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Skillful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for various sectors of society but pose a grand scientific challenge. Recently, machine learning-based weather forecasting models outperform the most successful numerical weather predictions generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), but have not yet surpassed conventional models at subseasonal timescales. This paper introduces FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, encompassing five upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S, trained on 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data, outperforms the ECMWFs state-of-the-art Subseasonal-to-Seasonal model in ensemble mean and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, notably enhancing global precipitation forecast. The improved performance of FuXi-S2S can be primarily attributed to its superior capability to capture forecast uncertainty and accurately predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), extending the skillful MJO prediction from 30 days to 36 days. Moreover, FuXi-S2S not only captures realistic teleconnections associated with the MJO but also emerges as a valuable tool for discovering precursor signals, offering researchers insights and potentially establishing a new paradigm in Earth system science research.

The international community is now acutely aware of the negative global impact of climate change. But efforts to advance global climate agendas will not go far without China and the United States leading the way, given the two major powers’ sheer economic size, global influence, and contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. A growing consensus is that China and the United States share common interests in promoting a global transition toward a carbon-free future. China-U.S. climate cooperation may also encourage other major carbon emitters to shoulder greater international responsibilities and help advance a global low-carbon agenda. This article previews the Biden administration’s climate and energy policies, analyzes the state and impact of China-U.S. interactions in climate governance and energy transition, and presents a set of policy recommendations on how to build trust and increase cooperation between the world’s largest economies and carbon emitters. Washington’s green recovery-centered climate plan will not go far without advancing international cooperation in industrial restructuring, infrastructure investment, emerging key resource development, and market demand. Likewise, Beijing’s ambitious goals of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 will also be difficult to attain if it cannot accelerate green economic growth at home and shoulder the joint leadership of climate governance abroad. In this context, China-U.S. climate cooperation and joint efforts toward carbon neutrality could serve as an icebreaker for the current frosty bilateral relationship.