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Abstract Although retirement ages are rising in the United Kingdom and other countries, the average number of years people in England can expect to spend both healthy and work from age 50 (Healthy Working Life Expectancy; HWLE) is less than the number of years to the State Pension age. This study aimed to estimate HWLE with the presence and absence of selected health, socio-demographic, physical activity, and workplace factors relevant to stakeholders focusing on improving work participation. Data from 11,540 adults in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were analysed using a continuous time 3-state multi-state model. Age-adjusted hazard rate ratios (aHRR) were estimated for transitions between health and work states associated with individual and combinations of health, socio-demographic, and workplace factors. HWLE from age 50 was 3.3 years fewer on average for people with pain interference (6.54 years with 95% confidence interval [6.07, 7.01]) compared to those without (9.79 [9.50, 10.08]). Osteoarthritis and mental health problems were associated with 2.2 and 2.9 fewer healthy working years respectively (HWLE for people without osteoarthritis: 9.50 years [9.22, 9.79]; HWLE with osteoarthritis: 7.29 years [6.20, 8.39]; HWLE without mental health problems: 9.76 years [9.48, 10.05]; HWLE with mental health problems: 6.87 years [1.58, 12.15]). Obesity and physical inactivity were associated with 0.9 and 2.0 fewer healthy working years respectively (HWLE without obesity: 9.31 years [9.01, 9.62]; HWLE with obesity: 8.44 years [8.02, 8.86]; HWLE without physical inactivity: 9.62 years [9.32, 9.91]; HWLE with physical inactivity: 7.67 years [7.23, 8.12]). Workers without autonomy at work or with inadequate support at work were expected to lose 1.8 and 1.7 years respectively in work with good health from age 50 (HWLE for workers with autonomy: 9.50 years [9.20, 9.79]; HWLE for workers lacking autonomy: 7.67 years [7.22, 8.12]; HWLE for workers with support: 9.52 years [9.22, 9.82]; HWLE for workers with inadequate support: 7.86 years [7.22, 8.12]). This study identified demographic, health, physical activity, and workplace factors associated with lower HWLE and life expectancy at age 50. Identifying the extent of the impact on healthy working life highlights these factors as targets and the potential to mitigate against premature work exit is encouraging to policy-makers seeking to extend working life as well as people with musculoskeletal and mental health conditions and their employers. The HWLE gaps suggest that interventions are needed to promote the health, wellbeing and work outcomes of subpopulations with long-term health conditions.

Summary: Background: We aimed to estimate healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) at age 50 years by gender, cohort, and level of education in Australia. Methods: We analysed data from two nationally representative cohorts in the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. Each cohort was followed up annually from 2001 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2020. Poor health was defined by a self-reported, limiting, long-term health condition. Work was defined by current employment status. HWLEs were estimated with Interpolated Markov Chain multi-state modelling. Findings: We included data from 4951 participants in the cohort from 2001 to 2010 (2605 [53%] women and 2346 [47%] men; age range 50–100 years) and 6589 participants in the cohort from 2011 to 2020 (3518 [53%] women and 3071 [47%] men; age range 50–100 years). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Working life expectancy increased over time for all groups, regardless of gender or educational attainment. However, health expectancies only increased for men and people of either gender with higher education. Years working in good health at age 50 years for men were 9·9 years in 2001 (95% CI 9·3–10·4) and 10·8 years (10·4–11·3) in 2011. The corresponding HWLEs for women were 7·9 years (7·3–8·5) and 9·0 years (8·5–9·6). For people with low education level, HWLE was 7·9 years (7·3–8·5) in 2001 and 8·4 years (7·9–8·9) in 2011, and for those with high education level, HWLE rose from 9·6 years in 2001 (9·1–10·1) to 10·5 years in 2011 (10·2–10·9). Across all groups, there were at least 2·5 years working in poor health and 6·7 years not working in good health. Interpretation: Increases in length of working life have not been accompanied by similar gains in healthy life expectancy for women or people of any gender with low education, and it is not unusual for workers older than 50 years to work with long-term health limitations. Strategies to achieve longer working lives should address life-course inequalities in health and encourage businesses and organisations to recruit, train, and retain mature-age workers. Funding: Australian Research Council.

Abstract Retirement ages are rising in many countries to offset the challenges of population ageing, but osteoarthritis is an age-associated disease that is becoming more prevalent and may limit capacity to work until older ages. We aimed to assess the impact of osteoarthritis on healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) by comparing HWLE for people with and without osteoarthritis from ages 50 and 65 nationally and in a local area in England. Mortality-linked data for adults aged ≥ 50 years were used from six waves (2002–13) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and from three time points of the North Staffordshire Osteoarthritis Project. HWLE was defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy (no limiting long-standing illness) and in paid work (employment or self-employment), and was estimated for people with and without osteoarthritis and by sex and occupation type using interpolated Markov chain multi-state modelling. HWLE from age 50 years was a third lower for people with osteoarthritis compared to people without osteoarthritis both nationally (5.68 95% CI [5.29, 6.07] years compared to 10.00 [9.74, 10.26]) and in North Staffordshire (4.31 [3.68, 4.94] years compared to 6.90 [6.57, 7.24]). HWLE from age 65 years for self-employed people with osteoarthritis exceeded HWLE for people without osteoarthritis in manual or non-manual occupations. Osteoarthritis was associated with a significantly shorter HWLE. People with osteoarthritis are likely to have significantly impaired working ability and capacity to work until older ages, especially in regions with poorer health and work outcomes.

BackgroundMobility disability is predictive of further functional decline and can itself compromise older people's capacity (and preference) to live independently. The world's population is also ageing, and multimorbidity is the norm in those aged ≥85. What is unclear in this age group, is the influence of multimorbidity on (a) transitions in mobility disability and (b) mobility disability-free life expectancy (mobDFLE).Methods and findingsUsing multistate modelling in an inception cohort of 714 85-year-olds followed over a 10-year period (aged 85 in 2006 to 95 in 2016), we investigated the association between increasing numbers of long-term conditions and (1) mobility disability incidence, (2) recovery from mobility disability and (3) death, and then explored how this shaped the remaining life expectancy free from mobility disability at age 85. Models were adjusted for age, sex, disease group count, BMI and education. We defined mobility disability based on participants' self-reported ability to get around the house, go up and down stairs/steps, and walk at least 400 yards; participants were defined as having mobility disability if, for one or more these activities, they had any difficulty with them or could not perform them. Data were drawn from the Newcastle 85+ Study: a longitudinal population-based cohort study that recruited community-dwelling and institutionalised individuals from Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside general practices. We observed that each additional disease was associated with a 16% increased risk of incident mobility disability (hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07 to 1.25, p < 0.001), a 26% decrease in the chance of recovery from this state (HR 0.74, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.86, p < 0.001), and a 12% increased risk of death with mobility disability (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.07- to .17, p < 0.001). This translated to reductions in mobDFLE with increasing numbers of long-term conditions. However, residual and unmeasured confounding cannot be excluded from these analyses, and there may have been unobserved transitions to/from mobility disability between interviews and prior to death.ConclusionsWe suggest 2 implications from this work. (1) Our findings support calls for a greater focus on the prevention of multimorbidity as populations age. (2) As more time spent with mobility disability could potentially lead to greater care needs, maintaining independence with increasing age should also be a key focus for health/social care and reablement services.

