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Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Environmental & Social Management Journal / Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental is the property of Environmental & Social Management Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Taking a sample of 24 OECD countries, using a cointegrated panel, empirical evidence is provided at group and individual level of the positive effect of spending on research, development and innovation on economic growth during the 2000-2019 period. Assuming that patents act as a proxy for innovation and using the ordinary least squares dynamic estimator, the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship is corroborated by which, and in per capita terms, an increase of 1.0% in the stock of patents generates an increase in GDP of 0.52%. Similarly, an increase in R&D spending of 1.0% translates into GDP growth of 1.27%. Additionally, by implementing a Granger causality test for a panel, a positive and significant relationship is found between R&D spending and the stock of patents, patent stock and economic growth, and R&D spending and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainability of socio-economic and industrial systems is a key concern, particularly within the framework of the 2030 agenda. A holistic understanding of the functioning and relationships of these systems is essential if we want to implement practical actions to achieve sustainability. This study uses econometric techniques, such as the distributed lag autoregressive model, to explore the interactions between industrial and environmental factors and the unemployment rate. The variables analyzed include working hours, wage costs, and tropospheric ozone concentration, over two periods: 2008-2020 (reduced period) and 2008-2024 (extended period). Between both periods, substantial differences have been found in the variables significantly influencing the unemployment rate. The significance of working hours and ozone (O3) concentration, determinants of the unemployment rate in the reduced period, are replaced by wage costs, determining the unemployment rate in the extended period. The results show that an initial increase in worked hours reduces unemployment, while wage increases and high levels of O3 tend to increase the unemployment rate. Granger causality analysis suggests bidirectional relationships between unemployment, wage costs, and O3 concentration, highlighting the connection between the different aspects and feedback collateral effects. The study underscores the need for balanced socioeconomic policies that promote both economic growth and environmental sustainability and the promotion of fostering of technological innovations. The importance of policies that mitigate the adverse effects of wage increases on employment is underlined, and that favor a more sustainable development model capable of decoupling economic well-being from intensive resource consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

La inversión en transporte se usa a menudo como herramienta de urbanización y desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, aún se debate si las mejoras en transporte promocionan el desarrollo y la urbanización o, por el contrario, éstas últimas crean las condiciones que impulsan el transporte. En teoría, el sistema de transporte contribuye al desarrollo y urbanización porque agiliza el intercambio de bienes y servicios, pero los efectos también podrían ser a la inversa, por lo que la dirección de causalidad no se identifica tan fácilmente. Este trabajo se basa en información estatal de México agrupada en panel para conocer la magnitud y dirección de los impactos durante 1988-2018. La metodología consiste en pruebas de cointegración y regresiones VECM. Los resultados revelan que la causalidad de largo plazo va de desarrollo económico a transporte y sus subsectores, lo que significa que en México el desarrollo económico es una condición necesaria para modernizar el transporte. Con urbanización, la causalidad y magnitud de los efectos varían dependiendo del subsector de transporte. Las inversiones en la economía total y el sector pasajeros causan urbanización, pero transporte total y los subsectores de carga y comunicaciones estiman causalidad bidireccional. Se concluye que la urbanización depende de las mejoras en transporte y este, a su vez, del desarrollo económico.

Copyright of Panorama Económico (1870-2171) is the property of Economic Panorama Magazine / Revista Panorama Economico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This research analyzes the impact of investment in Research and Development (R&D) and the number of researchers on the economic growth of some of the economies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), for the period 1996-2016. A causality analysis in the sense of Granger is performed and a panel data model is estimated. Data are obtained from the World Bank. There is empirical evidence of bidirectional causality between R&D and GDP per capita, but predominantly R&D Granger-causes GDP. Bidirectional causality is also found between the number of researchers and GDP per capita, but predominantly GDP Granger-causes the number of researchers. While the dynamic panel model of the MGM system in one stage shows that economic growth is positively affected by investment in R&D and the number of researchers. This work differs from others in the following aspects: 1) it considers a sample of 25 OECD countries in the period 1996-2016; 2) there is a greater availability of data, and 3) a dynamic panel data analysis is carried out that allows the use of a greater number of countries, variables and periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

