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This paper explores the role of cash usage in feeding the underground economy by using a unique dataset that combines, at province level, official estimates of Italian firms’ underreporting with data on cash transactions drawn from the aggregate anti-money laundering reports filed to the Italian Financial Intelligence Unit (UIF) by banks. In order to derive causal evidence, we apply two different econometric strategies: an instrumental variable approach and a difference-in-difference approach, which exploits the change in the maximum threshold for cash transactions introduced in 2016, thereby providing a measure of the effect of such policy on tax evasion. We find that an increase in cash usage translates, other things being equal, into a higher level of underreporting by firms, and that raising the cash threshold in 2016 – a measure motivated by the objective of boosting spending – had the side effect of leading to a larger underground economy.

This paper studies the relationship between logistics, intermodality and airport efficiency. To this end, using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the efficiency of the 21 largest European airports has been estimated over the 2009–2014 period. In a second stage, this research analyses the effect of Logistics and Modal Integration on airport efficiency. The airport's ability to compete globally depends, greatly, on the passengers and cargo’ access to efficient networks. The results show evidence of the positive impact of the quality of the national logistics system on Airport efficiency. The effect of Logistics on overall airport efficiency is estimated at 0.15% for every 1% increase in the Logistic Performance (LPI), ceteris paribus. Furthermore, airports that have a direct link to a High-Speed Rail (HSR) network are expected to perform, on average, 27 per cent above the rest of the airports. Finally, airports that offer more facilities to optimise the interface between airport and aircraft are expected to achieve higher efficiency levels.

Gender discrimination is often regarded as an important driver of women's disadvantage in the labour market, yet earlier studies show mixed results. However, because different studies employ different research designs, the estimates of discrimination cannot be compared across countries. By utilizing data from the first harmonized comparative field experiment on gender discrimination in hiring in six countries, we can directly compare employers' callbacks to fictitious male and female applicants. The countries included vary in a number of key institutional, economic, and cultural dimensions, yet we found no sign of discrimination against women. This cross-national finding constitutes an important and robust piece of evidence. Second, we found discrimination against men in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK, and no discrimination against men in Norway and the United States. However, in the pooled data the gender gradient hardly differs across countries. Our findings suggest that although employers operate in quite different institutional contexts, they regard female applicants as more suitable for jobs in female-dominated occupations, ceteris paribus, while we find no evidence that they regard male applicants as more suitable anywhere. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 649255; the Research Council of Norway, grant number 287016; The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), (016.Vidi.185.041). We thank Laura García Llamas and Louis Klobes for valuable research assistance.

This paper examines the impact of Covid‐19 lockdowns on exports by Chinese cities. We use city‐level export data at a monthly frequency from January 2018 through April 2020. Differences‐in‐differences estimates suggest cities in lockdown experienced a ceteris paribus 34 percentage points reduction in the year‐on‐year growth rate of exports. The lockdown impacted the intensive and extensive margin, with higher exit and lower new entry into foreign markets. The drop in exports was smaller in (i) coastal cities; (ii) cities with better‐developed ICT infrastructure; and (iii) cities with a larger share of potential teleworkers. Time‐sensitive and differentiated goods experienced a more pronounced decline in export growth. Global supply chain characteristics matter, with more upstream products and industries that had accumulated larger inventories experiencing a smaller decline in export growth. Also, products that relied more on imported (domestic) intermediates experienced a sharper (flatter) slowdown in export growth. The rapid recovery in cities' exports after lockdowns were lifted suggests the policy was cost‐effective in terms of its effects on trade.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can increase productivity and wages. However, it is also often accompanied by primary income deficits as foreign-owned firms repatriate their profits. The welfare effects of FDI are thus ambiguous. A particularly illustrative example of this phenomenon are the Visegrad 4 (V4) countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). This paper investigates whether FDI can be beneficial in the presence of profit repatriation using a general equilibrium model calibrated to the V4 economies. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the benefits of FDI outweigh the costs for these countries. On average, a 1% increase in the share of foreign firms is associated with a 0.17% increase in welfare. However, incentivising foreign firms to reinvest more of their profits domestically is, ceteris paribus, welfare-improving. A 10-percentage-point increase in the profit repatriation rate is associated with a 1.06% welfare gain on average.

