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International audience; This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess cobenefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of developmentpolicies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years.; Cet article 1 examine les enjeux sous-jacents à l'évaluation des cobénéfices des politiques climatiques dans le cadre de la mise en oeuvre de politiques multi-objectifs, au sein lesquelles des synergies sont recherchées entre la lutte contre le changement climatique et des objectifs de développement (emploi, santé, sortie de la pauvreté, etc.). L'analyse du cinquième rapport du groupe III du GIEC montre en effet un intérêt grandissant dans la littérature pour les évaluations quantifiées des cobénéfices, en particulier à l'aide de modèles numériques intégrés. Néanmoins, l'évaluation quantifiée à une échelle globale des cobénéfices est confrontée à des difficultés d'ordre méthodologique qui expliquent l'écart entre les pratiques des modélisateurs et la vision théorique des économistes qui repose sur l'analyse coûts-bénéfices. L'article revient enfin sur la nécessité d'élargir le champ d'investigation de l'évaluation des cobénéfices aux politiques non climatiques qui déterminent une part importante des émissions de GES, et constituent un des enjeux majeurs des approches intégrées climat-développement qui montent en puissance dans les négociations climat en cours. Abstract – Co-benefits of climate policies: a potential keystone of climate negotiations? This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess co-benefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years.

This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess cobenefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years., Cet article 1 examine les enjeux sous-jacents à l'évaluation des cobénéfices des politiques climatiques dans le cadre de la mise en oeuvre de politiques multi-objectifs, au sein lesquelles des synergies sont recherchées entre la lutte contre le changement climatique et des objectifs de développement (emploi, santé, sortie de la pauvreté, etc.). L'analyse du cinquième rapport du groupe III du GIEC montre en effet un intérêt grandissant dans la littérature pour les évaluations quantifiées des cobénéfices, en particulier à l'aide de modèles numériques intégrés. Néanmoins, l'évaluation quantifiée à une échelle globale des cobénéfices est confrontée à des difficultés d'ordre méthodologique qui expliquent l'écart entre les pratiques des modélisateurs et la vision théorique des économistes qui repose sur l'analyse coûts-bénéfices. L'article revient enfin sur la nécessité d'élargir le champ d'investigation de l'évaluation des cobénéfices aux politiques non climatiques qui déterminent une part importante des émissions de GES, et constituent un des enjeux majeurs des approches intégrées climat-développement qui montent en puissance dans les négociations climat en cours. Abstract – Co-benefits of climate policies: a potential keystone of climate negotiations? This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess co-benefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years.

International audience; This paper reviews the conditions for ensuring the space consolidation and time reconciliation of all scales involved in power system energy planning. At the upper space scale, a simplified description of the grid based on the Kuramoto model is adopted to assess the stability of the synchronism state of the power system. The consequences of a massive dissemination of renewables for the future of the power system is addressed in the case of France in a long-term planning exercise up to 2050. Attention is paid to how the new capacities are dispatched among the administrative regions. While a favorable impact of sparse generation on the synchronism is obtained, the constraint on the inertia provided by the kinetic energy has to be endogenized to enforce an operable power mix under admissible disturbances.

