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1. A Cross-Sectional Study to Assess Capacity of Health Facility Laboratories in Zone One of Afar Regional State, Ethiopia

Author: Chalachew Genet Akal and Tesfaye Andualem
Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, RC955-962
Abstract: Role of laboratory service in patient care is well recognized in developed compared to developing countries like Ethiopia where most medical decisions are based on clinical judgment. Laboratory based medical decisions save life and resources. Thus, health facilities (HFs) having capacitated laboratories provide better health care service. Thus, this study assessed capacity of laboratories found in all nine HFs in zone one of Afar region, Ethiopia. Cross-sectional study was conducted from January to May 2015. Data were collected using questioner from medical laboratory professionals (MLPs) and using cheek list from laboratory registration books. Collected data was analyzed using SPSS. Availability of laboratory related national guidelines and standard operating procedure varies among HFs studied. In 42 selected laboratory equipment and materials assessed, their availability shows variations among HFs from 13 (30.2%) to 32 (74.4%). Among different laboratory tests recommended to be performed at health center (HC) level by World Health Organization (WHO), six tests were not performed in all HC laboratories. Moreover, 11 (31.4%) MLPs received in-service training in the past one year. Internal quality control measures were done in 3 (33.3%) laboratories. However, all laboratories were involved in external quality assurance with varied schedules. Specimens after testing and specimen with prolonged transit time were discarded using standard rejection criteria in 8 (88.9%) and 3 (33.3) laboratories, respectively. Study showed that laboratories assessed have good capacities in involving external quality assurance and having proper laboratory test request format. But capacity of laboratories assessed is limited and unsatisfactory in number of laboratory tests performed at HC laboratories, in internal quality control measure implementation, and in getting up-to-date in-service training to staff. Thus, to enhance capacity of laboratories in HC, responsible bodies shall avail basic laboratory materials and equipment, make fair distribution of MLPs, provide up-to-date training, and implement internal quality control measures in laboratories.
Published: 2018
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2. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years

Author: Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Félix Carvalho, Luke D. Knibbs, Sonia Lewycka, Sonali Kochhar, Aaron Cohen, Luca Ronfani, Ebrahim M Yimer, Srinivas Murthy, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Josip Car, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Babak Moazen, Mostafa Qorbani, Javad Nazari, Nancy Fullman, Niranjan Kissoon, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Marissa B Reitsma, Benn Sartorius, Ashish Awasthi, Aman Yesuf Endries, Christopher Troeger, Evanson Z. Sambala, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Alessandra C. Goulart, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Ahmad Daryani, Fakher Rahim, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Yuming Guo, Sonia Saxena, Justin R. Ortiz, Monika Sawhney, Eyal Oren, Alaa Badawi, Tomislav Mestrovic, Sezer Kisa, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Ai Koyanagi, Long Hoang Nguyen, Alireza Rafiei, Aziz Rezapour, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Abdallah M. Samy, Catrin E. Moore, André Karch, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Chi Linh Hoang, Katie R Nielsen, Eleonora Dubljanin, Giuseppe Gorini, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Bach Xuan Tran, Christopher J L Murray, Khanh Bao Tran, Maarten J. Postma, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Bartosz Miazgowski, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Aziz Sheikh, Reginald Quansah, Kirsten E. Wiens, Mika Shigematsu, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Yasir Waheed, Robert Reiner, Smita Pakhale, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahesh P A, Ruth W Kimokoti, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Zakir Hussain, Naohiro Yonemoto, Noore Alam, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Lidia Morawska, Adane Teshome Kefale, Ali H. Mokdad, Rachel L Updike, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Veisani, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Jeffrey D. Stanaway, Mina Anjomshoa, Corey B. Bills, Puja C Rao, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Lorenzo Monasta, Zoubida Zaidi, Yousef Khader, Heather J. Zar, Ali Bijani, Tommi Vasankari, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Young-Ho Khang, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Joseph Frostad, Ghulam Mustafa, Jalal Arabloo, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Shanshan Li, David L. Smith, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Andrew T Olagunju, Suleman Atique, Abdullah T Khoja, Ibrahim A Khalil, William M. Gardner, Zikria Saleem, Addisu Melese, Stephen S Lim, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Hmwe H Kyu, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Aleksandra Barac, Spencer L. James, Salvatore Rubino, Lalit Dandona, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Kate Causey, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Simon I. Hay, Ravi Prakash Jha, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Son Hoang Nguyen, Belay Tessema, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alireza Ahmadi, Theo Vos, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Irfan Ullah, Molly H Biehl, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Tinuke O Olagunju, Florian Fischer, Olatunde Aremu, Brigette F. Blacker, Derrick A Bennett, Vahid Alipour, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Manisha Dubey, Tuomo J. Meretoja, G Anil Kumar, Varshil Mehta, Molly R Nixon, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Anselm Okoro, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shafiu Mohammed, Nuruzzaman Khan, Jost B. Jonas, Samah Awad, Miloje Savic, Soewarta Kosen, Quique Bassat, Amha Admasie, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chalachew Genet Akal, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Adnan Kisa, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Jonathan F. Mosser, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Birhanu Geta, Nobuyuki Horita, Gulfaraz Khan, Saeed Amini, Ziad A. Memish, Rakhi Dandona, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Samer Hamidi, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Helena Manguerra, Shirin Djalalinia, Degu Abate, Rakesh Lodha, Samuel B. Albertson, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Abdullah Al Mamun, Neeraj Bedi, Parvaiz A Koul, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Katie Welgan, Masood Ali Shaikh, Marek Majdan, Mihaela Hostiuc, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh brahim Ahmed, Public Health, GBD Lower Resp Infect, Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Collaborators, GBD 2017 Lower Respiratory Infections, Clinicum, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Staff Services, University of Helsinki, II kirurgian klinikka, and Department of Oncology
Subjects: Male, Psychological intervention, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Case fatality rate, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Respiratory Tract Infections, INFLUENZAE TYPE-B, education.field_of_study, NUTRITION TRANSITION, CHALLENGES, Trastornos respiratorios, Incidence (epidemiology), Mortality rate, Incidence, Enfermedades en niños, CHILDHOOD PNEUMONIA, Children younger than 5 years, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Child, Preschool, Child Mortality, Female, TERRITORIES, CONJUGATE VACCINE, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, 195 COUNTRIES, Infections, Article, CHINA, 03 medical and health sciences, Age Distribution, Nutrition transition, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Humans, Risk factor, education, Lower respiratory, Models, Statistical, business.industry, AIR-POLLUTION, Verbal autopsy, Enfermedades respiratorias, Socioeconomic Factors, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Human medicine, business, Demography
Abstract: Background Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. Methods We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. Findings In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286–873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65·4% decrease, 61·5–68·5) and in mortality rate (from 362·7 deaths [330·1–392·0] per 100 000 children to 118·9 deaths [109·8–128·3] per 100 000 children; 67·2% decrease, 63·5–70·1). LRI incidence declined globally (32·4% decrease, 27·2–37·5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11·4% decrease, 0·0–24·5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6·3% decrease, 6·1–6·3), and reductions in household air pollution (8·4%, 6·8–9·2). Interpretation Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2020
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3. Seroconfirmed Typhoid Fever and Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices among Febrile Patients Attending at Injibara General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Author: Solomon Getachew, Desalegn Chekol, Asamrew Wube, Kidist Ababu, Wondemagegn Mulu, Fenkil Tesfaye, and Chalachew Genet Akal
Subjects: Adult, Male, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Multivariate analysis, Article Subject, Adolescent, 030231 tropical medicine, Widal test, Salmonella typhi, Hospitals, General, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Typhoid fever, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Seroepidemiologic Studies, Environmental health, medicine, Global health, Prevalence, Seroprevalence, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Risk factor, Typhoid Fever, General Immunology and Microbiology, medicine.diagnostic_test, business.industry, General Medicine, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Multivariate Analysis, Medicine, Health education, Female, Ethiopia, business, Research Article
Abstract: Introduction. Typhoid fever (TF) is a febrile global health problem caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) with relatively high prevalence in low- and middle-income countries including Ethiopia. Identifying local prevalence and gaps in knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) towards TF is recommended by the World Health Organization to implement preventive measures. Therefore, this study determined the prevalence of S. Typhi and KAP of febrile patients towards TF in Injibara General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Methods. Hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted from January to March 2020. A total of 237 patients were included conveniently. Data on KAP and demographic variables were collected using a structured questionnaire by face-to-face interview. After the interview, 5 ml venous blood was collected and processed using the Widal test following the manufacturer’s instruction. Mean scores and percentages were used to determine the level of KAP. Multivariable analysis was done to correlate KAPs with TF. P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results. The overall prevalence of S. Typhi was 25.7%. The highest seroprevalence was observed among the age group of 30-34 years (33.3%) and patients with no education. The majority of participants know the major ways of TF transmission (59.1-90.7%) and prevention (81.4%) methods. However, the misconception on the route of TF transmission was observed in 13.5-36.7% of participants. About 65.4% and 67.5% of study participants were considered knowledgeable and had good preventive practice towards TF, respectively. Being a student ( AOR = 0.227 , CI = 0.053 − 0.965 ) and considering mosquito bite as transmission routes ( AOR = 2.618 , CI = 1.097 − 6.248 ) were significantly associated with TF. Conclusion. High S. Typhi prevalence was observed in the study area. Moreover, the misconception on the transmission of typhoid fever and educational level was a risk factor for TF. Thus, health facilities should incorporate topics on typhoid fever as part of their health education system within health facilities and in the community.
Published: 2021

4. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Manisha Dubey, Fatemeh Rajati, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Amir Khater, Reza Shirkoohi, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, David C. Schwebel, Milena Ilic, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Ronny Westerman, Taye Abuhay Zewale, Ravi Mehrotra, Sezer Kisa, Junaid Khan, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Marcel Ausloos, Getnet Gedefaw, Hamed Zandian, Edward J Mills, Aparna Lal, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal, Yousef Veisani, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Christopher Troeger, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Oliver J. Brady, David Laith Rawaf, Tamer H. Farag, Simin Mouodi, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Samad Azari, Getinet Ayano, Faris Lami, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Maryam Adabi, Alaa Badawi, Saravanan Muthupandian, Amir Hasanzadeh, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Bineyam Taye, Nader Jafari Balalami, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Paul H. Lee, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Kewal Krishan, Muhammad Ali, Ehsan Sadeghi, Richard C. Franklin, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Lal B. Rawal, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Behnam Heidari, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Eric L. Ding, Noushin Mohammadifard, Nihal Thomas, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Sanghamitra Pati, Addisu Melese, Niranjan Kissoon, Farzad Manafi, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Meysam Behzadifar, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Frank B. Osei, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Yahya Salimi, Pranab Chatterjee, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Benjamin K. Mayala, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Zahid A Butt, Olufemi Ajumobi, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Shafiu Mohammed, Charles Shey Shey Wiysonge, Félix Carvalho, Masresha Tessema Anegago, Yun Jin Kim, Ai-Min Wu, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Ana-Laura Manda, Aziz Eftekhari, Rakhi Dandona, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Nicole Davis Weaver, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Marwa Rashad Salem, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Dongyu Zhang, Saeed Safari, Vivekanand Jha, Keivan Ahmadi, Turki Alanzi, Amir Jalali, Hamidreza Haririan, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Surendra Karki, Kirsten E. Wiens, Boikhutso Tlou, Soraya Siabani, Muluken Azage Yenesew, Asnakew Achaw Ayele, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Susanna Dunachie, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Tissa Wijeratne, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, André Karch, Ebrahim Babaee, Akram Pourshams, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Bal Govind Chauhan, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Vera Marisa Costa, Mehdi Yaseri, Tahereh Pashaei, Benn Sartorius, Helen Derara Diro, Anelisa Jaca, Mostafa Hosseini, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Franz Castro, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chalachew Genet Akal, Natalie Maria Cormier, Ghulam Mustafa, Sonia Lewycka, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, David L. Smith, Ibrahim A Khalil, Genet Melak Alamene, George C Patton, Andem Effiong, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Collins Chansa, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Van C. Lansingh, Chabila C Mapoma, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Aubrey J. Levine, Miliva Mozaffor, Till Bärnighausen, Ali Rostami, André Faro, Rushdia Ahmed, Colm McAlinden, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Neeraj Bedi, Irfan Ullah, Winfried März, Rajeev Gupta, Masood Ali Shaikh, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Abbas Mosapour, Javad Nazari, Obinna Onwujekwe, Narinder Pal Singh, Dabere Nigatu, Tanuj Kanchan, Jagdish Khubchandani, Aklilu Endalamfaw, Hajer Elkout, Michelle L. Bell, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Evanson Z. Sambala, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nefsu Awoke, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Muki Shey, Christiane Dolecek, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Syed Ather Hussain, Birhan Tamene Alemnew, Arash Etemadi, Anwar E. Ahmed, Vinay Nangia, Sachin R Atre, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Robert C. Reiner, Rajat Das Gupta, Aniruddha Deshpande, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Chi Linh Hoang, Bahram Armoon, Manfred Accrombessi, Christopher J L Murray, Ebrahim M Yimer, Rashmi Gupta, Ahmed Omar Bali, Dadi Marami, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Getnet Mengistu, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Fereshteh Ansari, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, Ali S. Akanda, Satar Rezaei, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Irina Filip, Mohammad Fareed, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Yared A Asmare Aynalem, Gelin Xu, Zubair Kabir, Khalid A Altirkawi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Yibeltal Alemu Bekele, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Quique Bassat, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Moslem Soofi, Nuruzzaman Khan, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Alireza Esteghamati, Paramjit Gill, Nathaniel J Henry, Meghnath Dhimal, Hosein Shabaninejad, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Eugenio Traini, Mohammad Zamani, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Florian Fischer, Rafael Moreira Claro, Pushpendra Kumar, Shai Linn, Lucas Earl, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Getenet Dessie, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, John S. Ji, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Saeed Amini, Ziad A. Memish, Aisha Elsharkawy, Ken Lee Chin, Mustafa Z. Younis, Daniel Diaz, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Tomohide Yamada, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Platon D. Lopukhov, Alireza Rafiei, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Hossein Poustchi, Ayele Geleto Bali, Francesco Saverio Violante, Leonardo Roever, Giovanni Damiani, Maha El Tantawi, Nuworza Kugbey, Hadi Pourjafar, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Dinh-Toi Chu, Farkhonde Salehi, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Farnam Mohebi, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Senbagam Duraisamy, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Eleonora Dubljanin, Takeshi Fukumoto, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Fakher Rahim, Jasvinder A. Singh, Jai K Das, Savita Lasrado, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Santosh Varughese, Adnan Kisa, Laurie B. Marczak, Amira Shaheen, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Nader Jahanmehr, Yuming Guo, Arash Ziapour, Alex Yeshaneh, Ninuk Hariyani, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Joel M. Francis, Asmamaw Demis, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Praveen Hoogar, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Yunquan Zhang, Yousef Mohammad, Iman El Sayed, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Marzieh Nojomi, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Sameh Magdeldin, Anton Sokhan, Nauman Khalid, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Ben Lacey, Luca Ronfani, James Albright, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Khanh Bao Tran, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Parvaneh Mirabi, Boris Bikbov, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Assefa Desalew, Yasir Waheed, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Brian J. Hall, James A Platts-Mills, Gbenga A. Kayode, Jan-Walter De Neve, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Navid Manafi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Abdullah Al Mamun, Ali Bijani, Hedley Quintana, Shanshan Li, Kebreab Paulos, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, Oladimeji Adebayo, David Teye Doku, Brijesh Sathian, Bakhtiar Piroozi, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Netsanet Fentahun, Shymaa Enany, Ayman Grada, Salvatore Rubino, Kenji Shibuya, Norberto Perico, Sergio I. Prada, Andrea Farioli, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Mohsen Afarideh, Maciej Banach, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Rakesh Lodha, David M. Pigott, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Hadi Hassankhani, Daniel Adane Endalew, Siamak Sabour, Yoshan Moodley, Preeti Dhillon, Dilaram Acharya, Anas M. Saad, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Mohammad Rabiee, Ajay Patle, Rahman Shiri, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Davide Guido, Chuanhua Yu, Abdallah M. Samy, Ali Talha Khalil, Ashish Awasthi, Pascual R. Valdez, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Nejimu Biza Zepro, Taweewat Wiangkham, Anthony Masaka, Afsaneh Arzani, Ayesha Humayun, Michael Tamene Haile, Huyen Phuc Do, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Mehdi Ahmadi, Farah Daoud, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Suleman Atique, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Indang Trihandini, Mario Poljak, Bartosz Miazgowski, Huda Basaleem, Rafael Alves Guimares, Mina Anjomshoa, Peng Jia, Yafeng Wang, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Itamar S. Santos, Alireza Khatony, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Samath D Dharmaratne, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Konrad Pesudovs, Tina Beyranvand, Liliana Preotescu, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Enrico Rubagotti, Amira Hamed Darwish, Mahdi Safdarian, Ali Yadollahpour, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Moses K. Muriithi, Azmeraw T. Amare, Si