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Abstract Background Following the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to evaluate different mitigation strategies for future preparedness. Mass testing and local lockdowns were employed during the Alpha wave in Denmark, which led to ten times more tests than the typical European member state and incidence-based restrictions at the parish level. This study aims to quantify the effects of these interventions in terms of hospital admissions and societal freedom. Methods This study assesses the effectiveness of these strategies via counterfactual scenarios using a detailed, individual-based simulation model that replicates the entire Danish population. The model considers multiple factors, including evolving societal restrictions, vaccination roll-out, seasonal influences, and varying intensities of PCR and antigen testing across different age groups and degree of completed vaccination. It also integrates adaptive human behavior in response to changes in incidences at the municipality and parish levels. Results The simulations show, that without mass testing in Denmark, there would have been a 150% increase in hospital admissions, and additional local lockdowns equivalent to 21 days of strict national lockdown. Without the policy of local lockdowns, hospitalizations would have increased by 50%. Conclusions In conclusion, the combination of mass testing and local lockdowns likely prevented a large increase in hospitalizations while increasing overall societal freedom during the Alpha wave in Denmark. In future epidemics, mass testing and local lockdowns can likely prevent overwhelming healthcare systems in phases of high transmission and hospitalization risks.

ABSTRACT: Bovine mastitis is one of the most important diseases in modern dairy farming, as it leads to reduced welfare and milk production and increased need for antibiotic use. Clinical mastitis in Denmark is most often treated with a combination of local and systemic treatment with penicillin. The objective of this randomized clinical trial was to assess whether worse results could be expected with local intramammary treatment with penicillin compared with a combination of local and systemic treatment with penicillin in terms of the bacteriological cure of mild and moderate clinical mastitis cases caused by gram-positive bacteria. We carried out a noninferiority trial with a noninferiority margin set to a relative reduction in bacteriological cure of 15% between these 2 treatment groups to assess the effect of reducing the total antibiotic use by a factor of 16 for each treated case. Clinical mastitis cases from 12 Danish dairy farms were considered for enrollment. On-farm selection of gram-positive cases was carried out by the farm personnel within the first 24 h after a clinical mastitis case was detected. A single farm used bacterial culture results from the on-farm veterinarian, whereas the other 11 farms were provided with an on-farm test to distinguish gram-positive bacteria from gram-negative or samples without bacterial growth. Cases with suspected gram-positive bacteria were allocated to a treatment group: either local or combination. Bacteriological cure was assessed based on the bacterial species identified in the milk sample from the clinical mastitis case and 2 follow-up samples collected approximately 2 and 3 wk after ended treatment. Identification of bacteria was carried out using MALDI-TOF on bacterial culture growth. Noninferiority was assessed using unadjusted cure rates and adjusted cure rates from a multivariable mixed logistic regression model. Of the 1,972 clinical mastitis cases registered, 345 (18%) met all criteria for inclusion (full data). The data set was further reduced to 265 cases for the multivariable analysis to include only complete registrations. Streptococcus uberis was the most commonly isolated pathogen. Noninferiority was demonstrated for both unadjusted and adjusted cure rates. The unadjusted cure rates were 76.8% and 83.1% for the local and combined treatments, respectively (full data). The pathogen and somatic cell count before the clinical case had an effect on the efficacy of treatment; thus efficient treatment protocols should be herd- and case-specific. The effect of pathogen and somatic cell count on treatment efficacy was similar irrespective of the treatment protocol. We conclude that bacteriological cure of local penicillin treatment for mild and moderate clinical mastitis cases was noninferior to the combination of local and systemic treatment using a 15% noninferiority margin. This suggests that a potential 16-fold reduction in antimicrobial use per mastitis treatment can be achieved with no adverse effect on cure rate.

