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The Northeast U.S. continental shelf is a highly productive and economically important region that has experienced robust changes in upper-ocean properties in recent decades. Warming rates exceed the global and North Atlantic average and in particular several episodes of anomalously warm temperatures, so called marine heatwaves, had devastating impacts on regional fisheries over the past decade. Stratification will strongly impact the magnitude of surface warming. Ocean salinity can play an important role in the development of seasonal stratification, ultimately also modulating horizontal density gradients. Here, we use various available products of sea surface salinity to assess seasonal to interannual variability with focus on the continental shelf south of New England. In-situ data from local observing systems and campaigns provide valuable (sub-) surface data for validation and assessment of the relative roles of temperature and salinity in driving density variability and stratification. Coastal river discharge coast drives a seasonal freshening on the shelf, while shelf break exchange driven by the interaction with Gulf Stream warm core rings is associated with an onshore salt flux. Large-scale forcing in the North Atlantic can impact the along-shelf advection of Arctic-sourced freshwater, which likely shifted the hydrographic properties on the shelf in the recent decade. Salinity serves as an valuable tracer of these multi-variate processes. With now more than a decade of satellite surface salinity we aim to shed new light on the spatiotemporal variability across various scales on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf and how it is embedded in large-scale North Atlantic variability., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Historical wind patterns in the North Atlantic are assessed using U.S. whaling logbooks of voyages from the 19th century, a time when instrumental wind observations were not widely available. The recordings from whaling ship logbooks provide systematic daily to sub-daily information about wind force, wind direction, and other weather observations (e.g., precipitation, sea state) over a period from ca. 1785-1915 and are housed in the New England archives by the New Bedford Whaling Museum, Nantucket Historical Association, and Providence Public Library. The extracted data from the whaling logbooks is quality checked, and the qualitative wind descriptions transferred to the Beaufort wind force scale to better compare it to the 20th-Century-Reanalysis. Specifically, the whaling ship logbook-sourced wind recordings are used in conjunction with several indices of North Atlantic climate variability, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, to explore variations and change in predominant North Atlantic wind patterns in the past. Here we demonstrate that the wind data from the whaling ship logbooks agrees with mean wind patterns and climate variability reconstructed for the North Atlantic and therefore provides valuable insights into the past wind patterns in this area complementing existing reanalysis products. We further demonstrate how qualitative descriptive wind information can be turned into quantitative information that can be directly compared with numerical data from reanalysis models. Since the comparison of the historical logbook data with the 20th-Century-Reanalysis data shows overall good agreement, it can be used to gain a further understanding of the dominant climate patterns in the North Atlantic and might aid development of improved indices of North Atlantic climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or Azores High index.

The Northwest Atlantic, which has exhibited evidence of accelerated warming compared to the global ocean, also experienced several notable marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the last decade. We analyze spatiotemporal patterns of surface and subsurface temperature structure across the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope to assess the influences of atmospheric and oceanic processes on ocean temperatures. Here we focus on MHWs from 2015/16 and examine their physical drivers using observational and reanalysis products. We find that a combination of jet stream latitudinal position and ocean advection, mainly due to warm core rings shed by the Gulf Stream, plays a role in MHW development. While both atmospheric and oceanic drivers can lead to MHWs they have different temperature signatures with each affecting the vertical structure differently and horizontal spatial patterns of a MHW. Northwest Atlantic MHWs have significant socio-economic impacts and affect commercially important species such as squid and lobster.

International audience; The ability of individuals and populations to adapt to a changing climate is a key determinant ofpopulation dynamics. While changes in mean behaviour are well studied, changes in trait variancehave been largely ignored, despite being assumed to be crucial for adapting to a changingenvironment. As the ability to acquire resources is essential to both reproduction and survival,changes in behaviours that maximise resource acquisition, should be under selection. Here, usingforaging trip duration data collected over 7 years on black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarchemelanophris) on the Kerguelen Islands in the southern Indian Ocean, we examine the importanceof changes in the mean and variance in foraging behaviour, and the associated effects on fitness, inresponse to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Using double hierarchical models, we find noevidence that individuals change their mean foraging trip duration in response to a changingenvironment, but strong evidence of changes in variance. Younger birds showed greater variabilityin foraging trip duration in poor conditions as did birds with higher fitness. However, duringbrooding, birds showed greater variability in foraging behaviour under good conditions,suggesting that optimal conditions allow the alteration between chick provisioning and selfmaintenancetrips. We found weak correlations between sea-surface temperature and the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation, but stronger links with sea-level pressure. We suggest that variability inbehavioural traits affecting resource acquisition is under selection and offers a mechanism bywhich individuals can adapt to a changing climate. Studies which look only at effects on meanbehaviour may underestimate the effects of climate change and fail to consider variance in traits asa key evolutionary force.

