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Contains fulltext : 235277.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) BACKGROUND: Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models. INTERPRETATION: The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.

Contains fulltext : 208975.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) BACKGROUND: Cerebral microbleeds are a neuroimaging biomarker of stroke risk. A crucial clinical question is whether cerebral microbleeds indicate patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack in whom the rate of future intracranial haemorrhage is likely to exceed that of recurrent ischaemic stroke when treated with antithrombotic drugs. We therefore aimed to establish whether a large burden of cerebral microbleeds or particular anatomical patterns of cerebral microbleeds can identify ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients at higher absolute risk of intracranial haemorrhage than ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies in adults with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cohorts were eligible for inclusion if they prospectively recruited adult participants with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack; included at least 50 participants; collected data on stroke events over at least 3 months follow-up; used an appropriate MRI sequence that is sensitive to magnetic susceptibility; and documented the number and anatomical distribution of cerebral microbleeds reliably using consensus criteria and validated scales. Our prespecified primary outcomes were a composite of any symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or ischaemic stroke, symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage, and symptomatic ischaemic stroke. We registered this study with the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews, number CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1996, and Dec 1, 2018, we identified 344 studies. After exclusions for ineligibility or declined requests for inclusion, 20 322 patients from 38 cohorts (over 35 225 patient-years of follow-up; median 1.34 years [IQR 0.19-2.44]) were included in our analyses. The adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] comparing patients with cerebral microbleeds to those without was 1.35 (95% CI 1.20-1.50) for the composite outcome of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke; 2.45 (1.82-3.29) for intracranial haemorrhage and 1.23 (1.08-1.40) for ischaemic stroke. The aHR increased with increasing cerebral microbleed burden for intracranial haemorrhage but this effect was less marked for ischaemic stroke (for five or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 4.55 [95% CI 3.08-6.72] for intracranial haemorrhage vs 1.47 [1.19-1.80] for ischaemic stroke; for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 5.52 [3.36-9.05] vs 1.43 [1.07-1.91]; and for >/=20 cerebral microbleeds, aHR 8.61 [4.69-15.81] vs 1.86 [1.23-1.82]). However, irrespective of cerebral microbleed anatomical distribution or burden, the rate of ischaemic stroke exceeded that of intracranial haemorrhage (for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, 64 ischaemic strokes [95% CI 48-84] per 1000 patient-years vs 27 intracranial haemorrhages [17-41] per 1000 patient-years; and for >/=20 cerebral microbleeds, 73 ischaemic strokes [46-108] per 1000 patient-years vs 39 intracranial haemorrhages [21-67] per 1000 patient-years). INTERPRETATION: In patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleeds are associated with a greater relative hazard (aHR) for subsequent intracranial haemorrhage than for ischaemic stroke, but the absolute risk of ischaemic stroke is higher than that of intracranial haemorrhage, regardless of cerebral microbleed presence, antomical distribution, or burden. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Stroke Association.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background and Purpose— Perivascular spaces (PVSs) are considered markers of small vessel disease. However, their long-term prognostic implications in transient ischemic attack/ischemic stroke patients are unknown. Ethnic differences in PVS prevalence are also unknown. Methods— Two independent prospective studies were conducted, 1 comprising predominantly whites with transient ischemic attack/ischemic stroke (OXVASC [Oxford Vascular] study) and 1 comprising predominantly Chinese with ischemic stroke (University of Hong Kong). Clinical and imaging correlates, prognostic implications for stroke and death, and ethnic differences in basal ganglia (BG) and centrum semiovale (CS) PVSs were studied with adjustment for age, sex, vascular risk factors, and scanner strength. Results— Whites with transient ischemic attack/ischemic stroke (n=1028) had a higher prevalence of both BG and CS-PVSs compared with Chinese (n=974; >20 BG-PVSs: 22.4% versus 7.1%; >20 CS-PVSs: 45.8% versus 10.4%; P20 PVSs: HR, 1.82; 1.18–2.80; P=0.011) but not intracerebral hemorrhage (P=0.10) or all-cause mortality (P=0.16). CS-PVSs were not associated with recurrent stroke (P=0.57) or mortality (P=0.072). Prognostic associations were similar in both cohorts. Conclusions— Over and above ethnic differences in frequency of PVSs in transient ischemic attack/ischemic stroke patients, BG and CS-PVSs had similar risk factors, but although >20 BG-PVSs were associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, CS-PVSs were not.

