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148 results on '"Carrero, J.J."'

1. The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts

Author: Grams, M.E., Brunskill, N.J., Ballew, Shoshana H., Sang, Y., Coresh, J., Matsushita, K., Surapaneni, A., Bell, S., Carrero, J.J., Chodick, G., Evans, M., Heerspink, H.J., Inker, L.A., Iseki, K., Kalra, P.A., Kirchner, H.L., Lee, B.J., Levin, A., Major, R.W., Medcalf, J., Nadkarni, G.N., Naimark, D.M.J., Ricardo, A.C., Sawhney, S., Sood, M.M., Staplin, N., Stempniewicz, N., Stengel, B., Sumida, K., Traynor, J.P., Brand, J. van den, Wen, C.P., Woodward, M., Yang, J.W., Wang, A.Y., Tangri, N., Grams, M.E., Brunskill, N.J., Ballew, Shoshana H., Sang, Y., Coresh, J., Matsushita, K., Surapaneni, A., Bell, S., Carrero, J.J., Chodick, G., Evans, M., Heerspink, H.J., Inker, L.A., Iseki, K., Kalra, P.A., Kirchner, H.L., Lee, B.J., Levin, A., Major, R.W., Medcalf, J., Nadkarni, G.N., Naimark, D.M.J., Ricardo, A.C., Sawhney, S., Sood, M.M., Staplin, N., Stempniewicz, N., Stengel, B., Sumida, K., Traynor, J.P., Brand, J. van den, Wen, C.P., Woodward, M., Yang, J.W., Wang, A.Y., and Tangri, N.
Abstract: Item does not contain fulltext, SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk
Published: 2023

2. Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study

Author: Mark, P.B., Carrero, J.J., Matsushita, K., Sang, Y., Ballew, S.H., Grams, M.E., Coresh, J., Surapaneni, A., Brunskill, N.J., Chalmers, J., Chan, L., Chang, A.R., Chinnadurai, R., Chodick, G., Cirillo, M., Zeeuw, D. de, Evans, M., Garg, A.X., Gutierrez, O.M., Heerspink, H.J.L., Heine, G.H., Herrington, W.G., Ishigami, J., Kronenberg, F., Lee, J.Y., Levin, A., Major, R.W., Marks, A., Nadkarni, G.N., Naimark, D.M.J., Nowak, C., Rahman, M., Sabanayagam, C., Sarnak, M., Sawhney, S., Schneider, M.P., Shalev, V., Shin, J.I., Siddiqui, M.K., Stempniewicz, N., Sumida, K., Valdivielso, J.M., Brand, J. van den, Yee-Moon Wang, A, Wheeler, D.C., Zhang, L., Visseren, F.L.J., Stengel, B., Mark, P.B., Carrero, J.J., Matsushita, K., Sang, Y., Ballew, S.H., Grams, M.E., Coresh, J., Surapaneni, A., Brunskill, N.J., Chalmers, J., Chan, L., Chang, A.R., Chinnadurai, R., Chodick, G., Cirillo, M., Zeeuw, D. de, Evans, M., Garg, A.X., Gutierrez, O.M., Heerspink, H.J.L., Heine, G.H., Herrington, W.G., Ishigami, J., Kronenberg, F., Lee, J.Y., Levin, A., Major, R.W., Marks, A., Nadkarni, G.N., Naimark, D.M.J., Nowak, C., Rahman, M., Sabanayagam, C., Sarnak, M., Sawhney, S., Schneider, M.P., Shalev, V., Shin, J.I., Siddiqui, M.K., Stempniewicz, N., Sumida, K., Valdivielso, J.M., Brand, J. van den, Yee-Moon Wang, A, Wheeler, D.C., Zhang, L., Visseren, F.L.J., and Stengel, B.
Abstract: Item does not contain fulltext, AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.
Published: 2023

3. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Author: Grams, M.E., Coresh, J., Matsushita, K., Ballew, S.H., Sang, Y., Surapaneni, A., Pinho, N. Alencar de, Anderson, A., Appel, L.J., Ärnlöv, J., Azizi, F., Bansal, N., Bell, S., Bilo, H.J.G., Brunskill, N.J., Carrero, J.J., Chadban, S., Chalmers, J., Chen, J., Ciemins, E., Cirillo, M., Ebert, N., Evans, M., Ferreiro, Alejandro, Fu, E.L., Fukagawa, M., Green, J.A., Gutierrez, O.M., Herrington, W.G., Hwang, S.J., Inker, L.A., Iseki, K., Jafar, T., Jassal, S.K., Jha, V., Kadota, A., Katz, R., Köttgen, A., Konta, T., Kronenberg, F., Lee, B.J., Lees, J., Levin, A., Looker, H.C., Major, R., Cohen, C. Melzer, Mieno, M., Miyazaki, M., Moranne, O., Muraki, I., Naimark, D., Nitsch, D., Oh, W., Pena, M., Purnell, T.S., Sabanayagam, C., Satoh, M., Sawhney, S., Schaeffner, E., Schöttker, B., Shen, J.I., Shlipak, M.G., Sinha, S., Stengel, B., Sumida, K., Tonelli, M., Valdivielso, J.M., Zuilen, A.D. van, Visseren, F.L.J., Wang, A.Y., Wen, C.P., Wheeler, D.C., Yatsuya, H., Yamagata, K., Yang, J.W., Young, A., Zhang, Haitao, Zhang, L., Wetzels, J.F.M., Levey, A.S., Gansevoort, R.T., Grams, M.E., Coresh, J., Matsushita, K., Ballew, S.H., Sang, Y., Surapaneni, A., Pinho, N. Alencar de, Anderson, A., Appel, L.J., Ärnlöv, J., Azizi, F., Bansal, N., Bell, S., Bilo, H.J.G., Brunskill, N.J., Carrero, J.J., Chadban, S., Chalmers, J., Chen, J., Ciemins, E., Cirillo, M., Ebert, N., Evans, M., Ferreiro, Alejandro, Fu, E.L., Fukagawa, M., Green, J.A., Gutierrez, O.M., Herrington, W.G., Hwang, S.J., Inker, L.A., Iseki, K., Jafar, T., Jassal, S.K., Jha, V., Kadota, A., Katz, R., Köttgen, A., Konta, T., Kronenberg, F., Lee, B.J., Lees, J., Levin, A., Looker, H.C., Major, R., Cohen, C. Melzer, Mieno, M., Miyazaki, M., Moranne, O., Muraki, I., Naimark, D., Nitsch, D., Oh, W., Pena, M., Purnell, T.S., Sabanayagam, C., Satoh, M., Sawhney, S., Schaeffner, E., Schöttker, B., Shen, J.I., Shlipak, M.G., Sinha, S., Stengel, B., Sumida, K., Tonelli, M., Valdivielso, J.M., Zuilen, A.D. van, Visseren, F.L.J., Wang, A.Y., Wen, C.P., Wheeler, D.C., Yatsuya, H., Yamagata, K., Yang, J.W., Young, A., Zhang, Haitao, Zhang, L., Wetzels, J.F.M., Levey, A.S., and Gansevoort, R.T.
Abstract: Item does not contain fulltext, IMPORTANCE: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. EXPOSURES: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associ
Published: 2023

4. Relationship between renal function and renal volume in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: Cross-sectional study

Author: Torres-Sánchez, M.J., Ávila-Barranco, E., Esteban de la Rosa, R.J., Fernández-Castillo, R., Esteban, M.A., Carrero, J.J., García-Valverde, M., and Bravo-Soto, J.A.
Published: 2016
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5. Relación entre función y volumen renal en la poliquistosis renal autosómica dominante: estudio transversal

Author: Torres-Sánchez, M.J., Ávila-Barranco, E., Esteban de la Rosa, R.J., Fernández-Castillo, R., Esteban, M.A., Carrero, J.J., García-Valverde, M., and Bravo-Soto, J.A.
Published: 2016
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6. Use of guideline-recommended medical therapy in patients with heart failure and chronic kidney disease: from physician's prescriptions to patient's dispensations, medication adherence and persistence

Author: Janse, R.J., Fu, E.L., Dahlstrom, U., Benson, L., Lindholm, B., Diepen, M. van, Dekker, F.W., Lund, L.H., Carrero, J.J., and Savarese, G.
Subjects: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system inhibitors, Beta-blockers, Kardiologi, Chronic kidney disease, Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems, Heart failure, Angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Abstract: Aim Half of heart failure (HF) patients have chronic kidney disease (CKD) complicating their pharmacological management. We evaluated physicians and patients patterns of use of evidence-based medical therapies in HF across CKD stages. Methods and results We studied HF patients with reduced (HFrEF) and mildly reduced (HFmrEF) ejection fraction enrolled in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry in 2009-2018. We investigated the likelihood of physicians to prescribe guideline-recommended therapies to patients with CKD, and of patients to fill the prescriptions within 90 days of incident HF (initiating therapy), to adhere (proportion of days covered >= 80%) and persist (continued use) on these treatments during the first year of therapy. We identified 31 668 patients with HFrEF (median age 74 years, 46% CKD). The proportions receiving a prescription for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ACEi/ARB/ARNi) were 96%, 92%, 86%, and 68%, for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >= 60, 45-59, 30-44, and Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council [2019-01059]; Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation; Westman Foundation; Minerva Scholarship Fund; Leiden University Fund (LUF) International Study Fund (LISF); Rubicon Grant of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)
Published: 2022

7. Removing race from the CKD-EPI equation and its impact on prognosis in a predominantly White European population

Author: Fu, E.L., Coresh, J., Grams, M.E., Clase, C.M., Elinder, C.G., Paik, J., Ramspek, C., Inker, L.A., Levey, A.S., Dekker, F.W., and Carrero, J.J.
Subjects: Transplantation, glomerular filtration rate, Nephrology, CKD-EPI, creatinine, epidemiology, kidney diseases
Abstract: Background While American nephrology societies recommend using the 2021 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equation without a Black race coefficient, it is unknown how this would impact disease distribution, prognosis and kidney failure risk prediction in predominantly White non-US populations. Methods We studied 1.6 million Stockholm adults with serum/plasma creatinine measurements between 2007 and 2019. We calculated changes in eGFR and reclassification across KDIGO GFR categories when changing from the 2009 to 2021 CKD-EPI equation; estimated associations between eGFR and the clinical outcomes kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT), (cardiovascular) mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events using Cox regression; and investigated prognostic accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of both equations within the Kidney Failure Risk Equation. Results Compared with the 2009 equation, the 2021 equation yielded a higher eGFR by a median [interquartile range (IQR)] of 3.9 (2.9–4.8) mL/min/1.73 m2, which was larger at older age and for men. Consequently, 9.9% of the total population and 36.2% of the population with CKD G3a–G5 was reclassified to a higher eGFR category. Reclassified individuals exhibited a lower risk of KFRT, but higher risks of all-cause/cardiovascular death and major adverse cardiovascular events, compared with non-reclassified participants of similar eGFR. eGFR by both equations strongly predicted study outcomes, with equal discrimination and calibration for the Kidney Failure Risk Equation. Conclusions Implementing the 2021 CKD-EPI equation in predominantly White European populations would raise eGFR by a modest amount (larger at older age and in men) and shift a major proportion of CKD patients to a higher eGFR category. eGFR by both equations strongly predicted outcomes.
Published: 2022

8. Association of combined intensity and adherence to statin/ezetimibe therapy with major adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with coronary heart disease

Author: Mazhar, F., primary, Hjemdahl, P., additional, Clase, C.M., additional, Johnel, K., additional, Jernberg, T., additional, and Carrero, J.J., additional
Published: 2022
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9. Intensity of lipid-lowering therapy, adherence and LDL-cholesterol goal attainment in patients with coronary heart disease

Author: Mazhar, F., primary, Hjemdahl, P., additional, Clase, C.M., additional, Johnel, K., additional, Jernberg, T., additional, and Carrero, J.J., additional
Published: 2022
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10. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Abbafati, C., Machado, D.B., Cislaghi, B., Salman, O.M., Karanikolos, M., McKee, M., Abbas, K.M., Brady, O.J., Larson, H.J., Trias-Llimós, S., Cummins, S., Langan, S.M., Sartorius, B., Hafiz, A., Jenabi, E., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N., Borzouei, S., Azarian, G., Khazaei, S., Abbasi, M., Asghari, B., Masoumi, S., Komaki, H., Taherkhani, A., Adabi, M., Abbasifard, M., Bazmandegan, G., Kamiab, Z., Vakilian, A., Anjomshoa, M., Mokari, A., Sabour, S., Shahbaz, M., Saeedi, R., Ahmadieh, H., Yousefinezhadi, T., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Nikbakhsh, R., Safi, S., Asgari, S., Irvani, S.N., Jahanmehr, N., Ramezanzadeh, K., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Khayamzadeh, M., Abbastabar, H., Shirkoohi, R., Fazlzadeh, M., Janjani, H., Hosseini, M., Mansournia, M., Tohidinik, H., Bakhtiari, A., Fazaeli, A., Mousavi, S., Hasanzadeh, A., Nabavizadeh, B., Malekzadeh, R., Hashemian, M., Pourshams, A., Salimzadeh, H., Sepanlou, S.G., Afarideh, M., Esteghamati, A., Esteghamati, S., Ghajar, A., Heidari, B., Rezaei, N., Mohamadi, E., Rahimi-Movaghar, A., Rahim, F., Eskandarieh, S., Sahraian, M., Mohebi, F., Aminorroaya, A., Ebrahimi, H., Farzadfar, F., Mohajer, B., Pishgar, F., Saeedi Moghaddam, S., Shabani, M., Zarafshan, H., Abolhassani, H., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Heidari-Soureshjani, R., Abdollahi, M., Farahmand, M., Salamati, P., Mehrabi Nasab, E., Tajdini, M., Aghamir, S., Mirzaei, R., Dibaji Forooshani, Z., Khater, M.M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abualhasan, A., El-Jaafary, S.I., Hassan, A., Elsharkawy, A., Khater, A.M., Elhabashy, H.R., Salem, M.R.R., Salem, H., Sadeghi, M., Jafarinia, M., Amini-Rarani, M., Mohammadifard, N., Sarrafzadegan, N., Abdollahpour, I., Sarveazad, A., Tehrani-Banihashemi, A., Yoosefi Lebni, J., Manafi, N., Pazoki Toroudi, H., Dorostkar, F., Alipour, V., Sheikhtaheri, A., Arabloo, J., Azari, S., Ghashghaee, A., Rezapour, A., Naserbakht, M., Kabir, A., Mehri, F., Yousefifard, M., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Babaee, E., Eshrati, B., Goharinezhad, S., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Abedi, P., Rashedi, V., Kumar, V., Elgendy, I.Y., Basu, S., Park, J., Pereira, A., Norheim, O.F., Eagan, A.W., Cahill, L.E., Sheikh, A., Abushouk, A.I., Kraemer, M.U.G., Thakur, B., Bärnighausen, T.W., Shrime, M.G., Abedi, A., Doshi, C.P., Abegaz, K.H., Geberemariyam, B.S., Aynalem, Y.A., Shiferaw, W.S., Abosetugn, A.E., Aboyans, V., Abrams, E.M., Gitimoghaddam, M., Kissoon, N., Stubbs, J.L., Brauer, M., Iyamu, I.O., Kopec, J.A., Pourmalek, F., Ribeiro, A.P., Malta, D.C., Gomez, R.S., Abreu, L.G., Abrigo, M.R.M., Almulhim, A.M., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Pottoo, F.H., Menezes, R.G., Alanzi, T.M., Alumran, A.K., Abu Haimed, A.K., Madadin, M., Alanezi, F.M., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Saddik, B., Abu-Raddad, L.J., Samy, A.M., El Nahas, N., Shalash, A.S., Nabhan, A.F., Kamath, A.M., Kassebaum, N.J., Aravkin, A.Y., Kochhar, S., Sorensen, R.J.D., Afshin, A., Burkart, K., Cromwell, E.A., Dandona, L., Dharmaratne, S.D., Gakidou, E., Hay, S.I., Kyu, H.H., Lopez, A.D., Lozano, R., Misganaw, A.T., Mokdad, A.H., Naghavi, M., Pigott, D.M., Reiner Jr, R.C., Roth, G.A., Stanaway, J.D., Vollset, S., Vos, T., Wang, H., Lim, S.S., Murray, C.J.L., Kalani, R., Ikuta, K.S., Cho, D.Y., Kneib, C.J., Crowe, C.S., Massenburg, B.B., Morrison, S.D., Acebedo, A., Adelson, J.D., Agesa, K.M., Alam, T., Albertson, S.B., Anderson, J.A., Antony, C.M., Ashbaugh, C., Assmus, M., Azhar, G., Balassyano, S., Bannick, M.S., Barthelemy, C.M., Bender, R.G., Bennitt, F.B., Bertolacci, G.J., Biehl, M.H., Bisignano, C., Boon-Dooley, A.S., Briant, P.S., Bryazka, D., Bumgarner, B.R., Callender, C.S., Cao, J., Castle, C.D., Castro, E., Causey, K., Cercy, K.M., Chalek, J., Charlson, F.J., Cohen, A.J., Comfort, H., Compton, K., Croneberger, A.J., Cruz, J.A., Cunningham, M., Dandona, R., Dangel, W.J., Dean, F.E., DeCleene, N.K., Deen, A., Degenhardt, L., Dingels, Z.V., Dippenaar, I.N., Dirac, M.A., Dolgert, A.J., Emmons-Bell, S., Estep, K., Farag, T., Feigin, V.L., Feldman, R., Ferrara, G., Ferrari, A.J., Fitzgerald, R., Force, L.M., Fox, J.T., Frank, T.D., Fu, W., Fukutaki, K., Fuller, J.E., Fullman, N., Galles, N.C., Gardner, W.M., Gershberg Hayoon, A., Goren, E., Gorman, T.M., Gottlich, H.C., Guo, G., Haddock, B., Hagins, H., Haile, L.M., Hamilton, E.B., Han, C., Han, H., Harvey, J.D., Henny, K., Henrikson, H.J., Henry, N.J., Herbert, M.E., Hsiao, T., Huynh, C.K., Iannucci, V.C., Ippolito, H., Irvine, C.M.S., Jafari, H., Jahagirdar, D., James, S.L., Johnson, C.O., Johnson, S.C., Keller, C., Kemmer, L., Kendrick, P.J., Knight, M., Kocarnik, J.M., Krohn, K.J., Larson, S.L., Lau, K.M., Ledesma, J.R., Leever, A.T., LeGrand, K.E., Lescinsky, H., Lin, C., Liu, H., Liu, Z., Lo, J., Lu, A., Ma, J., Maddison, E.R., Manguerra, H., Marks, A., Martopullo, I., Mastrogiacomo, C.I., May, E.A., Mooney, M.D., Mosser, J.F., Mullany, E.C., Mumford, J., Munro, S.B., Nandakumar, V., Nguyen, J., Nguyen, M., Nichols, E., Nixon, M.R., Odell, C.M., Ong, K.L., Orji, A.U., Ostroff, S.M., Pasovic, M., Paulson, K.R., Pease, S.A., Pennini, A., Pierce, M., Pilz, T.M., Pletcher, M., Rao, P.C., Razo, C., Redford, S.B., Reinig, N., Reitsma, M.B., Rhinehart, P., Robalik, T., Roberts, S., Roberts, N.L.S., Rolfe, S., Sbarra, A.N., Schaeffer, L.E., Shackelford, K.A., Shadid, J., Sharara, F., Shaw, D.H., Sheena, B.S., Simpson, K.E., Smith, A., Spencer, C.N., Spurlock, E.E., Stark, B.A., Steiner, C., Steuben, K.M., Sylte, D.O., Tang, M., Taylor, H.J., Terrason, S., Thomson, A.M., Torre, A.E., Travillian, R., Troeger, C.E., Vongpradith, A., Walters, M.K., Wang, J., Watson, A., Watson, S., Whisnant, J.L., Whiteford, H.A., Wiens, K.E., Wilner, L.B., Wilson, S., Wool, E.E., Wozniak, S.S., Wu, J., Wulf Hanson, S., Wunrow, H., Xu, R., Yadgir, S., Yearwood, J.A., York, H.W., Yuan, C., Zhao, J.T., Zheng, P., Zimsen, S.R.M., Zlavog, B.S., Chang, A.Y., Oren, E., Buchbinder, R., Chin, K.L., Guo, Y., Polkinghorne, K.R., Thrift, A.G., Lee, S.W.H., Ackerman, I.N., Cicuttini, F.M., Li, S., Zaman, S., Suleria, H., Zhang, J., Cowie, B.C., Wijeratne, 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Stephen, Ilic, Irena M, Ilic, Milena D, Imani-Nasab, Mohammad Hasan, Islam, Mdmohaimenul, Iso, Hiroyasu, Iwu, Chinwe Juliana, Jaafari, Jalil, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahagirdar, Deepa, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jalali, Amir, Jalilian, Farzad, James, Spencer L, Janjani, Hosna, Jenabi, Ensiyeh, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S, Jonas, Jost B, Joukar, Farahnaz, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kalani, Hamed, Kalankesh, Leila R, Kamiab, Zahra, Kanchan, Tanuj, Kapoor, Neeti, Karch, André, Karimi, Salah Eddin, Karimi, Seyed Asaad, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Kayode, Gbenga A, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Keller, Cathleen, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalid, Nauman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Maseer, Khang, Young-Ho, Khater, Amir M, Khater, Mona M, Khazaei, Salman, Khazaie, Habibolah, Khodayari, Mohammad Taghi, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kianipour, Neda, Kim, Cho-il, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kinfu, Yohanne, Kisa, Adnan, Kisa, Sezer, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimäki, Mika, Komaki, Hamidreza, Kopec, Jacek A, Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A, Krishan, Kewal, Krohn, Kris J, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kumar, Vivek, Kusuma, Dian, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, La Vecchia, Carlo, Lacey, Ben, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lansky, Sonia, Larson, Samantha Leigh, Larsson, Anders O, Lasrado, Savita, Lassi, Zohra S, Lazarus, Jeffrey V, Lee, Paul H, Lee, Shaun Wen Huey, Leever, Andrew T, Legrand, Kate E, Leonardi, Matilde, Li, Shanshan, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lim, Stephen S, Linn, Shai, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lopez, Alan D, Lopukhov, Platon D, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lu, Alton, Lunevicius, Raimunda, Madadin, Mohammed, Maddison, Emilie R, Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan, Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed, Mahasha, Phetole Walter, Mahdavi, Mokhtar Mahdavi, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mamun, Abdullah A, Manafi, Navid, Mansour-Ghanaei, Fariborz, Mansouri, Borhan, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Martini, Santi, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Masaka, Anthony, Mastrogiacomo, Claudia I, Mathur, Manu Raj, May, Erin A, Mcalinden, Colm, Mcgrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mehri, Fereshteh, Mehta, Kala M, Meitei, Wahengbam Bigyananda, Memiah, Peter T N, Mendoza, Walter, Menezes, Ritesh G, Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Mestrovic, Tomislav, Michalek, Irmina Maria, Mihretie, Kebadnew Mulatu, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Milne, George J, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M, Mirzaei, Hamed, Mirzaei, Maryam, Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi, Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Moazen, Babak, Moghadaszadeh, Masoud, Mohamadi, Efat, Mohammad, Dara K, Mohammad, Yousef, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser, Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah, Mohammadpourhodki, Reza, Mohammed, Hussen, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Mohseni Bandpei, Mohammad A, Mokari, Amin, Mokdad, Ali H, Momen, Natalie C, Monasta, Lorenzo, Mooney, Meghan D, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi, Masoud, Moradi-Joo, Mohammad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah, Moraga, Paula, Moreno Velásquez, Ilai, Morgado-da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Dougla, Mosser, Jonathan F, Mouodi, Simin, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mousavi Khaneghah, Amin, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Muthupandian, Saravanan, Nabavizadeh, Behnam, Naderi, Mehdi, Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naghshtabrizi, Behshad, Naik, Gurudatta, Najafi, Farid, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Ngunjiri, Josephine W, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Nigatu, Yeshambel T, Nikbakhsh, Rajan, Nikpoor, Amin Reza, Nixon, Molly R, Nnaji, Chukwudi A, Nomura, Shuhei, Noubiap, Jean Jacque, Nouraei Motlagh, Soraya, Nowak, Christoph, Oţoiu, Adrian, Odell, Christopher M, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladnabi, Morteza, Olagunju, Andrew T, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Omar Bali, Ahmed, Ong, Kanyin L, Onwujekwe, Obinna E, Ortiz, Alberto, Otstavnov, Nikita, Otstavnov, Stanislav S, Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa O, P A, Mahesh, Padubidri, Jagadish Rao, Pakshir, Keyvan, Palladino, Raffaele, Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Park, Jame, Pasupula, Deepak Kumar, Patel, Jenil R, Patel, Sangram Kishor, Patton, George C, Paulson, Katherine R, Pazoki Toroudi, Hamidreza, Pease, Spencer A, Peden, Amy E, Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino, Peprah, Emmanuel K, Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pigott, David M, Pilgrim, Thoma, Pilz, Tessa M, Piradov, Michael A, Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pokhrel, Khem Narayan, Postma, Maarten J, Pourjafar, Hadi, Pourmalek, Farshad, Pourshams, Akram, Poznańska, Anna, Prada, Sergio I, Prakash, Sanjay, Preotescu, Liliana, Quazi Syed, Zahiruddin, Rabiee, Mohammad, Rabiee, Navid, Radfar, Amir, Rafiei, Alireza, Raggi, Alberto, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali, Ram, Pradhum, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Rao, Sowmya J, Rasella, Davide, Rashedi, Vahid, Rastogi, Prateek, Rathi, Priya, Rawal, Lal, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renjith, Vishnu, Renzaho, Andre M N, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Nima, Rezai, Mohammad sadegh, Rezapour, Aziz, Rickard, Jennifer, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostamian, Morteza, Rubagotti, Enrico, Rwegerera, Godfrey M, Sabour, Siamak, Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Sadeghi, Masoumeh, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Yahya, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, S Mohammad, Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza, Salama, Joseph S, Salamati, Payman, Salem, Marwa R Rashad, Salimi, Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Salz, Inbal, Samad, Zainab, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Santric-Milicevic, Milena M, Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer, Sartorius, Benn, Sarveazad, Arash, Sathian, Brijesh, Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu, Sattin, Davide, Saylan, Mete, Schaeffer, Lauren E, Schiavolin, Silvia, Schwebel, David C, Schwendicke, Falk, Sekerija, Mario, Senbeta, Anbissa Muleta, Senthilkumaran, Subramanian, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serván-Mori, Edson, Shabani, Mahsima, Shahabi, Saeed, Shahbaz, Mohammad, Shaheen, Amira A, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shalash, Ali S, Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran, Shamsi, Mohammadbagher, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Shannawaz, Mohammed, Sharafi, Kiomar, Sharafi, Zeinab, Sharara, Fablina, Sharma, Rajesh, Shaw, David H, Sheikh, Aziz, Shin, Jae Il, Shiri, Rahman, Shrime, Mark G, Shuval, Kerem, Siabani, Soraya, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig, Silva, Diego Augusto Santo, Simonetti, Biagio, Simpson, Kyle E, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich, Soheili, Amin, Sokhan, Anton, Sorensen, Reed J D, Soriano, Joan B, Sorrie, Muluken Bekele, Soyiri, Ireneous N, Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stockfelt, Leo, Stokes, Mark A, Stubbs, Jacob L, Sudaryanto, Agu, Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tabb, Karen M, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Taherkhani, Amir, Tang, Muming, Taveira, Nuno, Taylor, Heather Jean, Teagle, Whitney L, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Teklehaimanot, Berhane Fseha, Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thomas, Nihal, Thrift, Amanda G, Titova, Mariya Vladimirovna, Tohidinik, Hamid Reza, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Topouzis, Foti, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto Roberto, Traini, Eugenio, Tran, Bach Xuan, Travillian, Ravensara, Trias-Llimós, Sergi, Truelsen, Thomas Clement, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran, Upadhyay, Era, Vacante, Marco, Vakilian, Alireza, Valdez, Pascual R, Valli, Alessandro, Vardavas, Constantine, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogale, Vasseghian, Yasser, Veisani, Yousef, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vidale, Simone, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Vujcic, Isidora S, Vukovic, Ana, Vukovic, Rade, Waheed, Yasir, Wallin, Mitchell Taylor, Walters, Magdalene K, Wang, Hongbo, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Watson, Stefanie, Wei, Jingkai, Weiss, Jordan, Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wiangkham, Taweewat, Wiens, Kirsten E, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wojtyniak, Bogdan, Wolfe, Charles D A, Wondmieneh, Adam Belay, Wool, Eve E, Wu, Ai-Min, Wu, Junjie, Xu, Gelin, Yamada, Tomohide, Yamagishi, Kazumasa, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaya, Sanni, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid, Yearwood, Jamal A, Yeheyis, Tomas Y, Yilgwan, Christopher Sabo, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yoosefi Lebni, Javad, York, Hunter W, Younis, Mustafa Z, Younker, Theodore Patrick, Yousefi, Zabihollah, Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh, Yousuf, Abdilahi Yousuf, Yusefzadeh, Hasan, Zahirian Moghadam, Telma, Zakzuk, Josefina, Zaman, Sojib Bin, Zamani, Mohammad, Zamanian, Maryam, Zandian, Hamed, Zhang, Zhi-Jiang, Zheng, Peng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ziapour, Arash, Murray, Christopher J L, Collaborators, GBD 2019 Demographics, GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborator, Violante FS, Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Department of Earth Systems Analysis, Biomechanical Engineering, TechMed Centre, Biomolecular Nanotechnology, Research Methodology, Measurement and Data Analysis, Materials Science and Technology of Polymers, Inorganic Materials Science, MESA+ Institute, Biomedical and Environmental Sensorsystems, Mesoscale Chemical Systems, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Nonlinear Solid Mechanics, Digital Society Institute, Pervasive Systems, Nanobiophysics, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, Multi Scale Mechanics, Engineering Fluid Dynamics, Physics of Complex Fluids, Developmental BioEngineering, Physics of Fluids, Elastomer Technology and Engineering, Medical Cell Biophysics, European Membrane Institute, Department of Earth Observation Science, Biomaterials Science and Technology, Sustainable Process Technology, Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management, Department of Natural Resources, XUV Optics, Databases (Former), Department of Water Resources, Psychology, Health & Technology, Membrane Science & Technology, Department of Public Health, Clinicum, HUS Neurocenter, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Male, very elderly, Demographic transition, HALE, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, preschool child, Global Burden of Disease, Carga Global de Enfermedades, 0302 clinical medicine, newborn, Risk Factors, Surveys and Questionnaires, and Risk Factors Study, 80 and over, 030212 general & internal medicine, Birth Rate, Child, Migration, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Injuries, Geography, Mortality rate, 1. No poverty, DEATH, Censuses, General Medicine, SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities, Middle Aged, Demographic analysis, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 3. Good health, demographic analysis, Estilo de Vida Saludable, risk factor, Child, Preschool, Demography/statistics & numerical data, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, Risk Factors, Fertility, Mortality, Migration, Population, epidemiology, Female, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, CHILD-MORTALITY, Live Birth, Global Health Metrics, TRANSITION, demographics, GBD, fertility, mortality, hale, Adult, Adolescent, Total fertility rate, Population, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, Birth rate, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, General & Internal Medicine, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Demografía, Humans, Global Burden of Disease Study, human, Mortality, education, Preschool, Aged, Demography, Spatial Analysis, questionnaire, Infant, Newborn, Klinisk medicin, HIV, Infant, Global Burden of Diseases, sex-specific fertility, Live Birth/epidemiology, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.00 [https], MODEL, Fertilidad, Fertility, Demographic change, Life expectancy, NA, global disease burden, Clinical Medicine, population research
Abstract: Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2020