Abstract Background and objectives Nutritional deficiencies, renal impairment and chronic inflammation are commonly mentioned determinants of anaemia. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of these determinants, singly and in combination, on anaemia in the very old. Method The TULIPS Consortium consists of four population-based studies in oldest-old individuals: Leiden 85-plus Study, LiLACS NZ, Newcastle 85+ study, and TOOTH. Five selected determinants (iron, vitamin B12, and folate deficiency; low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); and high C-reactive protein (CRP)) were summed. This sum score was used to investigate the association with the presence and onset of anaemia (WHO definition). The individual study results were pooled using random-effects models. Results In the 2216 participants (59% female, 30% anaemia) at baseline, iron deficiency, low eGFR and high CRP were individually associated with the presence of anaemia. Low eGFR and high CRP were individually associated with the onset of anaemia. In the cross-sectional analyses, an increase per additional determinant (adjusted OR 2.10 (95% CI 1.85–2.38)) and a combination of ≥2 determinants (OR 3.44 (95% CI 2.70–4.38)) were associated with the presence of anaemia. In the prospective analyses, an increase per additional determinant (adjusted HR 1.46 (95% CI 1.24–1.71)) and the presence of ≥2 determinants (HR 1.95 (95% CI 1.40–2.71)) were associated with the onset of anaemia. Conclusion Very old adults with a combination of determinants of anaemia have a higher risk of having, and of developing, anaemia. Further research is recommended to explore causality and clinical relevance.

Objectives: Low education and unhealthy lifestyle factors such as obesity, smoking, and no exercise are modifiable risk factors for disability and premature mortality. We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of these factors on disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and total life expectancy (TLE).Methods: Data (n = 22,304) were from two birth cohorts (1921–26 and 1946–51) of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health and linked National Death Index between 1996 and 2016. Discrete-time multi-state Markov models were used to assess the impact on DFLE and TLE.Results: Compared to the most favourable combination of education and lifestyle factors, the least favourable combination (low education, obesity, current/past smoker, and no exercise) was associated with a loss of 5.0 years TLE, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 3.2–6.8 and 6.4 years DFLE (95%CI: 4.8–7.8) at age 70 in the 1921–26 cohort. Corresponding losses in the 1946–51 cohort almost doubled (TLE: 11.0 years and DFLE: 13.0 years).Conclusion: Individual or co-ocurrance of lifestyle risk factors were associated with a significant loss of DFLE, with a greater loss in low-educated women and those in the 1946–51 cohort.

Summary: Background: There is a need to know how changes in health expectancy differ for population subgroups globally. The aim of this study was to estimate 10-year trends in health expectancies by individual markers of socioeconomic position from three points over the lifecourse, evaluating how compression and expansion of morbidity have varied within a national population. Methods: We analysed data from two cohorts of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. The cohorts were followed annually from 2001 to 2007 (n=4720; baseline age range 50–100 years) and 2011 to 2017 (n=6632; baseline age range 50–99 years). Health expectancies were estimated at age 65 years for four outcomes reflecting activity limitations, disability, perceived health, and mental health. Cohort differences were compared by gender, age left school, occupational prestige, and housing tenure. Findings: Women with low socioeconomic position were the only group with no improvements in life expectancy across the two cohorts. Among men with low education and all women gains in life expectancy comprised entirely of years lived with global activity limitations. Compression of years lived with severe-disability, poor self-rated health, and poor mental health was most consistently observed for men and women with high education and home ownership. Occupational prestige did not greatly differentiate cohort differences in health expectancies. Interpretation: Over the past two decades in Australia, social disparities in health expectancies have at least been maintained, and have increased for some outcomes. Equitable gains in health expectancies should be a major public health goal, and will help support sustainable health and social care systems. Funding: Australian Research Council.

Background Previous research has examined the improvements in healthy years if different health conditions are eliminated, but often with cross-sectional data, or for a limited number of conditions. We used longitudinal data to estimate disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) trends for older people with a broad number of health conditions, identify the conditions that would result in the greatest improvement in DFLE, and describe the contribution of the underlying transitions. Methods and findings The Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and II) are both large population-based studies of those aged 65 years or over in England with identical sampling strategies (CFAS I response 81.7%, N = 7,635; CFAS II response 54.7%, N = 7,762). CFAS I baseline interviews were conducted in 1991 to 1993 and CFAS II baseline interviews in 2008 to 2011, both with 2 years of follow-up. Disability was measured using the modified Townsend activities of daily living scale. Long-term conditions (LTCs—arthritis, cognitive impairment, coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes, hearing difficulties, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), respiratory difficulties, stroke, and vision impairment) were self-reported. Multistate models estimated life expectancy (LE) and DFLE, stratified by sex and study and adjusted for age. DFLE was estimated from the transitions between disability-free and disability states at the baseline and 2-year follow-up interviews, and LE was estimated from mortality transitions up to 4.5 years after baseline. In CFAS I, 60.8% were women and average age was 75.6 years; in CFAS II, 56.1% were women and average age was 76.4 years. Cognitive impairment was the only LTC whose prevalence decreased over time (odds ratio: 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5 to 0.6, p < 0.001), and where the percentage of remaining years at age 65 years spent disability-free decreased for men (difference CFAS II–CFAS I: −3.6%, 95% CI: −8.2 to 1.0, p = 0.12) and women (difference CFAS II–CFAS I: −3.9%, 95% CI: −7.6 to 0.0, p = 0.04) with the LTC. For men and women with any other LTC, DFLE improved or remained similar. For women with CHD, years with disability decreased (−0.8 years, 95% CI: −3.1 to 1.6, p = 0.50) and DFLE increased (2.7 years, 95% CI: 0.7 to 4.7, p = 0.008), stemming from a reduction in the risk of incident disability (relative risk ratio: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4 to 0.8, p = 0.004). The main limitations of the study were the self-report of health conditions and the response rate. However, inverse probability weights for baseline nonresponse and longitudinal attrition were used to ensure population representativeness. Conclusions In this study, we observed improvements to DFLE between 1991 and 2011 despite the presence of most health conditions we considered. Attention needs to be paid to support and care for people with cognitive impairment who had different outcomes to those with physical health conditions. Holly Bennett and colleagues investigate trends in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy between 1991 and 2011 for adults age 65 years or older with long term health conditions using data from two population-based studies in England. Author summary Why was this study done? There have been many advances in healthcare since the 1990s, which means many people with health conditions are living longer lives. We wanted to find out whether the extension to life for those with health conditions involves an increase in healthy or unhealthy years. What did the researchers do and find? We used information from 2 large studies of people aged 65 years and over, the first began in 1991 and the second began in 2011. We estimated how many years people with different health conditions would live with or without disability in 2011 compared to 1991. We found improvements for people with most health conditions, with the exception of cognitive impairment where the increase in years lived with disability were equal (men) or greater than (women) the improvement in years lived without disability. What do these findings mean? In the UK, the percentage of people with cognitive impairment has decreased over time. However, if people with cognitive impairment are now living longer with disability than before, this may not mean that the demand for services and care will decrease.