How should central banks optimally aggregate sectoral inflation rates in the presence of imperfect labor mobility across sectors? We study this issue in a two-sector New-Keynesian model and show that a lower degree of sectoral labor mobility, ceteris paribus, increases the optimal weight on inflation in a sector that would otherwise receive a lower weight. We analytically and numerically find that, with limited labor mobility, adjustment to asymmetric shocks cannot fully occur through the reallocation of labor, thus putting more pressure on wages, causing inefficient movements in relative prices, and creating scope for central bank’ s intervention. These findings challenge standard central banks’ practice of computing sectoral inflation weights based solely on sector size and unveil a significant role for the degree of sectoral labor mobility to play in the optimal computation. In an extended estimated model of the US economy, featuring customary frictions and shocks, the estimated inflation weights imply a decrease in welfare up to 10% relative to the case of optimal weights.

The demands of modern farming can place substantial stress upon the farmer, adversely impacting their wellbeing. This study identifies both the prevalence of stress and assesses the demographic, farm, and social characteristics that impact the incidence of stress. We report the results of a survey of a nationally representative sample of farm enterprises in Ireland undertaken in association with the Teagasc National Farm Survey (NFS) in 2018, which saw 736 questionnaires completed by farm operators. Frequency analysis is used to report the primary sources and prevalence of stress. A probit model is developed identifying and quantifying the factors that impact the incidence of stress. There were 57% of farmers who reported experiencing stress resulting from their farm work. Key sources of stress included "poor weather", (47%), "workload" (32%) and "financial" concerns (28%). The results of the probit model establish that the effect of age on the incidence of stress is significant, positive, and non-linear, indicating as farmers get older they are more likely to experience stress but at a declining rate. Operating a sheep farm system, as opposed to any other type of farm system, reduces the probability of stress. Working off-farm also reduces the probability of stress by 0.097, other things being equal. The findings highlight variance in the levels of stress reported by farmers by age and farm system, and consequently, the need to develop targeted supports that take consideration of differences within the population of farmers and farm enterprises.

Deposit insurance system (DIS) exists for 17 years in Russia. The major deposit market share belongs to state banks. Ordinary depositors may perceive the status of the bank state ownership to reflect additional deposit safety, even in the excess of the DIS limits. Such a situation is called an “implicit deposit insurance” in the literature. By offering a sort of implicit deposit insurance services state banks might underprice the deposits in excess of DIS limits compared to the private banks. We utilize data from the open sources to measure the scale of the implicit deposit insurance pricing in Russian state banks. We have revealed that Russian state banks pay extra premium all other things being equal. More specifically, the premium is larger in the smallest and the largest state banks, than in the medium-sized ones. Thus, we claim that the implicit insurance premium has a U-shaped form for Russian state banks depending on their asset size. However, Russian state banks underprice all deposits all other things being equal. Additionally, we find out that IRB banks in Russia are more prone to set up higher deposit rates when they take on more risks, than non-IRB banks.

If beliefs are a map by which we steer, then, ceteris paribus, we should want a more accurate map. However, the world could be structured so as to punish learning with respect to certain topics—by ...

Protected areas (PAs) are often seen as opportunity costs and are therefore vulnerable to political decisions that open them up to public or private development initiatives. We reasoned that, ceteris paribus, PAs with high levels of public support should be more resilient to such decisions because; i) politicians in democratic societies are reluctant to make unpopular/controversial decisions that go against public opinion, and; ii) the proposed development of popular PAs is more likely to be met by vigorous resistance (‘push-back’) from NGOs and other societal actors. Nevertheless, public interest and, by extension, support for protected areas has rarely been considered in PA risk assessments. Here, we propose an innovative approach to assessing the political vulnerability of PAs that combines indices of developmental pressures (from the DOPA database) with an innovative culturomic-derived metric of public interest based on Wikipedia page views. Using automated methods, we quantify the political vulnerability status of 523 Brazilian PAs. Our analysis reveals a large number of PAs that may be politically vulnerable, being characterized by a combination of high developmental pressure and low/very low levels of public interest. For such PAs, we recommend managers take measures to increase public interest to ensure a healthy base of public support in the future. We conclude that digital metrics of public interest are simply and inexpensively generated, and could be easily incorporated into the existing assessment systems for protected areas.

This study aims to determine the effect of corruption on economic growth at the provincial level in Indonesia. This study uses a model based on the economic growth model of Levine and Renelt (1992). This study uses secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), and Transparency International Indonesia with the research period of 2014-2018. This study uses a panel data model with a cross-section of 16 (sixteen) provinces in Indonesia. This study uses a model with a Random Effect Model (REM) approach. The results showed that the corruption perception index, foreign direct investment (FDI), initial growth (EGt-1), government spending (GE) and labor (L) each had a positive and significant effect on economic growth (EG) in 16 provinces in Indonesia for the 2014-2018 period, ceteris paribus.