International audience; The transport sector represents 25% of global CO2 emissions, and large-scale emission reductions are needed in this sector to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Long term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategies are key enabling instruments to reconcile near-to-medium term action with long term objectives. While a range of options exist to decarbonise the passenger transport sector, the detailed sequencing of actions and resulting transformations over time remain largely unexplained in policy debates. Scenarios from transport-energy modelling provide useful insights about technological strategies but often overlook other key drivers of transportation futures, including social, organisational and spatial determinants of mobility, and are not easily usable to inform policy discussions. In this paper, we introduce a new framework to design and compare long term national decarbonization pathways for passenger transportation. This framework is based on an iterative method combining detailed qualitative storylines, full scenario quantification and standardised dashboard reporting, adapted from the general Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) framework. For illustration, the method is applied by four national research teams in Japan, the UK, Mexico and France, to derive country-specific decarbonization pathways. The results across countries show that: i) strong action is needed across all types of options to reach deep decarbonization, notably demand-side solutions; ii) deep decarbonization is compatible with other policy priorities such as satisfying mobility needs at affordable costs; and iii) strategies should be tailored to mobility purpose, local contexts and national circumstances. The framework can be adapted to other sectors and should be further developed in the context of future policy processes. Key Policy insights-Understanding deep decarbonization of the passenger transport sector requires a novel conceptual approach that articulates metrics across diverse dimensions (social, economic, energy, etc.) to increase policy relevance.-We introduce a framework to design national decarbonization pathways for passenger transportation following this approach.-Strong action across all pillars of decarbonization including demand-side solutions is needed to reach deep emissions reductions.-Deep decarbonization is compatible with other policy priorities such as satisfying mobility needs at affordable costs.-Strategies should be tailored to mobility purposes, local contexts and national circumstances.

International audience; When modelling medium and long-term challenges we need a reference path of economic development (the so-called baseline). Because sectoral models often offer a more fundamental understanding of future developments for specific sectors, many CGE modeling teams have adopted different kinds of linking approaches to sectoral models to generate baselines. We systematically compare and discuss approaches of linking CGE models for the baseline calibration procedure, and discuss best practices and pitfalls. We identify different types of linking approaches which we divide into a) links with partial equilibrium models, and b) links with non-economic models. These two types of linking approaches are then analyzed with respect to e.g. the degree of linkage, information exchanged, as well as compromises in aggregations and definitions. Based on this, we discuss potential drawbacks and conclude with suggestions for best practices and research recommendations.

International audience; This paper provides a retrospective analysis to apprehend the challenges entailed by a future energy transition aiming to achieve carbon neutrality. This low-carbon transition will not boil down to a new Industrial Revolution and the lessons learned from past events will not necessarily be usable as they stand. Namely, we draw attention to the spontaneous nature of past energy transitions. Unlike past transitions, the low-carbon energy transition will not happen spontaneously and will require active coordination between all actors at global, national and local levels, coupled with controls to effectively target a carbon neutrality goal. The role of governments will be crucial to steer this process.

International audience; Although a rapidly growing economy, India faces many challenges, including in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Moreover, post-2020 climate actions outlined in India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement envision development along low-carbon emission pathways. With coal providing almost three-quarters of Indian electricity, achieving such targets will have wide-ranging implications for economic activity. Assessing such implications is the focus of our research. To do so, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model. This hybrid architecture rests upon an original dataset that brings together national accounting, energy balance and energy price data. We analyse four scenarios ranging to mid-century: business-as-usual (BAU), 2°C, sustainable 2°C and 1.5°C. Our 2°C pathway proves compatible with economic growth close to the 6% yearly rate of BAU from 2012 to 2050, at the cost of reduced household consumption but with significant positive impact on foreign debt accumulation. The latter impact stems from improvement of the trade balance, whose current large deficit is the primary cause of high fossil fuel imports. Further mitigation effort backing our 1.5°C scenario shows slightly higher annual GDP growth, thereby revealing potential synergies between deep environmental performance and economic growth. Structural change assumptions common to our scenarios significantly transform the activity shares of sectors. The envisioned transition will require appropriate policies, notably to manage the conflicting interests of entrenched players in traditional sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging players of the low-carbon economy.