En esta investigación se estudió la causalidad en el sentido unidireccional de Granger, desde el índice Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker hacia la volatilidad del mercado accionario chileno, la cual se modela por un procedimiento autorregresivo condicional. Se aplican tres pruebas de causalidad y, de manera complementaria, la prueba de bicorrelación cruzada. Los resultados indican que este índice causa la volatilidad del mercado con la mayoría de las pruebas aplicadas. Esto señala la potencial relevancia de contar con este nuevo indicador para los agentes que participan en los mercados financieros, entre ellos reguladores, compañías y corredores. Adicionalmente, los resultados son congruentes con la evidencia sobre la capacidad predictiva del índice sobre la volatilidad del precio del petróleo y otros índices

Copyright of Revista Espacios is the property of Talleres de Impresos Oma and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of REUNIR: Revista de Administração, Contabilidade e Sustentabilidade is the property of REUNIR - Revista de Administracao, Contabilidade e Sustentabilidade and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we have analyzed the sensitivity of the aggregate volume of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) in Brazil to fluctuations (shocks) in the Economic Uncertainty level from 2010 to 2021 under behavioral and neoclassical theoretical foundations on the M&A causes. We estimated a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with the volume of M&A announcements, the Brazil Economic Uncertainty Index (IIE-Br), and macroeconomic and market variables. There is evidence that the M&A announcements in Brazil can respond positively to an economic uncertainty shock. Thus, we contribute with empirical evidence to understand the role of macroeconomic factors, including economic uncertainty, in the future conduct of the M&A market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Este documento analiza cómo la volatilidad en los precios de los granos básicos, arroz, maíz y trigo, influyen sobre la seguridad alimentaria. Para esto, se estudió el mercado de estos productos mediante los modelos de varianza condicional heterocedástica: simétricos y asimétricos. Entre los resultados, se encontró evidencia que, ante un escenario internacional volátil, los precios de granos básicos a nivel doméstico se elevarán, repercutiendo de manera negativa a toda la cadena de transformación mediante el incremento en los precios finales de los productos procesados. A nivel social, este escenario genera un efecto restricción sobre la población al reducir el acceso de los alimentos a menor precio.

Copyright of Estudios Gerenciales is the property of Universidad ICESI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

En Colombia existen centros tradicionales de acopio donde se comercializan y distribuyen productos agrícolas. El precio de venta de estos productos es publicado por instituciones del Gobierno en informes semanales. Con el objetivo de determinar si las series de precios siguen una caminata aleatoria y si existen relaciones entre los centros, se aplican seis pruebas que evalúan la hipótesis de eficiencia débil y la prueba de causalidad de Granger. Para ello se analiza el precio histórico semanal de 28 productos agrícolas comercializados en seis mercados, durante la primera semana de 2013 a la última de 2017. Los principales resultados indican que los mercados tienden a la eficiencia, aunque no tienen el mismo nivel, ya que esta varía según el producto que se comercialice. Además, los centros en Manizales, Barranquilla y Villavicencio influyen sobre los precios de los mercados de Bogotá, Bucaramanga y Medellín.

This study examines the dynamic nexus betwixt oil prices, twenty-two world agricultural commodity prices and given the evolution of the relative strength of the US dollar in a panel setting. We use panel cointegration and Panel Granger causality methods for a panel of twenty-two agricultural products based on annual observations ranging from 1980 to 2015. The empirical results provide a strong evidence of long-term relationship between Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices and Real USD Exchange Rate. Contrary to the findings of many studies in the literature that report neutrality of agricultural prices to oil price changes, we find strong support of bi-directional causal linkages among Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices and Real USD Exchange Rate. The long-run causality analysis thereby implies that the oil prices and the dollar have a predictive power to forecast the agricultural prices, which could be a good tool to prioritize the allocation of resources across industries to ensure agricultural scenario in general and economic outcomes. || Este estudio examina la relación dinámica entre los precios del petróleo del mundo y veintidós precios de las materias primas agrícolas del mundo que explican cambios en la fuerza relativa del dólar estadounidense en un panel. Empleamos los métodos de cointegración de panel y de la causalidad de Granger para un panel de veintidós productos agrícolas basados en las observaciones anuales que se extienden de 1980 a 2015. Los resultados empíricos proporcionan una prueba evidente de la relación a largo plazo entre los precios de las materias primas agrícolas, los precios del petróleo y el tipo de cambio real del dólar estadounidense. Al contrario de los hallazgos en muchos estudios en la literatura que exponen la neutralidad de los precios agrícolas frente a los cambios en el precio del petróleo, nosotros encontramos un fuerte respaldo a la existencia de acoplamientos causales bidireccionales entre precios de las materias primas agrícolas, precios del petróleo y el tipo de cambio real del dólar estadounidense. El análisis a largo plazo de la causalidad, de este modo, implica que los precios del petróleo y del dólar tienen un poder profético para prever los precios agrícolas, que podrían ser una buena herramienta para priorizar la asignación de recursos a través de industrias para asegurar el escenario agrícola en general y los resultados económicos.

