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In many European countries requirements for retirement have been tightened, causing an increase in work participation of older workers, in spite their potentially poorer health may limit their work ability. This study aimed at assessing the diffusion of health problems and exposure to unfavorable working conditions among ageing workers in two Italian surveys, as well as comparing them with those observed in the same surveys conducted before the 2011 Italian pension reform tightening the normal retirement age. The 2013 National Health Survey (NHS) and Labour Force Survey (LFS) were employed to assess the prevalence of poor perceived health, health conditions and functional limitations, and of exposure to physical, psychosocial and organization factors at work, among 60–64 years workers. Poisson regression models were used to estimate Prevalence Ratios of health outcomes and unfavorable working conditions in the two surveys, compared to data from the 2005 (NHS) and 2007 (LFS) corresponding surveys, respectively. Among both men and women, approximately one quarter had at least one physical disorder or functional limitations and 15% poor mental health. Exposure to different ergonomic factors (15–30%) and working during unsocial hours (19%) were particularly diffused. A significant increase in the prevalence of functional limitations and of working at night or during unsocial hours was found in 2013, compared to corresponding data from 2005 and 2007, respectively. Our results indicate that exposure to ergonomic and organizational hazards should be reduced among ageing workers, to avoid decreased work ability, health damage or early exit from the labour market.

Background Retirement is a life-course transition likely to affect, through different mechanisms, behavioural risk factors’ patterns and, ultimately, health outcomes. We assessed the impact of transitioning to retirement on lifestyle habits and perceived health status in a nationwide cohort of Italian adults. Methods We analysed data from a large cohort of Italian adults aged 55–70, derived from linking six waves of the Participation, Labour, Unemployment Survey (PLUS), a national survey representative of the Italian workforce population, conducted between 2010 and 2018. We estimated relative-risk ratios (RRR) of transition to retirement and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for selected behavioural risk factors and health outcomes using multivariable logistic regression models. We used propensity score matching (PSM) to account for potential confounders. Results We included 5169 subjects in the study population, of which 1653 retired between 2010 and 2018 (exposed, 32%). Transition to retirement was associated with a 36% increased probability of practising sports (RRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12–1.64). No statistically significant changes were reported for smoking habit (current smoker RRR: 1.18, 95% CI 0.94–1.46) and BMI (overweight/obese RRR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.81–1.15). Overall, retiring was associated with improved self-rated health status (RRR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02–1.58). Conclusion Individual data-linkage of multiple waves of the PLUS can offer great insight to inform healthy ageing policies in Italy and Europe. Transition to retirement has an independent effect on perceived health status, physical activity and selected behavioural risk factors. It should be identified as a target moment for preventive interventions, with particular reference to primary prevention so as to promote health and wellbeing in older ages.

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non-keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non-endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age-standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was −15% in men and −5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, −12% in men and −9% in women in the US and about −30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too.

IntroductionThyroid dysfunctions associated with SARS-CoV-2 acute infection have been extensively described since the beginning of COVID-19 pandemics. Conversely, few data are available on the occurrence of thyroid autoimmunity after COVID-19 resolution. We assessed the prevalence of autoimmune thyroid disease (ATD) and thyroid dysfunctions in COVID-19 survivors three months after hospital admission.Design and methodsSingle-center, prospective, observational, cohort study performed at ASST Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, Bergamo, Italy. 599 COVID-19 survivors were prospectively evaluated for thyroid function and autoimmunity thyroperoxidase antibodies (TPOAb), thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb). When a positive antibody concentration was detected, thyroid ultrasound was performed. Multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between autoimmunity and demographic characteristics, respiratory support, and comorbidities. Autoimmunity results were compared to a cohort of 498 controls referred to our Institution for non-thyroid diseases before the pandemic onset. A sensitivity analysis comparing 330 COVID-19 patients with 330 age and sex-matched controls was performed.ResultsUnivariate and multivariate analysis found that female sex was positively associated (OR 2.01, SE 0.48, p = 0.003), and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) was negatively associated (OR 0.36, SE 0.16, p = 0.025) with thyroid autoimmunity; hospitalization, ICU admission, respiratory support, or COVID-19 treatment were not associated with thyroid autoimmunity (p > 0.05). TPOAb prevalence was greater in COVID-19 survivors than in controls: 15.7% vs 7.7%, p = 0.002. Ultrasonographic features of thyroiditis were present in 94.9% of the evaluated patients with positive antibodies. TSH was within the normal range in 95% of patients.ConclusionsAutoimmune thyroid disease prevalence in COVID-19 survivors was doubled as compared to age and sex-matched controls, suggesting a role of SARS-CoV-2 in eliciting thyroid autoimmunity.

