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Background Serious illness conversations (SICs) are an evidence-based approach to eliciting patients’ values, goals, and care preferences that improve patient outcomes. However, most patients with cancer die without a documented SIC. Clinician-directed implementation strategies informed by behavioral economics (“nudges”) that identify high-risk patients have shown promise in increasing SIC documentation among clinicians. It is unknown whether patient-directed nudges that normalize and prime patients towards SIC completion—either alone or in combination with clinician nudges that additionally compare performance relative to peers—may improve on this approach. Our objective is to test the effect of clinician- and patient-directed nudges as implementation strategies for increasing SIC completion among patients with cancer. Methods We will conduct a 2 × 2 factorial, cluster randomized pragmatic trial to test the effect of nudges to clinicians, patients, or both, compared to usual care, on SIC completion. Participants will include 166 medical and gynecologic oncology clinicians practicing at ten sites within a large academic health system and their approximately 5500 patients at high risk of predicted 6-month mortality based on a validated machine-learning prognostic algorithm. Data will be obtained via the electronic medical record, clinician survey, and semi-structured interviews with clinicians and patients. The primary outcome will be time to SIC documentation among high-risk patients. Secondary outcomes will include time to SIC documentation among all patients (assessing spillover effects), palliative care referral among high-risk patients, and aggressive end-of-life care utilization (composite of chemotherapy within 14 days before death, hospitalization within 30 days before death, or admission to hospice within 3 days before death) among high-risk decedents. We will assess moderators of the effect of implementation strategies and conduct semi-structured interviews with a subset of clinicians and patients to assess contextual factors that shape the effectiveness of nudges with an eye towards health equity. Discussion This will be the first pragmatic trial to evaluate clinician- and patient-directed nudges to promote SIC completion for patients with cancer. We expect the study to yield insights into the effectiveness of clinician and patient nudges as implementation strategies to improve SIC rates, and to uncover multilevel contextual factors that drive response to these strategies. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04867850. Registered on April 30, 2021. Funding National Cancer Institute P50CA244690

Background Routine evidence-based tobacco use treatment minimizes cancer-specific and all-cause mortality, reduces treatment-related toxicity, and improves quality of life among patients receiving cancer care. Few cancer centers employ mechanisms to systematically refer patients to evidence-based tobacco cessation services. Implementation strategies informed by behavioral economics can increase tobacco use treatment engagement within oncology care. Methods A four-arm cluster-randomized pragmatic trial will be conducted across nine clinical sites within the Implementation Science Center in Cancer Control Implementation Lab to compare the effect of behavioral economic implementation strategies delivered through embedded messages (or “nudges”) promoting patient engagement with the Tobacco Use Treatment Service (TUTS). Nudges are electronic medical record (EMR)-based messages delivered to patients, clinicians, or both, designed to counteract known patient and clinician biases that reduce treatment engagement. We used rapid cycle approaches (RCA) informed by relevant stakeholder experiences to refine and optimize our implementation strategies and methods prior to trial initiation. Data will be obtained via the EMR, clinician survey, and semi-structured interviews with a subset of clinicians and patients. The primary measure of implementation is penetration, defined as the TUTS referral rate. Secondary outcome measures of implementation include patient treatment engagement (defined as the number of patients who receive FDA-approved medication or behavioral counseling), quit attempts, and abstinence rates. The semi-structured interviews, guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research, will assess contextual factors and patient and clinician experiences with the nudges. Discussion This study will be the first in the oncology setting to compare the effectiveness of nudges to clinicians and patients, both head-to-head and in combination, as implementation strategies to improve TUTS referral and engagement. We expect the study to (1) yield insights into the effectiveness of nudges as an implementation strategy to improve uptake of evidence-based tobacco use treatment within cancer care, and (2) advance our understanding of the multilevel contextual factors that drive response to these strategies. These results will lay the foundation for how patients with cancer who smoke are best engaged in tobacco use treatment and may lead to future research focused on scaling this approach across diverse centers. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04737031. Registered 3 February 2021.

