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Recently-developed Holocene lake-level reconstructions from the Rocky Mountains offer a quantitative target for testing the skill of state-of-the-art climate system models in simulating hydroclimate change. Here, we use a combination of hydrologic models of catchment streamflow, lake energy balance, and lake water balance to simulate lake level at Little Windy Hill Pond (LWH) in the Medicine Bow Range of Wyoming for a period of severe drought during the mid-Holocene (MH; approximately 6000 years ago). Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output to drive our hydrologic models, we find that none of our simulations reproduce the significantly lowered lake levels at LWH during the MH. Rather, simulated hydroclimate changes for the MH are modest (

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format. Fil: Kaufman, Darrell. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: McKay, Nicholas. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Routson, Cody. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Erb, Michael. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Davis, Basil. University Of Lausanne; Suiza Fil: Heiri, Oliver. University Of Basel; Suiza Fil: Jaccard, Samuel. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Tierney, Jessica. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Dätwyler, Christoph. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Axford, Yarrow. Northwestern University; Estados Unidos Fil: Brussel, Thomas. University of Utah; Estados Unidos Fil: Cartapanis, Olivier. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Chase, Brian. Universite de Montpellier; Francia Fil: Dawson, Andria. Mount Royal University; Canadá Fil: de Vernal, Anne. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá Fil: Engels, Stefan. University of London; Reino Unido Fil: Jonkers, Lukas. University Of Bremen; Alemania Fil: Marsicek, Jeremiah. University of Wisconsin-Madison; Estados Unidos Fil: Moffa Sánchez, Paola. University of Durham; Reino Unido Fil: Morrill, Carrie. University of Colorado; Estados Unidos Fil: Orsi, Anais. Université Paris-Saclay; Francia Fil: Rehfeld, Kira. Heidelberg University; Alemania Fil: Saunders, Krystyna. Australian Nuclear Science And Technology Organisation; Australia Fil: Sommer, Philipp. University Of Lausanne; Suiza Fil: Thomas, Elizabeth. University At Buffalo; Estados Unidos Fil: Tonello, Marcela Sandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina Fil: Tóth, Mónika. Balaton Limnological Institute; Hungría Fil: Vachula, Richard. Brown University; Estados Unidos Fil: Andreev, Andrei. Alfred Wegener Institut Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research; Alemania Fil: Bertrand, Sebastien. Ghent University; Bélgica Fil: Massaferro, Julieta. Administración de Parques Nacionales. Parque Nacional "Nahuel Huapi"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format., Measurement(s)climateTechnology Type(s)digital curationFactor Type(s)temporal interval • geographic location • proxy typeSample Characteristic - Environmentclimate systemSample Characteristic - LocationEarth (planet) Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/27330

Future hydroclimate change is expected to generally follow a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier (WWDD) pattern, yet key uncertainties remain regionally and over land. It has been previously hypothesized that lake levels of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) could map a reverse analog to future hydroclimate changes due to reduction of CO2 levels at this time. Potential complications to this approach include, however, the confounding effects of factors such as the Laurentide Ice Sheet and lake evaporation changes. Using the ensemble output of six coupled climate models, lake energy and water balance models, an atmospheric moisture budget analysis, and additional CO2 sensitivity experiments, we assess the effectiveness of the LGM as a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes for a transect from the drylands of North America to southern South America. The model ensemble successfully simulates the general pattern of lower tropical lake levels and higher extratropical lake levels at LGM, matching 82% of the lake proxy records. The greatest model-data mismatch occurs in tropical and extratropical South America, potentially as a result of underestimated changes in temperature and surface evaporation. Thermodynamic processes of the mean circulation best explain the direction of lake changes observed in the proxy record, particularly in the tropics and Pacific coasts of the extratropics, and produce a WWDD pattern. CO2 forcing alone cannot account for LGM lake level changes, however, as the enhanced cooling from the Laurentide ice sheet appears necessary to generate LGM dry anomalies in the tropics and to deepen anomalies in the extratropics. LGM performance as a reverse analog is regionally dependent as anti-correlation between LGM and future P − E is not uniformly observed across the study domain.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that there are major differences in the timing of maximum Holocene precipitation between the monsoonal East Asia and westerly dominated Central Asia, but it is unclear if the moisture differences are also associated with corresponding temperature contrasts. Here we present the first alkenone-based paleotemperature reconstructions for the past 21 kyr from Lake Balikun, central Asia. We show, unlike the initiation of Holocene warm conditions at ∼11 kyr BP in the monsoon regions, the arid central Asia remained in a glacial-like cold condition prior to 8 kyr BP and experienced abrupt warming of ∼9 °C after the collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet. Comparison with pollen and other geochemical data indicates the abrupt warming is closely associated with major increase in the moisture supply to the region. Together, our multiproxy data indicate ∼2 thousand years delay of temperature and moisture optimum relative to local summer insolation maximum, suggesting major influence of the Laurentide ice sheet and other high latitude ice sheet forcings on the regional atmospheric circulation. In addition, our data reveal a temperature drop by ∼4 °C around 4 kyr BP lasting multiple centuries, coinciding with severe increases in aridity previously reported based on multiproxy data. In contrast, model simulations display a much less pronounced delay in the initiation of Holocene warm conditions, raising unresolved questions about the relative importance of local radiative forcing and high-latitude ice on temperature in this region.

