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Critical infrastructure (CI) services are crucial to the functioning of modern communities, and a single CI failure can cause cascading effects through a network of services, impacting an entire city. Challenges such as climate change and rapid urbanisation are increasing the risk of cascading effects of CI failure, particularly impacting the urban poor in peri-urban and informal settlements. This study uses a systems thinking approach to validate the hypothesis if CI services are susceptible to generating severe cascading effects in informal than formal settlements. Qualitative data was collected on cascading effects via interviews and focus group discussion in a formal and an informal settlement in Medellin, Colombia. The responses were analysed and structured using a service chain framework and a Causal Loop Diagram. Our findings show that cascading effects vary between the formal and informal contexts concerning CI service availability and accessibility and may be attributed to differences in demography, geography, socio-economic development, risk regulations, community coping capacities and other factors associated with urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To successfully conserve and restore agrobiodiversity, it is essential to understand the impact of multiple drivers and interlinkages across multiple taxa that occur above, across, and below the soil interface. Based on data from six agricultural landscapes in Central Germany, with 16 sampling plots per landscape, we used structural equation models to disentangle the impacts of climate, land-use, and soil factors on the diversity of multiple taxonomic groups. We expected belowground communities (soil bacteria and fungi) to be more driven by soil variables, mobile aboveground groups (wild bees, ground beetles) to be more driven by climate and land use, and vascular plants, that have an above- and belowground component, to respond to a combination of all factors. According to our expectations, climate and land-use variables had an important role in shaping aboveground and plant communities. In contrast to our expectations, soil characteristics were of lesser importance for belowground organisms. Moreover, climatic factors had a strong impact on the soil microbiome, but this effect was indirect, modulated by soil pH. We also found indications for cascading effects of environmental factors via interlinkages within and among the above- and belowground communities. Our results highlight the importance of direct and indirect effects of multiple drivers on the diversity of multiple taxonomic groups and support recent calls for a multifunctional approach for sustainable landscape management and nature restoration, suggesting to focus on the promotion of semi-natural habitats but also considering the climatic context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, entrepreneurial orientation (EO) has emerged as a key concept in the management literature, with various studies demonstrating its positive effects on important firm-level outcomes. However, our understanding of whether and how EO shapes dynamics within organizations is still underdeveloped. Thus, by integrating EO and social information–processing theories, this study develops and tests a cross-level contingency model that describes how and when EO cascades through an organization—bridging firm, supervisor, and employee levels. We conducted a three-source, three-wave study involving 280 supervisors and 1,214 employees from 94 organizations to test our model. The results show that firm-level EO is positively related to employees' creative performance and that supervisors' and employees' passion for inventing serves as the central serial mediators for these links. The results also reveal that these cascading effects of EO do not occur unconditionally but depend on an important boundary condition—that is, the extent to which supervisors identify with their organizations. A follow-up study of 238 supervisors from various firms provides further support for the social information–processing perspective of our model. It shows that the link between firm EO and supervisors' passion for inventing is mediated by perceived normative expectations for creativity. Taken together, these findings offer a new perspective on the internal dynamics of EO, uncover a crucial boundary condition, and provide insights for the effective implementation of EO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary processes span multiple hierarchical levels, with nested causality. Punctuated evolutionary changes occur unevenly as a result of environmental conditions and multiscale feedback across hierarchical levels. Slow evolution among interconnected units (e.g., molecules and organisms) can trigger abrupt changes at higher organizational levels (e.g., species and ecosystems). Punctuated evolution is evident in biological and cultural evolution, abrupt extinctions, biodiversity crashes, evolution of the pathogens, and technological change. Understanding punctuated evolution aids in developing more effective strategies for the conservation of biodiversity in the face of significant anthropogenic impacts. For five decades, paleontologists, paleobiologists, and ecologists have investigated patterns of punctuated equilibria in biology. Here, we step outside those fields and summarize recent advances in the theory of and evidence for punctuated equilibria, gathered from contemporary observations in geology, molecular biology, genetics, anthropology, and sociotechnology. Taken in the aggregate, these observations lead to a more general theory that we refer to as punctuated evolution. The quality of recent datasets is beginning to illustrate the mechanics of punctuated evolution in a way that can be modeled across a vast range of phenomena, from mass extinctions hundreds of millions of years ago to the possible future ahead in the Anthropocene. We expect the study of punctuated evolution to be applicable beyond biological scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To successfully conserve and restore agrobiodiversity, it is essential to understand the impact of multiple drivers and interlinkages across multiple taxa that occur above, across, and below the soil interface. Based on data from six agricultural landscapes in Central Germany, with 16 sampling plots per landscape, we used structural equation models to disentangle the impacts of climate, land-use, and soil factors on the diversity of multiple taxonomic groups. We expected belowground communities (soil bacteria and fungi) to be more driven by soil variables, mobile aboveground groups (wild bees, ground beetles) to be more driven by climate and land use, and vascular plants, that have an above- and belowground component, to respond to a combination of all factors.According to our expectations, climate and land-use variables had an important role in shaping aboveground and plant communities. In contrast to our expectations, soil characteristics were of lesser importance for belowground organisms. Moreover, climatic factors had a strong impact on the soil microbiome, but this effect was indirect, modulated by soil pH. We also found indications for cascading effects of environmental factors via interlinkages within and among the above- and belowground communities. Our results highlight the importance of direct and indirect effects of multiple drivers on the diversity of multiple taxonomic groups and support recent calls for a multifunctional approach for sustainable landscape management and nature restoration, suggesting to focus on the promotion of semi-natural habitats but also considering the climatic context.

