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One of the major challenges in seismology is the lack of a unified view of earthquake dynamics embracing all the spatial and temporal scales at which it takes place: while several models describe successfully how single seismic events develop and statistical laws have been set up to characterize the distribution of seismicity in magnitude, space and time, at least as a consequence of mainshocks, such dichotomic information is rarely put into communication to better understand how seismogenesis occurs. Although a comprehensive, cross-scale theory is intrinsically impossible because of the different levels of physical complexity involved in the seismological processes, it is possible to derive several well-known links, as well as interesting new ones, between coseismic properties and long-term statistical patterns. We introduce a simple model based on optimization criteria to explain such mathematical relationships. Given an initial energy perturbation localised on a fault segment, the interface breaks down if the perturbation increases its energy beyond the breakdown level. The slip occurs and the fracture spreads rapidly. Not only that (which is not enough to explain how the fault system will behave at large scales), since the fault zone is in an unstable and frustrated state, i.e., a configuration forced by tectonic stress: meanwhile the fracture propagates, the adjoining interfaces and volumes move towards a more stable energy level, amplifying energy release by a certain amount. Then, the latter can be interpreted as a measure of the triggering power of fracture and applied to connect local and collective dynamics. We focus on the role of tectonic setting and the differences between in-fault and off-fault seismicity. Our model can reproduce several features of seismicity, such as the dependence of the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law on the tectonic setting, the correlation between b- and p-value of the Omori-Utsu law, the fractal dimension of hypocentral time series, duration of seismic sequences and the efficiency of the seismogenic process. We utilise the same framework to analyse the composition of moment tensor solutions of global and regional shallow seismicity in terms of double-couple vs non-double-couple contributions. We find that thrust events are characterized by higher double-couples with respect to normal and strike-slip fault earthquakes. Our results are also coherent with the broadly studied stress dependence of the scaling exponent b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law, which turns out to be anticorrelated to the double-couple contribution. Our work suggests that the structural and tectonic complexity of the seismogenic source marked by the roughness of faults and the width of the dislocation zones has a significant impact on coseismic dynamics, which should be considered in the routinely applied observational procedures to avoid systematic biases in the estimation of the parameters of the seismic source, e.g., the seismic moment.

It is well known that oscillating stress sources play a relevant role in the stability of mechanical systems. The Earth is routinely subject to stress loading due to tides, hydrological cycles, atmospheric pressure variations and anthropical activities. However, the shallow part of our planet is far from being a simple system, so each component showcases a different response to perturbations depending on its physical properties. Macroscopically, the outer layers of the Earth form a two-tier system with respect to periodic stress changes: the brittle crust reacts forthwith to additional loads; conversely, the viscous lithosphere behaves as a low-pass filter. Such a dichotomy produces a wide range of different geodynamic, tectonic, and seismological processes. Seismicity becomes more and more sensitive to stress perturbations as strain accumulates so that earthquakes tend to occur, on average, during phases close to stress peak. We analyse the effect of solid and liquid tides in modulating seismicity during the seismic cycle in several regions of tectonic interest. Our study shows that the correlation between the amplitude of tidal CFS and seismic energy rate usually increases before large shocks, while it undergoes drops during foreshock activity and after the mainshock. A preseismic phase, featured by increasing correlation, is detected before large and intermediate (Mw > 4.5) shallow earthquakes in about 2/3 of cases. The duration of the anomaly T appears to be related to the seismic moment M of the future mainshock via the relationship T ∝ M^0.3 if the magnitude of the largest event is below 6.5. This power exponent, 1/3, is typical of seismic nucleation scaling of single seismic events; therefore, the increase of correlation between seismic rates and tidal stress on fault may be understood in the light of diffuse nucleation phases throughout the crust due to incoming large-scale destabilization. We also consider tremors and low-frequency earthquakes in the Cascadia region along the West coasts of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and Northern California and the Nankai thrust in Japan. Their sensitivity to stress perturbations increases as the surrounding fault interface is seismically locked, showing an analogous response to fast seismic events. On the other hand, viscous layers of the lithosphere are almost unresponsive to high-frequency stress perturbations (e.g., at least up to annual periods); however, they can flow plastically under the action of long-lasting loading: it is the case of low-frequency Earth tides (e.g., lunar nodal 18.61-years-long cycle) which can be detected as millimetric modulations in relative plate velocities using single-station- and baseline- modes GNSS time series. On the light of thin ultralow viscosity zones spreading at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary and inside the asthenosphere, and of thermally active small-cell stratified convection in the super-adiabatic zones of the upper mantle, it is reasonable that such modulations may have geodynamic implications. This conclusion is also supported by several observations proving a worldwide asymmetry in global geodynamics such as the westerly oriented motions of plates which follow a mainstream with a 0.2-1.2°/Myr drift relative to the sub-asthenospheric mantle in the hotspot reference frame.