Abstract Background Lower protein intake in older adults is associated with loss of muscle mass and strength. The present study aimed to provide a pooled estimate of the overall prevalence of protein intake below recommended (according to different cut‐off values) among community‐dwelling older adults, both within the general older population and within specific subgroups. Methods As part of the PRevention Of Malnutrition In Senior Subjects in the EU (PROMISS) project, a meta‐analysis was performed using data from four cohorts (from the Netherlands, UK, Canada, and USA) and four national surveys [from the Netherlands, Finland (two), and Italy]. Within those studies, data on protein and energy intake of community‐dwelling men and women aged ≥55 years were obtained by either a food frequency questionnaire, 24 h recalls administered on 2 or 3 days, or food diaries administered on 3 days. Protein intake below recommended was based on the recommended dietary allowance of 0.8 g/kg body weight (BW)/d, by using adjusted BW (aBW) instead of actual BW. Cut‐off values of 1.0 and 1.2 were applied in additional analyses. Prevalences were also examined for subgroups according to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), education level, appetite, living status, and recent weight loss. Results The study sample comprised 8107 older persons. Mean ± standard deviation protein intake ranged from 64.3 ± 22.3 (UK) to 80.6 ± 23.7 g/d [the Netherlands (cohort)] or from 0.94 ± 0.38 (USA) to 1.17z ± 0.30 g/kg aBW/d (Italy) when related to BW. The overall pooled prevalence of protein intake below recommended was 21.5% (95% confidence interval: 14.0–30.1), 46.7% (38.3–55.3), and 70.8% (65.1–76.3) using the 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2 cut‐off value, respectively. A higher prevalence was observed among women, individuals with higher BMI, and individuals with poor appetite. The prevalence differed only marginally by age, education level, living status, and recent weight loss. Conclusions In community‐dwelling older adults, the prevalence of protein intake below the current recommendation of 0.8 g/kg aBW/d is substantial (14–30%) and increases to 65–76% according to a cut‐off value of 1.2 g/kg aBW/d. To what extent the protein intakes are below the requirements of these older people warrants further investigation.

Although leading causes of death are regularly reported, there is disagreement on which long-term conditions (LTCs) reduce disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) the most. We aimed to estimate increases in DFLE associated with elimination of a range of LTCs. This is a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing the effects of LTCs on health expectancy (HE). MEDLINE, Embase, HMIC, Science Citation Index, and Social Science Citation Index were systematically searched for studies published in English from July 2007 to July 2020 with updated searches from inception to April 8, 2021. LTCs considered included: arthritis, diabetes, cardiovascular disease including stroke and peripheral vascular disease, respiratory disease, visual and hearing impairment, dementia, cognitive impairment, depression, cancer, and comorbidity. Studies were included if they estimated HE outcomes (disability-free, active or healthy life expectancy) at age 50 or older for individuals with and without the LTC. Study selection and quality assessment were undertaken by teams of independent reviewers. Meta-analysis was feasible if three or more studies assessed the impact of the same LTC on the same HE at the same age using comparable methods, with narrative syntheses for the remaining studies. Studies reporting Years of Life Lost (YLL), Years of Life with Disability (YLD) and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs = YLL+YLD) were included but reported separately as incomparable with other HE outcomes (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020196049). Searches returned 6072 unique records, yielding 404 eligible for full text retrieval from which 30 DFLE-related and 7 DALY-related were eligible for inclusion. Thirteen studies reported a single condition, and 17 studies reported on more than one condition (two to nine LTCs). Only seven studies examined the impact of comorbidities. Random effects meta-analyses were feasible for a subgroup of studies examining diabetes (four studies) or respiratory diseases (three studies) on DFLE. From pooled results, individuals at age 65 without diabetes gain on average 2.28 years disability-free compared to those with diabetes (95% CI: 0.57-3.99, p

ObjectivesTo quantify the burnout and spiritual health of general practitioners (GPs) in the United Kingdom (UK) who worked during the Covid-19 Pandemic.DesignOnline survey, April/May 2021, distributed via emails to general practices, Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs), Health boards, Clinical Research Networks, professional groups, social media GP groups and networks.SettingUnited Kingdom.Participants1318 GPs who had worked in the National Health Service (NHS) during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 -May 2021).Main outcome measuresBurnout scores, measured by the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) for Medical Personnel; spiritual health, measured using the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual Well-Being, Non-Illness (FACIT-SP-NI).Results19% of surveyed GPs were at the highest risk for burnout, using accepted MBI 'cut off' levels. There was no evidence of a difference in burnout by gender, ethnicity, or length of service. GP burnout was associated with GP spiritual health, regardless of identification with a religion. GPs with low spiritual health were five times more likely to be in the highest risk group for burnout.ConclusionsBurnout is at crisis levels amongst GPs in the UK NHS. A comprehensive response is required, identifying protective and precipitating factors for burnout. The potentially protective impact of spiritual health merits further investigation.

Background: Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) inequalities by socioeconomic deprivation are widening, alongside rising prevalence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs). We use longitudinal data to assess whether MLTCs contribute to the widening DFLE inequalities by socioeconomic deprivation. Methods: The Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and II) are large population-based studies of those ≥65 years, conducted in three areas in England. Baseline occurred in 1991 (CFAS I, n=7635) and 2011 (CFAS II, n=7762) with two-year follow-up. We defined disability as difficulty in activities of daily living, MLTCs as the presence of at least two of nine health conditions, and socioeconomic deprivation by area-level deprivation tertiles. DFLE and transitions between disability states and death were estimated from multistate models. Findings: For people with MLTCs, inequalities in DFLE at age 65 between the most and least affluent widened to around 2.5 years (men:2.4 years, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.4–4.4; women:2.6 years, 95%CI 0.7–4.5) by 2011. Incident disability reduced for the most affluent women (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR):0.6, 95%CI 0.4–0.9), and mortality with disability reduced for least affluent men (RRR:0.6, 95%CI 0.5–0.8). MLTCs prevalence increased only for least affluent men (1991: 58.8%, 2011: 66.9%) and women (1991: 60.9%, 2011: 69.1%). However, DFLE inequalities were as large in people without MLTCs (men:2.4 years, 95%CI 0.3–4.5; women:3.1 years, 95% CI 0.8–5.4). Interpretation: Widening DFLE inequalities were not solely due to MLTCs. Reduced disability incidence with MLTCs is possible but was only achieved in the most affluent. Funding: This work was supported by the Dunhill Medical Trust. CFAS II was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC; research grant G0601022), Alzheimer's Society Grant Ref: 294, and received support from the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) comprehensive clinical research networks in West Anglia and Trent, and the Dementias and Neurodegenerative Disease Research Network in Newcastle. HB is supported by the Dunhill Medical Trust (grant number RPGF1806/44), and AK by a Newcastle University Research Fellowship. This research was undertaken within the UK NIHR collaboration for leadership in applied health research and care for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and the Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre infrastructures, Nottingham city and Nottinghamshire county NHS primary care trusts, and UK NIHR Policy Research Programme, conducted through the NIHR Older People and Frailty Policy Research Unit, PR-PRU-1217-21502.