The paper aims to investigate the existence of a trade-off between financial market confidence and national government budget dynamics in the Eurozone. By comparing two indexes, the hypothesis of the existence of a constraint between credit default swaps and public deficits from 2009:I to 2014:I is tested. The results support the conclusion that – during the period of the Euro crisis – fiscal discipline was associated with decreasing confidence, and vice versa. The estimates identify a phenomenon whose prior is not set, suggesting that the decrease in financial market confidence comes with fiscal retrenchments, but also that fiscal retrenchments combine, other things being equal, with financial distress. The inability of financial markets to determine coherent behaviour in regard to fiscal stance provides grounds for thought on the need for common policy actions in the Eurozone.

This study revisits the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 which aims to “end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture” by highlighting the impact of environmental degradation (proxied by carbon emissions) and non-renewable energy on agro-productivity in Nigeria. Using annual time series data from 1980 to 2018, the study engages the Johansen cointegration and impulse response functions (IRFs) techniques within the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. Evidence reveals that carbon emissions significantly reduce agro-productivity by 0.23% while non-renewable energy boosts agro-productivity by 5.38%, on average, ceteris paribus. Other results reveal that domestic credit, rural population and arable land exert asymmetric effects. These outcomes are consistent and align with a priori expectations. Policy recommendations are discussed.

This paper studies the effect of income inequality on human capital inequality empirically across 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions of China during 1996-2018. Using a series of econometric approaches, including the two-way fixed-effect IV panel regression, we find that: (i) growing income inequality is associated with an expansion in human capital inequality, given all other things being equal, and (ii) increasing the growth rate of initial income, as an essential family resource to finance access to schooling, tends to weaken the positive effect of income inequality on human capital inequality. Our results are consistent with the existing theory, showing that impoverished households who have less family resources are more likely to be restrained from accessing better education opportunities under credit market imperfections. Moreover, our results are robust to alternative modeling specifications and estimation methods, including instrumental variables that address the problem of reverse causality arising from human capital inequality.

Objective Methods Results Conclusion We investigate the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior. Specifically, we assess the impact of Covid‐19 incidence rates, and the impact of temporal and spatial proximity to the crisis, on voter turnout in the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections.We use Ordinary Least Squares and Spatial Durbin Error models to evaluate sub‐national variation in municipal‐level Covid‐19 incidence and voter turnout. We include controls for political, economic, health, and state context.Ceteris paribus, increasing deaths in the month leading up to the election from 0.01 to 1 per 1000 people is associated with a 5 percentage point decrease in turnout;higher cases and deaths earlier in the pandemic are generally associated with higher turnout. Covid‐19 incidence rates in nearby municipalities affect local turnout in the same directions.Higher Covid‐19 incidence near the time of the election decreases voter turnout, while incidence farther from the election increases voter turnout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose This paper aims to inform strategies to enhance public procurement opportunities for women-owned small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). To do so, the study examines two research questions: To what extent are women-owned enterprises under-represented among SME suppliers to government; and Do barriers to public procurement – as perceived by SME owners – differ across gender? Design/methodology/approach The study draws on the resource-based view (RBV) of the firm and on theories of role congruity and social feminism to develop the study’s hypotheses. Empirical analyses rely on comparisons of a sample of 1,021 SMEs that had been suppliers to government and 9,376 employer firms that had not been suppliers to government. Data were collected by Statistics Canada and are nationally representative. Logistic regression analysis was used to control for systemic firm and owner differences. Findings Controlling firm and owner attributes, majority women-owned businesses were underrepresented as SME suppliers to government in some, but not all sectors. Women-owned SMEs in Wholesale and Retail and in Other Services were, ceteris paribus, half as likely as to be government suppliers as counterpart SMEs owned by men. Among Goods Producers and for Professional, Scientific and Technical Services SMEs, there were no significant gender differences in the propensity to supply the federal government. “Complexity of the contracting process” and “difficulty finding contract opportunities” were the obstacles to contracting cited most frequently. Research limitations/implications The limitations of using secondary analyses of data are well documented and apply here. The findings reflect only the perspectives of “successful bidders” and do not capture SMEs that submitted bids but were not successful. Furthermore, the survey did not include questions about sub-contractor enterprises, data that would likely provide even more insights about SMEs in government supply chains. Accordingly, the study could not address sub-contracting strategies to increase the number of women-owned businesses on government contracts. Statistics Canada’s privacy protocols also limited the extent to which the research team could examine sub-groups of small business owners, such as visible minorities and Indigenous/Aboriginal persons. It is also notable that much of the SME literature, as well as this study, define gender as a dichotomous (women/female, men/male) attribute. Comparing women/female and men/males implicitly assumes within group homogeneity. Future research should use a more inclusive definition of gender. Research is also required to inform about the obstacles to government procurement among the population of SMEs that were unsuccessful in their bids. Practical implications The study provides benchmarks on, and directions to, enhance the participation of women-owned SMEs or enterprises in public procurement. Strategies to support women-owned small businesses that comply with United Nations Sustainable Development Goals are advanced. Social implications The study offers insights to reconcile economic efficiency and social (gender equity) policy goals in the context of public procurement. The “policy-practice divides” in public procurement and women’s enterprise policies are discussed. Originality/value The study is among the first to use a feminist lens to examine the associations between gender of SME ownership and public procurement, while controlling for other salient owner and firm attributes.