The Po Plain (Italy) is one of the most densely populated and productive regions of Europe, characterized by a flourishing economy (also linked to strategic subsurface resources) and several world cultural and natural heritage sites. The coupling of social-economic interests with geological hazards (i.e., seismic, subsidence and flooding hazards) in this area requires accurate knowledge of the subsurface geology, active geological processes, and impact of human activities on natural environments to mitigate the potential natural and anthropic risks. Most data unveiling the subsurface geology of this region were produced by the hydrocarbon exploration industry. Po Plain hosts indeed many hydrocarbon fields that were discovered since the early 1950s giving rise to the subsurface exploration through extensive seismic reflection surveys and drilling of numerous deep wells. In this work, geological-geophysical data from 160 deep wells drilled for hydrocarbon exploration/exploitation purposes in the Po Plain and in the facing northern Adriatic Sea have been collected and digitized along with several published geological cross-sections and maps. These data have been used to reconstruct the overall subsurface 3D architecture and to extract the physical properties of the subsurface geological units. The digitized data are suitable to be imported into geo-software environments so to derive the geophysical-mechanical properties of the geological units for a wealth of applied and scientific studies such as geomechanical, geophysical and seismological studies. The integrated dataset may represent a useful tool in defining strategies to ensure the safety of the urbanized areas and human activities and to reduce natural and anthropic risks that may affect this crucial region of Europe. Nowadays, such issues are particularly relevant for the underground industry development related to the increasing interest on possible CO2 and hydrogen underground storage, which can play a fundamental role in the energy transition process towards the decarbonisation goals.

SUMMARYThe preparation, initiation and occurrence dynamics of earthquakes in Italy are governed by several frequently unknown physical mechanisms and parameters. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for developing new techniques and approaches for earthquake monitoring and hazard assessments. Here, we develop a first-order numerical model simulating quasi-static crustal interseismic loading, coseismic brittle episodic dislocation and post-seismic relaxation for extensional and compressional earthquakes in Italy based on a common framework of lithostatic and tectonic forces. Our model includes an upper crust, where the fault is locked, and a deep crust, where the fault experiences steady shear.The results indicate that during the interseismic phase, the contrasting behaviour between the upper locked fault segment and lower creeping fault segment generates a stretched volume at depth in the hangingwall via extensional tectonics while a contracted volume forms via compressional tectonics. The interseismic stress and strain gradients invert at the coseismic stage, with the interseismic dilated volume contracting during the coseismic stage, and vice versa. Moreover, interseismic stress gradients promote coseismic gravitational subsidence of the hangingwall for normal fault earthquakes and elastic uplift for reverse fault earthquakes. Finally, the post-seismic relaxation is characterized by further ground subsidence and uplift for normal and reverse faulting earthquakes, respectively, which is consistent with the faulting style. The fault is the passive feature, with slipping generating the seismic waves, whereas the energy activating the movement is stored mostly in the hangingwall volume. The main source of energy for normal faulting and thrust is provided by the lithostatic load and elastic load, respectively.

The Central Apennines is characterized by the presence of several active Plio-Quaternary normal faults, potentially capable of generating damaging earthquakes (as occurred in the recent past).The seismicity registered for central Italy in the last 20 years by the seismic network of INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology) highlights the presence of a regional seismic gap in the Sulmona and Caramanico Plio-Quaternary intermountain basins. In the study area, the magnitude of historical earthquakes ranges of from 5 to 6.8 Mw (from the 2nd century A.D. to 1933), while paleoseismological studies assigned a possible magnitude of 6.7 ± 0.1 to 4 earthquakes in the Sulmona basin (based on the fault length and the average of slip rate per event, estimated to be 1m). The high magnitude recorded for the destructive 1915 Avezzano earthquake (about 7 Mw), located in the Fucino basin (about 25 km to the west of the Sulmona basin), could suggest a similar potential seismic hazard also for the Sulmona and Caramanico normal faults. However, uncertainties remain on the activation mechanism related to the possible earthquake, expected in the study area. To reduce these uncertainties, we use a 3D modelling approach to perform a detailed calculation of the “active” rock volume of the hanging wall of the Sulmona and Caramanico faults (brittle volume), making an estimation of the possible maximum magnitude associated with these normal faults (testing different scenarios on the earthquake enucleation).To reach this goal, a 3D structural and geological model was carried out starting from the available geological cartography, exploration wells, geophysical data (such as seismic sections and relocated earthquakes), and geological models from the literature. As a first step, several 2D balanced geological cross-sections were built across the Central Apennines to define the main structural picture at the regional scale (still discussed in literature). Cross-sections were built using MOVE (Petroleum Experts), while 3D modelling was completed using Petrel (Schlumberger) software. For the 3D modelling phase, the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) was used to localize the bottom of the potential brittle volumes at depth (assumed as maximum depth of the hypocenter). Following this methodology, the maximum magnitudes were estimated of the Sulmona (7.1 Mw, BDT at 17 km) and Caramanico (7.2 Mw, BDT at 20 km) normal faults. With the aim of simulating a more conservative scenario, the effects of a possible shallower structural cut-off for the Sulmona (8 km) and Caramanico (10 km) areas were investigated. The resulting reduced brittle volumes led to lower magnitude values estimate (6.6 Mw for the Sulmona, and 6.8 Mw for the Caramanico faults).This approach allowed to make an estimate of the expected magnitudes for future seismic events associated to the Sulmona and Caramanico regional extensional faults, considering two different fault activation models (because of the regional structural uncertainties). Our work also demonstrates the importance of implementing robust 3D geological models to support seismogenic potential evaluation and seismic hazard studies.