Background In the UK, doctors’ regulatory and professional bodies require general practitioners (GPs) to consider discussing spiritual health as part of the consultation. However, spiritual health is not defined in guidance, and it is unknown what individual doctors understand by the term.Research question What do GPs understand by the term ‘spiritual health’?Aim To explore how GPs understand and define spiritual health.Design and setting Survey of GPs in England 9 April 2019–21 May 2019.Method A mixed-methods online survey asked practising GPs in England qualitative free text questions—‘What does the term ‘Spiritual Health’ mean to you?’ and ‘Any comments?’ after five vignettes about discussing spiritual health with patients. These were subject to thematic analysis using a priori themes from the literature on GP definitions of spiritual health, and on attitudes towards the topic.Participants 177 practising GPs in England.Results 177 GPs responded to the survey. Understanding of spiritual health fitted into three themes: self-actualisation and meaning, transcendence and relationships beyond the self, and expressions of spirituality. A full range of views were expressed, from a minority who challenged their role in spiritual health, through to others enthusiastic about its place in healthcare.Conclusion Spirituality and religiosity are understood by English GPs to be distinct concepts. A consensus definition of spiritual health incorporating the themes identified by working doctors, may be helpful to support GPs to follow the recommended guidance in their practice.

Genome-wide association studies have only revealed a handful of genetic loci for longevity. Here, in a case–control design based on phenotype definitions of individuals surviving at or beyond the age corresponding to the 90th and 99th survival percentile, the authors report two additional loci located in the APOE locus and near GPR78.

Objectives A clear understanding of whether increases in longevity are spent in good health is necessary to support ageing, health and care-related policy.Design We conducted a systematic review to update and summarise evidence on trends in health expectancies, in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) high-income countries.Data sources Four electronic databases (MEDLINE, 1946–19 September 2019; Embase 1980–2019 week 38; Scopus 1966–22 September 2019, Health Management Information Consortium, 1979–September 2019), and the UK Office for National Statistics website (November 2019).Eligibility criteria English language studies published from 2016 that reported trends in healthy, active and/or disability-free life expectancy in an OECD high-income country.Data extraction and synthesis Records were screened independently by two researchers. Study quality was assessed using published criteria designed to identify sources of bias in studies reporting trends, and evidence summarised by narrative synthesis.Findings Twenty-eight publications from 11 countries were included, covering periods from 6 to 40 years, between 1970 and 2017. In most countries, gains in healthy and disability-free life expectancy do not match the growth in total life expectancy. Exceptions were demonstrated for women in Sweden, where there were greater gains in disability-free years than life expectancy. Gains in healthy and disability-free life expectancy were greater for men than women in most countries except the USA (age 85), Japan (birth), Korea (age 65) and Sweden (age 77).Conclusion An expansion of disability in later life is evident in a number of high-income countries, with implications for the sustainability of health and care systems. The recent COVID-19 pandemic may also impact health expectancies in the longer term.

Background: As society ages, promoting the health of the extra years of life is of paramount importance for health, social care and pension provision. Increases in life expectancy in the UK and elsewhere have slowed in recent years, but the reasons for this are unclear. No formal comparison of trends in healthy life years between the UK and the other countries of the EU28 in recent times has been published. These countries are geographically proximate, and share many social, cultural and demographic properties, making them interesting and useful comparators, especially as the UK prepared to leave the European Union in 2020. Methods: We calculated sex-specific healthy life years (HLY), unhealthy life years (ULY), mild and severe ULY at birth and age 65 using life tables and age-specific prevalence of activity limitation amongst the EU28 between 2008 and 2016 from EuroHex. Trends in life expectancy, HLY, ULY and proportion of life spent healthy (HLY%) were compared. We then decomposed HLY temporal changes into relative effects of changes in healthy life and mortality, by age group. Findings: Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011. Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. HLY at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU28 countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both sexes. The reduction in HLY at birth in the UK was mainly attributable to increases in unhealthy life in younger age groups. Interpretation: The UK's performance relative to the other countries of the EU28 was poor after 2011, combining static life expectancy and reductions in healthy life years. These trends suggest that the UK government's Ageing Society Grand Challenge (to increase the healthy life expectancy by five years by 2035) will be difficult to attain. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme conducted through the NIHR Older People and Frailty Policy Research Unit, PR-PRU-1217-21502. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Summary: Background: Retirement ages are rising in many countries to offset the challenges of population ageing, but people's capacity to work for more years in their later working life (>50 years) is unclear. We aimed to estimate healthy working life expectancy in England. Methods: This analysis included adults aged 50 years and older from six waves (2002–13) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), with linked mortality data. Healthy working life expectancy was defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy (no limiting long-standing illness) and in paid work (employment or self-employment) from age 50 years. Healthy working life expectancy was estimated for England overall and stratified by sex, educational attainment, deprivation level, occupation type, and region by use of interpolated Markov chain multi-state modelling. Findings: There were 15 284 respondents (7025 men and 8259 women) with survey and mortality data for the study period. Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 years was on average 9·42 years (10·94 years [95% CI 10·65–11·23] for men and 8·25 years [7·92–8·58] for women) and life expectancy was 31·76 years (30·05 years for men and 33·49 years for women). The number of years expected to be spent unhealthy and in work from age 50 years was 1·84 years (95% CI 1·74–1·94) in England overall. Population subgroups with the longest healthy working life expectancy were the self-employed (11·76 years [95% CI 10·76–12·76]) or those with non-manual occupations (10·32 years [9·95–10·69]), those with a tertiary education (11·27 years [10·74–11·80]), those living in southern England (10·73 years [10·16–11·30] in the South East and 10·51 years [9·80–11·22] in the South West), and those living in the least deprived areas (10·53 years [10·06–10·99]). Interpretation: Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 years in England is below the remaining years to State Pension age. Older workers of lower socioeconomic status and in particular regions in England might benefit from proactive approaches to improve health, workplace environments, and job opportunities to improve their healthy working life expectancy. Continued monitoring of healthy working life expectancy would provide further examination of the success of such approaches and that of policies to extend working lives. Funding: Economic and Social Research Council.

Physical activity and protein intake are associated with ageing-related outcomes, including loss of muscle strength and functional decline, so may contribute to strategies to improve healthy ageing. We investigated the cross-sectional associations between physical activity or sedentary behaviour and protein intake patterns in community-dwelling older adults across five countries. Self-reported physical activity and dietary intake data were obtained from two cohort studies (Newcastle 85+ Study, UK; LiLACS, New Zealand Māori and Non-Māori) and three national food consumption surveys (DNFCS, The Netherlands; FINDIET, Finland; INRAN-SCAI, Italy). Associations between physical activity and total protein intake, number of eating occasions providing protein, number of meals with specified protein thresholds, and protein intake distribution over the day (calculated as a coefficient of variance) were assessed by regression and repeated measures ANOVA models adjusting for covariates. Greater physical activity was associated with higher total protein intake and more eating occasions containing protein, although associations were mostly explained by higher energy intake. Comparable associations were observed for sedentary behaviour in older adults in Italy. Evidence for older people with higher physical activity or less sedentary behaviour achieving more meals with specified protein levels was mixed across the five countries. A skewed protein distribution was observed, with most protein consumed at midday and evening meals without significant differences between physical activity or sedentary behaviour levels. Findings from this multi-study analysis indicate there is little evidence that total protein and protein intake patterns, irrespective of energy intake, differ by physical activity or sedentary behaviour levels in older adults.

