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Abstract Adequate power to identify an exposure‐response relationship in a phase IIa clinical trial for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is important for dose selection and design of follow‐up studies. Currently, it is not known what response marker provides the pharmacokinetic‐pharmacodynamic (PK‐PD) model more power to identify an exposure‐response relationship. We simulated colony‐forming units (CFU) and time‐to‐positivity (TTP) measurements for four hypothetical drugs with different activity profiles for 14 days. The power to identify exposure‐response relationships when analyzing CFU, TTP, or combined CFU + TTP data was determined at 60 total participants, or with 25 out of 60 participants in the lowest and highest dosing groups (unbalanced design). For drugs with moderate bactericidal activity, power was low (

Abstract Large clinical trials often generate complex and large datasets which need to be presented frequently throughout the trial for interim analysis or to inform a data safety monitory board (DSMB). In addition, reliable and traceability are required to ensure reproducibility in pharmacometric data analysis. A reproducible pharmacometric analysis workflow was developed during a large clinical trial involving 1000 participants over one year testing Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) (re)vaccination in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality in frontline health care workers. The workflow was designed to review data iteratively during the trial, compile frequent reports to the DSMB, and prepare for rapid pharmacometric analysis. Clinical trial datasets (n = 41) were transferred iteratively throughout the trial for review. An RMarkdown based pharmacometric processing script was written to automatically generate reports for evaluation by the DSMB. Reports were compiled, reviewed, and sent to the DSMB on average three days after the data cut-off, reflecting the trial progress in real-time. The script was also utilized to prepare for the trial pharmacometric analyses. The same source data was used to create analysis datasets in NONMEM format and to support model script development. The primary endpoint analysis was completed three days after data lock and unblinding, and the secondary endpoint analyses two weeks later. The constructive collaboration between clinical, data management, and pharmacometric teams enabled this efficient, timely, and reproducible pharmacometrics workflow.

Abstract Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are a burden to global health, but their characterization is complicated by the influence of seasonality on incidence and severity. The Re‐BCG‐CoV‐19 trial (NCT04379336) assessed BCG (re)vaccination for protection from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) and recorded 958 RTIs in 574 individuals followed over 1 year. We characterized the probability of RTI occurrence and severity using a Markov model with health scores (HSs) for four states of symptom severity. Covariate analysis on the transition probability between HSs explored the influence of demographics, medical history, severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2), or influenza vaccinations, which became available during the trial, SARS‐CoV‐2 serology, and epidemiology‐informed seasonal influence of infection pressure represented as regional COVID‐19 pandemic waves, as well as BCG (re)vaccination. The infection pressure reflecting the pandemic waves increased the risk of RTI symptom development, whereas the presence of SARS‐CoV‐2 antibodies protected against RTI symptom development and increased the probability of symptom relief. Higher probability of symptom relief was also found in participants with African ethnicity and with male biological gender. SARS‐CoV‐2 or influenza vaccination reduced the probability of transitioning from mild to healthy symptoms. Model diagnostics over calendar‐time indicated that COVID‐19 cases were under‐reported during the first wave by an estimated 2.76‐fold. This trial was performed during the initial phase of the COVID‐19 pandemic in South Africa and the results reflect that situation. Using this unique clinical dataset of prospectively studied RTIs over the course of 1 year, our Markov Chain model was able to capture risk factors for RTI development and severity, including epidemiology‐informed infection pressure.

ABSTRACT We assessed the performance of a novel real-time PCR-based transrenal DNA (trDNA) assay for the specific detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis as a candidate marker of the early anti-tuberculosis therapy response. The study was performed on 288 urine samples from 72 tuberculosis patients collected at baseline and days 3, 7, and 14 of treatment with amoxicillin-clavulanic acid alone or in combination with meropenem, ertapenem, optimized-dose rifampicin, or standard treatment control in South Africa. trDNA was detected in one-third of the samples. The highest proportion of positive PCR results (cycle threshold < 36) was observed on days 3 and 7, reflecting the point in time when maximum bacterial killing and disintegration are expected. When analyzed by study arms, the trend was observed in groups treated with active antibiotics affecting cell wall integrity (meropenem, control) but not in inactive drugs (ertapenem, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid alone) or active drugs not affecting the cell wall (rifampicin). Overall, however, the trDNA assay did not correlate well with sputum culture-based decline of viable bacteria. This is possibly due to trDNA reflecting the killing of both culturable and non-culturable bacteria and should be explored further. IMPORTANCE This study presents the results of the evaluation of a novel method for the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis, in urine. Detecting parts of the mycobacteria in urine is of particular interest as it allows us to use a sample that is easy to obtain and that does not require uncomfortable procedures or safety precautions like obtaining sputum for culture, which is the most commonly used sample in the diagnosis of tuberculosis. In certain groups of individuals who cannot produce sputum, for example, children, non-sputum-based methods have particular importance. We found that the method tested was able to detect bacterial killing by active antibiotics that disrupt the cell wall and lead to fragmentation of bacteria. However, the assay can't detect inactive bacteria or bacteria that are active with an intact cell wall.

