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1. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author: Schumacher, AE, Kyu, HH, Antony, CM, Aravkin, AY, Azhar, GS, Bisignano, C, Burkart, K, Cercy, KM, Chung, E, Coberly, K, Comfort, H, Cousin, E, Culbreth, GT, Cunningham, M, Weaver, ND, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Deitesfeld, L, Dirac, MA, Estep, K, Feigin, VL, Flaxman, AD, Flor, LS, Force, LM, Fuller, JE, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Ikuta, KS, Jones, DP, Kassebaum, NJ, Kassel, MB, Keller, C, Kinzel, KE, Krohn, KJ, Lozano, R, May, EA, McKowen, ALW, McLaughlin, SA, Mehlman, ML, Mestrovic, T, Mokdad, AH, Mosser, JF, Mougin, V, Naghavi, M, Nesbit, OD, Novotney, A, Ozten, Y, Pease, SA, Pigott, DM, Reiner, RC, Robinson-Oden, HE, Shaw, DH, Slepak, ELN, Sorensen, RJD, Verghese, NA, Vollset, SE, Vongpradith, A, Vos, T, Wang, D, Watson, S, Weaver, MR, Wells, KM, Wilson, S, Wool, EE, Zheng, P, Lim, SS, Murray, CJL, Boyko, EJ, Chahine, Y, Kalani, R, Krishnamoorthy, V, Khalil, IA, Minja, NW, Morrison, SD, Nafukho, FM, Olivas-Martinez, A, Orellana, ER, Tram, KH, Aali, A, Rahnavard, N, Ahmadzade, AM, Mohammad-Pour, S, Morovatdar, N, Pourali, G, Zafari, N, Abbafati, C, Cattaruzza, MS, Abbas, J, Phillips, MR, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Emamverdi, M, Friedman, J, Abbasi, MA, Daneshvar, S, Dashti, M, Ghasemzadeh, A, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, M, Doshmangir, L, Ghafourifard, M, Lotfi, M, Hosseini, MS, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Sharma, Saurab ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9817-5372, Xu, Luna ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4787-6547, Addo, Isaac, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Okeke, Sylvester ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9211-1813, Aboagye, Richard ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3498-2909, Huda, Md Nazmul ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7048-1266, Cullen, Patricia ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4652-0936, Sitas, Freddy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9679-1481, Si, Yafei ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9334-8230, Dai-Keller, Zhaoli ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-5692, Schumacher, AE, Kyu, HH, Antony, CM, Aravkin, AY, Azhar, GS, Bisignano, C, Burkart, K, Cercy, KM, Chung, E, Coberly, K, Comfort, H, Cousin, E, Culbreth, GT, Cunningham, M, Weaver, ND, Degenhardt, L ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218, Deitesfeld, L, Dirac, MA, Estep, K, Feigin, VL, Flaxman, AD, Flor, LS, Force, LM, Fuller, JE, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Ikuta, KS, Jones, DP, Kassebaum, NJ, Kassel, MB, Keller, C, Kinzel, KE, Krohn, KJ, Lozano, R, May, EA, McKowen, ALW, McLaughlin, SA, Mehlman, ML, Mestrovic, T, Mokdad, AH, Mosser, JF, Mougin, V, Naghavi, M, Nesbit, OD, Novotney, A, Ozten, Y, Pease, SA, Pigott, DM, Reiner, RC, Robinson-Oden, HE, Shaw, DH, Slepak, ELN, Sorensen, RJD, Verghese, NA, Vollset, SE, Vongpradith, A, Vos, T, Wang, D, Watson, S, Weaver, MR, Wells, KM, Wilson, S, Wool, EE, Zheng, P, Lim, SS, Murray, CJL, Boyko, EJ, Chahine, Y, Kalani, R, Krishnamoorthy, V, Khalil, IA, Minja, NW, Morrison, SD, Nafukho, FM, Olivas-Martinez, A, Orellana, ER, Tram, KH, Aali, A, Rahnavard, N, Ahmadzade, AM, Mohammad-Pour, S, Morovatdar, N, Pourali, G, Zafari, N, Abbafati, C, Cattaruzza, MS, Abbas, J, Phillips, MR, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Emamverdi, M, Friedman, J, Abbasi, MA, Daneshvar, S, Dashti, M, Ghasemzadeh, A, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, M, Doshmangir, L, Ghafourifard, M, Lotfi, M, Hosseini, MS, Mitchell, Philip ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7954-5235, Sharma, Saurab ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9817-5372, Xu, Luna ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4787-6547, Addo, Isaac, Biswas, Raaj Kishore ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-6323, Okeke, Sylvester ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9211-1813, Aboagye, Richard ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3498-2909, Huda, Md Nazmul ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7048-1266, Cullen, Patricia ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4652-0936, Sitas, Freddy ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9679-1481, Si, Yafei ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9334-8230, and Dai-Keller, Zhaoli ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-5692
Abstract: Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, ant
Published: 2024

2. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author: Brauer, M, Roth, GA, Aravkin, AY, Zheng, P, Abate, KH, Abate, YH, Abbafati, C, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Abbasi, MA, Abbasian, M, Abbasifard, M, Moradi, Y, Bensenor, IM, Benzian, H, Beran, A, Abouzid, M, Berezvai, Z, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, RS, Bettencourt, PJG, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhala, N, Moraga, P, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhaskar, S, Aboye, GB, Bhat, AN, Bhat, V, Bhatti, GK, Bhatti, JS, Bhatti, MS, Morawska, L, Bhatti, R, Bhuiyan, MA, Bhutta, ZA, Bikbov, B, Bishai, JD, Abreu, LG, Bisignano, C, Biswas, A, Biswas, B, Biswas, RK, Moreira, RS, Bjørge, T, Boachie, MK, Boakye, H, Bockarie, MJ, Bodolica, V, Bodunrin, AO, Abualruz, H, Bogale, EK, Bolla, SR, Boloor, A, Morovatdar, N, Bonakdar Hashemi, M, Boppana, SH, Bora Basara, B, Borhany, H, Botero Carvajal, A, Bouaoud, S, Boufous, S, Abubakar, B, Bourne, R, Boxe, C, Morrison, SD, Braithwaite, D, Brant, LC, Brar, A, Breitborde, NJK, Breitner, S, Brenner, H, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Brown, CS, Morze, J, Browne, AJ, Brunoni, AR, Bryazka, D, Bulamu, NB, Bulto, LN, Buonsenso, D, Burkart, K, Burns, RA, Busse, R, Abukhadijah, HJJ, Mosaddeghi Heris, R, Bustanji, Y, Butt, NS, Butt, ZA, Caetano dos Santos, FL, Cagney, J, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Calina, D, Cámera, LA, Campos, LA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Mossialos, E, Aburuz, S, Cao, C, Cao, F, Cao, Y, Capodici, A, Cárdenas, R, Carr, S, Carreras, G, Carrero, JJ, Carugno, A, Motappa, R, Carvalho, F, Abu-Zaid, A, Carvalho, M, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, Catalá-López, F, Catapano, AL, Cattaruzza, MS, Caye, A, Alemayohu, MA, Ali, BA, Cederroth, CR, Cegolon, L, Adane, MM, Cenderadewi, M, Cercy, KM, Cerin, E, Chadwick, J, Chakraborty, C, Chakraborty, PA, Chakraborty, S, Mougin, V, Chan, JSK, Chan, RNC, Chandan, JS, Addo, IY, Chandika, RM, Chaturvedi, P, Chen, A-T, Chen, CS, Chen, H, Chen, MX, Mousavi, P, Chen, M, Chen, S, Cheng, C-Y, Cheng, ETW, Addolorato, G, Cherbuin, N, Chi, G, Chichagi, F, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chimoriya, R, Msherghi, A, Ching, PR, Chirinos-Caceres, JL, Chitheer, A, Cho, WCS, Chong, B, Adedoyin, RA, Chopra, H, Chowdhury, R, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Mubarik, S, Chukwu, IS, Chung, E, Chung, S-C, Chutiyami, M, Cioffi, I, Cogen, RM, Adekanmbi, V, Cohen, AJ, Columbus, A, Conde, J, Muccioli, L, Corlateanu, A, Cortese, S, Cortesi, PA, Costa, VM, Costanzo, S, Criqui, MH, Cruz, JA, Aden, B, Cruz-Martins, N, Culbreth, GT, Mueller, UO, da Silva, AG, Dadras, O, Dai, X, Dai, Z, Daikwo, PU, Dalli, LL, Damiani, G, D'Amico, E, Adetunji, JB, D'Anna, L, Mulita, F, Darwesh, AM, Das, JK, Das, S, Dash, NR, Dashti, M, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Davis Weaver, N, Davitoiu, DV, De la Hoz, FP, Adeyeoluwa, TE, Mullany, EC, de la Torre-Luque, A, De Leo, D, Debopadhaya, S, Degenhardt, L, Del Bo', C, Delgado-Enciso, I, Delgado-Saborit, JM, Demoze, CK, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Dervenis, N, Munjal, K, Adha, R, Dervišević, E, Desai, HD, Desai, R, Devanbu, VGC, Dewan, SMR, Dhali, A, Dhama, K, Dhane, AS, Dhimal, ML, Marx, W, Murillo-Zamora, E, Dhimal, M, Adibi, A, Dhingra, S, Dhulipala, VR, Dhungana, RR, Dias da Silva, D, Diaz, D, Diaz, LA, Diaz, MJ, Dima, A, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Ding, DD, Dinu, M, Adnani, QES, Djalalinia, S, Do, TC, Do, THP, do Prado, CB, Dodangeh, M, Dohare, S, Dokova, KG, Ali, I, Dong, W, Dongarwar, D, D'Oria, M, Adzigbli, LA, Dorostkar, F, Dorsey, ER, Doshi, R, Doshmangir, L, Dowou, RK, Driscoll, TR, Murlimanju, BV, Dsouza, AC, Dsouza, HL, Dumith, SC, Duncan, BB, Afolabi, AA, Duraes, AR, Duraisamy, S, Dushpanova, A, Dzianach, PA, Dziedzic, AM, Musina, A-M, Ebrahimi, A, Echieh, CP, Ed-Dra, A, Edinur, HA, Edvardsson, D, Afolabi, RF, Edvardsson, K, Efendi, F, Eftekharimehrabad, A, Eini, E, Mustafa, G, Ekholuenetale, M, Ekundayo, TC, El Arab, RA, El Sayed Zaki, M, El-Dahiyat, F, Elemam, NM, Afshin, A, Elgar, FJ, ElGohary, GMT, Elhabashy, HR, Muthu, S, Elhadi, M, Elmehrath, AO, Elmeligy, OAA, Elshaer, M, Elsohaby, I, Emeto, TI, Esfandiari, N, Afyouni, S, Eshrati, B, Eslami, M, Muthupandian, S, Esmaeili, SV, Estep, K, Etaee, F, Fabin, N, Fagbamigbe, AF, Fagbule, OF, Fahimi, S, Falzone, L, Afzal, MS, Fareed, M, Muthusamy, R, Farinha, CSES, Faris, MEM, Faris, PS, Faro, A, Fasina, FO, Fatehizadeh, A, Fauk, NK, Fazylov, T, Feigin, VL, Afzal, S, Muzaffar, M, Feng, X, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Feroze, AH, Ferrara, P, Ferrari, AJ, Ferreira, N, Fetensa, G, Feyisa, BR, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Maryam, S, Myung, W, Agampodi, SB, Fitriana, I, Flavel, J, Flohr, C, Flood, D, Flor, LS, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Force, LM, Fortuna, D, Nafei, A, Foschi, M, Agbozo, F, Franklin, RC, Freitas, A, Friedman, SD, Fux, B, G, S, Gaal, PA, Gaihre, S, Gajdács, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Galali, Y, Gallus, S, Aghamiri, S, Gandhi, AP, Ganesan, B, Ganiyani, MA, Garcia, V, Gardner, WM, Garg, RK, Gautam, RK, Ali, L, Gebi, TG, Gebregergis, MW, Gebrehiwot, M, Agodi, A, Gebremariam, TBB, Gebremeskel, TG, Gerema, U, Getacher, L, Getahun, GKA, Getie, M, Nagaraju, SP, Ghadirian, F, Ghafarian, S, Ghaffari Jolfayi, A, Ghailan, KY, Agrawal, A, Ghajar, A, Ghasemi, M, Ghasempour