Persistent population aging worldwide is focusing attention on modifiable factors that can improve later life health. There is evidence that religiosity and spirituality are among such factors. Older people tend to have high rates of involvement in religious and/or spiritual endeavors and it is possible that population aging will be associated with increasing prevalence of religious and spiritual activity worldwide. Despite increasing research on religiosity, spirituality and health among older persons, population aging worldwide suggests the need for a globally integrated approach. As a step toward this, we review a subset of the literature on the impact of religiosity and spirituality on health in later life. We find that much of this has looked at the relationship between religiosity/spirituality and longevity as well as physical and mental health. Mechanisms include social support, health behaviors, stress and psychosocial factors. We identify a number of gaps in current knowledge. Many previous studies have taken place in the U.S. and Europe. Much data is cross-sectional, limiting ability to make causal inference. Religiosity and spirituality can be difficult to define and distinguish and the two concepts are often considered together, though on balance religiosity has received more attention than spirituality. The latter may however be equally important. Although there is evidence that religiosity is associated with longer life and better physical and mental health, these outcomes have been investigated separately rather than together such as in measures of health expectancy. In conclusion, there is a need for a unified and nuanced approach to understanding how religiosity and spirituality impact on health and longevity within a context of global aging, in particular whether they result in longer healthy life rather than just longer life. Keywords: Aging, Global aging, Health expectancy, Older adults, Mindfulness, Mortality, Religion, Spirituality

The objective of this paper is to understand global connections between indicators of religiosity and health and how these differ cross-nationally. Data are from World Values Surveys (93 countries, N=121,770). Health is based on a self-assessed question about overall health. First, country-specific regressions are examined to determine the association separately in each country. Next, country-level variables and cross-level interactions are added to multilevel models to assess whether and how context affects health and religiosity slopes. Results indicate enormous variation in associations between religiosity and health across countries and religiosity indicators. Significant positive associations between all religiosity measures and health exist in only three countries (Georgia, South Africa, and USA); negative associations in only two (Slovenia and Tunisia). Macro-level variables explain some of this divergence. Greater participation in religious activity relates to better health in countries characterized as being religiously diverse. The importance in god and pondering life’s meaning is more likely associated with better health in countries with low levels of the Human Development Index. Pondering life’s meaning more likely associates with better health in countries that place more stringent restrictions on religious practice. Religiosity is less likely to be related to good health in communist and former communist countries of Asia and Eastern Europe. In conclusion, the association between religiosity and health is complex, being partly shaped by geopolitical and macro psychosocial contexts. Keywords: Comparative research, International, Multi-level modeling, Population health, Religion, Religious diversity, Self-assessed health

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22613-2

Background: Low vitamin D status is common in very old adults which may have adverse consequences for muscle function, a major predictor of disability. Aims: To explore the association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations and disability trajectories in very old adults and to determine whether there is an ‘adequate’ 25(OH)D concentration which might protect against a faster disability trajectory. Methodology: A total of 775 participants from the Newcastle 85+ Study for who 25(OH)D concentration at baseline was available. Serum 25(OH)D concentrations of 50 nmol/L were used as cut-offs to define low, moderate and high vitamin D status, respectively. Disability was defined as difficulty in performing 17 activities of daily living, at baseline, after 18, 36 and 60 months. Results: A three-trajectory model was derived (low-to-mild, mild-to-moderate and moderate-to-severe). In partially adjusted models, participants with 25(OH)D concentrations Conclusions: Vitamin D status does not appear to influence the trajectories of disability in very old adults.

Background: Selenium is a trace element essential for health. Severe selenium deficiencies are associated with poor musculoskeletal (MSK) function. However, the effects of moderate deficiency on MSK function, especially in older adults, is unclear. Objectives: To determine the associations between selenium intake and MSK function in very old adults. Methods: Selenium intake at baseline and, hand-grip strength (HGS) and timed-up-and-go (TUG) at four phases over 5 years, were available in 791 participants in the Newcastle 85+ Study, a community-based, longitudinal cohort of ≥ 85 year old individuals. We investigated relationships between selenium intake and HGS and TUG in cross-sectional analyses at baseline using multivariate analyses and, prospectively using linear mixed models to explore HGS and TUG changes over 5 years in association with baseline selenium intake. Results: At baseline, 53% of participants had selenium intakes that were classified as low. These individuals had 2.80 kg lower HGS and were 2.30 s slower performing the TUG, cross-sectionally. In multivariate, baseline analyses, selenium intake had no significant impact on HGS or TUG. Selenium intake had no significant effect on MSK function, prospectively. Conclusion: Low selenium intake is common among very old adults and, in cross-sectional analyses, is associated with poorer MSK function.

Summary: Background: Existing models for forecasting future care needs are limited in the risk factors included and in the assumptions made about incoming cohorts. We estimated the numbers of people aged 65 years or older in England and the years lived in older age requiring care at different intensities between 2015 and 2035 from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model. Methods: PACSim, a dynamic microsimulation model, combined three studies (Understanding Society, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II) to simulate individuals' sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, 12 chronic diseases and geriatric conditions, and dependency (categorised as high [24-h care], medium [daily care], or low [less than daily] dependency; or independent). Transition probabilities for each characteristic were estimated by modelling state changes from baseline to 2-year follow-up. Years in dependency states were calculated by Sullivan's method. Findings: Between 2015 and 2035 in England, both the prevalence of and numbers of people with dependency will fall for young-old adults (65–74 years). For very old adults (≥85 years), numbers with low dependency will increase by 148·0% (range from ten simulations 140·0–152·0) and with high dependency will almost double (increase of 91·8%, range 87·3–94·1) although prevalence will change little. Older adults with medium or high dependency and dementia will be more likely to have at least two other concurrent conditions (increasing from 58·8% in 2015 to 81·2% in 2035). Men aged 65 years will see a compression of dependency with 4·2 years (range 3·9–4·2) of independence gained compared with life expectancy gains of 3·5 years (3·1–4·1). Women aged 65 years will experience an expansion of mainly low dependency, with 3·0 years (3·0–3·6) gained in life expectancy compared with 1·4 years (1·2–1·4) with low dependency and 0·7 years (0·6–0·8) with high dependency. Interpretation: In the next 20 years, the English population aged 65 years or over will see increases in the number of individuals who are independent but also in those with complex care needs. This increase is due to more individuals reaching 85 years or older who have higher levels of dependency, dementia, and comorbidity. Health and social care services must adapt to the complex care needs of an increasing older population. Funding: UK Economic and Social Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research.

BackgroundWeak grip strength (GS) is a key component of sarcopenia and frailty and a powerful predictor of mortality, morbidity and disability. Despite increasing interest in understanding GS across the lifespan, little is known about GS decline in the very old (aged ≥85). We examined trajectories of GS in very old adults and identified the determinants.MethodsGS (kg) was measured four times over 5 years in 319 men and 526 women participating in the Newcastle 85+ Study. A weak GS sub-cohort was identified as having strength of ≤27 kg (men), and ≤16 kg (women) at baseline and follow-up. Mixed models were used to establish trajectories of GS and associated factors in all participants, men and women, and in those with weak GS.ResultsMen's mean grip strength was 24.42 (SD = 6.77) kg, and women's 13.23 (4.42) kg (pConclusionGrip strength decline in the very old followed linear (men) and curvilinear (women) trends. High levels of physical activity were protective of GS loss in men (but not in women) and in those with weak GS. Thus maintaining muscle strength in later life is important to reduce the morbidity and mortality in the very old.

