutations. The prevalence of CHIP was 8.6%. A higher healthy lifestyle score was not associated with CHIP (multivariable‐adjusted odds ratio [OR] [95% CI], 0.99 [0.80–1.23] and 1.13 [0.93–1.37]) for the upper (3 or 4 points) and middle category (2 points), respectively, versus referent (0 or 1 point). Across score components, a normal and overweight body mass index compared with obese was significantly associated with a lower odds for CHIP (OR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.57–0.88] and 0.83 [95% CI, 0.68–1.01], respectively; P‐trend 0.0015). Having never smoked compared with being a current smoker tended to be associated with lower odds for CHIP. Conclusions A healthy lifestyle, based on a composite score, was not related to CHIP among postmenopausal women. However, across individual lifestyle factors, having a normal body mass index was strongly associated with a lower prevalence of CHIP. These findings support the idea that certain healthy lifestyle factors are associated with a lower frequency of CHIP.

Background: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may adversely influence cardiometabolic risk. However, few studies have examined if the timing of early life PFAS exposure modifies their relation to cardiometabolic risk. We examined the influence of gestational and childhood PFAS exposure on adolescents’ cardiometabolic risk. Methods: We quantified concentrations of four PFAS (perfluorooctanoate [PFOA], perfluorooctane sulfonate [PFOS], perfluorononanoate [PFNA], and perfluorohexane sulfonate [PFHxS]) in sera collected during pregnancy, at birth, and at ages 3, 8, and 12 years from 221 mother–child pairs in the HOME Study (enrolled 2003–06, Cincinnati, Ohio). We measured cardiometabolic risk factors using physical examinations, fasting serum biomarkers, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans at age 12 years. Cardiometabolic risk summary scores were calculated by summing age- and sex-standardized z-scores for individual cardiometabolic risk factors. We used multiple informant models to estimate covariate-adjusted associations of serum PFAS concentrations (log2-transformed) at each visit with cardiometabolic risk scores and their individual components, and tested for differences in associations across visits. Results: The associations of serum PFOA concentrations with cardiometabolic risk scores differed across visits (P for heterogeneity = 0.03). Gestational and cord serum PFOA concentrations were positively associated with cardiometabolic risk scores (βs and 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]: gestational 0.8 [0.0, 1.6]; cord 0.9 [-0.1, 1.9] per interquartile range increase). These positive associations were primarily driven by homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance index (β = 0.3 [0.1, 0.5]) and adiponectin to leptin ratio (β = -0.5 [-1.0, 0.0]). Other individual cardiometabolic risk factors associated with gestational PFOA included insulin and waist circumference. Gestational and cord PFHxS were also associated with higher cardiometabolic risk scores (βs: gestational 0.9 [0.2, 1.6]; cord 0.9 [0.1, 1.7]). Conclusion: In this cohort of children with higher gestational PFOA exposure, fetal exposure to PFOA and PFHxS was associated with unfavorable cardiometabolic risk in adolescence.

Background Women represent a large proportion of the growing heart failure (HF) epidemic, yet data are lacking regarding optimal dietary and lifestyle prevention strategies for them. Specifically, the association between magnesium intake and HF in a multiracial cohort of women is uncertain. Methods and Results We included 97 725 postmenopausal women from the WHI (Women's Health Initiative) observational studies and placebo arms of the hormone trial. Magnesium intake was measured at baseline by a 122‐item validated food‐frequency questionnaire and stratified into quartiles based on diet only, total intake (diet with supplements), and residual intake (calibration by total energy). Incident hospitalized HF (2153 events, median follow‐up 8.1 years) was adjudicated by medical record abstraction. In Cox proportional hazards models, we evaluated the association between magnesium intake and HF adjusting for potential confounders. Analyses were repeated on a subcohort (n=18 745; median‐follow‐up, 13.2 years) for whom HF cases were subclassified into preserved ejection fraction (526 events), reduced ejection fraction (291 events) or unknown (168 events). Most women were white (85%) with a mean age of 63. Compared with the highest quartile of magnesium intake, women in the lowest quartile had an increased risk of incident HF, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.32 (95% CI, 1.02–1.71) for diet only (P trend=0.03), 1.26 (95% CI, 1.03–1.56) for total intake, and 1.31 (95% CI, 1.02–1.67) for residual intake. Results did not significantly vary by race. Subcohort analyses showed low residual magnesium intake was associated with HF with reduced ejection fraction (hazard ratio, 1.81, lowest versus highest quartile; 95% CI, 1.08–3.05) but not HF with preserved ejection fraction. Conclusions Low magnesium intake in a multiracial cohort of postmenopausal women was associated with a higher risk of incident HF, especially HF with reduced ejection fraction.