BACKGROUND The Yerdel classification is widely used for describing the severity of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in liver transplant (LT) candidates, but might not accurately predict transplant outcome. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed data regarding 97 adult patients with PVT who underwent LT, investigating whether the complexity of portal reconstruction could better correlate with transplant outcome than the site and extent of the thrombosis. RESULTS 79/97 (80%) patients underwent thrombectomy and anatomical anastomosis (TAA), 18/97 (20%) patients underwent non-anatomical physiological reconstructions (non-TAA). PVT Yerdel grade was 1-2 in 72/97 (74%) patients, and 3-4 in 25/97 (26%) patients. Univariate analysis revealed higher 30-day mortality, 90-day mortality, 1-year mortality, and a higher rate of severe early complications in the non-TAA group than in the TAA group (p = .018, .001, .014, .009, respectively). In the model adjusted for PVT Yerdel grade, non-TAA remained independently associated with higher 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality (p = .021, .007, and .015, respectively). The portal vein re-thrombosis and overall patient and graft survival rates were similar. DISCUSSION In our experience, the complexity of portal reconstruction better correlated with transplant outcome than the Yerdel classification, which did not even appear to be a reliable predictor of the surgical complexity and technique.

Background To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU). Materials and methods We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970–2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989–2019. Results We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (−5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (−3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50–69 (−16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20–49 (−13.8%), while more modest at age 70–79 (−6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989–2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths. Conclusion Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.

Aim To characterise mortality trends from major non-communicable diseases in the European Union (EU) analysing data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database. Methods We obtained EU population and death certification data for major non-communicable diseases, i.e. seven cancer sites (stomach, intestine, pancreas, lung, breast, prostate and haematopoietic), total cancers, coronary heart diseases (CHDs) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) from the WHO Mortality Database over the 1970 and 2012 period. We computed age-standardised rates (world standard population) and applied joinpoint regression models to identify temporal trends and age period cohort (APC) models to disentangle the effects of age, period of death and cohort of birth on mortality. Results In 2012, 2.4 million deaths were recorded in the EU (1.3 million from cancers and 1.1 million from CHD and CVD combined). Over the last decade, mortality from cancer fell by 14% in men and 8% in women, resulting in age-standardised rates of 144 and 88/100,000 persons, respectively, in 2012. The only exceptions to the general downward trends were pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. Both cardiovascular diseases mortality fell over 35% in both sexes with rates of 60 and 28/100,000 for CHD, and of 30 and 23/100,000 for CVD, in men and women, respectively, in 2012. Conclusions Overall trends in mortality rates from non-communicable diseases in the EU were favourable, and the joinpoint and APC models indicated these trends are likely to continue in the near future. Lack of progress in tobacco-related mortality in women underlines the importance of female-specific anti-tobacco policies.

Objective This study aimed to evaluate and quantify the relationship between coffee and gastric cancer using a uniquely large dataset from an international consortium of observational studies on gastric cancer, including data from 18 studies, for a total of 8198 cases and 21 419 controls. Methods A two-stage approach was used to obtain the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for coffee drinkers versus never or rare drinkers. A one-stage logistic mixed-effects model with a random intercept for each study was used to estimate the dose-response relationship. Estimates were adjusted for sex, age and the main recognized risk factors for gastric cancer. Results Compared to never or rare coffee drinkers, the estimated pooled OR for coffee drinkers was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.94-1.13). When the amount of coffee intake was considered, the pooled ORs were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.03) for drinkers of 1-2 cups per day, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.82-1.10) for 3-4 cups, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.79-1.15) for five or more cups. An OR of 1.20 (95% CI, 0.91-1.58) was found for heavy coffee drinkers (seven or more cups of caffeinated coffee per day). A positive association emerged for high coffee intake (five or more cups per day) for gastric cardia cancer only. Conclusions These findings better quantify the previously available evidence of the absence of a relevant association between coffee consumption and gastric cancer.