We investigate the effect of the westerly rotation of the lithosphere on the active margins that surround the Americas and find good correlations between the inferred easterly-directed mantle counterflow and the main structural grain and kinematics of the Andes and Sandwich arc slabs. In the Andes, the subduction zone is shallow and with low dip, because the mantle flow sustains the slab; the subduction hinge converges relative to the upper plate and generates an uplifting doubly verging orogen. The Sandwich Arc is generated by a westerly-directed SAM (South American) plate subduction where the eastward mantle flow is steepening and retreating the subduction zone. In this context, the slab hinge is retreating relative to the upper plate, generating the backarc basin and a low bathymetry single-verging accretionary prism. In Central America, the Caribbean plate presents a more complex scenario: (a) To the East, the Antilles Arc is generated by westerly directed subduction of the SAM plate, where the eastward mantle flow is steepening and retreating the subduction zone. (b) To the West, the Middle America Trench and Arc are generated by the easterly-directed subduction of the Cocos plate, where the shallow subduction caused by eastward mantle flow in its northern segment gradually steepens to the southern segment as it is infered by the preexisting westerly-directed subduction of the Caribbean Plateau. In the frame of the westerly lithospheric flow, the subduction of a divergent active ridge plays the role of introducing a change in the oceanic/continental plate’s convergence angle, such as in NAM (North American) plate with the collision with the Pacific/Farallon active ridge in the Neogene (Cordilleran orogenic type scenario). The easterly mantle drift sustains strong plate coupling along NAM, showing at Juan de Fuca easterly subducting microplate that the subduction hinge advances relative to the upper plate. This lower/upper plate convergence coupling also applies along strike to the neighbor continental strike slip fault systems where subduction was terminated (San Andreas and Queen Charlotte). The lower/upper plate convergence coupling enables the capture of the continental plate ribbons of Baja California and Yakutat terrane by the Pacific oceanic plate, transporting them along the strike slip fault systems as para-autochthonous terranes. This Cordilleran orogenic type scenario, is also recorded in SAM following the collision with the Aluk/Farallon active ridge in the Paleogene, segmenting SAM margin into the eastwardly subducting Tupac Amaru microplate intercalated between the proto-Liquine-Ofqui and Atacama strike slip fault systems, where subduction was terminated and para-autochthonous terranes transported. In the Neogene, the convergence of Nazca plate with respect to SAM reinstalls subduction and the present Andean orogenic type scenario., Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas

Mapping the static gravity field in the Italian area is fundamental to identify the main lithospheric structures, to delineate the main geological elements at regional level and to infer the regional geodynamic setting. The ongoing tectonic processes highlight nevertheless the need to measure and model the time-variable gravity field, namely the dynamic gravity field, which requires increased accuracy and long time series of observations to separate the secular from the short-term variable components. The first, with a minor impact in Italy, are due to variations of ice mass balance (the viscoelastic response of the Earth to past changes in ice mass loading, and the elastic response of the Earth to present-day deglaciation), and the sea-level rise; the second are due to space/time variations of underground mass distributions, such as those related to seismic deformations, volcanic dynamics/eruptions and water transfer. Local-scale gravity studies along seismogenic faults may provide useful hints to study the seismic cycle and to unravel those areas more prone to seismic release by studying if the crustal volume is undergoing dilatancy (gravity decrease) or overpressure (gravity increase) before earthquake occurrence. This process, however, is accompanied by possible fluid migration, which can be revealed by other geophysical measurements, for example, by magnetotelluric and geoelectrical surveys. In this short paper, we briefly summarize the main sources of gravity variation providing on the same time orders of magnitude, spatial and temporal scales of their effects.

The processes occurring on the Earth are controlled by several gradients. The surface of the Planet is featured by complex geological patterns produced by both endogenous and exogenous phenomena. The lack of direct investigations still makes Earth interior poorly understood and prevents complete clarification of the mechanisms ruling geodynamics and tectonics. Nowadays, slab-pull is considered the force with the greatest impact on plate motions, but also ridge-push, trench suction and physico-chemical heterogeneities are thought to play an important role. However, several counterarguments suggest that these mechanisms are insufficient to explain plate tectonics. While large part of the scientific community agreed that either bottom-up or top-down driven mantle convection is the cause of lithospheric displacements, geodetic observations and geodynamic models also support an astronomical contribution to plate motions. Moreover, several evidences indicate that tectonic plates follow a mainstream and how the lithosphere has a roughly westerly drift with respect to the asthenospheric mantle. An even more wide-open debate rises for the occurrence of earthquakes, which should be framed within the different tectonic setting, which affects the spatial and temporal properties of seismicity. In extensional regions, the dominant source of energy is given by gravitational potential, whereas in strike-slip faults and thrusts, earthquakes mainly dissipate elastic potential energy indeed. In the present article, a review is given of the most significant results of the last years in the field of geodynamics and earthquake geology following the common thread of gradients, which ultimately shape our planet.

