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Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health., This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581). Y.W and B.W. were supported by the China Scholarship Council (nos. 202006010044 and 202006010043); S.L. was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (no. APP2009866); Y.G. was supported by Career Development Fellowship (no. APP1163693) and Leader Fellowship (no. APP2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project no. 20–28560S); N.S. was supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-funded HERCULES Center (no. P30ES019776); Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF15S11412) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; M.d.S.Z.S.C. and P.H.N.S. were supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); H.O. and E.I. were supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT34–17); J.M. was supported by a fellowship of Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016); A.G. and F.S. were supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant ID MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID NE/R009384/1), and the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); A.S. and F.d.D. were supported by the EU’s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); V.H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant ID PCIN-2017–046); and A.T. by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S). Statistics South Africa kindly provided the mortality data, but had no other role in the study.

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale.

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change., We thank the participants of the ISIMIP Health workshop in Barcelona in November 2018 where this work was discussed for the first time. This study was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant no. MR/M022625/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant no. NE/R009384/1) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant no. 820655). N.S. was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan (JPMEERF15S11412). J.J.J.K.J. was supported by Academy of Finland (grant no. 310372). V.H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant no. PCIN-2017-046) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant no. 01LS1201A2). J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (grant no. 20-28560S). J.M. was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). S.R. and F.d.R. were supported by European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project EXHAUSTION (grant no. 820655). M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of SICORP, grant no. JPMJSC20E4. Y.G. was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1163693). S.L. was support by the Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1109193). Y.L.L.G. was supported by the Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST110-2918-I-002-007) as a visiting academic at the University of Sydney.

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PMFor this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/mShort-term exposure to wildfire-related PMAustralian Research Council, Australian National HealthMedical Research Council.

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Summary Background Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000–16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. Findings 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0–2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016–1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012–1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013–1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48–0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43–0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50–0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period., Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Background Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. Methods We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. Results We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the direct estimates at the municipal level. Conclusions Structured additive regression is a useful tool to provide small area estimates in a unified framework. We are able to produce valid nationwide small area estimates of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands. The results can be used for local policy makers to make appropriate health policy decisions.

Environmental noise and health studies seldom address the positive effect of environments with high acoustic quality. Sound quality, in turn, is influenced by a large number of factors, including the spatial-physical characteristics of a neighborhood. In general, these characteristics cannot be retrieved from existing databases. In this article, we describe the design of an audit instrument and demonstrate its value for gathering information about these characteristics of neighborhoods. The audit instrument used was derived from research in other fields than environmental health. The instrument was tested in 33 neighborhoods in the Dutch cities of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Arnhem. In these neighborhoods, more or less homogeneous subareas were identified that were subject of the audit. The results show that the audit approach is suitable to gather neighborhood data that are relevant for the sound quality of neighborhoods. Together with survey data, they provide information that could further the field of soundscape and health. Several suggestions for improvement of the audit instrument were made.

IntroductionThe association between long-term exposure to air pollution and increased risk of mortality has been well documented. However, less is known about the populations most susceptible to th...

IntroductionInformation on the relationship between levels of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5μm and mortality rates in Europe is relatively sparse because of limited availability of PM2.5 measurement data. Even less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM2.5–10, especially for North-West Europe.ObjectivesTo investigate the relationship between various PM size fractions and daily mortality rates.MethodsDaily concentrations of PM from the Dutch National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network as well as all cause and cause-specific mortality rates in the Netherlands were obtained for the period 2008–2009. Poisson regression analysis using generalized additive models was used, with adjustment for potential confounding including long-term and seasonal trends, influenza incidence, meteorological variables, day of the week, and holidays.Different measures of PM (PM2.5, PM10 and PM2.5–10) were analysed.ResultsPM10 and PM2.5 levels were statistically significantly (p

We studied the spatial distribution of cancer incidence rates around a large steel plant and its association with historical exposure. The study population was close to 600,000. The incidence data was collected for 1995–2006. From historical emission data the air pollution concentrations for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and metals were modelled. Data were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression models. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for lung cancer was up to 40% higher than average in postcodes located in two municipalities adjacent to the industrial area. Increased incidence rates could partly be explained by differences in socioeconomic status (SES). In the highest exposure category (approximately 45,000 inhabitants) a statistically significant increased relative risk (RR) of 1.21 (1.01–1.43) was found after adjustment for SES. The elevated RRs were similar for men and women. Additional analyses in a subsample of the population with personal smoking data from a recent survey suggested that the observed association between lung cancer and plant emission, after adjustment for SES, could still be caused by residual confounding. Therefore, we cannot indisputably conclude that past emissions from the steel plant have contributed to the increased risk of lung cancer.