Si, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Khaled Khatab, Masoud Behzadifar, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, G Anil Kumar, Margaret Kosek, Mona M. Khater, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ghobad Moradi, Srinivas Goli, Ruth W Kimokoti, Jalal Arabloo, Kimberly B. Johnson, Andrew T Olagunju, Mowafa Househ, In-Hwan Oh, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Jae Il Shin, Ahmed Abdelalim, Catherine A. Welgan, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Yuan-Pang Wang, Rosario Cárdenas, Mohammad Khazaei, Sebastian Vollmer, Xiu-Ju Zhao, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Degu Abate, Ali S. Shalash, Davide Rasella, Melese Abate Reta, Hedayat Abbastabar, Manu Raj Mathur, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Joseph Frostad, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Brigette F. Blacker, Carlo La Vecchia, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Foad Abd-Allah, Elias Merdassa Roro, Agus Sudaryanto, Fariba Ghassemi, Behzad Karami Matin, Mohsen Naghavi, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Maheswar Satpathy, Mahesh P A, Carlos Miguel Rios González, Pallab K. Maulik, Amir Kasaeian, Ali H. Mokdad, Alemayehu Toma Mena, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Ali Kabir, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Aberash Abay Tassew, Kala M. Mehta, Ionut Negoi, Hosni Salem, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Rufus A. Adedoyin, Saleem M Rana, Engida Yisma, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Hossein Farzam, Krishna K. Aryal, Lalit Dandona, Masoud Moradi, Juan Sanabria, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Shirin Djalalinia, Suraj Bhattarai, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Claudiu Herteliu, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Mohsen Bayati, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Gulfaraz Khan, Mostafa Leili, Nasir Salam, Ehsan Khodamoradi, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Vahid Alipour, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Rajesh Sagar, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Manasi Kumar, Mehdi Sharif, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Navid Rabiee, Gvs Murthy, Hamed Kalani, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Claudio Alberto Davila, Oluchi Okpala, Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli, Mathew M. Baumann, Bereket Duko Adema, Lorenzo Monasta, Paul S. F. Yip, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Dhirendra N Sinha, Farid Najafi, Kebede Deribe, Paula Moraga, Mehedi Hasan, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Vishnu Renjith, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Nuno Taveira, Masoud Foroutan, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Kamarul Imran Musa, Getaneh Alemu Abebe, Farshad Pourmalek, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Derrick A Bennett, Ahmad Daryani, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Apurba Shil, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Alexandre C. Pereira, Mehdi Naderi, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Rovshan Khalilov, Ai Koyanagi, Salman Khazaei, Jennifer Rickard, Ali Almasi, Sandra B. Munro, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, Local Burden Dis Diarrhoea, Department of Earth Observation Science, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, GeoHealth, Reiner, Robert C, Wiens, Kirsten E, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Baumann, Mathew M, Adema, Bereket Duko, Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn, Yisma, Engida, Hay, Simon I, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators, Tampere University, Health Sciences, University of Helsinki, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborator, and Violante FS
Subjects: Low income countries, medicine.medical_treatment, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Global Health, THERAPY, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, Prevalence, Global health, Medicine, WATER, 030212 general & internal medicine, Children, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Incidence, Mortality rate, Incidence (epidemiology), 1. No poverty, General Medicine, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, Diarrhoea, 3. Good health, Child, Preschool, Middle income countries, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, TERRITORIES, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Infants, Diarrhea, AFRICA, medicine.medical_specialty, Childhood deaths, RJ, sanitation, Developing country, Childhood diarrhoeal morbidity, ITC-HYBRID, 03 medical and health sciences, Medicine, General & Internal, General & Internal Medicine, Environmental health, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Life Science, Humans, Healthcare Disparities, Oral rehydration therapy, Risk factor, hand washing, Developing Countries, Disease burden, Global Nutrition, Wereldvoeding, Science & Technology, SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALITY, business.industry, CHOLERA, Public health, Bayes Theorem, diarrheal disease, Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, NA, Human medicine, Diarrea, business
Abstract: Background: Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods: We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings: The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation: By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1132415). S Aljunid reports additional funding from the International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia and Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project outside of the study. A Awasthi is supported by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi, through the INSPIRE Faculty Program outside of the study. A Badawi reports additional funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada outside of the study. A Barac reports additional funding from the Project of Ministry of Education, Science and Technology of the Republic of Serbia (no III45005) outside of the study. T Bärnighausen reports additional funding by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research outside of the study. F Carvalho and E Fernandez report additional funding from the Portuguese national funds (UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019) outside of the study. V M Costa reports additional funding from Fundação da Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) for her grant (SFRH/BPD/110001/2015), which was funded by national funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, IP, under the Norma Transitória – DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006 outside of the study. J De Neve reports additional funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation outside of the study. K Deribe reports additional funding from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 201900) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship outside of the study. D Endalew and M Moradi report additional funding from Wolkite University. M Ausloos, C Herteliu, and A Pana report additional funding from the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084) outside of the study. C Herteliu reports additional funding from the European Fund for Regional Development through Operational Program for Competitiveness (Project ID P_40_382) and the European Fund for Regional Development, through InterReg Romania-Hungary (project code EMS ROHU 217) outside of the study. P Hoogar reports additional funding from the Centre for Holistic Development and Research (CHDR), Kalaghatagi and The Department of Studies in Anthropology, Karnatak University, D S Islam reports additional funding from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and the Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University outside of the study. A Khatony reports additional funding from the Clinical Research Development Center of Imam Reza Hospital in Kermanshah outside of the study. J Khubchandani reports additional funding from Merck Research Laboratories outside of the study. K Krishan reports additional funding from the UGC Center of Advanced Study (CAS II) awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India outside of the study. M Kumar reports additional funding from the Fogarty Foundation/NIH through a K43 award (TW010716-01A1) outside of the study. B Lacey reports additional funding from the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence (Oxford, UK) outside of the study. A M Samy reports additional funding from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program (EFMP) outside of the study. S Seyedmousavi reports additional funding from the Intramural Program of National Institute of Health Clinical Center, Bethesda, MD, USA outside of the study. M Shey reports additional funding from the Wellcome Trust Kenji Shibuya reports additional funding from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and Japan's Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology outside of the study. M Sobhiyeh reports additional funding from the Clinical Research Development Center of Imam Reza Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences outside of the study. J Soriano reports additional funding from Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain outside of the study. N Taveira reports additional funding from the LIFE study (RIA2016MC-1615) of the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP) program supported by the European Union outside of the study. B Unnikrishnan reports additional funding from the Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India outside of the study. T Wijeratne reports additional funding from the Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Rajarata, Saliyapura, Sri Lanka outside of the study. C S Wiysonge reports additional funding from the South African Medical Research Council and the National Research Foundation of South Africa outside of the study.
Published: 2020

