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2. Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population

Author

Simms, Kate T., Keane, Adam, Nguyen, Diep Thi Ngoc, Caruana, Michael, Hall, Michaela T., Lui, Gigi, Gauvreau, Cindy, Demke, Owen, Arbyn, Marc, Basu, Partha, Wentzensen, Nicolas, Lauby-Secretan, Beatrice, Ilbawi, Andre, Hutubessy, Raymond, Almonte, Maribel, De Sanjosé, Silvia, Kelly, Helen, Dalal, Shona, Eckert, Linda O., Santesso, Nancy, Broutet, Nathalie, and Canfell, Karen

Published
2023
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3. Benefits and harms of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies in women living with HIV

Author

Hall, Michaela T., Simms, Kate T., Murray, John M., Keane, Adam, Nguyen, Diep T. N., Caruana, Michael, Lui, Gigi, Kelly, Helen, Eckert, Linda O., Santesso, Nancy, de Sanjose, Silvia, Swai, Edwin E., Rangaraj, Ajay, Owiredu, Morkor Newman, Gauvreau, Cindy, Demke, Owen, Basu, Partha, Arbyn, Marc, Dalal, Shona, Broutet, Nathalie, and Canfell, Karen

Published
2023
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4. Bayesian calibration of simulation models: A tutorial and an Australian smoking behaviour model

Author

Wade, Stephen, Weber, Marianne F, Sarich, Peter, Vaneckova, Pavla, Behar-Harpaz, Silvia, Ngo, Preston J, Cressman, Sonya, Gartner, Coral E, Murray, John M, Blakely, Tony A, Banks, Emily, Tammemagi, Martin C, Canfell, Karen, and Caruana, Michael

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Computation, 62P20 (Primary) 62M09 (Secondary), G.3
Abstract

Simulation models of epidemiological, biological, ecological, and environmental processes are increasingly being calibrated using Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian approach provides simple rules to synthesise multiple data sources and to calculate uncertainty in model output due to uncertainty in the calibration data. As the number of tutorials and studies published grow, the solutions to common difficulties in Bayesian calibration across these fields have become more apparent, and a step-by-step process for successful calibration across all these fields is emerging. We provide a statement of the key steps in a Bayesian calibration, and we outline analyses and approaches to each step that have emerged from one or more of these applied sciences. Thus we present a synthesis of Bayesian calibration methodologies that cut across a number of scientific disciplines. To demonstrate these steps and to provide further detail on the computations involved in Bayesian calibration, we calibrated a compartmental model of tobacco smoking behaviour in Australia. We found that the proportion of a birth cohort estimated to take up smoking before they reach age 20 years in 2016 was at its lowest value since the early 20th century, and that quit rates were at their highest. As a novel outcome, we quantified the rate that ex-smokers switched to reporting as a 'never smoker' when surveyed later in life; a phenomenon that, to our knowledge, has never been quantified using cross-sectional survey data., Comment: 49 pages, 5 figures, 17 tables

Published
2022

5. Global review of COVID-19 mitigation strategies and their impact on cancer service disruptions

Author

Shah, Richa, Loo, Ching Ee, Hanna, Nader Mounir, Hughes, Suzanne, Mafra, Allini, Fink, Hanna, McFerran, Ethna, Garcia, Montse, Acharya, Suryakanta, Langselius, Oliver, Frick, Clara, Niyigaba, Jean, Lasebikan, Nwamaka, Steinberg, Julia, Sullivan, Richard, Bray, Freddie, Ilbawi, André Michel, Ginsburg, Ophira, Chiam, Karen, Cylus, Jonathan, Caruana, Michael, David, Michael, Hui, Harriet, Canfell, Karen, and Soerjomataram, Isabelle

Published
2024
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8. Economic impact of using risk models for eligibility selection to the International lung screening Trial

