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Background Population-wide screening for melanoma is not cost-effective, but genetic characterization could facilitate risk stratification and targeted screening. Common Melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) red hair colour (RHC) variants and Microphthalmia-associated transcription factor (MITF) E318K separately confer moderate melanoma susceptibility, but their interactive effects are relatively unexplored. Objectives To evaluate whether MC1R genotypes differentially affect melanoma risk in MITF E318K+ vs. E318K– individuals. Materials and methods Melanoma status (affected or unaffected) and genotype data (MC1R and MITF E318K) were collated from research cohorts (five Australian and two European). In addition, RHC genotypes from E318K+ individuals with and without melanoma were extracted from databases (The Cancer Genome Atlas and Medical Genome Research Bank, respectively). χ2 and logistic regression were used to evaluate RHC allele and genotype frequencies within E318K+/– cohorts depending on melanoma status. Replication analysis was conducted on 200 000 general-population exomes (UK Biobank). Results The cohort comprised 1165 MITF E318K– and 322 E318K+ individuals. In E318K– cases MC1R R and r alleles increased melanoma risk relative to wild type (wt), P < 0.001 for both. Similarly, each MC1R RHC genotype (R/R, R/r, R/wt, r/r and r/wt) increased melanoma risk relative to wt/wt (P < 0.001 for all). In E318K+ cases, R alleles increased melanoma risk relative to the wt allele [odds ratio (OR) 2.04 (95% confidence interval 1.67–2.49); P = 0.01], while the r allele risk was comparable with the wt allele [OR 0.78 (0.54–1.14) vs. 1.00, respectively]. E318K+ cases with the r/r genotype had a lower but not significant melanoma risk relative to wt/wt [OR 0.52 (0.20–1.38)]. Within the E318K+ cohort, R genotypes (R/R, R/r and R/wt) conferred a significantly higher risk compared with non-R genotypes (r/r, r/wt and wt/wt) (P < 0.001). UK Biobank data supported our findings that r did not increase melanoma risk in E318K+ individuals. Conclusions RHC alleles/genotypes modify melanoma risk differently in MITF E318K– and E318K+ individuals. Specifically, although all RHC alleles increase risk relative to wt in E318K– individuals, only MC1R R increases melanoma risk in E318K+ individuals. Importantly, in the E318K+ cohort the MC1R r allele risk is comparable with wt. These findings could inform counselling and management for MITF E318K+ individuals.

An increasing number of people develop more than 1 primary melanoma, yet to date, no population-based prospective cohort studies have reported on risk factors for developing first vs second primary melanomas.To compare the clinical characteristics of first and second melanomas and then to estimate the relative risks of developing 1 vs multiple melanomas associated with demographic, phenotypic, sun exposure, and genetic factors.This population-based prospective cohort study included men and women aged 40 to 69 years recruited in 2011 and followed up until December 2018 in Queensland, Australia. Data analysis was performed from February to July 2022.Self-reported information about demographic, phenotypic, and sun exposure measures captured using a survey completed at baseline, and polygenic risk score for melanoma.Incident first or second primary melanoma diagnosis, and histologic and clinical characteristics thereof. The Wei-Lin-Weissfeld model for recurrent events was used to estimate the association of each factor with the risks of first and second primary melanoma.A total of 38 845 patients (mean [SD] age at baseline, 56.1 [8.2] years; 17 775 men and 21 070 women) were included in the study. During a median follow-up period of 7.4 years, 1212 (3.1%) participants had a single primary melanoma diagnosis, and 245 (0.6%) had a second primary melanoma diagnosis. Second melanomas were more likely than first melanomas to be in situ; for invasive tumors, second melanomas were more likely to be thin (ie, ≤1 mm) than first melanomas. Having many moles at age 21 years (self-reported using visual scoring tool) was more strongly associated with second (hazard ratio [HR], 6.36; 95% CI, 3.77-10.75) than first primary melanoma (HR, 3.46; 95% CI, 2.72-4.40) (P value for difference between the HRs = .01). A high genetic predisposition (ie, polygenic risk score in tertile 3) was also more strongly associated with second (HR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.06-5.23) than first melanoma (HR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.71-2.49; P = .03). Second melanomas were more strongly associated with a history of multiple skin cancer excisions (HR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.80-3.83) than first melanomas (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.61-2.16; P = .05). For all other phenotypic characteristics and sun exposure measures, similarly elevated associations with first vs second melanomas were observed.Findings of this cohort study suggest that within the general population, the presence of many nevi and having a high genetic predisposition to melanoma were associated with the highest risks of developing second primary melanomas.