The statistical properties of seismicity are known to be affected by several factors such as the rheological parameters of rocks. We analysed the earthquake double-couple as a function of the faulting type. Here we show that it impacts the moment tensors of earthquakes: thrust-faulting events are characterized by higher double-couple components with respect to strike-slip- and normal-faulting earthquakes. Our results are coherent with the stress dependence of the scaling exponent of the Gutenberg-Richter law, which is anticorrelated to the double-couple. We suggest that the structural and tectonic control of seismicity may have its origin in the complexity of the seismogenic source marked by the width of the cataclastic damage zone and by the slip of different fault planes during the same seismic event; the sharper and concentrated the slip as along faults, the higher the double-couple. This phenomenon may introduce bias in magnitude estimation, with possible impact on seismic forecasting.

Assessing the stability state of faults is a crucial issue not only for seismic hazard, but also for understanding how the earthquake machine works. A possible approach consists in perturbing fault systems and studying how seismicity changes after additional stress is provided: if the starting energy state is stable, it will oscillate around it; otherwise, the background seismic rate will be modified. Tides provide natural stress sources featured by a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes, which make them a suitable candidate for our needs. Analyses prove that the brittle crust becomes more and more sensible to stress modulations as the critical breaking point comes close. Especially, the correlation between the variation of Coulomb failure stress induced by tidal loading, ΔCFS, and seismic energy rate progressively increases as long as seismic stability is kept; conversely, abrupt drops are observed as foreshocks and preslip occur. A preparatory phase, featured by increasing correlation, is usually detected before large and intermediate (Mw > 5) shallow (depth < 50 km) earthquakes. The duration of the anomaly, T, is suggested to be related to the seismic moment M of the impending mainshock by T ∝ M^(1/3) for M < 10^19 N m. The same power exponent characterizes seismic nucleation scaling of single earthquakes. This analogy may be explained assuming that the physical mechanism behind both these phenomena is the same. Consequently, the anomalies we measure might be interpreted as diffuse nucleation phases throughout the crust. The scaling relation becomes T ∝ M^0.1 for M > 10^19 N m, probably because of preparation processes occurring contemporaneously in interacting faults. We apply this method to dozens of seismic sequences which hit California, Greece, Iceland, Italy and New Zealand, we also analysed seismic activity jointly with slow slip events in the Cascadia subduction zone, Manawatu region and in the Nankai Trough. Even though it is unlikely that our results may ever be of practical use for seismic hazard, the procedure could illuminate slow hidden processes of destabilization taking place within the brittle crust.

Identifying and monitoring the presence of pressurized magma beneath volcanoes allows for improved understanding of internal dynamics and prediction of eruptions. Here we show with time-repeated tomography clear evidence that fresh melts accumulate since 2019 in three reservoirs located at different depths in the central feeding system. In these three volumes, we observe a significant reduction of seismic wave velocity, an anomaly that has endured for almost two years. Reservoir re-pressurization induced seismicity clusters around the pressurized volumes within high fluid pressure compartments. This indicated a sharp change in volcano behavior, with re-pressurization of the central system replacing two-decade-long, flank collapse-dominated dynamics. The volume where the velocities are altered is remarkable in size, suggesting the injection of new melt, and that erupted lava represents only a small percentage. Our findings suggest that ongoing volcanic recrudescence can persist. Melt accumulating in multiple reservoirs beneath Mt Etna could feed eruptions for decades to come, according to detailed seismic tomography modelling.

The Central Apennines fold-and-thrust belt (Central Italy) is characterized by the presence of several active faults, potentially capable of generating damaging earthquakes. To support seismic hazard studies over the area, a new 3D velocity model was built, integrating a wide range of surface and subsurface data.The tectonic framework of the area (from Sulmona plain to Maiella Mt), is still debated in literature, also due to the lack of both an adequate geophysical data set and a reliable velocity model at the crustal scale.In addition, the low number of seismic stations available for the acquisition of Vp/Vs arrival times, and the very low seismicity detected in the study area (the Sulmona and Caramanico Apennine valleys are considered as “seismic gaps”), lead to a difficult interpretation of the subsurface tectonic structures.3D velocity modelling could well represent an important tool to support these deep crustal reconstructions as well earthquake relocation studies and could enhance the definition of seismogenic faults deep geometries, hence supporting a better risk assessment over the area of these potential locked faults.Using the knowledge developed within the oil&gas industry as well in gas/CO2 storage projects for the construction of 3D velocity models, extensively used to obtain subsurface imaging and define the geometry of the reservoirs and traps in the depth domain, a similar methodological approach was implemented over the study area.The subsurface dataset was partially inherited by the past hydrocarbon exploration activities (e.g. seismic lines, exploration wells and sonic logs) and by the literature (e.g. time/depth regional models). Tomographic sections and relocated earthquake hypocentres were also integrated form geophysical studies. Geological maps (1:50.000 & 1:100.000 scale) represent the surface dataset that we used to create the surface interpretation of the regional geology.As a first step, 18 2D balanced regional geological cross-sections, dip-oriented (W-E) across the Central Apennine, were built define the structural picture at regional scale. The cross-sections were built using MOVE (Petroleum Experts) and Petrel (Schlumberger) software. The following modelling step was the 3D model construction, in which the surface/subsurface data as well as all the geological sections were integrated in the final 3D structural and geological model.The main geological layers reconstructed in the 3D model were than populated using the appropriated interval velocity values, building the final 3D velocity model in which the lateral velocity variation due to the presence of different facies/geological domains were considered.As one of the results, we defined several 1D-velocity models coherent with the regional 3D velocity model, in which the key seismic stations and the earthquakes hypocentres dataset for the most potential seismogenic faults were included. 1D models were characterized by different degree of simplification, in order to test diverse approaches for the earthquake relocation. For this exercise, we used public dataset extracted by the analysis of microseismicity of the Sulmona basin.We believe that the proposed approach can represents an effective method for combining geological and geophysical data to improve the subsurface and seismogenic faults interpretation, contributing to the seismic hazard assessment.