5. Status of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) Services Utilization and Factors Affecting PMTCT Service Uptake by Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Care Clinic in Selected Health Facilities of Afar Regional State, Ethiopia

Author: Dessie Tegegne Afework and Chalachew Genet Akal
Subjects: Adult, Waiting time, Article Subject, Adolescent, Cross-sectional study, Health Personnel, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Pmtct service, medicine.disease_cause, Ambulatory Care Facilities, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, immune system diseases, Environmental health, Health care, Humans, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, reproductive and urinary physiology, 030504 nursing, business.industry, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, virus diseases, Prevention of mother to child transmission, Prenatal Care, lcsh:RA1-1270, bacterial infections and mycoses, Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical, female genital diseases and pregnancy complications, Cross-Sectional Studies, Physical access, Female, Residence, Ethiopia, Pregnant Women, 0305 other medical science, business, Facilities and Services Utilization, Research Article
Abstract: Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is the predominant way for children to acquire human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection worldwide including Ethiopia. Thus, objective of this study was to determine the status of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services utilization and factors affecting PMTCT utilization in health facilities of Afar region, Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted from December 2014 to April 2015 taking 347 pregnant women and 22 health care providers. Data were collected using a questioner prepared separately for pregnant women and health care providers involved in PMTCT service delivery. Data were analyzed using SPSS considering P value
Published: 2018
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6. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Yuming Guo, Soewarta Kosen, Irfan Ullah, Khanh Bao Tran, Joan B. Soriano, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Teklay G E Teklu, Smita Pakhale, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Christopher Troeger, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Helena Manguerra, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chalachew Genet Akal, Rakhi Dandona, Alaa Badawi, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Sonali Kochhar, Javad Nazari, Evanson Z. Sambala, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, G Anil Kumar, Niranjan Kissoon, Yousef Veisani, Ai Koyanagi, Lalit Dandona, Molly R Nixon, David L. Smith, Samah Awad, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Rachel L Updike, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Giuseppe Gorini, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Molly H Biehl, Zoubida Zaidi, Ahmad Daryani, Bach Xuan Tran, André Karch, Mostafa Qorbani, Zikria Saleem, Addisu Melese, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Adane Teshome Kefale, Félix Carvalho, Stephen S Lim, Birhanu Geta, Aziz Sheikh, Reginald Quansah, Andrew T Olagunju, Jalal Arabloo, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Amir Kasaeian, Maarten J. Postma, Abdullah T Khoja, Ravi Prakash Jha, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Yousef Khader, Heather J. Zar, Ali Bijani, Ibrahim A Khalil, William M. Gardner, Marcia R. Weaver, Ebrahim M Yimer, Srinivas Murthy, Quique Bassat, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Kirsten E. Wiens, Saeed Amini, Ziad A. Memish, Samer Hamidi, Shanshan Li, Belay Tessema, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Tinuke O Olagunju, Alessandra C. Goulart, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Mahesh P A, Olatunde Aremu, Spencer L. James, Derrick A Bennett, Sezer Kisa, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Alireza Ahmadi, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Mika Shigematsu, Naohiro Yonemoto, Shirin Djalalinia, Rakesh Lodha, Anselm Okoro, Adnan Kisa, Ali H. Mokdad, Aman Yesuf Endries, Josip Car, Fakher Rahim, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Babak Moazen, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Lorenzo Monasta, Abdullah Al Mamun, Young-Ho Khang, Yasir Waheed, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Zakir Hussain, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Abdallah M. Samy, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Hmwe H Kyu, Afshin Zarghi, Monika Sawhney, Ghulam Mustafa, Samuel B. Albertson, Tomislav Mestrovic, Long Hoang Nguyen, Marek Majdan, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Mihaela Hostiuc, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Chi Linh Hoang, Christopher J L Murray, Nahla Anber, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Ashish Awasthi, Robert Reiner, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Shafiu Mohammed, Saeed Safari, Catrin E. Moore, Mina Anjomshoa, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Nancy Fullman, Benn Sartorius, Nuruzzaman Khan, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Jost B. Jonas, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Jeffrey D. Stanaway, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Tommi Vasankari, Florian Fischer, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Brigette F. Blacker, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Puja C Rao, Neeraj Bedi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Bartosz Miazgowski, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh brahim Ahmed, Vahid Alipour, Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Luca Ronfani, Suleman Atique, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Alireza Rafiei, Aziz Rezapour, Ruth W Kimokoti, Noore Alam, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Katherine Rosettie, Jonathan F. Mosser, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Degu Abate, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Staff Services, University of Helsinki, Department of Oncology, Public Health, Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Collaborators, GBD 2017 Diarrhoeal Disease, and GBD 2017 Diarrhoeal Dis
Subjects: Male, Diarrhea, AFRICA, 030231 tropical medicine, Developing country, Global Health, Risk Assessment, Global Burden of Disease, 03 medical and health sciences, MORBIDITY, Life Expectancy, 0302 clinical medicine, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, SANITATION, NUTRITIONAL INTERVENTIONS, Environmental health, Prevalence, Global health, Humans, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Risk factor, Child, Developing Countries, Wasting, Children, Models, Statistical, business.industry, Mortality rate, MORTALITY, 1. No poverty, Infant, Verbal autopsy, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Socioeconomic Factors, WATER-QUALITY, Child, Preschool, Relative risk, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Child Mortality, GROWTH, Female, Human medicine, medicine.symptom, business, Risk assessment, Diarrea, Infants
Abstract: Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162–593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1–87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1–74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2–15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6–10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8–8·4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors—particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution—appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2020