11. Stopping versus continuing renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors after acute kidney injury and adverse clinical outcomes

Author: Janse, R.J., Fu, E.L., Clase, C.M., Tomlinson, L., Lindholm, B., Diepen, M. van, Dekker, F.W., and Carrero, J.J.
Subjects: angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, acute kidney injury, kidney disease, angiotensin receptor antagonists, mortality
Abstract: Background The risk-benefit ratio of continuing with renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi) after an episode of acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. While stopping RASi may prevent recurrent AKI or hyperkalaemia, it may deprive patients of the cardiovascular benefits of using RASi. Methods We analysed outcomes of long-term RASi users experiencing AKI (stage 2 or 3, or clinically coded) during hospitalization in Stockholm and Sweden during 2007-18. We compared stopping RASi within 3 months after discharge with continuing RASi. The primary study outcome was the composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. Recurrent AKI was our secondary outcome and we considered hyperkalaemia as a positive control outcome. Propensity score overlap weighted Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), balancing 75 confounders. Weighted absolute risk differences (ARDs) were also determined. Results We included 10 165 individuals, of whom 4429 stopped and 5736 continued RASi, with a median follow-up of 2.3 years. The median age was 78 years; 45% were women and median kidney function before the index episode of AKI was 55 mL/min/1.73 m(2). After weighting, those who stopped had an increased risk [HR, 95% confidence interval (CI)] of the composite of death, MI and stroke [1.13, 1.07-1.19; ARD 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-4.8] compared with those who continued, a similar risk of recurrent AKI (0.94, 0.84-1.05) and a decreased risk of hyperkalaemia (0.79, 0.71-0.88). Discussion Stopping RASi use among survivors of moderate-to-severe AKI was associated with a similar risk of recurrent AKI, but higher risk of the composite of death, MI and stroke.
Published: 2022

12. The possible role of nesfatin-1 on appetite regulation in hemodialysis patients

Author: Saldanha, J.F., Carrero, J.J., and Mafra, D.
Published: 2011
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13. POS-305 HOSPITALIZATIONS AND LENGTH OF STAY IN PATIENTS WITH CKD WITH AND WITHOUT HYPERKALEMIA: A REPORT FROM THE DISCOVER CKD RETROSPECTIVE COHORT

Author: James, G., primary, Carrero, J.J., additional, Khezrian, M., additional, Fishbane, S., additional, Wittbrodt, E., additional, Kanda, E., additional, Chen, H., additional, Kashihara, N., additional, Järbrink, K., additional, Lam, C.S.P., additional, Pollock, C., additional, Lainscak, M., additional, Stenvinkel, P., additional, Wheeler, D.C., additional, and Pecoits-Filho, R., additional
Published: 2022
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14. ESPEN Guidelines on Parenteral Nutrition: Adult Renal Failure

Author: Cano, N.J.M., Aparicio, M., Brunori, G., Carrero, J.J., Cianciaruso, B., Fiaccadori, E., Lindholm, B., Teplan, V., Fouque, D., and Guarnieri, G.
Published: 2009
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15. PUK4 General Practitioner Utilization and Costs of Chronic Kidney Disease According to the 2012 KDIGO CKD Classification: A Report from the DISCOVER CKD Retrospective Cohort