ABSTRACT: Lactational treatment of bovine mastitis is a major contributor to antibiotic consumption in dairy cattle and is, therefore, important to address in light of the increasing problem of antibiotic resistance. In this large-scale database-based retrospective observational study, we combined electronic health records and routinely measured somatic cell counts from individual cows to create an overview of lactational mastitis treatment in Danish dairy herds from 2010 to 2019. Furthermore, posttreatment somatic cell count was used to approximate treatment success in terms of cytological cure. A generalized logistic regression with mixed effects was performed to combine knowledge on cow-level factors (treatment-, pathogen-, and cow-related) with the new infection risk at the herd level, and to explore the relative effect on cytological cure. The investigation revealed that the total number of lactational treatments appears to have decreased steadily over the study period, whereas treatment duration increased slightly. The proportion of cases treated with penicillin-based protocols and the proportion of milk samples sent for pathogen analysis also decreased. Meanwhile, results from the statistical analysis confirm the importance of cow-related factors, such as parity and lactation stage, for the probability of cytological cure following lactational treatment of mastitis. However, they also disclose that factors that are easier to adjust, such as optimizing treatment duration, including knowledge on causative pathogens and improving the herd-level new infection risk that can be used to positively influence the outcome. Application of this knowledge could potentially assist in promoting a more prudent use of antibiotics for dairy cattle in the future.

Mastitis is a major health problem for bovines and can be categorized as non-severe or severe, based on clinical symptoms. A severe case of clinical mastitis is usually defined by the cow being affected systemically. It is important to consider how to handle severe cases because these cases can be fatal and cause high production losses. However, there are generally few detailed treatment guidelines. By conducting a scoping review on the topic, we aimed to synthesize the information that is available on treatment and outcomes, as reported from clinical trials and observational studies. This was facilitated by following the PRISMA-guidelines with a stepwise systematic screening of scientific literature on the subject, retrieved via Pubmed and Web of Science, using pre-defined selection criteria. The results yielded a total of 14 reports of treatment and outcomes in cases of naturally occurring severe clinical mastitis. Cross-trial comparison was difficult due to the different exclusion criteria and outcome definitions. Many studies focused on cases caused by gram-negative bacteria treated with intensive antibiotic protocols, often containing antibiotics that are categorized as critical for human health. Few focused on severe cases caused by gram-positive bacteria or on the relative use of non-antibiotic treatment. In general, only a small number of statistically significant differences were found in trials comparing different treatment protocols, with no obvious trends across trials. Our findings emphasize the need for more research into the treatment efficacy of antibiotic and non-antibiotic options for clinically severe mastitis. Furthermore, consideration of how trial conditions relate to the practical circumstances in a field setting could improve the applicability of reported results. This could help to provide practitioners with the information needed to make evidence-based treatment decisions in cases of clinically severe mastitis.

To mitigate ongoing insect biodiversity declines, there is a need for efficient yet accurate monitoring methods. The use of traditional catch-based survey methods is constrained both by costs and need for expertise for manual taxonomic identification. Emerging methods, such as eDNA and robotic sorting, have the potential to reduce workload but still require resource-intensive sample collection in the field. Recently, remote sensing methods such as photonic sensors have shown promise for recording large numbers of insect observations. However, accurately determining species composition in collected data remains a challenge.In this study, we investigated the potential of photonic sensors for quantifying species richness of flying insects in the field and at five sites and compared the results with estimates based on conventional Malaise traps. Firstly, we evaluated two unsupervised clustering methods using a library of measured insect signals from 42 known species. Secondly, we correlated estimated number of clusters in data recorded at five sites with species richness assessment of catches from Malaise traps. This study is based on 84,770 library- and 238,584 field individual insect recordings. Our results demonstrate that both clustering methods perform well and reflect estimates obtained by Malaise traps, indicating the potential of automated insect biodiversity monitoring. This offers the possibility of more efficient but still accurate methods for studying insect biodiversity with broader temporal and spatial coverage.

Abstract Monitoring insects of different species to understand the factors affecting their diversity and decline is a major challenge. Laser remote sensing and spectroscopy offer promising novel solutions to this. Coherent scattering from thin wing membranes also known as wing interference patterns (WIPs) have recently been demonstrated to be species specific. The colors of WIPs arise due to unique fringy spectra, which can be retrieved over long distances. To demonstrate this, a new concept of infrared (950–1650 nm) hyperspectral lidar with 64 spectral bands based on a supercontinuum light source using ray‐tracing and 3D printing is developed. A lidar with an unprecedented number of spectral channels, high signal‐to‐noise ratio, and spatio‐temporal resolution enabling detection of free‐flying insects and their wingbeats. As proof of principle, coherent scatter from a damselfly wing at 87 m distance without averaging (4 ms recording) is retrieved. The fringed signal properties are used to determine an effective wing membrane thickness of 1412 nm with ±4 nm precision matching laboratory recordings of the same wing. Similar signals from free flying insects (2 ms recording) are later recorded. The accuracy and the method's potential are discussed to discriminate species by capturing coherent features from free‐flying insects.