The Late-Quaternary climate of Beringia remains unresolved despite the region's role in modulating glacial-interglacial climate and as the likely conduit for human dispersal into the Americas. Here, we investigate Beringian temperature change using an ∼32,000-year lacustrine record of leaf wax hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2Hwax) from Arctic Alaska. Based on Monte Carlo iterations accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, the reconstructed summertime temperatures were ∼3 °C colder (range: −8 to +3 °C) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21-25 ka) than the pre-industrial era (PI; 2–0.1 ka). This ice-age summer cooling is substantially smaller than in other parts of the Arctic, reflecting altered atmospheric circulation and increased continentality which weakened glacial cooling in the region. Deglacial warming was punctuated by abrupt events that are largely synchronous with events seen in Greenland ice cores that originate in the North Atlantic but which are also controlled locally, such as by the opening of the Bering Strait between 13.4 and 11 ka. Our reconstruction, together with climate modeling experiments, indicates that Beringia responds more strongly to North Atlantic freshwater forcing under modern-day, open-Bering Strait conditions than under glacial conditions. Furthermore, a 2 °C increase (Monte Carlo range: −1 to +5 °C) over the anthropogenic era reverses a 6 °C decline (Monte Carlo range: −10 to 0 °C) through the Holocene, indicating that recent warming in Arctic Alaska has not surpassed peak Holocene summer warmth.

Lake Qinghai, located on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau north of the modern maximum summer monsoon extent, is well situated to record northward advances of the summer monsoon. Existing paleoclimate records contain conflicting evidence for the timing of summer monsoon advance into this region: an early arrival pre-Younger Dryas or a late arrival at the beginning of the Holocene. A 30-kyr-long leaf wax hydrogen isotope ( n -alkanoic acid, δ 2 H wax ) record from Lake Qinghai helps to address this discrepancy by elucidating changes in the three main moisture sources in this region: southerly (summer monsoon), northwesterly, and local precipitation. Lake Qinghai δ 2 H wax indicates that the arid glacial period was dominated by northwesterly moisture. Extremely arid conditions prevailed from 15 to 14 ka, likely because westerly winds were weakening and the summer monsoon had not yet reached this region. This arid period ended by 13.6 ka when small amounts of summer monsoon precipitation reached Lake Qinghai. Summer monsoon moisture subsequently retreated off of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the Younger Dryas and re-advanced in the early Holocene. Summer monsoon precipitation decreased progressively throughout the Holocene in response to decreasing summer insolation, and the modern northwesterly- and local-dominated moisture regime was attained ca. 2.6 ka. Lake Qinghai δ 2 H wax demonstrates that the summer monsoon extent was dynamic during the past 30 kyr, responding dramatically to insolation and North Atlantic circulation changes. Moreover, Lake Qinghai δ 2 H wax demonstrates that local and northwesterly air masses are important moisture sources to the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and should be considered when reconstructing past hydroclimate in this region.

Global surface temperature changes and their drivers during the Holocene Epoch remain controversial. Syntheses of proxy data indicate that global mean annual temperature declined from the mid-Holocene until the Pre-industrial Era, a trend linked to decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. In contrast, global climate models simulate increasing mean annual temperatures driven by retreating ice sheets and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This proxy-model disagreement may originate from a warm season bias in Northern Hemisphere proxy reconstructions, highlighting the need for new proxies that quantify cold season temperature, especially in Arctic regions that were devoid of continental ice sheets during the Holocene. Here, we present a new 16,000-year winter-spring temperature reconstruction derived from the unsaturation ratio of alkenones ( U 37 K ) in a continuous sedimentary sequence from Lake E5, northern Alaska. We employ a thermodynamic lake model to convert alkenone-inferred lake temperatures into winter-spring air temperature anomalies and we contextualize our proxy reconstruction with climate model output from the region. Our reconstruction shows that winter-spring temperatures warmed rapidly during the deglaciation at 16 and 14 thousand years before present and continued to warm gradually throughout the middle and late Holocene (0.12–0.28 °C/thousand years) in concert with regional sea surface temperature and sea ice records. Our results are consistent with climate model simulations and we attribute Holocene warming to rising winter-spring insolation, radiative forcing from rising greenhouse gas concentrations and regional feedbacks. Our reconstructed cold season warming equaled or exceeded summer cooling according to a regional synthesis of temperature records, suggesting that seasonal biases in temperature reconstructions may account for proxy-model disagreements in Holocene temperature trends from Eastern Beringia.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits significant variability on intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal time scales and the variability can be extended to Holocene centennial and millennial scales. Previous Holocene EAWM proxy data records, which were mostly located in Central, Eastern and Southern China, did not show a consistent Holocene EAWM history. Therefore, it is difficult to provide insights into mechanisms of the long-term winter monsoon variability on the basis of the records. Eolian sediments at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert, Western China, are sensitive to the EAWM changes and less affected by the East Asian summer monsoon due to an obstruction of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. This paper presents a comparison between a well-dated Holocene EAWM record and coupled climate model simulations, so as to explore physical processes and influencing factors of the Holocene EAWM. Sediment samples from two Holocene eolian sedimentary sections [Huangyanghe (a) and Huangyanghe (b)] were acquired at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert. Chronologies were established based on twenty bulk organic matter AMS 14C ages and five pollen concentrates AMS 14C ages. Proxy data, including grain-size, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility and carbonate content were obtained from the two eolian sections. The grain-size standard deviation model was applied to determine components sensitive to variability of the Holocene EAWM. After a comparison of environmentally-sensitive grain-size components and proxy data, the 20–200 μm component at the Huangyanghe (a) and the 20–159 μm component at the Huangyanghe (b) section were selected as indicators of the Holocene EAWM, which show a strong early Holocene winter monsoon and a decline of the winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene. We also present equilibrium and transient simulations of the climate evolution for the Holocene using a state-of-art coupled climate model: the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Indices for the Holocene EAWM were calculated and are consistent with the reconstructed Holocene EAWM intensity. The simulations indicate that orbital forcing effects on the land-sea temperature and sea level pressure contrast can account for the observed EAWM trends. Other forcings that were present in the early Holocene, including the remnant Laurentide ice sheet and meltwater forcing in the North Atlantic, were not responsible for the Holocene trends.

