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ObjectiveData from 19 years of national dengue surveillance in Cambodia (2002-2020) were analyzed to describe trends in dengue case characteristics and incidence.MethodsGeneralized additive models were fitted to dengue case incidence and characteristics (mean age, case phenotype, fatality) over time. Dengue incidence in a pediatric cohort study (2018-2020) was compared to national data during the same period to evaluate disease under-estimation by national surveillance.FindingsDuring 2002-2020, there were 353,270 cases of dengue (average age-adjusted incidence 1.75 cases/ 1,000 persons/ year) recorded in Cambodia, with an estimated 2.1-fold increase in case incidence between 2002 and 2020 (slope = 0.0058, SE = 0.0021, p = 0.006). Mean age of infected individuals increased from 5.8 years in 2002 to 9.1 years in 2020 (slope = 0.18, SE = 0.088, p ConclusionDengue incidence in Cambodia is increasing and disease is shifting to older pediatric populations. National surveillance continues to under-estimate case numbers. Future interventions should account for disease under-estimation and shifting demographics for scaling and to target appropriate age groups.

The genus Henipavirus (family Paramyxoviridae) is currently comprised of seven viruses, four of which have demonstrated prior evidence of zoonotic capacity. These include the biosafety level 4 agents Hendra (HeV) and Nipah (NiV) viruses, which circulate naturally in pteropodid fruit bats. Here, we describe and characterize Angavokely virus (AngV), a divergent henipavirus identified in urine samples from wild, Madagascar fruit bats. We report the near-complete 16,740 nt genome of AngV, which encodes the six major henipavirus structural proteins (nucleocapsid, phosphoprotein, matrix, fusion, glycoprotein, and L polymerase). Within the phosphoprotein (P) gene, we identify an alternative start codon encoding the AngV C protein and a putative mRNA editing site where the insertion of one or two guanine residues encodes, respectively, additional V and W proteins. In other paramyxovirus systems, C, V, and W are accessory proteins involved in antagonism of host immune responses during infection. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that AngV is ancestral to all four previously described bat henipaviruses—HeV, NiV, Cedar virus (CedV), and Ghanaian bat virus (GhV)—but evolved more recently than rodent- and shrew-derived henipaviruses, Mojiang (MojV), Gamak (GAKV), and Daeryong (DARV) viruses. Predictive structure-based alignments suggest that AngV is unlikely to bind ephrin receptors, which mediate cell entry for all other known bat henipaviruses. Identification of the AngV receptor is needed to clarify the virus’s potential host range. The presence of V and W proteins in the AngV genome suggest that the virus could be pathogenic following zoonotic spillover.ImportanceHenipaviruses include highly pathogenic emerging zoonotic viruses, derived from bat, rodent, and shrew reservoirs. Bat-borne Hendra (HeV) and Nipah (NiV) are the most well-known henipaviruses, for which no effective antivirals or vaccines for humans have been described. Here we report the discovery and characterization of a novel henipavirus, Angavokely virus (AngV), isolated from wild fruit bats in Madagascar. Genomic characterization of AngV reveals all major features associated with pathogenicity in other henipaviruses, suggesting that AngV could be pathogenic following spillover to human hosts. Our work suggests that AngV is an ancestral bat henipavirus which likely uses viral entry pathways distinct from those previously described for HeV and NiV. In Madagascar, bats are consumed as a source of human food, presenting opportunities for cross-species transmission. Characterization of novel henipaviruses and documentation of their pathogenic and zoonotic potential are essential to predicting and preventing the emergence of future zoonoses that cause pandemics.

Across the Global South, wildlife is an important source of nutrition and income, particularly for rural communities. While wildlife consumption provides a valuable source of nutrition, high levels of hunting can endanger wildlife species. In the Makira region of north-eastern Madagascar, human health is threatened by food insecurity and malnutrition, and spiny tenrecs are a crucial source of subsistence bushmeat with 91% of households consuming tenrecs at least once per year. Moreover, Makira’s human populations are increasing, resulting in forest decline and degradation. In order to inform conservation and public health efforts, we investigated the influence of hunting, habitat loss and forest degradation on spiny tenrec population dynamics in the Makira region. We collected data on tenrec population densities as well as hunting and consumption by humans in 51 communities. We used these data to conduct a population viability analysis for the two most commonly hunted spiny tenrecs (Tenrec ecaudatus and Setifer setosus). We found that current harvest rates for these species are generally sustainable in the Makira region, largely due to tenrecs’ extraordinary fecundity. However, even assuming no change in current hunting rates, tenrec populations could become threatened if fecundity were to decline or background mortality to increase, both possible scenarios under future trajectories of habitat loss and degradation. We find that any future increase in hunting-induced mortality rates for tenrecs are similarly unsustainable – and likely to occur as human populations expand and hunting areas decline. We conclude that there is a vanishing window of opportunity to sustainably manage tenrec hunting in northeastern Madagascar in order to avoid negative conservation and human health outcomes.