Abstract Background Recent declines of honeybees and simplifications of wild bee communities, at least partly attributed to changes of agricultural landscapes, have worried both the public and the scientific community. To understand how wild and managed bees respond to landscape structure it is essential to investigate their spatial use of foraging habitats. However, such studies are challenging since the foraging behaviour of bees differs between species and can be highly dynamic. Consequently, the necessary data collection is laborious using conventional methods and there is a need for novel methods that allow for automated and continuous monitoring of bees. In this work, we deployed an entomological lidar in a homogenous white clover seed crop and profiled the activity of honeybees and other ambient insects in relation to a cluster of beehives. Results In total, 566,609 insect observations were recorded by the lidar. The total measured range distribution was separated into three groups, out of which two were centered around the beehives and considered to be honeybees, while the remaining group was considered to be wild insects. The validity of this model in separating honeybees from wild insects was verified by the average wing modulation frequency spectra in the dominating range interval for each group. The temporal variation in measured activity of the assumed honeybee observations was well correlated with honeybee activity indirectly estimated using hive scales as well as directly observed using transect counts. Additional insight regarding the three-dimensional distribution of bees close to the hive was provided by alternating the beam between two heights, revealing a “funnel like” distribution around the beehives, widening with height. Conclusions We demonstrate how lidar can record very high numbers of insects during a short time period. In this work, a spatial model, derived from the detection limit of the lidar and two Gaussian distributions of honeybees centered around their hives was sufficient to reproduce the observations of honeybees and background insects. This methodology can in the future provide valuable new information on how external factors influence pollination services and foraging habitat selection and range of both managed bees and wild pollinators.

Abstract Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Results from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and New York State are presented here, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Live daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America are publicly available online. For Italy, the overall sensitivity for EVI was 0.82 (95% Confidence Intervals: 0.75; 0.89) and the specificity was 0.91 (0.88; 0.94). For New York, the corresponding values were 0.55 (0.47; 0.64) and 0.88 (0.84; 0.91). Consecutive issuance of early warnings is a strong indicator of main epidemic waves in any country or state. EVI’s application to data from the current COVID-19 pandemic revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting new waves. The application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks in combination with existing early warning systems will enhance our ability to act swiftly and thereby enhance containment of outbreaks.

Abstract In 2019, it was estimated that more than 50 million captive Atlantic salmon in Norway died in the final stage of their production in marine cages. This mortality represents a significant economic loss for producers and a need to improve welfare for farmed salmon. Single adverse events, such as algal blooms or infectious disease outbreaks, can explain mass mortality in salmon cages. However, little is known about the production, health, or environmental factors that contribute to their baseline mortality during the sea phase. Here we conducted a retrospective study including 1627 Atlantic salmon cohorts put to sea in 2014–2019. We found that sea lice treatments were associated with Atlantic salmon mortality. In particular, the trend towards non-medicinal sea lice treatments, including thermal delousing, increases Atlantic salmon mortality in the same month the treatment is applied. There were differences in mortality among production zones. Stocking month and weight were other important factors, with the lowest mortality in smaller salmon stocked in August–October. Sea surface temperature and salinity also influenced Atlantic salmon mortality. Knowledge of what affects baseline mortality in Norwegian aquaculture can be used as part of syndromic surveillance and to inform salmon producers on farming practices that can reduce mortality.

Abstract The Eurasian spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, is a major pest, capable of killing spruce forests during large population outbreaks. Recorded dispersal distances of individual beetles are typically within hundreds of meters or a few kilometers. However, the connectivity between populations at larger distances and longer time spans and how this is affected by the habitat is less studied, despite its importance for understanding at which distances local outbreaks may spread. Previous population genetic studies in I. typographus typically used low resolution markers. Here, we use genome‐wide data to assess population structure and connectivity of I. typographus in Sweden. We used 152 individuals from 19 population samples, distributed over 830 km from Strömsund (63° 46′ 8″ N) in the north to Nyteboda (56° 8′ 50″ N) in the south, to capture processes at a large regional scale, and a transect sampling design adjacent to a recent outbreak to capture processes at a smaller scale (76 km). Using restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) markers capturing 1409–1997 SNPs throughout the genome, we document a weak genetic structure over the large scale, potentially indicative of high connectivity with extensive gene flow. No differentiation was detected at the smaller scale. We find indications of isolation‐by‐distance both for relative (FST) and absolute divergence (Dxy). The two northernmost populations are most differentiated from the remaining populations, and diverge in parallel to the southern populations for a set of outlier loci. In conclusion, the population structure of I. typographus in Sweden is weak, suggesting a high capacity to disperse and establish outbreak populations in new territories.

