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Motivation Transcription in single cells is an inherently stochastic process as mRNA levels vary greatly between cells, even for genetically identical cells under the same experimental and environmental conditions. We present a stochastic two-state switch model for the population of mRNA molecules in single cells where genes stochastically alternate between a more active ON state and a less active OFF state. We prove that the stationary solution of such a model can be written as a mixture of a Poisson and a Poisson-beta probability distribution. This finding facilitates inference for single cell expression data, observed at a single time point, from flow cytometry experiments such as FACS or fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) as it allows one to sample directly from the equilibrium distribution of the mRNA population. We hence propose a Bayesian inferential methodology using a pseudo-marginal approach and a recent approximation to integrate over unobserved states associated with measurement error. Results We provide a general inferential framework which can be widely used to study transcription in single cells from the kind of data arising in flow cytometry experiments. The approach allows us to separate between the intrinsic stochasticity of the molecular dynamics and the measurement noise. The methodology is tested in simulation studies and results are obtained for experimental multiple single cell expression data from FISH flow cytometry experiments. Availability and implementation All analyses were implemented in R. Source code and the experimental data are available at https://github.com/SimoneTiberi/Bayesian-inference-on-stochastic-gene-transcription-from-flow-cytometry-data. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Identification of those at greatest risk of death due to the substantial threat of COVID-19 can benefit from novel approaches to epidemiology that leverage large datasets and complex machine-learning models, provide data-driven intelligence, and guide decisions such as intensive-care unit admission (ICUA). The objective of this study is two-fold, one substantive and one methodological: substantively to evaluate the association of demographic and health records with two related, yet different, outcomes of severe COVID-19 (viz., death and ICUA); methodologically to compare interpretations based on logistic regression and on gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) predictions interpreted by means of the Shapley impacts of covariates. Very different association of some factors, e.g., obesity and chronic respiratory diseases, with death and ICUA may guide review of practice. Shapley explanation of GBDTs identified varying effects of some factors among patients, thus emphasising the importance of individual patient assessment. The results of this study are also relevant for the evaluation of complex automated clinical decision systems, which should optimise prediction scores whilst remaining interpretable to clinicians and mitigating potential biases.

Motivation Transcription in single cells is an inherently stochastic process as mRNA levels vary greatly between cells, even for genetically identical cells under the same experimental and environmental conditions. We present a stochastic two-state switch model for the population of mRNA molecules in single cells where genes stochastically alternate between a more active ON state and a less active OFF state. We prove that the stationary solution of such a model can be written as a mixture of a Poisson and a Poisson-beta probability distribution. This finding facilitates inference for single cell expression data, observed at a single time point, from flow cytometry experiments such as FACS or fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) as it allows one to sample directly from the equilibrium distribution of the mRNA population. We hence propose a Bayesian inferential methodology using a pseudo-marginal approach and a recent approximation to integrate over unobserved states associated with measurement error. Results We provide a general inferential framework which can be widely used to study transcription in single cells from the kind of data arising in flow cytometry experiments. The approach allows us to separate between the intrinsic stochasticity of the molecular dynamics and the measurement noise. The methodology is tested in simulation studies and results are obtained for experimental multiple single cell expression data from FISH flow cytometry experiments. Availability and implementation All analyses were implemented in R. Source code and the experimental data are available at https://github.com/SimoneTiberi/Bayesian-inference-on-stochastic-gene-transcription-from-flow-cytometry-data. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Motivation Transcription in single cells is an inherently stochastic process as mRNA levels vary greatly between cells, even for genetically identical cells under the same experimental and environmental conditions. We present a stochastic two-state switch model for the population of mRNA molecules in single cells where genes stochastically alternate between a more active ON state and a less active OFF state. We prove that the stationary solution of such a model can be written as a mixture of a Poisson and a Poisson-beta probability distribution. This finding facilitates inference for single cell expression data, observed at a single time point, from flow cytometry experiments such as FACS or fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) as it allows one to sample directly from the equilibrium distribution of the mRNA population. We hence propose a Bayesian inferential methodology using a pseudo-marginal approach and a recent approximation to integrate over unobserved states associated with measurement error. Results We provide a general inferential framework which can be widely used to study transcription in single cells from the kind of data arising in flow cytometry experiments. The approach allows us to separate between the intrinsic stochasticity of the molecular dynamics and the measurement noise. The methodology is tested in simulation studies and results are obtained for experimental multiple single cell expression data from FISH flow cytometry experiments. Availability and implementation All analyses were implemented in R. Source code and the experimental data are available at https://github.com/SimoneTiberi/Bayesian-inference-on-stochastic-gene-transcription-from-flow-cytometry-data. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.