Lifelines are critical infrastructure systems characterized by a high level of interdependency that can lead to cascading failures after any disaster. Many approaches can be used to analyze infrastructural interdependencies, but they are usually not able to describe the sequence of events during emergencies. Therefore, interdependencies need to be modeled also taking into account the time effects. The methodology proposed in this paper is based on a modified version of the Input-output Inoperability Model and returns the probabilities of failure for each node of the system. Lifelines are modeled using graph theory, while perturbations, representing a natural or man-made disaster, are applied to the elements of the network following predetermined rules. The cascading effects among interdependent networks have been simulated using a spatial multilayer approach, while the use of an adjacency tensor allows to consider the temporal dimension and its effects. The method has been tested on a case study based on the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster. Different configurations of the system have been analyzed and their probability of occurrence evaluated. Two models of the nuclear power plant have been developed to evaluate how different spatial scales and levels of detail affect the results.

The sustainability of social–ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social–ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foundation species such as seagrasses modulate critical ecosystem processes, promote biodiversity, and structure community spatial and temporal dynamics. Hence, they play a key role in mediating the response of biodiversity to environmental changes. The breadth of their contribution to biodiversity maintenance and the potential cascading effects of their alteration remain unclear as we lack a comprehensive understanding of the intricate mechanisms governing their response to environmental changes and that of their associated fauna. Indeed, the mechanisms involved are often studied in isolation or at scales that only provide incomplete representations of the complex functioning of these ecosystems. This study aimed to clarify the direct and indirect relationships linking the environment, seagrass, and their associated faunal assemblages, using structural equation modeling (SEM). To this end, we review the literature to derive theoretical models of the functioning of seagrass ecosystems and test them using long‐term monitoring data covering 14 years of nine different Zostera marina seagrass beds across 500 km of coastline. We show that contradictory relationships and ambiguities regarding seagrass–biodiversity relationships emerge from the currently available literature (covering experimental, observational, and modeling studies). The SEM approach allowed us to clarify these direct and indirect relationships and resolve most ambiguities. In particular, we show that seagrass mediates the effect of the environment on its associated communities. However, this mediating effect is different, both qualitatively and quantitatively, for epifauna and infauna. Unexpectedly, the diversity of benthic macrofauna appeared to be controlled and promoted by the biomass rather than by the shoot density of the seagrass beds. We also provide quantitative estimates for the direct and cascading pathways linking seagrass biodiversity to environmental changes. Overall, by synthesizing, clarifying, and quantifying the multiple relationships linking a foundation species such as seagrass to its environment and associated biodiversity, we contribute to a better understanding of seagrass meadows functioning and help predict the potential consequences of foundation species alteration on their associated fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems. Moreover, various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs. Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system (PS) and natural gas system (NGS) when a disturbance happens in one system, a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system. Especially under extreme conditions, this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance, resulting in catastrophic failures. Therefore, there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather. Following this development trend, an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms. First, a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions. Furthermore, an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS. Meanwhile, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components. Moreover, time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms. Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.