Author: Garcia Sanchez, J.J., primary, Arnold, M., additional, Carrero, J.J., additional, James, G., additional, Heerspink, H., additional, Abdul Sultan, A., additional, Lam, C., additional, Chen, T., additional, Nolan, S., additional, Pecoits-Filho, R., additional, and Pollock, C., additional
Published: 2021
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16. Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Paulson, K.R., Kamath, A.M., Alam, T., Bienhoff, K., Abady, G.G., Abbas, J., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abd-Elsalam, S.M., Abdoli, A., Abedi, A., Abolhassani, H., Abreu, L.G., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E., Abushouk, A.I., Adamu, A.L., Adebayo, O.M., Adegbosin, A.E., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O.O., Adeyinka, D.A., Adsuar, J.C., Afshari, K., Aghaali, M., Agudelo-Botero, M., Ahinkorah, B.O., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Ahmed, M.B., Aji, B., Akalu, Y., Akinyemi, O.O., Aklilu, A., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal, J.E., Al-Eyadhy, A., Ali, T., Alicandro, G., Alif, S.M., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Almasri, N.A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Alonso, J., Al-Raddadi, R.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alumran, A.K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Alvis-Zakzuk, N.J., Ameyaw, E.K., Amini, S., Amini-Rarani, M., Amit, A.M.L., Amugsi, D.A., Ancuceanu, R., Anderlini, D., Andrei, C.L., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonio, C.A.T., Antriyandarti, E., Anvari, D., Anwer, R., Aqeel, M., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aripov, T., Ärnlöv, J., Artanti, K.D., Arzani, A., Asaad, M., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Asadi-Pooya, A.A., Asghari Jafarabadi, M., Athari, S.S., Athari, S.M., Atnafu, D.D., Atreya, A., Atteraya, M.S., Ausloos, M., Awan, A.T., Ayala Quintanilla, B.P., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M.A., Aynalem, Y.A., Azari, S., Azarian, G., Azene, Z.N., Darshan, B.B., Babaee, E., Badiye, A.D., Baig, A.A., Banach, M., Banik, Pa.C., Barker-Collo, S.L., Barqawi, H.J., Bassat, Q., Basu, S., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Beghi, M., Bell, M.L., Bendak, S., Bennett, D.A., Bensenor, I.M., Berhe, K., Berman, A.E., Bezabih, Y.M., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhandari, D., Bhardwaj, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z.A., Bikbov, B., Biondi, A., Birihane, B.M., Biswas, R.K., Bohlouli, S., Bragazzi, N.L., Breusov, A.V., Brunoni, A.R., Burkart, K., Burugina Nagaraja, S., Busse, R., Butt, Z.A., Caetano dos Santos, F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Camargos, P., Cámera, L.A., Cárdenas, R., Carreras, G., Carrero, J.J., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J.M., Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A., Castelpietra, G., Cerin, E., Chang, J-C, Chanie, W.F., Charan, J., Chatterjee, S., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chaturvedi, S., Chen, S., Cho, D.Y., Choi, J-Y.J., Chu, D-T, Ciobanu, L.G., Cirillo, M., Conde, J., Costa, V.M., Couto, R.A.S., Dachew, B.A., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Dai, H., Dai, X., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daneshpajouhnejad, P., Darmstadt, G.L, Das, J.K., Dávila-Cervantes, C.A., Davis, A.C., Davletov, K., De la Hoz, F.P., De Leo, D., Deeba, F., Denova-Gutiérrez, E., Dervenis, N., Desalew, A., Deuba, K., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S.D., Dhingra, S., Dhungana, G.P., Dias da Silva, D., Diaz, D., Dorostkar, F., Doshmangir, L., Dubljanin, E., Duraes, A.R., Eagan, A.W., Edinur, H.A., Efendi, F., Eftekharzadeh, S., El Sayed, I., El Tantawi, M., Elbarazi, I., Elgendy, I.Y., El-Jaafary, S.I., Emami, A., Enany, S., Eyawo, O., Ezzikouri, S., Faris, P.S., Farzadfar, F., Fattahi, N., Fauk, N.K., Fazlzadeh, M., Feigin, V.L., Ferede, T.Y., Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Fisher, J.L., Foigt, N.A., Folayan, M.O., Foroutan, M., Franklin, R.C., Freitas, M., Friedman, S.D., Fukumoto, T., Gad, M.M., Gaidhane, A.M., Gaidhane, S., Gaihre, S., Gallus, S., Garcia-Basteiro, A.L., Garcia-Gordillo, M.A., Gardner, W.M., Gaspar Fonseca, M., Gebremedhin, K.B., Getacher, L., Ghashghaee, A., Gholamian, A., Gilani, S.A., Gill, T.K., Giussani, G., Gnedovskaya, E.V., Godinho, M.A., Goel, A., Golechha, M., Gona, P.N., Gopalani, S.V., Goudarzi, H., Grivna, M., Gugnani, H.C., Guido, D., Guimarães, R.A., Gupta, R.D., Gupta, R., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Haider, M.R., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hamidi, S., Hanif, A., Hankey, G.J., Hargono, A., Hasaballah, A.I., Hasan, M.M., Hasan, S.S., Hassan, A., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Havmoeller, R.J., Hayat, K., Heidari-Soureshjani, R., Henry, N.J., Herteliu, C., Hole, M.K., Holla, R., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Huang, J., Humayun, A., Hwang, B-F, Iavicoli, I., Ibitoye, S.E., Ikuta, K.S., Ilesanmi, O.S., Ilic, I.M., Ilic, M.D., Inamdar, S., Inbaraj, L.R., Iqbal, K., Iqbal, U., Islam, M.M., Islam, S.M.S., Iso, H., Iwagami, M., Iwu, C.C.D., Jaafari, J., Jacobsen, K.H., Jagnoor, J., Jain, V., Janodia, M.D., Javaheri, T., Javanmardi, F., Jayaram, S., Jayatilleke, A.U., Jenabi, E., Jha, R.P., Ji, J.S., John, O., Jonas, J.B., Joo, T., Joseph, N., Joukar, F., Jozwiak, J.J., Jürisson, M., Kabir, A., Kabir, Z., Kalankesh, L.R., Kamyari, N., Kanchan, T., Kapoor, N., Karami Matin, B., Karch, A., Karimi, S.E., Kassahun, G., Kayode, G.A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Kemmer, L., Khalid, N., Khalilov, R., Khammarnia, M., Khan, E.A., Khan, G., Khan, M., Khan, Md.N., Khang, Y-H, Khatab, K., Khater, A.M., Khater, M.M., Khayamzadeh, M., Khosravi, A., Kim, D., Kim, Y-E, Kim, Y.J., Kimokoti, R.W., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kissoon, N., Kopec, J.A., Kosen, S., Koul, P.A., Koulmane Laxminarayana, S.L., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Krishnamoorthy, V., Kuate Defo, B., Kucuk Bicer, B., Kulkarni, V., Kumar, G.A., Kumar, M., Kumar, N., Kurmi, O.P., Kusuma, D., La Vecchia, C., Lacey, B., Lalloo, R., Lami, F.H., Landires, I., Larsson, A.O., Lasrado, S., Lassi, Z.S., Lauriola, P., Lee, P.H., Lee, S.W.H., Lee, Y.H., Leigh, J., Leonardi, M., Lewycka, S., Li, B., Li, S., Liang, J., Lim, L-L, Limenih, M.A., Lin, R-T, Liu, X., Lodha, R., Lopez, A.D., Lozano, R., Lugo, A., Lunevicius, R., Mackay, M.T., Madhava Kunjathur, S., Magnani, F.G., Mahadeshwara Prasad, D.R., Maheri, M., Mahmoudi, M., Majeed, A., Maled, V., Maleki, A., Maleki, S., Malekzadeh, R., Malik, A.A., Malta, D.C., Mamun, A.A., Mansouri, B., Mansournia, M.A., Martinez, G., Martini, S., Martins-Melo, F.R., Masoumi, S.Z., Maulik, P.K., McAlinden, C., McGrath, J.J., Medina-Solís, C.E., Mehrabi Nasab, E., Mejia-Rodriguez, F., Memish, Z.A., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R.G., Mengesha, E.W., Mensah, G.A., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T.J., Mersha, A.M., Mestrovic, T., Miazgowski, B., Miazgowski, T., Michalek, I.M., Miller, T.R., Mini, G.K., Miri, M., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mirzaei, H., Mirzaei, M., Moazen, B., Moghadaszadeh, M., Mohajer, B., Mohamad, O., Mohammad, Y., Mohammadi, S.M., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A.H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Mondello, S., Moni, M.A., Moore, C.E., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradzadeh, R., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Morrison, S.D., Mosser, J.F., Mousavi Khaneghah, A., Mustafa, G., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A.J., Nagaraju, S.P., Naghavi, M., Naghshtabrizi, B., Naimzada, M.D., Nangia, V., Narasimha Swamy, S., Nascimento, B.R., Naveed, M., Nazari, J., Ndejjo, R., Negoi, I., Negoi, R.I., Nena, E., Nepal, S., Netsere, H.B., Nguefack-Tsague, G., Ngunjiri, J.W., Nguyen, C.T.Y., Nguyen, C.T., Nguyen, H.L.T., Nigatu, Y.T., Nigussie, S.N., Nixon, M.R., Nnaji, C.A., Nomura, S., Noor, N.M., Noubiap, J.J., Nunez-Samudio, V., Nwatah, V.E., Oancea, B., Odukoya, O.O., Ogbo, F.A., Olusanya, B.O., Olusanya, J.O., Omar Bali, A., Onwujekwe, O.E., Ortiz, A., Otoiu, A., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Owolabi, M.O., Mahesh, P.A., Padubidri, J.R., Pakhale, S., Pakshir, K., Pal, P.K., Palladino, R., Pana, A., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Pandi-Perumal, S.R., Pangaribuan, H.U., Pardo-Montaño, A.M., Park, E-K, Patel, S.K., Patton, G.C., Pawar, S., Pazoki Toroudi, H., Peden, A.E., Pepito, V.C.F., Peprah, E.K., Pereira, J., Pérez-Gómez, J., Perico, N., Pesudovs, K., Pilgrim, T., Pinheiro, M., Piradov, M.A., Pirsaheb, M., Platts-Mills, J.A., Pokhrel, K.N., Postma, M.J., Pourjafar, H., Prada, S.I., Prakash, S., Pupillo, E., Quazi Syed, Z., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiee, A., Rafiei, A., Raggi, A., Rahimzadeh, S., Rahman, M.H.U., Rahmani, A.M., Ramezanzadeh, K., Rana, J., Ranabhat, C.L., Rao, S.J., Rasella, D., Rastogi, P., Rathi, P., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rawasia, W.F., Rawassizadeh, R., Reiner Jr, R.C., Remuzzi, G., Renzaho, A.M.N., Reshmi, B., Resnikoff, S., Rezaei, N., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S.M., Ribeiro, D., Rickard, J., Roever, L., Ronfani, L., Rothenbacher, D., Rubagotti, E., Rumisha, S.F., Ryan, P.M., Saddik, B., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi Moghaddam, S., Sagar, R., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M.R., Salehi, S., Salem, M.R., Salimzadeh, H., Salomon, J.A., Samodra, Y.L., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Santric-Milicevic, M.M., Saraswathy, S.Y.I., Sarker, A.R., Sarrafzadegan, N., Sarveazad, A., Sathian, B., Sathish, T., Sattin, D., Saxena, S., Saya, G.K., Saylan, M., Schiavolin, S., Schlaich, M.P., Schwebel, D.C., Schwendicke, F., Senthilkumaran, S., Sepanlou, S.G., Serván-Mori, E., Sha, F., Shafaat, O., Shahabi, S., Shahbaz, M., Shaheen, A.A., Shahid, I., Shaikh, M.A., Shakiba, S., Shalash, A.S., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shannawaz, M., Sharafi, K., Sheikh, A., Sheikhbahaei, S., Shiferaw, W.S., Shigematsu, M., Shin, J.I., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T.J., Sidemo, N.B., 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Ahinkorah, B.O., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Ahmed, M.B., Aji, B., Akalu, Y., Akinyemi, O.O., Aklilu, A., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal, J.E., Al-Eyadhy, A., Ali, T., Alicandro, G., Alif, S.M., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Almasri, N.A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Alonso, J., Al-Raddadi, R.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alumran, A.K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Alvis-Zakzuk, N.J., Ameyaw, E.K., Amini, S., Amini-Rarani, M., Amit, A.M.L., Amugsi, D.A., Ancuceanu, R., Anderlini, D., Andrei, C.L., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonio, C.A.T., Antriyandarti, E., Anvari, D., Anwer, R., Aqeel, M., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aripov, T., Ärnlöv, J., Artanti, K.D., Arzani, A., Asaad, M., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Asadi-Pooya, A.A., Asghari Jafarabadi, M., Athari, S.S., Athari, S.M., Atnafu, D.D., Atreya, A., Atteraya, M.S., Ausloos, M., Awan, A.T., Ayala Quintanilla, B.P., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M.A., Aynalem, Y.A., Azari, S., Azarian, G., Azene, Z.N., Darshan, B.B., Babaee, E., Badiye, A.D., Baig, A.A., Banach, M., Banik, Pa.C., Barker-Collo, S.L., Barqawi, H.J., Bassat, Q., Basu, S., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Beghi, M., Bell, M.L., Bendak, S., Bennett, D.A., Bensenor, I.M., Berhe, K., Berman, A.E., Bezabih, Y.M., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhandari, D., Bhardwaj, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z.A., Bikbov, B., Biondi, A., Birihane, B.M., Biswas, R.K., Bohlouli, S., Bragazzi, N.L., Breusov, A.V., Brunoni, A.R., Burkart, K., Burugina Nagaraja, S., Busse, R., Butt, Z.A., Caetano dos Santos, F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Camargos, P., Cámera, L.A., Cárdenas, R., Carreras, G., Carrero, J.J., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J.M., Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A., Castelpietra, G., Cerin, E., Chang, J-C, Chanie, W.F., Charan, J., Chatterjee, S., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chaturvedi, S., Chen, S., Cho, D.Y., Choi, J-Y.J., Chu, D-T, Ciobanu, L.G., Cirillo, M., Conde, J., Costa, V.M., Couto, R.A.S., Dachew, B.A., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Dai, H., Dai, X., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daneshpajouhnejad, P., Darmstadt, G.L, Das, J.K., Dávila-Cervantes, C.A., Davis, A.C., Davletov, K., De la Hoz, F.P., De Leo, D., Deeba, F., Denova-Gutiérrez, E., Dervenis, N., Desalew, A., Deuba, K., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S.D., Dhingra, S., Dhungana, G.P., Dias da Silva, D., Diaz, D., Dorostkar, F., Doshmangir, L., Dubljanin, E., Duraes, A.R., Eagan, A.W., Edinur, H.A., Efendi, F., Eftekharzadeh, S., El Sayed, I., El Tantawi, M., Elbarazi, I., Elgendy, I.Y., El-Jaafary, S.I., Emami, A., Enany, S., Eyawo, O., Ezzikouri, S., Faris, P.S., Farzadfar, F., Fattahi, N., Fauk, N.K., Fazlzadeh, M., Feigin, V.L., Ferede, T.Y., Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Fisher, J.L., Foigt, N.A., Folayan, M.O., Foroutan, M., Franklin, R.C., Freitas, M., Friedman, S.D., Fukumoto, T., Gad, M.M., Gaidhane, A.M., Gaidhane, S., Gaihre, S., Gallus, S., Garcia-Basteiro, A.L., Garcia-Gordillo, M.A., Gardner, W.M., Gaspar Fonseca, M., Gebremedhin, K.B., Getacher, L., Ghashghaee, A., Gholamian, A., Gilani, S.A., Gill, T.K., Giussani, G., Gnedovskaya, E.V., Godinho, M.A., Goel, A., Golechha, M., Gona, P.N., Gopalani, S.V., Goudarzi, H., Grivna, M., Gugnani, H.C., Guido, D., Guimarães, R.A., Gupta, R.D., Gupta, R., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Haider, M.R., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hamidi, S., Hanif, A., Hankey, G.J., Hargono, A., Hasaballah, A.I., Hasan, M.M., Hasan, S.S., Hassan, A., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Havmoeller, R.J., Hayat, K., Heidari-Soureshjani, R., Henry, N.J., Herteliu, C., Hole, M.K., Holla, R., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Huang, J., Humayun, A., Hwang, B-F, Iavicoli, I., Ibitoye, S.E., Ikuta, K.S., Ilesanmi, O.S., Ilic, I.M., Ilic, M.D., Inamdar, S., Inbaraj, L.R., Iqbal, K., Iqbal, U., Islam, M.M., Islam, S.M.S., Iso, H., Iwagami, M., Iwu, C.C.D., Jaafari, J., Jacobsen, K.H., Jagnoor, J., Jain, V., Janodia, M.D., Javaheri, T., Javanmardi, F., Jayaram, S., Jayatilleke, A.U., Jenabi, E., Jha, R.P., Ji, J.S., John, O., Jonas, J.B., Joo, T., Joseph, N., Joukar, F., Jozwiak, J.J., Jürisson, M., Kabir, A., Kabir, Z., Kalankesh, L.R., Kamyari, N., Kanchan, T., Kapoor, N., Karami Matin, B., Karch, A., Karimi, S.E., Kassahun, G., Kayode, G.A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Kemmer, L., Khalid, N., Khalilov, R., Khammarnia, M., Khan, E.A., Khan, G., Khan, M., Khan, Md.N., Khang, Y-H, Khatab, K., Khater, A.M., Khater, M.M., Khayamzadeh, M., Khosravi, A., Kim, D., Kim, Y-E, Kim, Y.J., Kimokoti, R.W., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kissoon, N., Kopec, J.A., Kosen, S., Koul, P.A., Koulmane Laxminarayana, S.L., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Krishnamoorthy, V., Kuate Defo, B., Kucuk Bicer, B., Kulkarni, V., Kumar, G.A., Kumar, M., Kumar, N., Kurmi, O.P., Kusuma, D., La Vecchia, C., Lacey, B., Lalloo, R., Lami, F.H., Landires, I., Larsson, A.O., Lasrado, S., Lassi, Z.S., Lauriola, P., Lee, P.H., Lee, S.W.H., Lee, Y.H., Leigh, J., Leonardi, M., Lewycka, S., Li, B., Li, S., Liang, J., Lim, L-L, Limenih, M.A., Lin, R-T, Liu, X., Lodha, R., Lopez, A.D., Lozano, R., Lugo, A., Lunevicius, R., Mackay, M.T., Madhava Kunjathur, S., Magnani, F.G., Mahadeshwara Prasad, D.R., Maheri, M., Mahmoudi, M., Majeed, A., Maled, V., Maleki, A., Maleki, S., Malekzadeh, R., Malik, A.A., Malta, D.C., Mamun, A.A., Mansouri, B., Mansournia, M.A., Martinez, G., Martini, S., Martins-Melo, F.R., Masoumi, S.Z., Maulik, P.K., McAlinden, C., McGrath, J.J., Medina-Solís, C.E., Mehrabi Nasab, E., Mejia-Rodriguez, F., Memish, Z.A., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R.G., Mengesha, E.W., Mensah, G.A., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T.J., Mersha, A.M., Mestrovic, T., Miazgowski, B., Miazgowski, T., Michalek, I.M., Miller, T.R., Mini, G.K., Miri, M., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mirzaei, H., Mirzaei, M., Moazen, B., Moghadaszadeh, M., Mohajer, B., Mohamad, O., Mohammad, Y., Mohammadi, S.M., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A.H., Molokhia, M., 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J., Santric-Milicevic, M.M., Saraswathy, S.Y.I., Sarker, A.R., Sarrafzadegan, N., Sarveazad, A., Sathian, B., Sathish, T., Sattin, D., Saxena, S., Saya, G.K., Saylan, M., Schiavolin, S., Schlaich, M.P., Schwebel, D.C., Schwendicke, F., Senthilkumaran, S., Sepanlou, S.G., Serván-Mori, E., Sha, F., Shafaat, O., Shahabi, S., Shahbaz, M., Shaheen, A.A., Shahid, I., Shaikh, M.A., Shakiba, S., Shalash, A.S., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shannawaz, M., Sharafi, K., Sheikh, A., Sheikhbahaei, S., Shiferaw, W.S., Shigematsu, M., Shin, J.I., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T.J., Sidemo, N.B., Sigfusdottir, I.D., Sigurvinsdottir, R., Silva, J.P., Silverberg, J.I.S., Simonetti, B., Singh, B.B., Singh, J.A., Singhal, D., Sinha, D.N., Skiadaresi, E., Skryabin, V.Y., Skryabina, A.A., Sleet, D.A., Sobaih, B.H., Sobhiyeh, M.R., Soltani, S., Soriano, J.B., Spurlock, E.E., Sreeramareddy, C.T., Steiropoulos, P., Stokes, M.A., Stortecky, S., Sufiyan, M.B., Suliankatchi Abdulkader, R., Sulo, G., Swope, C.B., Sykes, B.L., Szeto, M.D., Szócska, M., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tadesse, E.G., Taherkhani, A., Tamiru, A.T., Tareque, M.I., Tehrani-Banihashemi, A., Temsah, M-H, Tesfay, F.H., Tessema, G.A., Tessema, Z.T., Thankappan, K.R., Thapar, R., Tolani, M.A., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Traini, E., Tran, B.X., Tripathy, J.P., Tsapparellas, G., Tsatsakis, A., Tudor Car, L., Uddin, R., Ullah, A., Umeokonkwo, C.D., Unim, B., Unnikrishnan, B., Upadhyay, E., Usman, M.S., Vacante, M., Vaezi, M., Valadan Tahbaz, S., Valdez, P.R., Vasankari, T.J., Venketasubramanian, N., Verma, M., Violante, F.S., Vlassov, V., Vo, B., Vu, G.T., Wado, Y.D., Waheed, Y., Wamai, R.G., Wang, Y., Wang, Y-P, Ward, P., Werdecker, A., Westerman, R., Wickramasinghe, N.D., Wilner, L.B., Wiysonge, C.S., Wu, A-M, Wu, C., Xie, Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H., Yamagishi, K., Yandrapalli, S., Yaya, S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Yoon, S-J, Younis, M.Z., Yousefi, Z., Yousefinezhadi, T., Yu, C., Yusuf, S.S., Zaidi, S.S., Zaman, S.B., Zamani, M., Zamanian, M., Zastrozhin, M.S., Zastrozhina, A., Zhang, Y., Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, Xi-J.G., Ziapour, A., Hay, S.I., Murray, C.J.L., Wang, H., and Kassebaum, N.J.
Abstract: Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an
Published: 2021

17. POS-327 THE COST OF END OF LIFE INPATIENT ENCOUNTERS IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN THE UNITED STATES

Author: ARNOLD, M., primary, Garcia Sanchez, J.J., additional, Carrero, J.J., additional, James, G., additional, Heerspink, H., additional, Abdul Sultan, A., additional, Lam, C., additional, Chen, T., additional, Nolan, S., additional, Pollock, C., additional, and Pecoits-Filho, R., additional
Published: 2021
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18. POS-328 THE BURDEN OF HYPERKALEMIA IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE: A REPORT FROM THE DISCOVER CKD RETROSPECTIVE COHORT

Author: JAMES, G., primary, Carrero, J.J., additional, Kumar, S., additional, Fishbane, S., additional, Wittbrodt, E., additional, Kanda, E., additional, Hedman, K., additional, Kashihara, N., additional, Kosiborod, M., additional, Lainscak, M., additional, Lam, C., additional, Pollock, C., additional, Stenvinkel, P., additional, Wheeler, D.C., additional, and Pecoits-Filho, R., additional
Published: 2021
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19. POS-319 EMERGENCY AND CRITICAL HEALTHCARE RESOURCE UTILISATION OF PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE ACCORDING TO SEVERITY OF ALBUMINURIA: A REPORT FROM THE DISCOVER CKD RETROSPECTIVE COHORT

Author: GARCIA SANCHEZ, J.J., primary, Carrero, J.J., additional, Arnold, M., additional, Heerspink, H., additional, James, G., additional, Lam, C., additional, Abdul Sultan, A., additional, Pollock, C., additional, Chen, T., additional, Nolan, S., additional, and Pecoits-Filho, R., additional
Published: 2021
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20. POS-329 TREATMENT PATTERNS IN CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE PATIENTS WITH HYPERKALEMIA: A REPORT FROM THE DISCOVER CKD RETROSPECTIVE COHORT

Author: JAMES, G., primary, Carrero, J.J., additional, Kumar, S., additional, Fishbane, S., additional, Wittbrodt, E., additional, Kanda, E., additional, Hedman, K., additional, Kashihara, N., additional, Kosiborod, M., additional, Lainscak, M., additional, Lam, C., additional, Pollock, C., additional, Stenvinkel, P., additional, Wheeler, D.C., additional, and Pecoits-Filho, R., additional
Published: 2021
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21. POS-503 EVALUATING CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE PROGRESSION: A REPORT FROM THE DISCOVER CKD RETROSPECTIVE COHORT

Author: ABDUL SULTAN, A., primary, Heerspink, H., additional, Arnold, M., additional, Pollock, C., additional, Garcia Sanchez, J.J., additional, Carrero, J.J., additional, Pecoits-Filho, R., additional, Lam, C., additional, Kashihara, N., additional, Kanda, E., additional, Kosiborod, M., additional, Fishbane, S., additional, Lainscak, M., additional, Stenvinkel, P., additional, and Wheeler, D.C., additional
Published: 2021
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22. Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Author: Hamadeh R.R., Soyiri I.N., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Sripada K., Stovner L.J., Stockfelt L., Sultan I., Swope C.B., Vaicekonyte R., Sykes B.L., Szumowski L., Tabb K.M., Tabuchi T., Taddele B.W., Tahir Z., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Taveira N., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Varughese S., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tsatsakis A., Vardavas C., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Undurraga E.A., Upadhyay E., Vasankari T.J., Vasconcelos A.N., Veisani Y., Vidale S., Waheed Y., Wei J., Wang F., Zhao X.G., Wang Y., Yu C., Zhang Z., Wang H., Weiss J., Wiangkham T., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wu A., Xie Y., Xu G., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S., Yilgwan C.S., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Younker T.P., Yu Y., Zaidi S., Zhang J., Zhang Y., Zheleva B., Zhu C., Abbafati C., Machado D.B., Cislaghi B., Salman O.M., Karanikolos M., McKee M., Abbas K.M., Brady O.J., Larson H.J., Trias-Llimos S., Cummins S., Langan S.M., Sartorius B., Hafiz A., Jenabi E., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Borzouei S., Azarian G., Khazaei S., Abbasi M., Asghari B., Masoumi S., Komaki H., Taherkhani A., Adabi M., Abbasifard M., Bazmandegan G., Kamiab Z., Vakilian A., Anjomshoa M., Mokari A., Sabour S., Shahbaz M., Saeedi R., Ahmadieh H., Yousefinezhadi T., Haj-Mirzaian A., Nikbakhsh R., Safi S., Asgari S., Irvani S.N., Jahanmehr N., Ramezanzadeh K., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Khayamzadeh M., Abbastabar H., Shirkoohi R., Fazlzadeh M., Janjani H., Hosseini M., Mansournia M., Tohidinik H., Bakhtiari A., Fazaeli A., Mousavi S., Hasanzadeh A., Nabavizadeh B., Malekzadeh R., Hashemian M., Pourshams A., Salimzadeh H., Sepanlou S.G., Afarideh M., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Ghajar A., Heidari B., Rezaei N., Mohamadi E., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahim F., Eskandarieh S., Sahraian M., Mohebi F., Aminorroaya A., Ebrahimi H., Farzadfar F., Mohajer B., Pishgar F., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Shabani M., Zarafshan H., Abolhassani H., Hafezi-Nejad N., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Abdollahi M., Farahmand M., Salamati P., Mehrabi Nasab E., Tajdini M., Aghamir 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C.D., Castro E., Causey K., Cercy K.M., Chalek J., Cohen A.J., Comfort H., Compton K., Croneberger A.J., Cruz J.A., Cunningham M., Dangel W.J., Dean F.E., DeCleene N.K., Deen A., Degenhardt L., Dingels Z.V., Dippenaar I.N., Dirac M.A., Dolgert A.J., Emmons-Bell S., Estep K., Farag T., Feigin V.L., Feldman R., Ferrara G., Ferrari A.J., Fitzgerald R., Force L.M., Fox J.T., Frank T.D., Fu W., Fukutaki K., Fuller J.E., Fullman N., Galles N.C., Gardner W.M., Gershberg Hayoon A., Goren E., Gorman T.M., Gottlich H.C., Guo G., Haddock B., Hagins H., Haile L.M., Hamilton E.B., Han C., Han H., Harvey J.D., Henny K., Henrikson H.J., Henry N.J., Herbert M.E., Hsiao T., Huynh C.K., Iannucci V.C., Ippolito H., Irvine C.M.S., Jafari H., Jahagirdar D., James S.L., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Keller C., Kemmer L., Kendrick P.J., Knight M., Kocarnik J.M., Krohn K.J., Larson S.L., Lau K.M., Ledesma J.R., Leever A.T., LeGrand K.E., Lescinsky H., Lin C., Liu H., Liu Z., Lo J., Lu A., Ma J., Maddison E.R., 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Otstavnov S.S., Soshnikov S., Titova M.V., Nair S., Naldi L., Nangia V., Nansseu J., Sobngwi E., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ndejjo R., Ngari K.N., Ngunjiri J.W., Nigatu Y.T., Oancea B., Oh I., Okunga E.W., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Ong S., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V., Ortiz A., Soriano J.B., Osarenotor O., Ostojic S.M., Vlassov V., Pa M., Pangaribuan H.U., Park E., Pasupula D., Patel J.R., Patel S.K., Paternina-Caicedo A.J., Pathak M., Pathak A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Weintraub R.G., Paudel S., Pepito V.F., Thurston G.D., Peprah E.K., Pereira J., Pescarini J.M., Piccinelli C., Pilgrim T., Plass D., Pokhrel K.N., Prada S.I., Prakash V., Prakash S., Prasad N., Shigematsu M., Pribadi D.R.A., Sudaryanto A., Rabiee M., Radfar A., Ranabhat C.L., Ranta A., Ribeiro D.C., Rao S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Renjith V., Rickard J., Roever L., Romoli M., Rostamian M., Rubagotti E., Rwegerera G.M., Ullah S., Sajadi S., Salam N., Salomon J.A., Salz I., Saraswathy S.Y., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sathian B., Savic M., Saylan M., Schwendicke F., Sekerija M., Senthilkumaran S., Sha F., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Shannawaz M., Sharma R., Shin J., Shiri R., Sierpinski R., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva D.A.S., Simonetti B., Singh A., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skou S.T., Skryabin V.Y., Zastrozhin M.S., Soheili A., Sokhan A., Somefun O.D., and Korotkova A.V.
Abstract: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
Published: 2020

23. Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Author: Shetty B.S.K., Stein C., Stokes M.A., Sufiyan M.B., Suleria H.A.R., Sultan I., Szumowski L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S.K., Taddele B.W., Tadesse D.B., Taherkhani A., Tamiru A.T., Tanser F.C., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Teagle W.L., Tediosi F., Tefera Y.G.G., Tela F.G., Tessema Z.T., Thakur B., Titova M.V., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tovani-Palone M.R.R., Tran B.X., Travillian R., Troeger C.E., Tudor Car L., Uddin R., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uthman O.A., Vacante M., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Vasseghian Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vongpradith A., Vos T., Waheed Y., Walters M.K., Wamai R.G., Wang H., Wang Y.-P., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Wilner L.B., Woldu G., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu A.-M., Wulf Hanson S., Xie Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamagishi K., Yano Y., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yearwood J.A., Yeshitila Y.G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefi Z., Yousefinezhadi T., Yusefzadeh H., Zadey S., Zahirian Moghadam T., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zandian H., Zastrozhin M.S., Zewdie K.A., Zhang Y., Zhao X.-J.G., Zhao Y., Zheng P., Zhu C., Ziapour A., Zlavog B.S., Zodpey S., Murray C.J.L., Lozano R., Fullman N., Mumford J.E., Knight M., Barthelemy C.M., Abbafati C., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdollahi M., Abedi A., Abolhassani H., Abosetugn A.E., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu Haimed A.K., Abushouk A.I., Adabi M., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adelson J., Adetokunboh O.O., Adham D., Advani S.M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Aghamir S.M.K., Agrawal A., Ahmad T., Akinyemi R.O., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Albertson S.B., Alemu Y.M., Alhassan R.K., Ali M., Ali S., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Alla F., Almadi M.A.H., Almasi A., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almasri N.A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Almulhim A.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Alvis-Zakzuk N.J., Amini S., Amini-Rarani M., Amiri F., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari F., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Antonio C.A.T., Antony C.M., Antriyandarti E., Anvari D., Anwer R., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Aravkin A.Y., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Asaad M., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Asadi-Pooya A.A., Athari S.S., Atout M.M.W., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayano G., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Aynalem G.L., Ayza M.A., Azari S., Azzopardi P.S., B D.B., Babaee E., Badiye A.D., Bahrami M.A., Baig A.A., Bakhshaei M.H., Bakhtiari A., Bakkannavar S.M., Balachandran A., Banach M., Banerjee S.K., Banik P.C., Bante A.B., Bante S.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Bassat Q., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bekuma T.T.T., Bell M.L., Bensenor I.M., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj P., Bhat A.G., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Biondi A., Birihane B.M., Bockarie M.J., Bohlouli S., Bojia H.A., Bolla S.R.R., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Braithwaite D., Briggs A.M., Briko N.I., Burugina Nagaraja S., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Caetano dos Santos F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L.A., Cardenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castelpietra G., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cederroth C.R., Cerin E., Chandan J.S., Chang A.Y., Charan J., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chin K.L., Cho D.Y., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Chung M.T., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Compton K., Cortesi P.A., Costa V.M., Cousin E., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona L., Dandona R., Darega Gela J., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Dash A.P., Davey G., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davletov K., De Neve J.-W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Desai R., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Dias da Silva D., Diaz D., Dippenaar I.N., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Edvardsson D., El Sayed I., El Tantawi M., Elgendy I.Y., Elyazar I.R., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esteghamati A., Ezekannagha O., Farag T., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Farioli A., Faris P.S., Faro A., Fazlzadeh M., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fisher J.L., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fomenkov A.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fu W., Fukumoto T., Furtado J.M., Gad M.M., Gaidhane A.M., Gakidou E., Galles N.C., Gallus S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremeskel L.G., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghafourifard M., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginindza T.G., Gitimoghaddam M., Giussani G., Glagn M., Gnedovskaya E.V., Godinho M.A., Goharinezhad S., Gopalani S.V., Goudarzian A.H., Goulart B.N.G., Gubari M.I.M., Guimaraes R.A., Guled R.A., Gultie T., Guo Y., Gupta R., 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Kalhor R., Kamath A.M., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami Matin B., Karanikolos M., Karimi S.M., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kayode G.A., Keiyoro P.N., Khader Y.S., Khammarnia M., Khan M., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Khayamzadeh M., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Kneib C.J., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kohler S., Kopec J.A., Korotkova A.V., Korshunov V.A., Kosen S., Kotlo A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kugbey N., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Kyu H.H., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lau K.M.-M., Lauriola P., Lazarus J.V., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Lee S.W.H., Leever A.T., LeGrand K.E., Leigh J., Leonardi M., Li S., Lim S.S., Lim L.-L., Liu X., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lopukhov P.D., Lotufo P.A., Lu A., Ma J., Madadin M., Mahasha P.W., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Malagon-Rojas J.N., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mansouri B., Mansournia M.A., Martini S., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Massenburg B.B., Mastrogiacomo C.I., Mathur M.R., McAlinden C., McKee M., Medina-Solis C.E., Meharie B.G., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrabi Nasab E., Mehri F., Mehrotra R., Mekonnen T., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I.M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad Y., Mohammad D.K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed S., Mohammed J.A., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Mondello S., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Mosser J.F., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Naghshtabrizi B., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak 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Rahman M.A., Rajabpour-Sanati A., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rasella D., Rashedi V., Rath G.K., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Razo C., Renjith V., Renzaho A.M.N., Reshmi B., Rezaei N., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro D.C., Rickard J., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Romoli M., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rubagotti E., Rwegerera G.M., Sabour S., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi M., Sadeghi E., Safari Y., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi S.M., Salahshoor M.R., Salem M.R.R., Salem H., Salomon J., Samadi Kafil H., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Santric-Milicevic M.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sarveazad A., Sathian B., Sathish T., Sattin D., Savic M., Sawyer S.M., Saxena D., Sbarra A.N., Schaeffer L.E., Schiavolin S., Schmidt M.I., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sha F., Shahabi S., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Shannawaz M., Sharafi K., Sharara F., Sharifi H., Shaw D.H., Sheikh A., Sheikhtaheri A., 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Bakhtiari A., Bakkannavar S.M., Balachandran A., Banach M., Banerjee S.K., Banik P.C., Bante A.B., Bante S.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Bassat Q., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bekuma T.T.T., Bell M.L., Bensenor I.M., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj P., Bhat A.G., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Biondi A., Birihane B.M., Bockarie M.J., Bohlouli S., Bojia H.A., Bolla S.R.R., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Braithwaite D., Briggs A.M., Briko N.I., Burugina Nagaraja S., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Caetano dos Santos F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L.A., Cardenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castelpietra G., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cederroth C.R., Cerin E., Chandan J.S., Chang A.Y., Charan J., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chin K.L., Cho D.Y., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Chung M.T., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Compton K., Cortesi P.A., Costa V.M., Cousin E., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona L., Dandona R., Darega Gela J., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Dash A.P., Davey G., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davletov K., De Neve J.-W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Desai R., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Dias da Silva D., Diaz D., Dippenaar I.N., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Edvardsson D., El Sayed I., El Tantawi M., Elgendy I.Y., Elyazar I.R., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esteghamati A., Ezekannagha O., Farag T., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Farioli A., Faris P.S., Faro A., Fazlzadeh M., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fisher J.L., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fomenkov A.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fu W., Fukumoto T., Furtado J.M., Gad M.M., Gaidhane A.M., Gakidou E., Galles N.C., Gallus S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremeskel L.G., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghafourifard M., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginindza T.G., Gitimoghaddam M., Giussani G., Glagn M., Gnedovskaya E.V., Godinho M.A., Goharinezhad S., Gopalani S.V., Goudarzian A.H., Goulart B.N.G., Gubari M.I.M., Guimaraes R.A., Guled R.A., Gultie T., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hafiz A., Haile T.G., Hamadeh R.R., Hameed S., Hamidi S., Han C., Han H., Handiso D.W., Hanif A., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan M.M., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hassan A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Havmoeller R.J., Hay S.I., Hayat K., Heidari G., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Hendrie D., Herteliu C., Hird T.R., Ho H.C., Hole M.K., Holla R., Hoogar P., Hopf K.P., Horita N., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Hsieh V.C.-R., Hu G., Huda T.M., Humayun A., Hwang B.-F., Iavicoli I., Ibitoye S.E., 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Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Kyu H.H., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lau K.M.-M., Lauriola P., Lazarus J.V., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Lee S.W.H., Leever A.T., LeGrand K.E., Leigh J., Leonardi M., Li S., Lim S.S., Lim L.-L., Liu X., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lopukhov P.D., Lotufo P.A., Lu A., Ma J., Madadin M., Mahasha P.W., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Malagon-Rojas J.N., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mansouri B., Mansournia M.A., Martini S., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Massenburg B.B., Mastrogiacomo C.I., Mathur M.R., McAlinden C., McKee M., Medina-Solis C.E., Meharie B.G., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrabi Nasab E., Mehri F., Mehrotra R., Mekonnen T., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I.M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi 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Abstract: Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Method(s): Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (>=65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UH
Published: 2020

24. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Author: Hird T.R., Shannawaz M., Sharma R., Shin J., Shiri R., Sierpinski R., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva D.A.S., Simonetti B., Singh A., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skou S.T., Skryabin V.Y., Zastrozhin M.S., Soheili A., Sokhan A., Somefun O.D., Korotkova A.V., Soyiri I.N., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Sripada K., Stovner L.J., Stockfelt L., Sultan I., Swope C.B., Vaicekonyte R., Sykes B.L., Szumowski L., Tabb K.M., Tabuchi T., Taddele B.W., Tahir Z., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Taveira N., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Varughese S., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tsatsakis A., Vardavas C., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Undurraga E.A., Upadhyay E., Vasankari T.J., Vasconcelos A.N., Veisani Y., Vidale S., Waheed Y., Wei J., Wang F., Zhao X.G., Wang Y., Yu C., Zhang Z., Wang H., Weiss J., Wiangkham T., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wu A., Xie Y., Xu G., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S., Yilgwan C.S., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Younker T.P., Yu Y., Zaidi S., Zhang J., Zhang Y., Zheleva B., Zhu C., Abbafati C., Machado D.B., Cislaghi B., Salman O.M., Karanikolos M., McKee M., Abbas K.M., Brady O.J., Larson H.J., Trias-Llimos S., Cummins S., Langan S.M., Sartorius B., Hafiz A., Jenabi E., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Borzouei S., Azarian G., Khazaei S., Abbasi M., Asghari B., Masoumi S., Komaki H., Taherkhani A., Adabi M., Abbasifard M., Bazmandegan G., Kamiab Z., Vakilian A., Anjomshoa M., Mokari A., Sabour S., Shahbaz M., Saeedi R., Ahmadieh H., Yousefinezhadi T., Haj-Mirzaian A., Nikbakhsh R., Safi S., Asgari S., Irvani S.N., Jahanmehr N., Ramezanzadeh K., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Khayamzadeh M., Abbastabar H., Shirkoohi R., Fazlzadeh M., Janjani H., Hosseini M., Mansournia M., Tohidinik H., Bakhtiari A., Fazaeli A., Mousavi S., Hasanzadeh A., Nabavizadeh B., Malekzadeh R., Hashemian M., Pourshams A., Salimzadeh H., Sepanlou S.G., Afarideh M., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Ghajar A., Heidari B., Rezaei N., Mohamadi E., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahim F., Eskandarieh S., Sahraian M., Mohebi F., Aminorroaya A., Ebrahimi H., Farzadfar F., Mohajer B., Pishgar F., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Shabani M., Zarafshan H., Abolhassani H., Hafezi-Nejad N., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Abdollahi M., Farahmand M., Salamati P., Mehrabi Nasab E., Tajdini M., Aghamir S., Mirzaei R., Dibaji Forooshani Z., Khater M.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abualhasan A., El-Jaafary S.I., Hassan A., Elsharkawy A., Khater A.M., Elhabashy H.R., Salem M.R.R., Salem H., Sadeghi M., Jafarinia M., Amini-Rarani M., Mohammadifard N., Sarrafzadegan N., Abdollahpour I., Sarveazad A., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Yoosefi Lebni J., Manafi N., Pazoki Toroudi H., Dorostkar F., Alipour V., Sheikhtaheri A., Arabloo J., Azari S., Ghashghaee A., Rezapour A., Naserbakht M., Kabir A., Mehri F., Yousefifard M., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Babaee E., Eshrati B., Goharinezhad S., Moradi M., Abedi P., Rashedi V., Kumar V., Elgendy I.Y., Basu S., Park J., Pereira A., Norheim O.F., Eagan A.W., Cahill L.E., Sheikh A., Abushouk A.I., Thakur B., Barnighausen T.W., Shrime M.G., Abedi A., Doshi C.P., Abegaz K.H., Geberemariyam B.S., Aynalem Y.A., Shiferaw W.S., Abosetugn A.E., Aboyans V., Abrams E.M., Gitimoghaddam M., Kissoon N., Stubbs J.L., Brauer M., Iyamu I.O., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Ribeiro A.P., Malta D.C., Gomez R.S., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Almulhim A.M., Dahlawi S.M.A., Pottoo F.H., Menezes R.G., Alanzi T.M., Alumran A.K., Abu Haimed A.K., Madadin M., Alanezi F.M., Abu-Gharbieh E., Saddik B., Abu-Raddad L.J., Samy A.M., El Nahas N., Shalash A.S., Nabhan A.F., Kamath A.M., Kassebaum N.J., Aravkin A.Y., Kochhar S., Sorensen R.J.D., Afshin A., Burkart K., Cromwell E.A., Gakidou E., Hay S.I., Kyu H.H., Lopez A.D., Lozano R., Misganaw A.T., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Pigott D.M., Reiner Jr R.C., Roth G.A., Stanaway J.D., Vollset S., Vos T., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., Kalani R., Ikuta K.S., Cho D.Y., Kneib C.J., Crowe C.S., Massenburg B.B., Morrison S.D., Acebedo A., Adelson J.D., Agesa K.M., Alam T., Albertson S.B., Anderson J.A., Antony C.M., Ashbaugh C., Assmus M., Azhar G., Balassyano S., Bannick M.S., Barthelemy C.M., Bender R.G., Bennitt F.B., Bertolacci G.J., Biehl M.H., Bisignano C., Boon-Dooley A.S., Briant P.S., Bryazka D., Bumgarner B.R., Callender C.S., Cao J., Castle C.D., Castro E., Causey K., Cercy K.M., Chalek J., Cohen A.J., Comfort H., Compton K., Croneberger A.J., Cruz J.A., Cunningham M., Dangel W.J., Dean F.E., DeCleene N.K., Deen A., Degenhardt L., Dingels Z.V., Dippenaar I.N., Dirac M.A., Dolgert A.J., Emmons-Bell S., Estep K., Farag T., Feigin V.L., Feldman R., Ferrara G., Ferrari A.J., Fitzgerald R., Force L.M., Fox J.T., Frank T.D., Fu W., Fukutaki K., Fuller J.E., Fullman N., Galles N.C., Gardner W.M., Gershberg Hayoon A., Goren E., Gorman T.M., Gottlich H.C., Guo G., Haddock B., Hagins H., Haile L.M., Hamilton E.B., Han C., Han H., Harvey J.D., Henny K., Henrikson H.J., Henry N.J., Herbert M.E., Hsiao T., Huynh C.K., Iannucci V.C., Ippolito H., Irvine C.M.S., Jafari H., Jahagirdar D., James 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Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Lazarus J.V., Straif K., Ghiasvand H., Ghith N., Norrving B., Mehta K.M., Mohamad O., Salama J.S., Ghosh R., Giampaoli S., Gilani S., Hameed S., Hanif A., Rana S.M., Uthman O.A., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A., Ginindza T.G., Tlou B., Tanser F.C., Gnedovskaya E.V., Kravchenko M.A., Piradov M.A., Golechha M., Goli S., Milne G.J., Schlaich M.P., Hankey G.J., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Goudarzi H., Rawassizadeh R., Grada A., Nsoesie E.O., Javaheri T., Rawaf S., Steel N., Gubari M.I.M., Gugnani H.C., Guimaraes A.L.S., Guimaraes R.A., Guled R.A., Senbeta A.M., Hashi A., Omer M.O., Yousuf A.Y., Gupta S.S., Gupta T., Gupta R., Haagsma J.A., Polinder S., Hachinski V., Stranges S., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tyrovolas S., Hasaballah A.I., Hassanipour S., Joukar F., Mansour-Ghanaei F., Jaafari J., Havmoeller R.J., Hayat K., Heibati B., Heidari G., Henok A., Moraga P., Sigfusdottir I.D., Phillips M.R., Hole M.K., Hollingsworth B., Hopf K.P., Hosgood H., Hossain N., Mai H.T., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Pham H.Q., Nguyen D.N., Househ M., Hsairi M., Lin R., Hsieh V., Hwang B., Hu K., Humayun A., Hussain R., Ibeneme C.U., Ikeda N., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Islami F., Yamagishi K., Iso H., Iwu C.C.D., Jacobsen K.H., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jia P., Osei F.B., Schutte A.E., Johansson L., Szocska M., Joo T., Jozwiak J.J., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Roshandel G., Oladnabi M., Kalani H., Kassa G.M., Katikireddi S.V., Yamada T., Nomura S., Kawakami N., Kayode G.A., Kromhout H., Traini E., Kumar M., Keiyoro P.N., Muriithi M.K., Wamai R.G., Khader Y.S., Khalid N., Khan E.A., Khang Y., Khatab K., Khubchandani J., Yoon S., Shin M., Kim C., Kim Y., Kim D., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa S., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Topor-Madry R., Lallukka T., Meretoja T.J., Shivakumar K.M., Knudsen A.S., Sulo G., Kosen S., Kotlo A., Koul P.A., Krishan K., KS S., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Yuce D., Rawat R., Meitei W.B., Kumar P., Singh P., Kumaresh G., Lami F.H., Landires I., Nunez-Samudio V., Landires, Lansingh V.C., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Lee S.W.H., Leonardi M., Raggi A., Sattin PsyD, S Schiavolin D., Li B., Lim L., Takahashi K., Linehan C., Linn S., Shuval K., Listl S., Zhou M., Liu S., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lorkowski S., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahmoudi M., Maled V., Moradi G., Maleki A., Manafi A., Mapoma C., Martini S., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., McAlinden C., Momen N.C., Plana-Ripoll O., Medina-Solis C.E., Meharie B., Mehndiratta M., Mehrotra R., Suliankatchi Abdulkader R., Mekonnen T., Memiah P.T.N., Wallin M.T., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I., Mini G., Miri M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei H., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadpourhodki R., Sahebkar A., Mohammed H., Sufiyan M.B., Mohseni Bandpei M.A., Monasta L., Ronfani L., Mondello S., Moradi-Joo M., Morawska L., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Westerman R., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K., Mustafa G., Nagarajan A.J., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naik G., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Naimzada M., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Soshnikov S., Titova M.V., Nair S., Naldi L., Nangia V., Nansseu J., Sobngwi E., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ndejjo R., Ngari K.N., Ngunjiri J.W., Nigatu Y.T., Oancea B., Oh I., Okunga E.W., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Ong S., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V., Ortiz A., Soriano J.B., Osarenotor O., Ostojic S.M., Vlassov V., Pa M., Pangaribuan H.U., Park E., Pasupula D., Patel J.R., Patel S.K., Paternina-Caicedo A.J., Pathak M., Pathak A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Weintraub R.G., Paudel S., Pepito V.F., Thurston G.D., Peprah E.K., Pereira J., Pescarini J.M., Piccinelli C., Pilgrim T., Plass D., Pokhrel K.N., Prada S.I., Prakash V., Prakash S., Prasad N., Shigematsu M., Pribadi D.R.A., Sudaryanto A., Rabiee M., Radfar A., Ranabhat C.L., Ranta A., Ribeiro D.C., Rao S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Renjith V., Rickard J., Roever L., Romoli M., Rostamian M., Rubagotti E., Rwegerera G.M., Ullah S., Sajadi S., Salam N., Salomon J.A., Salz I., Saraswathy S.Y., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sathian B., Savic M., Saylan M., Schwendicke F., Sekerija M., Senthilkumaran S., Sha F., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., and Shamsizadeh M.
Abstract: Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Method(s): 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a B
Published: 2020