The 8.2ka event is a key test case for simulating the coupled climate response to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Recent advances in quantifying freshwater fluxes at 8.2ka from the proxy record have improved the realism of the forcing magnitude in model simulations, yet this forcing is still generally applied in an unrealistic geographic manner, across most of the Labrador Sea rather than just along the Labrador coast. Previous simulations with eddy- resolving ocean models have come to conflicting conclusions regarding the ability of such a coastally confined flow to impact the AMOC. These simulations have also not incorporated full atmosphere models nor have they used the new meltwater forcing values for 8.2ka. We use the Community Climate System Model, version 3, with an ocean model resolution only slightly coarser than that used in previous eddy-resolving simulations, to test the sensitivity to freshwater forcing location. When revised freshwater forcing is applied across the Labrador Sea, the AMOC is reduced by similar to 40% and climate anomalies compare well with proxy records of the 8.2ka event in terms of magnitude and duration. When the forcing is added just along the Labrador coast, however, most meltwater joins the subtropical gyre and travels to the subtropics with minor impact to the AMOC (similar to 10% decrease). It is likely that model biases in the placement of the North Atlantic Current remain an important limitation for correctly simulating the 8.2ka event.

Plants using the C 4 (Hatch-Slack) photosynthetic pathway are key for global food production and account for ca 25% of terrestrial primary productivity, mostly in relatively warm, dry regions. The discovery of modern naturally-occurring C 4 plant species at elevations up to 4500 m in Tibet and 3000 m in Africa and South America, however, suggests that C 4 plants are present in a wider range of environments than previously thought. Environmental conditions on the Tibetan Plateau, including high irradiance, rainfall focused in summer, and saline soils, can favor C 4 plants by offsetting the deleterious effects of low growing season temperature. We present evidence based on leaf wax carbon isotope ratios from Lake Qinghai that C 4 plants accounted for 50% of terrestrial primary productivity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau throughout the Lateglacial and early Holocene. Despite cold conditions, C 4 plants flourished due to a combination of factors, including maximum summer insolation, pCO 2 ca 250 ppmv, and sufficient summer precipitation. The modern C 3 plant-dominated ecosystem around Lake Qinghai was established ca 6 thousand years ago as pCO 2 increased and summer temperature and precipitation decreased. C 4 plants were also intermittently abundant during the Last Glacial period; we propose that C 4 plants contributed a significant portion of local primary productivity by colonizing the exposed, saline Qinghai Lake bed during low stands. Our results contrast with state-of-the-art ecosystem models that simulate 4 plant abundance on the Tibetan Plateau in modern and past environments. The past abundance of C 4 plants on the Tibetan Plateau suggests a wider temperature range for C 4 plants than can be inferred from modern distributions and model simulations, and provides paleoecological evidence to support recent findings that C 4 plant evolution and distribution was determined by a combination of climatic and environmental factors (temperature, irradiance, precipitation amount and seasonality, and soil salinity). Moreover, this finding highlights the exceptional sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems to environmental change, and provides critical benchmarks for ecosystem model validation.