The year 2019 witnessed the highest number of dengue cases ever reported globally. We analyzed epidemiological, serological, and phylogenomic data to investigate the drivers of the 2019 epidemic in Cambodia. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19-year national dataset, we identified an overall trend of declining annual force of infection (FOI) for dengue virus (DENV) in Cambodia, interspersed with FOI spikes corresponding to epidemic year caseloads that exceeded demographic predictions. We constructed time-resolved phylogenetic trees with 105 DENV genomes sequenced from the 2019 Cambodian epidemic, paired with historical Southeast Asian data, to document the first-recorded introduction of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype into Cambodia. This introduction yielded highly localized transmission and decreased genomic diversity when compared to endemic DENV-1, supporting the hypothesis of epidemic invasion. Introduction of this genetically distinct lineage into a population with limited prior immunity—paired with a spike in FOI—was a key driver of the 2019 Cambodian epidemic.These studies were registered at clinicaltrials.gov under NCT04034264 and NCT03534245.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus with suspected bat origins, highlights a critical need for heightened understanding of the mechanisms by which bats maintain potentially zoonotic viruses at the population level and transmit these pathogens across species. We review mechanistic models, which test hypotheses of the transmission dynamics that underpin viral maintenance in bat systems. A search of the literature identified only twenty-five mechanistic models of bat-virus systems published to date, derived from twenty-three original studies. Most models focused on rabies and related lyssaviruses (eleven), followed by Ebola-like filoviruses (seven), Hendra and Nipah-like henipaviruses (five), and coronaviruses (two). The vast majority of studies has modelled bat virus transmission dynamics at the population level, though a few nested within-host models of viral pathogenesis in population-level frameworks, and one study focused on purely within-host dynamics. Population-level studies described bat virus systems from every continent but Antarctica, though most were concentrated in North America and Africa; indeed, only one simulation model with no associated data was derived from an Asian bat-virus system. In fact, of the twenty-five models identified, only ten population-level models were fitted to data – emphasizing an overall dearth of empirically derived epidemiological inference in bat virus systems. Within the data fitted subset, the vast majority of models were fitted to serological data only, highlighting extensive uncertainty in our understanding of the transmission status of a wild bat. Here, we discuss similarities and differences in the approach and findings of previously published bat virus models and make recommendations for improvement in future work.

Significance The clear need to mitigate zoonotic risk has fueled increased viral discovery in specific reservoir host taxa. We show that a combination of viral and reservoir traits can predict zoonotic virus virulence and transmissibility in humans, supporting the hypothesis that bats harbor exceptionally virulent zoonoses. However, pandemic prevention requires thinking beyond zoonotic capacity, virulence, and transmissibility to consider collective “burden” on human health. For this, viral discovery targeting specific reservoirs may be inefficient as death burden correlates with viral, not reservoir, traits, and depends on context-specific epidemiological dynamics across and beyond the human–animal interface. These findings suggest that longitudinal studies of viral dynamics in reservoir and spillover host populations may offer the most effective strategy for mitigating zoonotic risk.

As the national reference laboratory for febrile illness in Madagascar, we processed samples from the first epidemic wave of COVID-19, between March and September 2020. We fit generalized additive models to cycle threshold (Ct) value data from our RT-qPCR platform, demonstrating a peak in high viral load, low-Ct value infections temporally coincident with peak epidemic growth rates estimated in real time from publicly-reported incidence data and retrospectively from our own laboratory testing data across three administrative regions. We additionally demonstrate a statistically significant effect of duration of time since infection onset on Ct value, suggesting that Ct value can be used as a biomarker of the stage at which an individual is sampled in the course of an infection trajectory. As an extension, the population-level Ct distribution at a given timepoint can be used to estimate population-level epidemiological dynamics. We illustrate this concept by adopting a recently-developed, nested modeling approach, embedding a within-host viral kinetics model within a population-level Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework, to mechanistically estimate epidemic growth rates from cross-sectional Ct distributions across three regions in Madagascar. We find that Ct-derived epidemic growth estimates slightly precede those derived from incidence data across the first epidemic wave, suggesting delays in surveillance and case reporting. Our findings indicate that public reporting of Ct values could offer an important resource for epidemiological inference in low surveillance settings, enabling forecasts of impending incidence peaks in regions with limited case reporting.

Bats are reservoirs for zoonotic viruses, which they tolerate without experiencing disease. Research focused on deciphering mechanisms of virus tolerance in bats has rarely considered the influence of their gastrointestinal tract (GIT) microbiome. In mammals, GIT microbiomes influence infections through their effect on host physiology, immunity, nutrition, and behavior. Bat GIT microbiomes more closely resemble the Proteobacteria-dominated GIT microbiomes of birds than those of other mammals. As an adaptation to flight, bats have rapid GIT transit times which may reduce the stability of their microbiome, constrain nutrient uptake, and affect pathogen exposure and evolution of tolerance mechanisms. Experimental and longitudinal studies are needed to understand the function of bats' GIT microbiomes and their role in modulating viral infection dynamics.