Foraging decisions shape the structure of food webs. Therefore, a behavioural shift in a single species can potentially modify resource‐flow dynamics of entire ecosystems. To examine this, we conducted a field experiment to assess foraging niche dynamics of semi‐arboreal brown anole lizards in the presence/absence of predatory ground‐dwelling curly‐tailed lizards in a replicated set of island ecosystems. One year after experimental translocation, brown anoles exposed to these predators had drastically increased perch height and reduced consumption of marine‐derived food resources. This foraging niche shift altered marine‐to‐terrestrial resource‐flow dynamics and persisted in the diets of the first‐generation offspring. Furthermore, female lizards that displayed more risk‐taking behaviours consumed more marine prey on islands with predators present. Our results show how predator‐driven rapid behavioural shifts can alter food‐web connectivity between oceanic and terrestrial ecosystems and underscore the importance of studying behaviour‐mediated niche shifts to understand ecosystem functioning in rapidly changing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intercropping approach of Eucalyptus and native trees has been widely recommended, as an ideal replacement for monoculture Eucalyptus plantations (EUs), to ameliorate global biodiversity loss and mitigate environmental change. However, both suitable native tree species (NS) and the best intercropping ratio between Eucalyptus and native trees have not been determined.To fill this gap, a four‐level intercropping gradient of Eucalyptus urophylla planted with eight NS was set up (i.e., 20%NS, 30%NS, 40%NS, 50%NS), monitored and compared with a monoculture E. urophylla plantation (EU) and a randomly mixed plantation of nine NS in southern China.The results showed that, the intercropping ratio of Eucalyptus and native trees had a long‐term effect on tree layer structure and health status, and a cascading effect on the thermodynamic health state of soil microbes. Shade‐tolerant woody species are more suitable for intercropping with Eucalyptus. Intercropping plantations with not less than 30% native trees were more favourable for long‐term survival and growth of both planted Eucalyptus and native trees, and provided much more favourable conditions for the natural immigration of other native trees, which leads to a healthy plant community with significantly higher eco‐exergy than EU. The initial mixing ratio between Eucalyptus and high diversity native trees affected soil fertility through its long‐term effects on the biodiversity and bio‐thermodynamic state of trees and soil microbes.Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight the long‐term positive effect of the intercropping ratio of Eucalyptus and high diversity native trees on multi‐trophic biodiversity conservation, bio‐thermodynamic health development and soil fertility conservation. In the conversion of monoculture EUs to multi‐species plantations, it is recommended to mix more than 30% NS, which have different ecological niches with Eucalyptus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current local or regional flood risk assessments, as required by the EU flood risk directive, rarely account for cascading effects due to interdependencies between critical infrastructures. However, it is essential to consider these effects, as they may severely impact areas outside the immediate flood risk area. The main purpose is to present and problematize a method (AB-CEM) for mapping and analysing cascading effects due to floods, aiming at also being relevant for other spatially widespread hazards. The method development and the pilot study, in Sweden, reveal that there is a prominent practical need for methods for mapping and analysing critical infrastructure interdependencies and cascading effects. Another key finding is that the method process and its results can serve as an important basis for decision-making about proactive and reactive efforts related to geographically extensive hazards. We further conclude that there is a recurring problem regarding sensitive and secret data. More specifically, the conflicting interests of information availability and information security concerning critical infrastructures, which needs to be resolved at the national level and communicated through clear guidelines. The method is a much-needed step towards accounting for cascading effects of floods in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon rainforests have been undergoing unprecedented levels of human-induced disturbances. In addition to local impacts, such changes are likely to cascade following the eastern-western atmospheric flow generated by trade winds. We propose a model of spatial and temporal interactions created by this flow to estimate the spread of effects from local disturbances to downwind locations along atmospheric trajectories. The spatial component captures cascading effects propagated by neighboring regions, while the temporal component captures the persistence of local disturbances. Importantly, all these network effects can be described by a single matrix, acting as a spatial multiplier that amplifies local forest disturbances. This matrix holds practical implications for policymakers as they can use it to easily map where the damage of an initial forest disturbance is amplified and propagated to. We identify regions that are likely to cause the largest impact throughout the basin and those that are the most vulnerable to shocks caused by remote deforestation. On average, the presence of cascading effects mediated by winds in the Amazon doubles the impact of an initial damage. However, there is heterogeneity in this impact. While damage in some regions does not propagate, in others, amplification can reach 250%. Since we only account for spillovers mediated by winds, our multiplier of 2 should be seen as a lower bound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript analyses the cascading effects between urban technical networks in Brazzaville, Congo. To this end, we have identified the urban networks that are essential to the functioning of the city, namely the road network, the drinking water network, the sanitation network and the electricity network. The working methodology is based on a spatial analysis of flooding and an analysis of vulnerability using indicators of exposure (direct contact with water), sensitivity (malfunctions caused when in contact with water) and adaptability (continuity of operation once in contact with water) of the urban technical networks. The analyses show that all the technical urban networks appear to be dependent or interdependent on each other. The road network is the most exposed, but causes very little disruption to the others, while the electricity network is the one that causes the most disruption once it malfunctions. The cascading effects between urban technical networks stem from functional, physical or cybernetic dependency and can cause partial or total failure of the affected network. A power failure could extend functional vulnerability to the drinking water supply network via pumps, which depend on electricity. This research is being carried out in the context of urban risk management, with the aim of ensuring urban resilience to flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disaster risk in the 21st century differs from the experience of past generations and is defined by its evolving systemic nature. The increased role of technological networks, societal interdependencies and climate change dynamics make crises more complex and unpredictable. Cascading and compounding dynamics are becoming the new “business as usual”, challenging emergency management to maintain operations in face of complex disruptions while requiring the development of good practices and strategy for facilitate the recovery process. Our special issue aimed to support the development of a paradigm shift in the understanding of complex events, utilizing a network-based, cross-disciplinary approach to resilience. This editorial introduces and summarizes 18 papers across four thematic areas: 1) Resilience Challenges; 2) Area Studies and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; 3) Community and Health; 4) Enhancing New Methodologies. The conclusions highlight open research challenges for future exploration.

