Search

As today's engineering systems have become increasingly sophisticated, assessing the efficacy of their safety‐critical systems has become much more challenging. The more classical methods of "failure" analysis by decomposition into components related by logic trees, such as fault and event trees, root cause analysis, and failure mode and effects analysis lead to models that do not necessarily behave like the real systems they are meant to represent. These models need to display similar emergent and unpredictable behaviors to sociotechnical systems in the real world. The question then arises as to whether a return to a simpler whole system model is necessary to understand better the behavior of real systems and to build confidence in the results. This question is more prescient when one considers that the causal chain in many serious accidents is not as deep‐rooted as is sometimes claimed. If these more obvious causes are not taken away, why would the more intricate scenarios that emanate from more sophisticated models be acted upon. The paper highlights the advantages of modeling and analyzing these "normal" deviations from ideality, so called weak signals, versus just system failures and near misses as well as catastrophes. In this paper we explore this question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Causal-chain windowing is a kind of cognitive process of having the sense of causality in mind, and the cause and result are windowed and attract the attention. Given the appropriate context, the reader can infer the remainder of the event, and different expressions of the same scene, windowed in several different ways, may result in different effects on readers’ mind. Therefore causal-chain windowing theory is useful for the teaching of writing, relating to not only static descriptions as expositional writing, but also dynamic ones as narrative writing, through proper application of the theory. Although many previous linguists and teachers have applied many other theories to the teaching of writing from several angles, few have applied causal-chain windowing theory to the teaching of writing. And the author aims to find a relatively new angle in the old topic – teaching of writing. This paper sets about from some key notions and introduces causal-chain windowing theory, and applies the latter in two aspects, windowing of attention and causal chain. The paper attempts to illustrate the advantages of applying causal-chain windowing theory to the teaching of writing with some examples and claims that causal-chain windowing theory gives clues to writing “different” articles. The aspect of windowing of attention directs students to change sentence patterns and paragraph constructions, and the other aspect, causal chain, leads them to use proper words to express right causal relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Rechtsmedizin is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Various unexpected, low-probability events can have short or long-term effects on organizations and the global economy. Hence there is a need for appropriate risk management practices within organizations to increase their readiness and resiliency, especially if an event may lead to a series of irreversible consequences. One of the main aspects of risk management is to analyze the levels of change and risk in critical variables which the organization's survival depends on. In these cases, an awareness of risks provides a practical plan for organizational managers to reduce/avoid them. Various risk analysis methods aim at analyzing the interactions of multiple risk factors within a specific problem. This paper develops a new method of variability and risk analysis, termed R.Graph, to examine the effects of a chain of possible risk factors on multiple variables. Additionally, different configurations of risk analysis are modeled, including acceptable risk, analysis of maximum and minimum risks, factor importance, and sensitivity analysis. This new method's effectiveness is evaluated via a practical analysis of the economic consequences of new Coronavirus in the electricity industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

P-graph causality maps were recently proposed as a methodology for systematic analysis of intertwined causal chains forming network-like structures. This approach uses the bipartite representation of P-graph to distinguish system components ("objects" represented by O-type nodes) from the functions they perform ("mechanisms" represented by M-type nodes). The P-graph causality map methodology was originally applied for determining structurally feasible causal networks to enable a desirable outcome to be achieved. In this work, the P-graph causality map methodology is extended to the analysis of vicious networks (i.e., causal networks with adverse outcomes). The maximal structure generation algorithm is first used to assemble the problem elements into a complete causal network; the solution structure generation algorithm is then used to enumerate all structurally feasible causal networks. Such comprehensive analysis gives insights on how to deactivate vicious networks through the removal of keystone objects and mechanisms. The extended methodology is illustrated with an ex post analysis of the 1984 Bhopal industrial disaster. Prospects for other applications to sustainability issues are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As today's engineering systems have become increasingly sophisticated, assessing the efficacy of their safety-critical systems has become much more challenging. The more classical methods of "failure" analysis by decomposition into components related by logic trees, such as fault and event trees, root cause analysis, and failure mode and effects analysis lead to models that do not necessarily behave like the real systems they are meant to represent. These models need to display similar emergent and unpredictable behaviors to sociotechnical systems in the real world. The question then arises as to whether a return to a simpler whole system model is necessary to understand better the behavior of real systems and to build confidence in the results. This question is more prescient when one considers that the causal chain in many serious accidents is not as deep-rooted as is sometimes claimed. If these more obvious causes are not taken away, why would the more intricate scenarios that emanate from more sophisticated models be acted upon. The paper highlights the advantages of modeling and analyzing these "normal" deviations from ideality, so called weak signals, versus just system failures and near misses as well as catastrophes. In this paper we explore this question., (© 2023 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.)