25. Falls in older aged adults in 22 European countries: Incidence, mortality and burden of disease from 1990 to 2017

Author: Haagsma, J.A. (Juanita), Olij, B.F. (Branko), Majdan, M. (Marek), Beeck, E.F. (Ed) van, Vos, T. (Theo), Castle, C.D. (Chris D.), Dingels, Z.V. (Zachary V.), Fox, J.T. (Jack T.), Hamilton, E.B. (Erin B.), Liu, Z. (Zichen), Roberts, N.L.S. (Nicholas L.S.), Sylte, D.O. (Dillon O.), Aremu, O. (Olatunde), Bärnighausen, T. (Till), Borzì, A.M. (Antonio M.), Briggs, A.M. (Andrew M.), Carrero, J.J. (Juan J.), Cooper, C. (Charles), El-Khatib, Z. (Ziad), Ellingsen, C.L. (Christian Lycke), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Filip, I. (Irina), Fischer, F. (Florian), Haro, J.M. (Josep Maria), Jonas, J.B. (Jost B.), Kiadaliri, A.A. (Aliasghar A.), Koyanagi, A. (Ai), Lunevicius, R. (Raimundas), Meretoja, T.J. (Tuomo J.), Mohammed, S. (Shafiu), Pathak, A. (Ashish), Radfar, A. (Amir), Rawaf, S. (Salman), Rawaf, D.L. (David Laith), Riera, L.S. (Lidia Sanchez), Shiue, I. (Ivy), Vasankari, T.J. (Tommi Juhani), James, S.L. (Spencer L.), Polinder, S. (Suzanne), Haagsma, J.A. (Juanita), Olij, B.F. (Branko), Majdan, M. (Marek), Beeck, E.F. (Ed) van, Vos, T. (Theo), Castle, C.D. (Chris D.), Dingels, Z.V. (Zachary V.), Fox, J.T. (Jack T.), Hamilton, E.B. (Erin B.), Liu, Z. (Zichen), Roberts, N.L.S. (Nicholas L.S.), Sylte, D.O. (Dillon O.), Aremu, O. (Olatunde), Bärnighausen, T. (Till), Borzì, A.M. (Antonio M.), Briggs, A.M. (Andrew M.), Carrero, J.J. (Juan J.), Cooper, C. (Charles), El-Khatib, Z. (Ziad), Ellingsen, C.L. (Christian Lycke), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Filip, I. (Irina), Fischer, F. (Florian), Haro, J.M. (Josep Maria), Jonas, J.B. (Jost B.), Kiadaliri, A.A. (Aliasghar A.), Koyanagi, A. (Ai), Lunevicius, R. (Raimundas), Meretoja, T.J. (Tuomo J.), Mohammed, S. (Shafiu), Pathak, A. (Ashish), Radfar, A. (Amir), Rawaf, S. (Salman), Rawaf, D.L. (David Laith), Riera, L.S. (Lidia Sanchez), Shiue, I. (Ivy), Vasankari, T.J. (Tommi Juhani), James, S.L. (Spencer L.), and Polinder, S. (Suzanne)
Abstract: Introduction: Falls in older aged adults are an important public health problem. Insight into differences in fall-related injury rates between countries can serve as important input for identifying and evaluating prevention strategies. The objectives of this study were to compare Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates on incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to fall-related injury in older adults across 22 countries in the Western European region and to examine changes over a 28-year period. Methods: We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2017 results on age-standardised fall-related injury in older adults aged 70 years and older in 22 countries from 1990 to 2017. Results: In 2017, in the Western European region, 13 840 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval (UI) 11 837-16 113) older adults sought medical treatment for fall-related injury, ranging from 7594 per 100 000 (UI 6326-9032) in Greece to 19 796 per 100 000 (UI 15 536-24 233) in Norway. Since 1990, fall-related injury DALY rates showed little change for the whole region, but patterns varied widely between countries. Some countries (eg, Belgium and Netherlands) have lost their favourable positions due to an increasing fall-related injury burden of disease since 1990. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2017, there was considerable variation in fall-related injury incidence, mortality, DALY rates and its composites in the 22 countries in the Western European region. It may be useful to assess which fall prevention measures have been taken in countries that showed continuous low or decreasing incidence, death and DALY rates despite ageing of the population.
Published: 2020
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26. PUK12 Using Real-World DATA to Improve the Accuracy of Economic Models; Experience from the Swedish Renal Register

Author: Carrero, J.J., primary, Andersson-Franko, M., additional, Xu, Y., additional, Lauppe, R., additional, Lilja, M., additional, and Soro, M., additional
Published: 2020
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27. One-month administration of hydroxytyrosol, a phenolic antioxidant present in olive oil, to hyperlipemic rabbits improves blood lipid profile, antioxidant status and reduces atherosclerosis development

Author: González-Santiago, M., Martín-Bautista, E., Carrero, J.J., Fonollá, J., Baró, L., Bartolomé, M.V., Gil-Loyzaga, P., and López-Huertas, E.
Published: 2006
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28. Association between use of beta-blockers and mortality/morbidity in patients with heart failure with reduced, midrange or preserved ejection fraction and advanced chronic kidney disease

Author: Fu, E, primary, Uijl, A, additional, Dekker, F.W, additional, Lund, L.H, additional, Savarese, G, additional, and Carrero, J.J, additional
Published: 2020
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29. The long pentraxin PTX-3 in prevalent hemodialysis patients: associations with comorbidities and mortality

Author: Suliman, M.E., Qureshi, A.R., Carrero, J.J., Bárány, P., Yilmaz, M.I., Snaedal-Jonsdottir, S., Alvestrand, A., Heimbürger, O., Lindholm, B., and Stenvinkel, P.
Published: 2008

30. Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Author: Fitzmaurice, C. Abate, D. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdelalim, A. Abdoli, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulle, A.S.M. Abebe, N.D. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abualhasan, A. Adedeji, I.A. Advani, S.M. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Aghaali, M. Agius, D. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Al-Aly, Z. Alabdulkader, A.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, T. Alamene, G.M. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alinia, C. Alipour, V. Aljunid, S.M. Bakeshei, F.A. Almadi, M.A.H. Almasi-Hashiani, A. Alsharif, U. Alsowaidi, S. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, E. Amini, S. Amoako, Y.A. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, F. Ansariadi, A. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arab-Zozani, M. Arabloo, J. Arefi, Z. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Artaman, A. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Assadi, R. Ataeinia, B. Atalay, H.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayanore, M.A. Ayele, H.T. Babaee, E. Bacha, U. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Bagli, E. Balakrishnan, S. Balouchi, A. Barnighausen, T.W. Battista, R.J. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M. Berfield, K.K.S. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Beuran, M. Bhakta, N. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birungi, C. Bisignano, C. Bitew, H. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Borzi, A.M. Bosetti, C. Bou-Orm, I.R. Brenner, H. Brewer, J.D. Briko, A.N. Briko, N.I. Bustamante-Teixeira, M.T. Butt, Z.A. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chanie, W.F. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chauhan, N.S. Chehrazi, M. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chichiabellu, T.Y. Chido-Amajuoyi, O.G. Chimed-Ochir, O. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Constantin, M.-M. Costa, V.M. Crocetti, E. Crowe, C.S. Curado, M.P. Dahlawi, S.M.A. Damiani, G. Darwish, A.H. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B. Demissie, B.W. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Derakhshani, A. Deribe, K.S. Desai, R. Desalegn, B.B. Desta, M. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Diaz, D. Dinberu, M.T.T. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Drake, T.M. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Ebrahimi, H. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed, I. Zaki, M.E.S. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elemineh, D.A. Elkout, H. Ellenbogen, R.G. Elsharkawy, A. Emamian, M.H. Endalew, D.A. Endries, A.Y. Eshrati, B. Fadhil, I. Fallah, V. Faramarzi, M. Farhangi, M.A. Farioli, A. Farzadfar, F. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fisher, J.L. Force, L.M. Foroutan, M. Freitas, M. Fukumoto, T. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Gankpe, F.G. Gayesa, R.T. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Geta, B. Getachew, S. Gezae, K.E. Ghafourifard, M. Ghajar, A. Ghashghaee, A. Gholamian, A. Gill, P.S. Ginindza, T.T.G. Girmay, A. Gizaw, M. Gomez, R.S. Gopalani, S.V. Gorini, G. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Ribeiro Guerra, M. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Hadkhale, K. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hanfore, L.K. Haro, J.M. Hasankhani, M. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Hidru, H.D. Hoang, C.L. Hole, M.K. Hoogar, P. Horita, N. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Househ, M. Hussen, M.M. Ileanu, B. Ilic, M.D. Innos, K. Irvani, S.S.N. Iseh, K.R. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jafari Balalami, N. Jafarinia, M. Jahangiry, L. Jahani, M.A. Jahanmehr, N. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayaraman, S. Jee, S.H. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Joo, T. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, A. Kamangar, F. Karch, A. Karimi, N. Karimian, A. Kasaeian, A. Kasahun, G.G. Kassa, B. Kassa, T.D. Kassaw, M.W. Kaul, A. Keiyoro, P.N. Kelbore, A.G. Kerbo, A.A. Khader, Y.S. Khalilarjmandi, M. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khater, A. Khayamzadeh, M. Khazaee-Pool, M. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kianipour, N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Komaki, H. Koyanagi, A. Krohn, K.J. Bicer, B.K. Kugbey, N. Kumar, V. Kuupiel, D. La Vecchia, C. Lad, D.P. Lake, E.A. Lakew, A.M. Lal, D.K. Lami, F.H. Lan, Q. Lasrado, S. Lauriola, P. Lazarus, J.V. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Liao, Y. Limenih, M.A. Listl, S. Lopez, A.D. Lopukhov, P.D. Lunevicius, R. Madadin, M. Magdeldin, S. El Razek, H.M.A. Majeed, A. Maleki, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, A. Manafi, N. Manamo, W.A. Mansourian, M. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maroufizadeh, S. Martini, S.M.S. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Maswabi, M.T. Mathur, M.R. McAlinden, C. McKee, M. Meheretu, H.A.A. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Melaku, Y.A. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Mendoza, W. Menezes, R.G. Merat, S. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Mihretie, K.M.M. Miller, T.R. Mills, E.J. Mir, S.M. Mirzaei, H. Mirzaei, H.R. Mishra, R. Moazen, B. Mohammad, D.K. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Darwesh, A.M. Mohammadbeigi, A. Mohammadi, H. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadian, M. Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammadpourhodki, R. Mohammed, A.S. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Joo, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradpour, F. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-costa, J. Morisaki, N. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muhammed, O.S.S. Musa, J. Nabhan, A.R. Naderi, M. Nagarajan, A.J. Nagel, G. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nasiri, N. Nazari, J. Negoi, I. Neupane, S. Newcomb, P.A. Nggada, H.A. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, C.T. Nikniaz, L. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Nojomi, M. Nosratnejad, S. Shiadeh, M.N. Obsa, M.S. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Oluwasanu, M.M. Omonisi, A.E. Onwujekwe, O.E. Oommen, A.M. Oren, E. Ortega-Altamirano, D.D.V. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. P A, M. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Park, E.-K. Parsian, H. Pashaei, T. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Pennini, A. Pereira, D.M. Piccinelli, C. Pillay, J.D. Pirestani, M. Pishgar, F. Postma, M.J. Pourjafar, H. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, M. Rahman, M.A. Rajati, F. Rana, S.M. Raoofi, S. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reiner, R.C. Renzaho, A.M.N. Rezaei, N. Rezapour, A. Ribeiro, A.I. Ribeiro, D. Ronfani, L. Roro, E.M. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Saad, R.S. Sabbagh, P. Sabour, S. Saddik, B. Safiri, S. Sahebkar, A. Salahshoor, M.R. Salehi, F. Salem, H. Salem, M.R. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sartorius, B. Sarveazad, A. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Sepehrimanesh, M. Seyedmousavi, S. Shaahmadi, F. Shabaninejad, H. Shahbaz, M. Shaikh, M.A. Shamshirian, A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, Z. Sharif, M. Sharifi, A. Sharifi, H. Sharma, R. Sheikh, A. Shirkoohi, R. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, S. Sitas, F. Sobngwi, E. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Stathopoulou, V. Sufiyan, M.B. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Takahashi, K. Tamtaji, O.R. Tarawneh, M.R. Tassew, S.G. Taymoori, P. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Tesfay, B.E. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, G.A. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topor-Madry, R. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Traini, E. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tsadik, A.G. Ullah, I. Uthman, O.A. Vacante, M. Vaezi, M. Varona Perez, P. Veisani, Y. Vidale, S. Violante, F.S. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wabinga, H. Wachamo, T.M. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Weldegebreal, F. Weldesamuel, G.T. Wijeratne, T. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmieneh, A.B. Workie, H.M. Yadav, R. Yadegar, A. Yadollahpour, A. Yaseri, M. Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V. Yeshaneh, A. Yimam, M.A. Yimer, E.M. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Younis, M.Z. Yousefi, B. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zabeh, E. Zadnik, V. Moghadam, T.Z. Zaidi, Z. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zangeneh, A. Zaki, L. Zendehdel, K. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration
Abstract: Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
Published: 2019

31. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Author: Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. 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Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Momeniha, F. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Mozaffarian, D. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Neal, B. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nichols, E. Nie, J. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nishi, N. Nixon, M.R. Nojomi, M. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Paz Ballesteros, W.C. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pischon, T. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Polkinghorne, K.R. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Rehm, C.D. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rivera, J.A. Roba, K.T. Rodríguez-Ramírez, S. Roever, L. Román, Y. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Rushton, L. Sabanayagam, C. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, D.D. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Sánchez-Pimienta, T.G. Sanders, T. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serre, M.L. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaddick, G. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shamah Levy, T. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharifi, H. Sharma, J. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shin, M.-J. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shupler, M.S. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Somayaji, R. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Starodubov, V.I. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stevanovic, G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Sturua, L. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, H.J. Thomas, M.L. Thomas, N. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. Tillmann, T. To, Q.G. Tobollik, M. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venkateswaran, V. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.H. Weldegebreal, F. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, J.J. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wong, T.Y. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, H. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators
Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Published: 2019

32. Burden of injury along the development spectrum: Associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Haagsma, J.A. James, S.L. Castle, C.D. Dingels, Z.V. Fox, J.T. Hamilton, E.B. Liu, Z. Lucchesi, L.R. Roberts, N.L.S. Sylte, D.O. Adebayo, O.M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, M.T.E. Alahdab, F. Alghnam, S.A. Aljunid, S.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Anjomshoa, M. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Arora, A. Asayesh, H. Assadi, R. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Balalla, S. Banstola, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Benjet, C. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Bijani, A. Borges, G. Borschmann, R. Bose, D. Boufous, S. Brazinova, A. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Catalá-López, F. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christopher, D.J. Crowe, C.S. Dalal, K. Daryani, A. Davitoiu, D.V. Degenhardt, L. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Deribe, K. Dessie, G.A. Deveber, G.A. Dharmaratne, S.D. Doan, L.P. Dolan, K.A. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. El-Khatib, Z. Ellingsen, C.L. El Sayed Zaki, M. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Faro, A. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Gezae, K.E. Gill, T.K. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Haghparast Bidgoli, H. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Híjar, M. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hossain, N. Hostiuc, S. Hu, G. Igumbor, E.U. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Islam, S.M.S. Ivers, R.Q. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahanmehr, N. Jakovljevic, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. Jozwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kabir, A. Kalani, R. Kasaeian, A. Kelbore, A.G. Kengne, A.P. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalid, N. Khan, E.A. Khoja, A.T. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, D. Kisa, A. Koyanagi, A. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, M. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Leasher, J.L. Li, S. Linn, S. Lunevicius, R. MacHado, F.R. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malik, M.A. Malta, D.C. Manda, A.-L. Mansournia, M.A. Massenburg, B.B. Maulik, P.K. Meheretu, H.A.A. Mehndiratta, M.M. Melese, A. Mendoza, W. Mengesha, M.M. Meretoja, T.J. Meretoja, A. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Moazen, B. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammed, S. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Mondello, S. Montero-Zamora, P.A. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Morawska, L. Velásquez, I.M. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Murthy, S. Musa, K.I. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nascimento, B.R. Ndwandwe, D.E. Negoi, I. Nguyen, T.H. Nguyen, S.H. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, H.L.T. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Orpana, H.M. Otstavnov, S.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Park, E.-K. Patton, G.C. Pesudovs, K. Phillips, M.R. Polinder, S. Prakash, S. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahimi, S. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Ramezanzadeh, K. Rawaf, S. Rawaf, D.L. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaeian, S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Sabde, Y.D. Saddik, B. Salamati, P. Salimi, Y. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez Riera, L. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, M. Sawyer, S.M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Schneider, I.J.C. Schwebel, D.C. Seedat, S. Sepanlou, S.G. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sheikh, A. Shen, J. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shiue, I. Silva, J.P. Singh, J.A. Sinha, D.N. Soares Filho, A.M. Soriano, J.B. Soshnikov, S. Soyiri, I.N. Starodubov, V.I. Stein, D.J. Stokes, M.A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunshine, J.E. Sykes, B.L. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabb, K.M. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tessema, G.A. Thakur, J.S. Tran, K.B. Tran, B.X. Tudor Car, L. Uthman, O.A. Uzochukwu, B.S.C. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Violante, F.S. Vlassov, V. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Yadav, P. Yano, Y. Yenesew, M.A. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Younis, M.Z. Yu, C. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zhao, Y. Zodpey, S. Hay, S.I. Lopez, A.D. Mokdad, A.H. Vos, T.
Abstract: Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum. © 2020 Author(s).
Published: 2019

33. Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: James, S.L. Bannick, M.S. Montjoy-Venning, W.C. Lucchesi, L.R. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Hawley, C. Hay, S.I. Jakovljevic, M. Khalil, I. Krohn, K.J. Mokdad, A.H. Naghavi, M. Nichols, E. Reiner, R.C. Smith, M. Feigin, V.L. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. Sunshine, J.E. Yost, M.G. Ellenbogen, R.G. Kalani, R. Morrison, S.D. Crowe, C.S. Massenburg, B.B. Theadom, A. Te Ao, B.J. Balalla, S. Jones, K.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Li, S. Sobhani, S. Hosseini, S.M. Mansournia, M.A. Yaseri, M. Anjomshoa, M. Mousavi, S.M. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Malekzadeh, R. Poustchi, H. Roshandel, G. Sepanlou, S.G. Afarideh, M. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Ganji, M. Kasaeian, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Eskandarieh, S. Sahraian, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Abbasi, N. Farzadfar, F. Irvani, S.N. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Salamati, P. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Mate, K.K.V. Abdulkader, R. Abraha, H.N. Kassa, T.D. Nirayo, Y.L. Weldegwergs, K.G. Gezae, K.E. Zenebe, Z.M. Degefa, M.G. Kahsay, A. Asgedom, S.W. Gebre, A.K. Yimer, E.M. Belachew, A.B. Meles, H. Adsuar, J.C. Zodpey, S. Agrawal, S. Awasthi, A. Kumar, G.A. Ahmadi, A. Najafi, F. Rajati, F. Khazaie, H. Farzaei, M.H. Moradi, M. Rezaei, S. Soofi, M. Siabani, S. Rezaeian, S. Ahmed, M.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Feyissa, G.T. Hussen, M.A. Aichour, A. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Owolabi, M.O. Akseer, N. Bhutta, Z.A. Badawi, A. Alahdab, F. Kassa, G.M. Alebel, A. Wagnew, F.W.S. Belay, Y.A. Leshargie, C.T. Alghnam, S.A. Ali, B.A. Alsharif, U. Temsah, M.-H. Altirkawi, K. Davitoiu, D.V. Hostiuc, S. Beuran, M. Negoi, I. Andrei, C.L. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Levi, M. Ariani, F. Biffino, M. Asefa, N.G. Atique, S. Rahman, M.A. Wijeratne, T. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Rafiei, A. Badali, H. Mohammadi, M. Moosazadeh, M. Daryani, A. Banstola, A. Tran, K.B. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Bedi, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Shabaninejad, H. Behzadifar, Ma. Kabir, A. Yousefifard, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Behzadifar, Me. Bekele, B. Hassen, H.Y. Henok, A. Biadgo, B. Bennett, D.A. Goulart, A.C. Bensenor, I.M. Lotufo, P.A. Wang, Y.P. Yisma, E. Berhane, A. Deribe, K. Yasin, Y.J. Demoz, G.T. Bhalla, A. Bhaumik, S. Bijani, A. Zamani, M. Bililign, N. Kumar, M. Birungi, C. Boufous, S. Brazinova, A. Brown, A.W. Car, M. Majeed, A. Rawaf, S. Rawaf, D.L. Shoman, H. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. El-Khatib, Z. Roy, N. Carvalho, F. Santos, J.V. Fernandes, E. Silva, J.P. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Hoffman, H.J. Catalá-López, F. Chaiah, Y. Temsah, O. Champs, A.P. Chang, J.-C. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christopher, D.J. Cooper, C. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Nguyen, T.H. Doku, D.T. Drake, T.M. Sheikh, A. Soyiri, I.N. Dubey, M. Santric Milicevic, M.M.M. Dubljanin, E. Faro, A. Filip, I. Radfar, A. Fischer, F. Fukumoto, T. Gankpe, F.G. Gopalkrishna, G. Haagsma, J.A. Polinder, S. Khoja, A.T. Pinilla-Monsalve, G.D. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Havmoeller, R. Hegazy, M.I. Hendrie, D. Miller, T.R. Hibstu, D.T. Kassa, Z.Y. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hu, G. Ilesanmi, O.S. Jayaraman, S. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Moazen, B. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. Jozwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kahssay, M. Liben, M.L. Karch, A. Kengne, A.P. Khader, Y.S. Safari, H. Khafaie, M.A. Khalid, N. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Usman, M.S. Siddiqi, T.J. Khang, Y.-H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Yoon, S.-J. Kisa, A. Winkler, A.S. Koyanagi, A. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Lalloo, R. Moradinazar, M. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Laryea, D.O. Latifi, A. Safiri, S. Lunevicius, R. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Manda, A.-L. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehta, V. Melese, A. Memiah, P.T.N. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, G. Shiferaw, M.S. Tekle, M.G. Meretoja, T.J. Meretoja, A. Szoeke, C.E.I. Mestrovich, T. Miazgowski, T. Mini, G.K. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Molokhia, M. Monast, L. Ronfani, L. Mondello, S. Moradi, G. Moschos, M.M. Murthy, S. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Naik, G. Schwebel, D.C. Nangia, V. Nascimento, B.R. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nyasulu, P.S. Renzaho, A.M.N. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Otstavnov, S.S. Dnb, M.P.A. Pakhale, S. Pandey, A.R. Pesudovs, K. Prakash, S. Qorbani, M. Rafay, A. Rahman, M. Stokes, M.A. Shariful Islam, S.M. Rai, R.K. Ram, U. Reis, C. Resnikoff, S. Roever, L. Sunguy, B.F. Ruhago, G.M. Saddik, B. Saldanha, R.D.F. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sartorius, B. Satpathy, M. Schneider, I.J.C. Shaikh, M.A.A. Sharif, M. She, J. Shen, J. Sheth, K.N. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shiue, I. Silveira, D.A. Soares Filho, A.M. Sinha, D.N. Soriano, J.B. Stein, D.J. Sufiyan, M.B. Sykes, B.L. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Topor-Madry, R. Tran, B.X. Tudor Car, L. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Uthman, O.A. Valdez, P.R. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Violante, F.S. Waheed, Y. Werdecker, A. Wyper, G.M.A. Yano, Y. Ye, P. Yip, P. Yonemoto, N. Younis, M.Z. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. GBD 2016 Traumatic Brain Injury Spinal Cord Injury Collaborators
Abstract: Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used causespecific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Findings In 2016, there were 27.08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.30-30.30 million) new cases of TBI and 0.93 million (0.78-1.16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55.50 million (53.40-57.62 million) and of SCI was 27.04 million (24.98-30.15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the agestandardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8.4% (95% UI 7.7 to 9.2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0.2% [-2.1 to 2.7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3.6% (1.8 to 5.5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3.6% [-7.4 to 4.0]). TBI caused 8.1 million (95% UI 6.0-10.4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9.5 million (6.7-12.4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. Interpretation TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. © 2018 The Author(s).
Published: 2019

34. Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Feigin, V.L. Nichols, E. Alam, T. Bannick, M.S. Beghi, E. Blake, N. Culpepper, W.J. Dorsey, E.R. Elbaz, A. Ellenbogen, R.G. Fisher, J.L. Fitzmaurice, C. Giussani, G. Glennie, L. James, S.L. Johnson, C.O. Kassebaum, N.J. Logroscino, G. Marin, B. Mountjoy-Venning, W.C. Nguyen, M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Patel, A.P. Piccininni, M. Roth, G.A. Steiner, T.J. Stovner, L.J. Szoeke, C.E.I. Theadom, A. Vollset, S.E. Wallin, M.T. Wright, C. Zunt, J.R. Abbasi, N. Abd-Allah, F. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adeoye, A.M. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Shahi Salman, R. Alahdab, F. Alene, K.A. Aljunid, S.M. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Anber, N.H. Antonio, C.A.T. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Asayesh, H. Asghar, R.J. Atalay, H.T. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayuk, T.B. Badawi, A. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Baune, B.T. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Beuran, M. Bhattacharyya, K. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Blazes, C.K. Brayne, C. Butt, Z.A. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cantu-Brito, C. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Chatziralli, I. Chiang, P.P.-C. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Cooper, C. Cortesi, P.A. Costa, V.M. Criqui, M.H. Crowe, C.S. Damasceno, A.A.M. Daryani, A. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. Degefa, M.G. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Dharmaratne, S.D. Diaz, D. Dinberu, M.T. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Edvardsson, D. El-Khatib, Z. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Farhadi, F. Faro, A. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fukumoto, T. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gebre, A.K. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelaw, B.K. Geleijnse, J.M. Geremew, D. Gezae, K.E. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Gidey, M.Y. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Haagsma, J.A. Hagos, T.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, S.I. Hegazy, M.I. Heidari, B. Henok, A. Heydarpour, F. Hoang, C.L. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hosseini, S.M. Hu, G. Igumbor, E.U. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Islam, S.M.S. Jakovljevic, M. Javanbakht, M. Jha, R.P. Jobanputra, Y.B. Jonas, J.B. Józwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kalkonde, Y. Kamil, T.A. Kanchan, T. Karami, M. Karch, A. Karimi, N. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kaul, A. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khazaie, H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, A.S. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kokubo, Y. Koyanagi, A. Krishnamurthi, R.V. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, M. Lacey, B. Lafranconi, A. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Liao, Y. Linn, S. Lo, W.D. Lopez, J.C.F. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lucas, R.M. Lunevicius, R. Mackay, M.T. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manafi, N. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. März, W. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mate, K.K.V. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Monasta, L. Mondello, S. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morrison, S.D. Mousavi, S.M. Muhammed, O.S. Muruet, W. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Naderi, M. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, C.T. Nguyen, L.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nyasulu, P.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Onwujekwe, O.E. Oren, E. Owolabi, M.O. A, M.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pan, W.-H. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Patel, S.K. Pereira, D.M. Petzold, M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Polanczyk, G.V. Polinder, S. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Poustchi, H. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rajati, F. Ram, U. Ranta, A. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reinig, N. Reis, C. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Rios González, C.M. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roro, E.M. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Sabbagh, P. Sacco, R.L. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Safari, H. Safari-Faramani, R. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahathevan, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Salamati, P. Salehi Zahabi, S. Salimi, Y. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Santos, I.S. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schwebel, D.C. Seedat, S. Sepanlou, S.G. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shaikh, M.A. Shakir, R.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. She, J. Sheikh, A. Sheth, K.N. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silberberg, D.H. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stokes, M.A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Te Ao, B.J. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Thakur, J.S. Thrift, A.G. Topor-Madry, R. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Valdez, P.R. Vasankari, T.J. Vasanthan, R. Veisani, Y. Venketasubramanian, N. Violante, F.S. Vlassov, V. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weiss, J. Whiteford, H.A. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Xu, G. Yadollahpour, A. Yamada, T. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yatsuya, H. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zare, Z. Zhang, Y. Zodpey, S. Naghavi, M. Murray, C.J.L. Vos, T. GBD 2016 Neurology Collaborators
Abstract: Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Published: 2019

35. Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: Systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Orpana, H.M. Marczak, L.B. Arora, M. Abbasi, N. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, Z. Abraha, H.N. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Ahmadi, A. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akseer, N. Al‐raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alkerwi, A. Allebeck, P. Alvis‐guzman, N. Anber, N.H. Anjomshoa, M. Antonio, C.A.T. Arora, A. Aryal, K.K. Asgedom, S.W. Awasthi, A. Quintanilla, B.P.A. Badali, H. Barker‐collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Bazargan‐hejazi, S. Benjet, C. Bensenor, I.M. Berfeld, N. Beuran, M. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bililign, N. Borges, G. Borschmann, R. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brugha, T. Butt, Z.A. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Malta, D.C. Castañeda‐orjuela, C.A. Catalá‐lópez, F. Ciobanu, L.G. Dachew, B.A. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. Degenhardt, L. Demoz, G.T. Jarlais, D.C.D. Dharmaratne, S.D. Djalalinia, S. Doan, L. Doku, D.T. Dubey, M. El‐khatib, Z. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Faro, A. Farzadfar, F. Fekadu, W. Fernandes, E. Ferrari, A.J. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Foreman, K.J. Fukumoto, T. Gebre, A.K. Grosso, G. Gupta, R. Haagsma, J.A. Bidgoli, H.H. Haj‐mirzaian, A. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Haro, J.M. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, S.I. Heidari, B. Hendrie, D. Rad, E.H. Hosseini, S.M. Hostiuc, S. Irvani, S.S.N. Islam, S.M.S. Jakovljevic, M. James, S. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jozwiak, J.J. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, G.M. Kawakami, N. Kefale, A.T. Kemp, G.R. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.A. Khan, M.S. Khang, Y.-H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kieling, C. Kim, Y.-E. Kisa, A. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kokubo, Y. Koyanagi, A. Krish, V.S. Defo, B.K. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Lamichhane, P. Lang, J.J. Latifi, A. Lee, P.H. Leung, J. Lim, L.-L. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Mahesh, P.A. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Malekzadeh, R. Manda, A.-L. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Martinez‐raga, J. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. McGrath, J.J. Mehrotra, R. Mekonen, T. Mendoza, W. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Mitchell, P.B. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammed, S. Mokdad, A.H. Monasta, L. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi‐lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Velásquez, I.M. Morisaki, N. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mustafa, G. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nixon, M.R. Ofori‐asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Panda‐jonas, S. Parry, C.D.H. Pati, S. Patten, S.B. Patton, G.C. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Plana‐ripoll, O. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi‐movaghar, A. Rahimi‐movaghar, V. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rezaeian, S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Sachdev, P.S. Safari, H. Safiri, S. Salamati, P. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Samy, A.M. Santos, I.S. Santric‐milicevic, M.M. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, M. Schwebel, D.C. Sepanlou, S.G. Shaikh, M.A. Sharif, M. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shiue, I. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Silva, J.P. Singh, J.A. Filho, A.M.S. Sobhani, S. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Tabarés‐seisdedos, R. Tabb, K.M. Tavakkoli, M. Tehrani‐banihashemi, A. Temsah, M.-H. Topor‐madry, R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Ullah, I. Unutzer, J. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Valdez, P.R. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, C. Vlassov, V. Vos, T. Vujcic, I.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Wyper, G.M.A. Yaseri, M. Yimer, E.M. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zamani, M. Murray, C.J.L. Naghavi, M.
Abstract: Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates. © Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited.
Published: 2019

36. Change in albuminuria and subsequent risk of end-stage kidney disease: an individual participant-level consortium meta-analysis of observational studies

Author: Coresh, J., Heerspink, H.J., Sang, Y., Matsushita, K., Arnlov, J., Astor, B.C., Black, C., Brunskill, N.J., Carrero, J.J., Feldman, H.I., Fox, C.S., Inker, L.A., Ishani, A., Ito, S., Jassal, S., Konta, T., Polkinghorne, K., Romundstad, S., Solbu, M.D., Stempniewicz, N., Stengel, B., Tonelli, M., Umesawa, M., Waikar, S.S., Wen, C.P., Wetzels, J.F.M., Woodward, M., Grams, M.E., Kovesdy, C.P., Levey, A.S., Gansevoort, R.T., Coresh, J., Heerspink, H.J., Sang, Y., Matsushita, K., Arnlov, J., Astor, B.C., Black, C., Brunskill, N.J., Carrero, J.J., Feldman, H.I., Fox, C.S., Inker, L.A., Ishani, A., Ito, S., Jassal, S., Konta, T., Polkinghorne, K., Romundstad, S., Solbu, M.D., Stempniewicz, N., Stengel, B., Tonelli, M., Umesawa, M., Waikar, S.S., Wen, C.P., Wetzels, J.F.M., Woodward, M., Grams, M.E., Kovesdy, C.P., Levey, A.S., and Gansevoort, R.T.
Abstract: Item does not contain fulltext, BACKGROUND: Change in albuminuria as a surrogate endpoint for progression of chronic kidney disease is strongly supported by biological plausibility, but empirical evidence to support its validity in epidemiological studies is lacking. We aimed to assess the consistency of the association between change in albuminuria and risk of end-stage kidney disease in a large individual participant-level meta-analysis of observational studies. METHODS: In this meta-analysis, we collected individual-level data from eligible cohorts in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC) with data on serum creatinine and change in albuminuria and more than 50 events on outcomes of interest. Cohort data were eligible if participants were aged 18 years or older, they had a repeated measure of albuminuria during an elapsed period of 8 months to 4 years, subsequent end-stage kidney disease or mortality follow-up data, and the cohort was active during this consortium phase. We extracted participant-level data and quantified percentage change in albuminuria, measured as change in urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) or urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR), during baseline periods of 1, 2, and 3 years. Our primary outcome of interest was development of end-stage kidney disease after a baseline period of 2 years. We defined an end-stage kidney disease event as initiation of kidney replacement therapy. We quantified associations of percentage change in albuminuria with subsequent end-stage kidney disease using Cox regression in each cohort, followed by random-effects meta-analysis. We further adjusted for regression dilution to account for imprecision in the estimation of albuminuria at the participant level. We did multiple subgroup analyses, and also repeated our analyses using participant-level data from 14 clinical trials, including nine clinical trials not in CKD-PC. FINDINGS: Between July, 2015, and June, 2018, we transferred and analysed data from 28 cohorts in the CKD-P
Published: 2019

37. Evaluating Glomerular Filtration Rate Slope as a Surrogate End Point for ESKD in Clinical Trials: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis of Observational Data

Author: Grams, M.E., Sang, Y., Ballew, Shoshana H., Matsushita, K., Astor, B.C., Carrero, J.J., Chang, A.R., Inker, L.A., Kenealy, T., Kovesdy, C.P., Lee, B.J., Levin, A., Naimark, D., Pena, M.J., Schold, J.D., Shalev, V., Wetzels, J.F.M., Woodward, M., Gansevoort, R.T., Levey, A.S., Coresh, J., Grams, M.E., Sang, Y., Ballew, Shoshana H., Matsushita, K., Astor, B.C., Carrero, J.J., Chang, A.R., Inker, L.A., Kenealy, T., Kovesdy, C.P., Lee, B.J., Levin, A., Naimark, D., Pena, M.J., Schold, J.D., Shalev, V., Wetzels, J.F.M., Woodward, M., Gansevoort, R.T., Levey, A.S., and Coresh, J.
Abstract: Item does not contain fulltext, BACKGROUND: Decline in eGFR is a biologically plausible surrogate end point for the progression of CKD in clinical trials. However, it must first be tested to ensure strong associations with clinical outcomes in diverse populations, including patients with higher eGFR. METHODS: To investigate the association between 1-, 2-, and 3-year changes in eGFR (slope) with clinical outcomes over the long term, we conducted a random effects meta-analysis of 3,758,551 participants with baseline eGFR>/=60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) and 122,664 participants with eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) from 14 cohorts followed for an average of 4.2 years. RESULTS: Slower eGFR decline by 0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over 2 years was associated with lower risk of ESKD in participants with baseline eGFR>/=60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.72) and eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (0.71; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.74). The relationship was stronger with 3-year slope. For a rapidly progressing population with predicted 5-year risk of ESKD of 8.3%, an intervention that reduced eGFR decline by 0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over 2 years would reduce the ESKD risk by 1.6%. For a hypothetical low-risk population with a predicted 5-year ESKD risk of 0.58%, the same intervention would reduce the risk by only 0.13%. CONCLUSIONS: Slower decline in eGFR was associated with lower risk of subsequent ESKD, even in participants with eGFR>/=60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), but those with the highest risk would be expected to benefit the most.
Published: 2019

38. Global, regional, and national burden of stroke, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Author: Grosso G., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Reis C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Ricci S., Roberts N.L.S., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Roshandel G., Sabbagh P., Safari H., Safari S., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Salehi Zahabi S., Samy A.M., Santalucia P., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Sawant A.R., Schutte A.E., Sepanlou S.G., Shafieesabet A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Sheikh A., Sheth K.N., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiue I., Siabani S., Sobaih B.H., Sposato L.A., Sutradhar I., Sylaja P.A., Szoeke C.E.I., Te Ao B.J., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Thrift A.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Truelsen T.C., Tsadik A.G., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Valdez P.R., Vasankari T.J., Vasanthan R., Venketasubramanian N., Vosoughi K., Vu G.T., Waheed Y., Weiderpass E., Weldegwergs K.G., Westerman R., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondafrash D.Z., Xu G., Yadollahpour A., Yamada T., Yatsuya H., Yimer E.M., Yonemoto N., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zarghi A., Zhang Y., Zodpey S., Feigin V.L., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., Johnson C.O., Nguyen M., Roth G.A., Nichols E., Alam T., Abate D., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abraha H.N., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Adebayo O.M., Adeoye A.M., Agarwal G., Agrawal S., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Alahdab F., Ali R., Alvis-Guzman N., Anber N.H., Anjomshoa M., Arabloo J., Arauz A., Arnlov J., Arora A., Awasthi A., Banach M., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Basu S., Belachew A.B., Belayneh Y.M., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bhattacharyya K., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bin Sayeed M.S., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Chaiah Y., Chiang P.P.-C., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Cortinovis M., Damasceno A.A.M., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daryani A., Davletov K., De Courten B., De la Cruz-Gongora V., Degefa M.G., Dharmaratne S.D., Diaz D., Dubey M., Duken E.E., Edessa D., Endres M., Faraon E.J.A., Farzadfar F., Fernandes E., Fischer F., Flor L.S., Ganji M., Gebre A.K., Gebremichael T.G., Geta B., Gezae K.E., Gill P.S., Gnedovskaya E.V., Gomez-Dantes H., Goulart A.C., Guo Y., Gupta R., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Hassen H.Y., Hay S.I., Hegazy M.I., Heidari B., Herial N.A., Hosseini M.A., Hostiuc S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jahanmehr N., Javanbakht M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jurisson M., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kalkonde Y., Kamil T.A., Kanchan T., Karch A., Karimi N., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D., Kazemeini H., Kefale A.T., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khubchandani J., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Koyanagi A., Krishnamurthi R.K., Anil Kumar G., Lafranconi A., Lewington S., Li S., Lo W.D., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Mackay M.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehta V., Mengistu G., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohajer B., Mohammad Y., Mohammadoo-Khorasani M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Mokhayeri Y., Moradi G., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Mousavi S.M., Muhammed O.S.S., Muruet W., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Naik G., Nascimento B.R., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nirayo Y.L., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Owolabi M.O., Pandian J.D., Patel S., Perico N., Piradov M.A., Polinder S., Postma M.J., Poustchi H., Prakash V., Qorbani M., Grosso G., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Reis C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Ricci S., Roberts N.L.S., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Roshandel G., Sabbagh P., Safari H., Safari S., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Salehi Zahabi S., Samy A.M., Santalucia P., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Sawant A.R., Schutte A.E., Sepanlou S.G., Shafieesabet A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Sheikh A., Sheth K.N., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiue I., Siabani S., Sobaih B.H., Sposato L.A., Sutradhar I., Sylaja P.A., Szoeke C.E.I., Te Ao B.J., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Thrift A.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Truelsen T.C., Tsadik A.G., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Valdez P.R., Vasankari T.J., Vasanthan R., Venketasubramanian N., Vosoughi K., Vu G.T., Waheed Y., Weiderpass E., Weldegwergs K.G., Westerman R., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondafrash D.Z., Xu G., Yadollahpour A., Yamada T., Yatsuya H., Yimer E.M., Yonemoto N., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zarghi A., Zhang Y., Zodpey S., Feigin V.L., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., Johnson C.O., Nguyen M., Roth G.A., Nichols E., Alam T., Abate D., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abraha H.N., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Adebayo O.M., Adeoye A.M., Agarwal G., Agrawal S., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Alahdab F., Ali R., Alvis-Guzman N., Anber N.H., Anjomshoa M., Arabloo J., Arauz A., Arnlov J., Arora A., Awasthi A., Banach M., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Basu S., Belachew A.B., Belayneh Y.M., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bhattacharyya K., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bin Sayeed M.S., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Chaiah Y., Chiang P.P.-C., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Cortinovis M., Damasceno A.A.M., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daryani A., Davletov K., De Courten B., De la Cruz-Gongora V., Degefa M.G., Dharmaratne S.D., Diaz D., Dubey M., Duken E.E., Edessa D., Endres M., Faraon E.J.A., Farzadfar F., Fernandes E., Fischer F., Flor L.S., Ganji M., Gebre A.K., Gebremichael T.G., Geta B., Gezae K.E., Gill P.S., Gnedovskaya E.V., Gomez-Dantes H., Goulart A.C., Guo Y., Gupta R., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Hassen H.Y., Hay S.I., Hegazy M.I., Heidari B., Herial N.A., Hosseini M.A., Hostiuc S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jahanmehr N., Javanbakht M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jurisson M., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kalkonde Y., Kamil T.A., Kanchan T., Karch A., Karimi N., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D., Kazemeini H., Kefale A.T., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khubchandani J., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Koyanagi A., Krishnamurthi R.K., Anil Kumar G., Lafranconi A., Lewington S., Li S., Lo W.D., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Mackay M.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehta V., Mengistu G., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohajer B., Mohammad Y., Mohammadoo-Khorasani M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Mokhayeri Y., Moradi G., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Mousavi S.M., Muhammed O.S.S., Muruet W., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Naik G., Nascimento B.R., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nirayo Y.L., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Owolabi M.O., Pandian J.D., Patel S., Perico N., Piradov M.A., Polinder S., Postma M.J., Poustchi H., Prakash V., and Qorbani M.
Abstract: Background: Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016. Method(s): We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles. Finding(s): In 2016, there were 5.5 million (95% UI 5.3 to 5.7) deaths and 116.4 million (111.4 to 121.4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36.2% (-39.3 to -33.6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34.2% (-37.2 to -31.5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13.7 million (12.7 to 14.7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8.1% (-10.7 to -5.5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80.1 million (74.1
Published: 2019