Organ transplant recipients (OTRs) are at greater risk of basal cell carcinomas (BCCs) than non-OTRs, but histopathologic differences between BCCs in OTRs and the general population are largely unknown. We compared clinicopathologic features of BCCs in OTRs vs the general population in Queensland, Australia. Details of BCC tumors (site, size, level of invasion, subtype, biopsy procedure) were collected from histopathology reports in two prospective skin cancer studies, one in OTRs and one general-population-based. We used log-binomial regression models to estimate age- and sex-adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for BCC features. Overall, there were 702 BCCs in 200 OTRs and 1725 BCCs in 804 population cases. Of these, 327 tumors in 128 OTRs were higher risk BCCs (any head and neck BCC; ≥ 2 cm on trunk/extremities), more per person than 703 higher risk BCCs in 457 cases in the general population (chi-square p = 0.008). Among head/neck BCCs, OTRs were more likely than general population cases to have BCCs on scalp/ear than on face/lip/neck (PR = 1.5, 95%CI 1.2–1.8). Although aggressive subtypes were less common among higher risk BCCs in OTRs, BCCs invading beyond the dermis were almost twice as prevalent in OTRs (PR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.3–2.6) than the general population.

Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common and highly heterogeneous psychiatric disorder but little is known about the genetic characterisation of this heterogeneity. Understanding the genetic etiology of MDD can be challenging as large sample sizes are needed for gene discovery – often achieved with a trade-off in the depth phenotyping. Methods The Australian Genetics of Depression Study is the largest stand-alone depression cohort with both genetic data and in-depth phenotyping and comprises a total of 15,792 participants of European ancestry, 92% of whom, met diagnostic criteria for MDD. We leveraged the unique nature of this cohort to conduct a meta-analysis with the largest depression GWAS to date and subsequently used polygenic scores (PGS) to investigate genetic heterogeneity across various clinical subtypes of MDD. Results We increased the number of known genome-wide significant variants associated with depression from 103 to 126 and found evidence of association of novel genes implicated in neuronal development. We show that a PGS for depression explains 5.7% of variance in MDD liability in our sample. Lastly, we find strong support for genetic heterogeneity in depression with differential associations of multiple psychiatric and comorbid traits with age of onset, longitudinal course and various subtypes of MDD. Conclusions Until now, this degree of detailed phenotyping in such a large sample of MDD cases has not been possible. Along with discovery of novel loci, we provide support for differential pathways to illness models that recognize both the overlap with other common psychiatric disorders, as well as pathophysiological differences.

Epidemiologic research has shown convincingly that certain phenotypic attributes are associated with increased relative risks of melanoma. Although such findings have intrinsic utility, there have been few attempts to translate such knowledge into estimates of disease burden suitable for framing public health policy. We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) for melanoma associated with melanocytic nevi using relative risk estimates derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis. We identified eligible studies using citation databases, followed by manual review of retrieved references. Of 49 studies identified, 25 and 23, respectively, were included in meta-analyses of atypical and common nevi. For people with ≥1 atypical nevi, the summary relative risk was 3.63 (95% confidence interval, 2.85-4.62), with a PAF of 0.25. The relative risk increased by 1.017 (95% confidence interval, 1.014-1.020) for each common nevus; however, significant heterogeneity in risk estimates was observed. We estimated that 42% of melanomas were attributable to having ≥25 common nevi (PAF 25-49 nevi = 0.15; PAF ≥50 nevi = 0.27), whereas PAFs for low nevus counts were modest (PAF 0-10 nevi = 0.04; PAF 11-24 nevi = 0.07). We modeled PAF under scenarios of varying nevus prevalence; the highest melanoma burden was always among those with high nevus counts (PAF range of 0.31-0.62 for ≥25 common nevi). Patients with ≥25 common nevi and/or ≥1 atypical nevi are a high-risk group, which might be targeted for identification, screening, and education. This work is the necessary first step in designing targeted preventive strategies for melanoma, which must now be overlaid with information about cost and utility. Cancer Prev Res; 3(2); 233–45