BackgroundHealthy diet has been associated with better muscle strength and physical performance in cross-sectional studies of older adults but the effect of dietary patterns (DP) on subsequent decline, particularly in the very old (aged 85+), has not been determined.ObjectiveWe investigated the association between previously established DP and decline in muscle strength and physical performance in the very old.Design791 participants (61.8% women) from the Newcastle 85+ Study were followed-up for change in hand grip strength (HGS) and Timed Up-and Go (TUG) test over 5 years (four waves 1.5 years apart). Mixed models were used to determine the effects of DP on muscle strength and physical performance in the entire cohort and separately by sex.ResultsPreviously we have established three DP that varied in intake of red meats, potato, gravy and butter and differed with key health and social factors. HGS declined linearly by 1.59 kgF in men and 1.08 kgF in women (both pConclusionsDP high in red meats, potato and gravy (DP1), or butter (DP3) may adversely affect muscle strength and physical performance in later life, independently of important covariates and cognitive status.

OBJECTIVES:To examine gender and regional differences in health expectancies based on the measure of mobility. METHODS:Health expectancies by gender and region were computed by Sullivan's method from the fourth Thai National Health Examination Survey (2009). A total of 9,210 older persons aged 60 years and older were included. Mobility limitation was defined as self-reporting of ability to perform only with assistances/aids at least one of: walking at least 400 metres; or going up or down a flight of 10 stairs. Severe limitation was defined as complete inability to do at least one of these two functions, even with assistances or aids. RESULTS:At age 60, females compared to males, spent significantly fewer years without mobility limitation (male-female = 3.2 years) and more years with any limitation (female-male = 6.7 years) and with severe limitation (female-male = 3.2 years). For both genders, years lived with severe limitation were remarkably constant across age. Significant regional inequalities in years lived without and with limitation were evident, with a consistent pattern by gender in years free of mobility limitation (Central ranked the best and the North East ranked the worst). Finally, both males and females in the South had the longest life expectancy and the most years of life with severe mobility limitation. CONCLUSION:This study identifies inequalities in years without and with mobility limitations with important policy implication.

BACKGROUND:There have been fundamental shifts in the attitude towards, access to and nature of long term care in high income countries. The proportion and profile of the older population living in such settings varies according to social, cultural, and economic characteristics as well as governmental policies. Changes in the profiles of people in different settings are important for policy makers and care providers. Although details will differ, how change occurs across time is important to all, including lower and middle income countries developing policies themselves. Here change is examined across two decades in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Using the two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I: 77% response, CFAS II: 56% response), two population based studies of older people carried out in the same areas conducted two decades apart, the study diagnosis of dementia using the Automated Geriatric Examination for Computer Assisted Taxonomy, health and wellbeing were examined, focusing on long term care. The proportion of individuals with three or more health conditions increased for everyone living in long term care between CFAS I (47.6%, 95% CI: 42.3-53.1) and CFAS II (62.7%, 95% CI: 54.8-70.0) and was consistently higher in those without dementia compared to those with dementia in both studies. Functional impairment measured by activities of daily living increased in assisted living facilities from 48% (95% CI: 44%-52%) to 67% (95% CI: 62%-71%). CONCLUSIONS:Health profiles of residents in long term care have changed dramatically over time. Dementia prevalence and reporting multiple health conditions have increased. Receiving care in the community puts pressure on unpaid carers and formal services; these results have implications for policies about supporting people at home as well as for service provision within long term care including quality of care, health management, cost, and the development of a skilled, caring, and informed workforce.

The population of older adults aged 85 years and over (the very old) is growing rapidly in many societies because of increases in life expectancy and reduced mortality at older ages. In 2016, 27.3 million very old adults were living in the European Union, and in the UK, 2.4% of the population (1.6 million) were aged 85 and over. Very old age is associated with increased risks of malnutrition, multimorbidity, and disability. Diet (nutrition) is a modifiable risk factor for multiple age-related conditions, including sarcopenia and functional decline. Dietary characteristics and nutrient intakes of the very old have been investigated in several European studies of ageing to better understand their nutritional requirements, which may differ from those in the young-old. However, there is a major gap in regard to evidence for the role of dietary patterns, protein, vitamin D and other nutrients for the maintenance of physical and cognitive functioning in later life. The Newcastle 85+ Study, UK and the Life and Living in Advanced Age, New Zealand are unique studies involving single birth cohorts which aim to assess health trajectories in very old adults and their biological, social and environmental influences, including nutrition. In this review, we have updated the latest findings in nutritional epidemiology with results from these studies, concentrating on the diet–physical functioning relationship.

ObjectivesTo estimate health expectancies based on measures that more fully cover the stages in the disablement process for the older Thais and examine gender differences in these health expectancies.MethodsHealth expectancies by genders using Sullivan's method were computed from the fourth Thai National Health Examination Survey conducted in 2009. A total of 9,210 participants aged 60 years and older were included in the analysis. Health measures included chronic diseases; cognitive impairment; depression; disability in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL); and disability in activities of daily living (ADL).ResultsThe average number of years lived with and without morbidity and disability as measured by multiple dimensions of health varied and gender differences were not consistent across measures. At age 60, males could expect to live the most years on average free of depression (18.6 years) and ADL disability (18.6 years) and the least years free of chronic diseases (9.1 years). Females, on the contrary, could expect to live the most years free of ADL disability (21.7 years) and the least years free of IADL disability (8.1 years), and they consistently spent more years with all forms of morbidity and disability. Finally, and for both genders, years lived with cognitive impairment, depression and ADL disability were almost constant with increasing age.ConclusionThis study adds knowledge of gender differences in healthy life expectancy in the older Thai population using a wider spectrum of health which provides useful information to diverse policy audiences.

BackgroundDietary patterns (DP) are associated with health outcomes in younger adults but there is a lack of evidence in the very old (aged 85+) on DP and their association with sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, health and functioning measures. Higher socioeconomic status (SES) has been linked with healthier DP but it is not known whether these associations are sustained in the very old.ObjectiveWe aimed to (a) characterise DP in the very old and (b) assess the relationships between three SES indicators (education, occupational class and area-deprivation index [IMD]) and DP.MethodsComplete dietary data at baseline (2006/07) for 793 participants in the Newcastle 85+ Study were established through 24-hr multiple pass recall. We used Two-Step clustering and 30 food groups to derive DP, and multinomial logistic regression models to assess the association with SES.ResultsWe identified three distinct DP (characterised as 'High Red Meat', 'Low Meat', and 'High Butter') that varied with key sociodemographic, health and functioning measures. 'Low Meat' participants were more advantaged (i.e. higher education and occupational class, and lived in more affluent areas in owned homes), were least disabled, cognitively impaired, and depressed, and were more physically active than those in the other DP. After adjusting for other lifestyle factors, cognitive status and BMI, lower educational attainment remained a significant predictor of 'High Red Meat' and 'High Butter' membership compared with 'Low Meat' ('High Red Meat': OR [95% CI] for 0-9 and 10-11 years of education vs. ≥12 years: 5.28 [2.85-9.79], pConclusionsIn this cohort of very old adults, we detected a favourable DP ('Low Meat'), which was associated with better health and functioning and higher SES.