Community-wide administration of antimalarial drugs in therapeutic doses is a potential tool to prevent malaria infection and reduce the malaria parasite reservoir. To measure the effectiveness and cost of using the antimalarial drug combination dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DHAp) through different community-wide distribution strategies, Zambia’s National Malaria Control Centre conducted a three-armed community-randomized controlled trial. The trial arms were as follows: 1) standard of care (SoC) malaria interventions, 2) SoC plus focal mass drug administration (fMDA), and 3) SoC plus MDA. Mass drug administration consisted of offering all eligible individuals DHAP, irrespective of a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) result. Focal mass drug administration consisted of offering DHAP to all eligible individuals who resided in a household where anyone tested positive by RDT. Results indicate that the costs of fMDA and MDA per person targeted and reached are similar (US$9.01 versus US$8.49 per person, respectively, P = 0.87), but that MDA was superior in all cost-effectiveness measures, including cost per infection averted, cost per case averted, cost per death averted, and cost per disability-adjusted life year averted. Subsequent costing of the MDA intervention in a non-trial, operational setting yielded significantly lower costs per person reached (US$2.90). Mass drug administration with DHAp also met the WHO thresholds for “cost-effective interventions” in the Zambian setting in 90% of simulations conducted using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on trial costs, whereas fMDA met these criteria in approximately 50% of simulations. A sensitivity analysis using costs from operational deployment and trial effectiveness yielded improved cost-effectiveness estimates. Mass drug administration may be a cost-effective intervention in the Zambian context and can help reduce the parasite reservoir substantially. Mass drug administration was more cost-effective in relatively higher transmission settings. In all scenarios examined, the cost-effectiveness of MDA was superior to that of fMDA.

BACKGROUND: Several cluster-randomized HIV prevention trials aim to demonstrate the population-level preventive impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART). 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines raising the ART initiation threshold to CD4 METHODS: We used a computational model to simulate strategies from a hypothetical cluster-randomized HIV prevention trial. The primary model outcome was the relative reduction in 24-month HIV incidence between control (ART offered with CD4 below threshold) and intervention (ART offered to all) strategies. We assessed this incidence reduction using the revised (CD4 RESULTS: With a control ART initiation threshold of CD4 CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the 2013 WHO HIV treatment threshold could substantially diminish the incidence reduction in HIV population prevention trials. Alternative HIV testing frequencies and trial horizons can bolster this incidence reduction, but they could be logistically and ethically challenging. The feasibility of HIV population prevention trials should be reassessed as the implementation of treatment guidelines evolves.