International audience; In the context of climate change mitigation and the Paris Agreement, it is critical to monitor and understand the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions over different regions of the world. In this study, we quantify the contributions of different drivers behind the observed emission decrease in Europe between 2009 and 2014. To this end, we build a novel dataset of deflated input-output tables for each of the 28 EU countries. This dataset enables us to conduct the first Structural Decomposition Analysis of emissions in European countries since the economic crisis. Our results show that the largest drivers of emissions have been the improvement in carbon intensity (−394 MtCO 2 e), largely offset by the economic recovery (+285 MtCO 2 e). However, other less intuitive drivers also played a significant role in the emission decline: changes in the production system (−104 MtCO 2 e), mostly driven by an increase in imports; the evolution of final demand patterns (−101 MtCO 2 e); a decrease in emissions due to household heating (−83 MtCO 2 e) and private transport (−24 MtCO 2 e), with a small offset from population growth (+39 MtCO 2 e). However, these aggregate figures mask significant variations between EU countries which we also document. This study highlights the importance of including changes in consumption patterns, trade and temperature anomalies in tracking and fostering progress towards the Paris Agreement goals.

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Long-lived capital-stocks (LLCS) such as infrastructure and buildings have significant and long-lasting implications for greenhouse gas emissions. They contribute to carbon lock-in and may hinder a rapid decarbonization of energy systems. Here we provide a systematic map of the literature on carbon lock-in induced by LLCS. Based on a structured search of the Web of Science and Scopus, we identified 226 publications from 38 095 search results using a supervised machine learning approach. We show biases toward power generation and toward developed countries. We also identify 11 indicators used to quantify carbon lock-in. Quantifications of committed emissions (cumulative emissions that would occur over the remaining operational lifetime of an asset) or stranded assets (premature retirement/retrofitting or under-utilization of assets along a given pathway) are the most commonly used metrics, whereas institutional indicators are scarcely represented. The synthesis of quantifications shows that (i) global committed emissions have slightly increased over time, (ii) coal power plants are a major source of committed emissions and are exposed to risk of becoming stranded, (iii) delayed mitigation action increases stranded assets and (iv) sectoral distribution and amount of stranded assets differ between countries. A thematic analysis of policy implications highlights the need to assure stability and legitimacy of climate policies and to enable coordination between stakeholders. Carbon pricing is one of the most cited policy instrument, but the literature emphasizes that it should not be the only instrument used and should instead be complemented with other policy instruments, such as technical regulations and financial support for low carbon capital deployment. Further research is warranted on urban-scale, in developing countries and outside the electricity generation sector, notably on buildings, where stranded assets could be high.

As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic analysis, community building, and by suggesting next steps for evaluating this body of literature.

International audience; La mobilité est au coeur des débats sur la transition énergétique. Premier émetteur de gaz à effet de serre, premier poste de dépense des ménages en France, le secteur du transport doit être repensé pour mieux faire face aux problématiques environnementales. La loi d’orientation des mobilités fraîchement promulguée prône les modes de déplacement doux pour les transports du quotidien. Néanmoins, la mobilité englobe aussi le transport longue distance de personnes et de marchandises. Dans ce contexte, les enjeux se recentrent alors sur les technologies à notre disposition pour décarboner ces moyens de transport.Dans cet ouvrage collectif proposé par les élèves du Mastère Spécialisé OSE, les vecteurs énergétiques les plus avancés pour envisager une mobilité des biens et des personnes la plus décarbonée possible sont comparés. Électricité, biogaz, biocarburants, hydrogène sont autant de vecteurs pouvant participer à la réduction de l’impact environnemental du secteur. Néanmoins, en fonction des objectifs variés des pays, les leviers proposés comme les nouvelles pratiques ou l’intermodalité ne suffisent pas pour répondre à la demande toujours croissante de mobilité. Les innovations technologiques au niveau des hydrocarbures, mais aussi des moteurs thermiques, viennent élargir la palette des solutions envisageables.Quel que soit le vecteur énergétique, une attention particulière doit être portée à son usage en traitant l’ensemble de la chaîne permettant sa mise à disposition. Une analyse de cycle de vie semble donc pertinente pour tenter de comparer ces différents vecteurs. Ils pourront ainsi être évalués en tenant compte de toutes les infrastructures nécessaires à leur développement du berceau à la tombe. Une projection sur le long terme intégrant différents scénarios de déploiement vient compléter l’ouvrage par une analyse des exercices de prospective dédiés à la mobilité ayant eu lieu ces derniers années.Vous trouverez dans ce livre un état des lieux et des pistes de réfl exion argumentées sur tous les éléments à envisager

