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De provincie Zuid-Holland is bezig om tot een beleidskader voor een transitie naar een volledig circulaire economie in 2050 te komen. Daartoe heeft TNO verzocht om een beleidsvoorbereidend onderzoek te doen naar de directe, aanwijsbare invloed van een transitie naar een (meer) circulaire economie op de aard en omvang van werkgelegenheid in Zuid-Holland – aansluitend op de vijf prioriteiten in het Rijksbrede Programma Circulaire Economie: Biomassa en Voedsel, Bouw, Kunststoffen, Maakindustrie en Consumptiegoederen Samenvatting ............................................................................................................................ 2 1 Inleiding .................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Doel van het onderzoek ............................................................................................. 8 1.2 Methodische aanpak op basis van onderzoeksvragen ............................................. 8 1.3 Gehanteerde begrippen ............................................................................................. 9 2 De circulair economische transitie ...................................................................... 11 2.1 Waarom naar een (meer) circulaire economie? ...................................................... 11 2.2 Circulaire economie: een omschrijving .................................................................... 11 2.3 Duiding relatie Circulaire economie en werkgelegenheid ....................................... 13 2.4 Het circulaire-economie-beleid van de Rijksoverheid ............................................. 14 2.5 Externe drijfveren voor de Circulaire Economie ...................................................... 15 2.5.1 Digitalisering ............................................................................................................ 15 2.5.2 Energietransitie ........................................................................................................ 16 2.6 De relatie tussen het basispad en de effecten van circulair beleid ......................... 17 2.7 Opbouw van dit rapport ........................................................................................... 17 3 De (circulaire) economie van Zuid-Holland: de huidige status ........................ 19 3.1 Regionaal-economisch profiel en specialisaties ...................................................... 19 3.2 Circulaire activiteiten in de huidige economie van Zuid-Holland ............................. 22 4 Effecten van de transitie naar een meer circulaire economie op werkgelegenheid in Zuid-Holland ........................................................................ 25 4.1 Bevindingen recente studies over werkgelegenheid in de provincie Zuid-Holland . 25 4.2 Ontwikkeling van een scenario voor Zuid-Holland: selectie van meest relevante mechanismen en aangrijpingspunten van een meer circulaire economie richting 2040 ................................................................................................................................. 27 4.2.1 Analysemethoden van TNO en andere gezaghebbende gepubliceerde studies .... 27 4.2.2 Methodische aandachtspunten in de vorming van het CE-scenario ....................... 28 4.2.3 Trends en verwachte ontwikkelingen in economische activiteiten die niet worden meegenomen ........................................................................................................... 31 4.2.4 Overzicht van de bouwstenen ................................................................................. 31 4.3 Resultaten: gevolgen voor werkgelegenheid .......................................................... 39 4.4 Extra resultaten: gevolgen voor bijdrage klimaatbeleid ........................................... 46 4.5 Vertaling resultaten werkgelegenheidseffecten naar het Human Capital Akkoord . 46 5 Conclusies: de gevolgen van de transitie naar een circulaire economie op de werkgelegenheid in Zuid-Holland ........................................................................ 49 5.1 Conclusies ............................................................................................................... 49 5.2 Aanbevelingen voor vervolgonderzoek ................................................................... 51 BIJLAGE A: Circulaire activiteiten in Zuid-Holland (bron: PBL) ....................................... 54 BIJLAGE B: Innovatieve initiatieven in Zuid-Holland (bron: PBL) .................................... 55 BIJLAGE C: Circulaire sectoren (bron: PBL) ...................................................................... 64 BIJLAGE D: Illustratie opbouw van een Multi Regionale Input Output analyse.............. 66

De economie van de Metropoolregio Amsterdam in vogelvlucht De economie van de Metropoolregio Amsterdam (MRA) draait op volle toeren. Naar het zich laat aanzien, groeit de regio in 2020 voor het achtste jaar op rij. De groei ligt zowel boven het landelijk gemiddelde als boven dat van de grootstedelijke regio’s in de Europese Unie. De regio heeft zich daarmee zeer krachtig hersteld van de Grote Recessie. De grenzen van deze groei zijn echter in zicht: de verwachting is dat de groei in 2019 en 2020 zal uitkomen in de buurt van het langjarig gemiddelde van de MRA (2,7 procent), respectievelijk 2,8 en 2,3 procent. Daarmee ligt de verwachte economische groei van de MRA de komende twee jaar ongeveer 1 procentpunt hoger dan de door het Centraal Planbureau (CPB) verwachte groei van Nederland.