This synthesis of thirty-six sites (sixty cores with over 27 000 measurements) located around the world facilitates scientific research on the climate of the last 21 000 years ago obtained from oxygen isotope ( or delta-O-18) measurements. Oxygen isotopes in speleothem calcite record the influence of ambient temperature and the isotopic composition of the source water, the latter providing evidence of hydrologic variability and change. Compared to paleoclimate proxies from sedimentary archives, the age uncertainty is unusually small, around +/−100 years for the last 21 000-year interval. Using data contributed to the World Data Center (WDC) for Paleoclimatology, we have created consistently formatted data files for individual sites as well as composite dataset of annual to millennial resolution. These individual files also contain the chronology information about the sites. The data are useful in understanding hydrologic variability at local and regional scales, such as the Asian summer monsoon and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (as discussed in the underlying source publications), and should also be useful in understanding large-scale aspects of hydrologic change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

Previous model experiments of the 8.2 ka event forced by the drainage of Lake Agassiz often do not produce climate anomalies as long as those inferred from proxies. In addition to the Agassiz forcing, there is new evidence for significant amounts of freshwater entering the ocean at 8.2 ka from the disintegration of the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS). We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to test the contribution of this additional meltwater flux. Similar to previous model experiments, we find that the estimated freshwater forcing from Lake Agassiz is capable of sustaining ocean and climate anomalies for only two to three decades, much shorter than the event duration of ~150 years in proxies. Using new estimates of the LIS freshwater flux (~0.13 Sv for 100 years) from the collapse of the Hudson Bay ice dome in addition to the Agassiz drainage, the CCSM3 generates climate anomalies with a magnitude and duration that match within error those from proxies. This result is insensitive to the duration of freshwater release, a major uncertainty, if the total volume remains the same. An analysis of the modeled North Atlantic freshwater budget indicates that the Agassiz drainage is rapidly transported out of the North Atlantic while the LIS contribution generates longer-lasting freshwater anomalies that are also subject to recirculation by the subtropical gyre back into the North Atlantic. Thus, the meltwater flux originating from the LIS appears to be more important than the Agassiz drainage in generating 8.2 ka climate anomalies and is one way to reconcile some model-data discrepancies.

The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) now includes the 8.2 ka event as a test of model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing. To provide benchmarks for intercomparison, we compiled and analyzed high-resolution records spanning this event. Two previously-described anomaly patterns that emerge are cooling around the North Atlantic and drier conditions in the Northern Hemisphere tropics. Newer to this compilation are more robustly-defined wetter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics and regionally-limited warming in the Southern Hemisphere. Most anomalies around the globe lasted on the order of 100 to 150 yr. More quantitative reconstructions are now available and indicate cooling of 1.0 to 1.2 °C and a ~20% decrease in precipitation in parts of Europe, as well as spatial gradients in δ18O from the high to low latitudes. Unresolved questions remain about the seasonality of the climate response to freshwater forcing and the extent to which the bipolar seesaw operated in the early Holocene.

[1] The thermometer-based global surface temperature time series (GST) commands a prominent role in the evidence for global warming, yet this record has considerable uncertainty. An independent record with better geographic coverage would be valuable in understanding recent change in the context of natural variability. We compiled the Paleo Index (PI) from 173 temperature-sensitive proxy time series (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, historical documents). Each series was normalized to produce index values of change relative to a 1901–2000 base period; the index values were then averaged. From 1880 to 1995, the index trends significantly upward, similar to the GST. Smaller-scale aspects of the GST including two warming trends and a warm interval during the 1940s are also observed in the PI. The PI extends to 1730 with 67 records. The upward trend appears to begin in the early 19th century but the year-to-year variability is large and the 1730–1929 trend is small.

Using monsoonal and arid Central Asia as a case study, we have compiled lake level information from proxy records for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and compared these to the simulated hydrologic cycle from four 21 ka model experiments completed for the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, phase 2 (PMIP2). Our new review of proxy records indicates that lake levels were nearly all lower at LGM compared to the pre-industrial across Asia. This water-balance pattern is largely reproduced by all four models and results from decreased precipitation during the LGM. An offline lake energy balance model forced with output from the PMIP2 models shows that lake evaporation also significantly decreased at LGM, but that in most areas the change in lake evaporation is overshadowed by changes in precipitation. Based on the model experiments, higher LGM lake levels only existed in the dryland regions of Pakistan, Afghanistan and north of monsoonal East Asia (∼45°N, ∼90–120°E), which differs from previous studies that suggested that higher lake levels prevailed during the LGM in western China and arid Central Asia. A detailed atmospheric water budget analysis performed with output from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) indicates that a combination of atmospheric dynamics (i.e., convergence) and thermodynamics (i.e., the Clausius–Clayperon relationship) were responsible for decreases in LGM precipitation in Siberia and monsoonal Asia. Our results support the idea that monsoonal Asia will become wetter in the future due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, though more than atmospheric thermodynamics may be at play. The situation is more complex for arid Central Asia, though current trends towards wetter conditions there might be consistent with the pattern we observe and model for LGM.