Better methods to predict and prevent the emergence of zoonotic viruses could support future efforts to reduce the risk of epidemics. We propose a network science framework for understanding and predicting human and animal susceptibility to viral infections. Related approaches have so far helped to identify basic biological rules that govern cross-species transmission and structure the global virome. We highlight ways to make modelling both accurate and actionable, and discuss the barriers that prevent researchers from translating viral ecology into public health policies that could prevent future pandemics.

In the past two decades, three coronaviruses with ancestral origins in bats have emerged and caused widespread outbreaks in humans, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first SARS epidemic in 2002–2003, the appreciation of bats as key hosts of zoonotic coronaviruses has advanced rapidly. More than 4,000 coronavirus sequences from 14 bat families have been identified, yet the true diversity of bat coronaviruses is probably much greater. Given that bats are the likely evolutionary source for several human coronaviruses, including strains that cause mild upper respiratory tract disease, their role in historic and future pandemics requires ongoing investigation. We review and integrate information on bat–coronavirus interactions at the molecular, tissue, host and population levels. We identify critical gaps in knowledge of bat coronaviruses, which relate to spillover and pandemic risk, including the pathways to zoonotic spillover, the infection dynamics within bat reservoir hosts, the role of prior adaptation in intermediate hosts for zoonotic transmission and the viral genotypes or traits that predict zoonotic capacity and pandemic potential. Filling these knowledge gaps may help prevent the next pandemic., Bats harbour a multitude of coronaviruses and owing to their diversity and wide distribution are prime reservoir hosts of emerging viruses. Ruiz-Aravena, McKee and colleagues analyse the currently available information on bat coronaviruses and discuss their role in recent and potential future spillovers.

The island nation of Madagascar is home to three endemic species of Old World Fruit Bat in the family Pteropodidae:Pteropus rufus, Eidolon dupreanum, andRousettus madagascariensis, all three of which are IUCN Red Listed under some category of threat. To inform conservation efforts to model population viability for these threatened species, as well understand the mechanisms underpinning persistence of several potentially zoonotic pathogens hosted by these bats, we here define the seasonal limits of a staggered annual birth pulse across the three species. Our field studies in central-eastern Madagascar indicate that this annual birth pulse takes place in September/October forP. rufus, November forE. dupreanum, and December forR. madagascariensis. Juvenile development periods vary across the three Malagasy pteropodids, resulting in near-synchronous weaning of pups for all species in late January-February at the height of the fruiting season for Madagascar, a pattern characteristic of most mammalian frugivores on the island. We here document the size range in morphological traits for the three Malagasy fruit bat species; these traits span the range of those known for pteropodids more broadly, withP. rufusandE. dupreanumamong the larger of recorded species andR. madagascariensisamong the smaller. All three species demonstrate subtle sexual dimorphism in observed traits with larger-bodied males vs. females. We explore seasonal variation in adult body condition by comparing observed body mass with body mass predicted by forearm length, demonstrating that pregnant females add weight during staggered gestation periods and males lose weight during the nutritionally-deficit Malagasy winter. Finally, we quantify forearm, tibia, and ear length growth rates in juvenile bats, demonstrating both faster growth and more protracted development times for the largestP. rufusspecies. The longer development period for the already-threatenedP. rufusfurther jeopardizes this species’ conservation status as human hunting of bats for subsistence is particularly detrimental to population viability during reproductive periods. The more extreme seasonal variation in the mass to forearm relationship forP. rufusmay also modulate immune function, an important consideration given these bats’ roles as reservoir hosts for several high profile viral families known to cause severe disease in humans. Our work highlights the importance of longitudinal field studies in collecting critical data for mammalian conservation efforts and human public health alike.

The progression of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Africa has so far been heterogeneous and the full impact is not yet well understood. Here, we describe the genomic epidemiology using a dataset of 8746 genomes from 33 African countries and two overseas territories. We show that the epidemics in most countries were initiated by importations, predominantly from Europe, which diminished following the early introduction of international travel restrictions. As the pandemic progressed, ongoing transmission in many countries and increasing mobility led to the emergence and spread within the continent of many variants of concern and interest, such as B.1.351, B.1.525, A.23.1 and C.1.1. Although distorted by low sampling numbers and blind-spots, the findings highlight that Africa must not be left behind in the global pandemic response, otherwise it could become a breeding ground for new variants.

Bats are natural reservoirs for bothAlpha- andBetacoronavirusesand the hypothesized original hosts of five of seven known zoonotic coronaviruses. To date, the vast majority of bat coronavirus research has been concentrated in Asia, though coronaviruses are globally distributed; indeed, SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2-relatedBetacoronavirusesin the subgenusSarbecovirushave been identified circulating inRhinolophidbats in both Africa and Europe, despite the relative dearth of surveillance in these regions. As part of a long-term study examining the dynamics of potentially zoonotic viruses in three species of endemic Madagascar fruit bat (Pteropus rufus, Eidolon dupreanum, Rousettus madagascariensis), we carried out metagenomic Next Generation Sequencing (mNGS) on urine, throat, and fecal samples obtained from wild-caught individuals. We report detection of RNA derived fromBetacoronavirussubgenusNobecovirusin fecal samples from all three species and describe full genome sequences of novelNobecovirusesinP. rufusandR. madagascariensis. Phylogenetic analysis indicates the existence of five distinctNobecovirusclades, one of which is defined by the highly divergent sequence reported here fromP. rufusbats. MadagascarNobecovirusesderived fromP. rufusandR. madagascariensisdemonstrate, respectively, Asian and African phylogeographic origins, mirroring those of their fruit bat hosts. Bootscan recombination analysis indicates significant selection has taken place in the spike, nucleocapsid, and NS7 accessory protein regions of the genome for viruses derived from both bat hosts. Madagascar offers a unique phylogeographic nexus of bats and viruses with both Asian and African phylogeographic origins, providing opportunities for unprecedented mixing of viral groups and, potentially, recombination. As fruit bats are handled and consumed widely across Madagascar for subsistence, understanding the landscape of potentially zoonotic coronavirus circulation is essential for mitigation of future zoonotic threats.