To design cost-effective prevention strategies against mastitis in dairy cow farms, knowledge about infection pathways of causative pathogens is necessary. Therefore, we investigated the reservoirs of bacterial strains causing intramammary infections in one dairy cow herd. Quarter foremilk samples (n = 8056) and milking- and housing-related samples (n = 251; from drinking troughs, bedding material, walking areas, cow brushes, fly traps, milking liners, and milker gloves), were collected and examined using culture-based methods. Species were identified with MALDI-TOF MS, and selected Staphylococcus and Streptococcus spp. typed with randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-PCR. Staphylococci were isolated from all and streptococci from most investigated locations. However, only for Staphylococcus aureus, matching strain types (n = 2) were isolated from milk and milking-related samples (milking liners and milker gloves). Staphylococcus epidermidis and Staphylococcus haemolyticus showed a large genetic diversity without any matches of strain types from milk and other samples. Streptococcus uberis was the only Streptococcus spp. isolated from milk and milking- or housing-related samples. However, no matching strains were found. This study underlines the importance of measures preventing the spread of Staphylococcus aureus between quarters during milking.

Abstract Worldwide, farmers use insecticides to prevent crop damage caused by insect pests, while they also rely on insect pollinators to enhance crop yield and other insect as natural enemies of pests. In order to target pesticides to pests only, farmers must know exactly where and when pests and beneficial insects are present in the field. A promising solution to this problem could be optical sensors combined with machine learning. We obtained around 10,000 records of flying insects found in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) crops, using an optical remote sensor and evaluated three different classification methods for the obtained signals, reaching over 80% accuracy. We demonstrate that it is possible to classify insects in flight, making it possible to optimize the application of insecticides in space and time. This will enable a technological leap in precision agriculture, where focus on prudent and environmentally-sensitive use of pesticides is a top priority.

Although Corynebacterium spp. can be regularly associated with subclinical and clinical mastitis cases in dairy cows, knowledge on their reservoirs in dairy farms is sparse. Therefore, samples were collected at 10 visits with 14 day intervals from bedding material (n = 50), drinking troughs (n = 20), different walking areas (n = 60), cow brushes (n = 8), fly traps (n = 4), the passage to pasture (n = 9) as well as milking liners (n = 80) and milker gloves (n = 20) in one dairy cow farm. Additionally, quarter foremilk samples from all lactating cows (approximately 200) were collected at each visit. All samples underwent microbiological examination and cultured isolates were identified using MALDI-TOF MS. Most Corynebacterium spp. that were cultivated from milk were also isolated from the housing environment and milking-related niches (C. amycolatum, C. confusum, C. stationis, C. variabile, C. xerosis) or from milking-related niches only (C. frankenforstense, C. pilosum, C. suicordis). C. bovis was not cultivated from any environmental niche, while being the dominant species in milk samples. This study demonstrates that many Corynebacterium spp. present in milk samples can also be isolated from the cows’ environment. For C. bovis, the most relevant Corynebacterium species with regard to intramammary infections, it indicates that environmental reservoirs are of little relevance.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an economically important disease in Australian beef farming. The disease typically results in low-level production losses that can be difficult to detect for several years. Simulation modeling can be used to support the decision to control BVDV; however, current BVDV simulation models do not adequately reflect the extensive farming environment of Australian beef production. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a disease simulation model to explore the impact of BVDV on beef cattle production in south-east Australia. A dynamic, individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time simulation model was created to simulate within-herd transmission of BVDV in a seasonal, self-replacing beef herd. We used the model to simulate the effect of herd size and BVDV introduction time on disease transmission and assessed the short- and long-term impact of BVDV on production outputs that influence the economic performance of beef farms. We found that BVDV can become established in a herd after a single PI introduction in 60% of cases, most frequently associated with the breeding period. The initial impact of BVDV will be more severe in smaller herds, although self-elimination is more likely in small herds than in larger herds, in which there is a 23% chance that the virus can persist for >15 years following a single incursion in a herd with 800 breeders. The number and weight of steers sold was reduced in the presence of BVDV and the results demonstrated that repeat incursions exacerbate long-term production losses, even when annual losses appear marginal. This model reflects the short- and long-term production losses attributed to BVDV in beef herds in southeast Australia and provides a foundation from which the influence and economic utility of BVDV prevention in Australian beef herds can be assessed.