Author

Cressman, Sonya, Weber, Marianne F., Ngo, Preston J., Wade, Stephen, Behar Harpaz, Silvia, Caruana, Michael, Tremblay, Alain, Manser, Renee, Stone, Emily, Atkar-Khattra, Sukhinder, Karikios, Deme, Ho, Cheryl, Fernandes, Aleisha, Yi Weng, Jing, McWilliams, Annette, Myers, Renelle, Mayo, John, Yee, John, Yuan, Ren, Marshall, Henry M, Fong, Kwun M, Lam, Stephen, Canfell, Karen, and Tammemägi, Martin C

Published
2023
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9. COVID-related disruptions to colorectal cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment could increase cancer Burden in Australia and Canada: A modelling study

Author

Worthington, Joachim, primary, Sun, Zhuolu, additional, Fu, Rui, additional, Lew, Jie-Bin, additional, Chan, Kelvin K. W., additional, Li, Qing, additional, Eskander, Antoine, additional, Hui, Harriet, additional, McLoughlin, Kirstie, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Peacock, Stuart, additional, Yong, Jean Hai Ein, additional, Canfell, Karen, additional, Feletto, Eleonora, additional, and Malagón, Talía, additional

Published
2024
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10. Are patients with cancer at higher risk of COVID-19-related death? A systematic review and critical appraisal of the early evidence

Author

Freeman, Victoria, Hughes, Suzanne, Carle, Chelsea, Campbell, Denise, Egger, Sam, Hui, Harriet, Yap, Sarsha, Deandrea, Silvia, Caruana, Michael, Onyeka, Tonia C., IJzerman, Maarten J., Ginsburg, Ophira, Bray, Freddie, Sullivan, Richard, Aggarwal, Ajay, Peacock, Stuart J., Chan, Kelvin K.W., Hanna, Timothy P., Soerjomataram, Isabelle, O'Connell, Dianne L., Steinberg, Julia, and Canfell, Karen

Published
2022
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11. The risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 or developing COVID-19 for people with cancer: A systematic review of the early evidence

Author

Carle, Chelsea, Hughes, Suzanne, Freeman, Victoria, Campbell, Denise, Egger, Sam, Caruana, Michael, Hui, Harriet, Yap, Sarsha, Deandrea, Silvia, Onyeka, Tonia C., IJzerman, Maarten J., Ginsburg, Ophira, Bray, Freddie, Sullivan, Richard, Aggarwal, Ajay, Peacock, Stuart J., Chan, Kelvin K.W., Hanna, Timothy P., Soerjomataram, Isabelle, O'Connell, Dianne L., Canfell, Karen, and Steinberg, Julia

Published
2022
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18. Risk of COVID‐19 death for people with a pre‐existing cancer diagnosis prior to COVID‐19‐vaccination: A systematic review and meta‐analysis.

Author

Steinberg, Julia, Hughes, Suzanne, Hui, Harriet, Allsop, Matthew J., Egger, Sam, David, Michael, Caruana, Michael, Coxeter, Peter, Carle, Chelsea, Onyeka, Tonia, Rewais, Isabel, Monroy Iglesias, Maria J., Vives, Nuria, Wei, Feixue, Abila, Derrick Bary, Carreras, Giulia, Santero, Marilina, O'Dowd, Emma L., Lui, Gigi, and Tolani, Musliu Adetola