Background Lyme disease (LD) has become the most common vector borne illness in the Northern hemisphere. Prevention relies predominantly on fostering protective behaviors (e.g., avoiding tick areas, using protective clothing and repellent, and doing routine tick checks post-exposure). The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness (in terms of knowledge, perceived severity and susceptibility, self-efficacy, response efficacy, intention, and behavior over time) and appreciation of a leaflet and a movie as tools for informing the public in the Netherlands about ticks and LD protective behaviors. Methods Participants (1,677 at t1 and 361 extra at t2) were members of a representative Internet panel (adults aged 18 years and above). A four group randomized controlled design was used to test the effect of an information leaflet and a movie (two intervention groups), compared to a control group and a follow-up only control group. Data were collected over two periods: July 15–29, 2013 (t1) and at follow-up 4 weeks later, August 16–31, 2013 (t2). Results Post-intervention results show all respondents in all groups possess good general basic knowledge of ticks and LD. Respondents in both the leaflet and movie groups knew more than respondents in the control group, and had greater awareness of best practices after a tick bite. Intention to perform protective behavior in future was stronger among respondents in the intervention groups. While respondents generally appreciated both the movie and the leaflet, they found the movie ran too long. Follow-up revealed no lasting positive effects from either the leaflet or the movie. Conclusions Our results suggest that both the movie and the leaflet are valued and effective intervention tools for improving knowledge about tick bites and strengthening self-efficacy and intentions to perform protective behavior against ticks and LD . Achieving lasting effects, however, calls for more action. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3146-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A major issue in air pollution epidemiology is whether the associations that are found in the statistical analyses on the health effects of air pollution reflect real causal associations of single components or mixtures thereof, or just reflect statistical associations that are mainly the result of the high correlation between the separate components, one of them being the true causal factor. In a previous analysis on the relationship between daily SO2 levels and daily mortality in The Netherlands [Buringh, E., Fischer, P., Hoek, G., 2000. Is SO2 a causative factor for the PM-associated mortality risks in The Netherlands? Inhal. Toxicol. 12 (Suppl. 1), 55–60.], it was shown that the statistical significant association between daily variation in SO2 and daily mortality did not reflect a causal relation. Black Smoke levels in The Netherlands have decreased 4-fold during the 34 years in the period 1972–2006 (annual average from 27 μg m−3 to 6 μg m−3). This large decrease in concentrations enabled us to use the same approach for this component as was done earlier for SO2 to assess whether a decreasing trend in Black Smoke levels in The Netherlands is associated with an increasing trend in mortality relative risks or not. We used daily averaged Black Smoke (BS) data from 1972 to 2006. In the first two decades (1970–1990) only sparse data were available. Based on the availability of the data, we selected data from 1972 to 1974 and from 1982 to 1984 because during these two periods continuous daily measurement series were available. For the later years (1989–2006) data covering the whole of The Netherlands were available, giving a total of 24 years of daily data. Data on daily total mortality counts (excluding external causes), cardiovascular mortality and respiratory mortality for the whole population of The Netherlands were analyzed with regard to daily Black Smoke levels using generalized additive Poisson regression models (GAM). Period specific relative risk estimates were compared and differences in estimates between periods were evaluated. We found no consistent increase in relative risks for daily total and cause-specific mortality over time, despite the decreasing trend in the Black Smoke levels in The Netherlands. Average relative risks for total mortality varied over the different periods from 0.997 per 10 μg m−3 daily Black Smoke to 1.010 per 10 μg m−3. Average relative risks for cardiovascular mortality varied from 0.988 per 10 μg m−3 to 1.010 per 10 μg m−3 and for respiratory mortality from 1.000 to 1.010 per 10 μg m−3. For weekly averaged concentrations the average relative risks for total mortality varied over the different periods from 1.004 per 10 μg m−3 Black Smoke to 1.018 per 10 μg m−3. Average relative risks for cardiovascular mortality varied from 1.003 per 10 μg m−3 to 1.016 per 10 μg m−3 and for respiratory mortality from 1.000 to 1.050 per 10 μg m−3. The result of our analyses suggests that Black Smoke cannot be excluded as a potential causal agent because relative risks over time show no increasing trend despite the decreasing trend in Black Smoke concentrations.

It has been suggested that noise exposure is associated with blood pressure changes and ischemic heart disease risk, but epidemiologic evidence is still limited. Furthermore, most reviews investigating these relations were not carried out in a systematic way, which makes them more prone to bias. We conducted a meta-analysis of 43 epidemiologic studies published between 1970 and 1999 that investigate the relation between noise exposure (both occupational and community) and blood pressure and/or ischemic heart disease (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes 410-414). We studied a wide range of effects, from blood pressure changes to a myocardial infarction. With respect to the association between noise exposure and blood pressure, small blood pressure differences were evident. Our meta-analysis showed a significant association for both occupational noise exposure and air traffic noise exposure and hypertension: We estimated relative risks per 5 dB(A) noise increase of 1.14 (1.01-1.29) and 1.26 (1.14-1.39), respectively. Air traffic noise exposure was positively associated with the consultation of a general practitioner or specialist, the use of cardiovascular medicines, and angina pectoris. In cross-sectional studies, road traffic noise exposure increases the risk of myocardial infarction and total ischemic heart disease. Although we can conclude that noise exposure can contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, the evidence for a relation between noise exposure and ischemic heart disease is still inconclusive because of the limitations in exposure characterization, adjustment for important confounders, and the occurrence of publication bias.

Background: Due to increasing urbanisation, green space in residential environments is under pressure. At the same time, there are indications that presence of green space is important for human he...

Background and aims: Information on the relationship between PM2.5 levels and mortality in Europe is sparse because of the limited PM2.5 measurement data that were available until recently. In the ...