Background Marked reductions in childhood cancer mortality occurred over the last decades in high‐income countries and, to a lesser degree, in middle‐income countries. This study aimed to monitor mortality trends in the Americas and Australasia, focusing on areas showing unsatisfactory trends. Methods Age‐standardized mortality rates per 100,000 children (aged 0‐14 years) from 1990 to 2017 (or the last available calendar year) were computed for all neoplasms and 8 leading childhood cancers in countries from the Americas and Australasia, using data from the World Health Organization database. A joinpoint regression was used to identify changes in slope of mortality trends for all neoplasms, leukemia, and neoplasms of the central nervous system (CNS) for major countries. Results Over the last decades, childhood cancer mortality continued to decrease by approximately 2% to 3% per year in Australasian countries (ie, Japan, Korea, and Australia), by approximately 1.5% to 2% in North America and Chile, and 1% in Argentina. Other Latin American countries did not show any substantial decrease. Leukemia mortality declined in most countries, whereas less favorable trends were registered for CNS neoplasms, particularly in Latin America. Around 2016, death rates from all neoplasms were 4 to 6 per 100,000 boys and 3 to 4 per 100,000 girls in Latin America, and 2 to 3 per 100,000 boys and approximately 2 per 100,000 girls in North America and Australasia. Conclusions Childhood cancer mortality trends declined steadily in North America and Australasia, whereas they were less favorable in most Latin American countries. Priority must be given to closing the gap by providing high‐quality care for all children with cancer worldwide. Lay Summary Advances in childhood cancer management have substantially improved the burden of these neoplasms over the past 40 years, particularly in high‐income countries.This study aimed to monitor recent trends in America and Australasia using mortality data from the World Health Organization.Trends in childhood cancer mortality continued to decline in high‐income countries by approximately 2% to 3% per year in Japan, Korea, and Australia, and 1% to 2% in North America.Only a few Latin American countries showed favorable trends, including Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, whereas other countries with limited resources still lagged behind., Childhood cancer mortality trends continued to be favorable in high‐income countries with declines by 1% to 3% per year, whereas less favorable trends emerged in most Latin American countries, with a few exceptions (ie, Argentina, Chile, and more recently, Mexico). Priority must be given to initiatives to close the gap by providing high‐quality care for all children with cancer worldwide.

Background After‐Action Reviews (AARs) are management tools used to evaluate the response to public health emergencies at the national and subnational level. Aim of this study is to apply available AAR models to assess and critically appraise COVID‐19 response of San Raffaele Scientific Institute, a large university hospital in Milan, Italy. Methods We designed an AAR based on the key‐informant interview format, following the methodology proposed by the 2019 World Health Organization Guidance for AAR. After systematic assessment of the hospital reorganization, we conducted 36 semi‐structured interviews to professionals with executive, clinical, technical and administrative roles. We designed an ad‐hoc questionnaire exploring four areas: (i) staff management; (ii) logistics and supplies; (iii) COVID‐19 diagnosis and clinical management; (iv) communication. Results Overall, the hospital response was evaluated as effective and sufficiently prompt. Participants stressed the relevance of: (i) strong governance and coordination; (ii) readiness and availability of healthcare personnel; (iii) definition of a model of care based on a multidisciplinary approach. Challenges were reported for communication management and staff training. Conclusions This study is one of the first applications of the AAR to the COVID‐19 response in hospital settings, which can be successfully adapted or scaled up to other settings in order to implement preparedness strategies for future public health emergencies.