Background and Purpose— CT remains the most commonly used imaging technique in acute stroke but is often delayed after minor stroke. Interobserver reliability in distinguishing hemorrhagic transformation of infarction from intracerebral hemorrhage may depend on delays to CT but has not been reported previously despite the clinical importance of this distinction. Methods— Initial CT scans with intraparenchymal hematoma from the first 1000 patients with stroke in the Oxford Vascular Study were independently categorized as intracerebral hemorrhage or hemorrhagic transformation of infarction by 5 neuroradiologists, both blinded and unblinded to clinical history. Thirty scans were reviewed twice. Agreement was quantified by the κ statistic. Results— Seventy-eight scans showed intraparenchymal hematoma. Blinded pairwise interrater agreements for a diagnosis of intracerebral hemorrhage ranged from κ=0.15 to 0.48 with poor overall agreement (κ=0.35; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.54) even after unblinding (κ=0.41; 0.21 to 0.60). Blinded intrarater agreements ranged from κ=0.21 to 0.92. Lack of consensus after unblinding was greatest in patients scanned ≥24 hours after stroke onset (67% versus 25%, P =0.001) and in minor stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ≤5: 56% versus 29%, P =0.04) with disagreement in 75% of patients scanned ≥24 hours after minor stroke and in 48% of all 30-day stroke survivors in whom reliable diagnosis would be expected to influence long-term management. Conclusion— Reliability of diagnosis of intraparenchymal hematoma on CT brain scan in minor stroke is poor, particularly if scanning is delayed. Immediate brain imaging is justified in patients with minor stroke.

Background: Treatment of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) has changed substantially over the last 25 years but there is a lack of reliable population-based data on whether case-fatality or functional outcomes have improved. Methods: We determined changes in the standardized incidence and outcome of SAH in the same population between 1981 and 1986 (Oxford Community Stroke Project) and 2002 and 2008 (Oxford Vascular Study). In a meta-analysis with other population-based studies, we used linear regression to determine time trends in outcome. Results: There were no reductions in incidence of SAH (RR = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48–1.29, p = 0.34) and in 30-day case-fatality (RR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.39–1.13, p = 0.14) in the Oxford Vascular Study vs Oxford Community Stroke Project, but there was a decrease in overall mortality (RR = 0.47, 0.23–0.97, p = 0.04). Following adjustment for age and baseline SAH severity, patients surviving to hospital had reduced risk of death or dependency (modified Rankin score > 3) at 12 months in the Oxford Vascular Study (RR = 0.51, 0.29–0.88, p = 0.01). Among 32 studies covering 39 study periods from 1980 to 2005, 7 studied time trends within single populations. Unadjusted case-fatality fell by 0.9% per annum (0.3–1.5, p = 0.007) in a meta-analysis of data from all studies, and by 0.9% per annum (0.2–1.6%, p = 0.01) within the 7 population studies. Conclusion: Mortality due to subarachnoid hemorrhage fell by about 50% in our study population over the last 2 decades, due mainly to improved outcomes in cases surviving to reach hospital. This improvement is consistent with a significant decrease in case-fatality over the last 25 years in our pooled analysis of other similar population-based studies.

Background: Acute coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events have common underlying arterial pathology, risk factors, and preventive treatments, but they are rarely studied concurrently. In the Oxford Vascular Study, we determined the comparative epidemiology of different acute vascular syndromes, their current burdens, and the potential effect of the ageing population on future rates. Methods: We prospectively assessed all individuals presenting with an acute vascular event of any type in any arterial territory irrespective of age in a population of 91 106 in Oxfordshire, UK, in 2002-05. Findings: 2024 acute vascular events occurred in 1657 individuals: 918 (45%) cerebrovascular (618 stroke, 300 transient ischaemic attacks [TIA]); 856 (42%) coronary vascular (159 ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 316 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 218 unstable angina, 163 sudden cardiac death); 188 (9%) peripheral vascular (43 aortic, 53 embolic visceral or limb ischaemia, 92 critical limb ischaemia); and 62 unclassifiable deaths. Relative incidence of cerebrovascular events compared with coronary events was 1·19 (95% CI 1·06-1·33) overall; 1·40 (1·23-1·59) for non-fatal events; and 1·21 (1·04-1·41) if TIA and unstable angina were further excluded. Event and incidence rates rose steeply with age in all arterial territories, with 735 (80%) cerebrovascular, 623 (73%) coronary, and 147 (78%) peripheral vascular events in 12 886 (14%) individuals aged 65 years or older; and 503 (54%), 402 (47%), and 105 (56%), respectively, in the 5919 (6%) aged 75 years or older. Although case-fatality rates increased with age, 736 (47%) of 1561 non-fatal events occurred at age 75 years or older. Interpretation: The high rates of acute vascular events outside the coronary arterial territory and the steep rise in event rates with age in all territories have implications for prevention strategies, clinical trial design, and the targeting of funds for service provision and research.