International audience; In this paper, we examine how to trigger a wave of low-carbon investments compatible with the wellbelow 2°C target of the Paris Agreement in the current post-pandemic context of increasing private and public debt. We argue that one major obstacle to catalyzing global excess savings at sufficient scale and speed on climate mitigation, and to 'greening' economic recovery packages, lies in the upfront risks of low-carbon investment. We then explain why public guarantees should be the preferred risk-sharing instrument to overcome that obstacle. We outline the basic principles of a multilateral sovereign guarantee mechanism able to maximize the leverage effect of public funds and massively redirect global savings towards low-carbon investments, with the double benefit of bridging the infrastructure investment gap in developing countries and reducing tension between developed and developing countries around accelerated funding for low-carbon transitions. We carry out numerical simulations demonstrating how the use of guarantees from AAA-rated sovereigns, calibrated on an agreed-upon 'social value of carbon', is compatible with public-budget constraints of developed countries. In summary, the use of such guarantee mechanisms provides a new form of 'where flexibility', which could turn real-world heterogeneity into a source of reciprocal gains for both developed and developing countries, and contribute to meeting the USD 100 billion + pledge of the Paris Agreement. Key policy insightsCatalyzing excess world savings through low-carbon investments (LCIs) would secure a safer and fairer economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and avoid locking developing countries into carbon-intensive pathways. Public policy instruments focused on creation of public guarantees can reduce the up-front financial risks associated with LCIs, mobilize private money and increase the leverage of public finance. A multi-sovereign guarantee mechanism would yield financial support from developed to developing countries in cash grant equivalent and equity inflows two to four times higher than the 'USD 100 billion and more' commitment of the Paris Agreement, and provide greater confidence in meeting this commitment equitably and effectively with benefits for all.

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International audience; To overcome the negative environemental impact of the actual power system, an optimal description of quasi-static electromagnetics relying on a reversible interpretation of the Faraday’s law is given. Due to the overabundance of carbon-free energy sources, this description makes it possible to consider an evolution towards an energy system favoring low-carbon technologies. The management for changing is then explored through a simplified linear-programming problem and an analogy with phase transitions in physics is drawn.

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International audience; This paper explores the effects of lockdown on French energy uses in order to provide a source of information on the link between lifestyle and energy uses for the construction of long-term energy demand scenarios. The aim of the first constructed scenario is to evaluate whether French carbon neutrality objectives could be attained by 2050 if we were to pursue the lifestyle imposed during lockdown for a long period. This scenario will allow us to put into perspective the scale of behavioral changes necessary to achieve the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The second scenario considers the experiment of lockdown as a source of lifestyle mutations leading to more energy sobriety. This scenario is an alternative proposal for avoiding a rebound in greenhouse gas emissions after the crisis.

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.

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Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

Long-term energy planning models and dispatch simulations are two key stages in the methodology for a cost-effective transition to a low-carbon power system. Although these stages are equally important, they are often performed independently. This decoupled approach can lead to future investment trajectories decided by long-term energy planning models with no guarantee of a reliable electricity supply. To tackle this problem, the aim of this study was to develop a general methodological framework using a multi-model approach to address adequacy requirements in the long term. An automated soft-linking model was used to successively: i. Plan the optimal power generation mix to satisfy a given level of future expected electricity demand subject to various constraints using the TIMES framework (The Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System). ii. Assess the adequacy of the obtained power generation mix under several climatic and operational future states using the probabilistic operational open-source model ANTARES (A New Tool for the generation Adequacy Reporting of Electric Systems). iii. Implement iterative feedback loops based on the estimated ability of different generating technologies to support peak demand (capacity credit) to ensure a total firm capacity in line with the electricity supply criterion. This methodology was applied to a case study of power generation planning in France for the period 2013–2050. The results show that using TIMES alone provides a power generation mix for 2030 that risks insufficient supply levels. On the other hand, activating iterative feedback loops over capacity-credit exogenous parameters has the potential to ensure both the economic effectiveness of the mix and the security of the electricity supply criterion set by the French public authorities.