Background This paper summarizes a framework for evaluating the costs of malaria elimination interventions and applies this approach to one key component of the elimination strategy—reactive case detection (RCD)—implemented through 173 health facilities across 10 districts in Southern Province of Zambia during 2014. Methods The primary unit of analysis is the health facility catchment area (HFCA). A five-step approach was followed to estimate implementation costs: organize preliminary information; estimate basic unit costs; estimate activity unit costs; estimate and organize final unit cost database; and create the final costing database (one row of data per HFCA). By working through a specific application, the overall logic of the analysis and details of each step are presented. An electronic annex also provides all details of the analysis. Because population varies substantially across HFCAs, all results are reported per 1000 population in HFCAs. Results During 2014, 38.9 households per HFCA were visited for RCD services; 166.8 individuals were tested and 32.3 tested positive and were treated. The mean annual cost per HFCA was $1177 (median = $923, IQR $651–$1417). Variation in costs was driven by the number of CHWs and passive cases detected. CHW-related costs and data review meetings accounted for the largest share of costs. Rapid diagnostic tests and drugs accounted for less than 10 % of total costs. Conclusions The framework presented here follows standard methods in applied costing of public health interventions (combining ingredients- and activity-based costing approaches into one final cost analysis). Through an application to a specific programme implemented in Zambia in 2014, the details of how to apply such methods to an actual programme are presented. Such details are not typically presented in existing costing analyses but are required for applied analysts working with national malaria control programmes and other organizations to complete such analyses as part of routine programme implementation. Obtaining data and information for implementing the approach remains complicated, in part because analysts from one organization may not have easy access to information from another organization. This basic approach is transparent and easily applied to other malaria elimination interventions being implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1457-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Studies suggest that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for human immunodeficiency (HIV) infection could make an important contribution to changing the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. Over the past 2 years, 4 trials—CAPRISA 004, Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative (iPrEx), CDC Botswana (TDF2), and Partners PrEP—demonstrated the efficacy of tenofovir-based PrEP for HIV infection, using alternative methods of PrEP delivery in different populations [1–4]. Reported HIV protective efficacy ranged from 39% (CAPRISA 004, vaginal gel) [1] to 44% (iPrEx, oral), [2] 63% (TDF2, oral) [3], and 73% (Partners PrEP, oral) [4] with effectiveness estimates ranging as high as 72%–97% among the most adherent patients. Populations studied include heterosexual women, men who have sex with men, and heterosexual serodiscordant couples. More recently, PrEP studies have led to cause for more-measured enthusiasm. Both the phase-III FEM-PrEP trial of oral chemoprophylaxis in women and the oral tenofovir-only arm of the VOICE trial failed to demonstrate protective effects and were terminated early [5–7]. One possible explanation for differences in oral versus vaginal efficacy is that vaginal concentration of orally administered drug may be very sensitive to levels of adherence [8]. However, optimism was again tempered with the termination of the vaginal gel arm of the VOICE trial when interim results demonstrated no efficacy, compared with placebo [9]. Though the gel-related VOICE results conflict with those seen in CAPRISA, differences in dosing regimens may be a contributing factor, and data from the South African FACTS 001 trial, duplicating the CAPRISA dosing, are anxiously anticipated [10]. Because of the complexity of the evidence base, with different trials demonstrating different degrees of efficacy in different populations using different dosing regimens, we sought to provide threshold benchmarks to practitioners and funders in resource-limited settings when considering PrEP (either vaginal or oral) as a potential intervention in a population of South African women at high risk of infection. To do so, we also considered many critical implementation parameters not evaluable in the trials, such as the long-term impact of PrEP on transmission and costs, and how these parameters are influenced by target population risk, behavioral changes, acquired viral resistance, and toxicity.

Adding an immune-enhancing agent to initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is a potential strategy to ensure that patients achieve optimal immune response.Using a mathematical model of HIV disease and treatment, we evaluated the treatment benefits and cost-effectiveness of adding a hypothetical immune-enhancing agent to the initial 6 months of ART. We assumed that the additional agent would result in a higher CD4 increase that would provide clinical benefit. The additional cost ($1,900/month) was based on the cost of a drug currently under investigation for immune enhancement. Outcomes included projected life expectancy and cost-effectiveness in 2009 US dollars/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) with costs and QALYs discounted at 3% annually.Compared to standard ART, immune-enhanced ART resulting in an additional 40 CD4 cell/µL increase at 6 months yields a 2.4 month projected undiscounted life expectancy increase with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $107,600/QALY. Achieving a cost-effectiveness ratio$100,000/QALY requires a43 CD4 cell/µL improvement, or19 cells/µL if immune-enhancing agent costs are halved.In addition to showing clinical efficacy, investigational immune enhancement agents need to increase CD4 counts more than has been previously observed or have a lower cost to be considered cost-effective in the United States.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization guidelines for antiretroviral treatment (ART) in resource-limited settings recommend either stavudine or tenofovir as part of initial therapy. We evaluated the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of first-line ART using tenofovir in India compared with current practice using stavudine or zidovudine. METHODS: We used a state-transition model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease to examine strategies using different nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors combined with lamivudine and nevirapine compared with no ART: (1) stavudine (2) stavudine with substitution by zidovudine after 6 months (3) zidovudine and (4) tenofovir. Data were from the Y. R. Gaitonde Centre for AIDS Research and Education in Chennai India and published studies. Results. Discounted mean per person survival was 36.9 months (40.2 months undiscounted) with no ART 115.5 months (145.3) with stavudine-containing ART 115.7 months (145.6) with stavudine and 6-month zidovudine substitution 115.8 months (145.6) with zidovudine-containing ART and 125.8 months (162.0) with initial tenofovir. Discounted lifetime medical costs were $610 with no ART and ranged from $5580 with stavudine-containing ART to $5720 with zidovudine-containing ART. Initial tenofovir had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $670 per year of life saved compared with no ART and was more economically efficient than the other regimens. RESULTS: were most sensitive to variations in the costs of first-line tenofovir access to additional ART after treatment failure and quality of life adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Using tenofovir as part of first-line ART in India will improve survival is cost-effective by international standards and should be considered for initial therapy for HIV-infected patients in India.