The classical Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) is based on an inverse relationship between the so-called Average Period of Production (APP) or ‘roundaboutness’ and the interest rate. According to Böhm-Bawerk (1884 [1891]), the APP is the weighted average time that a unit of labor is locked up in the production process1; moreover, there is a positive relationship between savings (the ‘subsistence fund’) and the APP: the higher the latter the higher the former, which implies an inverse relationship between interest rates and the APP. Thus, a lower interest rate will lead to a higher APP ceteris paribus. Hayek (2008) based his Hayekian triangles on Böhm-Bawerk’s work: a lower (higher) interest rate leads to a more (less) rounda- bout structure of production, increasing (decreasing) the APP. Including Mises’s (1921) business cycle theory into the analysis, whenever the interest rate is pushed lower than its ‘natural level’, either by the central bank or the banking system, there is an unsus- tainable extension of the APP that will generate an economic boom; the crisis will irremediably follow, as the APP will pull back towards its natural level. From this brief characterization of the ABCT, it is easy to notice the key role of the inverse relationship between interest rates and roundaboutness; without it, there is no connection from changes in interest rates and roundaboutness, and the ABCT falls apart. The reswitching of techniques is precisely a counterexample to that relationship, as it claims there are situations in which lower interest rates do not lead to more roundabout productive struc- tures. The organization of this paper is as follows: the next section describes the reswitching of techniques as stated by Samuelson (1966) and the implication for the classical ABCT, based on a phys- ical measure of roundaboutness; section 3 analyzes the alternative of applying corporate finance to the ABCT following Cachanosky and Lewin (2014). Section 4 is a financial analysis of Samuelson’s example, argues why modified duration should replace Böhm- Bawerk’s APP as a measure of roundaboutness, and shows why it does not represent a paradox to the ABCT when the financial approach is used. Sections 5 and 6 address the question from two additional perspectives: a neoclassical with fully flexible prices but fixed techniques and the Austrian related dynamic efficiency.

A prominent characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic is the marked geographic variation in COVID-19 prevalence. The objective of the current study is to assess the influence of population density and socio-economic measures (socio-economic ranking and the Gini Index) across cities on coronavirus infection rates. Israel provides an interesting case study based on the highly non-uniform distribution of urban populations, the existence of one of the most densely populated cities in the world and diversified populations. Moreover, COVID19 challenges the consensus regarding compact planning design. Consequently, it is important to analyze the relationship between COVID19 spread and population density. The outcomes of our study show that ceteris paribus projected probabilities to be infected from coronavirus rise with population density from 1.6 to 2.72% up to a maximum of 5.17-5.238% for a population density of 20,282-20,542 persons per square kilometer (sq. km.). Above this benchmark, the anticipated infection rate drops up to 4.06-4.50%. Projected infection rates of 4.06-4.50% are equal in cities, towns and regional councils (Local Authorities) with the maximal population density of 26,510 and 11,979-13,343 persons per sq. km. A possible interpretation is that while denser cities facilitate human interactions, they also enable and promote improved health infrastructure. This, in turn, contributes to medical literacy, namely, elevated awareness to the benefits associated with compliance with hygienic practices (washing hands), social distancing rules and wearing masks. Findings may support compact planning design principles, namely, development of dense, mixed use, walkable and transit accessible community design in compact and polycentric regions. Indeed, city planners should weigh the costs and benefits of many risk factors, including the COVID19 pandemic.