Across the Indo-Pacific region, rapid increases in surface temperatures, ocean heat content and concomitant hydrological changes have implications for sea level rise, ocean circulation and regional freshwater availability. In this Review, we synthesize evidence from multiple data sources to elucidate whether the observed heat and freshwater changes in the Indian Ocean represent an intensification of the hydrological cycle, as expected in a warming world. At the basin scale, twentieth century warming trends can be unequivocally attributed to human-induced climate change. Changes since 1980, however, appear dominated by multi-decadal variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation, manifested as shifts in the Walker circulation and a corresponding reorganization of the Indo-Pacific heat and freshwater balance. Such variability, coupled with regional-scale trends, a short observational record and climate model uncertainties, makes it difficult to assess whether contemporary changes represent an anthropogenically forced transformation of the hydrological cycle. Future work must, therefore, focus on maintaining and expanding observing systems of remotely sensed and in situ observations, as well as extending and integrating coral proxy networks. Improved climate model simulations of the Maritime Continent region and its intricate exchange between the Pacific and Indian oceans are further necessary to quantify and attribute Indo-Pacific hydrological changes. The Indian Ocean has undergone substantial heat and freshwater changes. This Review uses various data sources to examine the causes of contemporary and longer-term hydrological changes, revealing that trends over the twentieth century are linked to anthropogenic forcing, but that those since 1980 are related to the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation.

This study uses sea surface salinity (SSS) as an additional precursor for improving the prediction of summer [December–February (DJF)] rainfall over northeastern Australia. From a singular value decomposition between SSS of prior seasons and DJF rainfall, we note that SSS of the Indo-Pacific warm pool region [SSSP (150°E–165°W and 10°S–10°N) and SSSI (50°–95°E and 10°S–10°N)] covaries with Australian rainfall, particularly in the northeast region. Composite analysis that is based on high or low SSS events in the SSSP and SSSI regions is performed to understand the physical links between the SSS and the atmospheric moisture originating from the regions of anomalously high or low, respectively, SSS and precipitation over Australia. The composites show the signature of co-occurring La Niña and negative Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously wet conditions over Australia and conversely show the signature of co-occurring El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously dry conditions there. During the high SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the convergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously wet conditions over Australia with a positive soil moisture anomaly. Conversely, during the low SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the divergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously dry conditions over Australia with a negative soil moisture anomaly. We show from the random-forest regression analysis that the local soil moisture, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and SSSP are the most important precursors for the northeast Australian rainfall whereas for the Brisbane region ENSO, SSSP, and the Indian Ocean dipole are the most important. The prediction of Australian rainfall using random-forest regression shows an improvement by including SSS from the prior season. This evidence suggests that sustained observations of SSS can improve the monitoring of the Australian regional hydrological cycle.

The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific. Atmospheric circulation shifts during the Little Ice Age led to greater typhoon generation in the tropical North Pacific according to a comparison of sediment proxy records of past storm activity and outputs of general circulation models.

The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), established in 2006, is a multinational network of sustained oceanic measurements that underpin understanding and forecasting of weather and climate for the Indian Ocean region and beyond. Almost one-third of humanity lives around the Indian Ocean, many in countries dependent on fisheries and rain-fed agriculture that are vulnerable to climate variability and extremes. The Indian Ocean alone has absorbed a quarter of the global oceanic heat uptake over the last two decades and the fate of this heat and its impact on future change is unknown. Climate models project accelerating sea level rise, more frequent extremes in monsoon rainfall, and decreasing oceanic productivity. In view of these new scientific challenges, a 3-yr international review of the IndOOS by more than 60 scientific experts now highlights the need for an enhanced observing network that can better meet societal challenges, and provide more reliable forecasts. Here we present core findings from this review, including the need for 1) chemical, biological, and ecosystem measurements alongside physical parameters; 2) expansion into the western tropics to improve understanding of the monsoon circulation; 3) better-resolved upper ocean processes to improve understanding of air–sea coupling and yield better subseasonal to seasonal predictions; and 4) expansion into key coastal regions and the deep ocean to better constrain the basinwide energy budget. These goals will require new agreements and partnerships with and among Indian Ocean rim countries, creating opportunities for them to enhance their monitoring and forecasting capacity as part of IndOOS-2.