Abstract Background Greater age and body mass index are strong risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA). Older and overweight individuals may be more susceptible to OA because these factors alter tissue turnover in menisci, articular cartilage, and bone via altered glucose homeostasis and inflammation. Understanding the role of inflammation and glucose homeostasis on structural features of early-stage OA may help identify therapeutic targets to delay or prevent the onset of OA among subsets of adults with these features. We examined if serum concentrations of glucose homeostasis (glucose, glycated serum protein [GSP]) or inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP]) were associated with prevalent knee bone marrow lesions (BMLs) or effusion among adults without knee OA. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study using baseline data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. We selected participants who had no radiographic knee OA but were at high risk for knee OA. Blinded staff conducted assays for CRP, GSP, and glucose. Readers segmented BML volume and effusion using semi-automated programs. Our outcomes were prevalent BML (knee with a BML volume > 1 cm3) and effusion (knee with an effusion volume > 7.5 cm3). We used logistic regression models with CRP, GSP, or glucose concentrations as the predictors. We adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE) scores. Results We included 343 participants: mean age = 59 ± 9 years, BMI = 27.9 ± 4.5 kg/m2, PASE score = 171 ± 82, and 64% female. Only CRP was associated with BML prevalence (odds ratio [OR] = 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09 to 1.87). For effusion, we found an interaction between BMI and CRP: only among adults with a BMI

Abstract Background Risk prediction algorithms increase understanding of which patients are at greatest risk of a harmful outcome. Our goal was to create a clinically useful prediction algorithm for structural progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA), using medial joint space loss as a proxy; and to quantify the benefit of including periarticular bone mineral density (BMD) in the algorithm. Methods Participants were from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) Progression Cohort, with X-ray readings of medial joint space at 36- and 48-month visits, and a 30- or 36-month medial-to-lateral tibial BMD ratio (M:L BMD ratio) value. Loss of medial joint space was the outcome and clinically available factors associated with OA progression were employed in the base prediction algorithm, with M:L BMD ratio added to an enhanced prediction algorithm. The benefit of adding M:L BMD ratio was evaluated by change in area under the ROC curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results Five hundred thirty-three participants were included; 51 (14%) had medial joint space loss; 47% were female; the mean (SD) age was 64.6 (9.2) years and BMI was 29.6 (4.8) kg/m2. The base algorithm model included age, BMI, gender, recent injury, knee pain, and hand OA as predictors and had an AUC value of 0.65. The algorithm adding M:L BMD ratio had an AUC value of 0.73, and the AUC, NRI and IDI were all significantly improved (p ≤ 0.002). Conclusions This clinical prediction algorithm predicts structural progression in individuals with OA using only clinically available predictors supplemented by the M:L BMD ratio, a biomarker that could be made available at clinical sites.

Background: Evidence of the association between daily variation in air pollution and risk of stroke is inconsistent, potentially due to the heterogeneity in stroke etiology. Objectives: To estimate the associations between daily variation in ambient air pollution and risk of stroke and its subtypes among participants of the Women's Health Initiative, a large prospective cohort study in the United States. Methods: We used national-scale, log-normal ordinary kriging models to estimate daily concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), respirable particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur dioxide, and ozone at participant addresses. Stroke was adjudicated by trained neurologists and classified as ischemic or hemorrhagic. Ischemic strokes were further classified according to the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) classification. We used a time-stratified case-crossover approach to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of the risk of stroke associated with an interquartile range (IQR) increase in concentrations of each air pollutant. We performed stratified analysis to examine whether associations varied across subgroups defined by age at stroke onset, US census region, smoking status, body mass index, and prior history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, heart or circulation problems, or arterial fibrillation at enrollment. Results: Among 5417 confirmed strokes between 1993 and 2012, 4300 (79.4%) were classified as ischemic and 924 (17.1%) as hemorrhagic. No association was observed between day-to-day variation in any pollutant and risk of total stroke, ischemic stroke, or specific etiologies of ischemic stroke. We observed a positive association between risk of hemorrhagic stroke and NO2 and NOx in the 3 days prior to stroke with OR of 1.24 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.52) and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) per IQR increase, respectively. The observed associations with hemorrhagic stroke were more pronounced among non-obese participants. Conclusions: In this large cohort of post-menopausal US women, daily NO2 and NOx were associated with higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke, but ambient levels of four other air pollutants were not associated with higher risk of total stroke, ischemic stroke, or ischemic stroke subtypes. Keywords: Air pollution, Hemorrhagic stroke, Ischemic stroke, Case-crossover, United States