To what extent do geopolitical tensions, supply disturbances, and unexpected news in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major oil-producer countries affect the oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware of these tensions? Do these tensions affect forecasters' consensus when making their predictions? Is there a difference between news coming from OPEC countries versus other major oil exporters? In this article, we analyse the influence of geopolitical tensions, news, and events in major oil producers on the Brent oil price, its forecasts, and the dispersion of those forecasts. We empirically test these hypotheses by introducing and making use of a unique media-based measure of geopolitical tensions accounting for supply crunches and expansions for the 2001-12 period, by means of Granger causality. We found evidence suggesting that overall geopolitical tensions affect the current level of oil price, its forecasts, and the dispersion of those forecasts. More remarkably, when separating between OPEC and non-OPEC news, we found that the former affect oil price forecasts and its consensus, and at the same time, the current oil price determine oil-based news on OPEC countries. Moreover, non-OPEC news affect the current and future oil price level and neither the forecast nor the dispersion of those forecasts its affected by the level. All these results imply that geopolitical tensions in a broader sense affect oil prices, and OPEC news should be read jointly with other geopolitical tensions as oil price drivers -and not as an isolated news generator affecting oil prices. This weakens the hypothesis of OPEC as a price setter in the global oil market whose behaviour, in turn, seems a matter for forecasters. These results are important suggesting that, in order to keep track of oil price dynamics, one needs to account for a more general context of geopolitical tensions beyond OPEC countries, relying on signals and externalities that are not necessarily based on economic rationale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, aimed at non-specialist researchers in time series analysis, we discuss the scope and limitations of the tests of Granger causality. These tests have been gaining a growing acceptance over the last three decades. However, the conclusions accompanying the results of the respective application do not always agree with the meaning of the concept of Granger causality. We revisit this meaning as well as the axiomatic body that sustains it and establish comparisons with alternative meanings for the concept of causality. We then discuss the limitations of the techniques of timeseries analysis in general and of the tests of Granger causality in particular. We conclude that these tests do not allow to determine, on their own, whether the variables analyzed are effectively linked together through causal relationships in the current sense of the expression, i.e. the cause-effect type or in some way susceptible to manipulation or control. Finally, we present some relevant implications and advice for researchers in social sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Nóesis: Revista de Ciencias Sociales is the property of Revista Noesis and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Economía Coyuntural, Revista de Temas de Coyuntura y Perspectivas is the property of Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales Jose Ortiz Mercado (IIES-JOM) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

La literatura empírica presenta diversos resultados acerca del impacto que tiene el gasto público sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) de los países en general. Este artículo presenta evidencia sobre el impacto que tiene dicho gasto sobre el PIB en 24 departamentos de Colombia, durante el periodo 1984-2012. Además, se aplica una prueba de causalidad con datos de panel con el fin de determinar si la relación se sustenta mediante el enfoque keynesiano o el enfoque wagneriano. A través de un modelo de datos de panel cointegrado, se obtiene esta relación y se estiman los coeficientes de la relación de equilibrio de largo plazo. Los resultados muestran un efecto positivo y significativo del gasto público primario sobre el PIB, lo cual va en la vía del enfoque keynesiano y confirma la hipótesis de que aumentos en el gasto público contribuyen al crecimiento económico.