The Quaternary Volsci Volcanic Field (VVF) represents one of the products of the west-directed subduction of the Adriatic slab that drove the development of the Apennine mountain belt in central Italy. Here, we present new results on the eruptive history and the diatreme processes of exemplar tectonically controlled carbonate-seated maar-diatreme volcanoes. The VVF is defined by phreatomagmatic surge deposits, rich in accidental carbonate lithics, and subordinate Strombolian scoria fall deposits and lava flows, locally sourced from some tens of monogenetic eruptive centers, mostly consisting of small volume (0.01-0.1 km3) tuff rings and scoria cones. In light of new 40Ar/39Ar geochronological data and compositional characterization of juvenile eruptive products, we refine the history of VVF activity and envisage the implications on the pre-eruptive magma system and the continental subduction processes involved. Leucite-bearing, high-K (HKS) magmas mostly fed the early phase of activity (∼761–539 ka); primitive, plagioclase-bearing (KS) magmas appeared during the climactic phase (∼424–349 ka), partially overlapping with HKS ones, and then prevailed during the late phase of activity (∼300–231 ka). As the volcanic centers cluster along high-angle faults, we investigate the relationships between faulting and explosive magma-water interaction, as well as the distribution pattern of the eruptive centers. New field data allowed to retrieve the fold-and-thrust belt structure associated with the eruptive centers. Analysis of componentry, grain-size, degrees of whiteness and roundness of carbonate lithic inclusions, along with their micropaleontological features, has allowed to establish volcano tectonic correlations. In our interpretation, the clustering of eruptive centers is controlled by tectonic features. Specifically, a first order control is tentatively related to crustal laceration and deep magma injection along a ENE-trending Quaternary lateral tear in the slab and to Mesozoic rift-related normal faults. A second-order control is provided by orogenic structures (mainly thrust and extensional faults). In particular, magma-water explosive interaction occurred at multiple levels (< 2.3 km depth), depending on the structural setting of the Albian-Cenomanian aquifer-bearing carbonates, which are intersected by high-angle faults. The progressive comminution, rounding and whitening of entrained carbonate lithics allow us to trace multistage diatreme processes. Finally, our findings bear implications on volcanic hazard assessment in the densely populated (> 0.4 million people) areas of the Volsci Range and adjoining Pontina Plain and Middle Latin Valley.

InSAR images allow to detect the coseismic deformation, delimiting the epicentral area where the larger displacement has been concentrated. The main observations are: 1) the most deformed area in the ideal case is elliptical (for dip-slip faults) or quadrilobated (for strike-slip faults) and coincides with the surface projection of the volume coseismically mobilized in the hanging wall of thrusts and normal faults, or the crustal walls adjacent to strike-slip faults; 2) the dimension of the deformed area detected by InSAR scales with magnitude of earthquake and for M≥6 is always larger than 100 km, increasing to more than 550 km2 for M≈6.5; 3) the seismic epicenter rarely coincide with the area of larger vertical shaking (either downward or upward); 4) the higher macroseismic intensity corresponds to the area of larger vertical displacement, apart from local site amplification effects; 5) outside this area, the vertical displacement is drastically lower, determining the strong attenuation of seismic waves and the decrease of the peak ground acceleration in the surrounding far field area, apart from local site amplifications; 6) the segment of the activated fault constrains the area where the vertical oscillations have been larger, allowing the contemporaneous maximum freedom degree of the crustal volume affected by horizontal maximum shaking, i.e., the near field or epicentral area; 7) therefore, the epicentral area and volume are active, i.e., they coseismically move and are contemporaneously crossed by seismic waves (active volume), whereas the surrounding far field area is mainly fixed and passively crossed by seismic waves (passive volume). Therefore, here we show how the InSAR images of areas affected by earthquakes represent the fingerprint of the epicentral area where the largest shaking has taken place during an earthquake. Seismic hazard assessments should rely on those data.