Dabaghi, G, Ghasemzadeh, A, Ghassemi, F, Nagel, G, Ghazy, RM, Gholami, A, Gholamrezanezhad, A, Gholizadeh, N, Ghorbani, M, Agyemang-Duah, W, Gil, AU, Gil, GF, Gilbertson, NM, Gill, PS, Naghavi, M, Gill, TK, Gindaba, EZ, Girmay, A, Glasbey, JC, Gnedovskaya, EV, Göbölös, L, Ahinkorah, BO, Godinho, MA, Goel, A, Golechha, M, Naghavi, P, Goleij, P, Golinelli, D, Gomes, NGM, Gopalani, SV, Gorini, G, Goudarzi, H, Goulart, AC, Ahmad, A, Gouravani, M, Goyal, A, Naik, GR, Graham, SM, Grivna, M, Grosso, G, Guan, S-Y, Guarducci, G, Gubari, MIM, Guha, A, Guicciardi, S, Ahmad, D, Gulati, S, Naik, G, Gulisashvili, D, Gunawardane, DA, Guo, C, Gupta, AK, Gupta, B, Gupta, M, Gupta, R, Gupta, RD, Ahmad, F, Mathangasinghe, Y, Nainu, F, Gupta, S, Gupta, VB, Gupta, VK, Habibzadeh, F, Habibzadeh, P, Hadaro, TS, Hadian, Z, Haep, N, Haghi-Aminjan, H, Nair, TS, Ahmad, N, Haghmorad, D, Hagins, H, Haile, D, Hailu, A, Hajj Ali, A, Halboub, ES, Halimi, A, Hall, BJ, Haller, S, Najdaghi, S, Halwani, R, Ahmad, S, Hamadeh, RR, Hamdy, NM, Hameed, S, Hamidi, S, Hammoud, A, Hanif, A, Hanifi, N, Haq, ZA, Nakhostin Ansari, N, Haque, MR, Harapan, H, Ahmad, T, Hargono, A, Haro, JM, Hasaballah, AI, Hasan, I, Hasan, MJ, Hasan, SMM, Hasani, H, Ali, MU, Hasanian, M, Hashmeh, N, Hasnain, MS, Ahmed, A, Hassan, A, Hassan, I, Hassan Zadeh Tabatabaei, MS, Hassani, S, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Nanavaty, DP, Haubold, J, Havmoeller, RJ, Hay, SI, Hebert, JJ, Hegazi, OE, Hegena, TY, Heidari, G, Heidari, M, Helfer, B, Nangia, V, Hemmati, M, Henson, CA, Herbert, ME, Herteliu, C, Heuer, A, Hezam, K, Hinneh, TK, Hiraike, Y, Hoan, NQ, Narasimha Swamy, S, Holla, R, Hon, J, Hoque, ME, Horita, N, Hossain, S, Hosseini, SE, Ahmed, LA, Hosseinzadeh, H, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Narimani Davani, D, Hostiuc, S, Hoven, H, Hsairi, M, Hsu, JM, Hu, C, Huang, J, Huda, MN, Ahmed, MB, Hulland, EN, Hultström, M, Nascimento, BR, Hushmandi, K, Hussain, J, Hussein, NR, Huynh, CK, Huynh, H-H, Ibitoye, SE, Idowu, OO, Ihler, AL, Ahmed, S, Ikeda, N, Mathioudakis, AG, Nascimento, GG, Ikuta, KS, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Imam, MT, Immurana, M, Inbaraj, LR, Irham, LM, Isa, MA, Ahmed, SA, Nashwan, AJ, Islam, MR, Ismail, F, Ismail, NE, Iso, H, Isola, G, Iwagami, M, Iwu, CCD, Iwu-Jaja, CJ, J, V, Jaafari, J, Natto, ZS, Ajami, M, Jacob, L, Jacobsen, KH, Jadidi-Niaragh, F, Jahankhani, K, Jahanmehr, N, Jahrami, H, Jain, A, Jain, N, Jairoun, AA, Nauman, J, Jaiswal, A, Akalu, GT, Jakovljevic, M, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh, R, Jamora, RDG, Jatau, AI, Javadov, S, Javaheri, T, Jayaram, S, Jeganathan, J, Navaratna, SNK, Jeswani, BM, Jiang, H, Akara, EM, Johnson, CO, Jokar, M, Jomehzadeh, N, Jonas, JB, Joo, T, Joseph, A, Joseph, N, Ali, R, Joshi, V, Joshua, CE, Jozwiak, JJ, Akbarialiabad, H, Jürisson, M, Kaambwa, B, Kabir, A, Kabir, Z, Kadashetti, V, Kahn, EM, Naveed, M, Kalani, R, Kaliyadan, F, Kalra, S, Kamath, R, Akhlaghi, S, Kanagasabai, T, Kanchan, T, Kandel, H, Kanmiki, EW, Kanmodi, KK, Nayak, BP, Kansal, SK, Kapner, DJ, Kapoor, N, Karagiannidis, E, Karajizadeh, M, Akinosoglou, K, Karakasis, P, Karanth, SD, Karaye, IM, Karch, A, Nayak, VC, Karim, A, Karimi, H, Karmakar, S, Kashoo, FZ, Kasraei, H, Kassahun, WD, Akinyemiju, T, Kassebaum, NJ, Kassel, MB, Katikireddi, SV, Ndejjo, R, Kauppila, JH, Kawakami, N, Kaydi, N, Kayode, GA, Kazemi, F, Keiyoro, PN, Kemmer, L, Akkaif, MA, Kempen, JH, Kerr, JA, Matozinhos, FP, Nduaguba, SO, Kesse-Guyot, E, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khajuria, H, Khalaji, A, Khalil, M, Khalilian, A, Khamesipour, F, Akkala, S, Khan, A, Negash, H, Khan, MN, Khan, M, Khan, MJ, Khan, MAB, Khanmohammadi, S, Khatab, K, Khatatbeh, H, Khatatbeh, MM, Khatib, MN, Akombi-Inyang, B, Negoi, I, Khavandegar, A, Khayat Kashani, HR, Khidri, FF, Khodadoust, E, Khormali, M, Khorrami, Z, Khosla, AA, Khosrowjerdi, M, Khreis, H, Khusun, H, Negoi, RI, Al Awaidy, S, Kifle, ZD, Kim, K, Kim, MS, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Knibbs, LD, Knudsen, AKS, Nejadghaderi, SA, Koh, DSQ, Al Hasan, SM, Kolahi, A-A, Kompani, F, Kong, J, Koren, G, Korja, M, Korshunov, VA, Korzh, O, Kosen, S, Nejjari, C, Kothari, N, Koul, PA, Alahdab, F, Koulmane Laxminarayana, SL, Krishan, K, Krishnamoorthy, V, Krishnamoorthy, Y, Krishnan, B, Krohn, KJ, Kuate Defo, B, Ali, SSS, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kuddus, MA, Kuddus, M, AL-Ahdal, TMA, Kugbey, N, Kuitunen, I, Kulimbet, M, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, A, Kumar, N, Nematollahi, MH, Kumar, V, Kundu, S, Kurmi, OP, Kusnali, A, Alalalmeh, SO, Kusuma, D, Kutluk, T, La Vecchia, C, Ladan, MA, Laflamme, L, Nepal, S, Lahariya, C, Lai, DTC, Lal, DK, Lallukka, T, Lám, J, Alalwan, TA, Lan, Q, Lan, T, Landires, I, Lanfranchi, F, Neupane, S, Langguth, B, Lansingh, VC, Laplante-Lévesque, A, Larijani, B, Larsson, AO, Lasrado, S, Al-Aly, Z, Lauriola, P, Le, H-H, Le, LKD, Mattumpuram, J, Ng, M, Le, NHH, Le, TTT, Leasher, JL, Ledda, C, Lee, M, Lee, PH, Lee, SW, Alam, K, Lee, SWH, Lee, YH, Nguefack-Tsague, G, LeGrand, KE, 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GS, Azizi, H, Abegaz, TM, Azzam, AY, Backhaus, IL, Mondello, S, Badar, M, Badiye, AD, Bagga, A, Baghdadi, S, Bagheri, N, Bagherieh, S, Bahrami Taghanaki, P, Bai, R, Abeldaño Zuñiga, RA, Baig, AA, Moni, MA, Baker, JL, Bakkannavar, SM, Balasubramanian, M, Baltatu, OC, Bam, K, Bandyopadhyay, S, Banik, B, Banik, PC, Banke-Thomas, A, Abiodun, O, Moodi Ghalibaf, A, Bansal, H, Barchitta, M, Bardhan, M, Bardideh, E, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barone-Adesi, F, Barqawi, HJ, Barrero, LH, Barrow, A, Moore, CE, Abiso, TL, Barteit, S, Basharat, Z, Basiru, A, Basso, JD, Bastan, M-M, Basu, S, Batchu, S, Batra, K, Batra, R, Moradi, M, Baune, BT, Aboagye, RG, Bayati, M, Bayileyegn, NS, Beaney, T, Behnoush, AH, Beiranvand, M, Béjot, Y, Bekele, A, Belgaumi, UI, Bell, AW, Bell, ML, Abolhassani, H, Bello, MB, Bello, OO, Belo, L, Beloukas, A, Bendak, S, Bennett, DA, and Bennitt, FB
Published: 2024

3. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author: Naghavi, M, Ong, KL, Aali, A, Ababneh, HS, Abate, YH, Abbafati, C, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Abbasian, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd ElHafeez, S, Abdelmasseh, M, Abd-Elsalam, S, Abdelwahab, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahifar, M-A, Abdoun, M, Abdulah, DM, Abdullahi, A, Abebe, M, Abebe, SS, Abedi, A, Abegaz, KH, Abhilash, ES, Abidi, H, Abiodun, O, Aboagye, RG, Abolhassani, H, Abolmaali, M, Abouzid, M, Aboye, GB, Abreu, LG, Abrha, WA, Abtahi, D, Abu Rumeileh, S, Abualruz, H, Abubakar, B, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Aburuz, S, Abu-Zaid, A, Accrombessi, MMK, Adal, TG, Adamu, AA, Addo, IY, Addolorato, G, Adebiyi, AO, Adekanmbi, V, Adepoju, AV, Adetunji, CO, Adetunji, JB, Adeyeoluwa, TE, Adeyinka, DA, Adeyomoye, OI, Admass, BAA, Adnani, QES, Adra, S, Afolabi, AA, Afzal, MS, Afzal, S, Agampodi, SB, Agasthi, P, Aggarwal, M, Aghamiri, S, Agide, FD, Agodi, A, Agrawal, A, Agyemang-Duah, W, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, A, Ahmad, D, Ahmad, F, Ahmad, MM, Ahmad, S, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadzade, AM, Ahmed, A, Ahmed, H, Ahmed, LA, Ahmed, MS, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, SA, Ajami, M, Aji, B, Akara, EM, Akbarialiabad, H, Akinosoglou, K, Akinyemiju, T, Akkaif, MA, Akyirem, S, Al Hamad, H, Al Hasan, SM, Alahdab, F, Alalalmeh, SO, Alalwan, TA, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, M, Alam, N, Al-amer, RM, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Al-Azzam, S, Albakri, A, Albashtawy, M, AlBataineh, MT, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Aldawsari, KA, Aldhaleei, WA, Aldridge, RW, Alema, HB, Alemayohu, MA, Alemi, S, Alemu, YM, Al-Gheethi, AAS, Alhabib, KF, Alhalaiqa, FAN, Al-Hanawi, MK, Ali, A, Ali, L, Ali, MU, Ali, R, Ali, S, Ali, SSS, Alicandro, G, Alif, SM, Alikhani, R, Alimohamadi, Y, Aliyi, AA, Aljasir, MAM, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Al-Marwani, S, Al-Maweri, SAA, Almazan, JU, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Almidani, L, Almidani, O, Alomari, MA, Al-Omari, B, Alonso, J, Alqahtani, JS, Alqalyoobi, S, Alqutaibi, AY, Al-Sabah, SK, Altaany, Z, Altaf, A, Al-Tawfiq, JA, Altirkawi, KA, Aluh, DO, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alwafi, H, Al-Worafi, YM, Aly, H, Aly, S, Alzoubi, KH, Amani, R, Amare, AT, Amegbor, PM, Ameyaw, EK, Amin, TT, Amindarolzarbi, A, Amiri, S, Amirzade-Iranaq, MH, Amu, H, Amugsi, DA, Amusa, GA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, DB, Andrade, PP, Andrei, CL, Andrei, T, Angus, C, Anil, A, Anil, S, Anoushiravani, A, Ansari, H, Ansariadi, A, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antony, CM, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anvari, S, Anwar, S, Anwar, SL, Anwer, R, Anyasodor, AE, Aqeel, M, Arab, JP, Arabloo, J, Arafat, M, Aravkin, AY, Areda, D, Aremu, A, Aremu, O, Ariffin, H, Arkew, M, Armocida, B, Arndt, MB, Ärnlöv, J, Arooj, M, Artamonov, AA, Arulappan, J, Aruleba, RT, Arumugam, A, Asaad, M, Asadi-Lari, M, Asgedom, AA, Asghariahmadabad, M, Asghari-Jafarabadi, M, Ashraf, M, Aslani, A, Astell-Burt, T, Athar, M, Athari, SS, Atinafu, BTT, Atlaw, HW, Atorkey, P, Atout, MMW, Atreya, A, Aujayeb, A, Ausloos, M, Avan, A, Awedew, AF, Aweke, AM, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayatollahi, H, Ayuso-Mateos, JL, Ayyoubzadeh, SM, Azadnajafabad, S, Azevedo, RMS, Azzam, AY, B, DB, Babu, AS, Badar, M, Badiye, AD, Baghdadi, S, Bagheri, N, Bagherieh, S, Bah, S, Bahadorikhalili, S, Bahmanziari, N, Bai, R, Baig, AA, Baker, JL, Bako, AT, Bakshi, RK, Balakrishnan, S, Balasubramanian, M, Baltatu, OC, Bam, K, Banach, M, Bandyopadhyay, S, Banik, PC, Bansal, H, Bansal, K, Barbic, F, Barchitta, M, Bardhan, M, Bardideh, E, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barone-Adesi, F, Barqawi, HJ, Barrero, LH, Barrow, A, Barteit, S, Barua, L, Basharat, Z, Bashiri, A, Basiru, A, Baskaran, P, Basnyat, B, Bassat, Q, Basso, JD, Basting, AVL, Basu, S, Batra, K, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bayileyegn, NS, Beaney, T, Bedi, N, Beghi, M, Behboudi, E, Behera, P, Behnoush, AH, Behzadifar, M, Beiranvand, M, Bejarano Ramirez, DF, Béjot, Y, Belay, SA, Belete, CM, Bell, ML, Bello, MB, Bello, OO, Belo, L, Beloukas, A, Bender, RG, Bensenor, IM, Beran, A, Berezvai, Z, Berhie, AY, Berice, BN, Bernstein, RS, Bertolacci, GJ, Bettencourt, PJG, Beyene, KA, Bhagat, DS, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhandari, D, Bhangdia, K, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhardwaj, PV, Bhargava, A, Bhaskar, S, Bhat, V, Bhatti, GK, Bhatti, JS, Bhatti, MS, Bhatti, R, Bhutta, ZA, Bikbov, B, Bishai, JD, Bisignano, C, Bisulli, F, Biswas, A, Biswas, B, Bitaraf, S, Bitew, BD, Bitra, VR, Bjørge, T, Boachie, MK, Boampong, MS, Bobirca, AV, Bodolica, V, Bodunrin, AO, Bogale, EK, Bogale, KA, Bohlouli, S, Bolarinwa, OA, Boloor, A, Bonakdar Hashemi, M, Bonny, A, Bora, K, Bora Basara, B, Borhany, H, Borzutzky, A, Bouaoud, S, Boustany, A, Boxe, C, Boyko, EJ, Brady, OJ, Braithwaite, D, Brant, LC, Brauer, M, Brazinova, A, Brazo-Sayavera, J, Breitborde, NJK, Breitner, S, Brenner, H, Briko, AN, Briko, NI, Britton, G, Brown, J, Brugha, T, Bulamu, NB, Bulto, LN, Buonsenso, D, Burns, RA, Busse, R, Bustanji, Y, Butt, NS, Butt, ZA, Caetano dos Santos, FL, Calina, D, Cámera, LA, Campos, LA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Cao, C, Cao, Y, Capodici, A, Cárdenas, R, Carr, S, Carreras, G, Carrero, JJ, Carugno, A, Carvalheiro, CG, Carvalho, F, Carvalho, M, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, Catalá-López, F, Catapano, AL, Cattaruzza, MS, Cederroth, CR, Cegolon, L, Cembranel, F, Cenderadewi, M, Cercy, KM, Cerin, E, Cevik, M, Chadwick, J, Chahine, Y, Chakraborty, C, Chakraborty, PA, Chan, JSK, Chan, RNC, Chandika, RM, Chandrasekar, EK, Chang, C-K, Chang, J-C, Chanie, GS, Charalampous, P, Chattu, VK, Chaturvedi, P, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou, V, Chaurasia, A, Chen, AW, Chen, A-T, Chen, CS, Chen, H, Chen, MX, Chen, S, Cheng, C-Y, Cheng, ETW, Cherbuin, N, Cheru, WA, Chien, J-H, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chimoriya, R, Ching, PR, Chirinos-Caceres, JL, Chitheer, A, Cho, WCS, Chong, B, Chopra, H, Choudhari, SG, Chowdhury, R, Christopher, DJ, Chukwu, IS, Chung, E, Chung, S-C, Chutiyami, M, Cindi, Z, Cioffi, I, Claassens, MM, Claro, RM, Coberly, K, Cogen, RM, Columbus, A, Comfort, H, Conde, J, Cortese, S, Cortesi, PA, Costa, VM, Costanzo, S, Cousin, E, Couto, RAS, Cowden, RG, Cramer, KM, Criqui, MH, Cruz-Martins, N, Cuadra-Hernández, SM, Culbreth, GT, Cullen, P, Cunningham, M, Curado, MP, Dadana, S, Dadras, O, Dai, S, Dai, X, Dai, Z, Dalli, LL, Damiani, G, Darega Gela, J, Das, JK, Das, S, Dascalu, AM, Dash, NR, Dashti, M, Dastiridou, A, Davey, G, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Davis Weaver, N, Davletov, K, De Leo, D, de Luca, K, Debele, AT, Debopadhaya, S, Degenhardt, L, Dehghan, A, Deitesfeld, L, Del Bo', C, Delgado-Enciso, I, Demessa, BH, Demetriades, AK, Deng, K, Deng, X, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Deravi, N, Dereje, N, Dervenis, N, Dervišević, E, Des Jarlais, DC, Desai, HD, Desai, R, Devanbu, VGC, Dewan, SMR, Dhali, A, Dhama, K, Dhimal, M, Dhingra, S, Dhulipala, VR, Dias da Silva, D, Diaz, D, Diaz, MJ, Dima, A, Ding, DD, Ding, H, Dinis-Oliveira, RJ, Dirac, MA, Djalalinia, S, Do, THP, do Prado, CB, Doaei, S, Dodangeh, M, Dohare, S, Dokova, KG, Dolecek, C, Dominguez, R-MV, Dong, W, Dongarwar, D, D'Oria, M, Dorostkar, F, Dorsey, ER, dos Santos, WM, Doshi, R, 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Ferreira, N, Fetensa, G, Feyisa, BR, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Flavel, J, Flood, D, Florin, BT, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fomenkov, AA, Foroutan, B, Foroutan, M, Forthun, I, Fortuna, D, Foschi, M, Fowobaje, KR, Francis, KL, Franklin, RC, Freitas, A, Friedman, J, Friedman, SD, Fukumoto, T, Fuller, JE, Fux, B, Gaal, PA, Gadanya, MA, Gaidhane, AM, Gaihre, S, Gakidou, E, Galali, Y, Galles, NC, Gallus, S, Ganbat, M, Gandhi, AP, Ganesan, B, Ganiyani, MA, Garcia-Gordillo, MA, Gardner, WM, Garg, J, Garg, N, Gautam, RK, Gbadamosi, SO, Gebi, TG, Gebregergis, MW, Gebrehiwot, M, Gebremeskel, TG, Georgescu, SR, Getachew, T, Gething, PW, Getie, M, Ghadiri, K, Ghahramani, S, Ghailan, KY, Ghasemi, M-R, Ghasempour Dabaghi, G, Ghasemzadeh, A, Ghashghaee, A, Ghassemi, F, Ghazy, RM, Ghimire, A, Ghoba, S, Gholamalizadeh, M, Gholamian, A, Gholamrezanezhad, A, Gholizadeh, N, Ghorbani, M, Ghorbani Vajargah, P, Ghoshal, AG, Gill, PS, Gill, TK, Gillum, RF, Ginindza, TG, Girmay, A, Glasbey, JC, Gnedovskaya, EV, Göbölös, L, Godinho, MA, Goel, A, Golchin, A, Goldust, M, Golechha, M, Goleij, P, Gomes, NGM, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Gorini, G, Goudarzi, H, Goulart, AC, Goulart, BNG, Goyal, A, Grada, A, Graham, SM, Grivna, M, Grosso, G, Guan, S-Y, Guarducci, G, Gubari, MIM, Gudeta, MD, Guha, A, Guicciardi, S, Guimarães, RA, Gulati, S, Gunawardane, DA, Gunturu, S, Guo, C, Gupta, AK, Gupta, B, Gupta, MK, Gupta, M, Gupta, RD, Gupta, R, Gupta, S, Gupta, VB, Gupta, VK, Gurmessa, L, Gutiérrez, RA, Habibzadeh, F, Habibzadeh, P, Haddadi, R, Hadei, M, Hadi, NR, Haep, N, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hailu, A, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Halboub, ES, Hall, BJ, Haller, S, Halwani, R, Hamadeh, RR, Hameed, S, Hamidi, S, Hamilton, EB, Han, C, Han, Q, Hanif, A, Hanifi, N, Hankey, GJ, Hanna, F, Hannan, MA, Haque, MN, Harapan, H, Hargono, A, Haro, JM, Hasaballah, AI, Hasan, I, Hasan, MT, Hasani, H, Hasanian, M, Hashi, A, Hasnain, MS, Hassan, I, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Haubold, J, Havmoeller, RJ, Hay, SI, He, J, Hebert, JJ, 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Published: 2024

4. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Kyu, Hh, Abate, D, Abate, Kh, Abay, Sm, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, Rs, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abil, Oz, Aboyans, V, Abrham, Ar, Abu-Raddad, Lj, Abu-Rmeileh, Nme, Accrombessi, Mmk, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, In, Adamu, Aa, Adebayo, Om, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, Oo, Adib, Mg, Adsuar, Jc, Afanvi, Ka, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, Km, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, Sa, Agrawal, A, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, Mb, Ahmed, S, Aichour, An, Aichour, I, Aichour, Mte, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, Hm, Al-Raddadi, Rm, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, Sm, Alene, Ka, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, Sm, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Aminde, Ln, Amini, E, Amiresmaili, M, Ammar, W, Amoako, Ya, Anber, Nh, Andrei, Cl, Androudi, S, Animut, Md, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, 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Subjects: Male, Health Status, health statu, HALE, mortality rate, communicable disease, DALYs, Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, Prevalence, Medicine and Health Sciences, Singapore, OUTCOMES, disability-adjusted life year, international cooperation, Medicine (all), 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Central African Republic, newborn disease, IRON-DEFICIENCY, AIDS, priority journal, Bahrain, disease severity, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, cerebrovascular accident, Ukraine, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, INTERVENTIONS, Slovakia, DISORDERS, Burundi, WEIGHTS, GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, Communicable Diseases, Article, STYLE, Medicine, General & Internal, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Humans, Disabled Persons, human, Healthy Lifestyle, HALE, DALYs, global burden of disease, Mortality, Aged, Science & Technology, Mortality, Premature, HIV, ischemic heart disease, major clinical study, PREVENTION, non communicable disease, GBD, disability-adjusted life-years, age, sex factor, Socioeconomic Factors, Algeria, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, lower respiratory tract infection, Wounds and Injuries, GENDER, Human medicine, trend study, chronic obstructive lung disease
Abstract: Background How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7.4 years (95% uncertainty interval 74-7.8), from 65.6 years (65.3-65- 8) in 1990 to 73.0 years (72.7-73.3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5.1 years (5.0-5.3) in high SDI countries to 12.0 years (11.3-12.8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26.3% (20.1-33.1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11.7% (8.8-15.1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6.3 years (5.9-6.7), from 57.0 years (54.6-59.1) in 1990 to 63.3 years (60.5-65.7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3.8 years (3.4-4.1) in high SDI countries to 10.5 years (9.8-11.2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1.0 year (0.4-1.7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62.4 years [59.9-64.7] in 1990 to 63.5 years [60.9-65.8] in 2017) to 23.7 years (21.9-25.6) in Eritrea (30.7 years [28.9-32.2] in 1990 to 54.4 years [51.5-57.1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1.4 years (0.6-2.3) in Algeria to 11.9 years (10.9-12.9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75.8 years [72.4-78.7]) and males (72.6 years [69 " 8-75.0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47.0 years [43.7-50.2] for females and 42.8 years [40.1-45.6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41.3% (38.8-43.5) for communicable diseases and by 49"8% (47.9-51.6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40.1% (36.8-43.0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18.1% (16.0-20.2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low S DI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2018

5. Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Afshin, A, Sur, PJ, Fay, KA, Cornaby, L, Ferrara, G, Salama, JS, Mullany, EC, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abebe, Z, Afarideh, M, Aggarwal, A, Agrawal, S, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Bacha, U, Bachman, VF, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Bensenor, IM, Bernabe, E, Biryukov, SH, Biadgilign, SKK, Cahill, LE, Carrero, JJ, Cercy, KM, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, AK, Degefa, MG, El Sayed Zaki, M, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Fanzo, J, Farinha, CSES, Farvid, MS, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Fernandes, JC, Flor, LS, Foigt, NA, Forouzanfar, MH, Ganji, M, Geleijnse, JM, Gillum, RF, Goulart, AC, Grosso, G, Guessous, I, Hamidi, S, Hankey, GJ, Harikrishnan, S, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Hoang, CL, Horino, M, Ikeda, N, Islami, F, Jackson, MD, James, SL, Johansson, L, Jonas, JB, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khang, YH, Kimokoti, RW, Kokubo, Y, Kumar, GA, Lallukka, T, Lopez, AD, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, PA, Lozano, R, Malekzadeh, R, März, W, Meier, T, Melaku, YA, Mendoza, W, Mensink, GBM, Micha, R, Miller, TR, Mirarefin, M, Mohan, V, Mokdad, AH, Mozaffarian, D, Nagel, G, Naghavi, M, Nguyen, CT, Nixon, MR, Ong, KL, Pereira, DM, Poustchi, H, Qorbani, M, Rai, RK, Razo-García, C, Rehm, CD, Rivera, JA, Rodríguez-Ramírez, S, Roshandel, G, Roth, GA, Wu, Jason ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2073-3562, Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937, Afshin, A, Sur, PJ, Fay, KA, Cornaby, L, Ferrara, G, Salama, JS, Mullany, EC, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abebe, Z, Afarideh, M, Aggarwal, A, Agrawal, S, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Bacha, U, Bachman, VF, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Bensenor, IM, Bernabe, E, Biryukov, SH, Biadgilign, SKK, Cahill, LE, Carrero, JJ, Cercy, KM, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, AK, Degefa, MG, El Sayed Zaki, M, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Fanzo, J, Farinha, CSES, Farvid, MS, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Fernandes, JC, Flor, LS, Foigt, NA, Forouzanfar, MH, Ganji, M, Geleijnse, JM, Gillum, RF, Goulart, AC, Grosso, G, Guessous, I, Hamidi, S, Hankey, GJ, Harikrishnan, S, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Hoang, CL, Horino, M, Ikeda, N, Islami, F, Jackson, MD, James, SL, Johansson, L, Jonas, JB, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khang, YH, Kimokoti, RW, Kokubo, Y, Kumar, GA, Lallukka, T, Lopez, AD, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, PA, Lozano, R, Malekzadeh, R, März, W, Meier, T, Melaku, YA, Mendoza, W, Mensink, GBM, Micha, R, Miller, TR, Mirarefin, M, Mohan, V, Mokdad, AH, Mozaffarian, D, Nagel, G, Naghavi, M, Nguyen, CT, Nixon, MR, Ong, KL, Pereira, DM, Poustchi, H, Qorbani, M, Rai, RK, Razo-García, C, Rehm, CD, Rivera, JA, Rodríguez-Ramírez, S, Roshandel, G, Roth, GA, Wu, Jason ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2073-3562, and Schutte, Alta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-4937
Abstract: Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction)among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]10–12)deaths and 255 million (234–274)DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1–5]deaths and 70 million [34–118]DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2–4]deaths and 82 million [59–109]DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1–4]deaths and 65 million [41–92]DALYs)were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. Fundin
Published: 2019

6. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Lozano, Rafael, Fullman, Nancy, Abate, Degu, Abay, Solomon M, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdel-Rahman, Omar, Abdi, Alireza, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje, Abebe, Zegeye, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Abera, Semaw F, Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Aboyans, Victor, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Abyu, Gebre Y, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adhikari, Tara Ballav, Adib, Mina G, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, Jose C, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshari, Mahdi, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agius, Dominic, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayem, Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie, Akanda, Ali S, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akibu, Mohammed, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Albujeer, Ammar, Alebel, Animut, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine A, Almasi, Ali, Al-Maskari, Fatma, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M, Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amenu, Kebede, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Anderson, Jason A, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Hossein, Ansariadi, Ansariadi, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Appiah, Lambert Tetteh, Aremu, Olatunde, Areri, Habtamu Abera, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Monika, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Assadi, Reza, Ataro, Zerihun, Atique, Suleman, Atre, Sachin R, Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan, Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide F G A, Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayele, Henok Tadesse, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza, Azzopardi, Peter S, Azzopardi-Muscat, Natasha, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Amitava, Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Banstola, Amrit, Barac, Aleksandra, Barboza, Miguel A, Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Barrero, Lope H, Barthelemy, Celine M, Bassat, Quique, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Battista, Robert J, Baune, Bernhard T, Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belachew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus, Belay, Saba Abraham, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L, Bello, Aminu K, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam, Berman, Adam E, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S, Bertolacci, Gregory J, Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhansali, Anil, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Biadgo, Belete, Biehl, Molly H, Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Birlik, Sait Mentes, Birungi, Charles, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Bitew, Helen, Bizuneh, Hailemichael, Bjertness, Espen, Bobasa, Eshetu Mulisa, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Bozorgmehr, Kayvan, Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi, Brainin, Michael, Brant, Luisa C, Brauer, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Briant, Paul Svitil, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Bukhman, Gene, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Callender, Charlton SKH, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar, Cano, Jorge, Car, Josip, Car, Mate, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan J, Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Félix, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Castro, Franz, Causey, Kate, Çavlin, Alanur, Cercy, Kelly M, Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chalek, Julian, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chattopadhyay, Aparajita, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chin, Ken Lee, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee-Young J, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J, Chung, Sheng-Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Claro, Rafael M, Claßen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne, Cohen, Aaron J, Collado-Mateo, Daniel, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cornaby, Leslie, Cortinovis, Monica, Costa, Megan, Cousin, Ewerton, Cromwell, Elizabeth A, Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Cunningham, Matthew, Daba, Alemneh Kabeta, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dang, Anh Kim, Dargan, Paul I, Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Siddharth K, Das Gupta, Rajat, das Neves, José, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Davis, Adrian C, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, Dayama, Anand, de Courten, Barbora, De Leo, Diego, De Neve, Jan-Walter, De Steur, Hans, Degefa, Meaza Girma, Degenhardt, Louisa, Degfie, Tizta Tilahun, Deiparine, Selina, Dellavalle, Robert P, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Demtsu, Balem, Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dhimal, Meghnath, Dicker, Daniel, Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese, Ding, Eric L, Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Huyen Phuc, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Driscoll, Tim Robert, Duan, Leilei, Dubey, Manisha, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Duncan, Bruce B, Duraes, Andre R, Ebrahimpour, Soheil, Edvardsson, David, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, Eldrenkamp, Erika, El-Khatib, Ziad, Elyazar, Iqbal RF, Enayati, Ahmadali, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esteghamati, Alireza, Esteghamati, Sadaf, Estep, Kara, Fakhar, Mahdi, Fakhim, Hamed, Fanzo, Jessica, Faramarzi, Mahbobeh, Fareed, Mohammad, Farhadi, Farzaneh, Farid, Talha A, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá, Farioli, Andrea, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S, Farzadfar, Farshad, Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein, Farzam, Hossein, Fazaeli, Ali Akbar, Fazeli, Mir Sohail, Feigin, Valery L, Feigl, Andrea B, Fekadu, Wubalem, Feldman, Rachel, Fentahun, Netsanet, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Fernandes, Joao C, Feyissa, Garumma Tolu, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Filip, Irina, Finegold, Samuel, Finger, Jonas David, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flor, Luisa Sorio, Foigt, Nataliya A, Foreman, Kyle J, Frank, Tahvi D, Franklin, Richard Charles, Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fukutaki, Kai, Fuller, John E, Fürst, Thomas, Furtado, João M, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Gallus, Silvano, Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho, Gansevoort, Ron T, Garcia, Ana Cristina, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A, Gardner, William M, Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Gebre, Teshome, Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebremichael, Bereket, Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo, Gelano, Tilayie Feto, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea, Getachew, Sefonias, Gething, Peter W, Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul, Ghadimi, Reza, Ghadiri, Keyghobad, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Ghiasvand, Hesam, Ghimire, Mamata, Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal, Giampaoli, Simona, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K, Giussani, Giorgia, Gnedovskaya, Elena V, Goldberg, Ellen M, Goli, Srinivas, Gona, Philimon N, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gorman, Taren M, Goto, Atsushi, Goulart, Alessandra C, Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia, Grada, Ayman, Griswold, Max G, Grosso, Giuseppe, Gugnani, Harish Chander C, Guillemin, Francis, Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Prakash C, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Ha, Giang Hai, Haagsma, Juanita A, Hachinski, Vladimir, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan, Hagos, Tekleberhan B, Haile, Michael Tamene, Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamidi, Samer, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Haririan, Hamidreza, Haro, Josep Maria, Hasan, Mehedi, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hawley, Caitlin N, Hay, Simon I, He, Yihua, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar, Hegazy, Mohamed I, Heibati, Behzad, Heidari, Behnam, Heidari, Mohsen, Hendrie, Delia, Henok, Andualem, Heredia-Pi, Ileana, Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Behzad, Heydarpour, Fatemeh, Heydarpour, Sousan, Hibstu, Desalegn T, Híjar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Daniel J, Hole, Michael K, Homaie Rad, Enayatollah, Hoogar, Praveen, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hsiao, Thomas, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J, Hughes, Caitlyn, Huynh, Chantal K, Igumbor, Ehimario U, Ikeda, Chad Thomas, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Ivers, Rebecca Q, Izadi, Neda, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, Jalu, Moti Tolera, Jamal, Amr A, James, Spencer L, Jassal, Simerjot K, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S, Johnson, Catherine O, Johnson, Sarah C, Jonas, Jost B, Jonnagaddala, Jitendra, Jorjoran Shushtari, Zahra, Joshi, Ankur, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jungari, Suresh Banayya, Jürisson, Mikk, K, Madhanraj, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kahssay, Molla, Kalani, Rizwan, Kapil, Umesh, Karami, Manoochehr, Karami Matin, Behzad, Karanikolos, Marina, Karimi, Narges, Karimi, Seyed M, Karimi-Sari, Hamidreza, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Dessalegn H, Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazemi, Zhila, Karyani, Ali Kazemi, Kazi, Dhruv Satish, KC, Prakash, Kebede, Seifu, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kemp, Grant Rodgers, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaei, Behzad, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khajavi, Alireza, Khalid, Nauman, Khalil, Ibrahim A, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khang, Young-Ho, Khanna, Tripti, Khater, Mona M, Khatony, Alireza, Khazaeipour, Zahra, Khazaie, Habibolah, Khoja, Abdullah T, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A, Kiarie, Helen W, Kibret, Getiye D, Kiirithio, Daniel N, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Jun Y, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinra, Sanjay, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivimäki, Mika, Kocarnik, Jonathan M, Kochhar, Sonali, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolola, Tufa, Kopec, Jacek A, Kosek, Margaret N, Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A, Krishan, Kewal, Krohn, Kristopher J, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kudom, Andreas A, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kutz, Michael J, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, Lachat, Carl, Lad, Deepesh P, Lad, Sheetal D, Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lagat, Abraham K, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lamichhane, Prabhat, Lan, Qing, Lang, Justin J, Lansingh, Van C, Lansky, Sonia, Larson, Heidi J, Larsson, Anders O, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Lassi, Zohra S, Latifi, Arman, Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming, Laxmaiah, Avula, Lazarus, Jeffrey V, Leasher, Janet L, Lebedev, Georgy, Ledesma, Jorge R, Lee, James B, Lee, Paul H, Leever, Andrew T, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leshargie, Cheru Tesema, Leung, Janni, Lewycka, Sonia, Li, Shanshan, Li, Xiaohong, Li, Yichong, Liang, Juan, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Lee-Ling, Limenih, Miteku Andualem, Linn, Shai, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lopez, Alan D, Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lucchesi, Lydia R, Lyons, Ronan A, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Mackay, Mark T, Maddison, Emilie R, Madotto, Fabiana, Maghavani, Dhaval P, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A, Manda, Ana-Laura, Mandarano-Filho, Luiz Garcia, Mangalam, Srikanth, Manguerra, Helena, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Maravilla, Joemer C, Marcenes, Wagner, Marks, Ashley, Martin, Randall V, Martins, Sheila C O, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Martopullo, Ira, Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa, 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Subjects: GENDER-DIFFERENCES, SUICIDE, Medicine (all), Burden of Disease Study 2017, SDG, CONSUMPTION, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, GBD, Sustainable Development Goals, PREVENTION, ALCOHOL-USE, CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE, SMOKING PREVALENCE, General & Internal Medicine, factors risk, Medicine and Health Sciences, Human medicine, CESSATION, PERSPECTIVE, TRANSITION
Abstract: Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59.4 (IQR 35.4-67.3), ranging from a low of 11.6 (95% uncertainty interval 9.6-14.0) to a high of 84.9 (83.1-86.7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attaimnent by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health -related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health -related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence -related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains curative interventions in the case of NCDs towards multisectoral, prevention -oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the S DGs. What is clear is that our actions or inaction today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Published: 2018

7. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Afshin, Ashkan, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Lim, Stephen S., Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A., Adane, Akilew Awoke, Adebayo, Oladimeji M., Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Ademi, Zanfina, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O., Adib, Mina G., Admasie, Amha, Adsuar, Jose C., Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, Mohsen, Agarwal, Gina, Aggarwal, Anju, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M., Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Samiah, Alam, Tahiya, Alashi, Alaa, Alavian, Seyed Moayed, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Komal, Ali, Syed Mustafa, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Ammar, Walid, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Anderson, Jason A., Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antó, Josep M., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Appiah, Lambert Tetteh, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Arabloo, Jalal, Aremu, Olatunde, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Ataro, Zerihun, Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A., Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayer, Rakesh, Ayuk, Tambe B., Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ball, Kylie, Ballew, Shoshana H., Banach, Maciej, Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Barrero, Lope H., Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bekru, Eyasu Tamru, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Bergeron, Gilles, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Bjørge, Tone, Blacker, Brigette F., Bleyer, Archie, Borschmann, Rohan, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R., Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J., Brauer, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J.K., Brenner, Hermann, Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Burnett, Richard T., Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Cahill, Leah E., Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Cárdenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carvalho, Félix, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Castro, Franz, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Causey, Kate, Cercy, Kelly M., Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chang, Hsing Yi, Chang, Jung Chen, Chang, Kai Lan, Charlson, Fiona J., Chattopadhyay, Aparajita, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chee, Miao Li, Cheng, Ching Yu, Chew, Adrienne, Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chin, Ken Lee, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee Young J., Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J., Chung, Sheng Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M., Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J., Collado-Mateo, Daniel, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Owen R., Coresh, Josef, 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Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kuzin, Igor, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, Lachat, Carl, Lad, Deepesh P., Lad, Sheetal D., Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lang, Justin J., Lansingh, Van C., Larson, Samantha Leigh, Latifi, Arman, Lazarus, Jeffrey V., Lee, Paul H., Leigh, James, Leili, Mostafa, Leshargie, Cheru Tesema, Leung, Janni, Levi, Miriam, Lewycka, Sonia, Li, Shanshan, Li, Yichong, Liang, Juan, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liao, Yu, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Lee Ling, Linn, Shai, Liu, Shiwei, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lopez, Alan D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Tim C.D., Lunevicius, Raimundas, Ma, Stefan, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Machado, Ísis Eloah, Madotto, Fabiana, Mai, Hue Thi, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A., Manda, Ana Laura, Manguerra, Helena, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni, Maravilla, Joemer C., Marcenes, Wagner, Marks, Ashley, Martin, Randall V., Martins, Sheila C.O., Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, März, Winfried, Marzan, Melvin B., Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard, Mathur, Manu Raj, Mathur, Prashant, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Maulik, Pallab K., Mazidi, Mohsen, McAlinden, Colm, McGrath, John J., McKee, Martin, Mehrotra, Ravi, Mehta, Kala M., Mehta, Varshil, Meier, Toni, Mekonnen, Fantahun Ayenew, Melaku, Yohannes A., Melese, Addisu, Melku, Mulugeta, Memiah, Peter T.N., Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Mensah, George A., Mensink, Gert B.M., Mereta, Seid Tiku, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Mestrovic, Tomislav, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Miazgowski, Bartosz, Miazgowski, Tomasz, Millear, Anoushka I., Miller, Ted R., Miller-Petrie, Molly Katherine, Mini, G. K., Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirica, Andreea, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Mitiku, Habtamu, Moazen, Babak, Mohajer, Bahram, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadi, Moslem, Mohammadifard, Noushin, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Mokdad, Ali H., Molokhia, Mariam, Momeniha, Fatemeh, Monasta, Lorenzo, Moodley, Yoshan, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Douglas, Moschos, Marilita M., Mouodi, Simin, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Mruts, Kalayu Brhane, Muche, Achenef Asmamaw, Muchie, Kindie Fentahun, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Muhammed, Oumer Sada, Mukhopadhyay, Satinath, Muller, Kate, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Mustafa, Ghulam, Nabhan, Ashraf F., Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Nahvijou, Azin, Naik, Gurudatta, Naik, Nitish, Najafi, Farid, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Nascimento, Bruno Ramos, Neal, Bruce, Neamati, Nahid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Neupane, Subas, Newton, Charles Richard James, Ngunjiri, Josephine W., Nguyen, Anh Quynh, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Ha Thu, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Huong Thanh, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Nam Ba, Nichols, Emma, Nie, Jing, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nirayo, Yirga Legesse, Nishi, Nobuo, Nixon, Molly R., Nojomi, Marzieh, Nomura, Shuhei, Norheim, Ole F., Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacques, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nsoesie, Elaine O., Nyasulu, Peter S., Obermeyer, Carla M., Odell, Christopher M., Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T., Olagunju, Tinuke O., Olivares, Pedro R., Olsen, Helen Elizabeth, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin L., Ong, Sok King, Oren, Eyal, Orpana, Heather M., Ortiz, Alberto, Ota, Erika, Otstavnov, Stanislav S., Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, P A, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana, Pakhare, Abhijit P., Pakpour, Amir H., Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Park, Eun Kee, Parry, Charles D.H., Parsian, Hadi, Patel, Shanti, Pati, Sanghamitra, Patil, Snehal T., Patle, Ajay, Patton, George C., Paudel, Deepak, Paulson, Katherine R., Paz Ballesteros, Wayra Citlali, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M., Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pham, Hai Quang, Phillips, Michael R., Pillay, Julian David, Piradov, Michael A., Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pischon, Tobias, Pishgar, Farhad, Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer, Plass, Dietrich, Polinder, Suzanne, Polkinghorne, Kevan R., Postma, Maarten J., Poulton, Richie, Pourshams, Akram, Poustchi, Hossein, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prakash, Swayam, Prasad, Narayan, Purcell, Caroline A., Purwar, Manorama B., Qorbani, Mostafa, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rafiei, Alireza, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi, Zohreh, Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz ur, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajati, Fatemeh, Rajsic, Sasa, Raju, Sree Bhushan, Ram, Usha, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Ranjan, Prabhat, Rath, Goura Kishor, Rawaf, David Laith, Rawaf, Salman, Reddy, K. Srinath, Rehm, Colin D., Rehm, Jürgen, Reiner, Robert C., Reitsma, Marissa B., Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre M.N., Resnikoff, Serge, Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam, Rezaei, Satar, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P., Rivera, Juan A., Roba, Kedir Teji, Rodríguez-Ramírez, Sonia, Roever, Leonardo, Román, Yesenia, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Roth, Gregory A., Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Ambuj, Rubagotti, Enrico, Rushton, Lesley, Sabanayagam, Charumathi, Sachdev, Perminder S., Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Hosein, Safari, Yahya, Safari-Faramani, Roya, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, Haniye Sadat, Salam, Nasir, Salamati, Payman, Saleem, Zikria, Salimi, Yahya, Salimzadeh, Hamideh, Salomon, Joshua A., Salvi, Devashri Digvijay, Salz, Inbal, Samy, Abdallah M., Sanabria, Juan, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores, Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G., Sanders, Taren, Sang, Yingying, Santomauro, Damian Francesco, Santos, Itamar S., Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M., Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi, Sardana, Mayank, Sarker, Abdur Razzaque, Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo, Sarrafzadegan, Nizal, Sartorius, Benn, Sarvi, Shahabeddin, Sathian, Brijesh, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawant, Arundhati R., Sawhney, Monika, Saylan, Mete, Sayyah, Mehdi, Schaeffner, Elke, Schmidt, Maria Inês, Schneider, Ione J.C., Schöttker, Ben, Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth, Schwebel, David C., Schwendicke, Falk, Scott, James G., Seedat, Soraya, Sekerija, Mario, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Serre, Marc L., Serván-Mori, Edson, Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba, Shabaninejad, Hosein, Shaddick, Gavin, Shafieesabet, Azadeh, Shahbazi, Mehdi, Shaheen, Amira A., Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shamah Levy, Teresa, Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran, Shamsi, Mohammadbagher, Sharafi, Heidar, Sharafi, Kiomars, Sharif, Mehdi, Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi, Sharifi, Hamid, Sharma, Jayendra, Sharma, Meenakshi, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikh, Aziz, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay, Shigematsu, Mika, Shin, Min Jeong, Shiri, Rahman, Shirkoohi, Reza, Shiue, Ivy, Shokraneh, Farhad, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G., Shupler, Matthew S., Si, Si, Siabani, Soraya, Sibai, Abla Mehio, Siddiqi, Tariq J., Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig, Silva, Diego Augusto Santos, Silva, João Pedro, Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves, Singh, Jasvinder A., Singh, Narinder Pal, Singh, Virendra, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Skirbekk, Vegard, Smith, David L., Smith, Mari, Sobaih, Badr Hasan, Sobhani, Soheila, Somayaji, Ranjani, Soofi, Moslem, Sorensen, Reed J.D., Soriano, Joan B., Soyiri, Ireneous N., Spinelli, Angela, Sposato, Luciano A., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Srinivasan, Vinay, Starodubov, Vladimir I., Steckling, Nadine, Stein, Dan J., Stein, Murray B., Stevanovic, Goran, Stockfelt, Leo, Stokes, Mark A., Sturua, Lela, Subart, Michelle L., Sudaryanto, Agus, Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Sulo, Gerhard, Sunguya, Bruno F., Sur, Patrick John, Sykes, Bryan L., Szoeke, Cassandra E.I., Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tabuchi, Takahiro, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Takahashi, Ken, Tandon, Nikhil, Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw, Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey, Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin, Temesgen, Habtamu, Temsah, Mohamad Hani, Temsah, Omar, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Belay, Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Theis, Andrew, Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish, Thomas, Hannah J., Thomas, Matthew Lloyd, Thomas, Nihal, Thurston, George D., Tilahun, Binyam, Tillmann, Taavi, To, Quyen G., Tobollik, Myriam, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna E., Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel, Touvier, Mathilde, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto, Towbin, Jeffrey A., Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Khanh Bao, Truelsen, Thomas Clement, Truong, Nu Thi, Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Tuzcu, E. 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Hsiao, Thoma, Hu, Guoqing, Hu, Howard, Huang, John J, Hussen, Mamusha Aman, Huynh, Chantal K, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Nayu, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Jackson, Maria D, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, James, Spencer L, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S, Jonas, Jost B, Jonnagaddala, Jitendra, Jorjoran Shushtari, Zahra, Joshi, Ankur, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kahsay, Amaha, Kalani, Rizwan, Kanchan, Tanuj, Kant, Surya, Kar, Chittaranjan, Karami, Manoochehr, Karami Matin, Behzad, Karch, André, Karema, Corine, Karimi, Narge, Karimi, Seyed M, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Dessalegn H, Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kaul, Anil, 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Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kuzin, Igor, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, Lachat, Carl, Lad, Deepesh P, Lad, Sheetal D, Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lang, Justin J, Lansingh, Van C, Larson, Samantha Leigh, Latifi, Arman, Lazarus, Jeffrey V, Lee, Paul H, Leigh, Jame, Leili, Mostafa, Leshargie, Cheru Tesema, Leung, Janni, Levi, Miriam, Lewycka, Sonia, Li, Shanshan, Li, Yichong, Liang, Juan, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liao, Yu, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Lee-Ling, Linn, Shai, Liu, Shiwei, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lopez, Alan D, Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Tim C D, Lunevicius, Raimunda, Ma, Stefan, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Machado, Ísis Eloah, Madotto, Fabiana, Mai, Hue Thi, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A, Manda, Ana-Laura, Manguerra, Helena, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni, Maravilla, Joemer C, Marcenes, Wagner, Marks, Ashley, 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Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Mokdad, Ali H, Molokhia, Mariam, Momeniha, Fatemeh, Monasta, Lorenzo, Moodley, Yoshan, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Dougla, Moschos, Marilita M, Mouodi, Simin, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Mruts, Kalayu Brhane, Muche, Achenef Asmamaw, Muchie, Kindie Fentahun, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Muhammed, Oumer Sada, Mukhopadhyay, Satinath, Muller, Kate, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Mustafa, Ghulam, Nabhan, Ashraf F, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Nahvijou, Azin, Naik, Gurudatta, Naik, Nitish, Najafi, Farid, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Nascimento, Bruno Ramo, Neal, Bruce, Neamati, Nahid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Neupane, Suba, Newton, Charles Richard Jame, Ngunjiri, Josephine W, Nguyen, Anh Quynh, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Ha Thu, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Huong Thanh, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Nam Ba, Nichols, Emma, Nie, Jing, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nirayo, Yirga Legesse, Nishi, Nobuo, Nixon, Molly R, Nojomi, Marzieh, Nomura, Shuhei, Norheim, Ole F, Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacque, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nsoesie, Elaine O, Nyasulu, Peter S, Obermeyer, Carla M, Odell, Christopher M, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T, Olagunju, Tinuke O, Olivares, Pedro R, Olsen, Helen Elizabeth, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin L, Ong, Sok King, Oren, Eyal, Orpana, Heather M, Ortiz, Alberto, Ota, Erika, Otstavnov, Stanislav S, Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, P A, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana, Pakhare, Abhijit P, Pakpour, Amir H, Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D H, Parsian, Hadi, Patel, Shanti, Pati, Sanghamitra, Patil, Snehal T, Patle, Ajay, Patton, George C, Paudel, Deepak, Paulson, Katherine R, Paz Ballesteros, Wayra 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N, Resnikoff, Serge, Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam, Rezaei, Satar, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P, Rivera, Juan A, Roba, Kedir Teji, Rodríguez-Ramírez, Sonia, Roever, Leonardo, Román, Yesenia, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Ambuj, Rubagotti, Enrico, Rushton, Lesley, Sabanayagam, Charumathi, Sachdev, Perminder S, Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Hosein, Safari, Yahya, Safari-Faramani, Roya, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, Haniye Sadat, Salam, Nasir, Salamati, Payman, Saleem, Zikria, Salimi, Yahya, Salimzadeh, Hamideh, Salomon, Joshua A, Salvi, Devashri Digvijay, Salz, Inbal, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolore, Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G, Sanders, Taren, Sang, Yingying, Santomauro, Damian Francesco, Santos, Itamar S, Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi, 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Muthiah, Vaezi, Afsane, Valdez, Pascual R, Van Donkelaar, Aaron, Varavikova, Elena, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Venkateswaran, Vidhya, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Villafaina, Santo, Violante, Francesco S, Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Vosoughi, Kia, Vu, Giang Thu, Vujcic, Isidora S, Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw, Waheed, Yasir, Waller, Stephen G, Walson, Judd L, Wang, Yafeng, Wang, Yanping, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weldegebreal, Fitsum, Werdecker, Andrea, Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew, West, J Jason, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Widecka, Justyna, Wijeratne, Tissa, Winkler, Andrea Sylvia, Wiyeh, Alison B, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wolfe, Charles D A, Wong, Tien Yin, Wu, Shouling, Xavier, Deni, Xu, Gelin, Yadgir, Simon, Yadollahpour, Ali, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein, Yamada, Tomohide, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Yasin, Yasin Jemal, Yeshaneh, Alex, Yimer, Ebrahim M, Yip, Paul, Yisma, Engida, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yousefifard, Mahmoud, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaman, Sojib Bin, Zamani, Mohammad, Zavala-Arciniega, Lui, Zhang, Anthony Lin, Zhang, Hao, Zhang, Kai, Zhou, Maigeng, Zimsen, Stephanie R M, Zodpey, Sanjay, and Murray, Christopher J L
Subjects: Science & Technology, GBD, risks, risk factors, comparative risk assesment, Dalys, Medicine (all), CHOLESTEROL, BLOOD-PRESSURE, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, ILLNESS, TRENDS, humanities, Medicine, General & Internal, TOBACCO CONTROL, General & Internal Medicine, parasitic diseases, Medicine and Health Sciences, CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASES, TRIAL, Human medicine, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, METAANALYSIS
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk– outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Lancet 2018; 392: 1923–94 *Collaborators listed at the end of the paper Correspondence to: Prof Christopher J L Murray, Institute for Health Metrics and Evalution, Seattle, WA 98121, USA cjlm@uw.edu Global Health Metrics 1924 www.thelancet.com Vol 392 November 10, 2018 Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.
Published: 2018

8. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: James, Spencer L., Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M., Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Zegeye, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E., Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Ackerman, Ilana N., Adamu, Abdu A., Adebayo, Oladimeji M., Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O., Adib, Mina G., Adsuar, Jose C., Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M., Aggarwal, Rakesh, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M., Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alashi, Alaa, Alavian, Seyed Moayed, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Alouani, Mohamed M. L., Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Aminde, Leopold N., Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Arabloo, Jalal, Arauz, Antonio, Aremu, Olatunde, Ariani, Filippo, Armoon, Bahroom, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Amit, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Ataro, Zerihun, Atre, Sachin R., Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A., Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ballesteros, Katherine E., Ballew, Shoshana H., Banach, Maciej, Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Banstola, Amrit, Barac, Aleksandra, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Barrero, Lope H., Baune, Bernhard T., Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Béjot, Yannick, Belachew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bensenor, Isabela M., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Blacker, Brigette F., Blyth, Fiona M., Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R., Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J., Brainin, Michael, Brant, Luisa C., Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J. 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Marzan, Mb, Mashamba-Thompson, Tp, Massenburg, Bb, Mathur, Mr, Maulik, Pk, Mcgrath, Jj, Mehndiratta, Mm, Mehta, Km, Memiah, Ptn, Memish, Za, Mengistu, Dt, Mensah, Ga, Mereta, St, Meretoja, Tj, Mezerji, Nmg, Millear, Ai, Miller, Tr, Mini, Gk, Mirrakhimov, Em, Misganaw, At, Mitchell, Pb, Mohammad, Ka, Mohammed, Ma, Mokdad, Ah, Morrison, Sd, Moschos, Mm, Mousavi, Sm, Mruts, Kb, Muche, Aa, Muchie, Kf, Mueller, Uo, Mumford, Je, Musa, Ki, Nabhan, Af, Nansseu, Jr, Nascimento, Br, Negoi, Ri, Newton, Crj, Ngunjiri, Jw, Nguyen, Aq, Nguyen, Ht, Nguyen, Hlt, Nguyen, Lh, Nguyen, Nb, Nguyen, Sh, Ningrum, Dna, Nixon, Mr, Norheim, Of, Noubiap, Jj, Nouri, Hr, Nowroozi, Mr, Nsoesie, Eo, Odell, Cm, Ogbo, Fa, Oh, Ih, Olagunju, At, Olagunju, To, Olivares, Pr, Olsen, He, Olusanya, Bo, Ong, Kl, Ong, Sk, Owolabi, Mo, Pakpour, Ah, Park, Ek, Parry, Cdh, Patil, St, Patton, Gc, Paturi, Vr, Paulson, Kr, Pereira, Dm, Pham, Hq, Phillips, Mr, Pigott, Dm, Pillay, Jd, Piradov, Ma, Postma, Mj, Purcell, Ca, Purwar, Mb, 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Dorairaj, Prakash, Swayam, Prakash, V., Purcell, Caroline A, Purwar, Manorama B, Qorbani, Mostafa, Quistberg, D Alex, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rafiei, Alireza, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz ur, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajati, Fatemeh, Ram, Usha, Ranjan, Prabhat, Ranta, Anna, Rao, Puja C, Rawaf, David Laith, Rawaf, Salman, Reddy, K Srinath, Reiner, Robert C, Reinig, Nickola, Reitsma, Marissa Bettay, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre M N, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Satar, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P, Robinson, Stephen R, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Roth, Gregory A, Roy, Ambuj, Rubagotti, Enrico, Sachdev, Perminder S, Sadat, Nafi, Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Hosein, Safari, Yahya, Safari-Faramani, Roya, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, Haniye Sadat, Salam, Nasir, Salama, Joseph S, Salamati, Payman, Saleem, Komal, Saleem, Zikria, Salimi, Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Salvi, Sundeep Santosh, Salz, Inbal, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Sang, Yingying, Santomauro, Damian Francesco, Santos, Itamar S, Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi, Sardana, Mayank, Sarker, Abdur Razzaque, Sarrafzadegan, Nizal, Sartorius, Benn, Sarvi, Shahabeddin, Sathian, Brijesh, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawant, Arundhati R, Sawhney, Monika, Saxena, Sonia, Saylan, Mete, Schaeffner, Elke, Schmidt, Maria Inê, Schneider, Ione J C, Schöttker, Ben, Schwebel, David C, Schwendicke, Falk, Scott, James G, Sekerija, Mario, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serván-Mori, Edson, Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba, Shabaninejad, Hosein, Shafieesabet, Azadeh, Shahbazi, Mehdi, Shaheen, Amira A, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran, Shamsi, Mohammadbagher, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Sharafi, Heidar, Sharafi, Kiomar, Sharif, Mehdi, Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi, Sharma, Meenakshi, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikh, Aziz, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shigematsu, Mika, Shiri, Rahman, Shirkoohi, Reza, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shokraneh, Farhad, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G, Si, Si, Siabani, Soraya, Siddiqi, Tariq J, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig, Silva, João Pedro, Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alve, Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Narinder Pal, Singh, Virendra, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Slepak, Erica Leigh N, Sliwa, Karen, Smith, David L, Smith, Mari, Soares Filho, Adauto Martin, Sobaih, Badr Hasan, Sobhani, Soheila, Sobngwi, Eugène, Soneji, Samir S, Soofi, Moslem, Soosaraei, Masoud, Sorensen, Reed J D, Soriano, Joan B, Soyiri, Ireneous N, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Srinivasan, Vinay, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steiner, Timothy J, Stokes, Mark A, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Subart, Michelle L, Sudaryanto, Agu, Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Sunguya, Bruno F, Sur, Patrick John, Sutradhar, Ipsita, Sykes, Bryan L, Sylte, Dillon O, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Tadesse, Birkneh Tilahun, Tandon, Nikhil, Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Taylor, Hugh R, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw, Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey, Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin, Temesgen, Habtamu, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Temsah, Omar, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thomas, Nihal, Tilahun, Binyam, To, Quyen G, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Topouzis, Foti, Torre, Anna E, Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel, Touvier, Mathilde, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Khanh Bao, Troeger, Christopher E, Truelsen, Thomas Clement, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis K, Tsoi, Derrick, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Tuzcu, E Murat, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Ullah, Irfan, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Unutzer, Jurgen, Updike, Rachel L, Usman, Muhammad Shariq, Uthman, Olalekan A, Vaduganathan, Muthiah, Vaezi, Afsane, Valdez, Pascual R, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Villafaina, Santo, Violante, Francesco S, Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vosoughi, Kia, Vujcic, Isidora S, Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw, Waheed, Yasir, Waller, Stephen G, Wang, Yafeng, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weiss, Daniel J, Weldegebreal, Fitsum, Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey, Werdecker, Andrea, West, T Eoin, Whiteford, Harvey A, Widecka, Justyna, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wilner, Lauren B, Wilson, Shadrach, Winkler, Andrea Sylvia, Wiyeh, Alison B, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wolfe, Charles D A, Woolf, Anthony D, Wu, Shouling, Wu, Yun-Chun, Wyper, Grant M A, Xavier, Deni, Xu, Gelin, Yadgir, Simon, Yadollahpour, Ali, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein, Yamada, Tomohide, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Yasin, Yasin Jemal, Yeshaneh, Alex, Yimer, Ebrahim M, Yip, Paul, Yisma, Engida, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yousefifard, Mahmoud, Yu, Chuanhua, Zadnik, Vesna, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaman, Sojib Bin, Zamani, Mohammad, Zare, Zohreh, Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw, Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Zhang, Kai, Zhao, Zheng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zodpey, Sanjay, Zucker, Inbar, Vos, Theo, and Murray, Christopher J L
Subjects: YLDs, global burden of disease, General & Internal Medicine, Medicine (all), prevalence, incidence, Human medicine, global burden of disease, YLDs, incidence, prevalence, GBD, years lived with disability
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 39% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-4. 6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7.2% (6.0-8.4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7.9% (6 6-9. 2) for males and 6.5% (5.4-7.7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-hatin and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2018

9. The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Author: Zheng P, Afshin A, Biryukov S, Bisignano C, Brauer M, Bryazka D, Burkart K, Cercy KM, Cornaby L, Dai X, Dirac MA, Estep K, Fay KA, Feldman R, Ferrari AJ, Gakidou E, Gil GF, Griswold M, Hay SI, He J, Irvine CMS, Kassebaum NJ, LeGrand KE, Lescinsky H, Lim SS, Lo J, Mullany EC, Ong KL, Rao PC, Razo C, Reitsma MB, Roth GA, Santomauro DF, Sorensen RJD, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wang N, Welgan CA, Wozniak SS, Aravkin AY, and Murray CJL
Subjects: Humans, Risk Assessment methods, Risk Factors, Myocardial Ischemia, Smoking
Abstract: Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study., (© 2022. The Author(s).)
Published: 2022
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1. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

2. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

3. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

4. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

5. Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

6. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

7. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

8. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

9. The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

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