High-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulations are employed to investigate interannual variability of the upper-ocean temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean (20°S–20°N). The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the upper-ocean temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean in the forced ocean simulation are in good agreement with available observation and reanalysis products. Two further sensitivity OGCM simulations are used to separate the relative contributions of heat flux and wind stress. The comparison of the model simulations reveals the depth-dependent influences of heat flux and wind stress on the ocean temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Generally, heat flux dominates the temperature variability in the top 30 m, while wind stress contributes most strongly to the subsurface temperature variability below 30 m. This implies that a transition depth should exist at each location, where the dominant control of the ocean temperature variability switched from heat flux to wind stress. We define the depth of this transition point as the 'crossing depth' and make use of this concept to better understand the depth-dependent impacts of the heat flux and wind stress on the upper-ocean temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. The crossing depth tends to be shallower in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (20°S-EQ), including the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), suggesting the dominance of forcing due to wind stress and the resulting ocean dynamical processes in the temperature variability in those regions. The crossing depth also shows prominent seasonal variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean. In the SCTR, the variability of the subsurface temperature forced by the wind stress dominates largely in boreal winter and spring, resulting in the shallow crossing depth in these seasons. In contrast, the intensified subsurface temperature variability with shallow crossing depth in the eastern part of the IOD is seen during boreal autumn. Overall, our results suggest that the two regions within the tropical Indian Ocean, the SCTR and the eastern part of the IOD, are the primary locations where the ocean dynamics due to wind-stress forcing control the upper-ocean temperature variability.

The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on interseasonal to interannual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies toward Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, salty anomalies around the Maritime Continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, a moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean–atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g., the 2010/11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.

More frequent high pressure conditions associated with atmospheric blocking episodes over Greenland in recent decades have been suggested to enhance melt through large-scale subsidence and cloud dissipation, which allows more solar radiation to reach the ice sheet surface. Here we investigate mechanisms linking high pressure circulation anomalies to Greenland cloud changes and resulting cloud radiative effects, with a focus on the previously neglected role of topography. Using reanalysis and satellite data in addition to a regional climate model, we show that anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Greenland during recent extreme blocking summers produce cloud changes dependent on orographic lift and descent. The resulting increased cloud cover over northern Greenland promotes surface longwave warming, while reduced cloud cover in southern and marginal Greenland favors surface shortwave warming. Comparison with an idealized model simulation with flattened topography reveals that orographic effects were necessary to produce area-averaged decreasing cloud cover since the mid-1990s and the extreme melt observed in the summer of 2012. This demonstrates a key role for Greenland topography in mediating the cloud and melt response to large-scale circulation variability. These results suggest that future melt will depend on the pattern of circulation anomalies as well as the shape of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0527.s1. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1–4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which—together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling—may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability. Coral records indicate that the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole over the last millennium is strongly coupled to variability in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and that recent extremes are unusual but not unprecedented.

Iberia is predicted under future warming scenarios to be increasingly impacted by drought. While it is known that this region has experienced multiple intervals of enhanced aridity over the Holocene, additional hydroclimate-sensitive records from Iberia are necessary to place current and future drying into a broader perspective. Toward that end, we present a multi-proxy composite record from six well-dated and overlapping speleothems from Buraca Gloriosa (BG) cave, located in western Portugal. The coherence between the six stalagmites in this composite stalagmite record illustrates that climate (not in-cave processes) impacts speleothem isotopic values. This record provides the first high-resolution, precisely dated, terrestrial record of Holocene hydroclimate from west-central Iberia. The BG record reveals that aridity in western Portugal increased secularly from 9.0 ka BP to present, as evidenced by rising values of both carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) stable isotope values. This trend tracks the decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and parallels Iberian margin sea surface temperatures (SST). The increased aridity over the Holocene is consistent with changes in Hadley Circulation and a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Centennial-scale shifts in hydroclimate are coincident with changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) after 4 ka BP. Several major drying events are evident, the most prominent of which was centered around 4.2 ka BP, a feature also noted in other Iberian climate records and coinciding with well-documented regional cultural shifts. Substantially, wetter conditions occurred from 0.8 ka BP to 0.15 ka BP, including much of the ‘Little Ice Age’. This was followed by increasing aridity toward present day. This composite stalagmite proxy record complements oceanic records from coastal Iberia, lacustrine records from inland Iberia, and speleothem records from both northern and southern Spain and depicts the spatial and temporal variability in hydroclimate in Iberia.