Abstract Foundation species such as seagrasses modulate critical ecosystem processes, promote biodiversity, and structure community spatial and temporal dynamics. Hence, they play a key role in mediating the response of biodiversity to environmental changes. The breadth of their contribution to biodiversity maintenance and the potential cascading effects of their alteration remain unclear as we lack a comprehensive understanding of the intricate mechanisms governing their response to environmental changes and that of their associated fauna. Indeed, the mechanisms involved are often studied in isolation or at scales that only provide incomplete representations of the complex functioning of these ecosystems. This study aimed to clarify the direct and indirect relationships linking the environment, seagrass, and their associated faunal assemblages, using structural equation modeling (SEM). To this end, we review the literature to derive theoretical models of the functioning of seagrass ecosystems and test them using long‐term monitoring data covering 14 years of nine different Zostera marina seagrass beds across 500 km of coastline. We show that contradictory relationships and ambiguities regarding seagrass–biodiversity relationships emerge from the currently available literature (covering experimental, observational, and modeling studies). The SEM approach allowed us to clarify these direct and indirect relationships and resolve most ambiguities. In particular, we show that seagrass mediates the effect of the environment on its associated communities. However, this mediating effect is different, both qualitatively and quantitatively, for epifauna and infauna. Unexpectedly, the diversity of benthic macrofauna appeared to be controlled and promoted by the biomass rather than by the shoot density of the seagrass beds. We also provide quantitative estimates for the direct and cascading pathways linking seagrass biodiversity to environmental changes. Overall, by synthesizing, clarifying, and quantifying the multiple relationships linking a foundation species such as seagrass to its environment and associated biodiversity, we contribute to a better understanding of seagrass meadows functioning and help predict the potential consequences of foundation species alteration on their associated fauna.

With the deepening interdependence between the power system and the natural gas system (NGS), the integrated power-gas system (IGPS) has been a vital part of the energy structure. On one hand, interdependence improves energy utilization. On the other hand, the two-way energy flow brings new challenges to the reliable operation of IPGS. Therefore, the integrated planning model of IPGS considering N-1 constraint is proposed. Firstly, a framework of IPGS is developed to describe the N-1 contingency both in the power system and NGS considering cascading effects. Then an integrated planning model is proposed considering N-1 constraint and cascading effects between the power system and NGS. The reduced disjunctive model (RDM) is utilized to obtain the optimal planning scheme and reduce calculation difficulty. Furthermore, to further verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods, the integrated planning model is performed on an integrated gas and power test system.

Kelp forests provide habitat and resources to diverse organisms and provide valuable ecosystem services. However, marine deforestation due to wild kelp harvesting, among other drivers, is being observed worldwide. Studies assessing kelp removal effects often focus on the effects on kelp populations, although deforestation also impacts the organisms that interact directly or indirectly with kelp, including herbivores and algal assemblages. Using a meta-analytical approach, we estimated the magnitude and direction of kelp removal effects on kelp, invertebrate herbivores, and understory algae. We also tested if responses varied among functional groups of understory algae and whether results were influenced by the subtidal or intertidal distribution of the removed kelp species and the time elapsed since kelp removal. We observed a substantial decrease in kelp abundance, remaining for up to 4 years following kelp removal, with a larger decrease in subtidal kelp but no recovery observed in intertidal kelp over time. Invertebrate herbivore abundance showed no significant change over time. Understory algae abundance responded positively, although this effect tended to slightly decline over time following subtidal kelp removal. Canopy-, turf-forming and foliose algae were the most benefited, which raises concern about their potential to outcompete kelp. The early succession patterns and cascading effects within kelp forests illustrated here highlight the need for long-term studies to elucidate the long-lasting effects of kelp fisheries, which are scarce at present. There is also a need to consider kelp forests’ role in providing habitat and resources to improve predictive frameworks allowing kelp forest conservation and sustainable fisheries.

Microplastics (MPs) is a major threat to agroecosystems. Their accumulation and impacts should be evaluated to advance our understanding of soil function and health. Uncovering the role of cascade effects in regulating crop growth is crucial to understanding the link between MPs disturbance and environmental functions. Therefore, we aimed to assess how the cascade changes between (non-) biological factors and functional traits of maize regulate the response of maize growth to MPs in different nutrient soil environments. We found that soil dehydration induced by MPs may disrupt the balance of the physiological status of maize, negatively affect photosynthetic performance, and enhance competition among organisms for limited nutrients. However, root-responsive nutrient cues with a high degree of tectonic freedom allowed adaptive phenotypic plasticity to occur, masking the negative effects of MPs. In nutrient-rich soil environments, moderate and high intensity (>0.5 %) MPs disturbances initiated root nutrient foraging activities, and maize tended to decrease its cost of investing in root construction, i.e., increasing specific root length (SRL) to promote its own growth. The growth of maize was mainly characterized by increases in the belowground biomass (BGB, 7.11 to 20.81 g) and aboveground biomass (AGB, 61.11 to 118.26 g). Our study suggests that a cascade effect between environmental factors initiated by MPs and the functional architecture of the maize root system drives maize to regulate its growth by responding to nutrient cues. These findings will help to ensure food security, formulate environmental risk management policies and protect soil health, especially in the context of future agriculture.