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World agriculture needs to find the right balance to cope with the trilemma between feeding a growing population, reducing its impact on biodiversity and minimizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, we evaluate a broad range of scenarios that achieve 4.3 GtCO2,eq/year GHG mitigation in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector by 2100. Scenarios include varying mixes of three GHG mitigation policies: second-generation biofuel production, dietary change and reforestation of pasture. We find that focusing mitigation on a single policy can lead to positive results for a single indicator of food security or biodiversity conservation, but with significant negative side effects on others. A balanced portfolio of all three mitigation policies, while not optimal for any single criterion, minimizes trade-offs by avoiding large negative effects on food security and biodiversity conservation. At the regional scale, the trade-off seen globally between biodiversity and food security is nuanced by different regional contexts.

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The increased use of legumes is viewed as a promising option to mitigate climate change, as they are a source of proteins and provide nitrogen to the soil. In this paper, we evaluate a strategy for the increased use of legumes in Europe until 2050 by integrating a large array of food and natural system processes into a consistent modeling framework. Three contrasting scenarios are studied: a supply-side scenario entailing a change in the animal feed mix, a demand-side scenario entailing a shift in human diet, and a combination of the shift in human diet with a reforestation in Europe. We find that mitigated emissions are much higher in the two diet shift scenarios (-231 and -259 MtCO2eq, respectively) than in the supply-side scenario (-10 MtCO2eq). Therefore, the main environmental benefit of legumes is to provide proteins as a substitute for animal products rather than enabling a lower consumption of synthetic fertilizer through increased leguminous nitrogen fixation. Diet shift scenarios require a lower use of lands that can then be used to either reduce intensification or reforest. In the former case, the reduction in emissions concerns almost exclusively non-CO2 emissions, mainly through enteric fermentation and manure management, and occurs largely outside Europe. In the latter case, the livestock sector still represents a substantial share of the emission reduction but is outpaced by CO2 emissions through carbon sequestration. An increase in legume production substantially reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the AFOLU sector only when combined with a change in diet, and its combination with reforestation allows the emission reduction to be relocated to Europe through carbon sequestration. Our study concludes that an increase in legume production accompanied by appropriate measures on both the supply and demand side can be effective in reducing emissions. These results can be used to design the European Commission’s “Farm to Fork” strategy for sustainable food and to support climate-friendly farming practices of the post-2020 European common agricultural policy.