Recent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901–2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December–March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3–7 years. The ocean–atmosphere interaction over these 3–7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with the AMV cold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases.

Traditionally, high-latitude dendroclimatic studies have focused on measurements of total ring width (RW), with the maximum density of the latewood (MXD) serving as a complementary variable. Whilst MXD has typically improved the strength of the growing season climate connection over that of RW, its measurements are costly and time-consuming. Recently, a less costly and more time-efficient technique to extract density measurements has emerged, based on lignin’s propensity to absorb blue light. This Blue Intensity (BI) methodology is based on image analyses of finely-sanded core samples, and the relative ease with which density measurements can be extracted allows for significant increases in spatio-temporal sample depth. While some studies have attempted to combine RW and MXD as predictors for summer temperature reconstructions, here we evaluate a systematic comparison of the climate signal for RW and latewood BI (LWBI) separately, using a recently updated and expanded tree ring database for Labrador, Canada. We demonstrate that while RW responds primarily to climatic drivers earlier in the growing season (January–April), LWBI is more responsive to climate conditions during late spring and summer (May–August). Furthermore, RW appears to be driven primarily by large-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with the Pacific North American pattern, whilst LWBI is more closely associated with local climate conditions, themselves linked to the behaviour of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Lastly, we demonstrate that anomalously wide or narrow growth rings consistently respond to the same climate drivers as average growth years, whereas the sensitivity of LWBI to extreme climate conditions appears to be enhanced.

Tropical woody plants store ∼230 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in their aboveground living biomass. This review suggests that these stocks are currently growing in primary forests at rates that have decreased in recent decades. Droughts are an important mechanism in reducing forest C uptake and stocks by decreasing photosynthesis, elevating tree mortality, increasing autotrophic respiration, and promoting wildfires. Tropical forests were a C source to the atmosphere during the 2015–2016 El Niño–related drought, with some estimates suggesting that up to 2.3 PgC were released. With continued climate change, the intensity and frequency of droughts and fires will likely increase. It is unclear at what point the impacts of severe, repeated disturbances by drought and fires could exceed tropical forests’ capacity to recover. Although specific threshold conditions beyond which ecosystem properties could lead to alternative stable states are largely unknown, the growing body of scientific evidence points to such threshold conditions becoming more likely as climate and land use change across the tropics. ▪ Droughts have reduced forest carbon uptake and stocks by elevating tree mortality, increasing autotrophic respiration, and promoting wildfires. ▪ Threshold conditions beyond which tropical forests are pushed into alternative stable states are becoming more likely as effects of droughts intensify.

The interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) represents the decadal mode of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. As such the IPO is one of the dominant modes of decadal climate variability on both sides of the Pacific Ocean basin. For this paper we utilized a newly developed tree-ring data network comprised of five multi-centennial Vietnamese cypress ring-width chronologies that range from around 11°N–23°N latitude. We combined these data with an average of tree-ring derived drought indices from the North American Drought Atlas over the south central USA, from a box that spans from 27.5°N–35.0°N, 85.0°–110.0°W and contains 55 gridpoints and more than 100 tree ring site chronologies, these 2 locations exhibit rainfall variations that are strongly, negatively correlated with each other and are representative of the influence of the IPO on terrestrial rainfall. The final reconstruction model, weighted most heavily on the three most southerly of the five Vietnamese cypress records, spans from 1350 to 2004, and explains nearly 57% of the variance in the original IPO data for the 5-month season of October–February. The reconstruction model passes all standard statistical tests using a split calibration-verification scheme. We reveal 15 positive and 15 negative phase shifts of the IPO prior to the period of instrumentation, suggesting that the IPO has been active for at least the past seven centuries with varying degrees of intensity. We compare our reconstruction with two related millennial records: the MacDonald and Case (Geophys Res Lett 32(8):L08703, 2005) tree ring-derived reconstruction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and an ice core-derived reconstruction of the IPO from the Law Dome Ice core in Antarctica by Vance et al. (Geophys Res Lett 33(6):L06712, 2015). While there is good general agreement with the latter record, there are three key periods of the past where the two records are out of phase, and we explore the reasons for this disparity. Direct comparison with the related Tripole Index (TPI) shows weaker correlation, likely owing to the stronger relationship between our tree ring data and the equatorial Pacific region relative to the north and south regions of the Pacific that combine to comprise the TPI calculation.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 46(3), (2019):1702-1708. doi:10.1029/2018GL081087.

Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models’ historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ between the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability.

Research on Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) has focused primarily on AR (thermo)dynamics and hydrological impacts over land. However, the evolution and potential role of nearshore air-sea fluxes during la...

Marine heatwaves along the coast of Western Australia, referred to as Ningaloo Niño, have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystem in the recent decade. A number of local and remote forcing mechanisms have been put forward; however, little is known about the depth structure of such temperature extremes. Utilizing an eddy-active global ocean general circulation model, Ningaloo Niño and the corresponding cold Ningaloo Niña events are investigated between 1958 and 2016, with a focus on their depth structure. The relative roles of buoyancy and wind forcing are inferred from sensitivity experiments. Composites reveal a strong symmetry between cold and warm events in their vertical structure and associated large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature anomalies are largest at the surface, where buoyancy forcing is dominant, and extend down to 300-m depth (or deeper), with wind forcing being the main driver. Large-scale subsurface anomalies arise from a vertical modulation of the thermocline, extending from the western Pacific into the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The strongest Ningaloo Niños in 2000 and 2011 are unprecedented compound events, where long-lasting high temperatures are accompanied by extreme freshening, which emerges in association with La Niñas, that is more common and persistent during the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. It is shown that Ningaloo Niños during La Niña phases have a distinctively deeper reach and are associated with a strengthening of the Leeuwin Current, while events during El Niño are limited to the surface layer temperatures, likely driven by local atmosphere–ocean feedbacks, without a clear imprint on salinity and velocity.

Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for up to 10 years. Skilful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, ranging from agriculture to water resource management to human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skilful predictions can be made: on S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden–Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; on S2I, in predicting the El Niño–Southern Oscillation; and on S2D, in predicting ocean and atmosphere variability in the North Atlantic region. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritize reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could enhance predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth System models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea ice, air pollution, and terrestrial and ocean biochemistry that can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders. The foundations of this Review emerged from a workshop held by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine in 2015 at Woods Hole, MA, USA, and the authors gratefully acknowledge support from A. Purcell and N. Huddleston. G.A.M., J.H.R. and N.R. were supported in part by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590, and by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. M.H.E. acknowledges support from the Australian Research Council (Grant CE170100023). H.T. was partly supported by DOE/BER RGMA HiLAT-RASM. M.E.M. was supported by a grant from the NSF Paleoclimate Program #1748097. F.D.-R. and M.G.D. were supported by the H2020 EUCP project under Grant agreement no. 776613, and M.G.D also by the Ramón y Cajal 2017 grant reference RYC-2017-22964. A.C. acknowledges support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office’s Modeling Analysis, Prediction and Projections (MAPP) Program and from the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) Program. A.C.S. acknowledges support from the NOAA Climate Variability and Predictability Program (Award NA18OAR4310405) and NOAA-MAPP (NA17OAR4310106). N.S.L. is grateful for support from the NSF (OCE-1752724). D.T. acknowledges support from the NCAR Advanced Study Program and NSF (OCE-1931242). S.C.S was supported by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) Postdoctoral Fellowship. A.A.S. and D.S were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and by the European Commission Horizon 2020 EUCP project (GA 776613). Peer Reviewed "Article signat per 26 autors/es: Gerald A. Meehl, Jadwiga H. Richter, Haiyan Teng, Antonietta Capotondi, Kim Cobb, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Matthew H. England, John C. Fyfe, Weiqing Han, Hyemi Kim, Ben P. Kirtman, Yochanan Kushnir, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Michael E. Mann, William J. Merryfield, Veronica Nieves, Kathy Pegion, Nan Rosenbloom, Sara C. Sanchez, Adam A. Scaife, Doug Smith, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Lantao Sun, Diane Thompson, Caroline C. Ummenhofer & Shang-Ping Xie"

