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Aim: Accounting for biotic interactions in species distribution models is complicated by the fact that interactions occur at the individual‐level at unknown spatial scales. Standard approaches that ignore individual‐level interactions and focus on aggregate scales are subject to the modifiable aerial unit problem (MAUP) in which incorrect inferences may arise about the sign and magnitude of interspecific effects. Location: Global (simulation) and North Carolina, United States (case study). Taxon: None (simulation) and Aves (case study). Methods: We present a hierarchical species distribution model that includes a Markov point process in which the locations of individuals of one species are modelled as a function of both abiotic variables and the locations of individuals of another species. We applied the model to spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) data on two ecologically similar songbird species—hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina) and black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens)—that segregate over a climate gradient in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. Results: A simulation study indicated that the model can identify the effects of environmental variation and biotic interactions on co‐occurring species distributions. In the case study, there were strong and opposing effects of climate on spatial variation in population densities, but spatial competition did not influence the two species' distributions. Main Conclusions: Unlike existing species distribution models, the framework proposed here overcomes the MAUP and can be used to investigate how population‐level patterns emerge from individual‐level processes, while also allowing for inference on the spatial scale of biotic interactions. Our finding of minimal spatial competition between black‐throated blue warbler and hooded warbler adds to the growing body of literature suggesting that abiotic factors may be more important than competition at low‐latitude range margins. The model can be extended to accommodate count data and binary data in addition to SCR data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defensive traits are hypothesized to benefit prey by reducing predation risk from a focal predator but come at a cost to the fitness of the prey. Variation in the expression of defensive traits is seen among individuals within the same population, and in the same individual in response to changes in the environment (i.e., phenotypically plastic responses). It is the relative magnitude of the cost and benefit of the defensive trait that underlies the defensive trait expression and its consequences to the community. However, whereas the cost has received much attention in ecological research, the benefit is seldom examined. Even in a defensive trait as extensively studied as vigilance, there are few studies of the purported benefit of the behavior, namely that vigilance enhances survival. We examined whether prey vigilance increased survival and quantified that benefit in a natural system, with white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) experiencing unmanipulated levels of predation risk from Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi). Deer that spent more time vigilant (as measured by head position using camera trap data) had a higher probability of survival. Indeed, an individual deer that was vigilant 75% of the time was more than three times as likely to be killed by panthers over the course of a year than a deer that was vigilant 95% of the time. Our results therefore show that within‐population variation in the expression of a defensive trait has profound consequences for the benefit it confers. Our results provide empirical evidence supporting a long‐held but seldom‐tested hypothesis, that vigilance is a behavior that reduces the probability of predation and quantifies the benefit of this defensive trait. Our work furthers an understanding of the net effects of a trait on prey fitness and predator–prey interactions, within‐population variation in traits, and predation risk effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acoustic spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods appear ideally suited for estimating population trends of cryptic species that are difficult to monitor. Despite evidence suggesting acoustic SCR offers greater precision over estimates obtained through distance sampling or mark-recapture approaches, it has seldom been applied to avian taxa. Here we assess the utility of acoustic SCR for estimating population density of owls, a group of birds for which population estimates are generally lacking. We conducted passive acoustic surveys for Barred Owls (Strix varia) and Great Horned Owls (Bubo virginianus) over the spring breeding seasons of 2020–2021 in a protected park in Georgia, USA. We used a combination of acoustic discrimination techniques to identify individuals, including spectrogram cross-correlation, hierarchical clustering, and visual scanning. The resulting estimates of the density of Great Horned Owl individuals (0.28 ± 0.026 [SE] per km2) were consistent with population density estimates from previous studies in other parts of the species' range. However, our methods appeared unsuitable for distinguishing Barred Owl individuals, which prevented estimation of population density for this species. We provide recommendations to improve acoustic sampling and individual discrimination of owls and suggest that acoustic SCR offers important advantages over conventional methods for monitoring some cryptic birds. Los métodos de captura-recaptura espacial (CRE) acústica parecen ser ideales para estimar las tendencias poblacionales de especies crípticas que son de difícil seguimiento. A pesar de la evidencia que sugiere que la CRE acústica ofrece mayor precisión que las estimaciones obtenidas mediante muestreo de distancia o enfoques de marcado-recaptura, ésta rara vez se ha aplicado a taxones aviares. Evaluamos la utilidad de la CRE acústica para estimar la densidad poblacional de búhos, un grupo de aves para el cual generalmente faltan estimaciones poblacionales. Realizamos estudios acústicos pasivos para Strix varia y Bubo virginianus durante las temporadas de cría en las primaveras del 2020 y 2021 en un parque protegido de Georgia, EEUU. Utilizamos una combinación de técnicas de discriminación acústica para identificar individuos, incluyendo correlación cruzada de espectrogramas, agrupacion jerárquica y escaneo visual. Las estimaciones resultantes de la densidad de individuos de B. virginianus (0.28 ± 0.026 [EE] por km2) fueron consistentes con las estimaciones de densidad poblacional obtenidas en estudios realizados previamente en otras áreas del rango de distribución de la especie. Sin embargo, nuestros métodos parecieron inadecuados para distinguir individuos de S. varia, lo que impidió la estimación de su densidad poblacional. Ofrecemos recomendaciones para mejorar el muestreo acústico y la discriminación individual de búhos, y sugerimos que la CRE acústica ofrece importantes ventajas sobre los métodos convencionales utilizados para el seguimiento de algunas aves crípticas. [Traducción del equipo editorial] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodology that is designed for rapid exploratory analysis of the outputs from ensembles of climate models, especially when these outputs consist of maps. The approach formalizes and extends the technique of "intermodel empirical orthogonal function" analysis, combining multivariate analysis of variance techniques with singular value decompositions (SVDs) of structured components of the ensemble data matrix. The SVDs yield spatial patterns associated with these components, which we call ensemble principal patterns (EPPs). A unique hierarchical partitioning of variation is obtained for balanced ensembles in which all combinations of factors, such as GCM and RCM pairs in a regional ensemble, appear with equal frequency: suggestions are also proposed to handle unbalanced ensembles without imputing missing values or discarding runs. Applications include the selection of ensemble members to propagate uncertainty into subsequent analyses, and the diagnosis of modes of variation associated with specific model variants or parameter perturbations. The approach is illustrated using outputs from the EuroCORDEX regional ensemble over the United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]