Supplementary Table 1 from Estimating the Attributable Fraction for Cancer: A Meta-analysis of Nevi and Melanoma

Background: Despite a large body of literature evaluating the association between recreational physical activity and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk, the extant evidence is inconclusive, and little is known about the independent association between recreational physical inactivity and EOC risk. We conducted a pooled analysis of nine studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium to investigate the association between chronic recreational physical inactivity and EOC risk.Methods: In accordance with the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, women reporting no regular, weekly recreational physical activity were classified as inactive. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to estimate the ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between inactivity and EOC risk overall and by subgroups based upon histotype, menopausal status, race, and body mass index.Results: The current analysis included data from 8,309 EOC patients and 12,612 controls. We observed a significant positive association between inactivity and EOC risk (OR = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.14–1.57), and similar associations were observed for each histotype.Conclusions: In this large pooled analysis examining the association between recreational physical inactivity and EOC risk, we observed consistent evidence of an association between chronic inactivity and all EOC histotypes.Impact: These data add to the growing body of evidence suggesting that inactivity is an independent risk factor for cancer. If the apparent association between inactivity and EOC risk is substantiated, additional work via targeted interventions should be pursued to characterize the dose of activity required to mitigate the risk of this highly fatal disease. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(7); 1114–24. ©2016 AACR.

Supplemental Table S1. Pooled Odds Ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals Representing the Association Between Physical Inactivity and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer by Menopause Status. Supplemental Table S2. Age-Adjusted And Multivariable-Adjusted Pooled Odds Ratios And 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) Representing The Association Between Physical Inactivity And Epithelial Ovarian Cancer By Race. Supplemental Table S3. Pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals representing the association between physical inactivity and epithelial ovarian cancer by standard BMI classification. Supplemental Table S4. Pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals representing the association between physical inactivity and epithelial ovarian cancer by dichotomous BMI classification

Because little is known about cataract in pilots, we estimated prevalence by anonymously ascertaining all commercial airline pilots diagnosed with cataract 2011–2016 using the electronic Medical Records System of the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority. Of 14,163 Australian male commercial pilots licensed in 2011, 1286 aged ≥60 had biennial eye examinations showing a cataract prevalence of 11.6%. Among 12,877 pilots aged

Distinctions between major depressive disorder (MDD) and perinatal depression (PND) reflect varying views of PND, from a unique etiological subtype of MDD to an MDD episode that happens to coincide with childbirth. This case-control study investigated genetic differences between PND and MDD outside the perinatal period (non-perinatal depression or NPD).We conducted a genome-wide association study using PND cases (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale score ≥ 13) from the Australian Genetics of Depression Study 2018 data (n = 3804) and screened controls (n = 6134). Results of gene-set enrichment analysis were compared with those of women with non-PND. For six psychiatric disorders/traits, genetic correlations with PND were evaluated, and logistic regression analysis reported polygenic score (PGS) association with both PND and NPD.Genes differentially expressed in ovarian tissue were significantly enriched (stdBeta = 0.07, p = 3.3e-04), but were not found to be associated with NPD. The genetic correlation between PND and MDD was 0.93 (SE = 0.07; p = 3.5e-38). Compared with controls, PGS for MDD are higher for PND cases (odds ratio [OR] = 1.8, confidence interval [CI] = [1.7-1.8], p = 9.5e-140) than for NPD cases (OR = 1.6, CI = [1.5-1.7], p = 1.2e-49). Highest risk is for those reporting both antenatal and postnatal depression, irrespective of prior MDD history.PND has a high genetic overlap with MDD, but points of distinction focus on differential expression in ovarian tissue and higher MDD PGS, particularly for women experiencing both antenatal and postpartum PND.