Abstract

While previous reviews found a positive association between pre‐existing cancer diagnosis and COVID‐19‐related death, most early studies did not distinguish long‐term cancer survivors from those recently diagnosed/treated, nor adjust for important confounders including age. We aimed to consolidate higher‐quality evidence on risk of COVID‐19‐related death for people with recent/active cancer (compared to people without) in the pre‐COVID‐19‐vaccination period. We searched the WHO COVID‐19 Global Research Database (20 December 2021), and Medline and Embase (10 May 2023). We included studies adjusting for age and sex, and providing details of cancer status. Risk‐of‐bias assessment was based on the Newcastle‐Ottawa Scale. Pooled adjusted odds or risk ratios (aORs, aRRs) or hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using generic inverse‐variance random‐effects models. Random‐effects meta‐regressions were used to assess associations between effect estimates and time since cancer diagnosis/treatment. Of 23 773 unique title/abstract records, 39 studies were eligible for inclusion (2 low, 17 moderate, 20 high risk of bias). Risk of COVID‐19‐related death was higher for people with active or recently diagnosed/treated cancer (general population: aOR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.36‐1.61, I2 = 0; people with COVID‐19: aOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.41‐1.77, I2 = 0.58; inpatients with COVID‐19: aOR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.34‐2.06, I2 = 0.98). Risks were more elevated for lung (general population: aOR = 3.4, 95% CI: 2.4‐4.7) and hematological cancers (general population: aOR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.68‐2.68, I2 = 0.43), and for metastatic cancers. Meta‐regression suggested risk of COVID‐19‐related death decreased with time since diagnosis/treatment, for example, for any/solid cancers, fitted aOR = 1.55 (95% CI: 1.37‐1.75) at 1 year and aOR = 0.98 (95% CI: 0.80‐1.20) at 5 years post‐cancer diagnosis/treatment. In conclusion, before COVID‐19‐vaccination, risk of COVID‐19‐related death was higher for people with recent cancer, with risk depending on cancer type and time since diagnosis/treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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19. Risk of COVID‐19 death for people with a pre‐existing cancer diagnosis prior to COVID‐19‐vaccination: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Author

Steinberg, Julia, primary, Hughes, Suzanne, additional, Hui, Harriet, additional, Allsop, Matthew J., additional, Egger, Sam, additional, David, Michael, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Coxeter, Peter, additional, Carle, Chelsea, additional, Onyeka, Tonia, additional, Rewais, Isabel, additional, Monroy Iglesias, Maria J., additional, Vives, Nuria, additional, Wei, Feixue, additional, Abila, Derrick Bary, additional, Carreras, Giulia, additional, Santero, Marilina, additional, O'Dowd, Emma L., additional, Lui, Gigi, additional, Tolani, Musliu Adetola, additional, Mullooly, Maeve, additional, Lee, Shing Fung, additional, Landy, Rebecca, additional, Hanley, Sharon J. B., additional, Binefa, Gemma, additional, McShane, Charlene M., additional, Gizaw, Muluken, additional, Selvamuthu, Poongulali, additional, Boukheris, Houda, additional, Nakaganda, Annet, additional, Ergin, Isil, additional, Moraes, Fabio Ynoe, additional, Timilshina, Nahari, additional, Kumar, Ashutosh, additional, Vale, Diama B., additional, Molina‐Barceló, Ana, additional, Force, Lisa M., additional, Campbell, Denise Joan, additional, Wang, Yuqing, additional, Wan, Fang, additional, Baker, Anna‐Lisa, additional, Singh, Ramnik, additional, Salam, Rehana Abdus, additional, Yuill, Susan, additional, Shah, Richa, additional, Lansdorp‐Vogelaar, Iris, additional, Yusuf, Aasim, additional, Aggarwal, Ajay, additional, Murillo, Raul, additional, Torode, Julie S., additional, Kliewer, Erich V., additional, Bray, Freddie, additional, Chan, Kelvin K. W., additional, Peacock, Stuart, additional, Hanna, Timothy P., additional, Ginsburg, Ophira, additional, Van Hemelrijck, Mieke, additional, Sullivan, Richard, additional, Roitberg, Felipe, additional, Ilbawi, André M., additional, Soerjomataram, Isabelle, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2023
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20. Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines

Author

Caruana, Michael, primary, Gulati, Roman, additional, Etzioni, Ruth, additional, Barratt, Alexandra, additional, Armstrong, Bruce K., additional, Chiam, Karen, additional, Nair‐Shalliker, Visalini, additional, Luo, Qingwei, additional, Bang, Albert, additional, Grogan, Paul, additional, Smith, David P., additional, O'Connell, Dianne L., additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2023
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22. A (rough) pathwise approach to a class of non-linear stochastic partial differential equations

Author

Caruana, Michael, Friz, Peter, and Oberhauser, Harald

Subjects
Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs, Mathematics - Probability, 35R99, 60H15
Abstract