South-Eastern Brazil experienced a devastating drought associated with significant agricultural losses in austral summer 2014. The drought was linked to the development of a quasi-stationary anticyclone in the South Atlantic in early 2014 that affected local precipitation patterns over South-East Brazil. Previous studies have suggested that the unusual blocking was triggered by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and, more recently, by convection over the Indian Ocean related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Further investigation of the proposed teleconnections appears crucial for anticipating future economic impacts. In this study, we use numerical experiments with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model forced with the observed 2013/2014 SST anomalies in different ocean basins to understand the dominant mechanism that initiated the 2014 South Atlantic anticyclonic anomaly. We show that a forcing with global 2013/2014 SST anomalies enhances the chance for the occurrence of positive geopotential height anomalies in the South Atlantic. However, further sensitivity experiments with SST forcings in separate ocean basins suggest that neither the Indian Ocean nor tropical Pacific SST anomalies alone have contributed significantly to the anomalous atmospheric circulation that led to the 2014 South-East Brazil drought. The model study rather points to an important role of remote forcing from the South Pacific, local South Atlantic SSTs, and internal atmospheric variability in driving the persistent blocking over the South Atlantic. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00382-020-05442-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cave deposits can be valuable sources of paleoclimate data, especially when atmospheric circulation patterns, precipitation variability, vegetation changes, and the chemical evolution of waters moving through the karst environment can be mechanistically linked to speleothem proxies. In particular, an evaluation of the factors that control the isotopic composition of precipitation and the evolution of rainwater during migration from the land surface to the cave are needed to robustly develop speleothems as hydroclimate-sensitive proxies. One area in which precipitation and atmospheric variability are closely linked is western Iberia, where rainfall is strongly influenced by the Azores High, part of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dipole. Therefore, in order to better characterize the factors that influence the isotopic composition of precipitation in Portugal and to evaluate the potential of using stalagmites from this region as hydroclimate (and NAO-sensitive) proxies, we investigated Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data from ten mainland Portugal sites spanning multiple decades. In addition, we use more than one hydrologic year of precipitation amount and isotope data from Buraca Gloriosa (BG), a cave in western Portugal, the site of on-going speleothem analyses, as well as six years of environmental monitoring from BG. We present an integrated analysis of rainfall and vegetation through the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) following extremely wet and dry winters. Summer vegetation density, related to the amount of precipitation in the preceding winter wet season, as well as prior calcite precipitation (PCP), would largely control the stable carbon isotopic signature (delta C-13) in stalagmites at BG. Cool season recharge is likely the dominant factor for the oxygen isotopic composition (delta O-18) of water percolating through the cave system, while amount effects exert the primary control on precipitation delta O-18 values. Based on HYSPLIT modeling, moisture sources overwhelmingly originate from the Atlantic Ocean as opposed to the Mediterranean or elsewhere thus, variability in delta O-18 values in the precipitation (and, thus, by inference, those of the dripwater and stalagmites) are primarily reflecting changes in precipitation amount and not changing temperatures or source regions. Together these data constitute an important analysis of the controls of isotope proxies in Portuguese cave systems. US National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [1804528, 1804635, 1804132, 1805163] info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Rapid increases in upper 700‐m Indian Ocean heat content (IOHC) since the 2000s have focused attention on its role during the recent global surface warming hiatus. Here, we use ocean model simulations to assess distinct multidecadal IOHC variations since the 1960s and explore the relative contributions from wind stress and buoyancy forcing regionally and with depth. Multidecadal wind forcing counteracted IOHC increases due to buoyancy forcing from the 1960s to the 1990s. Wind and buoyancy forcing contribute positively since the mid‐2000s, accounting for the drastic IOHC change. Distinct timing and structure of upper ocean temperature changes in the eastern and western Indian Ocean are linked to the pathway how multidecadal wind forcing associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is transmitted and affects IOHC through local and remote winds. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial thermocline—of importance for low‐frequency variations in Indian Ocean Dipole occurrence—appears to be dominated by multidecadal variations in wind forcing.

The Amazon river basin receives ~2000 mm of precipitation annually and contributes ~17% of global river freshwater input to the oceans; its hydroclimatic variations can exert profound impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Amazon plume region (APR) and have potential far-reaching influences on hydroclimate over the tropical Atlantic. Here, we show that an amplified seasonal cycle of Amazonia precipitation, represented by the annual difference between maximum and minimum values, during the period 1979–2018, leads to enhanced seasonalities in both Amazon river discharge and APR ocean salinity. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis shows that these enhanced seasonal cycles are associated with similar amplifications in the atmospheric vertical and horizontal moisture advections. Hierarchical sensitivity experiments using global climate models quantify the relationships of these enhanced seasonalities. The results suggest that an intensified hydroclimatological cycle may develop in the Amazonia atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system, favouring more extreme terrestrial and marine conditions., The hydroclimatic variations of the Amazon River basin can exert profound impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Amazon plume region. Here the authors show that an amplified seasonal cycle of Amazonia precipitation during 1979–2018 leads to enhanced seasonality in both Amazon river discharge and ocean salinity.