Bats are natural reservoirs for both

Identifying virus characteristics associated with the largest public health impacts on human populations is critical to informing zoonotic risk assessments and surveillance strategies. Efforts to assess “zoonotic risk” often use trait-based analyses to identify which viral and reservoir host groups are most likely to source zoonoses but have not fully addressed how and why the impacts of zoonotic viruses vary in terms of disease severity (‘virulence’), capacity to spread within human populations (‘transmissibility’), or total human mortality (‘death burden’). We analyzed trends in human case fatality rates, transmission capacities, and total death burdens across a comprehensive dataset of mammalian and avian zoonotic viruses. Bats harbor the most virulent zoonotic viruses even when compared to birds, which alongside bats, have been hypothesized to be “special” zoonotic reservoirs due to molecular adaptations that support the physiology of flight. Reservoir host groups more closely related to humans—in particular, Primates—harbor less virulent, but more highly transmissible viruses. Importantly, disproportionately high human death burden, arguably the most important metric of zoonotic risk, is not associated with any animal reservoir, including bats. Our data demonstrate that mechanisms driving death burdens are diverse and often contradict trait-based predictions. Ultimately, total human mortality is dependent on context-specific epidemiological dynamics, which are shaped by a combination of viral traits and conditions in the animal host population and across and beyond the human-animal interface. Understanding the conditions that predict high zoonotic burden in humans will require longitudinal studies of epidemiological dynamics in wildlife and human populations.Significance statementThe clear need to mitigate zoonotic risk has fueled increased viral discovery in specific reservoir host taxa. We show that a combination of viral and reservoir traits can predict zoonotic virus virulence and transmissibility in humans, supporting the hypothesis that bats harbor exceptionally virulent zoonoses. However, pandemic prevention requires thinking beyond zoonotic capacity, virulence, and transmissibility to consider collective ‘burden’ on human health. For this, viral discovery targeting specific reservoirs may be inefficient as death burden correlates with viral, not reservoir, traits, and depends on context-specific epidemiological dynamics across and beyond the human-animal interface. These findings suggest that longitudinal studies of viral dynamics in reservoir and spillover host populations may offer the most effective strategy for mitigating zoonotic risk.

Author(s): Randremanana, Rindra Vatosoa; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Rakotondramanga, Jean Marius; Razanajatovo, Norosoa Harline; Mangahasimbola, Reziky Tiandraza; Randriambolamanantsoa, Tsiry Hasina; Ranaivoson, Hafaliana Christian; Rabemananjara, Harinirina Aina; Razanajatovo, Iony; Razafindratsimandresy, Richter; Rabarison, Joelinotahiana Hasina; Brook, Cara E; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Rabetombosoa, Roger Mario; Razafimanjato, Helisoa; Ahyong, Vida; Raharinosy, Vololoniaina; Raharimanga, Vaomalala; Raharinantoanina, Sandratana Jonhson; Randrianarisoa, Mirella Malala; Bernardson, Barivola; Randrianasolo, Laurence; Randriamampionona, Lea Bricette Nirina; Tato, Cristina M; DeRisi, Joseph L; Dussart, Philippe; Vololoniaina, Manuela Christophere; Randriatsarafara, Fidiniaina Mamy; Randriamanantany, Zely Arivelo; Heraud, Jean-Michel | Abstract: BackgroundFollowing the first detection of SARS-CoV-2 in passengers arriving from Europe on 19 March 2020, Madagascar took several mitigation measures to limit the spread of the virus in the country.MethodsNasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs were collected from travellers to Madagascar, suspected SARS-CoV-2 cases and contact of confirmed cases. Swabs were tested at the national reference laboratory using real-time RT-PCR. Data collected from patients were entered in an electronic database for subsequent statistical analysis. All distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases were mapped, and six genomes of viruses were fully sequenced.ResultsOverall, 26,415 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 18 March and 18 September 2020, of whom 21.0% (5,553/26,145) returned positive. Among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, the median age was 39nyears (IQR: 28-52), and 56.6% (3,311/5,553) were asymptomatic at the time of sampling. The probability of testing positive increased with age with the highest adjusted odds ratio of 2.2 [95% CI: 1.9-2.5] for individuals aged 49nyears and more. Viral strains sequenced belong to clades 19A, 20A and 20B indicative of several independent introduction of viruses.ConclusionsOur study describes the first wave of the COVID-19 in Madagascar. Despite early strategies in place Madagascar could not avoid the introduction and spread of the virus. More studies are needed to estimate the true burden of disease and make public health recommendations for a better preparation to another wave.