BackgroundIndividuals may make a rational decision not to engage in healthy behaviours based on their assessment of the benefits of such behaviours to them, compared to other uncontrollable threats to their health. Anticipated survival is one marker of perceived uncontrollable threats to health. We hypothesised that greater anticipated survival: a) is cross-sectionally associated with healthier patterns of behaviours; b) increases the probability that behaviours will be healthier at follow up than at baseline; and c) decreases the probability that behaviours will be 'less healthy' at follow than at baseline.MethodsData from waves 1 and 5 of the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing provided 8 years of follow up. Perceptions of uncontrollable threats to health at baseline were measured using anticipated survival. Health behaviours considered were self-reported cigarette smoking, physical activity level, and frequency of alcohol consumption. A wide range of socio-economic, demographic, and health variables were adjusted for.ResultsGreater anticipated survival was cross-sectionally associated with lower likelihood of smoking, and higher physical activity levels, but was not associated with alcohol consumption. Lower anticipated survival was associated with decreased probability of adopting healthier patterns of physical activity, and increased probability of becoming a smoker at follow up. There were no associations between anticipated survival and change in alcohol consumption.ConclusionsOur hypotheses were partially confirmed, though associations were inconsistent across behaviours and absent for alcohol consumption. Individual assessments of uncontrollable threats to health may be an important determinant of smoking and physical activity.

The rising prevalence of cognitive impairment is an increasing challenge with the ageing of our populations but little is known about the burden in low- and middle- income Latin American and Caribbean countries (LAC) that are aging more rapidly than their developed counterparts. We examined life expectancies with cognitive impairment (CILE) and free of cognitive impairment (CIFLE) in seven developing LAC countries.Data from The Survey on Health, Well-being and Ageing in LAC (N = 10,597) was utilised and cognitive status was assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The Sullivan Method was applied to estimate CILE and CIFLE. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of age, gender and education on cognitive outcome. Meta-regression models were fitted for all 7 countries together to investigate the relationship between CIFLE and education in men and women at age 60.The prevalence of CI increased with age in all countries except Uruguay and with a significant gender effect observed only in Mexico where men had lower odds of CI compared to women [OR = 0.464 95% CInt (0.268 - 0.806)]. Low education was associated with increased prevalence of CI in Brazil [OR = 4.848 (1.173-20.044)], Chile [OR = 3.107 (1.098-8.793), Cuba [OR = 2.295 (1.247-4.225)] and Mexico [OR = 3.838 (1.368-10.765). For males, total life expectancy (TLE) at age 60 was highest in Cuba (19.7 years) and lowest in Brazil and Uruguay (17.6 years). TLE for females at age 60 was highest for Chileans (22.8 years) and lowest for Brazilians (20.2 years). CIFLE for men was greatest in Cuba (19.0 years) and least in Brazil (16.7 years). These differences did not appear to be explained by educational level (Men: p = 0.408, women: p = 0.695).Increasing age, female sex and low education were associated with higher CI in LAC reflecting patterns found in other countries.

IntroductionEpidemiological studies have shown that weaker grip strength in later life is associated with disability, morbidity, and mortality. Grip strength is a key component of the sarcopenia and frailty phenotypes and yet it is unclear how individual measurements should be interpreted. Our objective was to produce cross-sectional centile values for grip strength across the life course. A secondary objective was to examine the impact of different aspects of measurement protocol.MethodsWe combined 60,803 observations from 49,964 participants (26,687 female) of 12 general population studies in Great Britain. We produced centile curves for ages 4 to 90 and investigated the prevalence of weak grip, defined as strength at least 2.5 SDs below the gender-specific peak mean. We carried out a series of sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of dynamometer type and measurement position (seated or standing).ResultsOur results suggested three overall periods: an increase to peak in early adult life, maintenance through to midlife, and decline from midlife onwards. Males were on average stronger than females from adolescence onwards: males' peak median grip was 51 kg between ages 29 and 39, compared to 31 kg in females between ages 26 and 42. Weak grip strength, defined as strength at least 2.5 SDs below the gender-specific peak mean, increased sharply with age, reaching a prevalence of 23% in males and 27% in females by age 80. Sensitivity analyses suggested our findings were robust to differences in dynamometer type and measurement position.ConclusionThis is the first study to provide normative data for grip strength across the life course. These centile values have the potential to inform the clinical assessment of grip strength which is recognised as an important part of the identification of people with sarcopenia and frailty.

BackgroundPeople aged 85 and over are often excluded from research on the grounds of being difficult to recruit and problematic to retain. The Newcastle 85+ study successfully recruited a cohort of 854 85-year-olds to detailed health assessment at baseline and followed them up over 3 phases spanning 5 years. This paper describes the effectiveness of its retention strategies.MethodsPrimary retention strategies involved meticulous management of contact information and active maintenance of contact with participants between research visits and between phases of the study. For statistical analysis, data on post-inclusion attrition over the 3 follow-up phases was separated into 'death' and 'withdrawal' categories, with sub-categories 'health' and 'non-health' reasons created for 'withdrawal'. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine if particular socio-demographic and health characteristics were associated with post-inclusion attrition due to withdrawal at each of the 3 phase-to-phase transition points.ResultsFor both sexes, at successive follow-up phases there was a decrease in attrition due to withdrawal and an increase due to death. Withdrawal was most prevalent between baseline and phase 2. Across the 5 years of the study total post-inclusion (post-baseline) attrition due to death accounted for a 40% (344/854) loss to cohort and total post-inclusion attrition due to withdraw a 19% (166/854) loss to cohort, with health reasons for withdrawal becoming more dominant over time. Adjusting for sex, parsimonious modelling showed only occupational class (National Statistics Socio-economic Classification) to be associated with withdrawal and only between baseline and phase 2 (routine/manual compared to managerial (OR 3.41; 95% CI [1.23 to 9.44]).ConclusionFollowing successful recruitment, we retained a high proportion of participants from a very old age group over 5 years of longitudinal research. No strong predictors of post-inclusion attrition due to withdrawal were found, suggesting the general effectiveness of our retention strategies.

Reliable and valid biomarkers of ageing (BoA) are needed to understand mechanisms, test interventions and predict the timing of adverse health events associated with ageing. Since increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and mitochondrial dysfunction are consequences of cellular senescence and may contribute causally to the ageing of organisms, we focused on these parameters as candidate BoA. Superoxide levels, mitochondrial mass and mitochondrial membrane potential in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and subpopulations (lymphocytes and monocytes) were measured in participants from the Newcastle 85+ study, a population-based study of the very old (aged 85 years and older). The intra- and inter-assay precision expressed as coefficient of variation (CV) for all parameters was acceptable (3% to 12% and 5 to 22% respectively). All parameters were stable in the short-term (1 week interval) in a sample of control individuals in the PBMCs and lymphocyte subpopulation, however they were unstable in the monocyte subpopulation; this rendered monocytes unreliable for further analysis. There was a significant association between superoxide levels and mitochondrial mass (positive in lymphocytes, p = 0.01) and between superoxide levels and mitochondrial membrane potential (negative in PBMCs, p = 0.01; positive in lymphocytes, p = 0.05). There were also significant associations between superoxide levels and mitochondrial parameters with other markers of oxidative stress-induced cellular senescence (p≤0.04), however some were in the opposite direction to expected. No associations were found between the measured parameters and age-related outcomes, including cognitive impairment, disability, co-morbidity and survival - questioning the validity of these parameters as candidate BoA in the very old.

