Search

Applying evidence builds on the conclusions of the assessment of the evidence. The aim of the chapter is to describe a range of ways of summarising and visualising different types of evidence so that it can be used in various decision-making processes. Evidence can also be presented as part of evidence capture sheets, argument maps, mind maps, theories of change, Bayesian networks or evidence restatements.

Delivering a revolution in evidence use requires a cultural change across society. For a wide range of groups (practitioners, knowledge brokers, organisations, organisational leaders, policy makers, funders, researchers, journal publishers, the wider conservation community, educators, writers, and journalists), options are described to facilitate a change in practice, and a series of downloadable checklists are provided.

The agricultural transition to more resilient and efficient farming is transforming food production systems in many regions globally. An important element of this global transition is exhibited through technological developments in farming practices. Their implications on the rural livelihoods employed in agriculture, however, have not been analysed at a global level. Here, we quantify the number of agricultural labourers that will be needed in agriculture following this agrarian transition. We focus on the potential labour reserves by simulating two what-if scenarios of incremental and very fast transition of mechanisation development in food systems and compare them to a baseline resembling the current state of agricultural employment. Presently, agriculture requires 286 million full-time equivalent workers (AWU) to reach the 2011-2015 production volumes of 21 major agricultural products. An incremental mechanisation development decreases the labour requirements to 74 million AWU while a very fast transition in mechanisation further reduces requirements to 19 million AWU. Given the significant implications of agricultural mechanisation on global labour requirements, our analysis demonstrates the need for forthcoming policies to consider the viability of rural groups led to exit agriculture in order to ensure a meaningful transition for the smallholders globally.

Additional file 1: Table S1. Details of socioeconomic position categories and maternal education levels. Table S2. Details of model covariates, sample exclusions, sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses for each of the different outcomes. Table S3. Pairwise correlations between each of the growth measures. Table S4. Predicted estimates (continuous outcomes) and percent at the threshold (binary outcomes) (99% CIs) at the 25th, 50th and 75th centiles of iodine concentration and p-overall* for ‘average’ participants†. Figure S1. A directed acyclic graph used to identify confounders and competing exposures in the association between maternal iodine concentration and birth or pregnancy outcomes. Figure S2. Flow chart of participant inclusions and exclusions. Figure S3. Estimated APGAR score at 1 minute and percent with congenital anomalies, using imputed datasets for the full sample. Figure S4. Estimated biparietal diameter, femur length and abdominal circumference, from ultrasound scans at 34 weeks’ gestation, across the range of maternal I:Cr concentrations using imputed datasets for the full sample. Figure S5. Estimated birthweight centile in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S6. Estimated birthweight in grams in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S7. Probability of being small for gestational age in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S8. Probability of low birthweight in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S9. Apgar score at 5 minutes after birth in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S10. Estimated head circumference at birth in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S11. Estimated head circumference from 34 week ultrasound scan in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S12. Estimated weight from 34 week ultrasound scan in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S13. Probability of preterm birth in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups. Figure S14. Probability of congenital anomalies in all participants, sensitivity analysis and subgroups.

The cumulative impacts of incremental development present governments all over the world with major difficulties. Well-intended strategic approaches often fail, in whole or in part. In Australia, a joint Federal/State agreement in 1992 initiated reforms of State environmental legislation and policy, which led to the Council of Australian Governments Water Reform Framework 1994—an agreement to introduce comprehensive water reforms targeted at both financial and environmental issues. The Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s largest catchment, overlaps four States plus the small Australian Capital Territory. In 1995 pressing problems of land and water degradation, and the decline of widespread and important environmental values in the Basin, led only to a cap (an administrative limit or ceiling) on river water extraction, even though the importance of the surface water/groundwater connection was evident. Moreover, State Governments have been extremely slow to implement core groundwater reforms added to the Framework in 1996—with some important elements not yet implemented after 12 years. This delay, combined with the failure of States to implement commitments to the precautionary management of natural resources, has magnified the environmental and economic crisis facing the Basin. This crisis appears likely to worsen if current climate change predictions eventuate. Recent initiatives by the Australian Government acknowledge past procrastination, and provide a new administrative framework—an approach will only work if backed by political intelligence and will-power, and good-will and cooperation amongst State premiers. These factors have been absent in the past. The paper concludes with key recommendations aimed at comprehensive and integrated management of the cumulative impacts of incremental water-related development on a catchment-by-catchment basis.