39. Burden of injury along the development spectrum: Associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Haagsma, J.A. (Juanita), James, S.L. (Spencer L.), Castle, C.D. (Chris D.), Dingels, Z.V. (Zachary V.), Fox, J.T. (Jack T.), Hamilton, E.B. (Erin B.), Liu, Z. (Zichen), Lucchesi, L.R. (Lydia R.), Roberts, N.L.S. (Nicholas L.S.), Sylte, D.O. (Dillon O.), Adebayo, O.M. (Oladimeji M.), Ahmadi, A. (Alireza), Ahmed, M.B. (Muktar Beshir), Aichour, M.T.E. (Miloud Taki Eddine), Alahdab, F. (Fares), Alghnam, S.A. (Suliman A.), Aljunid, S.M. (Syed Mohamed), Al-Raddadi, R.M. (Rajaa M.), Alsharif, U. (Ubai), Altirkawi, K. (Khalid), Anjomshoa, M. (Mina), Antonio, C.A.T. (Carl Abelardo T), Appiah, S.C.Y. (Seth Christopher Yaw), Aremu, O. (Olatunde), Arora, A. (Amit), Asayesh, H. (Hamid), Assadi, R. (Reza), Awasthi, A. (Ashish), Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. (Beatriz Paulina), Balalla, S. (Shivanthi), Banstola, A. (Amrit), Barker-Collo, S.L. (Suzanne Lyn), Bärnighausen, T.W. (Till Winfried), Bazargan-Hejazi, S. (Shahrzad), Bedi, N. (Neeraj), Behzadifar, M. (Masoud), Behzadifar, M. (Meysam), Benjet, C. (Corina), Bennett, D. (Derrick), Bensenor, I.M. (Isabela M.), Bhaumik, S. (Soumyadeep), Bhutta, Z.A. (Zulfiqar A), Bijani, A. (Ali), Borges, G. (Guilherme), Borschmann, R. (Rohan), Bose, D. (Dipan), Boufous, S. (Soufiane), Brazinova, A. (Alexandra), Campuzano Rincon, J.C. (Julio Cesar), Cárdenas, R. (Rosario), Carrero, J.J. (Juan J.), Carvalho, F. (Félix), Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. (Carlos A), Catalá-López, F. (Ferrán), Choi, J.-Y.J. (Jee-Young J.), Christopher, D.J. (Devasahayam J.), Crowe, C.S. (Christopher Stephen), Dalal, K. (Koustuv), Daryani, A. (Ahmad), Davitoiu, D.V. (Dragos Virgil), Degenhardt, F., Leo, D. (Diego) de, De Neve, J.-W. (Jan-Walter), Deribe, K. (Kebede), Dessie, G.A. (Getenet Ayalew), Deveber, G.A. (Gabrielle Aline), Dharmaratne, S.D. (Samath D), Doan, L.P. (Linh Phuong), Dolan, K.A. (Kate A.), Driscoll, T.R. (Tim Robert), Dubey, M. (Manisha), El-Khatib, Z. (Ziad), Ellingsen, C.L. (Christian Lycke), El Sayed Zaki, M. (Maysaa), Endries, A.Y. (Aman Yesuf), Eskandarieh, S. (Sharareh), Faro, A. (Andre), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Fernandes, E. (Eduarda), Filip, I. (Irina), Fischer, F. (Florian), Franklin, R. (Richard), Fukumoto, T. (Takeshi), Gezae, K.E. (Kebede Embaye), Gill, T.K. (Tiffany K.), Goulart, A.C. (Alessandra C.), Grada, A. (Ayman), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Gupta, R. (Rahul), Haghparast Bidgoli, H. (Hassan), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arvin), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arya), Hamadeh, R.R. (Randah R.), Hamidi, S. (Samer), Haro, J.M. (Josep Maria), Hassankhani, H. (Hadi), Hassen, H.Y. (Hamid Yimam), Havmoeller, R. (Rasmus), Hendrie, D. (Delia), Henok, A. (Andualem), Hijar, M. (Martha), Hole, M.K. (Michael K.), Homaie Rad, E. (Enayatollah), Hossain, N. (Naznin), Hostiuc, S. (Sorin), Hu, G. (Guoqing), Igumbor, E.U. (Ehimario U.), Ilesanmi, O.S. (Olayinka Stephen), Irvani, S.S.N. (Seyed Sina Naghibi), Islam, S.M.S. (Sheikh Mohammed Shariful), Ivers, R.Q. (Rebecca Q.), Jacobsen, K.H. (Kathryn H), Jahanmehr, N. (Nader), Jakovljevic, M. (Mihajlo), Jayatilleke, A.U. (Achala Upendra), Jha, R.P. (Ravi Prakash), Jonas, J.B., Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. (Zahra), Jozwiak, J.J. (Jacek Jerzy), Jürisson, M. (Mikk), Kabir, A. (Ali), Kalani, R. (Rizwan), Kasaeian, A. (Amir), Kelbore, A.G. (Abraham Getachew), Kengne, A.P. (Andre Pascal), Khader, Y.S. (Yousef Saleh), Khafaie, M.A. (Morteza Abdullatif), Khalid, N. (Nauman), Khan, E.A. (Ejaz Ahmad), Khoja, A.T. (Abdullah T.), Kiadaliri, A.A. (Aliasghar A.), Kim, Y.-E. (Young-Eun), Kim, D. (Daniel), Kisa, A. (Adnan), Koyanagi, A. (Ai), Kuate Defo, B. (Barthelemy), Kucuk Bicer, B. (Burcu), Kumar, M. (Manasi), Lalloo, R. (Ratilal), Lam, H. (Hilton), Lami, F.H. (Faris Hasan), Lansingh, V.C. (Van C.), Leasher, J.L. (Janet L.), Li, S. (Shanshan), Linn, S. (Shai), Lunevicius, R. (Raimundas), MacHado, F.R. (Flavia R.), Magdy Abd El Razek, H. (Hassan), Magdy Abd El Razek, M. (Muhammed), Mahotra, N.B. (Narayan Bahadur), Majdan, M. (Marek), Majeed, A. (Azeem), Malekzadeh, R. (Reza), Malik, M.A. (Manzoor Ahmad), Malta, D.C. (Deborah Carvalho), Manda, A.-L. (Ana-Laura), Mansournia, M.A. (Mohammad Ali), Massenburg, B.B. (Benjamin Ballard), Maulik, P.K. (Pallab K.), Meheretu, H.A.A. (Hailemariam Abiy Alemu), Mehndiratta, M.M. (Man Mohan), Melese, A. (Addisu), Mendoza, W. (Walter), Mengesha, M.M. (Melkamu Merid), Meretoja, T.J. (Tuomo J.), Meretoja, A. (Atte), Mestrovic, T. (Tomislav), Miazgowski, T. (T.), Miller, T.R. (Ted R), Mini, G.K. (G. K.), Mirrakhimov, E.M. (Erkin M.), Moazen, B. (Babak), Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. (Naser), Mohammadibakhsh, R. (Roghayeh), Mohammed, S. (Shafiu), Molokhia, M. (Mariam), Monasta, L. (Lorenzo), Mondello, S. (Stefania), Montero-Zamora, P.A. (Pablo A.), Moodley, Y. (Yoshan), Moosazadeh, M. (Mahmood), Moradi, G. (Ghobad), Moradi-Lakeh, M. (Maziar), Morawska, L. (Lidia), Velásquez, I.M. (Ilais Moreno), Morrison, S.D. (Shane Douglas), Moschos, M.M. (Marilita M.), Mousavi, S.M. (Seyyed Meysam), Murthy, S. (Srinivas), Musa, K.I. (Kamarul Imran), Naik, G. (Gurudatta), Najafi, F. (Farid), Nangia, V. (Vinay), Nascimento, J., Ndwandwe, D.E. (Duduzile Edith), Negoi, I. (Ionut), Nguyen, T.H. (Trang Huyen), Nguyen, S.H. (Son Hoang), Nguyen, L.H. (Long Hoang), Nguyen, H.L.T. (Huong Lan Thi), Ningrum, D.N.A. (Dina Nur Anggraini), Nirayo, Y.L. (Yirga Legesse), Ofori-Asenso, R. (Richard), Ogbo, F.A. (Felix Akpojene), Oh, I.-H. (In-Hwan), Oladimeji, O. (Olanrewaju), Olagunju, A.T. (Andrew T.), Olagunju, T.O. (Tinuke O.), Olivares, P.R. (Pedro), Orpana, H.M. (Heather M.), Otstavnov, S.S. (Stanislav S.), Mahesh, P.A. (P. A.), Pakhale, S. (Smita), Park, E.-K. (Eun-Kee), Patton, G.C. (George C.), Pesudovs, K. (Konrad), Phillips, M.R. (Michael R.), Polinder, S. (Suzanne), Prakash, S. (Swayam), Radfar, A. (Amir), Rafay, A. (Anwar), Rafiei, A. (Alireza), Rahimi, S. (Siavash), Rahimi-Movaghar, V. (Vafa), Rahman, M.A. (Muhammad Aziz), Rai, R.K. (Rajesh Kumar), Ramezanzadeh, K. (Kiana), Rawaf, S. (Salman), Rawaf, D.L. (David Laith), Renzaho, A.M.N. (Andre M.N.), Resnikoff, S. (Serge), Rezaeian, S. (Shahab), Roever, L. (Leonardo), Ronfani, L. (Luca), Roshandel, G. (Gholamreza), Sabde, Y.D. (Yogesh Damodar), Saddik, B. (Basema), Salamati, P. (Payman), Salimi, Y. (Yahya), Salz, I. (Inbal), Samy, A.M. (Abdallah M.), Sanabria, J. (Juan), Sanchez Riera, L. (Lidia), Santric Milicevic, M.M. (Milena M.), Satpathy, M. (Maheswar), Sawhney, M. (Monika), Sawyer, S.M. (Susan M.), Saxena, S. (Sonia), Saylan, M. (Mete), Schneider, I.J.C. (Ione J.C.), Schwebel, D.C. (David C), Seedat, S. (Soraya), Sepanlou, S.G. (Sadaf G), Shaikh, M.A. (Masood Ali), Shams-Beyranvand, M. (Mehran), Shamsizadeh, M. (Morteza), Sharif-Alhoseini, M. (Mahdi), Sheikh, A. (Aziz), Shen, J. (Jiabin), Shigematsu, M. (Mika), Shiri, R. (Rahman), Shiue, I. (Ivy), Silva, J.P. (Joaõ Pedro), Singh, J.A. (Jasvinder), Sinha, D.N. (Dhirendra Narain), Soares Filho, A.M. (Adauto Martins), Soriano, J.B. (Joan B.), Soshnikov, S. (Sergey), Soyiri, I.N. (Ireneous N.), Starodubov, V.I. (Vladimir I.), Stein, D.J. (Dan J.), Stokes, M.A. (Mark A.), Sufiyan, M.B. (Mu'Awiyyah Babale), Sunshine, J.E. (Jacob E.), Sykes, B.L. (Bryan L.), Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. (Rafael), Tabb, K.M. (Karen M), Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. (Arash), Tessema, G.A. (Gizachew Assefa), Thakur, J.S. (Jarnail Singh), Tran, K.B. (Khanh Bao), Tran, B.X. (Bach Xuan), Tudor Car, L. (Lorainne), Uthman, O.A. (Olalekan A.), Uzochukwu, B.S.C. (Benjamin S. Chudi), Valdez, P.R. (Pascual R.), Varavikova, E. (Elena), Vasconcelos, A.M.N. (Ana Maria Nogales), Venketasubramanian, N. (Narayanaswamy), Violante, F.S. (Francesco S), Vlassov, V.V. (Vasiliy Victorovich), Waheed, Y. (Yasir), Wang, Y.-P. (Yuan-Pang), Wijeratne, T. (Tissa), Winkler, A.S. (Andrea Sylvia), Yadav, P. (Priyanka), Yano, Y. (Yuichiro), Yenesew, M.A. (Muluken Azage), Yip, P. (Paul), Yisma, E. (Engida), Yonemoto, N. (Naohiro), Younis, M.Z. (Mustafa Z.), Yu, C. (Chuanhua), Zafar, S. (Shamsa), Zaidi, Z. (Zoubida), Zaman, S.B. (Sojib Bin), Zamani, M. (Mohammad), Zhao, Y. (Yong), Zodpey, S. (Sanjay), Hay, S.I. (Simon), Lopez, A.D. (Alan D), Mokdad, A.H. (Ali H.), Vos, T. (Theo), Haagsma, J.A. (Juanita), James, S.L. (Spencer L.), Castle, C.D. (Chris D.), Dingels, Z.V. (Zachary V.), Fox, J.T. (Jack T.), Hamilton, E.B. (Erin B.), Liu, Z. (Zichen), Lucchesi, L.R. (Lydia R.), Roberts, N.L.S. (Nicholas L.S.), Sylte, D.O. (Dillon O.), Adebayo, O.M. (Oladimeji M.), Ahmadi, A. (Alireza), Ahmed, M.B. (Muktar Beshir), Aichour, M.T.E. (Miloud Taki Eddine), Alahdab, F. (Fares), Alghnam, S.A. (Suliman A.), Aljunid, S.M. (Syed Mohamed), Al-Raddadi, R.M. (Rajaa M.), Alsharif, U. (Ubai), Altirkawi, K. (Khalid), Anjomshoa, M. (Mina), Antonio, C.A.T. (Carl Abelardo T), Appiah, S.C.Y. (Seth Christopher Yaw), Aremu, O. (Olatunde), Arora, A. (Amit), Asayesh, H. (Hamid), Assadi, R. (Reza), Awasthi, A. (Ashish), Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. (Beatriz Paulina), Balalla, S. (Shivanthi), Banstola, A. (Amrit), Barker-Collo, S.L. (Suzanne Lyn), Bärnighausen, T.W. (Till Winfried), Bazargan-Hejazi, S. (Shahrzad), Bedi, N. (Neeraj), Behzadifar, M. (Masoud), Behzadifar, M. (Meysam), Benjet, C. (Corina), Bennett, D. (Derrick), Bensenor, I.M. (Isabela M.), Bhaumik, S. (Soumyadeep), Bhutta, Z.A. (Zulfiqar A), Bijani, A. (Ali), Borges, G. (Guilherme), Borschmann, R. (Rohan), Bose, D. (Dipan), Boufous, S. (Soufiane), Brazinova, A. (Alexandra), Campuzano Rincon, J.C. (Julio Cesar), Cárdenas, R. (Rosario), Carrero, J.J. (Juan J.), Carvalho, F. (Félix), Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. (Carlos A), Catalá-López, F. (Ferrán), Choi, J.-Y.J. (Jee-Young J.), Christopher, D.J. (Devasahayam J.), Crowe, C.S. (Christopher Stephen), Dalal, K. (Koustuv), Daryani, A. (Ahmad), Davitoiu, D.V. (Dragos Virgil), Degenhardt, F., Leo, D. (Diego) de, De Neve, J.-W. (Jan-Walter), Deribe, K. (Kebede), Dessie, G.A. (Getenet Ayalew), Deveber, G.A. (Gabrielle Aline), Dharmaratne, S.D. (Samath D), Doan, L.P. (Linh Phuong), Dolan, K.A. (Kate A.), Driscoll, T.R. (Tim Robert), Dubey, M. (Manisha), El-Khatib, Z. (Ziad), Ellingsen, C.L. (Christian Lycke), El Sayed Zaki, M. (Maysaa), Endries, A.Y. (Aman Yesuf), Eskandarieh, S. (Sharareh), Faro, A. (Andre), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Fernandes, E. (Eduarda), Filip, I. (Irina), Fischer, F. (Florian), Franklin, R. (Richard), Fukumoto, T. (Takeshi), Gezae, K.E. (Kebede Embaye), Gill, T.K. (Tiffany K.), Goulart, A.C. (Alessandra C.), Grada, A. (Ayman), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Gupta, R. (Rahul), Haghparast Bidgoli, H. (Hassan), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arvin), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arya), Hamadeh, R.R. (Randah R.), Hamidi, S. (Samer), Haro, J.M. (Josep Maria), Hassankhani, H. (Hadi), Hassen, H.Y. (Hamid Yimam), Havmoeller, R. (Rasmus), Hendrie, D. (Delia), Henok, A. (Andualem), Hijar, M. (Martha), Hole, M.K. (Michael K.), Homaie Rad, E. (Enayatollah), Hossain, N. (Naznin), Hostiuc, S. (Sorin), Hu, G. (Guoqing), Igumbor, E.U. (Ehimario U.), Ilesanmi, O.S. (Olayinka Stephen), Irvani, S.S.N. (Seyed Sina Naghibi), Islam, S.M.S. (Sheikh Mohammed Shariful), Ivers, R.Q. (Rebecca Q.), Jacobsen, K.H. (Kathryn H), Jahanmehr, N. (Nader), Jakovljevic, M. (Mihajlo), Jayatilleke, A.U. (Achala Upendra), Jha, R.P. (Ravi Prakash), Jonas, J.B., Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. (Zahra), Jozwiak, J.J. (Jacek Jerzy), Jürisson, M. (Mikk), Kabir, A. (Ali), Kalani, R. (Rizwan), Kasaeian, A. (Amir), Kelbore, A.G. (Abraham Getachew), Kengne, A.P. (Andre Pascal), Khader, Y.S. (Yousef Saleh), Khafaie, M.A. (Morteza Abdullatif), Khalid, N. (Nauman), Khan, E.A. (Ejaz Ahmad), Khoja, A.T. (Abdullah T.), Kiadaliri, A.A. (Aliasghar A.), Kim, Y.-E. (Young-Eun), Kim, D. (Daniel), Kisa, A. (Adnan), Koyanagi, A. (Ai), Kuate Defo, B. (Barthelemy), Kucuk Bicer, B. (Burcu), Kumar, M. (Manasi), Lalloo, R. (Ratilal), Lam, H. (Hilton), Lami, F.H. (Faris Hasan), Lansingh, V.C. (Van C.), Leasher, J.L. (Janet L.), Li, S. (Shanshan), Linn, S. (Shai), Lunevicius, R. (Raimundas), MacHado, F.R. (Flavia R.), Magdy Abd El Razek, H. (Hassan), Magdy Abd El Razek, M. (Muhammed), Mahotra, N.B. (Narayan Bahadur), Majdan, M. (Marek), Majeed, A. (Azeem), Malekzadeh, R. (Reza), Malik, M.A. (Manzoor Ahmad), Malta, D.C. (Deborah Carvalho), Manda, A.-L. (Ana-Laura), Mansournia, M.A. (Mohammad Ali), Massenburg, B.B. (Benjamin Ballard), Maulik, P.K. (Pallab K.), Meheretu, H.A.A. (Hailemariam Abiy Alemu), Mehndiratta, M.M. (Man Mohan), Melese, A. (Addisu), Mendoza, W. (Walter), Mengesha, M.M. (Melkamu Merid), Meretoja, T.J. (Tuomo J.), Meretoja, A. (Atte), Mestrovic, T. (Tomislav), Miazgowski, T. (T.), Miller, T.R. (Ted R), Mini, G.K. (G. K.), Mirrakhimov, E.M. (Erkin M.), Moazen, B. (Babak), Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. (Naser), Mohammadibakhsh, R. (Roghayeh), Mohammed, S. (Shafiu), Molokhia, M. (Mariam), Monasta, L. (Lorenzo), Mondello, S. (Stefania), Montero-Zamora, P.A. (Pablo A.), Moodley, Y. (Yoshan), Moosazadeh, M. (Mahmood), Moradi, G. (Ghobad), Moradi-Lakeh, M. (Maziar), Morawska, L. (Lidia), Velásquez, I.M. (Ilais Moreno), Morrison, S.D. (Shane Douglas), Moschos, M.M. (Marilita M.), Mousavi, S.M. (Seyyed Meysam), Murthy, S. (Srinivas), Musa, K.I. (Kamarul Imran), Naik, G. (Gurudatta), Najafi, F. (Farid), Nangia, V. (Vinay), Nascimento, J., Ndwandwe, D.E. (Duduzile Edith), Negoi, I. (Ionut), Nguyen, T.H. (Trang Huyen), Nguyen, S.H. (Son Hoang), Nguyen, L.H. (Long Hoang), Nguyen, H.L.T. (Huong Lan Thi), Ningrum, D.N.A. (Dina Nur Anggraini), Nirayo, Y.L. (Yirga Legesse), Ofori-Asenso, R. (Richard), Ogbo, F.A. (Felix Akpojene), Oh, I.-H. (In-Hwan), Oladimeji, O. (Olanrewaju), Olagunju, A.T. (Andrew T.), Olagunju, T.O. (Tinuke O.), Olivares, P.R. (Pedro), Orpana, H.M. (Heather M.), Otstavnov, S.S. (Stanislav S.), Mahesh, P.A. (P. A.), Pakhale, S. (Smita), Park, E.-K. (Eun-Kee), Patton, G.C. (George C.), Pesudovs, K. (Konrad), Phillips, M.R. (Michael R.), Polinder, S. (Suzanne), Prakash, S. (Swayam), Radfar, A. (Amir), Rafay, A. (Anwar), Rafiei, A. (Alireza), Rahimi, S. (Siavash), Rahimi-Movaghar, V. (Vafa), Rahman, M.A. (Muhammad Aziz), Rai, R.K. (Rajesh Kumar), Ramezanzadeh, K. (Kiana), Rawaf, S. (Salman), Rawaf, D.L. (David Laith), Renzaho, A.M.N. (Andre M.N.), Resnikoff, S. (Serge), Rezaeian, S. (Shahab), Roever, L. (Leonardo), Ronfani, L. (Luca), Roshandel, G. (Gholamreza), Sabde, Y.D. (Yogesh Damodar), Saddik, B. (Basema), Salamati, P. (Payman), Salimi, Y. (Yahya), Salz, I. (Inbal), Samy, A.M. (Abdallah M.), Sanabria, J. (Juan), Sanchez Riera, L. (Lidia), Santric Milicevic, M.M. (Milena M.), Satpathy, M. (Maheswar), Sawhney, M. (Monika), Sawyer, S.M. (Susan M.), Saxena, S. (Sonia), Saylan, M. (Mete), Schneider, I.J.C. (Ione J.C.), Schwebel, D.C. (David C), Seedat, S. (Soraya), Sepanlou, S.G. (Sadaf G), Shaikh, M.A. (Masood Ali), Shams-Beyranvand, M. (Mehran), Shamsizadeh, M. (Morteza), Sharif-Alhoseini, M. (Mahdi), Sheikh, A. (Aziz), Shen, J. (Jiabin), Shigematsu, M. (Mika), Shiri, R. (Rahman), Shiue, I. (Ivy), Silva, J.P. (Joaõ Pedro), Singh, J.A. (Jasvinder), Sinha, D.N. (Dhirendra Narain), Soares Filho, A.M. (Adauto Martins), Soriano, J.B. (Joan B.), Soshnikov, S. (Sergey), Soyiri, I.N. (Ireneous N.), Starodubov, V.I. (Vladimir I.), Stein, D.J. (Dan J.), Stokes, M.A. (Mark A.), Sufiyan, M.B. (Mu'Awiyyah Babale), Sunshine, J.E. (Jacob E.), Sykes, B.L. (Bryan L.), Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. (Rafael), Tabb, K.M. (Karen M), Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. (Arash), Tessema, G.A. (Gizachew Assefa), Thakur, J.S. (Jarnail Singh), Tran, K.B. (Khanh Bao), Tran, B.X. (Bach Xuan), Tudor Car, L. (Lorainne), Uthman, O.A. (Olalekan A.), Uzochukwu, B.S.C. (Benjamin S. Chudi), Valdez, P.R. (Pascual R.), Varavikova, E. (Elena), Vasconcelos, A.M.N. (Ana Maria Nogales), Venketasubramanian, N. (Narayanaswamy), Violante, F.S. (Francesco S), Vlassov, V.V. (Vasiliy Victorovich), Waheed, Y. (Yasir), Wang, Y.-P. (Yuan-Pang), Wijeratne, T. (Tissa), Winkler, A.S. (Andrea Sylvia), Yadav, P. (Priyanka), Yano, Y. (Yuichiro), Yenesew, M.A. (Muluken Azage), Yip, P. (Paul), Yisma, E. (Engida), Yonemoto, N. (Naohiro), Younis, M.Z. (Mustafa Z.), Yu, C. (Chuanhua), Zafar, S. (Shamsa), Zaidi, Z. (Zoubida), Zaman, S.B. (Sojib Bin), Zamani, M. (Mohammad), Zhao, Y. (Yong), Zodpey, S. (Sanjay), Hay, S.I. (Simon), Lopez, A.D. (Alan D), Mokdad, A.H. (Ali H.), and Vos, T. (Theo)
Abstract: Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
Published: 2019
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40. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