We consider nonlinear parabolic evolution equations of the form $\partial_{t}u=F(t,x,Du,D^{2}u) $, subject to noise of the form $H(x,Du) \circ dB$ where $H$ is linear in $Du$ and $\circ dB$ denotes the Stratonovich differential of a multidimensional Brownian motion. Motivated by the essentially pathwise results of [Lions, P.-L. and Souganidis, P.E.; Fully nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris S\'{e}r. I Math. 326 (1998), no. 9] we propose the use of rough path analysis [Lyons, T. J.; Differential equations driven by rough signals. Rev. Mat. Iberoamericana 14 (1998), no. 2, 215--310] in this context. Although the core arguments are entirely deterministic, a continuity theorem allows for various probabilistic applications (limit theorems, support, large deviations, ...)., Comment: minor changes and some more details in the appendix; this version to appear in Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincar\'e / Analyse non lin\'eaire

Published
2009
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23. Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.

Author

Caruana, Michael, Gulati, Roman, Etzioni, Ruth, Barratt, Alexandra, Armstrong, Bruce K., Chiam, Karen, Nair‐Shalliker, Visalini, Luo, Qingwei, Bang, Albert, Grogan, Paul, Smith, David P., O'Connell, Dianne L., and Canfell, Karen

Subjects
PROSTATE cancer, PROSTATE-specific antigen, ANTIGEN analysis, MEDICAL personnel, CANCER-related mortality
Abstract

Guidelines for prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia recommend that men at average risk of prostate cancer who have been informed of the benefits and harms, and who decide to undergo regular testing, should be offered testing every 2 years from 50 to 69 years. This study aimed to estimate the benefits and harms of regular testing in this context. We constructed Policy1‐Prostate, a discrete event microsimulation platform of the natural history of prostate cancer and prostate cancer survival, and PSA testing patterns and subsequent management in Australia. The model was calibrated to pre‐PSA (before 1985) prostate cancer incidence and mortality and validated against incidence and mortality trends from 1985 to 2011 and international trials. The model predictions were concordant with trials and Australian observed incidence and mortality data from 1985 to 2011. Out of 1000 men who choose to test according to the guidelines, 36 [21‐41] men will die from prostate cancer and 126 [119‐133] men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, compared with 50 [47‐54] and 94 [90‐98] men who do not test, respectively. During the 20 years of active PSA testing, 32.3% [25.6%‐38.8%] of all PSA‐test detected cancers are overdiagnosed cases that is, 30 [21‐42] out of 94 [83‐107] PSA‐test detected cancers. Australian men choosing to test with PSA every two years from 50 to 69 will reduce their risk of ever dying from prostate cancer and incur a risk of overdiagnosis: for every man who avoids dying from prostate cancer, two will be overdiagnosed with prostate cancer between 50 and 69 years of age. Australian men, with health professionals, can use these results to inform decision‐making about PSA testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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24. Partial differential equations driven by rough paths

Author

Caruana, Michael and Friz, Peter

Subjects
Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs, Mathematics - Probability, 35R99, 60H15
Abstract

We study a class of linear first and second order partial differential equations driven by weak geometric $p$-rough paths, and prove the existence of a unique solution for these equations. This solution depends continuously on the driving rough path. This allows a robust approach to stochastic partial differential equations. In particular, we may replace Brownian motion by more general Gaussian and Markovian noise. Support theorems and large deviation statements all became easy corollaries of the corresponding statements of the driving process. In the case of first order equations with Gaussian noise, we discuss the existence of a density with respect to the Lebesgue measure for the solution.