Background Dietary patterns are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the general population, but diet–CVD association in populations with diabetes mellitus is limited. Our objective was to examine the association between diet quality and CVD risk in a population with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods and Results We analyzed prospective data from 5809 women with prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus at baseline from the Women's Health Initiative. Diet quality was defined using alternate Mediterranean, Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension, Paleolithic, and American Diabetes Association dietary pattern scores calculated from a validated food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable Cox's proportional hazard regression was used to analyze the risk of incident CVD. During mean 12.4 years of follow‐up, 1454 (25%) incident CVD cases were documented. Women with higher alternate Mediterranean, Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension, and American Diabetes Association dietary pattern scores had a lower risk of CVD compared with women with lower scores (Q5 v Q1) (hazard ratio [HR]aMed 0.77, 95% CI 0.65–0.93; HRDASH 0.69, 95% CI 0.58–0.83; HRADA 0.71, 95% CI 0.59–0.86). No association was observed between the Paleolithic score and CVD risk. Conclusions Dietary patterns that emphasize higher intake of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, nuts/seeds, legumes, a high unsaturated:saturated fat ratio, and lower intake of red and processed meats, added sugars, and sodium are associated with lower CVD risk in postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Background: Genome-wide association studies have identified polymorphisms linked to both smoking exposure and risk of lung cancer. The degree to which lung cancer risk is driven by increased smoking, genetics, or gene–environment interactions is not well understood. Methods: We analyzed associations between 28 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with smoking quantity and lung cancer in 7156 African-American females in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), then analyzed main effects of top nominally significant SNPs and interactions between SNPs, cigarettes per day (CPD) and pack-years for lung cancer in an independent, multi-center case–control study of African-American females and males (1078 lung cancer cases and 822 controls). Findings: Nine nominally significant SNPs for CPD in WHI were associated with incident lung cancer (corrected p-values from 0.027 to 6.09 × 10−5). CPD was found to be a nominally significant effect modifier between SNP and lung cancer for six SNPs, including CHRNA5 rs2036527[A](betaSNP*CPD = −0.017, p = 0.0061, corrected p = 0.054), which was associated with CPD in a previous genome-wide meta-analysis of African-Americans. Interpretation: These results suggest that chromosome 15q25.1 variants are robustly associated with CPD and lung cancer in African-Americans and that the allelic dose effect of these polymorphisms on lung cancer risk is most pronounced in lighter smokers.

BackgroundThe relationship between light intensity physical activity (PA), which is common in older adults, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is unclear. This study examined associations of accelerometer‐measured PA intensity with CVD risk factors in older women of different race‐ethnicities. Methods and ResultsCross‐sectional analyses were conducted in 4832 women (mean age 78.9 years; 52.5% white, 30.5% black, 17.1% Hispanic) who were without known CVD and wore triaxial accelerometers a minimum of 4 of 7 days with ≥10 hours/d awake wear‐time. Vector magnitude counts per 15‐s epoch were used to define time spent in low light (19–225 counts/15 s), high light (226–518), and moderate‐to‐vigorous; ≥519) intensity PA. Fasting CVD biomarkers, resting blood pressure, waist girth, body mass index, and 10‐year predicted CVD risk (Reynolds Risk Score) were measured. After adjusting for age, wear time, race‐ethnicity, and potential confounders, each PA measure was favorably associated with mean high‐density lipoprotein, triglyceride, glucose, C‐reactive protein, body mass index, waist girth, and Reynolds Risk Score (P