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7. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Author: Mohsen Bayati, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Nasir Salam, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Davide Rasella, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Ghulam Mustafa, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Fereshteh Ansari, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Leonardo Roever, Oghenowede Eyawo, Koustuv Dalal, Ana-Laura Manda, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Javad Yoosefi Lebni, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Aziz Eftekhari, Oleguer Plana-Ripoll, Jon Wakefield, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Edris Hasanpoor, Brijesh Sathian, Kala M. Mehta, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Saeed Amini, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Abbas Yadegar, João Pedro Silva, Desmond Kuupiel, Anvar Asadi, Hamid Sharifi, Ebrahim Babaee, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Ian Davis, Mostafa Qorbani, Fatemeh Rajati, Samer Hamidi, Parvaiz A Koul, Foad Abd-Allah, Mojisola Oluwasanu, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Elias Merdassa Roro, Mihaela Hostiuc, Robert S. Bernstein, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Irina Filip, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Amir Khater, Lidia Morawska, Sangram Kishor Patel, Robert C. Reiner, Joshua O. Akinyemi, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Reza Malekzadeh, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Irfan Ullah, Gabrielle B. Britton, Gelin Xu, Nathaniel J Henry, Thomas R. Hird, Ronny Westerman, Vera Marisa Costa, Reza Assadi, Tiffany K. Gill, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Meysam Olfatifar, Sezer Kisa, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Walter Mendoza, Mohammad Zamani, Nader Jafari Balalami, Mahdi Safdarian, Manfred S. Green, Mahesh P A, Nahid Neamati, Pallab K. Maulik, Ali H. Mokdad, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Ahmad Daryani, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Mostafa Hosseini, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Nick Golding, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Shirin Nosratnejad, Haidong Wang, Shadi Rahimzadeh, Pushpendra Kumar, Mehdi Noroozi, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Brent Bell, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Yousef Veisani, Katie R Nielsen, Ionut Negoi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Amir Ashraf-Ganjouei, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Joseph L Ward, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Ettore Beghi, Azeem Majeed, Ivy Shiue, Delia Hendrie, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Moslem Soofi, Ghobad Moradi, Mahsa Ghajarzadeh, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Milad Hasankhani, Mohamed I Hegazy, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Vahid Alipour, Ruth W Kimokoti, Afshin Maleki, Nafiseh Baheiraei, Noore Alam, Jalal Arabloo, Mariam Molokhia, Kimberly B. Johnson, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, Kerem Shuval, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Paul H. Lee, Reza Ghadimi, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Ehsan Sadeghi, Brandon V. Pickering, Animika Pandey, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Felix Greaves, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Joel M. Francis, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Yun Jin Kim, Agus Sudaryanto, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Hadi Pourjafar, Tomohide Yamada, Alireza Rafiei, Rosario Cárdenas, Mohammad Khazaei, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Rahman Shiri, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Michael Collison, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Yahya Salimi, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Soewarta Kosen, Al Artaman, Surendra Karki, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Lorenzo Monasta, Amit Arora, Christopher S Yilgwan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Adnan Kisa, Gholamreza Roshandel, Vahid Rashedi, Daniel Diaz, Amir Vahedian-Azimi, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Nuworza Kugbey, Zohreh Arefi, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Robert G. Weintraub, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Alexandre C. Pereira, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Ai Koyanagi, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Salman Khazaei, Olalekan A. Uthman, Mohamed Hsairi, Nuno Taveira, Masoud Foroutan, Jayendra Sharma, Hanna Demelash Desyibelew, Max Roser, Keivan Ahmadi, Yousef Khader, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Ali Bijani, Shanshan Li, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Florian Fischer, Aziz Sheikh, Eun-Kee Park, Stefan Listl, Smita Pakhale, Brian J. Hall, Alireza Zangeneh, Ravi Mehrotra, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Mahdi Afshari, Son Hoang Nguyen, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Rupak Desai, Aziz Rezapour, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Gillian I. Hollerich, Reza Saeedi, Iman El Sayed, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Ben Lacey, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Roya Ebrahimi, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Tommi Vasankari, Siamak Sabour, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Job F M van Boven, Nataliya Foigt, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Neeraj Bedi, Hamed Mirjalali, Payman Salamati, P N Sylaja, Ted R. Miller, George J. Milne, Alaa Badawi, Muhammad Usman, Amir Hasanzadeh, Michelle L. Bell, Giang Thu Vu, Masoud Behzadifar, Manasi Kumar, Mona M. Khater, Josip Car, Nafis Sadat, Mostafa Leili, Mehdi Sharif, Hadi Hassankhani, Mowafa Househ, Joshua A. Salomon, Morteza Mansourian, G Anil Kumar, João C. Fernandes, Tufa Kolola, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Masood Ali Shaikh, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Andrew T Olagunju, Bahram Armoon, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Samantha Perkins, Mohsen Mazidi, Stefan Lorkowski, Sagnik Dey, Edward J Mills, Ali Kabir, Maryam Khazaei-Pool, Mohammad Rabiee, Arianna Maever L. Amit, John S. Ji, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Martin McKee, Hadi Parsian, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Paramjit Gill, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Karen M. Tabb, Annie J. Browne, Abdallah M. Samy, Elham Ehsani-Chimeh, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Destallem Gebremedhin Gebre, Fakher Rahim, Sheetal D. 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C.J.L., and Hay S.I.
Subjects: Survival, RJ101, Mortalidad Infantil, HB, UNDER-5 MORTALITY, Global Health, Pediatrics, 0302 clinical medicine, 3123 Gynaecology and paediatrics, Child death, Infant Mortality, Epidemiology, Global health, Middle income country, Nacimiento vivo, 030212 general & internal medicine, 10. No inequality, Child, POPULATION, Developing world, education.field_of_study, Public health, Multidisciplinary, Geography, Mortality rate, wa_900, 1. No poverty, SUCCESS, Pediatrik, A900 Others in Medicine and Dentistry, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 3. Good health, Child Mortality, Death children, VACCINATION, HEALTH, ws_100, INTERVENTIONS, AFRICA, medicine.medical_specialty, United Nations, General Science & Technology, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, Developing country, Article, Healthcare improvement science Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 18], ITC-HYBRID, 03 medical and health sciences, All institutes and research themes of the Radboud University Medical Center, Social Justice, Recién nacido, Neonatal deaths, medicine, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Organizational Objectives, Humans, education, Developing Countries, business.industry, Infant, Newborn, Infant, CIVIL REGISTRATION, Paediatrics, Child survival, Newborn, PREVENTION, Infant mortality, wa_320, ws_200, Child mortality, Socioeconomic Factors, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, Human medicine, Paediatrics, Public health, Developing world, business, Demography
Abstract: Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations., A high-resolution, global atlas of mortality of children under five years of age between 2000 and 2017 highlights subnational geographical inequalities in the distribution, rates and absolute counts of child deaths by age.
Published: 2019
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8. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