Background A previous hospital clinic-based study estimated that 3·5% of minor strokes are due to primary intracerebral haemorrhage, but the confidence intervals were wide. Moreover this figure may be an underestimate in older patients, who are less likely to be referred to secondary care, and who may have higher rates of intracerebral haemorrhage. Further studies are required to validate and increase the precision of this estimate and to determine any association with age, in order to plan appropriate services for minor stroke. Method We determined the frequency of intracerebral haemorrhage and haemorrhagic transformation of infarction in consecutive patients presenting with minor stroke (National Institute of Health Stroke Scal ≥ 3) in two separate cohorts: a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study) scanned early with computed tomography, and a hospital-based stroke clinic cohort, scanned with magnetic resonance imaging. We then pooled these data in a meta-analysis with published data from similar studies identified from a systematic literature review. Results In the Oxford Vascular Study, of 334 cases with minor stroke (58% men, median age 75 years), 17 had intracerebral haemorrhage (5·1%, 95% confidence interval 3·2-8·0%) and four had haemorrhagic transformation of infarction (1·2%, 0·5-3·0%). In the hospital-clinic cohort, of 280 patients with minor stroke (59% men, median age 73 years), 15 had intracerebral haemorrhage (5·4%, 3·3-8·7%) and six had haemorrhagic transformation of infarction (2·1%, 1·0-4·6%). There was no trend for an increase in the frequency of intracerebral haemorrhage with age, with the lowest frequency in patients aged ≥85 years (0-3%). We identified only one previous study with a reliable estimate of the proportion of minor stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage, and in a pooled analysis including 842 patients, the overall frequency of intracerebral haemorrhage was 4·8% (4·5-5·0%). Conclusion We have shown that the proportion of minor stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage was very similar in a population-based cohort and a hospital clinic-based cohort using different imaging strategies, and that the frequency is independent of age. A frequency of between 4·5 and 5·0% appears to be a reliable estimate at all ages.

UNLABELLED: Many patients with minor stroke are referred to outpatient clinics and are not scanned immediately. A clinical rule is needed to identify patients who are likely to have intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and require urgent brain imaging and patients who can safely start antiplatelet agents before scanning. METHODS: Clinical factors associated with ICH were determined in 334 consecutive patients with minor stroke (National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score < or = 3), and a predictive model for ICH that was validated in a cohort of 280 patients presenting to a hospital-stroke clinic was derived. Prognostic value was quantified as the area under the ROC curve (c statistics). RESULTS: The proportion of ICH in minor stroke was 5.1% (95% CI 3.2% to 8.0%) in OXVASC, and 5.4% (3.3% to 8.7%) in the clinic cohort. Clinical factors predictive of ICH in OXVASC included blood pressure on initial assessment > or = 180/110 mm Hg (OR 14.5, 95% CI 1.8 to 114, p=0.001), vomiting (OR 15.7, 95% CI 5.4 to 46, p or = 1 of the following were present: (S) severe hypertension, (C) confusion, (A) anticoagulation, (N) nausea and vomiting. In the clinic validation cohort, > or = 1 predictive factor was identified in 14/15 of patients with ICH and in 24% overall (c statistic 0.87, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.95). CONCLUSION: The SCAN rule appears to be specific and sensitive at identifying ICH in an independent cohort of patients with minor stroke, although further independent validations are needed.