Intramammary infections (IMI) can cause mastitis, a prevalent and costly infectious disease in dairy cattle worldwide. The IMI is caused by a range of bacteria, including Corynebacterium spp. Knowledge of the transmission dynamics of pathogens is generally sparse but essential to support decision-making; such as input to bioeconomic models. In this observational study, we explored the transmission dynamics of Corynebacterium spp. in two different Danish dairy cattle herds by testing monthly quarter-level milk samples of all lactating cows for 1 year. We estimated the prevalence for herd 1 and 2 to 24 and 11.7%, respectively, and the mean quarter-level incidence to be 8 and 6.5% per month, respectively. We compared a model for indirect transmission via the environment with a model with the direct contagious transmission and found that the latter model best explained the data. We estimated the daily mean quarter-level transmission rate to be 0.016 and 0.018 cases/quarter-day for herd 1 and 2, respectively. The mean recovery rate was 0.012 and 0.016 for herd 1 and 2, respectively. Consequently, the basic reproduction number for herd 1 and 2 was 1.27 and 1.10, respectively. This study highlights that Corynebacterium spp. can be prevalent within a herd and transmit directly between cows. Thus, future studies should investigate cost-effective control measures against Corynebacterium spp.

Computer-based disease spread models are frequently used in veterinary science to simulate disease spread. They are used to predict the impacts of the disease, plan and assess surveillance, or control strategies, and provide insights about disease causation by comparing model outputs with real life data. There are many types of disease spread models, and here we present and describe the implementation of a particular type: individual-based models. Our aim is to provide a practical introduction to building individual-based disease spread models. We also introduce code examples with the goal to make these techniques more accessible to those who are new to the field. We describe the important steps in building such models before, during and after the programming stage, including model verification (to ensure that the model does what was intended), validation (to investigate whether the model results reflect the modeled system), and convergence analysis (to ensure models of endemic diseases are stable before outputs are collected). We also describe how sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the potential impact of uncertainty about model parameters. Finally, we provide an overview of some interesting recent developments in the field of disease spread models.

Lack of tools for detailed, real-time observation of mosquito behavior with high spatio-temporal resolution limits progress towards improved malaria vector control. We deployed a high-resolution entomological lidar to monitor a half-kilometer static transect positioned over rice fields outside a Tanzanian village. A quarter of a million in situ insect observations were classified, and several insect taxa were identified based on their modulation signatures. We observed distinct range distributions of male and female mosquitoes in relation to the village periphery, and spatio-temporal behavioral features, such as swarming. Furthermore, we observed that the spatial distributions of males and females change independently of each other during the day, and were able to estimate the daily dispersal of mosquitoes towards and away from the village. The findings of this study demonstrate how lidar-based monitoring could dramatically improve our understanding of malaria vector ecology and control options.

Intramammary infection (IMI) can cause mastitis, which is one of the costliest and most prevalent diseases in dairy cattle herds. Somatic cell count (SCC) is a well-established parameter to indicate IMI, and it represents the total count of immune cells in the milk. The differential somatic cell count (DSCC) has also long been suggested to indicate IMI, but no machine was available until recently to provide this parameter automatically. Two new machines have recently been introduced to measure the milk DSCC as an additional indicator of IMI. Here we provide insights about the DSCC measured by these two machines and the value it may provide for udder health management, based on the available literature. We also provide perspectives for future research to investigate potential value in using the DSCC to improve udder health.