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Dean Hosgood, Rakhi Dandona, Taye Abuhay Zewale, Sezer Kisa, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Hedayat Abbastabar, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Smita Pakhale, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Yaschilal Muche Belayneh, Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Irfan Ullah, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Akram Pourshams, Alberto L. García-Basteiro, Helen Bitew, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Mehdi Sayyah, Kevin S Ikuta, Moses K. Muriithi, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Cesar Reis, Themba G. 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Steuben, Lalit Dandona, Keivan Ahmadi, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Belete Kassa, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Arash Ziapour, Raquel Crider, Alaa Badawi, Tahvi Frank, Amir Hasanzadeh, Marcel Yotebieng, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Emmanuel Peprah, Mekonnen Sisay, Ghulam Mustafa, Oghenowede Eyawo, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Vahid Alipour, Reza Malekzadeh, Bereket Duko Adema, Direslgne Misker Abyu, Tinuke O Olagunju, Olatunde Aremu, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Linh Phuong Doan, Mihiretu Kebede, Aman Yesuf Endries, Amira Shaheen, Belete Biadgo, Ali Rostami, Marwa Rashad Salem, Getnet Gedefaw, Stein Emil Vollset, Gurudatta Naik, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Melese Abate Reta, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Vishnu Renjith, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Kebede Deribe, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Nuno Taveira, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Marilita M Moschos, Masoud Foroutan, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Farid Najafi, Tukur Dahiru, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Varshil Mehta, Molly R Nixon, Nahla Anber, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Mohammad Rabiee, Nauman Khalid, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Anselm Okoro, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Shirin Djalalinia, Amanda E. Smith, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Yared Belete Belay, Saeed Amini, Ziad A. Memish, Stephanie M. Topp, Eduarda Fernandes, Mohammed Suleiman Obsa, Junaid Khan, Andem Effiong, Jane Jean-Hee Lee, Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga, Abdallah M. Samy, Anton Sokhan, Rajesh Sagar, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Birhan Alemnew, Asmamaw Demis, Samer Hamidi, Getnet Mengistu, Michael Tamene Haile, Gbenga A. Kayode, Huyen Phuc Do, Yoshan Moodley, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Moslem Mohammadi, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Samad Azari, Gulfaraz Khan, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Emmanuel Ankrah Odame, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Louisa Degenhardt, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Ai Koyanagi, Ebrahim M Yimer, Maryam Adabi, Javad Nazari, Saravanan Muthupandian, Evanson Z. Sambala, Salman Khazaei, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Hunduma Amensisa Bojia, Anwar Rafay, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Ehsan Ahmadpour, José Neves, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Shafiu Mohammed, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Navid Rabiee, Dinh-Toi Chu, Zoubida Zaidi, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Habtamu Temesgen, Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore, Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Spencer L. James, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Ziad El-Khatib, Zohreh Anbari, Aisha Elsharkawy, Nancy Fullman, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chalachew Genet Akal, Chabila C Mapoma, Amir H. Pakpour, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Jalal Arabloo, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Batool Fatima, Tissa Wijeratne, Addisu Gize Yeshanew, Benn Sartorius, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Abdullah T Khoja, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Takeshi Fukumoto, Maryam Moossavi, Bahram Mohajer, Ravi Prakash Jha, Oladimeji Adebayo, Farshad Farzadfar, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Solomon Sisay, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Bach Xuan Tran, Eleonora Dubljanin, Farnam Mohebi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Masoud Behzadifar, Yousef Mohammad, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, G Anil Kumar, Jan-Walter De Neve, Afshin Zarghi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Monika Sawhney, Eyal Oren, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Saeed Safari, Salvatore Rubino, Kenji Shibuya, Daniel Diaz, Salman Rawaf, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Ted R. Miller, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Sonali Kochhar, Azeem Majeed, Till Bärnighausen, Zubair Kabir, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Adane Teshome Kefale, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Yousef Khader, Ali Bijani, Kebreab Paulos, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Alireza Ahmadi, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Padukudru Anand Mahesh, Florian Fischer, Mulugeta Melku, Fakher Rahim, Manisha Dubey, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Yasir Waheed, Mehdi Noroozi, Austin Carter, Chuanhua Yu, Ronny Westerman, Andualem Henok, Yousef Veisani, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Mina Anjomshoa, Andrew T Olagunju, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Belayneh K Gelaw, Jost B. Jonas, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Adugnaw Berhane, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Daniel Asmelash, Tomislav Mestrovic, Addisu Melese, Stephen S Lim, Yahya Salimi, Chi Linh Hoang, Christopher J L Murray, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Bruno F. Sunguya, Herbert C. Duber, Senad Handanagic, Ashish Awasthi, Anthony Masaka, Megha Arora, Sergey Soshnikov, Sangram Kishor Patel, Kwaku Oppong Asante, Haidong Wang, Rajendra Kadel, Bryan L. Sykes, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Deepa Jahagirdar, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Samantha Leigh Larson, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Sergey K Vladimirov, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Mohsen Naghavi, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Walter Mendoza, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Khanh Bao Tran, Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn, Carlos Miguel Rios González, Ahmad Daryani, Ali H. Mokdad, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Alemayehu Toma Mena, Navid Manafi, Andre Pascal Kengne, Victor Adekanmbi, Netsanet Fentahun, Olalekan A. Uthman, Desmond Kuupiel, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Zahid A Butt, Mohamed Hsairi, Bulat Idrisov, Ranjani Somayaji, Dan J. Stein, Molly H Biehl, Samuel B. Albertson, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Parvaiz A Koul, Elias Merdassa Roro, Marek Majdan, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Emilie R Maddison, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Young-Ho Khang, Solomon Olum, Hmwe H Kyu, Amir Radfar, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Elham Ahmadian, Graduate School, AII - Infectious diseases, APH - Global Health, APH - Methodology, GBD 2017 HIV Collaborators, Clinicum, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Staff Services, University of Helsinki, Department of Oncology, Adema, Bereket Duko, GBD 2017 HIV collaborators, and Public Health