India has more than 5.7 million people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In 2004, the Indian government began providing antiretroviral therapy (ART), and there are now an estimated 56 500 people receiving ART.To project the life expectancy, cost, and cost-effectiveness associated with different strategies for using ART in India, to inform treatment programs.We utilized an HIV disease simulation model, incorporating data on natural history, treatment efficacy, and costs of care from India. Input parameters for the simulated cohort included mean age 32.6 years and mean CD4 count 318 cells/microl (SD 291 cells/microl). We examined different criteria for starting and stopping ART with a first-line regimen of stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine, and the impact of a second-line protease-inhibitor-based regimen. Cost-effectiveness in US dollars per year of life saved (US$/YLS) was compared incrementally among alternative starting, sequencing, and stopping criteria.Discounted (undiscounted) mean survival ranged from 34.5 (37.5) months with no ART to 64.7 (73.6) months with one line of therapy initiated at CD4350 cells/microl, to 88.9 (106.5) months with two lines of therapy initiated at CD4350 cells/microl. Lifetime medical costs ranged from US$530 (no ART) to US$5430 (two ART regimens) per person. With one line of therapy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from US$430/YLS to US$550/YLS as the CD4 starting criterion was increased from CD4250 cells/microl to350 cells/microl. Use of two lines of therapy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1880/YLS compared with the use of first-line therapy alone. Results were sensitive to the costs of second-line therapy and criteria for stopping therapy.In India, antiretroviral therapy will lead to major survival benefits and is cost-effective by World Health Organization criteria. The availability of second-line regimens will further increase survival, but their cost-effectiveness depends on their relative cost compared with first-line regimens.

Background Of the estimated 800,000 adults living with HIV in Zambia in 2011, roughly half were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). As treatment scale up continues, information on the care provided to patients after initiating ART can help guide decision-making. We estimated retention in care, the quantity of resources utilized, and costs for a retrospective cohort of adults initiating ART under routine clinical conditions in Zambia. Methods Data on resource utilization (antiretroviral [ARV] and non-ARV drugs, laboratory tests, outpatient clinic visits, and fixed resources) and retention in care were extracted from medical records for 846 patients who initiated ART at ≥15 years of age at six treatment sites between July 2007 and October 2008. Unit costs were estimated from the provider’s perspective using site- and country-level data and are reported in 2011 USD. Results Patients initiated ART at a median CD4 cell count of 145 cells/μL. Fifty-nine percent of patients initiated on a tenofovir-containing regimen, ranging from 15% to 86% depending on site. One year after ART initiation, 75% of patients were retained in care. The average cost per patient retained in care one year after ART initiation was $243 (95% CI, $194-$293), ranging from $184 (95% CI, $172-$195) to $304 (95% CI, $290-$319) depending on site. Patients retained in care one year after ART initiation received, on average, 11.4 months’ worth of ARV drugs, 1.5 CD4 tests, 1.3 blood chemistry tests, 1.4 full blood count tests, and 6.5 clinic visits with a doctor or clinical officer. At all sites, ARV drugs were the largest cost component, ranging from 38% to 84% of total costs, depending on site. Conclusions Patients initiate ART late in the course of disease progression and a large proportion drop out of care after initiation. The quantity of resources utilized and costs vary widely by site, and patients utilize a different mix of resources under routine clinical conditions than if they were receiving fully guideline-concordant care. Improving retention in care and guideline concordance, including increasing the use of tenofovir in first-line ART regimens, may lead to increases in overall treatment costs.