International audience; Cities need to project themselves on the long-term to achieve sustainable planningchoices. Scientific community can help through prospective models providingdecision support. To be effective and easily discussed, models outputs can besummed up through simple and explicit indicators. These indicators make iteasier to compare trajectories and to evaluate the relevance of the modelinghypothesis with stakeholders. Indeed, to collaborate with urban planners, quiteunused to scientific modelling approaches in France, we understood that a clearvisualisation and representation of the trajectories of the long-term evolution isnecessary. Thus, we propose here an approach computing macro indicators tostudy urban sustainable development and assess a land allocation model. Themethodology can be divided in three phases: a long-term land-use allocationmodel creating pathways for global evolution of urban main sectors, a spatiallyexplicit dispatcher recreating the maps from the run and a post-processing toolcomputing the macro indicators. All steps are based on optimal tools but wereseparated because of deeply different logics. We apply this outline to BordeauxMétropole, a French Southwestern metropolitan territory.The first prospective model is based on an optimal bottom-up paradigm. Tofulfil a final demand of housing, mobility and jobs, the optimiser can investin archetypes of various types: urban shapes, that use the land and allocateit to different uses (natural, residential or activity, roads, etc.), and buildings,that transform buildable land into housing, jobs and public equipments. Thesearchetypes were previously characterized through statistical study of 2014 Bordeauxdata (available publicly from national institutes). The optimisation isbased on minimising the artificial land while answering the demand and theaccent is therefore put on the densification. Whereas discussable as densityis not so clearly and unequivocally linked with environmental efficiency, thischoice was motivated by Bordeaux’s situation: the city is located near highlyused agricultural lands (such as wine producers) and is already perceived as toomineral by its inhabitants. This model is then used to study a high demographicgrowth scenario where the population doubles in 2050 compared to 2014 insteadof increasing by 35%.We project the results of the long-term model at a finer geographical scalethrough constrained maps and thereafter compute various indicators such asthe temperature and the overall imperviousness. The computation of the macroindicators not available in the model is based on a prephase of data collectionand modelling. We present here temperature case that can help study UHIphenomenon: we retrieved data from MeteoFrance results that we tried tolink with global urban parameters (such as built density, impervious surface,natural area density, etc.) through bibliography study, statistical correlationsand different machine-learning models. The goal here is to be able to evaluatethe temperature by postprocessing the outputs of the main model and thereforecompare the effects of the two scenarios on Bordeaux warming.The preliminary results on the first two steps show a strong densification of thedifferent neighborhoods, result expected as presented above. The model makesa strong use of buildings elevation in certain regions.

International audience

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement.

International audience

International audience Whereas the emergence and spread of technological innovations have continually reshaped the organisation of our societies and our ways of life, the autonomous vehicle is announced as one of the major innovations of the coming decades likely to have an impact on the activities we practice, the places we inhabit and the ways we occupy them (Das et al., 2017; Legacy et al., 2019). Given that, our research is motivated by the following question: will autonomous vehicles contribute to the advent of low-carbon lifestyles?

International audience; La question de la transition énergétique se pose comme une réforme nécessaire des solutions énergétiques dans leur ensemble : comment réduire leur empreinte carbone, en termes de production d’énergie, mais aussi dans notre utilisation de celle-ci au quotidien et ce, à travers le globe ? Cette question complexe nécessite une approche systémique afin que des solutions performantes, durables et favorables pour l’environnement puissent émerger.Dans ce contexte, nous nous sommes intéressés à l’hydrogène en tant que vecteur énergétique. Que ce soit au sein d’une entreprise, d’une ville, d’un pays, de zones interconnectées ou non, quelle solution peut apporter l’hydrogène au paysage énergétique de demain ? À travers quels systèmes énergétiques et dans quel contexte géographique pourrait-il se démarquer d’autres solutions ?De nombreuses recherches ont été effectuées sur le sujet, la plupart se concentrant sur des applications spécifiques de l’hydrogène. Cet ouvrage collectif proposé par les élèves du Mastère Spécialisé OSE a pour but d’analyser ce vecteur hydrogène-énergie dans sa globalité : la mobilité, la production d’énergie, son stockage, sa flexibilité, son apport dans les microgrids sont autant d’aspects qui seront traités à travers deux approches. La première, écosystémique, montrera l’intérêt de développer ce vecteur énergie en local alors que l’approche macro systémique y préfèrera des actions à grande échelle ; le tout tentant de montrer que l’hydrogène est un vecteur incontournable pour la transition énergétique.