The lithospheric sinking along subduction zones is part of the mantle convection. Therefore, computing the volume of lithosphere recycled within the mantle by subducting slabs quantifies the equivalent amount of mantle that should be displaced, for the mass conservation criterion. Starting from the analysis of the subduction hinge kinematics, that could either move towards (H-convergent) or away (H-divergent) with respect to the fixed upper plate, we compute the amount of lithosphere currently subducting below 31 subduction zones worldwide. Our results show that ~190 km3/yr and ~88 km3/yr of lithosphere are currently subducting below H-divergent and H-convergent subduction zones, respectively. This volume discrepancy is principally due to the difference in the two end-members subduction rate, that takes into account the hinge kinematics. We also propose supporting numerical models providing asymmetric volumes of subducted lithosphere, using the subduction rate, instead of plate convergence, as boundary condition. Subduction zones show a worldwide asymmetry from geological and geophysical observations, such as slab dip, structural elevation, gravity anomalies, heat flow, metamorphic evolution, subsidence and uplift rates or depth of the décollement planes. This asymmetry is expressed also in the behaviour of the subduction hinge, so that H-divergent subduction zones appears to be coincident with subduction zones having “westward”-directed slabs, whereas H-convergent are compatible with those that have “eastward-to-northeastward”-directed slabs. On the basis of this geographical polarity of subducting slabs, the obtained lithospheric volume estimation gives ~214 km3/yr and ~88 km3/yr of subducting lithosphere for subduction zones with W-directed and E-to-NE-directed slabs, respectively. This imply that W-directed subduction zones contribute more than twice in lithospheric sinking into the mantle with respect to E-to-NE-directed ones. In accordance with the conservation of mass principle, this volumetric asymmetry in the mantle suggests a displacement of ~120 km3/yr of mantle material from the west to the east, providing a constrain for a global asymmetric mantle convection.

Although several observations have been reported in the literature before a strong earthquake, their relation with the forthcoming event is often controversial. Since many physical processes and parameters govern the dynamics of preparation, initiation, and occurrence of earthquakes, their understanding is essential for explaining anomalous seismological, geophysical, hydrological and geodetic signals before a strong earthquake that may be considered for seismic monitoring and hazard assessment. In this work, the interseismic and coseismic stress and strain fields associated with the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake are calculated via a 3D numerical model designed to simulate the crustal interseismic loading and the coseismic brittle episodic dislocation along the fault. The model adopts a framework of gravitational and tectonic forces that are compatible with the geodynamics of the Central Apennines region of the Italian territory. The model assumes a brittle upper crust, where the fault has stick-slip behaviour, and a plastic deeper crust, where the fault is in stationary creep. The results indicate that the concurrent action of gravitational and tectonic forces determines steep interseismic stress gradients at the transition between the creeping and locked fault planes that promote the coseismic subsidence of the hanging wall. The interseismic strain above the transition between that locked upper fault and its unlocked lower shear zone develops a dilated volume in the hanging wall and a contracted volume in the footwall. These stress and strain variations are compatible with seismological, geophysical and geodetic anomalies observed before the earthquake, i.e., Vp/Vs anomalies and location of foreshocks. Interseismic stress and strain patterns invert during the coseismic stage. The dilated volume, formed during the interseismic phase, will be contracted at the coseismic stage and, conversely, the footwall volume previously contracted will be expanded.

The Vettore–Bove normal fault system in central Italy ruptured during the 2016 MW 6.5 Norcia earthquake causing extensive surface faulting. At the Pian Grande di Castelluccio hanging wall basin, along the southern section of the fault ruptured during the MW 6.5 mainshock, we performed a high-resolution seismic reflection/refraction experiment aimed at (a) imaging the shallow pattern of the fault system, and (b) reconstructing the architecture of the continental infill. We collected three profiles for a total length of ∼8 km. We used a reflection processing flow and non-linear refraction tomography to obtain migrated stack sections and P-wave velocity images resolved down to the depth of the pre-Quaternary substratum. The main profile in the northern part of the basin crosses the westernmost splays of the ruptured fault zone striking N150°–170°. Seismic imaging unravels a ∼1 km-wide fault zone comprising three W-throwing splays and subsidiary faults, which affect the continental infill and produce a minimum aggregate Quaternary throw of ∼400 ± 100 m. Recent deformation is localized in this part of the surveyed fault section, attesting active displacement accumulation of the Vettore–Bove fault system. The other profiles in the central-southern part of the basin show additional faults, likely striking N20°–40° and which concurred to generate a ∼500 m-deep depocenter. These faults were mostly active during an early extensional phase; however, one of them likely displaces shallow layers with a throw close to the resolution limit of seismic data (