In the regions surrounding the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, changes in erosion rates have been linked to the tectonics, climate and topography over different time scales. To understand the mechanisms governing the changes of erosion rates, it is important to study erosion rates by different methods and for different time scales. In inland drainage basins, deposition rates of terminal lake sediments can indicate basin-wide erosion rates at the millennial-scale. This paper presents three lake records of the Last Deglaciation and Holocene (Huahai Lake, Zhuye Lake and Yanchi Lake) from the Hexi Corridor, north of the Qilian Mountains, in arid China. Organic matter, terrestrial pollen concentrates, seeds, grasses and plant debris are used for conventional and AMS 14 C dating. On the basis of 66 radiocarbon dates, lithology and grain-size, we infer relatively high basin-wide erosion rates during the Last Deglaciation and early Holocene in the three drainage basins, when the three lake sediments were seriously affected by reworking. The deposition rates were an order of magnitude or greater in these lakes during the Last Deglaciation and early Holocene than during the mid-to-late Holocene. During the transition period of the last glacial–interglacial cycle, significant climatic changes occurred in East and Central Asia, corresponding to the strengthening of the Asian summer monsoon and to increasing effective moisture in arid Central Asia, which can have strong impacts on basin-wide erosion rates north of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. Moreover, melting glaciers in the Qilian Mountains probably also contributed to the high basin-wide erosion rates. At the same time, tectonic activity was not recognizable in the study area during that period. In the arid and semiarid regions surrounding the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, dramatic changes in erosion rates appear during the transition periods of the glacial–interglacial cycles, which illustrate the climatic controls on erosion rates at this time scale.

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation varied on millennial timescales during the last glacial period. Sediment records and climate modelling suggest that the winter monsoon was also affected by millenial scale variability, and that the abrupt changes were driven by changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Reducing uncertainty in global temperature reconstructions of the past millennium remains the key issue in applying this record to society’s pressing climate change problem. Reconstructions are collaborative, built on the research of hundreds of scientists who apply their diverse scientific expertise and field and laboratory skill to create the individual proxy reconstructions that underlie the multi-proxy, global average temperature time series. Web 2.0 features have enabled collaborative efforts that improve the characterization of uncertainty. Raw data shared via a repository (the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology) enable new reconstructions from the collection of user-generated data. Standards propagated by expert communities facilitate quality control and interoperability. Open access to data and computer code promote transparency and make the science accessible to a broader audience. Blogs, wikis, and listservs share background information and highlight contentious as well as unique aspects of paleo science. A novel approach now underway, titled the Paleoclimate Reconstruction Challenge, and based on the sharing of simulated data (pseudo-proxies) and reconstruction results, seeks to facilitate method development, further reducing uncertainty. Broadly-useful aspects of the Challenge may find application in other fields.

Lake-level records provide a rich resource of information about past changes in effective moisture, but water-balance fluctuations can be driven by a number of different climate variables and it is often difficult to pinpoint their exact cause. This understanding is essential, however, for reconciling divergent paleo-records or for making predictions about future lake-level variations. This research uses a series of models, the NCAR CCSM3, a lake energy-balance and a lake water-balance model, to examine the reasons for lake-level changes in monsoonal Asia and arid central Asia between the early (8.5 ka), middle (6.0 ka) and late (ca. 1800 AD) Holocene. Our results indicate that the components of the lake water balance responsible for lake-level changes varied by region and through time. High lake levels at 8.5 and 6.0 ka in the monsoon region were caused by the combined effects of low lake evaporation and high precipitation. The low lake evaporation resulted from low winter solar radiation and high summer cloud cover. Precipitation associated with the mid-latitude westerlies increased from the early to middle Holocene and maintained high lake levels throughout most of arid central Asia ca. 6 ka. The modeled evolution of lake level in arid central Asia from the mid to late Holocene was spatially heterogeneous, due to different sensitivities of the northern and southern parts of the region to seasonally-changing insolation, particularly regarding the duration of lake ice cover. The model results do not suggest that precipitation and lake evaporation changes compete with one another in forcing lake-level change, as has been hypothesized.

The ecotone between alpine steppe and meadow in the central Tibetan Plateau is sensitive to climate changes. Here we used the pollen records from three lakes in this region to reconstruct the evolution of local vegetation and climate since 8200 cal. yr BP. The history of temperature and precipitation was reconstructed quantitatively with multi-bioclimatic indexes and a transfer function from pollen records. Results show that the steppe/meadow dominated during the period of 8200–6500 cal. yr BP, especially 8200–7200 cal. yr BP, indicating the central Tibetan Plateau was controlled by strong monsoon. The steppe dominated during the periods of 6000–4900, 4400–3900, and 2800–2400 cal. yr BP. The steppe decreased gradually and the meadow expanded during the period of 4900–4400 cal. yr BP. Three century-scale drought events occurred during 5800–4900, 4400–3900 and 2800 cal. yr BP, respectively. The first time when the regional climate shifted to the present level was at 6500 cal. yr BP in the central Plateau. Since 3000 cal. yr BP, the temperature and precipitation have decreased gradually to the present level. However, the cold climate between 700–300 cal. yr BP likely corresponds to the Little Ice Age.

