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Can artificial intelligence (AI) raise productivity? If we regard AI as a combination of software, hardware, and database use, then it can be modelled as a combination of the deployment of intangible and tangible assets. Since some are measured and some are not, then conventional productivity analysis might miss the contribution of AI. We set out whether there is any evidence to support this view.

The production of goods and services is central to understanding economies. The textbook description of a firm, typically in agriculture or manufacturing, focuses on its physical “tangible” capital (machines), labor (workers), and the state of “know-how. ” Yet real-world firms, such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google, have almost no physical capital. Instead, their main capital assets are “intangible”: software, data, design, reputation, supply-chain expertise, and R&D. We discuss investment in these knowledge-based types of capital: How to measure it; how it affects macroeconomic data on investment, rates of return, and GDP; and how it relates to growth theory and practical growth accounting. We present estimates of productivity in the US and European economies in recent decades including intangibles and discuss why, despite relatively rapid growth in intangible capital and what seems to be a modern technological revolution, productivity growth has slowed since the global financial crisis.

This paper investigates the role of knowledge-based capital for participation and value appropriation in global value chains (GVC) for a sample of European countries over 1995–2011. We distinguish between different forms of participation in GVC entailing a different degree of capability to create value added domestically and examine how different intangible assets contribute to countries' engagement and value appropriation in GVC. We find that knowledge-based capital is positively correlated with participation and value appropriation along the value chain. This finding is robust to introducing separately R&D and non-R&D intangibles. In particular, training and organizational capital have the largest positive effect on value appropriation [JEL Classification: F23, O30].

In this paper, we model the dynamics of business investment taking into account asset-specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of aggregate and disaggregate capital accumulation over the business cycle. We estimate Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and traditional investment (non-ICT) determinants within a Vector Error Correction Model testing the assumptions of the flexible accelerator and neoclassical model as well as the role of financial constraints and uncertainty. We evaluate our model on Italian data over the period 1980–2012, and we check our results also with Spanish and UK data. Our findings support the assumption that capital is heterogeneous since short- and long-run determinants are significantly different across the assets. Traditional assets experience stock adjustment costs while ICT investment incurs flow adjustment cost. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment independently of the asset type. In the long run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster economic growth.

How has capital reallocation affected productivity growth since the financial crisis? For example, have low interest rates disrupted the reallocation process? This paper calculates the effect on productivity growth of capital reallocation between industries. It uses an accounting framework, due to Jorgenson and his co-authors, that computes the contribution of capital services to productivity growth relative to one where rates of return are equalised between sectors: if capital persists in the low return sectors, the reallocation measure falls. Using data from 11 countries (the major EU economies plus the US), in 1997–2013, we find: (a) the contribution of capital reallocation to productivity growth is lower in most economies after than before the financial crisis, notably in Mediterranean countries; (b) more capital reallocation is correlated with lower real interest rates, contrary to the hypothesis that low real interest rates have hurt capital reallocation; (c) controlling for shocks, lower capital reallocation is associated with lower optimism, and weaker financial systems.

This paper sets out theory and measurement of how intangible investment might capture innovation and what data on intangibles look like for the EU, Japan, and the US. We also look at complementarities between information and communications technology (ICT) and intangibles, spillovers from intangibles to growth, and policy implications. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.

We set out intangible investment data by industry for 14 EU countries in 1995-2010 and industry growth accounting incorporating these data for 8 countries. We find: (a) intangible investment has grown in manufacturing and services, but most strongly in services (b) the contribution of intangibles to labour productivity growth is similar in both manufacturing and services and in the high growth economies (Austria, Germany, Finland, France, Netherlands, UK) exceeds the contribution of labour quality (c) the very large size of the service sector means that countries with good manfacturing but poor service productivity growth (Germany and France) have done relatively badly overall and those with good service sector growth (UK, Netherlands) have performed well (d) Spain and Itay have very low labour productivity growth due to very low TFP growth.

This paper uses a new cross-country cross-industry dataset on investment in tangible and intangible assets for 18 European countries and the US. We set out a framework for measuring intangible investment and capital stocks and their effect on output, inputs and total factor productivity. The analysis provides evidence on the diffusion of intangible investment across Europe and the US over the years 2000-2013 and offers growth accounting evidence before and after the Great Recession in 2008-2009. Our major findings are the following. First, tangible investment fell massively during the Great Recession and has hardly recovered, whereas intangible investment has been relatively resilient and recovered fast in the US but lagged behind in the EU. Second, the sources of growth analysis including only national account intangibles (software, R&D, mineral exploration and artistic originals), suggest that capital deepening is the main driver of growth, with tangibles and intangibles accounting for 80% and 20% in the EU while both account for 50% in the US, over 2000-2013. Extending the asset boundary to the intangible assets not included in the national accounts (Corrado, Hulten and Sichel (2005)) makes capital deepening increase. The contribution of tangibles is reduced both in the EU and the US (60% and 40% respectively) while intangibles account for a larger share (40% in EU and 60% in the US). Then, our analysis shows that since the Great Recession, the slowdown in labour productivity growth has been driven by a decline in TFP growth with relatively a minor role for tangible and intangible capital. Finally, we document a significant correlation between stricter employment protection rules and less government investment in R&D, and a lower ratio of intangible to tangible investment.