(1) Background: Some individuals are more susceptible to developing respiratory tract infections (RTIs) or coronavirus disease (COVID-19) than others. The aim of this work was to identify risk factors for symptomatic RTIs including COVID-19 and symptomatic COVID-19 during the coronavirus pandemic by using infection incidence, participant baseline, and regional COVID-19 burden data. (2) Methods: Data from a prospective study of 1000 frontline healthcare workers randomized to Bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccination or placebo, and followed for one year, was analyzed. Parametric time-to-event analysis was performed to identify the risk factors associated with (a) non-specific symptomatic respiratory tract infections including COVID-19 (RTIs+COVID-19) and (b) symptomatic RTIs confirmed as COVID-19 using a polymerase chain reaction or antigen test (COVID-19). (3) Results: Job description of doctor or nurse (median hazard ratio [HR] 1.541 and 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.299–1.822), the reported COVID-19 burden (median HR 1.361 and 95% CI 1.260–1.469 for 1.4 COVID-19 cases per 10,000 capita), or a BMI > 30 kg/m2 (median HR 1.238 and 95% CI 1.132–1.336 for BMI of 35.4 kg/m2) increased the probability of RTIs+COVID-19, while positive SARS-CoV-2 serology at enrollment (median HR 0.583 and 95% CI 0.449–0.764) had the opposite effect. The reported COVID-19 burden (median HR 2.372 and 95% CI 2.116–2.662 for 1.4 COVID-19 cases per 10,000 capita) and a job description of doctor or nurse (median HR 1.679 and 95% CI 1.253–2.256) increased the probability of developing COVID-19, while smoking (median HR 0.428 and 95% CI 0.284–0.648) and positive SARS-CoV-2 serology at enrollment (median HR 0.076 and 95% CI 0.026–0.212) decreased it. (4) Conclusions: Nurses and doctors with obesity had the highest probability of developing RTIs including COVID-19. Non-smoking nurses and doctors had the highest probability of developing COVID-19 specifically. The reported COVID-19 burden increased the event probability, while positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG serology at enrollment decreased the probability of RTIs including COVID-19, and COVID-19 specifically.

Background: A critical step in tuberculosis (TB) drug development is the Phase 2a early bactericidal activity (EBA) study which informs if a new drug or treatment has short-term activity in humans. The aim of this work was to present a standardized pharmacometric model-based early bactericidal activity analysis workflow and determine sample sizes needed to detect early bactericidal activity or a difference between treatment arms.Methods: Seven different steps were identified and developed for a standardized pharmacometric model-based early bactericidal activity analysis approach. Non-linear mixed effects modeling was applied and different scenarios were explored for the sample size calculations. The sample sizes needed to detect early bactericidal activity given different TTP slopes and associated variability was assessed. In addition, the sample sizes needed to detect effect differences between two treatments given the impact of different TTP slopes, variability in TTP slope and effect differences were evaluated.Results: The presented early bactericidal activity analysis approach incorporates estimate of early bactericidal activity with uncertainty through the model-based estimate of TTP slope, variability in TTP slope, impact of covariates and pharmacokinetics on drug efficacy. Further it allows for treatment comparison or dose optimization in Phase 2a. To detect early bactericidal activity with 80% power and at a 5% significance level, 13 and 8 participants/arm were required for a treatment with a TTP-EBA0-14 as low as 11 h when accounting for variability in pharmacokinetics and when variability in TTP slope was 104% [coefficient of variation (CV)] and 22%, respectively. Higher sample sizes are required for smaller early bactericidal activity and when pharmacokinetics is not accounted for. Based on sample size determinations to detect a difference between two groups, TTP slope, variability in TTP slope and effect difference between two treatment arms needs to be considered.Conclusion: In conclusion, a robust standardized pharmacometric model-based EBA analysis approach was established in close collaboration between microbiologists, clinicians and pharmacometricians. The work illustrates the importance of accounting for covariates and drug exposure in EBA analysis in order to increase the power of detecting early bactericidal activity for a single treatment arm as well as differences in EBA between treatments arms in Phase 2a trials of TB drug development.

Summary: Background: BCG vaccination prevents severe childhood tuberculosis (TB) and was introduced in South Africa in the 1950s. It is hypothesised that BCG trains the innate immune system by inducing epigenetic and functional reprogramming, thus providing non-specific protection from respiratory tract infections. We evaluated BCG for reduction of morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 in healthcare workers in South Africa. Methods: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial recruited healthcare workers at three facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa, unless unwell, pregnant, breastfeeding, immunocompromised, hypersensitivity to BCG, or undergoing experimental COVID-19 treatment. Participants received BCG or saline intradermally (1:1) and were contacted once every 4 weeks for 1 year. COVID-19 testing was guided by symptoms. Hospitalisation, COVID-19, and respiratory tract infections were assessed with Cox proportional hazard modelling and time-to-event analyses, and event severity with post hoc Markovian analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04379336. Findings: Between May 4 and Oct 23, 2020, we enrolled 1000 healthcare workers with a median age of 39 years (IQR 30–49), 70·4% were female, 16·5% nurses, 14·4% medical doctors, 48·5% had latent TB, and 15·3% had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Hospitalisation due to COVID-19 occurred in 15 participants (1·5%); ten (66·7%) in the BCG group and five (33·3%) in the placebo group, hazard ratio (HR) 2·0 (95% CI 0·69–5·9, p = 0·20), indicating no statistically significant protection. Similarly, BCG had no statistically significant effect on COVID-19 (p = 0·63, HR = 1·08, 95% CI 0·82–1·42). Two participants (0·2%) died from COVID-19 and two (0·2%) from other reasons, all in the placebo group. Interpretation: BCG did not protect healthcare workers from SARS-CoV-2 infection or related severe COVID-19 disease and hospitalisation. Funding: Funding provided by EDCTP, grant number RIA2020EF-2968. Additional funding provided by private donors including: Mediclinic, Calavera Capital (Pty) Ltd, Thys Du Toit, Louis Stassen, The Ryan Foundation, and Dream World Investments 401 (Pty) Ltd. The computations were enabled by resources in project SNIC 2020–5–524 provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at UPPMAX, partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement No. 2018–05,973.