Comb-veins are mineral-filled fractures oriented perpendicular to fault surfaces, with their intersection with the fault surface generating lineations that are perpendicular to the downdip slip direction. Despite the large occurrence along normal faults within seismogenic extensional tectonic settings (i.e. Greece, Turkey, Italy), their origin, geochemical signature, and kinematics are still poorly constrained. Here we present the first multidisciplinary study, combining field to microscale observations (optical microscope and cathodoluminescence) with geochemical-geochronological analyses (U-Th dating, stable-clumped isotopes, Strontium isotopes, whole-rock geochemistry, and fluid inclusions), on calcite-filled comb-veins cutting through the principal surface of the seismogenic Val Roveto Fault in the central Apennines, Italy. We show that comb-veins precipitated in Late Pleistocene time (between 300 ky and 140 ky) below the present-day outcrop level at a maximum depth of ∼350 m and temperatures between 32 and 64°C from deep-seated fluids modified by reactions with crustal rocks and with a mantle contribution (up to ∼39%). The observed geochemical signature and temperatures are not compatible which those of cold meteoric water and/or shallow groundwater (maximum temperature of 12 °C) circulating within shallow aquifers (≤ 500 m depth) in the study region. Therefore, we propose that deep-seated crust/mantle-derived warm fluids were squeezed upward during earthquakes and were hence responsible for calcite precipitation at shallow depths in co-seismic comb fractures. As comb-veins are rather common, particularly along seismogenic normal faults, we suggest that further studies are necessary to test whether these veins are often of co-seismic origin. If so, they may become a unique and irreplaceable tool to unravel the seismic history and crustal-scale fluid circulation of active faults.

Earthquakes are the result of the strain accumulation in the earth's crust over a variable decade to millennial period, i.e., the interseismic stage, followed by a sudden stress release at a crustal discontinuity, i.e., the coseismic stage, finally evolving in a postseismic stage.Commonly, the seismic cycle is modelled with analytical and numerical approaches. Analytical methods simulate the interseismic, coseismic and postseismic phases independently. These models impose the slip of single or multiple planar sources to infer fault geometry, slip distribution and regional deformations to fit the available geodetic or seismological measurements, often regardless of the magnitude and orientation of the interseismic gravitational and tectonic forces. Numerical approaches allow simulating complex geometries in heterogeneous media and at different modelling scales, assuming various constitutive laws. Such models often impose the slip on the fault plane to simulate the observed coseismic dislocation or the propagation of the seismic waves, or they adopt ad-hoc boundary conditions to investigate the interseismic stress accumulation or the postseismic relaxation for specific cases.We contribute to the understanding of the seismic cycle associated to a single fault by developing a numerical model to simulate the long-term crustal interseismic deformation, the coseismic brittle episodic dislocation, and the postseismic relaxation of the upper crust within a unified environment for both normal and reverse fault earthquakes in Italy, including the forces acting during the interseismic period, i.e., the lithostatic load and the horizontal stress field, the latter simulated with the application of a shear traction a the model’s base. We adjusted the setup of our model to simulate the interseismic, coseismic and postseismic phases for two seismic events: the Mw 6.1 L’Aquila 2009 normal fault earthquake and the Mw 5.9 Emilia-Romagna 2012 reverse fault earthquake.The simulation results show that the applied basal shear traction is fundamental to model the large-scale interseismic pattern since it allows for a first-order simulation of the ongoing crustal interseismic extension of the Central Apennines and compression of the Adriatic foreland and the north-eastern part of the Italian territory. The action of shear tractions and lithostatic forces generates a local concentration of stresses and strains in the presence of local heterogeneities or discontinuities, i.e., at the transition between the brittle locked fault and the ductile unlocked slipping fault during the interseismic stage. Such an interseismic strain partitioning provides maximum horizontal stress sufficient to exceed the friction on the locked brittle part of the fault, with the subsequent collapse of the hangingwall in case of extensional earthquakes or the expulsion of the hangingwall in case of compressional earthquakes. The instantaneous slip of the hangingwall perturbs the crustal pore fluid pressures, triggering groundwater flow in the postseismic phase from regions of higher pore pressures, which further compress, to regions of lower pore pressures, which further dilate. As a result, displacements gradually accumulate in the postseismic phase, according to the dissipation of pore pressure excess. Once the postseismic phase terminates, a new cycle of interseismic loading can start again.

Earthquakes are the main natural processes which are able to cause the strongest crustal perturbations in the world. Seismic events change crustal stress, both static and dynamic, in the co-seismic and post-seismic phases. In particular, hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical responses include: changes in water level, temperature, chemical composition, stream flow, and gas geochemistry. Among these parameters water level changes is the most recorded signal because of its fast acquisition and easy instrumentation. Depending on the involved mechanism, groundwater level variation is different. In particular, previous studies have highlighted permanent and transient signals which are characterized by step and spike changes both upward and/or downward. Only few studies have reported groundwater level variations induced by earthquakes that are very far away from the observation point and they are known as “teleseism”. In order to investigate relationship between groundwater properties and seismic cycle, since July 2014 we installed a multiparameter probe in a 100 m deep groundwater well (PF60.3) in Central Apennines (Central Italy). This monitoring well is part of a more complex monitored test site developed for this aim and it has recorded already hydrogeochemical anomalies related to Amatrice-Norcia 2016-2017 seismic sequence. The occurrence of the strongest earthquakes in the world (≈Mw>7.5), from the well probe installation (July 2014) until January 2020, has caused significant changes in groundwater level data. We analysed groundwater level behaviour in relationship to the occurrence of all 218 seismic events with Mw>6.5. We identified 16 interactions, where groundwater level is characterized by an anomalous spike change both upward and/or downward. In particular, we observed a significant interaction between signals for all the strongest seismic events with a Mw≥7.6, except for those happened in Papua Nuova Guinea and for those with ipocenter depth greater than 150 kilometers. We also found some interactions for less strong seismic events (6.5ww between 8 and 8.2 meanwhile the others have a Mw between 6.5 and 7.9. The ipocenter depths of the considered 16 events are within 100 km, except two events that are deeper. We calculated the maximum amplitude of the perturbation and its duration. In this study we present our results with the main aim of expanding our understanding about perturbations due to distant earthquakes in the upper crust and in particular the relative fluid migration.

