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Due to advances in remote sensing of the Earth’s Ionosphere through Total Electron Content (TEC) estimates by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, it is possible to detect and characterize Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) in both post-processing and, to some extent, in near real-time (NRT). A reliable and precise TEC filtering technique must be adopted to characterize waves accurately. Specifically, TEC detrending is widely adopted to extract the amplitude and period of the detected ionospheric waves from the background ionospheric conditions. Therefore, this study aims to understand and compare how different TEC detrending techniques and their settings impact the ability to extract such parameters. We highlight that the novel Fast Iterative Filtering (FIF) and the Savitzky-Golay filter (SGOLAY) techniques are the most reliable overall compared with moving average (MA), multi-order numerical difference (DD), polynomial detrending (POLY) and Finite Impulse response (FIR) band-pass filter (BUTF). Moreover, the impact of general algorithm settings on the exracted TID period is investigated, such as the Ionospheric Piercing Point (IPP) height and elevation cut-off angle, showing that such parameters drastically impact the retrieved period, especially for slower TIDs. Finally, due to the growing interest in real-time (RT) detection and classification of TIDs, the study proposes techniques for accurately estimating the TID amplitude in an NRT scenario. Such NRT techniques are then compared with the widely used post-processing products, such as the calibrated vertical TEC (vTEC), showing a difference that is mostly lower than the typical noise level of GNSS receivers (0.05 TECu).

This work presents statistical models of the variability of plasma in the topside ionosphere based on observations made by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Swarm satellites. The models were developed in the “Swarm Variability of Ionospheric Plasma” (Swarm-VIP) project within the European Space Agency’s Swarm+4D-Ionosphere framework. The configuration of the Swarm satellites, their near-polar orbits and the data products developed, enable studies of the spatial variability of the ionosphere at multiple scale sizes. The statistical modelling technique of Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) was used to create models of both the electron density and measures of the variability of the plasma structures at horizontal spatial scales between 20 km and 100 km. Despite being developed using the Swarm data, the models provide predictions that are independent of these data. Separate models were created for low, middle, auroral and polar latitudes. The models make predictions based on heliogeophysical variables, which act as proxies for the solar and geomagnetic processes. The first and most significant term in the majority of the models was a proxy for solar activity. The most common second term varied with the latitudinal region. This was the Solar Zenith Angle (SZA) in the polar region, a measure of latitude in the auroral region, solar time in the mid-latitude region and a measure of latitude in the equatorial region. Other, less significant terms in the models covered a range of proxies for the solar wind, geomagnetic activity and location. In this paper, the formulation, optimisation and evaluation of these models are discussed. The models show very little bias, with a mean error of zero to two decimal places in 14 out of 20 cases. The models capture some, but not all, of the trends present in the data, with Pearson correlation coefficients of up to 0.75 between the observations and the model predictions. The models also capture some, but not all, of the variability of the ionospheric plasma, as indicated by the precision, which ranged between 0.20 and 0.83. The addition of the thermospheric density as an explanatory variable in the models improved the precision in the polar and auroral regions. It is suggested that, if the thermosphere could be observed at a higher spatial resolution, then even more of the variability of the plasma structures could be captured by statistical models. The formulation and optimisation of the models are presented in this paper. The capability of the model in reproducing the expected climatological features of the topside ionosphere, in supporting GNSS-based ionospheric observations and the performance of the model against the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), are provided in a companion paper (Spogli L et al. 2024. J Space Weather Space Clim https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024003).

Statistical models of the variability of plasma in the topside ionosphere based on the Swarm data have been developed in the “Swarm Variability of Ionospheric Plasma” (Swarm-VIP) project within the European Space Agency’s Swarm+4D-Ionosphere framework. The models can predict the electron density, its gradients for three horizontal spatial scales – 20, 50 and 100 km – along the North-South direction and the level of the density fluctuations. Despite being developed by leveraging on Swarm data, the models provide predictions that are independent of these data, having a global coverage, fed by various parameters and proxies of the helio-geophysical conditions. Those features make the Swarm-VIP models useful for various purposes, which include the possible support for already available ionospheric models and proxy of the effect of ionospheric irregularities of the medium scales that affect the signals emitted by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The formulation, optimisation and validation of the Swarm-VIP models are reported in Paper 1 (Wood et al. 2024. J Space Weather Space Clim. in press). This paper describes the performance assessment of the models, by addressing their capability to reproduce the known climatological variability of the modelled quantities, and the ionospheric weather as depicted by ground-based GNSS, as a proxy for the ionospheric effect on GNSS signals. Additionally, we demonstrate that, under certain conditions, the model can better reproduce the ionospheric variability than a physics-based model, namely the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM).