Published
2008

25. The Existence of Solutions for Rough Differential Equations

Author

Caruana, Michael

Subjects
510
Abstract

In one of the last Saint Flour lectures in 2004, T. Lyons remarked that a Peano theorem for rough differential equations had not yet been proved. The first successful attempt to prove this existence result was carried out by A.M. Davie. Using generalized Euler schemes, Davie showed that when working in finite dimensions, differential equations driven by geometric p-rough paths, for 1 ~ p < 3, have solutions whenever the vector fields have one degree less of smoothness than what is required for the existence of a unique solution in Lyons' Universal Limit theorem. P. Friz and N. Victoir have used geodesic approximations in the free nilpotent group to construct higher order Euler schemes and thus generalize Davie's results to the general case p ~ 1. Again this construction works in finite dimensions. In this thesis we present a new proof for Peano's theorem for rough differential equations, which is valid in infinite dimensions under an appropriate compactness assumption on the vector fields. Our approach, which is different from the ones mentioned above, makes full use of Lyons' Universal Limit theorem and is based on the construction of a family of rough polynomial approximations, each of which is a concatenation of rough path solutions of different equations. After giving a brief overview of the theory of rough paths, we prove several compactness results for multiplicative functionals and integrals along rough paths. \Ve then present our proof for Peano's theorem, which in the infinite dimensional case uses these compactness arguments. In the last part of the thesis, we focus on the relationship between the solutions of It6-Stratonovich stochastic differential equations and the rough path solutions of the equations driven by the Brownian rough path. In particular we address the issue concerning the different conditions imposed on the vector fields in these two approaches. \Ve prove that if the vector field of the rough differential equation driven by the Brownian rough path is Cl+c and can be expressed as a limit in V' (pi> p) of a sequence of C~+c functions which satisfy an appropriate ellipticity condition, then the rough path solution of the equation can be defined as the almost sure limit in the p-variation metric of a sequence of solutions of stochastic differential equations.

Published
2007

26. Exploring monitoring strategies for population surveillance of HPV vaccine impact using primary HPV screening

Author

Velentzis, Louiza S., primary, Hawkes, David, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Brotherton, Julia ML., additional, Smith, Megan A., additional, Roeske, Lara, additional, Karim, Khurram A., additional, Garland, Suzanne M., additional, Wrede, C. David, additional, Tan, Jeffery, additional, Wheeler, Cosette, additional, Castle, Philip E., additional, Saville, Marion, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2023
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27. Fifty-year forecasts of daily smoking prevalence: can Australia reach 5% by 2030?

Author

Wade, Stephen, primary, Weber, Marianne F, additional, Sarich, Peter, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Watts, Christina, additional, Vaneckova, Pavla, additional, Ngo, Preston, additional, Cressman, Sonya, additional, Scollo, Michelle, additional, Banks, Emily, additional, Gartner, Coral E, additional, Grogan, Paul B, additional, Blakely, Tony, additional, Tammemagi, Martin C, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2023
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31. A protocol for modelled evaluations to maximise the long-term health and economic gains of lung cancer interventions in Australia: The Lung cancer Evaluation And Policy program (LEAPp)

Author

Vaneckova, Pavla, primary, Wade, Stephen, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Ngo, Preston, additional, Behar Harpaz, Silvia, additional, Sarich, Peter, additional, Luo, Qingwei, additional, Goldsbury, David Eamon, additional, Cheng, Elvin, additional, Yu, Xue Qin, additional, Watts, Christina, additional, Barron, Katherine, additional, Yap, Mei Ling, additional, Grogan, Paul Bernard, additional, Banks, Emily, additional, Fong, Kwun Meng, additional, Marshall, Henry, additional, Karikios, Deme, additional, Rankin, Nicole Marion, additional, Tammemägi, Martin Carl, additional, McWilliams, Annette, additional, Cressman, Sonya, additional, Canfell, Karen, additional, and Weber, Marianne Frances, additional

Published
2023
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33. Evaluation of the benefits and harms of alternative strategies for cervical screening and treatment in women living with HIV: modelling to support WHO 2021 cervical screening and treatment guidelines to prevent cervical cancer