Subjects: 0301 basic medicine, A300 Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology, CITIES, HIV Infections, Mortalities, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Seroepidemiologic Studies, Cause of Death, Prevalences, Prevalence, Global health, LIFE EXPECTANCY, 030212 general & internal medicine, 10. No inequality, education.field_of_study, CHALLENGES, Incidence, Incidence (epidemiology), Incidences, 1. No poverty, MEN, 3. Good health, AIDS, Infectious Diseases, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, GBD 2017 HIV collaborators, medicine.medical_specialty, Forecasts, Immunology, Population, Cause of Death/trends, UNITED-STATES, Context (language use), History, 21st Century, 03 medical and health sciences, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), Virology, Environmental health, medicine, Humans, education, Global Burden of Disease/trends, Estimation, Science & Technology, SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALITY, business.industry, DISABILITY, Public health, HIV, coverage of antiretroviral therapy, History, 20th Century, medicine.disease, mortality, R1, PREVENTION, TRENDS, 030112 virology, HIV Infections/mortality, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Life expectancy, Human medicine, business, Forecasting
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.METHODS: We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.FINDINGS: Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.INTERPRETATION: Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.
Published: 2019
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Author: Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Krishna K. Aryal, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Ahmad Daryani, Claudio Alberto Davila, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, David L. Smith, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Robert C. Reiner, Bineyam Taye, Dadi Marami, Ghulam Mustafa, Manasi Kumar, Mostafa Leili, Mehdi Sharif, Mohsen Naghavi, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Oluchi Okpala, Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli, Nihal Thomas, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ebrahim Babaee, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Miliva Mozaffor, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Meysam Behzadifar, Carlos Miguel Rios González, Pallab K. Maulik, Ali H. Mokdad, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Florian Fischer, Lalit Dandona, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Alemayehu Toma Mena, Jennifer Rickard, Benjamin K. Mayala, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Moslem Soofi, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Boris Bikbov, Bereket Duko Adema, Jagdish Khubchandani, Sachin R Atre, Rafael Moreira Claro, Sandra B. Munro, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Soraya Siabani, Muluken Azage Yenesew, Birhan Tamene Alemnew, Anwar E. Ahmed, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Masresha Tessema Anegago, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Vivekanand Jha, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Hadi Pourjafar, Junaid Khan, Farnam Mohebi, Marcel Ausloos, Manisha Dubey, Quynh Anh P. Nguyen, Assefa Desalew, Vera Marisa Costa, Mohammad Fareed, Ronny Westerman, Maciej Banach, Paul S. F. Yip, Kala M. Mehta, Mehdi Yaseri, Quique Bassat, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Fatemeh Rajati, Irina Filip, Gelin Xu, Derrick A Bennett, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Fariba Ghassemi, Behzad Karami Matin, David C. Schwebel, Syed Ather Hussain, Milena Ilic, Xiu Ju Zhao, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Mostafa Hosseini, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Santosh Varughese, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Chalachew Genet Akal, Chabila C Mapoma, Aubrey J. Levine, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Rufus A. Adedoyin, Gudlavalleti Vs Murthy, Amir Khater, Olufemi Ajumobi, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Mehdi Ahmadi, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Richard C. Franklin, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Dhirendra N Sinha, Shai Linn, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Abdullah Al Mamun, Yoshan Moodley, Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Hajer Elkout, Mohammad Zamani, Yousef Mohammad, Yousef Veisani, Iman El Sayed, Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis, Alex Yeshaneh, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Pushpendra Kumar, Engida Yisma, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Kebede Deribe, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Ayele Geleto Bali, Platon D. Lopukhov, Paula Moraga, Giovanni Damiani, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Hossein Farzam, Amir Kasaeian, Taye Abuhay Zewale, Ben Lacey, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Ali Kabir, Lal B. Rawal, Juan Sanabria, Ehsan Khodamoradi, Saeed Amini, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Aberash Abay Tassew, Sezer Kisa, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Hosni Salem, Ayman Grada, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mina Anjomshoa, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Maryam Adabi, Nuworza Kugbey, Rahman Shiri, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Nader Jahanmehr, Yuming Guo, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Mehdi Naderi, Ziad A. Memish, Adnan Kisa, Gbenga A. Kayode, Yafeng Wang, Ehsan Sadeghi, Behnam Heidari, Apurba Shil, Kamarul Imran Musa, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Farshad Pourmalek, Saravanan Muthupandian, Navid Rabiee, Mario Poljak, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Sameh Magdeldin, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Khanh Bao Tran, James A Platts-Mills, Jan-Walter De Neve, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Hedley Quintana, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Eric L. Ding, Noushin Mohammadifard, Saeed Safari, Addisu Melese, Rakesh Lodha, Reza Shirkoohi, Itamar S. Santos, Alireza Khatony, Mohammad Khazaei, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Taweewat Wiangkham, Hamed Kalani, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Frank B. Osei, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Konrad Pesudovs, Kewal Krishan, Samath D Dharmaratne, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Tina Beyranvand, Yahya Salimi, Winfried März, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Azmeraw T. Amare, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Maha El Tantawi, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Susanna Dunachie, Shymaa Enany, Anelisa Jaca, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Salvatore Rubino, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Indang Trihandini, Bartosz Miazgowski, Huda Basaleem, Zahid A Butt, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Navid Manafi, Si Si, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, Andrea Farioli, Masoud Moradi, Joseph Frostad, Collins Chansa, Enrico Rubagotti, Edward J Mills, Senbagam Duraisamy, Foad Abd-Allah, Moses K. Muriithi, Elias Merdassa Roro, Netsanet Fentahun, Kenji Shibuya, Amira Hamed Darwish, Ai-Min Wu, Tomohide Yamada, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Sonia Lewycka, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo, Faris Lami, Aziz Eftekhari, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, André Karch, Suraj Bhattarai, Mona M. Khater, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Padukudru Anand Mahesh, Alexandre C. Pereira, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, In-Hwan Oh, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Margaret Kosek, Yunquan Zhang, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Rahul Gupta, Claudiu Herteliu, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Oliver J. Brady, Samad Azari, Ebrahim M Yimer, Andrew T Olagunju, Ana Laura Manda, Ali Rostami, Aniruddha Deshpande, Ninuk Hariyani, Gulfaraz Khan, Narinder Pal Singh, Dabere Nigatu, Jae Il Shin, Preeti Dhillon, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Michelle L. Bell, Rakhi Dandona, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Obinna Onwujekwe, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Tanuj Kanchan, Suleman Atique, Rovshan Khalilov, Ai