The number of climate-related disasters has progressively increased in the last two decades and this trend will drastically exacerbate in the medium- and long-term horizons according to climate change projections. In this framework, through a multi-disciplinary team and a strong background acquired in recent projects, ICARIA aims to promote the use of asset-level modeling to achieve a better understanding of climate related tangible direct and indirect impacts on critical assets due to complex, cascading, and compound disasters. Furthermore, it takes into account the related risk reduction provided by suitable, sustainable, and cost-effective adaptation solutions. ICARIA focuses on both (i) critical assets and services that were not designed for potential climate change-related impacts that can increase the unplanned outages and failures, and (ii) on housing, natural areas, and population. Cutting edge methods regarding climate scenario building, asset-level-coupled models, and multi-risk assessment approaches will be implemented and replicated in three EU regions to understand how future climate scenarios might affect critical assets and to provide decision-making support tools to private and public risk owners to assess the costs and benefits of various adaptation solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a growth in the number of composite indicator tools used to assess community risk, vulnerability, and resilience, to assist study and policy planning. However, existing research shows that these composite indicators vary extensively in method, selected variables, aggregation methods, and sample size. The result is a plethora of qualitative and quantitative composite indices to choose from. Despite each providing valuable location-based information about specific communities and their qualities, the results of studies, each using disparate methods, cannot easily be integrated for use in decision making, given the different index attributes and study locations. Like many regions in the world, the Arctic is experiencing increased variability in temperatures as a direct consequence of a changing planetary climate. Cascading effects of changes in permafrost are poorly characterized, thus limiting response at multiple scales. We offer that by considering the spatial interaction between the effects of permafrost, infrastructure, and diverse patterns of community characteristics, existing research using different composite indices and frameworks can be augmented. We used a system-science and place-based knowledge approach that accounts for sub-system and cascade impacts through a proximity model of spatial interaction. An estimated 'permafrost vulnerability surface' was calculated across Alaska using two existing indices: relevant infrastructure and permafrost extent. The value of this surface in 186 communities and 30 military facilities was extracted and ordered to match the numerical rankings of the Denali Commission in their assessment of permafrost threat, allowing accurate comparison between the permafrost threat ranks and the PVI rankings. The methods behind the PVI provide a tool that can incorporate multiple risk, resilience, and vulnerability indices to aid adaptation planning, especially where large-scale studies with good geographic sample distribution using the same criteria and methods do not exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the deepening of the coupling between the power system and natural gas system (NGS), the integrated gas and power systems (IGPSs) have been an important infrastructure in the energy systems. On the one hand, the IGPSs improve the energy efficiency. On the other hand, the coupling structure makes the safe and reliable operation of the power system more threatened, especially under extreme events. As an important infrastructure, the IGPS often has large-scale power outage in meteorological disaster events, such as windstorm. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the resilience of the IGPS. A resilience assessment model is proposed to evaluate the resilience of IGPSs considering the cascading effects between the two systems under windstorms with low probability and high risk. Firstly, the failure model of components utilizing the fragility curve is represented. Then, an optimal power flow model is proposed to evaluate the resilience of the power system. Based on this, resilience indicators are proposed to quantify the damage caused by windstorms. The proposed methods have been proved to be effective in evaluating the resilience of the IPGS. Simulation results show that IPGS is less resilient than independent power systems due to cascading effects. The decrease of resilience intensifies with the increase of wind speeds, and the performance level of IGPS is 58% lower than that of IPS when the wind speed is 36 m/s.

This study has two aims: to determine the spatial distribution of multi-hazard levels and to discover the interactions, interdependencies, and effects that cascade among hazards in Gunungkidul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta. A multi-hazard map was created with a scale of 1:250,000 and modelled using SMCE (Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation). The conditioning factors used included slope, rainfall, historical data, river distance, geomorphology, land cover, lithology, and fault distance. The selected conditioning factors for each hazard were then weighted using weighted overlay analysis. The results showed that the area of Gunungkidul can be included in the high-risk category for floods, since the probability of flooding is 56.72%, the probability of landslides is 9.14%, that of drought is 48.86%, and that of seismic disturbance is 20.83%. (Multi-hazard maps are created by overlaying flood, landslide, seismic, and drought hazard maps.) After these risk factors were calculated, the regions on the multi-hazard map were re-categorized into five hazard classes. All areas in Gunungkidul Regency have multiple hazards, with risk factors of different magnitudes. The interaction between hazards can generate new hazards that are called cascading hazards. The cascading hazards in the study area are most likely to occur in the north of Gunungkidul Regency with its very high seismic and landslide hazard risk factors, due to the geological and geomorphological conditions of the Baturagung Structural Hills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial light at night (ALAN) affects species' physiology and behaviour, and the interactions between species. Despite the importance of plants as primary producers, it remains poorly understood whether and how effects of ALAN on plants cascade through the food web.We assess the extent to which ALAN of different spectra result in plant‐mediated insect herbivory damage. In a 6‐month field experiment, we exposed plants of differing palatability to three colours of ALAN and a dark control, and assessed plant traits (growth rate, leaf size, foliar density and thickness) and insect herbivory (represented by insect damage as loss of foliage to leaf‐chewing insects, and gall abundance by phloem‐feeding herbivory).We found evidence for plant trait‐mediated ALAN effects on herbivory for oak, but not for blueberry. In oak, ALAN of different colours changed the direction of relationships of insect damage with relative growth rate and with leaf thickness. Moreover, we found that the effects of ALAN on herbivory damage differed markedly between forest types within the same locale, particularly in the red light treatment.Synthesis