Background Zambia adopted Option A for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) in 2010 and announced a move to Option B+ in 2013. We evaluated the uptake, outcomes, and costs of antenatal, well-baby, and PMTCT services under routine care conditions in Zambia after the adoption of Option A. Methods We enrolled 99 HIV-infected/HIV-exposed (index) mother/baby pairs with a first antenatal visit in April-September 2011 at four study sites and 99 HIV-uninfected/HIV-unexposed (comparison) mother/baby pairs matched on site, gestational age, and calendar month at first visit. Data on patient outcomes and resources utilized from the first antenatal visit through six months postpartum were extracted from site registers. Costs in 2011 USD were estimated from the provider’s perspective. Results Index mothers presented for antenatal care at a mean 23.6 weeks gestation; 55% were considered to have initiated triple-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) based on information recorded in site registers. Six months postpartum, 62% of index and 30% of comparison mother/baby pairs were retained in care; 67% of index babies retained had an unknown HIV status. Comparison and index mother/baby pairs utilized fewer resources than under fully guideline-concordant care; index babies utilized more well-baby resources than comparison babies. The average cost per comparison pair retained in care six months postpartum was $52 for antenatal and well-baby services. The average cost per index pair retained was $88 for antenatal, well-baby, and PMTCT services and increased to $185 when costs of triple-drug ART services were included. Conclusions HIV-infected mothers present to care late in pregnancy and many are lost to follow up by six months postpartum. HIV-exposed babies are more likely to remain in care and receive non-HIV, well-baby care than HIV-unexposed babies. Improving retention in care, guideline concordance, and moving to Option B+ will result in increased service delivery costs in the short term.

Background There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa. Our objective was to estimate the outpatient cost of providing ART to children remaining in care at six public sector clinics in Zambia during the first three years after ART initiation, stratified by service delivery site and time on treatment. Methods Data on resource utilization (drugs, diagnostics, outpatient visits, fixed costs) and treatment outcomes (in care, died, lost to follow up) were extracted from medical records for 1,334 children at six sites who initiated ART at 50%) at four sites. At the two remaining sites, outpatient visits and fixed costs together accounted for >50% of outpatient costs. The distribution of costs is slightly skewed, with median costs 3% to 13% lower than average costs during the first year after ART initiation depending on site. Conclusions Outpatient costs for children initiating ART in Zambia are low and comparable to reported outpatient costs for adults. Outpatient costs and retention in care vary widely by site, suggesting opportunities for efficiency gains. Taking advantage of such opportunities will help ensure that targets for pediatric treatment coverage can be met.

South Africa has the largest government-sponsored antiretroviral therapy (ART) program for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Limited resources require prudent management of healthcare investments. In South Africa, 2 sequential regimens or “lines” of ART are available, consistent with World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines [1]. After failure of first-line, nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)–based ART, guidelines recommend that individuals switch to protease inhibitor (PI)–based second-line ART. The relative effectiveness and cost determine this sequence; NNRTI-based ART is considerably less expensive than PI-based ART [2], although more likely to lead to viral resistance [3]. In the United States and Europe, genotype testing to distinguish resistant and nonresistant (wild-type [WT]) virus is the standard of care at ART initiation and failure [4]. In resource-limited settings, public health approaches to ART emphasize algorithms that exclude genotype testing, likely due to concerns for the complexity of healthcare delivery, upfront test costs, and the absence of ART options [1]. Without genotype testing, persistent observed HIV viremia or perceived virologic failure (based on CD4 count) prompts a switch to second-line ART. However, patients who fail ART with WT virus often “fail” due to medication nonadherence rather than drug resistance. Genotype may distinguish patients with resistant virus, who merit a switch to PI-based ART, from patients with WT virus, who with effective adherence counseling might succeed on a renewed trial of first-line ART [4, 5]. Such management of patients with WT virus would defer a switch to second-line ART. We used a computer model to project the clinical impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of genotype resistance testing at first-line ART failure in South Africa.