Author: GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators Roth, G.A. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Aremu, O. Arnlov, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Bacha, U. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Banach, M. Banerjee, K. Bannick, M.S. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Barnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bassat, Q. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bejot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Blacker, B.F. Basara, B.B. Borschmann, R. Bosetti, C. Bozorgmehr, K. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cardenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castle, C.D. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Cowie, B.C. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De La Hoz, F.P. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Doshi, P.P. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Ellingsen, C.L. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Furst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Gibney, K.B. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giroud, M. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gomez-Dantes, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutierrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Idrisov, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, N. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jenkins, K.J. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kazi, D.S. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimaki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lam, J.O. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Lonsdale, C. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. MacLachlan, J.H. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marczak, L. Marks, A. Marks, G.B. Martinez, G. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Marz, W. Marzan, M.B. Masci, J.R. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matzopoulos, R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velasquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K.S. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ortiz, J.R. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Ozdemir, R. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paulson, K.R. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Piel, F.B. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Polinder, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Pujar, A. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Qorbani, M. Quintana, H. Quistberg, D.A. Rade, K.W. Anwar Rafay, A.R. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rao, P.C. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Razo-Garcia, C. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Jose, B.P.S. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suarez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Servan-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silberberg, D.H. Santos Silva, D.A. Silva, J.P. Da Silva, N.T. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, P.K. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Tessema, G.A. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbes, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Murat Tuzcu, E. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wallin, M.T. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yakob, B. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yentur, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zuhlke, L.J. Naghavi, M. Murray, C.J.L.
Abstract: GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
Published: 2018

41. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Dicker, D. Nguyen, G. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abdurahman, A.A. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.L.C.B. Ahmed, S. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. 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Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsilimparis, N. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Vidavalur, R. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.W.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wondemagegn, S.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yadav, R. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. YentÃ¼r, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. York, H.W. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zachariah, G. Zadnik, V. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeeb, H. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, K. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lopez, A.D. Gakidou, E. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators
Abstract: Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).
Published: 2018

42. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Lozano, R. Fullman, N. Abate, D. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, N.D. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M. Abyu, G.Y. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aghayan, S.A. Agius, D. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Akalu, T.Y. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alam, T. Albujeer, A. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Alhabib, S. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Almasi, A. Al-Maskari, F. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amenu, K. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Asghar, R.J. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Quintanilla, B.P.A. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azarpazhooh, M.R. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banerjee, A. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Barthelemy, C.M. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Battista, R.J. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Benzian, H. Berhane, A. Berhe, A.K. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhansali, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Sayeed, M.S.B. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bitew, H. Bizuneh, H. Bjertness, E. Bobasa, E.M. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Bozorgmehr, K. Bragazzi, N.L. Brainin, M. Brant, L.C. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Bukhman, G. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Rincon, J.C.C. Cano, J. Car, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Causey, K. Çavlin, A. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chalek, J. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Claßen, T.K.D. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cornaby, L. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. Dayama, A. De Courten, B. De Leo, D. Neve, J.W.D. De Steur, H. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Douwes-Schultz, D. Driscoll, T.R. Duan, L. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. El Bcheraoui, C. Eldrenkamp, E. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Estep, K. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Fanzo, J. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Farinha, C.S.E.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Farzam, H. Fazaeli, A.A. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fekadu, W. Feldman, R. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fukutaki, K. Fuller, J.E. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gallus, S. Gankpe, F.G. Gansevoort, R.T. Garcia, A.C. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebre, T. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Griswold, M.G. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guillemin, F. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Ha, G.H. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Bidgoli, H.H. Hagos, T.B. Haile, M.T. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, B. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Híjar, M. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, D.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horita, N. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Hughes, C. Huynh, C.K. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Ivers, R.Q. Izadi, N. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. Jamal, A.A. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Matin, B.K. Karanikolos, M. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Karyani, A.K. Kazi, D.S. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaeipour, Z. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiarie, H.W. Kibret, G.D. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lagat, A.K. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lamichhane, P. Lan, Q. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Larsson, A.O. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Lebedev, G. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, J.B. Lee, P.H. Leever, A.T. Leigh, J. Leinsalu, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, X. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lucchesi, L.R. Lyons, R.A. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Mangalam, S. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C.C. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Milne, G.J. Mini, G.K. Minnig, S.P. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Moazen, B. Moghadamnia, A.A. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, M.B.V. Mohan, V. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-da-Costa, J. Morisaki, N. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mountjoy-Venning, W.C. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Mullany, E.C. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Murthy, G.V.S. Murthy, S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. 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Pakhare, A.P. Pan, W.-H. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Papantoniou, N. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pervaiz, A. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pletcher, M. Pond, C.D. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Pyakurel, M. Qorbani, M. Quansah, R. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.S. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Rana, S.M. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Razo-García, C. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reis, C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Milicevic, M.M.S. Jose, B.P.S. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M.B. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. Sharma, S.K. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shey, M.S. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shields, C. Shifa, G.T. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shirude, S. Shishani, K. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Da Silva, N.T. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, O.P. Singh, P.K. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Sliwa, K. Smith, A.E. Smith, M. Filho, A.M.S. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soljak, M. Soofi, M. Soosaraei, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soshnikov, S. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, R.G. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stewart, L.G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Straif, K. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tamirat, K.S. Tandon, N. Tanser, F.C. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Teshome, D.F. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, L.A. Thomas, N. Thomson, A.J. Thrift, A.G. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tran, T.T. Tripathy, S.P. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Tsadik, A.G. Car, L.T. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Vidavalur, R. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollmer, S. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whisnant, J.L. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolde, H.F. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Xu, R. Yadollahpour, A. Jabbari, S.H.Y. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zegeye, D.T. Zegeye, E.A. Zeleke, A.J. Zendehdel, K. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lim, S.S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators
Abstract: Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Published: 2018

43. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Murray, C.J.L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Kulikoff, X.R. Srinivasan, V. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdoli, N. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Abejie, A.N. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abreu, D.M.X. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Almasi, A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Arian, N. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Atey, T.M.M. Atique, S. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Biswas, T. Bizuneh, H. Bleyer, A. Basara, B.B. Bosetti, C. Boufous, S. Brady, O.J. Bragazzi, N.L. Brainin, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Brewer, J.D. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Burstein, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Çavlin, A. Cerin, E. Chalek, J. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christopher, D.J. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Collado-Mateo, D. Constantin, M.-M. Conti, S. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Cukelj, P. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dicker, D. Ding, E.L. Dinsa, G.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dolan, K.A. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Ermakov, S.P. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Farag, T. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. SáFarinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fay, K.A. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Feizy, F. Fenny, A.P. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Fürst, T. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Gakidou, E. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia, G.M. Garcia-Gordillo, M.Á. Gebre, A.K. Gebre, T. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gelano, T.F. Gelaw, Y.A. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Gething, P. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goli, S. Gomez, R.S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guo, J. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. 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Manda, A.-L. Mangalam, S. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Mason-Jones, A.J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehrzadi, S. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengesha, M.M. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mokdad, A.H. Mola, G.D. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Mori, R. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Murphy, T.B. Muller, K. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, P. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyandwi, A. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Ortiz, A. Osgood-Zimmerman, A. Ota, E. Otieno, B.A. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. 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Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salahshoor, M. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saldanha, R.D.F. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Saroshe, S. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Schaeffner, E. Schelonka, K. Schneider, I.J.C. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shakir, R.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Starodubov, V.I. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Strong, M. Subart, M.L. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabb, K.M. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thomson, A.J. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Toyoshima, H. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsegay, A. Tsilimparis, N. Car, L.T. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yamada, T. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, X. Zhao, X.-J. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Lopez, A.D. Lim, S.S. GBD 2017 Population Fertility Collaborators
Abstract: Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Published: 2018

44. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatt, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bobasa, E.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. 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Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Echko, M.M. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. Ehrlich, J.R. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endalifer, M.L. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farzadfar, F. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. 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Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Kotsakis, G.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Bicer, B.K. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Langan, S.M. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Looker, K.J. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantilla Herrera, A.M. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massano, J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montanez, J.C. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velásquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Park, J. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Pasdar, Y. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. 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Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Nino, M.D. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokoohinia, Y. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. 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Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Williams, H.C. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zar, H.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zipkin, B. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 DALYs HALE Collaborators
Abstract: Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Published: 2018

45. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: James, S.L. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alouani, M.M.L. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Arauz, A. Aremu, O. Ariani, F. Armoon, B. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asghar, R.J. Ataro, Z. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bensenor, I.M. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Blacker, B.F. Blyth, F.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brainin, M. Brant, L.C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Briggs, A.M. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Cano, J. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, A.R. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Coresh, J. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cross, M. Crump, J.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Davey, G. Davis, A.C. Davitoiu, D.V. De Courten, B. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dinberu, M.T. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Doan, L. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dorsey, E.R. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Echko, M.M. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Ehrlich, J.R. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhim, H. Fallah Omrani, V. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Feigin, V.L. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fox, J. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Haghparast Bidgoli, H. Hagos, T.B. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoang, H.T. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, C.T. Ileanu, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Mohammed, S. Islam, S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Jonas, J.B. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kawakami, N. Kazemi Karyani, A. Keighobadi, M.M. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khazaei, M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, P. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Kotsakis, G.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Looker, K.J. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Low, N. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lucchesi, L.R. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Mahotra, N.B. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Manhertz, T. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Meltzer, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezerji, N.M.G. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miltz, B. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Ram, U. Ranjan, P. Ranta, A. Rao, P.C. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reinig, N. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezai, M.S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Sadat, N. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, K. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shishani, K. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Slepak, E.L.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Soosaraei, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Steiner, T.J. Stokes, M.A. Stovner, L.J. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylte, D.O. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tadesse, B.T. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Taylor, H.R. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Thomas, N. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Tsilimbaris, M.K. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Unutzer, J. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, K. Zhao, Z. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Disease Injury Incidence Prevalence Collaborators
Abstract: Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Published: 2018

46. SUN-248 ADVERSE HEALTH OUTCOMES AFTER INCIDENT PNEUMONIA IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE: DATA ANALYSIS FROM STOCKHOLM CREATININE MEASUREMENT PROJECT

Author: SU, G., primary, Trevisan, M., additional, Ishigami, J., additional, Matsushita, K., additional, Stålsby Lundborg, C., additional, and Carrero, J.J., additional
Published: 2019
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47. Serum potassium and adverse outcomes across the range of kidney function: a CKD Prognosis Consortium meta-analysis

Author: Kovesdy, C.P., Matsushita, K., Sang, Y., Brunskill, N.J., Carrero, J.J., Chodick, G., Hasegawa, T., Heerspink, H.L., Hirayama, A., Landman, G.W., Levin, A., Nitsch, D., Wheeler, D.C., Coresh, J., Hallan, S.I., Wetzels, J.F.M., Shalev, V., Grams, M.E., Kovesdy, C.P., Matsushita, K., Sang, Y., Brunskill, N.J., Carrero, J.J., Chodick, G., Hasegawa, T., Heerspink, H.L., Hirayama, A., Landman, G.W., Levin, A., Nitsch, D., Wheeler, D.C., Coresh, J., Hallan, S.I., Wetzels, J.F.M., Shalev, V., and Grams, M.E.
Abstract: Item does not contain fulltext, Aims: Both hypo- and hyperkalaemia can have immediate deleterious physiological effects, and less is known about long-term risks. The objective was to determine the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and end-stage renal disease associated with potassium levels across the range of kidney function and evaluate for consistency across cohorts in a global consortium. Methods and results: We performed an individual-level data meta-analysis of 27 international cohorts [10 general population, 7 high cardiovascular risk, and 10 chronic kidney disease (CKD)] in the CKD Prognosis Consortium. We used Cox regression followed by random-effects meta-analysis to assess the relationship between baseline potassium and adverse outcomes, adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics, overall and across strata of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. We included 1 217 986 participants followed up for a mean of 6.9 years. The average age was 55 +/- 16 years, average eGFR was 83 +/- 23 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 17% had moderate- to-severe increased albuminuria levels. The mean baseline potassium was 4.2 +/- 0.4 mmol/L. The risk of serum potassium of >5.5 mmol/L was related to lower eGFR and higher albuminuria. The risk relationship between potassium levels and adverse outcomes was U-shaped, with the lowest risk at serum potassium of 4-4.5 mmol/L. Compared with a reference of 4.2 mmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.29] at 5.5 mmol/L and 1.49 (95% CI 1.26-1.76) at 3.0 mmol/L. Risks were similar by eGFR, albuminuria, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor use, and across cohorts. Conclusions: Outpatient potassium levels both above and below the normal range are consistently associated with adverse outcomes, with similar risk relationships across eGFR and albuminuria.
Published: 2018

48. Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Author: Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., Soofi M., Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., and Soofi M.
Abstract: Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Method(s): Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Finding(s): Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of agestandardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4.3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13.6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attrib
Published: 2018

49. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Author: Soljak M., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tandon N., Tao T., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Shifa G.T., Terkawi A.S., Tessema G.A., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Fullman N., Barber R.M., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Antonio C.A.T., Ansari H., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Bilal A.I., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bizuayehu H.M., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chew A., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., DeVeber G.A., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Sofia E Sa Farinha C., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Glenn S.D., Godwin W.W., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Bidgoli H.H., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., He J., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Holmberg M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Huang H., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lazarus J.V., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., El Razek H.M.A., El Razek M.M.A., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marks G.B., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Moses M.W., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perico D.N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rao P.C., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf S., Reidy P., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Blancas M.J.R., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Shirude S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schneider M.T., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Silberberg D.H., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Sufiyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Soljak M., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tandon N., Tao T., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Shifa G.T., Terkawi A.S., Tessema G.A., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Fullman N., Barber R.M., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Antonio C.A.T., Ansari H., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Bilal A.I., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bizuayehu H.M., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chew A., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., DeVeber G.A., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Sofia E Sa Farinha C., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Glenn S.D., Godwin W.W., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Bidgoli H.H., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., He J., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Holmberg M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Huang H., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lazarus J.V., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., El Razek H.M.A., El Razek M.M.A., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marks G.B., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Moses M.W., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perico D.N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rao P.C., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf S., Reidy P., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Blancas M.J.R., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Shirude S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schneider M.T., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Silberberg D.H., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Sufiyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., and Swaminathan S.
Abstract: Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Method(s): We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 25th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 975th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 567 (IQR 319-668) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (868, 95% uncertainty interval 846-889), Iceland (860, 841-876), and Sweden (856, 818-878) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (109, 96-119), the Central African Republic (110, 88-138), and Somalia (113, 95-131) recording the lowest. Betwee
Published: 2018

50. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author: Sartorius B., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Winkler A.S., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondemagegn S.A., Wu S., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yadav R., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., YentA1/4r G.K., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., York H.W., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zachariah G., Zadnik V., Zafar S., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeeb H., Zeleke M.M., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang K., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lopez A.D., Gakidou E., Murray C.J.L., de Courten B., Thrift A.G., Dicker D., Nguyen G., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abdurahman A.A., Abebe H.T., Abebe M., Abebe Z., Abebo T.A., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya P., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Agrawal A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadi A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.L.C.B., Ahmed S., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alebel A., Aleman A.V., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C.A., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Anlay D.Z., Ansari H., Ansariadi A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Appiah S.C.Y., Aremu O., Areri H.A., ArnlAv J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asadi-Lari M., Asayesh H., Asfaw E.T., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Ataro Z., Atey T.M.M., Athari S.S., Atique S., Atre S.R., Atteraya M.S., Attia E.F., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Awuah B., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayele H.T., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Badali H., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bali A.G., Banach M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barquera S., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Bassat Q., Basu A., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., BACopyrightjot Y., Bekele B.B., Belachew A.B., Belay A.G., Belay E., Belay S.A., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bertolacci G.J., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhatia E., Bhatt S., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M.S., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bisanzio D., Biswas T., BjArge T., Bleyer A., Bora Basara B., Bose D., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Britton G., Brugha T., Burke K.E., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Callender C.S.K.H., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano Rincon J.C., Cano J., Car M., CArdenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., CastaA+/-eda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., CatalA-LApez F., Aavlin A., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Champs A.P., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chen W., Chiang P.P.-C., Chimed-Ochir O., Chin K.L., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Cohen A.J., Collado-Mateo D., Constantin M.-M., Conti S., Cooper C., Cooper L.T., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crowe C.S., Crump J.A., Cucu A., Cunningham M., Daba A.K., Dachew B.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dang A.K., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das S.K., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Dash A.P., Davis Weaver N., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Dayama A., De la Hoz F.P., De leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Degfie T.T., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Demtsu B.B., Denova-GutiACopyrightrrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Doku D.T., Dolan K.A., Donnelly C.A., Dorsey E.R., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K.E., Drake T.M., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Edessa D., Edvardsson D., Eggen A.E., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., Elfaramawi M., El-Khatib Z., Ellingsen C.L., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y.Y., Er B., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeili R., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhar M., Fakhim H., Farag T., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., E SA Farinha C.S., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Farzaei M.H., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Feizy F., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Feyissa G.T., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finegold S., Fischer F., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Ford J.A., Foreman K.J., Fornari C., Frank T.D., Franklin R.C., Fukumoto T., Fuller J.E., Fullman N., FA1/4rst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Galan A., Gallus S., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Garcia-Gordillo M.A., Gebre T., Gebre A.K., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Gelano T.F., Gelaw Y.A., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Gessner B.D., Getachew S., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadami M.R., Ghadimi R., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghiasvand H., Ghimire M., Ghoshal A.G., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Gillum R.F., Giussani G., Goenka S., Goli S., Gomez R.S., Gomez-Cabrera M.C., GAmez-DantACopyrights H., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guimaraes A.L.S., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailegiyorgis T.T., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haririan H., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., He Y., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Hegazy M.I., Heibati B., Heidari M., Hendrie D., Henok A., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I., Herteliu C., Heydarpour F., Heydarpour P., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoek H.W., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Horino M., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc S., Hostiuc M., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Husseini A., Hussen M.M., Hutfless S., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C.T., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Isehunwa O.O., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain R., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., James S.L., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Joshi A., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., JA1/4risson M., Madhanraj K., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kahssay M., Kalani R., Kapil U., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassa Z.Y., Kassebaum N.J., Katibeh M., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemeini H., Kazemi Z., Kazemi Karyani A., Prakash K.C., Kebede S., Keiyoro P.N., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kereselidze M., Khader Y.S., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalid N., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khanna T., Khater M.M., Khatony A., Khazaie H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Khubchandani J., Kiadaliri A.A., Kibret G.D.D., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.-E., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kinra S., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kissoon N., KivimAki M., Kleber M.E., Knibbs L.D., Knudsen A.K.S., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosek M.N., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krishnaswami S., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Kuipers E.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kumsa F.A., Kutz M.J., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Langan S.M., Lansingh V.C., Lansky S., Larson H.J., Laryea D.O., Lassi Z.S., Latifi A., Lavados P.M., Laxmaiah A., Lazarus J.V., Lebedev G., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leta S., Levi M., Li S., Li Y., Li X., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lonsdale C., Lorch S.A., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Mabika C., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Maddison R., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malik M.A., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manamo W.A., Manda A.-L., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Marami D., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marina S., Martinez-Raga J., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., MArz W., Marzan M.B., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Masiye F., Massenburg B.B., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehendale S.M., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C., Meles H.G., Meles K.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miangotar Y., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Moazen B., Moges N.A., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed S., Mohammed M.A., Mohan V., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno VelAsquez I., Morgado-Da-costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Murhekar M., Murphy T.B., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Nair S., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Nawaz H., Ncama B.P., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngalesoni F.N., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen M., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Nisar M.I., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Nourollahpour Shiadeh M., Nowroozi M.R., Nsoesie E.O., Nyasulu P.S., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogah O.S., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong S.K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz J.R., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., Averland S., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R., Pakhale S., Pakhare A.P., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Pandey A.R., Pandian J.D., Parisi A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patel S., Patle A., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Pearce N., Peprah E.K., Pereira A., Pereira D.M., Perez K.M., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pirsaheb M., Pishgar F., Plass D., Polinder S., Pond C.D., Popova S., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash V., Prakash S., Prasad N., Qorbani M., Quistberg D.A., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Ur Rahman S., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Ranjan P., Ranta A., Rasella D., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Razo-GarcA-a C., Rego M.A.S., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reis C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezaeian S., Rezai M.S., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.L.P., Riojas H., Rios-Blancas M.J., Roba K.T., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roshchin D.O., Rostami A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salahshoor M., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., Saldanha R.F., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salz I., Sambala E.Z., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sanchez-NiA+/-o M.D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sao Jose B.P., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Savic M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Sayyah M., Scaria V., Schaeffner E., Schelonka K., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., SchAttker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Scott J.G., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., ServAn-Mori E., Shabaninejad H., Shackelford K.A., Shafieesabet A., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shakir R.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Sheikh A., Sheth K.N., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shifa G.T., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shiue I., Shokraneh F., Shrime M.G., Shukla S.R., Si S., Siabani S., Siddiqi T.J., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silpakit N., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singam N.S.V., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha A.P., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Skirbekk V., Sliwa K., Soares Filho A.M., Sobaih B.H., Sobhani S., Soofi M., Soriano J.B., Soyiri I.N., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Srivastava R.K., Starodubov V.I., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Stewart L.G., Stokes M.A., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sulo G., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Sutradhar I., Sykes B.L., Sylaja P.N., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., TabarACopyrights-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S.K., Takahashi K., Tandon N., Tassew A.A., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tawye N.Y., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., Teshale M.Y., Tessema B., Teweldemedhin M., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Thirunavukkarasu S., Thomas L.A., Thomas N., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Torre A.E., Tortajada-GirbACopyrights M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tripathi S., Tripathy S.P., Truelsen T.C., Truong N.T., Tsadik A.G., Tsilimparis N., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Uzun S.B., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Varavikova E., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Sartorius B., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Winkler A.S., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondemagegn S.A., Wu S., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yadav R., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., YentA1/4r G.K., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., York H.W., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zachariah G., Zadnik V., Zafar S., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeeb 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Abstract: Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Method(s): The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent comp
Published: 2018

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