Over the past 15 years, numerous studies have suggested that the sinking branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation and the associated subtropical dry zones have shifted poleward over the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century. Early estimates of this tropical widening from satellite observations and reanalyses varied from 0.25° to 3° latitude per decade, while estimates from global climate models show widening at the lower end of the observed range. In 2016, two working groups, the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on the Changing Width of the Tropical Belt and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Tropical Width Diagnostics Intercomparison Project, were formed to synthesize current understanding of the magnitude, causes, and impacts of the recent tropical widening evident in observations. These working groups concluded that the large rates of observed tropical widening noted by earlier studies resulted from their use of metrics that poorly capture changes in the Hadley circulation, or from the use of reanalyses that contained spurious trends. Accounting for these issues reduces the range of observed expansion rates to 0.25°–0.5° latitude decade‒1—within the range from model simulations. Models indicate that most of the recent Northern Hemisphere tropical widening is consistent with natural variability, whereas increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone likely played an important role in Southern Hemisphere widening. Whatever the cause or rate of expansion, understanding the regional impacts of tropical widening requires additional work, as different forcings can produce different regional patterns of widening.

The subtropical dry zones, including the broader Mediterranean region, are likely to experience considerable changes in hydroclimate in a warming climate. An expansion of the atmosphere’s meridional overturning circulation, the Hadley circulation, over recent decades has been reported, with implications for regional hydroclimate. Yet, there exists considerable disagreement in magnitude and even sign of these trends among different metrics that measure various aspects of the Hadley circulation, as well as discrepancies in trends between different analysis periods and reanalysis products during the 20th century. In light of these uncertainties, it is therefore of interest to explore variability and trends in subtropical hydroclimate and its dominant driver, the Hadley Circulation. We focus on the North Atlantic sector and explore variability in the Azores High, the manifestation of the Hadley Circulation’s downward branch, and hydroclimate across the Iberian Peninsula using a combination of observational/reanalysis products, state-of-the-art climate model simulations, and hydroclimatically-sensitive stalagmite records over the past 1200 yr. The Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) with the Community Earth System Model provides thirteen transient simulations covering the period 850 to 2005 A.D. with prescribed external forcing (e.g. greenhouse gas, solar, volcanic, land use, orbital, and aerosol) and smaller subsets with individual forcing only. The LME is shown to accurately simulate the variability and trends in the Azores High when compared to observational records from the 20th century. We evaluate variability in the Azores High (e.g., size, intensity, position) in relation to other key metrics that measure different aspects of the Hadley circulation throughout the course of the last millennium, as well as during key periods, such as the Little Ice Age or Medieval Climate Anomaly. The smaller subsets of LME simulations with individual forcing factors (e.g., solar, volcanic) allow for an attribution of past changes in regional hydroclimate to external drivers. Results from the climate model simulations are compared with hydroclimate reconstructed from stalagmites from Portuguese caves.

The dominant mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the southeast Indian Ocean off the coast of Western Australia is called Ningaloo Niño/Niña. An unprecedented Ningaloo Niño, or marine heatwave, occurred during the austral summer of 2010/2011 with mean SSTs at 3°C above the long-term mean and had drastic impacts on the ecosystem. This event was attributed to a combination of an anomalous strong Leeuwin Current and high local air-sea heat fluxes. A number of local and remote forcing mechanisms have been investigated in recent years, however, little is known about the depth-structure of these ocean extremes and their general connections to large-scale ocean interannual to decadal variability. Using a suite of simulations with a high-resolution global Ocean General Circulation Model from 1958-2016, we investigate eastern Indian Ocean variability with focus on Ningaloo Niño and corresponding cold Ningaloo Niña events. In particular, we are interested in the impacts of large-scale ocean and climate variability, such as the Indonesian Throughflow, El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on the study region. Spatial composites reveal large-scale surface and subsurface anomalies that extend from the western Pacific across the Indonesian Archipelago into the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. In particular, strong anomalies in temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are found to the west of Sumatra and Java, a region that is generally strongly impacted by the IOD. We therefore investigate the connection with Ningaloo Niño/Niña events, at surface and subsurface, with a focus on 2010/2011 where a strong negative IOD event occurred prior to the unprecedented Ningaloo Niño. Furthermore, we find that major heatwaves in 2000 and 2011 are associated with pronounced fresh anomalies. Sensitivity experiments allow us to assess the relative role of buoyancy and wind-forcing as drivers of the observed patterns. Our work can provide valuable contributions for advancing the understanding of Ningaloo Niño/Niña drivers from surface to depth and regional to large scales.