This paper contributes to an understanding of the relationship between pollen assemblages and grain-size in north-west China. Based on the relationship, we have reconstructed the environmental and vegetation history from sediments from Zhuye Lake, located in the marginal area of the Asian monsoon. During the Late Glacial (before ~ 13 cal ka BP), the high content of sand is correlated with low pollen concentrations, which implies an arid environment and low vegetation cover in the drainage. The relatively high percentages of Pinus and Quercus pollen, derived from nearby high elevations, may indicate particularly low vegetation cover in the lower part of the watershed. Between 13 and 7.7 cal ka BP, increasing silt content is correlated with high percentages of Picea pollen. Fluvial flow and effective humidity at high elevations, as well as lake-level, all increase. Following this, an abrupt environmental change which is likely caused by some change in lake geomorphology persists for about 300 years. The Holocene Optimum is between 7.4 and 4.7 cal ka BP in this region. Pollen concentrations reach their highest values in the section. The abundant herb pollen reflects the high vegetation cover in the lower part of the watershed. The silt and the fine components in the sediments are high and stable indicating optimal moisture conditions. Between 4.7–1.5 cal ka BP the lake-level fell and silty peat was formed at the site. The pollen concentration decreased in contrast to the high pollen concentration in the Holocene Optimum. In the last 1500 years the lake-level fell while terrestrial sediments were deposited at the site. In this phase Chenopodiaceae, Nitraria and Ephedra reach their highest values in the section reflecting an arid environment. In Zhuye Lake and the surrounding area environmental changes are mainly controlled the combined effects of the East Asian monsoon and the Westerlies since the Late Glacial. In the last ~ 1.5 cal ka BP the intensive arid trend may be correlated with changes in the Westerlies.

Responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to freshwater forcing (hosing) in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean under present-day and the last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions are investigated using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model versions 2 and 3. Three sets of simulations are analyzed, with each set including a control run and a freshwater hosing run. The first two sets are under present-day conditions with an open and closed Bering Strait. The third one is under LGM conditions, which has a closed Bering Strait. Results show that the THC nearly collapses in all three hosing runs when the freshwater forcing is turned on. The full recovery of the THC, however, is at least a century earlier in the open Bering Strait run than the closed Bering Strait and LGM runs. This is because the excessive freshwater is diverged almost equally toward north and south from the subpolar North Atlantic when the Bering Strait is open. A significant portion of the freshwater flowing northward into the Arctic exits into the North Pacific via a reversed Bering Strait Throughflow, which accelerates the THC recovery. When the Bering Strait is closed, this Arctic to Pacific transport is absent and freshwater can only be removed through the southern end of the North Atlantic. Together with the surface freshwater excess due to precipitation, evaporation, river runoff, and melting ice in the closed Bering Strait experiments after the hosing, the removal of the excessive freshwater takes longer, and this slows the recovery of the THC. Although the background conditions are quite different between the present-day closed Bering Strait run and the LGM run, the THC responds to the freshwater forcing added in the North Atlantic in a very similar manner.

We present a record of monsoon variations for the early and middle Holocene that is inferred from the geochemistry of sediment cores from Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. The resolution of this record is better than 50 yr and the age model is derived from radiocarbon ages of terrestrial charcoal, which eliminates errors associated with the lake hard-water effect. We made down-core geochemical measurements of % carbonate, % organic carbon, C/N and δ13C of bulk organic matter, δ13C and δ18O of carbonate, and % dolomite. Proxy calibration and modern water-balance reconstruction show that these are proxies for lake depth and the amount of monsoon precipitation. We find that lake level and monsoon precipitation have been decreasing at Ahung Co since the early Holocene (∼7500 cal yr B.P.). Superimposed on this trend are rapid declines in monsoon rainfall at 7000–7500 and 4700 cal yr B.P. and seven century-scale wet–dry oscillations. The cores do not contain sediment from the last ∼4000 yr. Surface sediments from the lake accumulated during the 20th century, however. From this, we argue that lake levels have risen again recently following a late Holocene dry period.

Past water-balance changes in Tibetan lakes are generally attributed to changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. However, the water balance of a lake reflects many different water fluxes, which are controlled by many climatic and hydrologic processes. In this research, weather data and evaporation models are used to determine the climatic cause of a recent water-balance change in Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. Between 1995 and 2001, lake level rose at least 20 cm and the lake began to overflow. Results indicate that an increase in summer monsoon precipitation over the lake and drainage basin is responsible for the rise in lake level. Stronger monsoon conditions between 1995 and 2001 also led to decreased lake evaporation and basin evapotranspiration due to increased clouds and humidity. This contributed to the rise in lake level, but to a much smaller extent than the increase in monsoon precipitation. Lake evaporation during the spring and fall was also reduced between 1995 and 2001 due to longer lasting ice cover. Variations in ice cover play a small role in the overall water balance of Ahung Co, however, because the lake area is small compared to the drainage basin area. If these results hold true for the past, water-balance fluctuations inferred from the geochemistry of sediments from Ahung Co provide a record of variations in monsoon precipitation during the Holocene.