En este artículo se analiza la incidencia del consumo final e inversión bruta en el empleo formal de la economía nicaragüense (2009-2018), respaldado por la teoría keynesiana. Se utilizan datos oficiales del Banco Central de Nicaragua (BCN) y se realiza un análisis correlacional con modelización econométrica a través del método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO). La evolución de las variables muestra una tendencia creciente a lo largo del periodo, únicamente en 2018 que sufren un descenso debido a la crisis sociopolítica, a excepción de la inversión bruta, que tiene un comportamiento fluctuante y su mayor descenso fue en 2018. Las actividades económicas que demandaron mayor fuerza laboral fueron servicios comunales, sociales y personales y la industria manufacturera, y que a su vez fueron las actividades que fortalecieron el sector exportador. Tanto el consumo final como la inversión bruta tienen un efecto positivo en el empleo formal; se evidencia el efecto multiplicador del consumo público que permite la variación del consumo final siendo ésta la implementación de una política fiscal expansiva (ceteris paribus), lo que permitió encontrar que el consumo final está dando un mayor aporte que la inversión bruta y ambas dan lugar a la estimulación de la demanda agregada con el fin de aumentar la producción, permitiendo ofertar mayor número de empleos formales.

We identify a new channel of the monetary policy transmission that affects asset prices through the secured interbank market. Central bank’s open market operations, by changing the relative amount of securities and reserves, alter the amount of securities that can be used as collateral and, consequently, influence their prices. Ceteris paribus the magnitude of the effect depends on assets’ pledgeability properties (haircuts). We analyze the relation between yields of euro area government bonds, the haircuts applied to these assets and the relative amount of bonds and central banks reserves. The empirical evidence confirms that this channel is economically relevant.

This article discusses the problem of non-zero probabilities for non-tautologous universal generalizations in Rudolf Carnap’s inductive logic (1950, 1952) when the domain of discourse is infinite. A solution is provided for a generalization of the form “all Xs are Ys”, for example “all ravens all black”. The solution is based on assuming that a significant part of the domain consists of non-Xs. This assumption can often be justified as a kind of ceteris paribus principle.

This paper investigates the relationship between the social inclusion of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people, and technological innovation. It empirically establishes that LGBT inclusion helps foster human capital skills, thus strengthening national innovative capacity. Exploiting cross-country data, this research provides suggestive evidence that social tolerance towards homosexuality is positively correlated with the economic complexity index, a novel measure of cross-country differences in innovative capabilities. Individual-level analyses, based on data from the World Values Survey, reveal that surveyed respondents who self-report tolerance towards homosexual acts tend to have positive attitudes towards technological innovation, ceteris paribus. This lends credence to the international evidence. Further analyses indicate that the link between LGBT inclusion and innovation is partially mediated through the accumulation of human capital. The main findings suggest that the social exclusion of LGBT people, at least to some extent, impedes long-run economic development by hindering innovative activities.

This paper examines the effect of financial stability on the economic growth of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using the World Development Indicators Data. To select the appropriate model best fits for the data, the Hausman test was used to select Random Effect Estimator over Fixed Effect Estimator to assess the relationship between the variables. Panel data was collected on Sub-Saharan Africa countries from 2010 to 2019 to predict the effect of financial stability on economic growth. The paper revealed that financial stability accounted for 71.8% of the variation of a country’s economic growth for the period other things being equal. It recommends that financial regulators within Sub-Saharan African should provide prudential policies aim at attaining higher economic growth should target both monetary and fiscal policies as well market discipline.Keywords: Sub-Saharan African, economic growth, financial stability, panel data, Fixed effects estimatorJEL Classifications: E50, E58, F43, O47DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.11407

