Search

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, China has committed to reducing its national carbon emission intensity, which is a measure of carbon dioxide produced per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), by 65% by 2030 compared with the level in 2005. The government is pursuing corresponding abatement initiatives to achieve this goal. Coupling the physical data of sectoral energy inputs and emissions with a mixed exogenous/endogenous input–output model, this study first projected the carbon emissions in 2030 under a business-as-usual baseline and then investigated the potential economic effects of the "command-and-control" approach for reducing carbon emissions by limiting production capacity and strengthening forest carbon sink management. Three carbon abatement scenarios were evaluated from the perspectives of social equity, abatement efficiency, and forest carbon sinks. Our results indicated that, under the 2030 carbon emission goal, the GDP in China would decline by 17.17–41.26 trillion yuan (equivalent to a marginal abatement cost of 2315–5387 yuan per ton of carbon dioxide reduction), depending on different policy initiatives. The policy of carbon reduction for high-emission sectors only is more cost-effective and economically efficient and has resulted in fewer negative economic impacts than the policy of requiring all economic sectors to do so. Asking high–carbon emission industries to undertake carbon abatement can further reduce national carbon emission intensity. Additionally, promoting forest carbon sinks as an abatement initiative also demonstrates substantial economic benefits for society. • The economic effects of command-and-control abatement policies under China's 2030 carbon emission goal are investigated. • A mixed input–output model is applied and coupled with the physical data of sectoral energy inputs and emissions. • The policy of abatement for high-emission sectors only is more cost-effective than a requirement for all economic sectors. • Promoting forest carbon sinks as an abatement strategy demonstrates substantial economic benefits for society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recursive dynamic spatial equilibrium model is used to examine the global competitiveness of Canadian softwood lumber. To address the restrictive assumption of softwood lumber homogeneity, this study disaggregates softwood lumber into two product groups: ( i) higher grade lumber that includes appearance, select structural-grade lumber, and Japanese J-grade lumber; and ( ii) lower grade lumber that includes the United States dimension lumber that is commonly used in construction and utility- and economy-grade lumber. Factors that may affect global softwood lumber markets are simulated in the model to project global softwood lumber trade flows from 2012 to 2021. The results indicate that the reduced lumber supply in western Canada caused by the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestation combined with demand increases in several regions of the world will contribute to a global increase in softwood lumber prices. Our results suggest that the global price increase will be greater for lower grade softwood lumber than for higher grade lumber. The United States and China will continue to be the top two markets for lower grade Canadian softwood lumber. Although Canadian exports of lower grade softwood lumber to the United States are expected to increase marginally over time in response to the recovery of American housing starts, softwood lumber exports to China are expected to drop significantly, and it is forecasted that exports from the Russian Federation will fill that void. These findings provide strong market signals for both forest managers and the forest-products industry to assess supply chain profitability and adjust production planning accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to conduct a financial benefit-cost analysis of producing hybrid willow biomass on riparian, in-field, and high-sloped agricultural land in the eastern Canadian province of Prince Edward Island for use as an on-farm or off-farm source of renewable energy. The off-farm use analysis indicated that, at a current price of $50 per dry matter tonne (DMT−1) sold to a municipal biomass energy plant, the willow cropping system would not represent an attractive investment opportunity for farmers. Prices would have to increase to the range of $81–$116 DMT−1 (depending on the scenario considered) before such an investment would be profitable. On the other hand, the on-farm use analysis indicated that, at an estimated cost savings of $375 DMT−1 from displacing heating oil by using a biomass boiler to burn the willow chips (at a replacement cost of $56–$137 DMT−1, depending on the scenario), the willow cropping system would represent a very attractive investment opportunity for farmers. Using such a system could reduce heating costs on the farm in the range of 64–85%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (SBW) ( (Clemens)) outbreaks on 2.8 million hectares of Crown forest land in New Brunswick by coupling an advanced Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) model with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. A total of 16 alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two SBW outbreak severities (moderate versus severe), four SBW control program levels (protecting 0%, 10%, 20%, and 40% of susceptible Crown land forest area), and two pest management strategies ('without' versus 'with' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage). The 'without' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy findings indicated that, under uncontrolled moderate and severe SBW outbreaks, total output in the New Brunswick economy over the 2012-2041 period would decline in present-value terms by CDN$3.3 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively. SBW control via aerial spraying was shown to reduce the negative impacts on output by up to 66% when protecting 40% of susceptible area. Combining SBW control with replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy under moderate and severe outbreaks would reduce the negative impacts on output by a further 1%-18% depending on the level of control implemented. These findings can help forest managers assess the direct and indirect economic effects of forest pest disturbances on regional economies and can also be used together with other sustainable forest management indicators to help broaden the scope of SBW and other forest pest management decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs a benefit-cost analysis framework to estimate market and non-market benefits and costs of controlling future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks on Crown forest lands in New Brunswick, Canada. We used: (i) an advanced timber supply model to project potential timber volume saved, timber value benefits, and costs of pest control efforts; and (ii) a recent contingent valuation method analysis that evaluated non-market benefits (i.e., changes in recreation opportunities and existence values) of controlling future spruce budworm outbreaks in the Province. A total of six alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two uncontrolled future budworm outbreak severities (moderate vs. severe) and, for each severity, three control program levels (protecting 10%, 20%, or 40% of the susceptible Crown land forest area). The economic criteria used to evaluate each scenario included benefit-cost ratios and net present values. Under severe outbreak conditions, results indicated that the highest benefit-cost ratio (4.04) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area, and the highest net present value ($111 M) occurred when protecting 20% (568,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Under moderate outbreak conditions, the highest benefit-cost ratio (3.24) and net present value ($58.7 M) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Inclusion of non-market values generally increased the benefit-cost ratios and net present values of the control programs, and in some cases, led to higher levels of control being supported. Results of this study highlight the importance of including non-market values into the decision making process of forest pest management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study estimates the social benefits of controlling two very different forest insect outbreaks in New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan (SK), namely spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana) and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) (Malacosoma disstria). Using dichotomous choice contingent valuation mail surveys, households in NB and SK were asked to indicate their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for controlling future SBW and FTC outbreaks. A majority of respondents (over 80% in each province) favored controlling outbreaks of these insects. In both provinces, respondents were on average willing to pay more for controlling SBW outbreaks compared to FTC outbreaks. Aggregate social benefits (measured via compensating surplus) associated with proposed insect control programs in NB resulted in annual social benefits of $14.3-20.8 million for SBW control, and $7.9-14.5 million for FTC control. Comparable net benefits in SK were $22.2-32.4 million for SBW control, and $11.7-22.0 million for FTC control. These results highlight the significance and uniqueness of social benefits generated from controlling outbreaks of these insects, and provide a foundation for incorporating them into a full benefit-cost analysis used to help make more informed and efficient policy decisions. La présente étude a évalué les avantages collectifs de la lutte contre les invasions de deuxinsectes forestiers au Nouveau-Brunswick (NB) et en Saskatchewan (SK), à savoir la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana) et la livrée des forêts (FTC) (Malacosoma disstria). Au moyen de sondages postaux élaborés selon la méthode d'évaluation contingente avec choix dichotomiques, nous avons demandéà des ménages au NB et en SK d'indiquer leur consentement à payer pour lutter contre des invasions futures de SBW et de FTC. Une majorité de répondants (soit plus de 80p.100 dans chaque province) a indiquéêtre en faveur de la lutte contre ces insectes. Dans les deuxprovinces, les répondants étaient en moyenne prêts à payer davantage pour la lutte contre la SBW que pour la lutte contre la FTC. Les avantages collectifs globaux (évalués d'après le surplus compensatoire) des programmes de lutte proposés au NB se sont soldés par des avantages collectifs annuels variant de 14,3 à 20,8millions de dollars (M$) dans le cas de la lutte contre la SBW et de 7,9 à 14,5M$ dans le cas de la lutte contre la FTC. En SK, les avantages collectifs nets ont été comparables, variant de 22,2à32,4M$ dans le cas de la lutte contre la SBW, et de 11,7à22,0M$ dans le cas de la lutte contre la FTC. Ces résultats font ressortir l'importance et la valeur unique des avantages collectifs générés par la lutte contre les invasions de ces insectes et fournissent un argument pour les intégrer dans une analyse avantages-coûts afin de favoriser la prise de décisions stratégiques éclairées et efficaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Excessive chemical pesticide application in China has caused serious agriculture environmental pollution in the country. To address this, understanding farmers' environment-friendly pesticide application behavior (FEPAB) is important. However, the divergence in findings of different empirical studies is a major challenge for forming appropriate policies. Using a meta-analysis of 67 empirical studies, this study quantitatively synthesizes the existing research and explores the key factors affecting FEPAB in China and how the influence of different factors on FEPAB changes over time. The results show that: (1) Pesticide application knowledge has the strongest promoting effect on FEPAB, followed by pesticide residue awareness, government subsidies, production safety awareness, environmental pollution awareness, and family income. Meanwhile, Green pesticide price has the strongest inhibiting effect on FEPAB, followed by risk attitude, government publicity and education, household size, land fragmentation, farm income ratio, farm size, and health. (2) The effects of family income, environmental pollution awareness, and pesticide residue awareness on FEPAB strengthen over time. Thus, FEPAB can be promoted by publicizing the application of environment-friendly pesticides, improving farmers' awareness about environmental pollution and the negative impacts of pesticide residues, diversifying farmers' income channels, and increasing subsidies for green pesticide purchases. [Display omitted] • Factors affecting Chinese farmers' environment-friendly pesticide application behavior (FEPAB) are investigated. • Pesticide application knowledge has the strongest promoting effect on FEPAB. • Green pesticide price has the strongest inhibiting effect on FEPAB. • Effects of family income, environmental pollution awareness, and pesticide residue awareness on FEPAB strengthen over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic agglomeration is an important driving force for China's economic growth and the transformation of its industrial structure. However, whether economic agglomeration is accompanied by haze pollution is a major concern for environmental managers and policymakers. As one of the most significant ecological barriers and major economic zones, China's Yellow River basin faces severe air pollution. Hence, taking energy consumption as an input factor and haze pollution as an undesirable output in an output density model, this study investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the transmission mechanisms among economic agglomeration, labor productivity, and haze pollution. We construct a spatial Durbin model to verify the explanatory power of our theoretical model based on panel data for 74 cities in China's Yellow River basin during 2005–2016. Economic agglomeration's effect on haze pollution is further tested using a mediating effect model and the instrumental variable method. The results show that there is an N-shaped relationship between economic agglomeration and haze pollution and a U-shaped relationship between labor productivity and haze pollution. Labor productivity is an important mediator in economic agglomeration's effect on haze pollution. Haze pollution not only has path dependence in the time dimension but also has a significant spillover effect in the spatial dimension. Therefore, we propose actively cultivating urban agglomeration in the Yellow River basin, enhancing the degree of economic agglomeration, and improving regional haze pollution prevention and control mechanisms. • Whether economic agglomeration affects haze pollution is investigated. • A spatial Durbin model is applied using data from 74 cities along the Yellow River basin. • Economic agglomeration affects haze pollution via the mediator of labor productivity. • The relationships among economic agglomeration, labor productivity, and haze pollution are verified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]