SummaryRegular surveillance testing of asymptomatic individuals for SARS-CoV-2 has played a vital role in SARS-CoV-2 outbreak prevention on college and university campuses. Here we describe the voluntary saliva testing program instituted at the University of California, Berkeley during an early period of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020. The program was administered as a research study ahead of clinical implementation, enabling us to launch surveillance testing while continuing to optimize the assay. Results of both the testing protocol itself and the study participants’ experience show how the program succeeded in providing routine, robust testing capable of contributing to outbreak prevention within a campus community and offer strategies for encouraging participation and a sense of civic responsibility.

Seven zoonoses — human infections of animal origin — have emerged from the Coronaviridae family in the past century, including three viruses responsible for significant human mortality (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2) in the past twenty years alone. These three viruses, in addition to two older CoV zoonoses (HCoV-229E and HCoV-NL63) are believed to be originally derived from wild bat reservoir species. We review the molecular biology of the bat-derived Alpha- and Betacoronavirus genera, highlighting features that contribute to their potential for cross-species emergence, including the use of well-conserved mammalian host cell machinery for cell entry and a unique capacity for adaptation to novel host environments after host switching. The adaptive capacity of coronaviruses largely results from their large genomes, which reduce the risk of deleterious mutational errors and facilitate range-expanding recombination events by offering heightened redundancy in essential genetic material. Large CoV genomes are made possible by the unique proofreading capacity encoded for their RNA-dependent polymerase. We find that bat-borne SARS-related coronaviruses in the subgenus Sarbecovirus, the source clade for SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, present a particularly poignant pandemic threat, due to the extraordinary viral genetic diversity represented among several sympatric species of their horseshoe bat hosts. To date, Sarbecovirus surveillance has been almost entirely restricted to China. More vigorous field research efforts tracking the circulation of Sarbecoviruses specifically and Betacoronaviruses more generally is needed across a broader global range if we are to avoid future repeats of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Bats host virulent zoonotic viruses without experiencing disease. A mechanistic understanding of the impact of bats’ virus hosting capacities, including uniquely constitutive immune pathways, on cellular-scale viral dynamics is needed to elucidate zoonotic emergence. We carried out virus infectivity assays on bat cell lines expressing induced and constitutive immune phenotypes, then developed a theoretical model of our in vitro system, which we fit to empirical data. Best fit models recapitulated expected immune phenotypes for representative cell lines, supporting robust antiviral defenses in bat cells that correlated with higher estimates for within-host viral propagation rates. In general, heightened immune responses limit pathogen-induced cellular morbidity, which can facilitate the establishment of rapidly-propagating persistent infections within-host. Rapidly-transmitting viruses that have evolved with bat immune systems will likely cause enhanced virulence following emergence into secondary hosts with immune systems that diverge from those unique to bats., eLife digest Bats can carry viruses that are deadly to other mammals without themselves showing serious symptoms. In fact, bats are natural reservoirs for viruses that have some of the highest fatality rates of any viruses that people acquire from wild animals – including rabies, Ebola and the SARS coronavirus. Bats have a suite of antiviral defenses that keep the amount of virus in check. For example, some bats have an antiviral immune response called the interferon pathway perpetually switched on. In most other mammals, having such a hyper-vigilant immune response would cause harmful inflammation. Bats, however, have adapted anti-inflammatory traits that protect them from such harm, include the loss of certain genes that normally promote inflammation. However, no one has previously explored how these unique antiviral defenses of bats impact the viruses themselves. Now, Brook et al. have studied this exact question using bat cells grown in the laboratory. The experiments made use of cells from one bat species – the black flying fox – in which the interferon pathway is always on, and another – the Egyptian fruit bat – in which this pathway is only activated during an infection. The bat cells were infected with three different viruses, and then Brook et al. observed how the interferon pathway helped keep the infections in check, before creating a computer model of this response. The experiments and model helped reveal that the bats’ defenses may have a potential downside for other animals, including humans. In both bat species, the strongest antiviral responses were countered by the virus spreading more quickly from cell to cell. This suggests that bat immune defenses may drive the evolution of faster transmitting viruses, and while bats are well protected from the harmful effects of their own prolific viruses, other creatures like humans are not. The findings may help to explain why bats are often the source for viruses that are deadly in humans. Learning more about bats' antiviral defenses and how they drive virus evolution may help scientists develop better ways to predict, prevent or limit the spread of viruses from bats to humans. More studies are needed in bats to help these efforts. In the meantime, the experiments highlight the importance of warning people to avoid direct contact with wild bats.