Koyanagi, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Jalal Arabloo, Ahmed Abdelalim, Van C. Lansingh, Ali Almasi, Catherine A. Welgan, Surendra Karki, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Akram Pourshams, Mowafa Househ, Dilaram Acharya, Getnet Mengistu, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Salman Khazaei, Bahram Armoon, Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, David Laith Rawaf, Ali S. Akanda, Till Bärnighausen, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Ahmed Omar Bali, Norberto Perico, Sergio I. Prada, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Helen Derara Diro, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Ajay Patle, Simin Mouodi, Yuan-Pang Wang, Alireza Esteghamati, Paramjit Gill, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Meghnath Dhimal, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Nader Jafari Balalami, Lucas Earl, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Franz Castro, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Sebastian Vollmer, Getinet Ayano, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, John S. Ji, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Arash Etemadi, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nefsu Awoke, Anton Sokhan, Daniel Adane Endalew, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi, Jacek Jóźwiak, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Degu Abate, Ali S. Shalash, Hamidreza Haririan, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Davide Guido, Masoud Foroutan, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Niranjan Kissoon, Farkhonde Salehi, Ashish Awasthi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Anthony Masaka, Getenet Dessie, Fakher Rahim, Aklilu Endalamaw, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Farzad Manafi, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Vahid Alipour, Neeraj Bedi, Kimberly B. Johnson, Laurie B. Marczak, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Amira Shaheen, Zubair Kabir, Saleem Muhammad Rana, Marzieh Nojomi, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Tissa Wijeratne, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Carlo La Vecchia, Chuanhua Yu, Pascual R. Valdez, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Liliana Preotescu, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Keivan Ahmadi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Ken Lee Chin, Dinh-Toi Chu, Francesco Saverio Violante, Yasir Waheed, Daniel Diaz, Rosario Cárdenas, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Nauman Khalid, Nejimu Biza Zepro, Turki Alanzi, Amir Jalali, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Nuruzzaman Khan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Christiane Dolecek, Melese Abate Reta, Vinay Nangia, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Ravi Mehrotra, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Brigette F. Blacker, Savita Lasrado, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Arash Ziapour, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Praveen Hoogar, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Mahdi Safdarian, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Chi Linh Hoang, Boikhutso Tlou, Manfred Accrombessi, Christopher J L Murray, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Hossein Poustchi, Farid Najafi, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Christopher Troeger, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Paul H. Lee, Genet Melak Alamene, George C Patton, Andem Effiong, André Faro, Rushdia Ahmed, Colm McAlinden, Parvaneh Mirabi, Joshua Longbottom, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Alireza Rafiei, Somayeh Bohlouli, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Javad Nazari, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Sanghamitra Pati, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Khaled Khatab, Evanson Z. Sambala, Mohsen Afarideh, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Mustafa Z. Younis, Hamed Zandian, Aparna Lal, Tamer H. Farag, Tahereh Pashaei, Benn Sartorius, Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Marwa Rashad Salem, Davide Rasella, Hedayat Abbastabar, Manu Raj Mathur, Peng Jia, Natalie Maria Cormier, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Kirsten E. Wiens, Ghobad Moradi, Srinivas Goli, Ruth W Kimokoti, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Khalid A Altirkawi, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Alaa Badawi, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Getnet Azeze Gedefaw, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Eleonora Dubljanin, Amir Hasanzadeh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Fereshteh Ansari, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Agus Sudaryanto, Muhammad Ali, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Leonardo Roever, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Maheswar Satpathy, Asnakew Achaw Ayele, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Yibeltal Alemu Bekele, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Luca Ronfani, James Albright, Nathaniel J. Henry, Ionut Negoi, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Brijesh Sathian, Yousef Khader, Bal Govind Chauhan, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Ali Bijani, Irfan Ullah, Shirin Djalalinia, Shanshan Li, Kebreab Paulos, Mohsen Bayati, Nasir Salam, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Rajesh Sagar, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Siamak Sabour, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Mathew M. Baumann, Mehedi Hasan, Vishnu Renjith, Nuno Taveira, Getaneh Alemu Abebe, Pranab Chatterjee, Shafiu Mohammed, Dongyu Zhang, Abbas Mosapour, Muki Shey, Rajat Das Gupta, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Satar Rezaei, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Eugenio Traini, Oladimeji Adebayo, Aisha Elsharkawy, David M. Pigott, Hadi Hassankhani, Anas M. Saad, Mohammad Rabiee, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Abdallah M. Samy, Ali Talha Khalil, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Afsaneh Arzani, Ayesha Humayun, Michael Tamene Haile, Huyen Phuc Do, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Rajeev Gupta, Davoud Adham, Farah Daoud, Jai K Das, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Joel M. Francis, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Brian J. Hall, Ravi Prakash Jha, David Teye Doku, Guoqing Hu, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Ali Yadollahpour, Masoud Behzadifar, and G Anil Kumar
Subjects: Burden of disease, 030219 obstetrics & reproductive medicine, business.industry, Low income and middle income countries, General Medicine, Specific mortality, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Article, 3. Good health, 03 medical and health sciences, Geography, 0302 clinical medicine, Environmental health, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Geographical inequalities, business, Demography
Abstract: Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
Published: 2018
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9 results on '"Chalachew Genet Akal"'

1. A Cross-Sectional Study to Assess Capacity of Health Facility Laboratories in Zone One of Afar Regional State, Ethiopia

2. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years

3. Seroconfirmed Typhoid Fever and Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices among Febrile Patients Attending at Injibara General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

4. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

5. Status of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) Services Utilization and Factors Affecting PMTCT Service Uptake by Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Care Clinic in Selected Health Facilities of Afar Regional State, Ethiopia

6. Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

7. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

8. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

9. Department of Error

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