and applications. Our results provide evidence that continuous night‐time light, as provided by street lighting around the world, affects food web interactions. The nature of these effects differed by species and appeared to depend on forest type and the light spectrum employed, thus underlining the context dependency of ALAN in different ecosystems and environmental settings. These findings highlight the complexity of using spectral manipulation as a mitigation measure, and the need for further consideration of ALAN in environmental management and planning, to limit the exposure and impact of cascading effects of artificial light at night on food webs and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends and ecological consequences of phosphorus (P) decline and increasing nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (N:P) ratios in rivers and estuaries are reviewed and discussed. Results suggest that re‐oligotrophication is a dominant trend in rivers and estuaries of high‐income countries in the last two–three decades, while in low‐income countries widespread eutrophication occurs. The decline in P is well documented in hundreds of rivers of United States and the European Union, but the biotic response of rivers and estuaries besides phytoplankton decline such as trends in phytoplankton composition, changes in primary production, ecosystem shifts, cascading effects, changes in ecosystem metabolism, etc., have not been sufficiently monitored and investigated, neither the effects of N:P imbalance. N:P imbalance has significant ecological effects that need to be further investigated. There is a growing number of cases in which phytoplankton biomass have been shown to decrease due to re‐oligotrophication, but the potential regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance described in shallow lakes has been documented only in a few rivers and estuaries yet. The main reasons why regime shifts are rarely described in rivers and estuaries are, from one hand the scarcity of data on macrophyte cover trends, and from the other hand physical factors such as peak flows or high turbidity that could prevent a general spread of submerged macrophytes as observed in shallow lakes. Moreover, re‐oligotrophication effects on rivers may be different compared to lakes (e.g., lower dominance of macrophytes) or estuaries (e.g., limitation of primary production by N instead of P) or may be dependent on river/estuary type. We conclude that river and estuary re‐oligotrophication effects are complex, diverse and still little known, and in some cases are equivalent to those described in shallow lakes, but the regime shift is more likely to occur in mid to high‐order rivers and shallow estuaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change loss and damage (L&D) presents an existential threat to the Fiji Islands. This case study examines how rural Indo-Fijian sugarcane farming communities face challenges in minimising, averting, and addressing L&D from cyclones. In-depth semi-structured interviews (n = 68) were conducted with 40 sugarcane farmers in two Indo-Fijian sugarcane communities, Barotu and Toko settlements in Western Viti Levu, Fiji, and with 28 key stakeholders from government ministries, academia, and climate change response services. Despite implementing climate change adaptation measures, Fiji’s sugar industry has faced devastating L&D from frequent and severe cyclones. Much of the climate change L&D to crops, property, and income was irreversible and unavoidable. Non-economic loss and damage (NELD) was found insurmountable in both field sites, including the loss of homes and places of worship, cascading and flow-on effects as well as the heightening of uncertainty, fear, and trauma. Evidence suggests that L&D, including NELD, is highly context specific, and UNFCCC’s broad NELD categories do not fully capture L&D at the local level. The systematic documentation of L&D within vulnerable communities would improve understanding of L&D, including NELD, and assist to facilitate the mobilisation of immediate support and action to address L&D in countries that lack the capacities to respond independently. This paper recommends crucial policy interventions such as livelihood diversification, integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, land tenure policy reforms, and the operationalisation of the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building multiple, complex risk scenarios is a priority for the improvement of the effectiveness of early warning systems and technical countermeasure designs to detect phenomena associated with severe weather events, such as floods and landslides. This study presents CERCA (Cascading Effects in Risk Consequences Assessment), a methodology for the characterisation of event scenarios that is consistent with the current Italian Civil Protection Guidelines on the national warning system for weather-related geo-hydrological and hydraulic risks. The aim is to propose a simple, effective, multi-scale operational tool that can be adapted to multiple purposes. CERCA is structured as a tool for a typical ‘scenario analysis’ in a multi-hazard context through the qualitative assessment of cascading effects and consequences for different categories of elements at risk, particularly in terms of human losses. The framework is assessed on a case study concerning a local event in Rossano (Calabria, Italy) and on a number of damaging events that occurred in Italy during the period 2004–2021. The proposed approach can be effective in processing post-disaster information, monitoring the real-time evolution of critical situations, creating priority lists for decisionmaking, and providing general dependency matrices to be used for ‘ex-ante’ definitions of scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is motivated by the unique findings and observations from reconnaissance visits after the earthquake series in Puerto Rico in January 2020. It aims to discuss the potential interactions of Hurricane Maria and 2020 earthquake series and the considerations they underscore for future field reconnaissance missions. Traditionally, post-disaster damage assessment activities focus on one hazard and overlook the potentially cascading effects of multiple hazards on structures and infrastructure. This paper provides case studies showing the possible interaction of multiple hazards and their cascading effects observed in Puerto Rico. Infrastructure surveyed includes port facilities, buildings (particularly historical structures), and bridge structures. The data collected during the reconnaissance missions reveal how the impacts of Hurricane Maria, along with infrastructure aging and delayed repair and recovery activities, may have influenced the damage level and failure modes observed during the earthquake sequence a few years after. These case studies illustrate the nature of multihazard interactions and how these effects should be documented during post-disaster assessments. Beyond the insights gained from the case studies illustrated in this paper, the field survey instrument is provided as a basis for future reconnaissance studies, and the full set of reconnaissance data collected are published on the NSF funded NHERI DesignSafe cyberinfrastructure. As a result, this work not only provides data from Puerto Rico that can inform future damage and recovery modeling efforts, but also offers survey instruments and a field data collection process that is particularly tailored to cases where multihazard effects are at play.