Letter to the Editor COVID-19 has spread around the globe, with massive impacts on global human health, national economies and conservation activities. In the timely editorial about conservation in the maelstrom of COVID-19, Evans et al. (2020) urged the conservation community to collaborate with other relevant sectors of society in the search for solutions to the challenges posed by the current pandemic, as well as future zoonotic outbreaks. Considering the association of COVID 19 with bats (Zhou et al., 2020), bat conservationists will undoubtedly be key actors in this dialogue, and thus an action plan on how best to adjust bat conservation to this new reality, alongside a transdisciplinary research agenda, are clear priorities info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The high proportion of transmission events derived from asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections make SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent in COVID-19, difficult to control through the traditional non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of symptom-based isolation and contact tracing. As a consequence, many US universities developed asymptomatic surveillance testing labs, to augment NPIs and control outbreaks on campus throughout the 2020-2021 academic year (AY); several of those labs continue to support asymptomatic surveillance efforts on campus in AY2021-2022. At the height of the pandemic, we built a stochastic branching process model of COVID-19 dynamics at UC Berkeley to advise optimal control strategies in a university environment. Our model combines behavioral interventions in the form of group size limits to deter superspreading, symptom-based isolation, and contact tracing, with asymptomatic surveillance testing. We found that behavioral interventions offer a cost-effective means of epidemic control: group size limits of six or fewer greatly reduce superspreading, and rapid isolation of symptomatic infections can halt rising epidemics, depending on the frequency of asymptomatic transmission in the population. Surveillance testing can overcome uncertainty surrounding asymptomatic infections, with the most effective approaches prioritizing frequent testing with rapid turnaround time to isolation over test sensitivity. Importantly, contact tracing amplifies population-level impacts of all infection isolations, making even delayed interventions effective. Combination of behavior-based NPIs and asymptomatic surveillance also reduces variation in daily case counts to produce more predictable epidemics. Furthermore, targeted, intensive testing of a minority of high transmission risk individuals can effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic for the surrounding population. Even in some highly vaccinated university settings in AY2021-2022, asymptomatic surveillance testing offers an effective means of identifying breakthrough infections, halting onward transmission, and reducing total caseload. We offer this blueprint and easy-to-implement modeling tool to other academic or professional communities navigating optimal return-to-work strategies., Graphical abstract

International audience; Bats are reservoirs for emerging human pathogens, including Hendra and Nipah henipaviruses and Ebola and Marburg filoviruses. These viruses demonstrate predictable patterns in seasonality and age structure across multiple systems; previous work suggests that they may circulate in Madagascar's endemic fruit bats, which are widely consumed as human food. We aimed to (a) document the extent of henipa- and filovirus exposure among Malagasy fruit bats, (b) explore seasonality in seroprevalence and serostatus in these bat populations and (c) compare mechanistic hypotheses for possible transmission dynamics underlying these data. To this end, we amassed and analysed a unique dataset documenting longitudinal serological henipa- and filovirus dynamics in three Madagascar fruit bat species. We uncovered serological evidence of exposure to Hendra-/Nipah-related henipaviruses in Eidolon dupreanum, Pteropus rufus and Rousettus madagascariensis, to Cedar-related henipaviruses in E. dupreanum and R. madagascariensis and to Ebola-related filoviruses in P. rufus and R. madagascariensis. We demonstrated significant seasonality in population-level seroprevalence and individual serostatus for multiple viruses across these species, linked to the female reproductive calendar. An age-structured subset of the data highlighted evidence of waning maternal antibodies in neonates, increasing seroprevalence in young and decreasing seroprevalence late in life. Comparison of mechanistic epidemiological models fit to these data offered support for transmission hypotheses permitting waning antibodies but retained immunity in adult-age bats. Our findings suggest that bats may seasonally modulate mechanisms of pathogen control, with consequences for population-level transmission. Additionally, we narrow the field of candidate transmission hypotheses by which bats are presumed to host and transmit potentially zoonotic viruses globally.

Livestock represent a fundamental economic and nutritional resource for many households in the developing world; however, a high burden of infectious disease limits their production potential. Here we present an ecological framework for estimating the burden of poultry disease based on coupled models of infectious disease and economics. The framework is novel, as it values humans and livestock as co-contributors to household wellbeing, incorporating feedbacks between poultry production and human capital in disease burden estimates. We parameterize this coupled ecological–economic model with household-level data to provide an estimate of the overall burden of poultry disease for the Ifanadiana District in Madagascar, where over 72% of households rely on poultry for economic and food security. Our models indicate that households may lose 10–25% of their monthly income under current disease conditions. Results suggest that advancements in poultry health may serve to support income generation through improvements in both human and animal health., Highlights • We describe a new framework that couples models of infectious disease ecology and economics. • Using this framework, we estimate the burden of poultry disease on rural households in Madagascar. • We find that monthly household income is reduced by 10–25% in the majority of model simulations. • Feedbacks between human and poultry productivity amplify the economic impact of poultry disease.