BackgroundGiven high rates of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, black persons are at risk to develop heart failure. The association of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and heart failure in black adults is underresearched. The purpose of this study was to explore whether greater MVPA was associated with lower risk of heart failure hospitalizations (HFHs) among black adults with normal ejection fractions. Methods and ResultsWe performed a prospective analysis of 4066 black adults who participated in the Jackson Heart Study and who had physical activity measured, had normal ejection fraction on 2‐dimensional echocardiograms, and were followed for 7 years for incident HFH. We used Cox proportional regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, and chronic kidney disease and examined effect modification by sex and body mass index. Of the eligible population, 1925 participants, according to the duration of MVPA, had poor health (0 minutes/week), 1332 had intermediate health (1–149 minutes/week), and 809 had ideal health (≥150 minutes/week). There were 168 incident HFHs. MVPA for intermediate and ideal health was associated with decreasing risk of incident HFH (hazard ratio: 0.70 [95% confidence interval, 49–1.00] and 0.35 [95% confidence interval, 0.19–0.64], respectively; Ptrend=0.003). The full model revealed hazard ratios of 0.74 [95% confidence interval, 0.52–1.07] and 0.41 [95% confidence interval, 0.22–0.74], respectively. There was no effect modification between MVPA and body mass index or sex on incident HFH. ConclusionsA dose‐response relationship between increasing levels of MVPA and protection from incident HFH was found in black men and women with normal ejection fractions.

BackgroundHow physical activity (PA) and sitting time may change after first myocardial infarction (MI) and the association with mortality in postmenopausal women is unknown. Methods and ResultsParticipants included postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative‐Observational Study, aged 50 to 79 years who experienced a clinical MI during the study. This analysis included 856 women who had adequate data on PA exposure and 533 women for sitting time exposures. Sitting time was self‐reported at baseline, year 3, and year 6. Self‐reported PA was reported at baseline through year 8. Change in PA and sitting time were calculated as the difference between the cumulative average immediately following MI and the cumulative average immediately preceding MI. The 4 categories of change were: maintained low, decreased, increased, and maintained high. The cut points were ≥7.5 metabolic equivalent of task hours/week versus

BackgroundFew studies have reported associations between periodontitis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in older women, which is the objective of the present investigation. Methods and ResultsParticipants were 57 001 postmenopausal women ages 55 to 89 years (mean 68 years; >85% 60 and older) who were enrolled (1993–1998) in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study, and were without known CVD when history of periodontitis and edentulism was assessed by questionnaire at study Year‐5 (1998–2003). There were 3589 incident CVD events and 3816 total deaths during a mean follow‐up of 6.7 years. In multivariable analysis, periodontitis was not associated with CVD events, but was associated with higher total mortality (hazard ratio (HR)=1.12, 95% CI: 1.05–1.21). Edentulism was associated with higher age‐ and smoking‐adjusted risks of CVD (HR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.27–1.59) and mortality (HR=1.47, 95% CI: 1.32–1.63). Further adjustment eliminated the association with CVD, but mortality remained significantly increased (HR=1.17, 95% CI: 1.02–1.33). Stratification on age, race‐ethnicity, smoking, and diabetes mellitus yielded comparable results; however, edentulism was more strongly associated with CVD in women reporting ≥1 dental visit (HR=1.57) compared with

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The aim of this study is to determine whether quantitative measures of knee structures including effusion, bone marrow lesions, cartilage, and meniscal damage can improve upon an existing model of demographic and clinical characteristics to classify accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA). METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We conducted a case-control study using data from baseline and four annual follow-up visits from the osteoarthritis initiative. Participants had no radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA) at baseline. AKOA is defined as progressing from no KOA to advance-stage KOA in at least 1 knee within 48 months. AKOA knees were matched 1:1 based on sex to (1) participants who did not develop KOA within 48 months and (2) participants who developed KOA but not AKOA. Analyses were person based. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to determine the important variables and percent of variance explained. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: A previous classification and regression tree analysis found that age, BMI, serum glucose, and femorotibial angle explained 31% of the variability between those who did and did not develop AKOA. Including structural measurements as candidate variables yielded a model that included effusion, BMI, serum glucose, cruciate ligament degeneration and coronal slope and explained 39% of the variability. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Knee structural measurements improve classification of participants who developed AKOA Versus those who did not. Further research is needed to better classify patients at risk for AKOA.