Funding Information: We acknowledge all the participants and researchers of the 23 biobanks that have contributed to the GBMI. Biobank-specific acknowledgments are included in the Data S3 . We thank H. Huang, A.R. Martin, B.M. Neale, Y. Okada, K. Tsuo, J.C. Ulirsch, Y. Wang, and all the members of Finucane and Daly labs for their helpful feedback. M.K. was supported by a Nakajima Foundation Fellowship and the Masason Foundation . H.K.F. was funded by NIH grant DP5 OD024582 . Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s) Meta-analysis is pervasively used to combine multiple genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Fine-mapping of meta-analysis studies is typically performed as in a single-cohort study. Here, we first demonstrate that heterogeneity (e.g., of sample size, phenotyping, imputation) hurts calibration of meta-analysis fine-mapping. We propose a summary statistics-based quality-control (QC) method, suspicious loci analysis of meta-analysis summary statistics (SLALOM), that identifies suspicious loci for meta-analysis fine-mapping by detecting outliers in association statistics. We validate SLALOM in simulations and the GWAS Catalog. Applying SLALOM to 14 meta-analyses from the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI), we find that 67% of loci show suspicious patterns that call into question fine-mapping accuracy. These predicted suspicious loci are significantly depleted for having nonsynonymous variants as lead variant (2.7×; Fisher's exact p = 7.3 × 10−4). We find limited evidence of fine-mapping improvement in the GBMI meta-analyses compared with individual biobanks. We urge extreme caution when interpreting fine-mapping results from meta-analysis of heterogeneous cohorts.

We sought to explore several ethical issues relating to opportunistic detection of melanoma, given current controversies in melanoma control. We suggest that these should be considered in conjunction with the quantitative yardsticks that accompany decision-making about disease detection. Researchers should focus on capturing and providing evidence to support decision-making for patients and their doctors.

Objective: To determine the test‐retest repeatability of a self‐completed survey with items capturing skin cancer risk factors. Methods: We invited 238 randomly selected participants of the QSkin II cohort to complete the baseline survey a second time. Responses were compared using kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficients to quantify agreement for categorical and continuous variables, respectively. We compared the performance of key items with that observed in an earlier repeatability study using the same survey instrument in an independent cohort. Results: Measures of phenotypic characteristics had moderate to almost‐perfect test‐retest repeatability (e.g. eye colour weighted kappa (κw) = 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81, 0.92). Items measuring sun exposure showed lower agreement (κw range 0.36‐0.54) compared with phenotypic characteristics (κw range 0.59‐0.87). Items relating to treatment of skin cancers demonstrated almost‐perfect test‐retest repeatability (e.g. excisions for skin cancers κw 0.85, 95%CI: 0.80, 0.89). In aggregate, the repeatability of key items was very similar across the two independent repeatability samples. Conclusion: Fair to almost‐perfect repeatability for self‐reported skin cancer risk factors was robust across independent and temporally distant cohorts. Implications for public health: These self‐assessed risk factors for skin cancer are repeatable and suitable for use in clinical practice and research.

ObjectiveGastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has heterogeneous aetiology primarily attributable to its symptom-based definitions. GERD genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have shown strong genetic overlaps with established risk factors such as obesity and depression. We hypothesised that the shared genetic architecture between GERD and these risk factors can be leveraged to (1) identify new GERD and Barrett’s oesophagus (BE) risk loci and (2) explore potentially heterogeneous pathways leading to GERD and oesophageal complications.DesignWe applied multitrait GWAS models combining GERD (78 707 cases; 288 734 controls) and genetically correlated traits including education attainment, depression and body mass index. We also used multitrait analysis to identify BE risk loci. Top hits were replicated in 23andMe (462 753 GERD cases, 24 099 BE cases, 1 484 025 controls). We additionally dissected the GERD loci into obesity-driven and depression-driven subgroups. These subgroups were investigated to determine how they relate to tissue-specific gene expression and to risk of serious oesophageal disease (BE and/or oesophageal adenocarcinoma, EA).ResultsWe identified 88 loci associated with GERD, with 59 replicating in 23andMe after multiple testing corrections. Our BE analysis identified seven novel loci. Additionally we showed that only the obesity-driven GERD loci (but not the depression-driven loci) were associated with genes enriched in oesophageal tissues and successfully predicted BE/EA.ConclusionOur multitrait model identified many novel risk loci for GERD and BE. We present strong evidence for a genetic underpinning of disease heterogeneity in GERD and show that GERD loci associated with depressive symptoms are not strong predictors of BE/EA relative to obesity-driven GERD loci.