Landscape‐scale deforestation poses a major threat to global biodiversity, not only because it limits habitat availability, but also because it can drive the degradation of the remaining habitat. However, the multiple pathways by which deforestation directly and indirectly affects wildlife remain poorly understood, especially for elusive forest‐dependent species such as arboreal mammals. Using structural equation models, we assessed the direct and indirect effects of landscape forest loss on arboreal mammal assemblages in the Lacandona rainforest, Mexico. We placed camera traps in 100 canopy trees, and assessed the direct effect of forest cover and their indirect effects via changes in tree basal area and canopy openness on the abundance and diversity (i.e., species richness and exponential of Shannon entropy) of arboreal mammals. We found that forest loss had negative indirect effects on mammal richness through the increase of tree canopy openness. This could be related to the fact that canopy openness is usually inversely related to resource availability and canopy connectivity for arboreal mammals. Furthermore, independently of forest loss, the abundance and richness of arboreal mammals was positively related to tree basal area, which is typically higher in old‐growth forests. Thus, our findings suggest that arboreal mammals generally prefer old‐growth vegetation with relatively low canopy openness and high tree basal area. However, unexpectedly, forest loss was directly and positively related to the abundance and richness of mammals, probably due to a crowding effect, a reasonable possibility given the relatively short history (~40 years) of deforestation in the study region. Conversely, the Shannon diversity was not affected by the predictors we evaluated, suggesting that rare mammals (not the common species) are the ones most affected by these changes. All in all, our findings emphasize that conservation measures ought to focus on increasing forest cover in the landscape, and preventing the loss of large trees in the remaining forest patches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Critical infrastructure systems are complex and subjected to evolving risks and hazards, which makes anticipating their behavior difficult. To prioritize among actions that increase system resilience, it is critical to understand their impacts on parameters defining a network and on anticipated network performance. In this paper, the authors investigate the impacts of variations in three parameters on network vulnerability: component vulnerabilities, service interdependency redundancies, and system link configuration. The advances of this work compared to prior studies include: 1) The impacts of parameters varied across a range of values at the component level are evaluated considering component functionality and connectivity; 2) quantitative analyses of component performance as parameters vary are investigated based on system redundancies; and 3) probabilistic system interdependencies are analyzed through a Bayesian network that considers component pathways. Results quantify effects of changes in component vulnerabilities and dependencies and are used to discuss impacts on system resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urban floods induce not only natural geological disasters but also social accidents. • These disaster events have cascade, superposition, and amplification effects. • Social media data can provide detailed and valid information about disaster events. • Event evolutionary graphs can use social media data to construct disaster networks. • The disaster event network's propagation efficiency decreased by 37–62% and 44%. Increasingly frequent flood disasters have caused great losses in recent years. Urban floods induce not only natural geological disasters but also social accidents. These disaster events, called urban flood cascade compound disaster events (UFCCDEs) in this study, have significant cascade, superposition, and amplification effects. However, conventional data sources and processing methods make it difficult to analyze the detailed course of disaster events caused by urban floods, thereby hindering the vulnerability assessment of UFCCDE networks (UFCCDENs). Herein, we propose a framework considering the interactions between disaster events caused by urban floods for rapidly and comprehensively assessing the vulnerability of the UFCCDEN. First, social media data (Sina Weibo) are processed to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of UFCCDEs and construct a UFCCDEN based on an event evolutionary graph. Second, complex network theory is applied to evaluate the importance of disaster events and the vulnerability of disaster causal chains in the constructed UFCCDEN. Finally, the global efficiency of the network is calculated to assess the propagation efficiency of the UFCCDEN before and after implementing disaster mitigation strategies based on the assessment results to demonstrate the performance of the assessment framework. The coastal megacity Guangzhou was selected as an example. The results showed that, social media data can provide detailed and valid information about UFCCDEs, which can be used to construct the UFCCDEN based on the event evolutionary graph. Waterlogging is found to be the most important disaster event in the UFCCDEN. Furthermore, power facilities, drainage facilities, and roads should be given top priority in the prevention and mitigation of urban floods because of their significant cascading amplification effects. The proposed framework can make the propagation efficiency of the UFCCDEN markedly decrease by 37–62% and 44%, based on the assessment results of disaster events and causal chains, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What makes one climate risk more “severe” or “dangerous” than others? Acknowledging that the notion of dangerousness can substantially vary from one sociocultural context to another, this Perspective paper builds on recent literature to explore three notions that are estimated to be foundational to climate risk severity: the physical, ecological and social thresholds leading to transformational and possibly abrupt changes; the irreversibility of these changes; and the cascading effects within and across the systems affected. While not necessarily the most determining dimensions of risk, they deserve more attention and integration into frameworks to assess “severe” climate risk, such frameworks remaining under-developed. The paper also takes stock of issues related to the spatial scale(s) of and the evidence base for severe climate risks. It lands on four intertwined research directions across geographies, sectors and populations, that are hypothesized to play a critical role in the coming decade, from feeding the next IPCC cycle to more broadly supporting the development of anticipatory adaptation policies.