Author

Hall, Michaela, primary, Simms, Kate, additional, Murray, John, additional, Keane, Adam, additional, Nguyen, TND, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Liu, Gigi, additional, Kelly, Helen, additional, Eckert, Lindo, additional, Santesso, Nancy, additional, DeSanjose, Silvia, additional, Swai, Edwin, additional, Rangaraj, Ajay, additional, Owiredu, Morkor Newman, additional, Gauvreau, Cindy, additional, Demke, Owen, additional, Basu, Partha, additional, Arbyn, Marc, additional, Dalal, Shona, additional, Broutet, Nathalie, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2022
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34. Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening and treatment in 78 low-income and lower-middle income countries for women in the general population: modelling to support updated WHO cervical screening and treatment guidelines to prevent cervical cancer

Author

Simms, Kate, primary, Keane, Adam, additional, Nguyen, TND, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Hall, Michaela, additional, Lui, Gigi, additional, Gauvreau, Cindy, additional, Demke, Owen, additional, Arbyn, Marc, additional, Basu, Partha, additional, Wentzensen, Nicolas, additional, Lauby-Secretan, Beatrice, additional, Ilbawi, André, additional, Hutubessy, Raymond, additional, Almonte, Maribel, additional, DeSanjose, Silvia, additional, Kelly, Helen, additional, Dalal, Shona, additional, Eckert, Lindo, additional, Santesso, Nancy, additional, Broutet, Nathalie, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2022
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35. Updated cost-effectiveness analysis of lung cancer screening for Australia, capturing differences in the health economic impact of NELSON and NLST outcomes

Author

Behar Harpaz, Silvia, primary, Weber, Marianne F., additional, Wade, Stephen, additional, Ngo, Preston J., additional, Vaneckova, Pavla, additional, Sarich, Peter E. A., additional, Cressman, Sonya, additional, Tammemagi, Martin C., additional, Fong, Kwun, additional, Marshall, Henry, additional, McWilliams, Annette, additional, Zalcberg, John R., additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2022
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36. The predicted effect and cost-effectiveness of tailoring colonoscopic surveillance according to mismatch repair gene in patients with Lynch syndrome

Author

Kang, Yoon-Jung, primary, Caruana, Michael, additional, McLoughlin, Kirstie, additional, Killen, James, additional, Simms, Kate, additional, Taylor, Natalie, additional, Frayling, Ian M., additional, Coupé, Veerle M.H., additional, Boussioutas, Alex, additional, Trainer, Alison H., additional, Ward, Robyn L., additional, Macrae, Finlay, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2022
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37. How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country

Author

Velentzis, Louiza S., Caruana, Michael, Simms, Kate T., Lew, Jie‐Bin, Shi, Ju‐Fang, Saville, Marion, Smith, Megan A., Lord, Sarah J., Tan, Jeffrey, Bateson, Deborah, Quinn, Michael, and Canfell, Karen

Published
2017
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40. National experience in the first two years of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening in an HPV vaccinated population in Australia: observational study

Author

Smith, Megan A, primary, Sherrah, Maddison, additional, Sultana, Farhana, additional, Castle, Philip E, additional, Arbyn, Marc, additional, Gertig, Dorota, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Wrede, C David, additional, Saville, Marion, additional, and Canfell, Karen, additional

Published
2022
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43. Association Between Melanoma Detected During Routine Skin Checks and Mortality

Author

Watts, Caroline G., primary, McLoughlin, Kirstie, additional, Goumas, Chris, additional, van Kemenade, Cathelijne H., additional, Aitken, Joanne F., additional, Soyer, H. Peter, additional, Fernandez Peñas, Pablo, additional, Guitera, Pascale, additional, Scolyer, Richard A., additional, Morton, Rachael L., additional, Menzies, Scott W., additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Kang, Yoon Jung, additional, Mann, Graham J., additional, Chakera, Annette H., additional, Madronio, Christine M., additional, Armstrong, Bruce K., additional, Thompson, John F., additional, and Cust, Anne E., additional

Published
2021
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44. 1343A systematic review and meta-analysis of tobacco smoking behaviour changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Vaneckova, Pavla, primary, Sarich, Peter, additional, Cabasag, Citadel Jungco, additional, Liebermann, Erica, additional, Carle, Chelsea, additional, Hughes, Suzanne, additional, Egger, Sam, additional, O'Connell, Dianne, additional, Weber, Marianne, additional, da Costa, Allini Mafra, additional, Caruana, Michael, additional, Gouda, Hebe, additional, Canfell, Karen, additional, Ginsburg, Ophira, additional, Steinberg, Julia, additional, and Soerjomataram, Isabelle, additional