Voor u ligt de zevende editie van de Economische Verkenningen Metropoolregio Amsterdam. Een editie met voor de Metropoolregio Amsterdam (MRA) veel goed nieuws. De voorspoedige economische ontwikkelingen van de afgelopen jaren houden naar verwachting de komende jaren aan. Ook de werkloosheid neemt in een stevig tempo af. Met het aantreden van nieuwe gemeenteraden en -besturen dit voorjaar en de provinciale verkiezingen in het vooruitzicht, is dit een plezierige boodschap

Decisions on transport policy measures proposed by the European Union (EU) have long-term and important impacts on economy, environment and society. Transport policy measures can lock up capital for decades and cause manifold external effects – thus, policy measures may have a tremendous scope, especially if proposed on a European level. In order to allow European policy-makers to evaluate transport polices, a strategic assessment tool has been developed to compute economic, environmental and social impacts of transport policies.

The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, this thesis extends the existing theory on Impulse Control by deriving the necessary optimality conditions in current value formulation and provide a transformation such that the Impulse Control Maximum Principle can be applied to problems having a fixed cost. Moreover, this thesis points out that meaningful problems do not satisfy the sufficiency conditions. Second, in this thesis the Impulse Control Maximum Principle is applied to dike height optimization, forest management and product innovation. Third, this thesis describes several algorithms that can be used to solve Impulse Control problems

This paper determines the optimal timing of dike heightenings as well as the corresponding optimal dike heightenings to protect against floods. To derive the optimal policy we design an algorithm based on the Impulse Control Maximum Principle. In this way the paper presents one of the first real life applications of the Impulse Control Maximum Principle developed by Blaquiere. We show that the proposed Impulse Control approach performs better than Dynamic Programming with respect to computational time. This is caused by the fact that Impulse Control does not need discretization in time.

In this paper we describe three different algorithms, from which two (as far as we know) are new in the literature. We take both the size of the jump as the jump times as decision variables. The first (new) algorithm considers an Impulse Control problem as a (multipoint) Boundary Value Problem and uses a continuation technique to solve it. The second (new) approach is the continuation algorithm that requires the canonical system to be solved explicitly. This reduces the infinite dimensional problem to a finite dimensional system of, in general, nonlinear equations, without discretizing the problem. Finally, we present a gradient algorithm, where we reformulate the problem as a finite dimensional problem, which can be solved using some standard optimization techniques. As an application we solve a forest management problem and a dike heightening problem. We numerically compare the efficiency of our methods to other approaches, such as dynamic programming, backward algorithm and value function approach.

This paper considers a class of optimal control problems that allows jumps in the state variable. We present the necessary optimality conditions of the Impulse Control Maximum Principle based on the current value formulation. By reviewing the existing impulse control models in the literature, we point out that meaningful problems do not satisfy the sufficiency conditions. In particular, such problems either have a concave cost function, contain a fixed cost, or have a control-state interaction, which have in common that they each violate the concavity hypotheses used in the sufficiency theorem. The implication is that the corresponding problem in principle has multiple solutions that satisfy the necessary optimality conditions. Moreover, we argue that problems with fixed cost do not satisfy the conditions under which the necessary optimality conditions can be applied. However, we design a transformation, which ensures that the application of the Impulse Control Maximum Principle still provides the optimal solution. Finally, we show for the first time that for some existing models in the literature no optimal solution exists.

This paper determines the optimal timing of dike heightenings as well as the corresponding optimal dike heightenings to protect against floods. To derive the optimal policy we design an algorithm based on the Impulse Control Maximum Principle. In this way the paper presents one of the first real life applications of the Impulse Control Maximum Principle developed by Blaquiere. We show that the proposed Impulse Control approach performs better than Dynamic Programming with respect to computational time. This is caused by the fact that Impulse Control does not need discretization in time.

This paper considers a class of optimal control problems that allows jumps in the state variable. We present the necessary optimality conditions of the Impulse Control Maximum Principle based on the current value formulation. By reviewing the existing impulse control models in the literature, we point out that meaningful problems do not satisfy the sufficiency conditions. In particular, such problems either have a concave cost function, contain a fixed cost, or have a control-state interaction, which have in common that they each violate the concavity property of the underlying model. The implication is that the corresponding problem in principle has multiple solutions that satisfy the necessary optimality conditions. Moreover, we argue that problems with fixed cost do not satisfy the conditions under which the necessary optimality conditions can be applied. However, we design a transformation, which ensures that the application of the Impulse Control Maximum Principle still provides the optimal solution. Finally, we show for the first time that for some existing models in the literature no optimal solution exists.

This paper considers a firm that has the option to undertake product innovations. For each product innovation the firm has to install a new production plant. We find that investments are larger and occur in a later stadium when more of the old capital stock needs to be scrapped. Moreover, we obtain that the firm’s investments increase when the technology produces more profitable products. We see that the firm in the beginning of the planning period adopts new technologies faster as time proceeds, but later on the opposite happens. Furthermore, we find that the firm does not invest such that marginal profit is zero, but instead marginal profit is negative. Moreover, we find that if the time it takes to double the efficiency of technology is larger than the time it takes for the capital stock to depreciate, the firm undertakes an initial investment. Finally, we show that when demand decreases over time and when fixed investment cost is higher, that the firm invests less throughout the planning period, the time between two investments increases and that the first investment is delayed.