The occurrence of floods has always represented a challenge to cities, with long-term impacts that are usually neglected, such as the degradation of the urban environment and the impoverishment of the population due to recurrent events. Besides the losses usually computed in flood damage assessment, there are also secondary effects, but not less important, resulting from failures of critical infrastructures, such as power supply, which generate diseconomies to the system. Thus, power outage can aggravate the effects of floods, reducing income generation, and consequently the population’s recovery capacity. Going beyond the “domino effect” metaphor, in which the disruption of a system can cause a chain of similar events disrupting other systems, this paper aims to expand the concept of cascading effects by considering not only the spatial approach that affects other urban services, but also incorporating temporal analysis. The main purpose, in this case, is to identify regions in which flooding is a catalyst for social impoverishment. Through hydrological and hydraulic modeling, the cascading effects can be interpreted as a series of interconnected events that are triggered by flood events and aggravated by their recurrence, what make it difficult or even impossible to recover from losses. The main innovation of the approach is the proposition of a global index to assess the watershed recovery deficit considering a sequence of flood events. Moreover, the results highlight that although the direct impacts of floods are more significant, the impact of power shortage worsens the societal situation.

Understanding how natural communities and ecosystems are structured and respond to anthropogenic pressures in a rapidly changing world is key to successful management and conservation. A fundamental but often overlooked biological characteristic of organisms is sex. Sex-based responses are often considered when conducting studies at organismal and population levels, but are rarely investigated in community ecology. Focusing on kelp forests as a model system, and through a review of other marine and terrestrial ecosystems, we found evidence of widespread sex-based variation in species interactions. Sex-based variation in species interactions is expected to affect ecosystem structure and functioning via multiple trophic and nontrophic pathways. Understanding the drivers and consequences of sex-based variation in species interactions can inform more effective management and restoration., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors have no interests to declare., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The relative roles of plants competing for resources versus top‐down control of vegetation by herbivores, in turn impacted by predators, during early stages of tropical forest succession remain poorly understood. Here we examine the impact of insectivorous birds, bats, and ants exclusion on arthropods communities on replicated 5 × 5 m of pioneering early successional vegetation plots in lowland tropical forest gaps in Papua New Guinea. In plots from which focal taxa of predators were excluded we observed increased biomass of herbivorous and predatory arthropods, and increased density, and decreased diversity of herbivorous insects. However, changes in the biomass of plants, herbivores, and arthropod predators were positively correlated or uncorrelated between these three trophic levels and also between individual arthropod orders. Arthropod abundance and biomass correlated strongly with the plant biomass irrespective of the arthropods' trophic position, a signal of bottom‐up control. Patterns in herbivore specialization confirm lack of a strong top‐down control and were largely unaffected by the exclusion of insectivorous birds, bats, and ants. No changes of plant–herbivore interaction networks were detected except for decrease in modularity of the exclosure plots. Our results suggest weak top‐down control of herbivores, limited compensation between arthropod and vertebrate predators, and limited intra‐guild predation by birds, bats, and ants. Possible explanations are strong bottom‐up control, a low activity of the higher order predators, especially birds, possibly also bats, in gaps, and continuous influx of herbivores from surrounding mature forest matrix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing frequency of climate change–related hazards such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and drought increases the chances that they will coincide in space and time with volcanic eruptions. The cascading effects of the resulting compound disasters are much harder to predict than eruptions alone. Successful response to current volcanic events draws on the collective knowledge of past patterns gained by volcanologists and other disaster management professionals, allowing them to map out strategies for preparation, monitoring, evacuation, and recovery. In the coming decades, interpretations of such familiar patterns of events will be complicated by compound hazards. To respond effectively to future events, volcanologists will need to expand their knowledge of non-volcanic hazards and more intentionally incorporate social science perspectives into disaster planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]