Background We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. Materials and methods We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021. Results We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (−6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (−4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (−7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (−3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988. Conclusion Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

Objective: To illustrate trends in sex ratios in epithelial cancer mortality in the EU, USA, and Japan, with a focus on age-specific and cohort patterns. Methods: We obtained certified deaths and resident populations from the World Health Organisation for the period of 1970&ndash, 2014 for the USA, Japan, and the EU for 12 epithelial cancer sites. From these, we calculated both the age-specific and age-standardised male-to-female mortality sex ratios. We applied an age-period-cohort model to the sex ratios in order to disentangle the effects of age, period of death, and birth cohort. Results: Age-standardised mortality sex ratios were found to be unfavourable to males, apart from thyroid cancer. The highest standardised rates were in laryngeal cancer: 7&middot, 7 in the 1970s in the USA, 17&middot, 4 in the 1980s in the EU, and 16&middot, 8 in the 2000s in Japan. Cohort patterns likely to be due to excess smoking (1890 cohort) and drinking (1940 cohort) in men were identified in the USA, and were present but less defined in the EU and Japan for the oral cavity, oesophagus, liver, pancreas, larynx, lung, bladder, and kidney. Conclusion: Mortality sex ratio patterns are partly explained by the differences in exposure to known and avoidable risk factors. These are mostly tobacco, alcohol, and obesity/overweight, as well as other lifestyle-related factors.

To provide an up-to-date overview of recent trends in mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer, we analyzed death certification data for 61 countries worldwide provided by the World Health Organization in 2010–2015, and, for selected most populous countries, over the period 1970–2016. For 12 largest countries, we analyzed incidence derived from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents in 1960–2012 for all oral and pharyngeal cancers and by subsites. In 2015, male age-standardized (world population) death rates per 100,000 were 5.03 in the European Union (EU), 8.33 in the Russian Federation, 2.53 in the United States (USA), and 3.04 in Japan; corresponding rates in women were 1.23, 1.23, 0.82, and 0.76. Male mortality decreased over the last decades in several European countries, with earlier and sharper declines in southern Europe; conversely, mortality was still increasing in a few eastern European countries and the United Kingdom. Mortality in men also decreased in Argentina, Australia, and Hong Kong, while it leveled off over more recent calendar years in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, as well as in Australia and the USA. Female mortality slightly rose in various European countries. Overall incidence trends in the largest countries were broadly consistent with mortality ones, but oropharyngeal cancer incidence rose in many countries. Changes in tobacco and alcohol exposure in men over the last decades likely explain the favorable trends in oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality and incidence observed in selected countries worldwide, while increased human papillomavirus infection is likely responsible for the rise in oropharyngeal cancer incidence.

Background We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer. Materials and methods We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970–2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models. Results EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (−6.7%) and 9.2 in women (−7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s. Conclusion We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and—above age 50 years—organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

Background: Predicted cancer mortality figures and rates are useful for public health planning. Materials and methods: We retrieved cancer death certification data for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers from the World Health Organization (WHO) database and population data from WHO and United Nations Population Division databases. We obtained figures for Russia, Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, and Australia in 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths by age group and age-standardized rates (world population) for 2018 by applying a linear regression to mortality data of each age group over the most recent trend segment identified by a joinpoint regression model. Results: Russia had the highest predicted total cancer mortality rates, 158.5/100000 men and 84.1/100000 women. Men in the Philippines showed the lowest rates for 2018 (84.6/100000) and Korean males the most favourable predicted fall (21% between 2012 and 2018). Women in Korea had the lowest total cancer predicted rate (52.5/100000). Between 1993 and 2018, i.e. by applying the 1993 rates to populations in subsequent years, a substantial number of cancer deaths was avoided in Russia (1000000 deaths, 821000 in men and 179000 in women), Israel (40000 deaths, 21000 in men and 19000 in women), Hong Kong (63000 deaths, 40000 in men and 23000 in women), Japan (651000 deaths, 473000 in men and 178000 in women), Korea (327000 deaths, 250000 in men and 77000 in women), and Australia (181000 deaths, 125000 in men and 56000 in women). No appreciable reduction in cancer deaths was found in the Philippines. Conclusion: Overall, we predicted falls in cancer mortality. However, these are less marked and later compared with the European Union and United States. Substantial numbers of deaths were avoided in all countries considered except the Philippines. Lung cancer mortality remains exceedingly high in Russian men, despite recent falls.