International audience

International audience; Quels vecteurs énergétiques pour une mobilité décarbonnée ? – 26 septembre 2019 : 19e édition de l’événement organisé par les étudiants du Mastère Spécialisé© OSE (Optimisation des Systèmes Énergétiques) du Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de MINES ParisTech.Pour la promotion 2018 du Mastère Spécialisé© OSE de MINES ParisTech, la thématique des vecteurs énergétiques pour la mobilité a été le fil conducteur des sujets de réflexion tout au long de son année de formation.Le congrès OSE est l’un des aboutissements de ces réflexions. Parrainé par l’ADEME et soutenu par IZIVIA, GRTGAZ et la Chaire Modélisation Prospective au service du développement durable, il se compose de présentations articulées autour de deux tables rondes. Après un discours d’ouverture du Sénateur Marc DAUNIS, le contexte actuel de la mobilité a été exposé par l’ADEME. Les technologies au service de la mobilité ont ensuite été présentées (IFPEN, TOYOTA, ADEME) ainsi que les notions d’Analyse de Cycle de vie indispensables pour poser les fondements pour la première table ronde consacrée à « mettre l’usager au coeur du débat afin de dégager les vecteurs les plus pertinents à utiliser selon les usages » avec la participation de GRTGAZ, IZIVIA, ATAWEY et Scity.Coop. Après quelques illustrations de cas concrets (GRTAZ, SAP), la deuxième table ronde consacrée à « comment concilier les acteurs du public et du privé pour une mobilité durable ? » a réuni l’ADEME, Paragon Mobility, PitPoint, la région PACA et le Sénateur Marc Daunis. Enfin, une vision prospective a été présentée par la Chaire MPDD de MINES ParisTech, RTE, IFPEN et l’ADEME pour clôturer cette journée.Pourquoi un congrès sur le thème des vecteurs énergétiques pour une mobilité décarbonée ?Ce sujet est un enjeu d’actualité et au coeur des débats autour de la transition énergétique. Ledéveloppement de la mobilité décarbonée s’étend bien au-delà d’un simple exercice technico-économique, il est un vrai phénomène de société où doivent agir en symbiose les acteurs du public et du privé afin d’atteindre des objectifs très ambitieux. Le vecteur énergétique universel pour une mobilité décarbonée n’existe pas, on peut adapter les modes de transport au vecteur, mais la réciproque peut être toute aussi pertinente. Alors où se trouve le meilleur compromis? Le congrès OSE aborde ces domaines et tente d’éclairer des futurs possibles avec les acteurs qui développent et valorisent la mobilité décarbonée.Qui sont les intervenants ?Les conférenciers et invités des tables rondes sont des experts et représentants d’industries et d’institutions à même d’apporter une contribution inédite et pertinente aux nombreuses questions soulevées par l’avenir de la mobilité décarbonée.

International audience; Despite similarities in their current energy mixes, France and Sweden's pathways have been very different since the 1970s, when both systems were highly dependent on fossil fuels. After the oil crisis, both countries chose to reduce their oil consumption by developing nuclear power. However, Sweden pursued a more diversified energy policy that has subsequently allowed it to reduce its CO 2 emissions. Today, both countries have committed to a carbon neutrality goal: by 2045 for Sweden and 2050 for France. In order to understand the key factors that can drive energy transition toward a carbon neutrality goal, we propose to compare the past energy transitions in France and Sweden, two countries that have significantly reduced their CO 2 emissions and fossil fuel dependency. To assess the impacts of the current energy system and its regulations on the feasibility of meeting carbon neutrality, we use TIMES bottom-up energy system optimization models. The results show that France faces more challenges in transforming its energy system than Sweden i.e. an increase in power production, a decrease in gas consumption, the replacement of heating systems in buildings, and the electrification of industry, thus confirming that its energy policy has to be driven with a long-run perspective.

International audience; To cope with dependency of imported fossil fuels, high shares of renewable energy sources are expected to expand in electricity production in Small Islands. The case of Reunion Island that aims at having an electricity generation based to 100% on renewable energies by 2030 is analyzed using a bottom-up cost-optimization TIMES model. Future production mixes are providing according to different scenarios focusing on alternatives renewable energy sources. The case of Reunion Island provides a good example for the definition of an energy policy fostering renewable technologies to supply electricity and highlighting the crucial role of incentives policies.