Background: Keratinocyte cancer is the commonest cancer, imposing a high economic burden on the health care system. Observational studies have shown mixed associations between polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and keratinocyte cancer, basal cell carcinoma (BCC), and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). We explored whether genetically predicted PUFA levels are associated with BCC and SCC risks. Methods: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization study using PUFA level genome-wide association studies (GWAS) from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium (n > 8,000), and the meta-analysis GWASs from UKB, 23andMe, and Qskin for BCC (n = 651,138) and SCC (n = 635,331) risk. Results: One SD increase in genetically predicted levels of linoleic acid [OR = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.91–0.97, P = 1.4 × 10–4] and alpha-linolenic acid (OR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.86–0.96, P = 5.1 × 10–4) was associated with a reduced BCC risk, while arachidonic acid (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02–1.06, P = 3.2 × 10–4) and eicosapentaenoic acid (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04–1.16, P = 1.5 × 10–3) were associated with an increased BCC risk. Conclusions: Higher genetically predicted levels of linoleic acid and alpha-linolenic acid were associated with a reduced BCC risk, but arachidonic acid and eicosapentaenoic acid were associated with a higher BCC risk. Impact: PUFA-related diet and supplementation could influence BCC etiology.

We sought to describe trends in the incidence of invasive melanoma by histological subtype and thickness in two populations with different approaches to the early detection of melanoma (the US White population and Queensland, Australia). The incidence of thick melanoma (> 4.00 mm) increased over the period 1999–2018 at a faster rate than thinner melanomas in both populations, and the increase was driven primarily by increases in melanoma of the nodular subtype. Thin melanomas (< 1.00 mm) were overwhelmingly of the superficial spreading subtype, whereas thick melanomas (> 4.00 mm) were dominated by nodular melanomas.

Introduction: Organ transplant recipients (OTRs) have an elevated risk of developing keratinocyte cancer (KC). We have previously shown that a KC polygenic risk score (PRS) effectively triages OTRs for KC risk, with 50% of transplantees with high genetic risk developing KC within 3 years of follow up. However, readiness for clinical application of the KC PRS, its application to triage OTRs in the clinic and the return of the genetic risk information have not yet been assessed. Objectives: 1) To evaluate patients’ readiness to receive genetic risk information for KC risk stratification in a lung transplant clinic. 2) To assess whether returning the PRS results to patients influences skin cancer screening, incidence, and sun protection behavior. Methods: We recruited 100 lung transplantees from the Prince Charles Hospital in Queensland into the ASCOT prospective study. We assessed their attitude, knowledge, and perceptions of genetic testing for KC risk stratification. We also collected genetic data. We developed a KC risk stratification pipeline, and triaged the transplantees. PRS results and KC prevention advice were returned to the high risk group. All transplantees are being followed-up for sun protection and screening behaviors, and skin cancer outcomes. Results: 50% of OTRs were highly likely to accept genetic testing for KC risk stratification. Following transplantation, there was a drastic change in the perception of KC risk and severity, and the majority of transplantees considered it a major health concern. Using the PRS pipeline, 40 patients were triaged into the high risk category for KC, and received their PRS results and health advice, and we are prospectively assessing whether this will influence skin cancer screening rates, skin cancer incidence, and sun protection behavior in this group. Findings will be shared. Conclusion: There is positive patient-readiness to receive genetic risk information for KC risk stratification among transplantees. High-risk patients are currently being followed-up for KC outcomes and prevention service uptake including screening, and sun protection behaviors. Citation Format: Mathias Seviiri, Matthew H. Law, Peter Hopkins, Catherine M. Olsen, David C. Whiteman, Stuart MacGregor. Clinical implications for returning polygenic risk information for skin cancer to ultra-high risk organ transplant recipients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 781.