We have compiled 36 previously published palaeoclimate records to determine the timing and spatial pattern of century-scale abrupt changes in Asian monsoon precipitation since the last deglaciation. We identify abrupt events from (1) the interpretations of the authors of these records and (2) the more objective moving t-test calculation. Our results indicate that abrupt climatic changes occurred at ~11.5 cal. ka, 4.5–5.0 cal. ka and ad 1300. At the start of the Holocene (~11.5 cal. ka), Asian monsoon precipitation increased dramatically. This climatic change is synchronous with an abrupt warming in the North Atlantic. During the middle Holocene, there was a time of preferred and widespread weakening in monsoon strength (~4.5–5.0 cal. ka). This result contradicts previous notions of either a gradual trend towards drier conditions or a series of abrupt events that occurred in an unorganized fashion across space and time. The middle-Holocene abrupt event could have been synchronous with an abrupt cooling event in the North Atlantic, as well as a warming and intensification of internannual variability in the tropical Pacific. In contrast to previous periods, precipitation changes at ad 1300 have a heterogeneous spatial pattern. We find no conclusive evidence for a change in the Asian monsoon at ~8.2 cal. ka, as suggested by several previous studies. More high-resolution data may be needed to observe this short-lived event. Overall, our results attest to the potential for rapid and major shifts in Asian monsoon precipitation that may be triggered by variations in other components of the climatic system.

A new temperature record from East Africa demonstrates that the tropical lapse rate steepened during the last ice age., The gradient of air temperature with elevation (the temperature lapse rate) in the tropics is predicted to become less steep during the coming century as surface temperature rises, enhancing the threat of warming in high-mountain environments. However, the sensitivity of the lapse rate to climate change is uncertain because of poor constraints on high-elevation temperature during past climate states. We present a 25,000-year temperature reconstruction from Mount Kenya, East Africa, which demonstrates that cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum was amplified with elevation and hence that the lapse rate was significantly steeper than today. Comparison of our data with paleoclimate simulations indicates that state-of-the-art models underestimate this lapse-rate change. Consequently, future high-elevation tropical warming may be even greater than predicted.

The ability to define terrestrial paleotemperatures is a key issue for understanding past climate states and the processes that produced them. Paleotemperatures are defined, ideally, by proxy data interpretations, and supported by theoretical modeling results that provide physical explanations for the temperatures. Such explanations are especially critical for paleoclimates substantially warmer than present, for which we have no modern or recent examples. Model results and geologic data describing continental mean annual temperatures for the warm Early Eocene Earth as well as other time periods are generally in agreement. However, there are persistent discrepancies between climate model results and proxy data interpretations for temperature seasonality estimates. In this paper we test the idea that orbital forcing and resulting distributions of solar radiation played a role in determining continental interior temperatures during the Eocene. Specification of extreme values of orbital parameters (within the range of calculated Pleistocene values) produces a wide range of continental temperatures. These include cooler Northern Hemisphere continental summer temperatures and milder winter temperatures by up to 30%, and an annual temperature range reduced by 75%, relative to temperatures produced at the same location with modern orbital configuration. Temperature responses to the specified orbital forcing are most evident at middle and high latitudes. The results produced with one specification of extreme orbital configurations are more similar to proxy data interpretations than any previous results of these temperature parameters. We suggest that orbital variation and resulting insolation responses must be included in paleoclimate modeling studies that aim to explain proxy data and paleoclimate conditions for specific times in Earth's history.

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10–25% in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of ~150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to the carbon cycle resulted in a net release of the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 to the atmosphere; and changes in atmosphere and ocean circulation affected the global distribution and fluxes of water and heat. Here we summarize a major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize these changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate. Our synthesis indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation, with a strong association between the first mode and variations in greenhouse gases, and between the second mode and variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

[1] Paleo proxy data and previous modeling studies both indicate that the massive discharge of icebergs into the North Atlantic may have led to a (nearly) collapsed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), resulting in a seesaw-like climate change between the North Pacific and North Atlantic, with a warming in the former and a cooling in the latter. Here by using a fully coupled climate model, we show that this Pacific-Atlantic seesaw associated with changes of the AMOC can only occur when the Bering Strait is closed. As this strait is closed, the oceanic communication between the North Pacific and Atlantic is cut off. When AMOC collapses, the North Atlantic becomes cooler, but the North Pacific becomes warmer due to the buildup of the Pacific meridional overturning circulation which transports more warm and salty subtropical water into the North Pacific, leading to seesaw-like climate changes in the two ocean basins.

A well-dated pollen record from a large lake located on the meadow-steppe ecotone provides a history of ecotone shift in response to monsoonal climate changes over the last 6000 years in the central Tibetan Plateau. The pollen record indicates that the ecotone shifted eastward during 6000-4900, 4400-3900, and 2800-1600 cal. yr BP when steppes occupied this region, whereas it shifted westward during the other intervals when the steppes were replaced by meadows. The quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate derived from the pollen record shows that monsoon precipitation fluctuated around the present level over the last 6000 years in the central Tibetan Plateau. Three major drought episodes of 5600-4900, 4400-3900, and 2800-2400 cal. yr BP are detected by pollen signals and lake sediments. Comparison of our record with other climatic proxy data from the Tibetan Plateau and other monsoonal regions shows that these episodes are three major centennial-scale monsoon weakening events.

