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Desertification is one of the major environmental problems that humanity faces today, since it reduces the availability of ecosystem services, increases food insecurity and poverty, and affects the wellbeing of societies. The analysis of the process is extremely complex, since the phenomenon takes place at different temporal and spatial scales, influenced by different factors. It is widely recognized that land use/land cover change (LULC) is one of the main drivers of desertification since environmental degradation is always triggers by the removal of natural vegetation cover. In this study, a LULC change model was calibrated and validated using climate model simulations, demographic data and land susceptibility maps for the historical period 2000–2010. Then, desertification susceptibility of the Northeast of Brazil were estimated by integrating LULC trajectories with three different downscaled climate change scenarios and projection of population growth for the period 2015–2025, 2025–2035, and 2035–2045 for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicated that, between 2010 and 2035–2045, areas of moderate susceptibility decreased 10.34%, while areas of high susceptibility increased 12.28% in the case of the RCP4.5. For the RCP8.5 scenario, those numbers are −16.85% for moderate susceptibility, and +19.62% for high susceptibility. Among all indicators included in the analysis, land management was the main driver of desertification susceptibility, which indicates that mitigation and adaptation strategies for the region should pursue sustainable land use policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth of forestry, mainly eucalyptus, driven by the industry demand for pulp and paper, has significantly changed the landscape around the globe. The so-called agroforestry systems have the advantage of reducing pressure on native forests in different regions of the world. However, this practice can bring impacts to the environment, and contribute to the intensification of agrarian conflicts. The aim of this research is to expose the intrinsic relationship between the dynamic of the forestry expansion in the São Paulo area of the Paraíba Valley, one of the largest agro-producing regions in Brazil, and the regional socioeconomical structure. These results may support further studies in order to define the possibilities and limitations of this type of economic use. With the use of remote sensing techniques using Landsat satellite images, we measured the areas planted with eucalyptus in the study area (Paraíba Valley) between 1986 and 2010. This area was pioneer in this kind of forestry and still is one of the largest producers while still expanding. In the period studied, among positive and negative variations, the planted area increased from approximately 55,000 ha in 1986 to more than 60,000 ha in 2010. This change was driven by industrial demand, as shown by the IBGE data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]