The Azores High is a subtropical high-pressure ridge in the North Atlantic. During boreal winters, anticyclonic winds rotate around the Azores High, transporting moisture to Western Europe. Variability in the size and intensity of the Azores High thus corresponds to variability in hydroclimate across Western Europe. We use the Last Millennium Ensemble (LME), which is run using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and features thirteen transient simulations covering the period 850 to 2005 A.D. with prescribed external forcing (e.g. greenhouse gas, solar, volcanic, land use, orbital, and aerosol). The LME is shown to accurately simulate the variability and trends in the Azores High when compared to observational records from the 20th century. The Azores High has grown in size during the Industrial Era. This growth is most dramatic when observing the frequency of winters during which the Azores High is extremely large. The LME shows more winters with an extremely large Azores High in the past 100 years than any other 100-year period in the last millennium. Using LME as well as other simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III, the recent expansion of the Azores High is shown to be well outside the range of natural variability since 850 A.D. Individual forcing simulations within the LME provide smaller ensembles in which only one external forcing is varied. These experiments attribute Azores High expansion to the recent increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent hydroclimatic signals across Western Europe consistent with the Azores High variability are also discussed.

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) serves as an important oceanic teleconnection for Indo-Pacific climate, altering heat and buoyancy transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. Equatorial Pacific wind forcing transmitted through the ITF impacts interannual to interdecadal Indian Ocean thermocline depth and heat content, with implications for preconditioning Indian Ocean Dipole events. Yet the modulation of Indian Ocean thermal properties at seasonal timescales is still poorly understood. Here we synthesize coral δ18O records, instrumental indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Asian Monsoon), and simulated ocean variability (sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST), heat content, mixed layer depth) from state-of-the-art NEMO ocean model hindcasts to explore drivers of seasonal to multi-decadal variability. All coral sites are located within main ITF pathways and are influenced by monsoon-driven, buoyant South China Sea (SCS) surface waters during boreal winter that obstruct surface ITF flow and reduce heat transport to the Indian Ocean. Makassar and Lombok Strait coral δ18O co-varies with simulated SSS, subsurface heat content anomalies (50-350m) and mixed layer depth at the coral sites and in the eastern Indian Ocean. At decadal timescales, simulated boreal winter ocean variability at the coral sites additionally indicates a potential intensification of the SCS buoyancy plug from the mid- to late-20th century. Notably, the variability in these coral and model responses reveals sensitivity to phase changes in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the East Asian Winter Monsoon. These results collectively suggest that the paleoproxy records are capturing important features of regional hydrography and Indo-Pacific exchange, including responses to regional monsoon variability. Such proxy-model comparison is critical for understanding the drivers of variability related to changes in ITF oceanic teleconnections over the 19th and 20th centuries.

The warming of the equatorial Pacific associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes profound impacts on rainfall and temperature in the tropics and extratropics. El Niño drives changes in the Walker and Hadley circulations, warms the tropics and affects the neighboring ocean basins, favoring a short-term rise in global temperatures. We will present an overview of the atmospheric teleconnections driven by ENSO and its diversity focusing on the impacts over land and remote ocean basins. During El Niño, dry conditions are generally observed in the Maritime Continent, northern South America, South Asia and South Africa, while wet weather typically occurs in southwestern North America, western Antarctica, and east Africa. Global effects during La Niña are overall the opposite to El Niño, however this assumption is not true for all regions. ENSO atmospheric teleconnections are non-linear in part due to different locations of the anomalous equatorial warming (Eastern versus Central Pacific events) superimposed on the Pacific mean state, as well as interactions with the annual cycle, off-equatorial regions, remote ocean basins, and other modes of climate variability. Adding to this complex behavior, ENSO teleconnections are non-stationary either due to deterministic low-frequency modulations or stochastic variability, the latter being a factor generally overlooked in the literature. As the world warms in response to greenhouse gas forcing, ENSO atmospheric teleconnections are expected to change, despite large uncertainties in ENSO projections. We will discuss the limitations of climate models in representing realistic teleconnections from the tropical Pacific to remote regions and some of the challenges for future projections.