Many species of large wildlife have declined drastically worldwide. These reductions often lead to profound shifts in the ecology of entire communities and ecosystems. However, the effects of these large-wildlife declines on other taxa likely hinge upon both underlying abiotic properties of these systems and on the types of secondary anthropogenic changes associated with wildlife loss, making impacts difficult to predict. To better understand how these important contextual factors determine the consequences of large-wildlife declines on other animals in a community, we examined the effects of three common forms of large-wildlife loss (removal without replacement [using fences], removal followed by replacement with domestic stock, and removal accompanied by crop agricultural use) on small-mammal abundance, diversity, and community composition, in landscapes that varied in several abiotic attributes (rainfall, soil fertility, land-use intensity) in central Kenya. We found that small-mammal communities were indeed heavily impacted by all forms of large-wildlife decline, showing, on average: (1) higher densities, (2) lower species richness per site, and (3) different species assemblages in sites from which large wildlife were removed. However, the nature and magnitude of these effects were strongly context dependent. Rainfall, type of land-use change, and the interaction of these two factors were key predictors of both the magnitude and type of responses of small mammals. The strongest effects, particularly abundance responses, tended to be observed in low-rainfall areas. Whereas isolated wildlife removal primarily led to increased small-mammal abundance, wildlife removal associated with secondary uses (agriculture, domestic stock) had much more variable effects on abundance and stronger impacts on diversity and composition. Collectively, these results (1) highlight the importance of context in determining the impacts of large-wildlife decline on small-mammal communities, (2) emphasize the challenges in extrapolating results from controlled experimental studies to predict the effects of wildlife declines that are accompanied by secondary land-uses, and (3) suggest that, because of the context-dependent nature of the responses to large-wildlife decline, large-wildlife status alone cannot be reliably used to predict small-mammal community changes.

Introduction: Bats are among the most poorly studied mammals, despite their diversity and important ecological services. The ongoing Ebola epidemic in western Africa underscores the increasingly recognized role of bats as reservoirs for emerging human diseases. An understanding of the mechanisms supporting pathogen maintenance in bat hosts is essential to informing future public health measures, as well as conservation efforts for wild bat populations. This is crucial in Africa, where the human population is burgeoning, increasing habitat loss and human contact with wildlife. The importance of natural history . The natural history and ecology of bats, especially in Africa, is poorly understood, making responsible management decisions difficult. Metrics for guiding management of pathogens and their host populations, such as critical community size and minimum viable population size, often require more natural history knowledge than we currently have available. We argue that management action without adequate research can lead to counterproductive results. In the past, fear-based management responses such as culling campaigns have counterintuitively increased the prevalence of pathogens in the target host population, as has been observed in the vampire bat-rabies system and the Egyptian fruit bat-Marburg system. Bat conservation in the time of Ebola . Many of the same anthropogenic stressors that are threatening bat populations, such as habitat loss and hunting, are also likely drivers of zoonotic pathogen emergence. Given this, and given that reducing bat populations can increase rather than decrease pathogen prevalence, we argue that conservation measures for bats should be strengthened in this time of Ebola. We offer a few potential first steps. Conclusions and Future Directions: We advocate the precautionary principle, and encourage significant and urgent increases in natural history studies, education, and conservation measures for African bats. Key words: bat conservation, Chiroptera, culling, Ebola, natural history, zoonotic pathogens

Many species of large wildlife have declined drastically worldwide. These reductions often lead to profound shifts in the ecology of entire communities and ecosystems. However, the effects of these large-wildlife declines on other taxa likely hinge upon both underlying abiotic properties of these systems and on the types of secondary anthropogenic changes associated with wildlife loss, making impacts difficult to predict. To better understand how these important contextual factors determine the consequences of large-wildlife declines on other animals in a community, we examined the effects of three common forms of large- wildlife loss (removal without replacement (using fences), removal followed by replacement with domestic stock, and removal accompanied by crop agricultural use) on small-mammal abundance, diversity, and community composition, in landscapes that varied in several abiotic attributes (rainfall, soil fertility, land-use intensity) in central Kenya. We found that small- mammal communities were indeed heavily impacted by all forms of large-wildlife decline, showing, on average: (1) higher densities, (2) lower species richness per site, and (3) different species assemblages in sites from which large wildlife were removed. However, the nature and magnitude of these effects were strongly context dependent. Rainfall, type of land-use change, and the interaction of these two factors were key predictors of both the magnitude and type of responses of small mammals. The strongest effects, particularly abundance responses, tended to be observed in low-rainfall areas. Whereas isolated wildlife removal primarily led to increased small-mammal abundance, wildlife removal associated with secondary uses (agriculture, domestic stock) had much more variable effects on abundance and stronger impacts on diversity and composition. Collectively, these results (1) highlight the importance of context in determining the impacts of large-wildlife decline on small-mammal communities, (2) emphasize the challenges in extrapolating results from controlled experimental studies to predict the effects of wildlife declines that are accompanied by secondary land-uses, and (3) suggest that, because of the context-dependent nature of the responses to large-wildlife decline, large-wildlife status alone cannot be reliably used to predict small-mammal community changes.

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March-June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.