BackgroundExplanations for the male-female disability-survival paradox - that woman live longer than men but with more disability - include sex differences in diseases and their impact on disability and death. Less is known about the paradox in the very old. We examine sex differences in the presence and impact of disabling and fatal diseases accounting for the male-female disability-survival paradox in very late life.MethodsWe use data from the Newcastle 85+ Study, a cohort of people born in 1921 and all recruited at age 85 in 2006. Participants underwent a health assessment (HA) at baseline, 18 months, 36 months, 60 months, and a review of their GP records (GPRR) at baseline and 36 months. We used multi-state modelling to assess the impact of specific diseases on disability and death. Disability (measured via ADLs/IADLs) was categorised as no disability (difficulty with 0 activities), or disabled (difficulty with one or more activities). Diseases were ascertained from review of general practice records and cognitive impairment which was defined as an sMMSE of 21 or less (from health assessment).ResultsIn participants who had complete HA and GPRR, women had more arthritis (RR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.3) and hypertension (RR = 1.2, 95%CI 1.0-1.3), more disability, and were more likely disabled at all follow-ups. From multistate models, women with cerebrovascular disease (HR: 2.6, 95% CI: 2.1-3.4) or respiratory disease (HR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.4-3.0) were more likely to become disabled than those without but this did not hold for men (sex difference pConclusionThe disability-survival paradox was still evident at age 85 and appears due to sex differences in the types of diseases and their impact on the disability pathway.

Cardiovascular disease and its risk factors have consistently been associated with poor cognitive function and incident dementia. Whether cardiovascular disease prediction models, developed to predict an individual's risk of future cardiovascular disease or stroke, are also informative for predicting risk of cognitive decline and dementia is not known.The objective of this systematic review was to compare cohort studies examining the association between cardiovascular disease risk models and longitudinal changes in cognitive function or risk of incident cognitive impairment or dementia.Medline, PsychINFO, and Embase were searched from inception to March 28, 2014. From 3,413 records initially screened, 21 were included.The association between numerous different cardiovascular disease risk models and cognitive outcomes has been tested, including Framingham and non-Framingham risk models. Five studies examined dementia as an outcome; fourteen studies examined cognitive decline or incident cognitive impairment as an outcome; and two studies examined both dementia and cognitive changes as outcomes. In all studies, higher cardiovascular disease risk scores were associated with cognitive changes or risk of dementia. Only four studies reported model prognostic performance indices, such as Area Under the Curve (AUC), for predicting incident dementia or cognitive impairment and these studies all examined non-Framingham Risk models (AUC range: 0.74 to 0.78).Cardiovascular risk prediction models are associated with cognitive changes over time and risk of dementia. Such models are easily obtainable in clinical and research settings and may be useful for identifying individuals at high risk of future cognitive decline and dementia.

Very old adults are at increased risk of folate and vitamin B12 deficiencies due to reduced food intake and gastrointestinal absorption. The main aim was to determine the association between folate and vitamin B12 intake from total diets and food groups, and status. Folate or vitamin B12 intakes (2 × 24 h multiple pass recalls) and red blood cell (RBC) folate or plasma vitamin B12 (chemiluminescence immunoassays) concentrations were available at baseline for 731 participants aged 85 from the Newcastle 85+ Study (North-East England). Generalized additive and binary logistic models estimated the associations between folate and vitamin B12 intakes from total diets and food groups, and RBC folate and plasma B12. Folate intake from total diets and cereal and cereal products was strongly associated with RBC folate (p < 0.001). Total vitamin B12 intake was weakly associated with plasma vitamin B12 (p = 0.054) but those with higher intakes from total diets or meat and meat products were less likely to have deficient status. Women homozygous for the FUT2 G allele had higher concentrations of plasma vitamin B12. Cereals and cereal products are a very important source of folate in the very old. Higher intakes of folate and vitamin B12 lower the risk of “inadequate” status.

OBJECTIVES:To investigate the order in which 85 year olds develop difficulty in performing a wide range of daily activities covering basic personal care, household care and mobility. DESIGN:Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a cohort study. SETTING:Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside, UK. PARTICIPANTS:Individuals born in 1921, registered with participating general practices. MEASUREMENTS:Detailed health assessment including 17 activities of daily living related to basic personal care, household care and mobility. Questions were of the form 'Can you …' rather than 'Do you…' Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to confirm a single underlying dimension for the items and Mokken Scaling was used to determine a subsequent hierarchy. Validity of the hierarchical scale was assessed by its associations with known predictors of disability. RESULTS:839 people within the Newcastle 85+ study for whom complete information was available on self-reported Activities of Daily Living (ADL). PCA confirmed a single underlying dimension; Mokken scaling confirmed a hierarchic scale where 'Cutting toenails' was the first item with which participants had difficulty and 'feeding' the last. The ordering of loss differed between men and women. Difficulty with 'shopping' and 'heavy housework' were reported earlier by women whilst men reported 'walking 400 yards' earlier. Items formed clusters corresponding to strength, balance, lower and upper body involvement and domains specifically required for balance and upper/lower limb functional integrity. CONCLUSION:This comprehensive investigation of ordering of ability in activities in 85 year olds will inform researchers and practitioners assessing older people for onset of disability and subsequent care needs.

Falls are common in older people and increase in prevalence with advancing old age. There is limited knowledge about their impact in those aged 85 years and older, the fastest growing age group of the population. We investigated the prevalence and impact of falls, and the overlap between falls, dizziness and blackouts, in a population-based sample of 85 year olds.Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from Newcastle 85+ Cohort Study.Primary care, North-East England.816 men and women aged 85 years.Structured interview with research nurse. Cost-consequence analysis of fall-related healthcare costs.Over 38% (313/816) of participants had fallen at least once in the previous 12 months and of these: 10.6% (33/312) sustained a fracture, 30.1% (94/312) attended an emergency department, and 12.8% (40/312) were admitted to hospital. Only 37.2% (115/309) of fallers had specifically discussed their falls problem with their general practitioner and only 12.7% (39/308) had seen a falls specialist. The average annual healthcare cost per faller was estimated at £202 (inter-quartile range £174-£231) or US$329 ($284-$377). 'Worry about falling' was experienced by 42.0% (128/305) of fallers, 'loss of confidence' by 40.0% (122/305), and 'going out less often' by 25.9% (79/305); each was significantly more common in women, odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for women: men of 2.63 (1.45-4.55), 4.00 (2.27-7.14), and 2.86 (1.54-5.56) respectively. Dizziness and blackouts were reported by 40.0% (318/796) and 6.4% (52/808) of participants respectively. There was marked overlap in the report of falls, dizziness and blackouts.Falls in 85 year olds are very common, associated with considerable psychological and physical morbidity, and have high impact on healthcare services. Wider use of fall prevention services is needed. Significant expansion in acute and preventative services is required in view of the rapid growth in this age group.