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Population growth and rising affluence increase the demand for agricultural commodities. Associated growth in production increases dependency on natural resources in countries that attempt to meet part or all the new demand locally. This study assesses the impact of changing meat and milk production on natural resource use in Kenya under three plausible scenarios of socio-economic development, namely Business-As-Usual (BAU), Sustainable Development (SDP) and Kenya Vision 2030 (V2030) scenarios. The IMPACT model is used to develop projected livestock production parameters for meat and milk. The BAU and SDP represent standard scenarios for Kenya of a global economic model, IMPACT, while V2030 incorporates in the model features specific to Kenya’s medium-term national development plan. We use calculations of water footprint and land footprint as resource use indicators to quantify the anticipated appropriation of water and land resources for meat and milk production and trade by 2040. Though camel dairy production numbers increase the most by quadrupling between 2005 and 2040, it is cattle dairy production that significantly determined gains in production between the scenarios. Productivity gains under the SDP scenario does not match the investments made thereby leading to only slightly better values for water and land productivity than those achieved under the BAU scenario. Improvement in land productivity is the most dramatic for shoat milk production in the arid and semi-arid systems under the V2030 relative to the BAU scenario and is the least marked for milk production by cattle in the humid system under the V2030 relative to the BAU scenario. By quantifying water and land productivity across heterogenous production systems, our findings are aimed at aiding decision-makers in Kenya and other developing countries to understand the implication of strategies aimed at increasing domestic agricultural and livestock production on water and land resource both locally and through trade with other countries.

The Rural Household Multiple Indicator Survey (RHoMIS) is a standardized farm household survey approach which collects information on 758 variables covering household demographics, farm area, crops grown and their production, livestock holdings and their production, agricultural product use and variables underlying standard socio-economic and food security indicators such as the Probability of Poverty Index, the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, and household dietary diversity. These variables are used to quantify more than 40 different indicators on farm and household characteristics, welfare, productivity, and economic performance. Between 2015 and the beginning of 2018, the survey instrument was applied in 21 countries in Central America, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. The data presented here include the raw survey response data, the indicator calculation code, and the resulting indicator values. These data can be used to quantify on- and off-farm pathways to food security, diverse diets, and changes in poverty for rural smallholder farm households., Measurement(s)Demographics • cultivated environment • Household Environment • economic performanceTechnology Type(s)SurveyFactor Type(s)country • yearSample Characteristic - OrganismHomo sapiensSample Characteristic - EnvironmentfarmSample Characteristic - LocationCentral America • Sub-Saharan Africa • Asia Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11637786

Increasing demands for meat and milk in developing countries and the associated production growth are driving the expansion of agriculture at the expense of environmental conservation and other land uses. While considerable attention has been directed at improving crop yields to alleviate the pressure on land, there has been far less attention on the implications of the expected intensification of livestock production. Here, we present and analyse the land availability and land footprints of livestock intensification for five scenarios representing various degrees of intensification of meat and milk production by cattle, sheep, goats and camels in arid, semi-arid and humid production systems in Kenya. The first three scenarios are defined by increasing levels of input and management, ranging from low (scenario S1), intermediate (S2) to high (S3) input feed crop cultivation and livestock production. Reference scenario S1 has production practices and output of meat and milk similar to current production practices. In scenarios S2 and S3, the total land used for livestock production remains the same as in S1. Two additional scenarios, S4 and S5, explore opportunities for lessening environmental pressure through reduction of the land footprint of meat and milk production. For each scenario, we quantify the potential availability of grassland and cropland for meat and milk production by cattle, sheep, goats and camel in the arid, semi-arid and humid production systems. A resource use indicator, land footprint (ha), is used to assess changes in land use associated with livestock production. We estimate that the potential increase in production due to intensification from scenario S1 to S2 is 51% for milk and 71% for meat. The potential increase due to improving production from scenario S1 to S3 is 80% for milk and 113% for meat. The area of grazing land, as a percentage of the total potentially available grazing land, decreases from 10% to 6% as productivity increases from scenario S1 to S5. Cropland usage increases from 4% in scenario S1 to 11% in scenario S5. Reduced land demand in scenarios S4 and S5 indicates the possibility that intensification may help reduce the pressure on land and hence promote environmental conservation. Overall, the results suggest that it is possible to increase production to meet increasing demands for meat and milk while also gaining land for environmental conservation through intensification. Realizing the potential presented by the intensification scenarios will be contingent upon successfully establishing and operationalizing enabling policies, institutional arrangements and markets and ensuring that relevant information, services, inputs, and other essential requirements are available, accessible and affordable to herders and farmers.