The Adria microplate is the foreland of the oppositely verging Apennines and Alps or Dinarides fold-thrust belts associated to the related subduction zones. Along its western margin, the Adria plate hosts the active Northern Apennines accretionary prism, which is buried under the Adriatic Sea and the Po Plain. The interpretation of seismic reflection profiles and borehole data allowed us to define the geometry of the transition from the Apennines fold-thrust belt to its undeformed foreland. Moreover, continuous GPS (CGPS) data from offshore hydrocarbon platforms anchored to the seabed of the northern Adriatic plate allow to measure present-day kinematics. Although the CGPS signals are affected by non-tectonic components associated with hydrocarbon extraction, the integration of geodetic analysis, subsurface geological reconstructions, and analytical modeling allowed us to constrain the ongoing tectonic activity. Shortening is currently accommodated by aseismic slip along the basal detachment, likely accumulating elastic energy along the frontal ramp that may eventually seismically slip. Our multidisciplinary study suggests that the study area may not be sheltered from relevant seismic sequences similar to the Mw 6 Emilia 2012 events and that the occurrence of potential seismogenic sources in the area should be carefully evaluated. Similar studies may be useful to constrain the present-day activity in other marine areas and to identify potential and hitherto unrecognized seismogenic sources along the entire Apennines belt and other accretionary prisms worldwide.

The SEISMOFAULTS project (www.seismofaults.it) was set up in 2016 with the general plan of exploring the seismicity of marine areas using deep seafloor observatories. The activity of the first two years (Seismofaults 2017 and 2018) consisted of the installation of a geophysical-geochemical temporary monitoring network over the Ionian Sea floor. Eleven ocean-bottom seismometers with hydrophones (OBS/H) and two seafloor geochemical-geophysical multiparametric observatories were deployed to: (1) identify seismically active faults; (2) identify potential geochemical precursors of earthquakes; and (3) understand possible cause–effect relationships between earthquakes and submarine slides. Furthermore, five gravity cores were collected from the Ionian Sea bottom and ~4082 km of geophysical acquisition, including multibeam and single channel seismic reflection data, were acquired for a total of 4970 km 2 high-resolution multibeam bathymetry. Using Niskin bottles, four water column samples were collected: two corresponding at the location of the two multiparametric observatories (i.e., along presumably-active fault zones), one corresponding at a recently discovered mud volcano, and one located above a presumably-active fault zone away from the other three sites. Preliminary results show: (1) a significant improvement in the quality and quantity of seismological records; (2) endogenous venting from presumably active faults; (3) active geofluid venting from a recently-discovered mud volcano; and (4) the correct use of most submarine devices. Preliminary results from the SEISMOFAULTS project show and confirm the potential of multidisciplinary marine studies, particularly in geologically active areas like southern Italy and the Mediterranean Sea.

The lithospheric sinking along subduction zones is part of the mantle convection. Therefore, computing the volume of lithosphere recycled within the mantle by subducting slabs quantifies the equivalent amount of mantle that should be displaced, for the mass conservation criterion. The rate of subduction is constrained by the convergence rate between upper and lower plates and the motion of the subduction hinge H that may either converge or diverge relative to the upper plate. Here, starting from the analysis of the slab hinge kinematics, we evaluate the subduction rate at 31 subduction zones worldwide, useful to compute volumes of sinking lithosphere into the mantle. Our results show that ∼190 km3/yr and ∼88 km3/yr of lithospheric slabs are currently subducting below H-divergent and H-convergent subduction zones, respectively. We also propose supporting numerical models providing asymmetric volumes of the subducted lithosphere, using the subduction rate instead of plate convergence, as boundary condition. Furthermore, H-divergent subduction zones appear to be coincident with subductions having “westward”-directed slabs, whereas H-convergent subduction zones are mostly compatible with those that have “eastward-to-northeastward”-directed slabs. On the basis of this geographical polarity, our lithospheric volume estimation gives ∼214 km3/yr and ∼88 km3/yr of subducting lithosphere, respectively. This entails that W-directed subduction zones contribute more than twice in lithospheric sinking into the mantle with respect to E-to-NE-directed ones. In accordance with the conservation of mass principle, this volumetric asymmetry in the mantle suggests a displacement of ∼120 km3/yr of mantle material from west to east, providing a constraint for global asymmetric mantle convection.