Accurately describing and evaluating the effects of unsafe acts on maritime accidents is critical to establishing practical accident prevention and control options. This paper proposes a framework for the probabilistic analysis of maritime accidents caused by seafarers’ unsafe acts by incorporating a navigation simulation and dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) modeling. First, the unsafe acts of seafarers are identified according to an in-depth analysis of global maritime investigation reports. Then, a navigation simulation experiment is designed to collect the ship-handling data of seafarers during hazardous accident scenarios. Consequently, a dynamic probabilistic model is proposed using a DBN to describe the phases of maritime accidents based on the navigation simulation experiment data. Furthermore, an evolution analysis of maritime accidents is conducted to explore the causal chain of such accidents through sensitivity analysis. The typical navigational accident-collision is chosen as the case to interpret the proposed framework, considering the formation process of ship collision risks, from the occurrence of ship collision risk (phase 1) to the close-quarters situation (phase 2) and to immediate danger (phase 3). This framework is applied to explore the causal chain of collision accidents caused by the unsafe acts of seafarers.

Since the 1990s, the relationship between xiqu illustration and stage performance in the Ming dynasty has attracted increased scholarly attention. The conclusions, "performing in accordance with pictures" and "drawing in accordance with performances", have almost become a self-evident consensus in the history of ancient Chinese printmaking. However, if we re-examine this issue from an interdisciplinary perspective of art history and theatre history, we will find that it is a pseudo-proposition raised to meet specific standards. Xiqu actors did not "perform in accordance pictures", which was booksellers' advertising strategy. On the other hand, the problem of "drawing in accordance with performances" is that scholars are eager to establish a causal chain between the similarities of language format, character movements and composition style, but deliberately avoid the inner reasoning of art history. Just like illustrations of other genres, xiqu illustrations in the Ming dynasty were delineations that imitate scenes of life rather than stage performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Anesthesia has become safer during decades, though there is still a preventable mortality; the complexity of medical and surgical interventions, increasingly older and sicker patients, has created a host of new hazards in anesthesiology. In this paper, some of these perioperative (PO) fatal adverse events are investigated in terms of health responsibility. Selective literature research in several data bases, concerning perioperative and anesthetic deaths and medical responsibility, was performed. Main text A generally accepted definition of the anesthesia and perioperatory-related death still remains one of the major concerns in forensic pathology, and the terms “operative deaths” and “anesthetic deaths” are usually applied inaccurately within the medico-legal literature. Such events involve comprehensively PO fatalities and allow for subtle separation of natural and unnatural death, at least from the prospective of forensic pathology. Iatrogenic deaths in this field can be separated into some major categories, as attributable to previous patient’s unfavorable conditions or depending from surgical procedure per se (such as PO cardiac and cerebrovascular events). In this review, the authors carried out syntheses of specific research areas regarding epidemiology, complications of general and spinal anesthetic, failure in airway management and patient’s circulatory homeostasis, and adverse drugs reactions; analysis considering the challenge of anesthetic-related mortality, epidemiology and classifications, by indicating causal chain of death, in respect of both contributing and associated anesthetic and surgery facts. Conclusions Perioperative quality control programs and its relevance for medico-legal evaluation are emphasized as, although mortality rates have decreased worldwide over the last decades, however, preventable drug-related deaths still happen. Such fatal events have to be considered within the field of forensic pathology experts, with regard of malpractice claims, to implement a strategy for preventing potentially fatal complications.