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of TURyDES is the property of TURYDES and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Diversos autores afirman que el desarrollo del sistema financiero, en general, y de los mercados financieros, en particular, dependen del desarrollo económico del país, ya que como consecuencia del crecimiento de la economía real aumentarán las necesidades de servicios financieros y de financiación de proyectos productivos. Existe otra corriente a través de la que se establece que el crecimiento de la economía real depende, en parte, del desarrollo del sistema financiero. El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar un modelo econométrico estructural para analizar la influencia del desempeño del mercado de capitales sobre el crecimiento de la economía mexicana, teniendo en cuenta los principales determinantes del crecimiento de la economía real. Se considera el horizonte temporal comprendido entre abril de 2000 y agosto de 2010, y se obtiene que el desempeño del mercado de capitales de México tiene un peso similar en el crecimiento de la economía nacional al que tiene la disminución en la tasa de desempleo y es prácticamente tres veces mayor al que ejercen las remesas en el crecimiento económico real. Además, su impacto es considerablemente mayor al que tiene la inversión en ciencia y tecnología y al que tiene la balanza comercial.

The objective of the article is to determine the causal relationship and measure the impact between investment in port infrastructure and regional economic growth for 10 macro-regions of Peru and Chile during the period 2004-2016. For this, a cointegration analysis is used for a data panel, as well as an error correction model and a Granger causality analysis. Empirical evidence shows that there is a bidirectional causality in the short term of investment in port infrastructure towards economic growth and a unidirectional relationship in the long term of investment in port infrastructure towards economic growth. Likewise, the impact found is that an increase of USD 1 million in investment in port infrastructure generates an increase of USD 56.11 in regional GDP per capita. On the other hand, it was found that there are asymmetric effects in the short term of greater investment in port infrastructure on GDP per capita. In this way, a smaller effect is evident in the macro-regions of Peru.

The objective of this article is to verify the achievement of Wagner's Law opposed to the Keynesian hypothesis relating to public disbursement in Peru. For that, we analyzed the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in the period between 1950-2016. By estimating an econometric model of cointegration and Granger causality tests, we obtained the results, which show that in the short term the Keynesian hypothesis as to the public charge will be accomplished, however, in the long-term the situation is opposite and will satisfy the Wagner's Law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El presente trabajo analiza la relación entre los retornos diarios de precios y el volumen de transacción mediante un análisis de causalidad de Granger y, adicionalmente, el efecto día de la semana en los mercados accionarios latinoamericanos para el período 1998-2014. Los índices bursátiles analizados son los de Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú. Este estudio utiliza modelos de varianza heterocedástica y vectores autorregresivos (VAR). Los resultados indican la presencia de un fuerte efecto día de semana en el volumen, así como evidencia de causalidad de los retornos de los índices sobre la variación del volumen de transacción para la mayoría de los mercados analizados.

This research aims to investigate within the scope of the Brazilian stock market the cause and effect relationship between the accounting rate-of-return (ROE) and the return of the stock market (RET) in Brazil. Analyzes temporal precedence and looks for evidence on predictive capacity. The study is based on an empirical investigation of the cause and effect relationship between the accounting rate-of-return (ROE) and the stock market return (RET), using the Granger causality test. The sample for the study is formed with the data of the companies listed on the BM&FBovespa from 1995 to 2009 in quarterly frequency extracted from the Economática database. The results indicate that, in general, there is no evidence of causality between RET and ROE in either direction. It is not possible to indicate in these cases temporal precedence. This demonstrates the low power of improvement of the forecast variance with the inclusion of one of the variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Lecturas de Economia is the property of Universidad de Antioquia, Facultad de Ciencias Economicas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper we analyze intra-industrial trade along twenty years into nafta, with the assumptions of constant returns to scale and intensive production factors in labor for México and capital for the United States. Such trade is analyzed through intra-industry trade index and the standard revealed comparative absolute advantage index. Also, composition, cause and inertial features of Mexican exports and imports are studied with the vector error correction analysis and Granger causality test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Economía (Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán) is the property of Universidad Autonoma de Yucatan, Facultad de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Este trabajo contiene una revisión crítica de los principales estudios econométricos que se han ocupado del análisis de la relación de causalidad entre el turismo y el crecimiento económico de largo plazo. Los artículos incluidos realizan un test de cointegración de variables económicas y estudian la causalidad de Granger. Este trabajo muestra que en los casos revisados existe una fuerte evidencia empírica a favor de la hipótesis del turismo como generador del crecimiento económico de largo plazo. No obstante, esto no permite extraer conclusiones de carácter general sobre las implicaciones políticas y de planificación.