The worldwide outbreak of Sars-CoV-2 resulted in modelers from diverse fields being called upon to help predict the spread of the disease, resulting in many new collaborations between different institutions. We here present our experience with bringing our skills as veterinary disease modelers to bear on the field of human epidemiology, building models as tools for decision makers, and bridging the gap between the medical and veterinary fields. We describe and compare the key steps taken in modeling the Sars-CoV-2 outbreak: criteria for model choices, model structure, contact structure between individuals, transmission parameters, data availability, model validation, and disease management. Finally, we address how to improve on the contingency infrastructure available for Sars-CoV-2.

Artiklen beskriver etableringen og justeringen efter den første gennemførelse af et treugers-kursus på DTU i simuleringsmodeller for sygdomsspredning. Deltagerne skal både lære de nødvendige programmeringsfærdigheder til at kunne skrive si-muleringskoden, og de skal lære teori og praksis omkring simulering. Vi fokuserer her på tre udfordringer omkring dette kursus. Kurset er delt op i en off-campus-uge, hvor de studerende skal lære at programmere, og dernæst to on-campus-uger, hvor de skal lære at simulere og bruger deres programmeringsfærdigheder på en selv-valgt projektopgave. Med få justeringer blev off-campus-delen optimeret, så den understøtter on-campus-delen. De studerende fik mere fleksibilitet i arbejdstiden den første uge, og de fagligt svage studerende kunne bruge mere tid, mens kursets forløb blev varieret. Her beskrives styrker og svagheder ved gennemførelsen af kur-set som blended learning. Generelt viste blended learning sig at være en udmærket metode til at give studerende og undervisere mere fleksibilitet

Abstract Background Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Outbreaks of both BTV and SBV have affected large parts of Europe. The spread of these diseases depends largely on vector distribution and abundance. The aim of this analysis was to identify and quantify major spatial patterns and temporal trends in the distribution and seasonal variation of observed Culicoides abundance in nine countries in Europe. Methods We gathered existing Culicoides data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. In total, 31,429 Culicoides trap collections were available from 904 ruminant farms across these countries between 2007 and 2013. Results The Obsoletus ensemble was distributed widely in Europe and accounted for 83% of all 8,842,998 Culicoides specimens in the dataset, with the highest mean monthly abundance recorded in France, Germany and southern Norway. The Pulicaris ensemble accounted for only 12% of the specimens and had a relatively southerly and easterly spatial distribution compared to the Obsoletus ensemble. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was only found in Spain and the southernmost part of France. There was a clear spatial trend in the accumulated annual abundance from southern to northern Europe, with the Obsoletus ensemble steadily increasing from 4000 per year in southern Europe to 500,000 in Scandinavia. The Pulicaris ensemble showed a very different pattern, with an increase in the accumulated annual abundance from 1600 in Spain, peaking at 41,000 in northern Germany and then decreasing again toward northern latitudes. For the two species ensembles and C. imicola, the season began between January and April, with later start dates and increasingly shorter vector seasons at more northerly latitudes. Conclusion We present the first maps of seasonal Culicoides abundance in large parts of Europe covering a gradient from southern Spain to northern Scandinavia. The identified temporal trends and spatial patterns are useful for planning the allocation of resources for international prevention and surveillance programmes in the European Union.

Abstract We quantified the difference between the meteorological temperature recorded by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) weather stations and the actual microclimatic temperatures at two or three different heights at six potential insect habitats. We then compared the impact of the hourly temperature on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of six pathogens. Finally, we developed a regression model, enabling us to predict the microclimatic temperatures of different habitats based on five standard meteorological parameters readily available from any meteorological institution. Microclimatic habitats were on average 3.5–5 °C warmer than the DMI recorded temperatures during midday and 1–3 °C cooler at midnight. The estimated EIP for five of the six microclimatic habitats was shorter than the estimates based on DMI temperatures for all pathogens studied. The microclimatic temperatures also predicted a longer season for virus development compared to DMI temperatures. Based on DMI data of hourly temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, rain and humidity, we were able to predict the microclimatic temperature of different habitats with an R2 of 0.87–0.96. Using only meteorological temperatures for vector-borne disease transmission models may substantially underestimate both the daily potential for virus development and the duration of the potential transmission season.