В работе проанализирован вклад неравенства возможностей в неравенство в здоровье населения России в возрасте от 25 до 74 лет. Эмпирической основой исследования являются национально репрезентативные данные РМЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ за 2018 г. В качестве индикатора здоровья использована самооценка состояния здоровья (пятибалльная шкала). Стартовые возможности индивида в работе охарактеризованы образованием родителей и местом рождения (страна, тип поселения). Вектор собственных усилий человека по сохранению здоровья включает уровень образования, отказ от курения и занятия физкультурой. Для анализа влияния стартовых возможностей на состояние здоровья индивида используется методика, предложенная в работе (Trannoy et al. 2010), которая позволяет учесть как прямой, так и посреднический (через влияние на усилия) эффекты. С помощью регрессионного анализа показано, что при прочих равных стартовые возможности оказывают значимое влияние на здоровье индивидов. В частности, образование родителей положительно отражается на самооценке здоровья. Рождение в другой стране, другом населенном пункте и рождение в городской местности, наоборот, снижают показатель самооценки здоровья. Данное наблюдение позволяет сделать вывод о наличии несправедливого неравенства в здоровье, т. е. неравенства, обусловленного факторами, независящими от собственных усилий человека. Количественная оценка неравенства возможностей в здоровье сделана с помощью непараметрического подхода (Checchi, Peragine 2010; Lazar 2013). По нашим расчетам вклад неравенства возможностей в неравенство в здоровье составляет 72-74% для населения в целом, будучи несколько выше для женщин (62-74 и 60-69% для мужчин и женщин соответственно) и для лиц старшей возрастной группы (59-62 и 67-75% для групп 25-44 и 45-74 года соответственно). Полученные оценки сопоставимы с результатами для других стран и свидетельствуют о значимости проблемы неравенства возможностей в здоровье в России.

A growing literature has found a link between performance-related pay (PRP) and poor health, but the causal direction of the relationship is not known. To address this gap, the current paper utilises a crossover experimental design to randomly allocate subjects into a work task paid either by performance or a fixed payment. Stress is measured through self-reporting and salivary cortisol. The study finds that PRP subjects had significantly higher cortisol levels and self-rated stress than those receiving fixed pay, ceteris paribus. By circumventing issues of self-report and self-selection, these results provide novel evidence for the detrimental effect PRP may have on health.

Under climate change, Malaysia's agricultural production showed decreasing in recent decades. This study tries to fill in the gaps to applying and extending the Cobb Douglas production function theory to examine the impact of climate change and economic factors on Malaysia's agricultural production. Using Engle-Granger (EG) test with 37 years of data from 1980 to 2016. The findings showed that the long-run estimated coefficients for rainfall, temperature, and interest rate were -0.338, -0.024, and -0.029, respectively. This indicates that each additional percent in rainfall, temperature, and interest rate will be affected the agricultural production, on average, to decrease by 0.338%, 0.024%, and 0.029%, respectively, holding others constant. Besides that, the long-run elasticity of real GDP per capita, employment, and Trend showed 0.509, 0.513, and 0.119, respectively. Increase 1% of real GDP per capita will lead to the agricultural production to increase about 0.509%, ceteris paribus. The elasticity of employment showed that each 10% increase in agricultural employment will increase the agricultural production on average 5.13%, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, the trend estimated coefficient showed that the agricultural production will have a constant growth rate which is 0.119% per year. All variables were statistically significant to explain the long-run agricultural production. The short-run rainfall, temperature, employment, and Trend were statistically significant to determine the short-run production growth. Therefore, advanced technology and the latest information on climate change are relevant to boost agricultural production growth. In addition, policymakers also suggested establishing lower interest rate loan facilities and no labor shortage in this industry.

Organizations routinely introduce hitherto‐unexplored interventions to improve their supply chains. Consider a principal (e.g., a firm) that implements a “seemingly helpful” intervention: For any fixed actions of the principal and the agents (e.g., consumers), the principal's payoff is higher in the presence of the intervention than in its absence. While one would expect such well‐intentioned interventions to benefit the principal, several papers within the operations management (OM) literature show that the principal's equilibrium payoff can be hurt, even ignoring the intervention's implementation cost. While this conclusion is often based on analyzing a single‐shot, simultaneous‐move game, repeated interactions can also serve as an appropriate environment in many cases. A fundamental question arises: Does this conclusion hold even under repeated interactions? We study this question using the framework of infinitely repeated games and the notion of a precommitment equilibrium from the literature on reputation in repeated games. We identify two key characteristics that determine whether a seemingly beneficial intervention helps, or can possibly hurt the firm: (i) nature of the intervention (ceteris paribus, does it induce agents to react in a manner favorable to the principal?), and (ii) extent of interaction (single shot at one extreme and infinitely repeated at the other). Interestingly, we demonstrate the following two possibilities using settings analyzed in the recent OM literature: seemingly beneficial interventions can (a) hurt the firm in a single‐shot analysis but benefit under repeated interactions, and (b) continue to hurt the firm under repeated interactions. We also obtain easy‐to‐interpret conditions under which the benefit of such interventions is guaranteed under repeated interactions.