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga volcano provides a unique opportunity to study the reaction of the ionosphere to large explosive events. In particular, this event allows us to study the global propagation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) using various instruments. We focus on detecting the ionospheric disturbances caused by this eruption over Europe, where dense networks of both ionosondes and GNSS receivers are available. This event took place on the day of a geomagnetic storm. We show how data from different instruments and observatories can be combined to distinguish the TIDs produced by the eruption from those caused by concurrent geomagnetic activity. The Lamb wavefront was detected as the strongest disturbance in the ionosphere, travelling between 300 and 340 m/s, consistent with the disturbances in the lower atmosphere. By comparing observations obtained from multiple types of instruments, we also show that TIDs produced by various mechanisms are present simultaneously, with different types of waves affecting different physical quantities. This illustrates the importance of analysing data from multiple independent instruments in order to obtain a full picture of an event like this one, as relying on only a single data source might result in some effects going unobserved.

Abstract: We propose a new parameter for quality evaluation of ionogram traces reconstructed by Autoscala. This parameter efficiently assesses the reliability of the automatic interpretation of ionospheric characteristics. Based on an extensive analysis of the data, the parameter values are statistically associated with the accuracy of f oF2 data automatically scaled by Autoscala. Therefore, Autoscala will be improved by providing f oF2 accuracy as supplementary output information. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article explored results from a study of 113 incarcerated male youths who were age 12 to 15 at the time of their indexed offense. Using a widely used, normed measure of psychosocial functioning, the study examined the relationship between preexisting risk factors and/or institutional risk factors and adjustment in custody. Preexisting risk or vulnerability significantly predicted adjustment to custody, as did several risk factors within facilities (worry about victimization, perceiving victimization as likely, and experiencing conflicts with inmates as difficult). Risk factors associated with institutional life appeared to contribute to a young persons adjustment beyond the risk factors a young person may walk into an institution with. One commonly used measure of institutional functioning, number of custodial rule infractions, did not appear to be a valid indicator of how a youth felt or adjusted to a facility. Limitations and implications of the findings are discussed.

Canada has no standards, procedural guidelines, or protocols for best practices in the care of youths in custody. This paper argues that clear, enforceable standards are important in defining a benchmark of acceptable practice. It argues that without standards, issues may arise which can create further difficulty for youths who are under the care of the state. It suggests that the current legal framework for standards is insufficient in its enforceability and its clarity. The new Youth Criminal Justice Act (YCJA) provides the Canadian government with a timely and much-needed opportunity to establish standards of care for youths in custody. Indeed, the YCJA contains specific, comprehensive, and relevant provisions that can be seen as laying a firm foundation for standards of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the amplitude scintillation on L-band signals over San Miguel de Tucumán (Argentina), focusing on the multi-scale variability and speculating on the possible relationship between forcing factors from the geospace and the ionospheric response. The site is nominally located below the expected position of the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA). For this scope, we concentrate on the period 1–31 March 2011, during which one minor and one moderate storm characterize the first half of the month, while generally quiet conditions of the geospace stand for the second half. By leveraging on the Adaptive Local Iterative Filtering (ALIF) signal decomposition technique, we investigate the multi-scale properties of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) amplitude scintillation and helio-geophysical parameters, looking for possible cause-effect mechanisms relating the former to the latter. Namely, we identify resonant modes in the Akasofu (ε) parameter as likely related to the frequency components in the time evolution found for the amplitude scintillation index, hence modulating the scintillation itself.

The effect of the Earth’s ionosphere represents the single largest contribution to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) error budget and abnormal ionospheric conditions can impose serious degradation on GNSS system functionality, including integrity, accuracy and availability. With the growing reliance on GNSS for many modern life applications, actionable ionospheric forecasts can contribute to the understanding and mitigation of the impact of the ionosphere on our technology based society. In this context, the Ionosphere Prediction Service (IPS) project was set up to design and develop a prototype platform to translate the forecast of the ionospheric effects into a service customized for specific GNSS user communities. To achieve this overarching aim, four different product groups dealing with solar activity, ionospheric activity, GNSS receiver performance and service performance have been developed and integrated into a service chain, which is made available through a web based platform. This paper provides an overview of the IPS project describing its overall architecture, products and web based platform.

The variations of the hourly observations of the critical frequency foF2, recorded at the Ionospheric Observatory of Rome by the AIS-INGV ionosonde (geographic coordinates 41.82° N, 12.51° E; geomagnetic coordinates 41.69° N, 93.97° E) during the low activity periods at the turn of solar cycles 21–22, 22–23 and 23–24, are investigated. Deviations of foF2 greater than ± 15% with respect to a background level, and with a minimum duration of 3 h, are here considered anomalous. The dependence of these foF2 anomalies on geomagnetic activity has been accurately investigated. Particular attention has been paid to the last deep solar minimum 2007–2009, in comparison with the previous solar cycle minima. The lack of day-time anomalous negative variations in the critical frequency of the F2 layer, is one of the main findings of this work. Moreover, the analysis of the observed foF2 anomalies confirms the existence of two types of positive F2 layer disturbances, characterised by different morphologies and, different underlying physical processes. A detailed analysis of four specific cases allows the definition of possible scenarios for the explanation of the mechanisms behind the generation of the foF2 anomalies.