Abstract Background Paratuberculosis (PTB) is a chronic disease which may lead to reduced milk yield, lower animal welfare and death in cattle. The causative agent is Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). The economic consequences are particularly important incentives in the control and eradication of the infection. One strategy to control PTB in a herd is to purchase animals from farms with a low risk of MAP infection. We wanted to investigate the epidemiological and economic consequences of buying livestock from different supplier farms of low, medium or high risk, as well as farms with unknown status. We also wanted to estimate the probability of spontaneous fadeout if the farmer of an initially MAP-free herd bought a specified number of infected animals in a single year, or continually bought infected animals. This was achieved through simulation modeling, and the effects of consistently introducing one, five or ten infected animals annually into an initially infection-free herd was also modeled. Results Our findings show that once infected, a farm can relatively safely purchase animals from other low and medium-risk farms without experiencing an increase in the prevalence, highlighting the importance of certification programmes. Furthermore, farms free of MAP are highly susceptible and cannot purchase more than a small number of animals per year without having a high risk of being infected. The probability of spontaneous fadeout after 10 years was 82% when introducing a single infected animal into an initially MAP-free herd. When purchasing ten infected animals, this probability was 46%. The continual purchase of infected animals resulted in very low probabilities of spontaneous fadeout. Conclusions We demonstrated that MAP-free farms can purchase a small number of animals, preferably from certified farms, each year and still remain free of MAP. Already infected farms have little risk of increasing the prevalence on a farm when purchasing animals from other farms.

Abstract Background Culicoides gornostaevae Mirzaeva, 1984, known previously only from Siberia, is a boreal species included into the Obsoletus group of Culicoides sg. Avaritia. Members of the subgenus can act as vectors of various diseases. In Europe they are involved in the transmission of the Schmallenberg virus and bluetongue virus. Findings Culicoides gornostaevae Mirzaeva, 1984 is reported for the first time in Europe with new country records from Norway, Poland and Sweden. Conclusions Culicoides gornostaevae Mirzaeva, 1984 has not been previously mentioned from Europe, even though there has been an extensive monitoring of Culicoides species during the last decades. Most probably this species has been notoriously overlooked in the materials, because of the problems with identification of the females of the subgenus Avaritia. Similar to other species of the Obsoletus group, C. gornostaevae should be regarded as a possible vector for Schmallenberg and bluetongue virus.

Typically, central milk recording data from dairy herds are recorded less than monthly. Over-fitting early in lactation periods is a challenge, which we explored in different ways by reducing the number of parameters needed to describe the milk yield and somatic cell count of individual cows. Furthermore, we investigated how the parameters of lactation models correlate between parities and from dam to offspring. The aim of the study was to provide simple and robust models for cow level milk yield and somatic cell count (SCC) for fitting to sparse data to parameterise herd- and cow-specific simulation of dairy herds.Data from 610 Danish Holstein herds were used to determine parity traits in milk production regarding milk yield and SCC of individual cows. Parity was stratified in first, second and third and higher for milk, and first to sixth and higher for SCC. Fitting of herd level parameters allowed for cow level lactation curves with three, two or one-parameters per lactation. Correlations of milk yield and SCC were estimated between lactations and between dam and offspring.The shape of the lactation curves varied markedly between farms. The correlation between lactations for milk yield and SCC were 0.2-0.6 and significant on more than 95% of farms. The variation in the daily milk yield was observed to be a source of variation to the SCC, and the total SCC was less correlated with the milk production than somatic cells per ml. A positive correlation was found between relative levels of the total SCC and the milk yield.The variation of lactation and SCC curves between farms highlights the importance of a herd level approach. The one-parameter per cow model using a herd level curve allows for estimating the cow production level from first the recording in the parity, while a two-parameter model requires more recordings for a credible estimate, but may more precisely predict persistence, and given the independence of parameters, these can be easily drawn for use in simulation models. We also conclude that using total SCC may stabilise models and therefore, the dilution factor is of importance in Danish Holstein.

We describe a new mechanistic bio-economic model for simulating the spread of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build-up in five separate areas of the farm; in utero infection; infection via colostrum and waste milk, and it allows for realistic culling (i.e. due to other diseases) by including a ranking system. We calibrated the model using a unique dataset from Denmark, including 102 random farms with no control actions against spread of MAP. Likewise, four control actions recommended in the Danish MAP control program were implemented in the model based on reported management strategies in Danish dairy herds in a MAP control scheme. We tested the model parameterization in a sensitivity analysis. We show that a test-and-cull strategy is on average the most cost-effective solution to decrease the prevalence and increase the total net revenue on a farm with low hygiene, but not more profitable than no control strategy on a farm with average hygiene. Although it is possible to eradicate MAP from the farm by implementing all four control actions from the Danish MAP control program, it was not economically attractive since the expenses for the control actions outweigh the benefits. Furthermore, the three most popular control actions against the spread of MAP on the farm were found to be costly and inefficient in lowering the prevalence when used independently.