Global consumption of livestock products is increasing steadily due to human population growth, poverty reduction and dietary changes raising the demand for already scarce freshwater and land resources. Here, we analyze the changes associated with direct and indirect use of freshwater and land for meat and milk production in three production systems in Kenya between the 1980s and 2000s. We use two resource use indicators, the water footprint (m3/year) and land footprint (ha), to assess changes in freshwater and land use for cattle, goats, sheep and camels in arid, semi-arid and humid production systems. We estimate actual water and land use using Kenya-wide data for yields, feed composition and feed conversion efficiencies. Our results show that the amounts of freshwater and land resources used for production are determined mainly by production volumes and feed conversion efficiencies. Total water and land footprints of milk production increased for goats, sheep and camels but decreased by half for cattle in arid and semi-arid production systems, in correspondence with similar changes in the total numbers of each livestock species. Green water and grazing land footprints dominated in all production systems due to the predominance of indirect use of water to support forage production. The per unit meat footprint for cattle increased significantly between the 1980s and 2000s in all production systems, due to adverse trends in feed conversion efficiency, while changes in the water and land footprints of other animal products were small, due to modest changes in all influencing factors. In contrast, national average footprints per unit of beef and milk show a modest decrease due to a relative shift of production to the more resource-efficient humid production system. Given the potential increase in demand for livestock products and limited freshwater and land availability, feed conversion efficiencies should be improved by rehabilitating degraded rangelands, adopting improved breeds and using appropriate feed composition

Dairy intensification is a widely used means of achieving food security, improving farmer incomes and enhancing overall economic growth. However, intensification is dependent upon the availability and suitability of natural resources to sustain growth in production. Here, land and water footprints of milk production in three contrasting agro-ecological zones ranging from humid to semi-arid across nine counties of Kenya are quantified. Water and land use footprints across three potential intensification pathways are also outlined and evaluated against the baseline scenario, the currently prevailing practices or the S1 Futures scenario, treated as the benchmark. Intensification pathways focusing on improving livestock breeds, feed provisioning and milk output per cow and distinguished by contrasting management practices perform differentially across the three agro-ecological zones. Total water and land footprints increase for all scenarios relative to the baseline scenario. In particular, all the breed improvement scenarios, have much larger total water footprints than the baseline scenario. Improvement in breed to pure bred cattle across all production systems has the largest total water footprint across all the production systems. Across all the scenarios, the largest reduction in water footprint of milk production (75%) occurs with improvement in breed and feeding practices from two scenarios in the lowlands. Milk production by the cross-bred cattle is most efficient in the lowlands system whereas milk production by the pure breed Ayrshire is most land use efficient in the midlands system. Across the three agroecological zones, improving breeds, feed provisioning and milk production per cow may achieve production intensification but concurrently exacerbates resource limitation. Consequently, the heterogeneity inherent in resource availability across dairy production zones should be considered when developing strategies for increasing dairy production.

Food consumption and production are increasingly becoming delinked due to enhanced agricultural productivity that has generated production surpluses in production areas and the globalization of trade. The environmental impact of food consumption is thus increasingly indirect, i.e. not immediately in the same place as in which the consumption takes place. Another development is the increasing fraction of animal source foods in the diet of people, adding to the indirect environmental impacts of consumption because the environmental footprint of animal products is generally larger than the footprint of the crop products they replace. This is particularly relevant in developing countries where the consumption of meat and milk is growing more rapid than in developed countries. The objective of this thesis is to explore the historic, current and future consumption and production patterns of meat and milk in Kenya and link this to an assessment of the associated water and land footprints. The research has been set-up in four subsequent studies. The first study assesses the historical trend in the water and land footprints of meat and milk production in Kenya. The second study explores the potential to meet the projected increase in demand for livestock products within the environmental boundaries. In the third study we assess the historical trends in the water footprint of meat and milk consumption in Nairobi, a rapidly growing megacity. In the fourth study we assess the future water and land footprints within a food self-sufficiency perspective. Below is a summary of the main findings of the study.

The problem: Various studies show that the developing world experiences and will continue to experience a rise in consumption of animal proteins, particularly in cities, as a result of continued urbanization and income growth. Given the relatively large water footprint (WF) of animal products, this trend is likely to increase the pressure on already scarce water resources. Aim: We estimate, analyse and interpret the changes in consumption of meat and milk between the 1980s and 2000s for three income classes in Nairobi, the ratio of domestic production to imports, and the WF (the volume of freshwater consumed) to produce these commodities in Kenya and abroad. Results: Nairobi's middle-income class grew much faster than the overall population. In addition, milk consumption per capita by the middle-income group grew faster than for the city's population as a whole. Contrary to expectation, average meat consumption per capita across all income groups in Nairobi declined by 11%. Nevertheless, total meat consumption increased by a factor 2.2 as a result of population growth, while total milk consumption grew by a factor 5. As a result, the total WF of meat consumption increased by a factor 2.3 and the total WF of milk consumption by a factor 4.2. The increase in milk consumption was met by increased domestic production, whereas the growth in meat consumption was partly met through imports and an enlargement of the footprint in the countries neighbouring Kenya. Discussion and conclusion: A likely future rise in the consumption of meat and milk in Nairobi will further enlarge the city's WF. Given Kenya's looming blue water scarcity, it is anticipated that this WF will increasingly spill over the borders of the country. Accordingly, policies aimed at meeting the rise in demand for meat and milk should consider the associated environmental constraints and the economic implications both nationally and internationally.