National audience; Un Atlas de paysages est un document destiné " à dresser l'état des lieux des paysages et des dynamiques qui les transforment " (Luginbühl 1994). Il est réalisé à l'échelle du département ou de la région, le plus souvent à l'initiative de la Direction Régionale de l'Environnement, et par une équipe généralement pluridisciplinaire. Afin que les Atlas de paysages constituent " la formulation d'un état de référence partagé " (Brunet-Vinck 2004), la Direction de l'Architecture et le l'Urbanisme a proposé en 1994 un cadre méthodologique explicitant la façon de structurer la maîtrise d'ouvrage et donnant des étapes directrices claires pour analyser le paysage (Bourget 2011). Selon la méthodologie proposée, la caractérisation des paysages " ne doit pas se contenter d'une description de l'utilisation du sol, mais tenter de restituer les caractères de l'ensemble de l'aspect du territoire et de ce que l'on en perçoit ", notamment par le biais d'une analyse de la dimension " sensible " du paysage. A ce titre l'atlas de Paysages est un objet hybride où la subjectivité de l'auteur est clairement mise en avant (Davodeau 2009). Utiliser ce type d'objet pour la qualification des paysages pose donc question et suppose de s'appuyer sur une méthodologie rigoureuse où la part de la variabilité introduite par l'auteur puisse être extraite. Les différents outils d'analyse textuelle (Tropes / ALCESTE / IRAMUTEQ) reposent sur une hypothèse de stabilité interne du corpus (Rousselière & Vézina 2009) dérivant de celle de répétition (Reinert 2003). Ceci pose un problème fondamental pour traiter de ce type de données (à l'instar de celles provenant d'entretiens semi-directifs, problème bien souligné par Dalud-Vincent (2011)). Outre la méthode traditionnelle en analyse de contenu de comparaison entre une classification experte et une classification automatique (Jenny 1997), nous avons mobilisé deux méthodes complémentaires dérivant des méthodes d'évaluation économétrique des programmes (Imbens & Wooldridge 2009). Tout en renouant avec les objectifs initiaux de la statistique textuelle (voir Lebart & Salem 1994), notre proposition transposant cette littérature dans un cadre d'analyse de données textuelles est à notre connaissance originale. Une première dite " d'expérience naturelle " s'appuie sur le fait que de nombreuses unités paysagères débordent les frontières administratives départementales, alors que les atlas des paysages sont propres à un département. En raison de cette exogénéité administrative, la différence de vocabulaire utilisé peut être alors raisonnablement attribuée à la personnalité des auteurs. Une deuxième méthode consiste à apparier sur des caractéristiques observables des territoires (type d'occupation du sol) les unités paysagères proches et de faire une typologie des vocabulaires utilisés d'après les caractéristiques des producteurs d'atlas des paysages. Pour ces deux méthodes, différents indicateurs de subjectivité sont proposés.

A quarter of a century of daily rainfall data from the Global Telecommunications System are used to define\ud the temporal and spatial variability of the start of the wet season over Africa and surrounding extreme south of Europe and parts of the Middle East. From 1978 to 2002, the start of the wet season arrived later in the year for the majority of the region, as time progressed. In some parts of the continent, there was an annual increase in the start date of up to 4 days per year. On average, the start of the wet season arrived 9–21 days later from 1978 to 2002, depending on the threshold used to define the start of the rains (varying from 10–30 mm over 2 days, with no dry period in the following 10 days).\ud \ud It is noted that the inter-annual variability of the start of the wet season is high with the range of start dates varying on average from 116 to 142 days dependent on the threshold used to determine the start date. These results may have important implications for agriculturists on all levels (from the individual farmer to those responsible for regional food supply), as knowledge of potential future climate changes starts to play an increasingly important role in the agricultural decision-making process, such as sowing and harvesting times.

Changes in climate variability and, in particular, changes in extreme climate events are likely to be of far more significance for environmentally vulnerable regions than changes in the mean state. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) play an important role in modulating rainfall variability. Consequently, SSTs can be prescribed in global and regional climate modelling in order to study the physical mechanisms behind rainfall and its extremes. Using a satellite-based daily rainfall historical data set, this paper describes the main patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa, identifies the\ud dates when extreme rainfall occurs within these patterns, and shows the effect of resolution in trying to identify the location and intensity of SST anomalies associated with these extremes in the Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean. Derived from a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the results also suggest that, for the spatial pattern accounting for the highest amount of variability, extremes extracted at a higher spatial resolution do give a clearer indication regarding the location and intensity of anomalous SST regions. As the amount of variability explained by each spatial pattern defined by the PCA decreases, it would appear that extremes extracted at a lower resolution give a clearer indication of anomalous SST\ud regions.