This paper provides a description of Istat’s new Macroeconometric Model MeMo-It. This is the tool used by Istat to produce bi-annual medium-term forecasts of the Italian economy since May 2012. The key model’s features are illustrated and compared with other modeling approaches used in the literature. The paper describes the theoretical foundations of the model along with the set of equations and their estimation. It also presents an assessment of model’s performance by focusing on the key multipliers.

We study the relation between service off-shoring and productivity growth in the manufacturing sector of a set of European economies in 1995-2005. We document that those countries resorting more to service off-shoring in 1995 experienced faster productivity growth in ICT/R&D intensive industries over the next decade. Our results show also that the productivity gap between more and less ICT/R&D intensive industries was relatively higher in those countries experimenting higher increases in service off-shoring intensity over the period. In both cases, ICT intensity is more relevant than R&D to explain the mechanism through which service off-shoring affects productivity growth. These findings are consistent with the enhancing productivity effects of the complementary relation between service off-shoring and ICT

In a globalized framework, environmental regulations can have a decisive role in influencing countries’ comparative advantages. The conventional perception about environmental protection is that it imposes additional costs on firms, which may reduce their global competitiveness with negative effects on growth and employment. However, some economists, in particular Porter and Van der Linde (1995), argue that pollution is often associated with a waste of resources and that more stringent environmental policies can stimulate innovations that may over-compensate for the costs of complying with these policies. This is known as the Porter hypothesis and suggests the existence of a “double dividend”, for both economic and environmental aspects, related to environmental regulation. In this paper, we adopt a macroeconomic approach to investigate the impact of different environmental instruments on the economy as a whole. We investigate the environmental policy impacts on a sample of European economies in 1995-2008. Our findings suggest that the “narrow” Porter Hypothesis cannot be rejected and that the choice of the policy instruments is not neutral. In particular, market based environmental stringency measures look as the most effective to stimulate innovations and productivity.

In this paper, we model business investment distinguishing between ICT (communication equipment, hardware and software) and Non-ICT (machinery and equipment, and nonresidential buildings) components and taking into account asset specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of capital accumulation over the business cycle. Business investment and ICT and Non-ICT assets are estimated within a VECM model to test, in a unique framework, the assumptions of the flexible accelerator model (Clark, 1944, and Koyck, 1954) and of the neoclassical model of Hall and Jorgenson (1967), as well as how financial constraints and uncertainty influence investment behaviour (Hall and Lerner, 2010, and Bloom, 2007). Our findings suggest that the long-run relationship with standard macro determinants (output and user cost) is verified for aggregate business capital stock as well as for individual Non-ICT assets but not for ICT. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment behaviour independently of the asset type. In the long-run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises over the latest Italian recession support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster the economic recovery.

This paper looks at the channels through which intangible assets affect productivity growth. The econometric analysis exploits a new data set on intangible investment (INTAN-Invest) in conjunction with EUKLEMS productivity estimates for 10 EU member states from 1998 to 2007. We find that (a) the output elasticity of intangible capital depends upon ICT intensity, consistent with complementarities between ICT and intangible capital; (b) non-R&D intangible capital has a higher estimated output elasticity than its factor share, as does (c) an index of labour composition. The last two findings are consistent with growth spillovers from investments in knowledge-based/intangible capital and skills.

We analyze productivity growth differentials across the EU in the perspective of intangible, as well as tangible, capital accumulation. Based on a new international dataset on intangibles, we identify three main EU regions corresponding to the Northern area, Central Europe and the Mediterranean area. We find that intangible capital accumulation has strongly contributed to labor productivity growth in the best performing European economies/regions. Moreover, we find evidence that intangible capital accumulation, especially in software and R&D, is associated with spillover effects.

This paper provides evidence about the diffusion of intangible investment across the EU27 member countries and investigates the role of intangible capital as a source of growth to improve our understanding of the international differences in the mix of drivers of productivity growth across Europe. Our study shows that the capitalization of intangible assets, allow identifying additional sources of long-run growth. We show that intangibles have been a relevant source of growth across European countries and that they cannot be omitted from national accounts. In particular, the ―unexplained‖ component of macro-economic dynamics, the Total Factor Productivity, becomes less important, while physical capital turns out to be strongly complementary with intangible capital.

Over the last two decades Italy registered notable improvements in the functioning of labour market. However, such improvements have been accompanied by a deterioration in terms of productivity and competitiveness. This paper provides some evidence in this respect evaluating to what extent labour market reforms might have influenced the poor productivity performance of the Italian economy over the period 1980-2008. We show that labour market deregulation had a negative effect on aggregate labour productivity through both the within and the reallocative components. Our results show that the increased flexibility in the use of temporary contract has led to a lower productivity (level and to a lesser extent growth rate) in all sectors, with a higher impact on those industries with a higher flexibility need. Conversely, the use of temporary contracts has a significant lower effect in industries with higher skill content. The negative effect of the reforms on the reallocative capacity is stronger in those industries with a higher flexibility need that are also the relatively lower productivity sectors in the period 1993-2008.