International audience; Integrated assessment models are in general not constrained by mineral resource supply. In this paper, we introduce a material accounting method as a first step toward addressing the raw materials gap in the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM‐FR version). The method consists of attributing process‐based life cycle inventories (LCIs) taken from the ecoinvent 3.3 database to the TIAM‐FR technology processes constituting the global energy system. We demonstrate the method performing a prospective exercise on the electricity‐generating sector in a second shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2) baseline scenario on the 2010–2100 time horizon. We start by disaggregating the LCIs into three separate life phases (construction, operation, and decommissioning) and coupling them to their respective TIAM‐FR electric outputs (new capacities, electricity production, and end‐of‐life capacities) in order to estimate the annual mineral resource requirements. Prospective uses of fossil fuels and metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources are quantified dynamically at the life phase and regional levels (15 world regions). The construction of hydropower, solar power, and wind power plants generate increasing use of metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources in successive peak and valley periods. However, the use of fossil fuels is much higher than the use of mineral resources all along the horizon. Finally, we evaluate how sensitive the global material use is to the allocation of a share of infrastructure activities to the decommissioning phase. This approach could be extended to other integrated assessment models and possibly other energy sectors.

International audience; Reunion Island, a French overseas region located in the Indian Ocean, is facing a three-fold challenge combining demographics, the environment and energy. To limit its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels, Reunion Island aims to achieve energy autonomy by 2030 based on greater energy efficiency and renewable energy alternatives. The objective of this study is to analyze different scenarios to reach electricity autonomy and, at the same time, consider the wide-scale integration of renewable energy in the island's power system using the bottom-up optimization energy model TIMES-Reunion. Despite the tremendous potential of renewable energy sources present on the island, the transition to 100% renewable energy needs to be supported by incentives or constraints. Strong energy policies can both direct the choice of renewable resources and accelerate the renewable transition. The development of biomass on Reunion Island is economically interesting. The transition scenarios show that by 2030, electricity from biomass advantageously replaces electricity from coal and represents slightly more than 50% of electricity generation. Solar and wave/ocean energies are not the most cost effective option, but wind energy tends to disappear in the face of these energies more politically supported. A network regulation rule benefits biomass and is more detrimental to solar than to wave energy. The decarbonized transition of the power system incurs higher total discounted system costs due to the additional costs induced by the different incentives to promote certain renewables, with some pathways toward energy autonomy appearing more costly than others.

International audience; Due to its high short-term variability, solar-photovoltaic power in isolated industrial grids faces a challenge of grid reliability. Storage systems can provide grid support but come at a high cost that requires carefully evaluating power capacity needs. Battery sizing methodologies are now the focus of many studies, with a global upward trend in detailed modelling and complex optimization. However, although solar variability can be the source of uncertainties and battery oversizing, it rarely features as an input in scenarios. This study proposes several solar variability scenarios thanks to the wavelet-variability model and two variability metrics. These scenarios are employed as inputs in two sizing methodologies to compare the resulting battery capacity and draw conclusions on the role of modelling complexity and scenario identification. Results show that neglecting the photovoltaic power plant smoothing effect leads to an overestimation of the battery power support of 51%. In the other hand, complex dynamic modelling may reduce the battery power capacity by 25%. The economic analysis shows that a proper combination of variability scenario and battery sizing methodology may reduce the levelized costs of electricity by 3%.

International audience; Among the tools and processes that are used to inform decisions makers on the long-term challenges raised by energy transition, numerical models are at the forefront. Whether led at the global, continental, country or local level, they help projecting the future operational conditions of our energy systems. However the possibility of addressing the sustainability challenge by changes in our lifestyles rather than technical solutions often remains outside the scope of such models whereas lifestyles contain a set of key determinants of mobility, housing, spatial planning or the organization terms of the productive sectors (industry, agriculture, services). Energy is not consumed for itself and understanding how the future demand of energy services could be framed is an important issue. This paper makes proposals to improve the consideration of lifestyles in the quantitative foresight exercises. Our methodology includes the development of a statistical model of the dynamic of changes in lifestyle patterns to derive energy service demands. The use of this model provides a more coherent framework for the formulation of lifestyle change scenarios. A set of three lifestyles anticipated for France are then designed and discussed up to 2072.