Published
2021
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46. A systematic review and meta-analysis of tobacco smoking behaviour changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Vaneckova, Pavla, Sarich, Peter, Cabasag, Citadel Jungco, Liebermann, Erica, Carle, Chelsea, Hughes, Suzanne, Egger, Sam, O'Connell, Dianne, Weber, Marianne, da Costa, Allini Mafra, Caruana, Michael, Gouda, Hebe, Canfell, Karen, Ginsburg, Ophira, Steinberg, Julia, and Soerjomataram, Isabelle

Subjects
Coronavirus, COVID-19, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, 1117 Public Health and Health Services
Abstract

Background Globally, tobacco smoking remains the largest cause of premature death. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced nations to take unprecedented measures including ‘lockdowns’ that might impact tobacco smoking behaviour. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses to assess smoking behaviour changes during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We searched Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/BioRxiv/MedRxiv/SSRN databases (January-November 2020) for published and pre-print articles that reported specific smoking behaviour changes or intentions after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used random-effects models to pool prevalence ratios comparing the prevalence of smokers during and before the pandemic, and the prevalence of smoking behaviour changes. Results 33 studies were included in meta-analyses, with smoking data for ∼230,000 participants across 24 countries. The proportions of smokers during and before the pandemic were similar, with a pooled prevalence ratio 0.85 (95%CI:0.76-0.95). In studies limited to smokers, 27% (95%CI:21-32%) smoked more, 17% (95%CI:13-21%) smoked less, 54% (95%CI:47-61%) smoked the same and 5% (95%CI:2-9%) reported quitting smoking. Among all participants, 1% (95%CI:0-2%) started smoking during the pandemic. All studies were at high risk of bias due to use of non-representative samples, likely non-response bias, and utilisation of non-validated questions. Conclusions Smoking behaviour changes during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic were highly mixed. Meta-analyses indicated slightly lower overall smoking prevalence during the pandemic, but higher intensity among smokers. Key messages More recent and higher quality studies of smoking behaviour changes are required to measure the longer term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Published
2021

47. Projections of smoking-related cancer mortality in Australia to 2044.

Author

Qingwei Luo, Steinberg, Julia, Xue Qin Yu, Weber, Marianne, Caruana, Michael, Yap, Sarsha, Grogan, Paul B., Banks, Emily, O'Connell, Dianne L., and Canfell, Karen

Subjects
RELATIVE medical risk, DEVELOPED countries, MOUTH tumors, HEAD & neck cancer, LUNG tumors, LARYNGEAL tumors, LIP tumors, PHARYNX tumors, DESCRIPTIVE statistics, SMOKING, DATA analysis software, ESOPHAGEAL tumors
Published
2022
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50. Figure_3_(1) – Supplemental material for Validation of Microsimulation Models against Alternative Model Predictions and Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Outcomes of Randomized Controlled Trials

Author

Jie-Bin Lew, Greuter, Marjolein J. E., Caruana, Michael, He, Emily, Worthington, Joachim, D. James St John, Macrae, Finlay A., Feletto, Eleonora, Coupé, Veerle M. H., and Canfell, Karen

Subjects
111708 Health and Community Services, 111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified, 160807 Sociological Methodology and Research Methods, FOS: Health sciences, FOS: Sociology
Abstract

Supplemental material, Figure_3_(1) for Validation of Microsimulation Models against Alternative Model Predictions and Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Outcomes of Randomized Controlled Trials by Jie-Bin Lew, Marjolein J. E. Greuter, Michael Caruana, Emily He, Joachim Worthington, D. James St John, Finlay A. Macrae, Eleonora Feletto, Veerle M. H. Coupé and Karen Canfell in Medical Decision Making

Published
2020
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