The requirements of the current “knowledge-based economy” and the contribution of Information and Communication Technology (Ict) to socio-economic change are very likely to have a significant impact upon regional differentials in the European Union. So far, however, it is rather unclear whether the new paradigm will spur greater socioeconomic cohesion or, on the contrary, stronger territorial polarisation. This paper focuses on the distribution of Italian Ict – producing small and medium enterprises and on the relationship between some structural variables – regional location and industrial sector – and labour productivity levels. The aim is to shed some light on the role that Tic productions might have with respect to the regional divide of the Italian economy, traditionally among the most striking in the European area.

The Italian economy is often said to be on a declining path. In this paper, we document that: (i) Italy's current decline is a labor productivity problem (ii) the labor productivity slowdown stems from declining productivity growth in all industries but utilities (with manufacturing contributing for about one half of the reduction) and diminished interindustry reallocation of workers from agriculture to market services; (iii) the labor productivity slowdown has been mostly driven by declining TFP, with roughly unchanged capital deepening. The only mild decline of capital deepening is due to the rise in the value added share of capital that counteracted declining capital accumulation.

The paper presents a growth accounting exercise for the Italian economy over the last twenty years to assess the role of primary inputs and total factor productivity. The exercise was run at both the aggregate and the disaggregated level. For the first time in Italy it used a measure of capital services, disaggregated into several different components. Special attention was paid to the accumulation of ICT capital goods. A productive capital stock database was prepared, disaggregated by asset and sector, and the respective user costs, adjusted for fiscal factors, were calculated. In the period 1981-2001 total factor productivity contributed for less than one fourth to the Italian economic growth, and in the second half of the nineties TFP decelerated significantly. The largest contribution to economic activity was made by capital formation and specifically by assets not directly linked to new technologies, whose contribution was very small. The service sector, in particular transport and communications and financial intermediation, contributed most to the growth of TFP. In financial intermediation sector the role played by ICT capital was very substantial.

Many measures of the impact of Information and Comunication Technology (ICT) on growth have been provided for the United States; much fewer analyses have been proposed for European countries, due also to scarcity of disaggregated data. In this paper we make use of very detailed sectoral data for Italy to study both the aggregate evolution and the sectoral diffusion of ICT investment expenditure during the 1990s. In the aggregate we find that the 1992 recession strongly halted ICT investment, and only in 1999 the Italian economy recovered the same rate of ICT capital formation. Second, mixed evidence on diffusion is shown by the sectoral expenditure on ICT capital goods: although the ICT fraction of total investment has increased in all the relevant macro-sectors (industry, commerce and advances services), the number of total sectors investing in ICT has not risen between 1992 and 2000. Finally, an econometric analysis of sectoral ICT determination shows that, besides capital intensity and interest rates, R&D expenditure is a strong predictor of ICT investment expenditure. Hence, since R&D-intensive sectors are usually associated with the highest growth potential, ICT expenditure by those sectors may trigger a virtuous growth dynamics.

The aim of this paper is to identify the stage of IT adoption in individual European economies, and to analyse the determinants of IT investment in a panel of EU countries. We first analyse the dynamics of IT investment expenditure in 15 European countries from 1992 until 2001 and, by means of a cluster analysis, we draw a picture of IT diffusion in Europe. By clustering the European countries according to their shares of IT spending over GDP, we identify three fairly stable groups of fast, medium and slow adopters. We then build an econometric equation of the determinants of IT investment to be estimated with panel data for five European economies over 1980-2001. We consider both aggregate IT investment, and investment in hardware or software taken alone. Financial conditions, income growth and comparative advantage turn out to affect IT investment, but we find that the determinants of hardware investment only partially overlap with those of software.

There is now a large consensus that both the production and the use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) have contributed substantially to the aggregate productivity revival in the United States in the late 1990s. The technological revolution has now involved also Italy; therefore it is fundamental to quantify the impact of ICT on the Italian production system. The growth-accounting framework is widely used to deal with such issues. To develop this kind of analysis it is crucial to have a measure of the flow of capital services provided by ICT capital goods. In this paper, referring to the standard neoclassical approach to capital services measurement, we calculate the productive capital stock, the flow of capital services provided by ICT and non-ICT capital goods and their contributions to the growth of total capital services. We provide the estimate of productive capital stocks for a detailed asset-type classification system and we report both aggregate and industry level results for the Italian economy in the last twenty years. We find that even if ICT Italian investment expenditure grew at a considerable pace in the last twenty years, its growth it is still small if compared with total investment expenditure. However, our results show that its contribution to the growth of total capital input is not negligible when capital input is measured in terms of flow of capital services. Our results in terms of productive capital stock partially confirm the importance of ICT capital accumulation for capital input growth in Italy in the second half of the 90s with respect to 1980-95 time period. Our findings are that in terms of ICT contribution to the growth of total capital services, the 80's were as much "ICT oriented" as the 90's.