Background Cutaneous melanomas are common cancers in white-skinned populations, and early detection is promoted as a means of reducing morbidity and mortality. There is concern that increased skin screening is leading to overdiagnosis of indolent melanomas with low risk of lethality. The extent of melanoma overdiagnosis associated with screening is unknown. Objectives To estimate possible overdiagnosis by comparing subsequent melanoma incidence and biopsy rates among people subjected to skin screening those who were not. Methods We recruited 43 762 residents of Queensland, Australia, aged 40–69 years, with no prior history of melanoma, selected at random from a population register in 2010. At baseline, participants completed a comprehensive melanoma risk factor survey and were asked if their skin had been examined by a doctor in the 3 years prior to baseline. We calculated incidence and relative risk of histologically confirmed melanoma (invasive and in situ) in years 2–7 of follow-up, obtained through linkage to the cancer registry. In secondary analyses, we measured biopsy rates in years 2–6 of follow-up. We used propensity score analysis to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results In total, 28 155 participants underwent skin screening prior to baseline. We observed 967 first-incident melanomas (381 invasive) during 197 191 person-years of follow-up. Those screened had higher rates of melanoma (aHR 1·29, 95% CI 1·02–1·63) and subsequent skin biopses (aHR 1·85, 95% CI 1·69–2·04) than unscreened participants. The higher risk associated with skin screening was evident for in situ melanoma (aHR 1·45, 95% CI 1·09–1·92) but not invasive melanoma (aHR 1·05, 95% CI 0·72–1·54). In secondary analyses, where screening was defined as having a skin biopsy in the first year after baseline, we observed significantly increased risks of melanoma (aHR 1·53, 95% CI 1·23–1·89) and subsequent biopsies (aHR 2·64, 95% CI 2·46–2·84) relative to those who did not have a biopsy. Conclusions People who undergo skin screening subsequently experience higher rates of biopsies and melanoma (especially in situ melanoma), even after adjusting for all known risk factors, consistent with overdiagnosis. What is already known about this topic? Cutaneous melanomas are common cancers in white-skinned populations for which early detection is promoted as a means of reducing morbidity and mortality.There is concern that increased surveillance is leading to the overdiagnosis of indolent melanomas that are not destined to be lethal.The extent of melanoma overdiagnosis associated with surveillance is not known. What does this study add? People subjected to skin examinations by a doctor or who undergo skin biopsies subsequently have higher numbers of biopsies and higher rates of melanoma than people not subjected to either, even after adjusting for all known risk factors.These findings suggest that heightened surveillance leads to a proportion of melanomas being diagnosed that otherwise may not have come to clinical attention.

BackgroundAlthough there are well-known prognostic factors for survival from cutaneous melanoma (CM) such as primary tumour thickness and stage of the tumour at diagnosis, the role of germline genetic factors in determining survival is not well understood.ObjectiveTo perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of melanoma-specific survival (MSS), and test whether a CM-susceptibility polygenic risk score (PRS) is associated with MSS.MethodsWe conducted two Cox proportional-hazard GWAS of MSS using data from the Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA; 5,762 patients with melanoma; 800 deaths from melanoma) and UK Biobank (UKB: 5,220 patients with melanoma; 241 deaths from melanoma). The GWAS were adjusted for age, sex and the first ten genetic principal components, and combined in a fixed-effects inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Significant (P−8) results were investigated in the Leeds Melanoma Cohort (LMC; 1,947 patients with melanoma; 370 melanoma deaths). We also developed a CM-susceptibility PRS using a large independent GWAS meta-analysis (23,913 cases, 342,870 controls). The PRS was tested for an association with MSS in the MIA and UKB cohorts, with replication in the LMC.ResultsTwo loci were significantly associated with MSS in the meta-analysis of MIA and UKB with lead SNPs rs41309643 (G allele frequency 1.6%, hazard ratio [HR] 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.61-2.71, P=2.08×10−8) on chromosome 1, and rs75682113 (C allele frequency 1.8%, HR=2.38, 95% CI=1.77—3.21, P=1.07×10−8) on chromosome 7. While neither SNP replicated (P>0.05) in the LMC, rs75682113 was significantly associated in the combined discovery and replication sets and requires confirmation in additional cohorts.After adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex and the first ten principal components, a one standard deviation increase in the CM-susceptibility PRS was associated with improved MSS in the discovery meta-analysis (HR=0.88, 95% CI=0.83—0.94, P=6.93×10−5; I2=88%). The association with the PRS was not replicated (P > 0.05) in LMC, but remained significantly associated with MSS in the meta-analysis of the discovery and replication results.ConclusionWe found two loci potentially associated with MSS, and evidence that increased germline genetic susceptibility to develop CM may be associated with improved MSS.

Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand have the highest incidence of melanoma and KC in the world. We undertook a cost-of-illness analysis using Markov decision–analytic models separately for melanoma and keratinocyte skin cancer (KC) for each country. Using clinical pathways, the probabilities and unit costs of each health service and medicine for skin cancer management were applied. We estimated mean costs and 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI) using Monte Carlo simulation. In Australia, the mean first-year costs of melanoma per patient ranged from AU$644 (95%UI: $642, $647) for melanoma in situ to AU$100,725 (95%UI: $84,288, $119,070) for unresectable stage III/IV disease. Australian-wide direct costs to the Government for newly diagnosed patients with melanoma were AU$397.9 m and AU$426.2 m for KCs, a total of AU$824.0 m. The mean costs per patient for melanoma ranged from NZ$1450 (95%UI: $1445, $1456) for melanoma in situ to NZ$77,828 (95%UI $62,525, $94,718) for unresectable stage III/IV disease. The estimated total cost to New Zealand in 2021 for new patients with melanoma was NZ$51.2 m, and for KCs, was NZ$129.4 m, with a total combined cost of NZ$180.5 m. These up-to-date national healthcare costs of melanoma and KC in Australia and New Zealand accentuate the savings potential of successful prevention strategies for skin cancer.

Background The literature surrounding survival of patients with multiple primary melanomas (MPM) yields variable and opposing findings, constrained by statistical challenges. Objectives To critically examine the available literature regarding survival of patients with MPM compared with a single primary melanoma and detail statistical methods used. Methods Electronic searches were performed of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus, with cross-checking of references, for the period January 1956 to June 2019. Studies published in English examining survival in patients with multiple melanomas were included. Case studies and small case series were excluded. Results There were 14 studies eligible for inclusion. Conclusions on survival varied markedly depending on the statistical method used. Four studies that accounted for survival bias by partitioning the survival time were included in the quantitative review, with 3 of these reporting a survival disadvantage for MPM, whereas the fourth showed no difference in survival. The pooled hazard ratio was 1.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.81) but with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 96.8%, Phet Limitations Studies showed significant heterogeneity in methodology. Conclusion When data were analyzed with robust statistical methods, patients with MPM had a survival disadvantage compared with patients with a single primary melanoma.

Background Height and body mass index (BMI) have both been positively associated with melanoma risk, although findings for BMI have been less consistent than height. It remains unclear, however, whether these associations reflect causality or are due to residual confounding by environmental and lifestyle risk factors. We re-evaluated these associations using a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Methods We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for BMI and height from separate genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses. We obtained melanoma SNPs from the most recent melanoma GWAS meta-analysis comprising 12 874 cases and 23 203 controls. We used the inverse variance-weighted estimator to derive separate causal risk estimates across all SNP instruments for BMI and height. Results Based on the combined estimate derived from 730 SNPs for BMI, we found no evidence of an association between genetically predicted BMI and melanoma [odds ratio (OR) per one standard deviation (1 SD) (4.6 kg/m2) increase in BMI 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91–1.11]. In contrast, we observed a positive association between genetically-predicted height (derived from a pooled estimate of 3290 SNPs) and melanoma risk [OR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02–1.13, per 1 SD (9.27 cm) increase in height]. Sensitivity analyses using two alternative MR methods yielded similar results. Conclusions These findings provide no evidence for a causal association between higher BMI and melanoma, but support the notion that height is causally associated with melanoma risk. Mechanisms through which height influences melanoma risk remain unclear, and it remains possible that the effect could be mediated through diverse pathways including growth factors and even socioeconomic status.