Historically, efforts to assess ‘zoonotic risk’ have focused mainly on quantifying the potential for cross-species emergence of viruses from animal hosts. However, viruses clearly differ in relative burden, both in terms of morbidity and mortality (virulence) incurred and the capacity for sustained human-to-human transmission. Extending previously published databases, we delineated host and viral traits predictive of human mortality associated with viral spillover, viral capacity to transmit between humans following spillover and the probability of a given virus being zoonotic. We demonstrate that increasing host phylogenetic distance from humans positively correlates with human mortality but negatively correlates with human transmissibility, suggesting that the virulence induced by viruses emerging from hosts at high phylogenetic distance may limit capacity for human transmission. Our key result is that hosts most closely related to humans harbour zoonoses of lower impact in terms of morbidity and mortality, while the most distantly related hosts—in particular, order Chiroptera (bats)—harbour highly virulent zoonoses with a lower capacity for endemic establishment in human hosts. As a whole, our results emphasize the importance of understanding how zoonoses manifest in the human population and also highlight potential risks associated with multi-host transmission chains in spillover. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’.

© 2015 Brook et al. Background: Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and is characterized by peripheral nerve damage and skin lesions. The disease is classified into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB) leprosy. The 2012 London Declaration formulated the following targets for leprosy control: (1) global interruption of transmission or elimination by 2020, and (2) reduction of grade-2 disabilities in newly detected cases to below 1 per million population at a global level by 2020. Leprosy is treatable, but diagnosis, access to treatment and treatment adherence (all necessary to curtail transmission) represent major challenges. Globally, new case detection rates for leprosy have remained fairly stable in the past decade, with India responsible for more than half of cases reported annually. Methods: We analyzed publicly available data from the Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, and fit linear mixed-effects regression models to leprosy case detection trends reported at the district level. We assessed correlation of the new district-level case detection rate for leprosy with several state-level regressors: TB incidence, BCG coverage, fraction of cases exhibiting grade 2 disability at diagnosis, fraction of cases in children, and fraction multibacillary. Results: Our analyses suggest an endemic disease in very slow decline, with substantial spatial heterogeneity at both district and state levels. Enhanced active case finding was associated with a higher case detection rate. Conclusions: Trend analysis of reported new detection rates from India does not support a thesis of rapid progress in leprosy control.

We captured, ectoparasite-combed, and blood-sampled cave-roosting Madagascan fruit bats (Eidolon dupreanum) and tree-roosting Madagascan flying foxes (Pteropus rufus) in four single-species roosts within a sympatric geographic foraging range for these species in central Madagascar. We describe infection with novel Bartonella spp. in sampled Eidolon dupreanum and associated bat flies (Cyclopodia dubia), which nest close to or within major known Bartonella lineages; simultaneously, we report the absence of Bartonella spp. in Thaumapsylla sp. fleas collected from these same bats. This represents the first documented finding of Bartonella infection in these species of bat and bat fly, as well as a new geographic record for Thaumapsylla sp. We further relate the absence of both Bartonella spp. and ectoparasites in sympatrically sampled Pteropus rufus, thus suggestive of a potential role for bat flies in Bartonella spp. transmission. These findings shed light on transmission ecology of bat-borne Bartonella spp., recently demonstrated as a potentially zoonotic pathogen., Author Summary Bartonella spp. are bacteria that inhabit the red blood cells of both human and animal hosts. Among humans, Bartonella spp. are known to cause several febrile illnesses, including Carrion’s disease (Bartonella bacilliformis), trench fever (Bartonella quintana), and cat scratch fever (Bartonella henselae), all of which are transmitted via arthropod vectors—respectively sand flies, lice, and fleas. Bats are known to host multiple Bartonella spp., including some capable of infecting humans. Some bat species are also known to host obligate ectoparasites known as bat flies (Diptera: Hippoboscoidea), which also sometimes support Bartonella spp. infections. The role of bat flies and other bat ectoparasites as vectors for Bartonella spp. transmission has been suggested, but not fully explored. We demonstrate Bartonella spp. infection in one species of Madagascar fruit bat, which hosts bat flies, simultaneously with the absence of Bartonella in a fruit bat species of overlapping range that appears not to support these ectoparasites. In light of ongoing trends of zoonotic emergence of human diseases from bat reservoirs, further understanding of the transmission dynamics of bat-borne pathogens is paramount.

Highlights • Bats experience morbidity to many extracellular but few intracellular infections. • Bats control intracellular pathogens via cellular pathways to apoptosis/autophagy. • These ROS mitigation pathways promote longevity and tumor avoidance. • Extracellular pathogen-associated morbidity in bats results from immunopathology., The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic highlights a recurring trend in the zoonotic emergence of virulent pathogens likely to come from bat reservoirs that has caused epidemiologists to ask ‘Are bats special reservoirs for emerging zoonotic pathogens?’ We collate evidence from the past decade to delineate mitochondrial mechanisms of bat physiology that have evolved to mitigate oxidative stress incurred during metabolically costly activities such as flight. We further describe how such mechanisms might have generated pleiotropic effects responsible for tumor mitigation and pathogen control in bat hosts. These synergisms may enable ‘special’ tolerance of intracellular pathogens in bat hosts; paradoxically, this may leave them more susceptible to immunopathological morbidity when attempting to clear extracellular infections such as ‘white-nose syndrome’ (WNS).

International audience; Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagas-car provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require.