¿El ahorro causa el crecimiento como sugiere el enfoque de la oferta, o el crecimiento impulsa el ahorro como afirma el enfoque keynesiano basado en la demanda? Como ambos enfoques predicen la correlación entre estas variables, la evidencia en este sentido no apoya ninguna hipótesis en particular. Para dilucidar qué enfoque tiene más capacidad explicativa, se estimaron test de causalidad à la Granger para Argentina durante 1914-2003 entre las variables ahorro, inversión y crecimiento. Se concluyó que el ahorro no causa el crecimiento, mientras que por el contrario, el crecimiento causa el ahorro. Al incorporar la inversión en las estimaciones los resultados se mantuvieron, pero se ajustan mejor al relato histórico del período, brindando confianza acerca de la validez de los resultados. Estos coinciden con recientes investigaciones empíricas y con el mecanismo de transmisión keynesiano basado en la demanda. Se aplicaron diferentes técnicas incluyendo el procedimiento de Toda y Yamamoto. Does savings causes growth as supply side economics holds? Or instead, growth drives savings as keynesian demand side economics states? Both approaches predict a close correlation between savings and growth so, veryfing the empirical relation between these variables does not support any of the approaches. To find out which of these theories is more closely related to reality, we ran a Granger causality tests between saving, investment and growth for the case of Argentina during the 1914-2003 period. We found robust evidence that savings does not Granger cause growht, while on the contrary, growht causes savings. The same result holds when investment is included in the tests, but these results match up closer to the historic characterization of each period. This match brings confidence about these findings, which also agree with recent research and with the causal relation that keynesian demand side economics supports. Estimations were done using different techniques including the new Toda and Yamamoto procedure.

Este trabajo analiza los efectos a largo plazo entre la demanda de transporte aéreo y el crecimiento económico en Chile. Utilizando datos trimestrales de 1986 (T1) a 2014 (T29), el estudio investiga la posible relación de causalidad entre el pib real y el número de pasajeros aéreos que llegan y salen de los aeropuertos chilenos. Por medio de la cointegración de Johansen, se muestra la existencia de un vector de cointegración en el que las correspondientes elasticidades son positivas. El estudio muestra que la relación de causalidad es positiva y bidireccional. A su vez, el análisis de impulso-respuesta, muestra que un incremento en la magnitud del movimiento de pasajeros produce un efecto positivo en el crecimiento económico en el país.

Copyright of Regional Studies is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper reports time series evidence on the influence of financial deepening on growth and its volatility, for the cases of Mexico and the USA. The paper contributes to the existing empirical literature in two relevant aspects. First, it focuses on two closely interconnected economies but quite different in terms of economic and financial development. Second, it uses time series methods to examine the relation between financial development and the volatility of growth. We find that, in the case of the USA, financial and money deepening seem to affect real output growth, but finance does not show a significant relation with growth volatility. In the case of Mexico, economic growth seems to precede financial deepening, while money deepening and output growth interact. We also find some evidence that financial deepening reduces the volatility of growth. This, in turn, leads to more rapid output growth. Further, faster growth in the USA may result in faster growth in Mexico not only directly, a fact that is well known, but also through a reduction of Mexico's growth volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Studies is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Regional Studies is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Se evalúa la viabilidad de formar una unión monetaria en América Latina. En primer lugar, analizamos los tipos de cambio reales efectivos mediante cointegración y causalidad de Granger, encontramos evidencia que respalda una unión monetaria compuesta por Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Paraguay. En segundo lugar, se investiga el grado de heterogeneidad en la transmisión de la política monetaria dentro de la unión monetaria hipotética. Se encuentran considerables asimetrías en los niveles de pass-through de las tasas de interés lo que indica la necesidad de reformas sustanciales antes de considerar una unión monetaria en América Latina.