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection that in dairy cattle causes reduced milk yield, weight loss, and ultimately fatal diarrhea. Subclinical animals can excrete bacteria (Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis, MAP) in feces and infect other animals. Farmers identify the infectious animals through a variety of test-strategies, but are challenged by the lack of perfect tests. Frequent testing increases the sensitivity but the costs of testing are a cause of concern for farmers. Here, we used a herd simulation model using milk ELISA tests to evaluate the epidemiological and economic consequences of continuously adapting the sampling interval in response to the estimated true prevalence in the herd. The key results were that the true prevalence was greatly affected by the hygiene level and to some extent by the test-frequency. Furthermore, the choice of prevalence that will be tolerated in a control scenario had a major impact on the true prevalence in the normal hygiene setting, but less so when the hygiene was poor. The net revenue is not greatly affected by the test-strategy, because of the general variation in net revenues between farms. An exception to this is the low hygiene herd, where frequent testing results in lower revenue. When we look at the probability of eradication, then it is correlated with the testing frequency and the target prevalence during the control phase. The probability of eradication is low in the low hygiene herd, and a test-and-cull strategy should probably not be the primary strategy in this herd. Based on this study we suggest that, in order to control MAP, the standard Danish dairy farm should use an adaptive strategy where a short sampling interval of three months is used when the estimated true prevalence is above 1%, and otherwise use a long sampling interval of one year.

In a previous study from 2014 it was found that US Holstein cows that gave birth to heifer calves produced more milk than cows having bull calves. We wanted to assess whether this is also true for Danish cattle. Data from 578 Danish Holstein herds were analysed with a mixed effect model and contrary to the findings in the US, we found that cows produced higher volumes of milk if they had a bull calf compared to a heifer calf. We found a significantly higher milk production of 0.28% in the first lactation period for cows giving birth to a bull calf, compared to a heifer calf. This difference was even higher when cows gave birth to another bull calf, so having two bull calves resulted in a difference of 0.52% in milk production compared to any other combination of sex of the offspring. Furthermore, we found that farmer assisted calvings were associated with a higher milk yield. Cows with no farmer assistance or with veterinary assistance during the most recent calving produced less milk. There were also indications that dams would favor a bull fetus by decreasing milk production during the second pregnancy if the calf born in the first parity was a heifer. We hypothesize that size of calves is a confounding factor for milk production. However, calving weight was not available in the present data set to test this hypothesis.

Studying the dispersal of small flying insects such as Culicoides constitutes a great challenge due to huge population sizes and lack of a method to efficiently mark and objectively detect many specimens at a time. We here describe a novel mark-release-recapture method for Culicoides in the field using fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC) as marking agent without anaesthesia. Using a plate scanner, this detection technique can be used to analyse thousands of individual Culicoides specimens per day at a reasonable cost. We marked and released an estimated 853 specimens of the Pulicaris group and 607 specimens of the Obsoletus group on a cattle farm in Denmark. An estimated 9,090 (8,918-9,260) Obsoletus group specimens and 14,272 (14,194-14,448) Pulicaris group specimens were captured in the surroundings and subsequently analysed. Two (0.3%) Obsoletus group specimens and 28 (4.6%) Pulicaris group specimens were recaptured. The two recaptured Obsoletus group specimens were caught at the release point on the night following release. Eight (29%) of the recaptured Pulicaris group specimens were caught at a pig farm 1,750 m upwind from the release point. Five of these were recaptured on the night following release and the three other were recaptured on the second night after release. This is the first time that movement of Culicoides vectors between farms in Europe has been directly quantified. The findings suggest an extensive and rapid exchange of disease vectors between farms. Rapid movement of vectors between neighboring farms may explain the the high rate of spatial spread of Schmallenberg and bluetongue virus (BTV) in northern Europe.