The interaction between intensive animal production and the environment is complex and depends on the location and management practices. The waste generated from intensive animal production may represent a triggering factor for environmental pressures in the function of the volume and the characteristics, degrading environmental quality and affecting ecosystem services. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework for the environmental description of the impacts caused by the accumulation of the waste from intensive animal production, integrating the causal-chain approach of the driver–pressure–status–impact–response (DPSIR) model with the causal network and ecosystem services. Therefore, a conceptual framework was developed that makes possible a comprehensive description of a set of structures and functions that interact in complex ways. The conceptual framework was validated through a case study performed within the scope of a hydrographic microbasin with intensive pig production. The conceptual framework developed made it possible to establish connections among the DPSIR components, including environmental perceptions and changes in the socioeconomic system. The impacts caused by the waste were considered as changes in the provision of ecosystem services and the socioeconomic system, identifiable in the proposed conceptual framework. The application of the conceptual framework identified the primary drivers that exert pressure on the system and has an impact on the ecosystem services, affecting the provision and regulation services. The development of this environmental conceptual framework contributes to the selection of the indicators and ecosystem services involved. This can aid in the promotion of environmental sustainability, providing subsidies for more adequate environmental policies obtained from indicators that reflect local conditions.

Copyright of Romanica Olomucensia is the property of Palacky University in Olomouc and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The present study attempted to understand pro-environmental behaviours among university students in the developing country of Iran. The Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theoretical framework was used in this study. Data were obtained from 295 agricultural students at Bu- Ali Sina University using a self-administered survey. The data were then analyzed using the Partial Least Squares approach. The structural equation modelling findings showed that the VBN theory model could effectively be applied for the prediction of pro-environmental behaviour among university students in non-Western and developing countries, which in turn affirmed the validity of this theory in intercultural settings. The variables' causal order in the VBN theory likewise was affirmed, i.e. each individual variable had a significant relationship with the next variable throughout the causal chain. Furthermore, as hypothesized, variables mediated relationships between their antecedent and outcome variables in the causal chain. These results suggest that the VBN theory is a useful framework for understanding proenvironmental behaviours in a non-Western developing country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide, transportation authorities are keen to implement sustainable development measures and to move toward a more sustainable mobility for people and goods. However, this implementation entails a rise in the need for a sustainable development assessment framework for mobility, in order to compare different projects or to monitor a given area. This paper addresses the issue of conceptualization and standardization of the evaluation of sustainable development in transportation, by proposing a framework, which seeks to meet the various needs of transportation planners. This framework aims to provide an exhaustive view of the sustainability features (through its three main dimensions), as well as to clarify the concept of sustainability in transportation by embedding links between actions and impacts. This paper presents the basis of the framework developed as an interactive tool: (1) a representation named ‘Octopus’ categorizing the impact of mobility on the three dimensions of sustainable development and (2) a circular representation, named ‘Causal circle’, which integrates causal links between actions and impacts on these same dimensions. First published online 29 March 2016

Doctrine of novus actus interveniens (NAI) sometimes plays an important role as a tool of defense in medical negligence suits. It is a Latin phrase which means breakage of the causal chain at some point, relieving the initial wrongdoer. In medical negligence suits, the appearance of an external factor or event in the causal chain and the outcome is not directly related to the negligence of the doctor, but for the novel agent; the doctrine of NAI can be applied and the initial wrongdoer, i.e., the treating physician can be exempted. Autopsy of a similar type of case was performed in a tertiary care hospital in the State of Chhattisgarh. The autopsy findings identified a new factor in the form of dereliction in duty by another physician causing breakage of the chain in the current case described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]