Spontaneous (non-traumatic) intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) has a high case-fatality and leaves many survivors disabled. Clinical characteristics and outcome seem to vary according to the cause of ICH, but population-based comparisons are scarce. We studied two prospective, population-based cohorts to determine differences in outcome [case-fatality and modified Rankin Scale (mRS)] after incident ICH due to brain arteriovenous malformations (AVM) [Scottish Intracranial Vascular Malformation Study (SIVMS), n = 90] and spontaneous ICH [Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC), n = 60]. Patients with AVM-ICH were younger, had lower pre-stroke and admission blood pressure (BP), higher admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and were more likely to have an ICH in a lobar location than patients with spontaneous ICH (sICH). Case fatality throughout 2-year follow-up was greater following sICH than AVM-ICH [34/56 (61%) versus 11/90 (12%) at 1 year, odds ratio (OR) 11 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 5-25)], as was death or dependence (mRS >or= 3) [40/48 (83%) versus 26/65 (40%) at 1 year, OR 8 (3-19)]. Differences in outcome persisted following stratification by age and sensitivity analyses. In multivariable analyses of 1 year outcome, independent predictors of death were sICH (OR 21, 4-104) and increasing ICH volume (OR 1.03, 1.01-1.05), and independent predictors of death or dependence were sICH (OR 11, 2-62) and GCS on admission (OR 0.79, 0.67-0.93). Outcome after AVM-ICH is better than after sICH, independent of patient age and other known predictors of ICH outcome.

Summary Background UK stroke mortality data suggest that the incidence of haemorrhagic stroke has fallen in the past 20 years, but these data do not include deaths of individuals aged 75 years or over. Trends in the older population might differ, since cause varies with age. Our aim was to investigate changes in the population-based incidence of intracerebral haemorrhage according to age and likely aetiology. Methods We used data from the Oxford Community Stroke Project (OCSP; 1981–86) and the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC; 2002–06) to investigate changes in the incidence of intracerebral haemorrhage with time, above and below age 75 years, together with associated risk factors and premorbid medications. Incidences were standardised to the 2001 census population of England and Wales. Findings In the population aged under 75 years the incidence of intracerebral haemorrhage decreased substantially (rate ratio 0·53, 95% CI 0·29–0·95; p=0·03), but the number of cases of intracerebral haemorrhage at all ages were similar in OXVASC and OCSP (52 vs 55 cases) as the proportion of cases occurring at 75 years and over tended to increase (2·0, 0·8–4·6; p=0·09). The incidence of intracerebral haemorrhage associated with premorbid hypertension (blood pressure ≥160/100 mm Hg) fell overall (0·37, 0·20–0·69; p=0·002), but the incidence of intracerebral haemorrhage associated with antithrombotic use was increased (7·4, 1·7–32; p=0·007). Above age 75 years the proportion of cases who were non-hypertensive with lobar bleeds and presumed to have had mainly amyloid-related haemorrhages, also increased (4·0, 1·1–17; p=0·003). Interpretation There has been a substantial fall in hypertension-associated intracerebral haemorrhage over the past 25 years, but not in the overall number of cases of intracerebral haemorrhage in older age-groups, in part due to a rise in intracerebral haemorrhage associated with antithrombotic use. These trends, along with the expected increase in prevalence of amyloid angiopathy with the ageing population, suggest that, in contrast to projections based on mortality data below age 75 years, absolute number of cases of intracerebral haemorrhage might increase in future.

BACKGROUND: Effective early management of patients with transient ischaemic attacks (TIA) is undermined by an inability to predict who is at highest early risk of stroke. METHODS: We derived a score for 7-day risk of stroke in a population-based cohort of patients (n=209) with a probable or definite TIA (Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project; OCSP), and validated the score in a similar population-based cohort (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC, n=190). We assessed likely clinical usefulness to front-line health services by using the score to stratify all patients with suspected TIA referred to OXVASC (n=378, outcome: 7-day risk of stroke) and to a hospital-based weekly TIA clinic (n=210; outcome: risk of stroke before appointment). RESULTS: A six-point score derived in the OCSP (age [> or =60 years=1], blood pressure [systolic >140 mm Hg and/or diastolic > or =90 mm Hg=1], clinical features [unilateral weakness=2, speech disturbance without weakness=1, other=0], and duration of symptoms in min [> or =60=2, 10-59=1