[1] Documenting the spatial extent of the 8.2 ka event is essential for understanding the possible response of the climate system to a freshwater perturbation in the North Atlantic. In this research, we analyzed paleoclimate proxy records from 52 sites using a statistical test to detect anomalies associated with the 8.2 ka event. Our results show that this event occurred in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and the tropics. Evidence from the tropics is more spotty, but detection rates are similar for the tropics and extratropics, suggesting that tropical evidence for the event will become stronger as more records are generated. There is also a particular need for new paleoclimate proxy records from Southern Hemisphere sites and/or with quantitative estimates of climate anomalies.

The South Asian Monsoon system is one of the most important and influential of the Earth’s major climate systems. The people of the most heavily populated Asian countries have adapted many aspects of their society to the subtleties of the monsoon rains, and are thus highly susceptible to small changes in the timing and intensity of monsoon precipitation. A monsoon failure can have disastrous effects, and flooding related to extreme monsoon rains has proven to be one of the most deadly of natural catastrophes (e.g. in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal). These vulnerabilities are likely to increase in the future with continued population growth, intensified land-use and sea-level rise. Although there is a growing effort to improve seasonal to interannual monsoon prediction skills via new research, the largest threats to human health and livelihood could come from unanticipated decade- and longer-scale extremes in monsoon. A major goal of this paper is to summarize the state-of-the-art regarding century to millennium-scales of monsoon variability, and to identify the paleoenvironmental research that is most urgently needed in the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau if society is to be served effectively in the 21st century.

About 8,200 years ago, the overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean slowed and the Northern Hemisphere cooled. A speleothem record from China reveals a period of drying that occurred almost simultaneously with the cooling recorded by the Greenland ice cores.

Evaporites are probably the most significant of climatically sensitive sediments, because they form in only regions where the rate of evaporation greatly exceeds the rate of rainfall plus runoff. Evaporites, coals, carbonates, tillites, and thick clastic deposits are among some of the climate-sensitive sediments that have been used as qualitative and indirect evidence for paleoclimatic conditions.

Low oxygen isotope values (∼−16‰, relative to Peedee belemnite standard) obtained from microbial carbonates of the Green River Formation have been interpreted as evidence for snowmelt and high elevations surrounding this early Eocene lake basin. However, low values from microbial precipitates could also represent a diagenetic overprint. We investigate these alternate hypotheses by measuring the oxygen isotope composition of altered and unaltered freshwater bivalves from the basin. We analyzed subannual samples from 3 individuals and bulk samples from 54 individuals. Subannual samples exhibit clear seasonal fluctuations in oxygen isotope values. These fluctuations are large enough to require seasonal shifts in temperature and/or the oxygen isotope value of the lake water. However, the lowest value of any unaltered sample (either bulk or high resolution) corresponds to lake-water δ 18 O of ∼−12‰ (relative to standard mean ocean water) and is not low enough to require the addition of snowmelt to the lake. A few bulk samples exhibit very low oxygen isotope values, which would seem to suggest snowmelt. However, these samples also show clear evidence of calcite in X-ray diffraction patterns, demonstrating the presence of diagenetic precipitates. Given that (1) diagenetic alteration is a plausible explanation of very low δ 18 O values, (2) alteration has not been examined in microbial carbonates, and (3) unaltered aragonitic bivalves provide no independent evidence for low δ 18 O values for lake waters, we conclude that robust isotopic evidence for high elevations surrounding the Green River Basin during the Eocene is currently lacking.

Paleoclimate records of effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation, or P–E) show a dry (low effective moisture) period in mid-latitude arid/semi-arid central Asia during the early Holocene (11,000–8,000 years ago) relative to the middle and late Holocene, in contrast to evidence for greater-than-present precipitation at the same time in the south and east Asian monsoonal areas. To investigate the spatial differences in climate response over mid-latitude central Asia and monsoonal Asia we conducted a series of simulations with the Community Climate System Model version 3 coupled climate model for the early, middle and late Holocene. The simulations test the climatic impact of all important forcings for the early Holocene, including changes in orbital parameters, the presence of the remnant Laurentide ice sheet and deglacial freshening of the North Atlantic. Model results clearly show the early Holocene patterns indicated by proxy records, including both the decreased effective moisture in arid central Asia, which occurs in the model primarily during the winter months, and the increase in summer monsoon precipitation in south and east Asia. The model results suggest that dry conditions in the early Holocene in central Asia are closely related to decreased water vapor advection due to reduced westerly wind speed and less evaporation upstream from the Mediterranean, Black, and Caspian Seas in boreal winter. As an extra forcing to the early Holocene climate system, the Laurentide ice sheet and meltwater fluxes have a substantial cooling effect over high latitudes, especially just over and downstream of the ice sheets, but contribute only to a small degree to the early Holocene aridity in central Asia. Instead, most of the effective moisture signal can be explained by orbital forcing decreasing the early Holocene latitudinal temperature gradient and wintertime surface temperature. We find little evidence for regional subsidence related to a stronger summer Asian monsoon in forcing early Holocene aridity in central Asia, as has been previously hypothesized.