The President's National HIV/AIDS Strategy calls for coupling HIV screening and prevention services with substance abuse treatment programs. Fewer than half of US community-based substance abuse treatment programs make HIV testing available on-site or through referral.We measured the cost-effectiveness of three HIV testing strategies evaluated in a randomized trial conducted in 12 community-based substance abuse treatment programs in 2009: off-site testing referral, on-site rapid testing with information only, on-site rapid testing with risk-reduction counseling. Data from the trial included patient demographics, prior testing history, test acceptance and receipt of results, undiagnosed HIV prevalence (0.4%) and program costs. The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) computer simulation model was used to project life expectancy, lifetime costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for HIV-infected individuals. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (2009 US $/QALY) were calculated after adding costs of testing HIV-uninfected individuals; costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually.Referral for off-site testing is less efficient (dominated) compared to offering on-site testing with information only. The cost-effectiveness ratio for on-site testing with information is $60,300/QALY in the base case, or $76,300/QALY with 0.1% undiagnosed HIV prevalence. HIV risk-reduction counseling costs $36 per person more without additional benefit.A strategy of on-site rapid HIV testing offer with information only in substance abuse treatment programs increases life expectancy at a cost-effectiveness ratio$100,000/QALY. Policymakers and substance abuse treatment leaders should seek funding to implement on-site rapid HIV testing in substance abuse treatment programs for those not recently tested.

Background Initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in all HIV-infected adults, regardless of CD4+ T-cell count, is a proposed strategy for reducing HIV transmission. We investigated the conditions under which starting ART early could entail more risks than benefits for patients with high CD4+ T-cell counts. Methods We used a simulation model to compare ART initiation upon entry to care (‘immediate ART') to initiation at CD4+ T-cell count ≤350 cells/μl (‘WHO 2010 ART') in African adults with CD4+ T-cell counts >500 cells/μl. We varied inputs to determine the combination of parameters (population characteristics, conditions of care, treatment outcomes) that would result in higher 15-year mortality with immediate ART. Results The 15-year mortality was 56.7% for WHO 2010 ART and 51.8% for immediate ART. In one-way sensitivity analysis, lower 15-year mortality was consistently achieved with immediate ART unless the rate of fatal ART toxicity was >1.0/100 person-years, the rate of withdrawal from care was >1.2-fold higher or the rate of ART failure due to poor adherence was >4.3-fold higher on immediate than on WHO 2010 ART. In multi-way sensitivity analysis, immediate ART led to higher mortality when moderate rates of fatal ART toxicity (0.25/100 person-years) were combined with rates of withdrawal from care >1.1-fold higher and rates of treatment failure >2.1-fold higher on immediate than on WHO 2010 ART. Conclusions In sub-Saharan Africa, ART initiation at entry into care would improve long-term survival of patients with high CD4+ T-cell counts, unless it is associated with increased withdrawal from care and decreased adherence. In early ART trials, a focus on retention and adherence will be crucial.

Background Regimens for isoniazid-based preventive therapy (IPT) for tuberculosis (TB) in HIV-infected individuals have not been widely adopted given concerns regarding efficacy, adherence and drug resistance. Further, the cost-effectiveness of IPT has not been studied in India. Methods We used an HIV/TB model to project TB incidence, life expectancy, cost and incremental cost-effectiveness of six months of isoniazid plus ethambutol (6EH), thirty-six months of isoniazid (36H) and no IPT for HIV-infected patients in India. Model input parameters included a median CD4 count of 324 cells/mm3, and a rate ratio of developing TB of 0.35 for 6EH and 0.22 for 36H at three years as compared to no IPT. Results of 6EH and 36H were also compared to six months of isoniazid (6H), three months of isoniazid plus rifampin (3RH) and three months of isoniazid plus rifapentine (3RPTH). Results Projected TB incidence decreased in the 6EH and 36H regimens by 51% and 62% respectively at three-year follow-up compared to no IPT. Without IPT, projected life expectancy was 136.1 months at a lifetime per person cost of $5,630. 6EH increased life expectancy by 0.8 months at an additional per person cost of $100 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $1,490/year of life saved (YLS)). 36H further increased life expectancy by 0.2 months with an additional per person cost of $55 (ICER of $3,120/YLS). The projected clinical impact of 6EH was comparable to 6H and 3RH; however when compared to these other options, 6EH was no longer cost-effective given the high cost of ethambutol. Results were sensitive to baseline CD4 count and adherence. Conclusions Three, six and thirty-six-month regimens of isoniazid-based therapy are effective in preventing TB. Three months of isoniazid plus rifampin and six-months of isoniazid are similarly cost-effective in India, and should be considered part of HIV care.

Background. The United States and international agencies have signaled their commitment to containing the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic via early case identification and linkage to antiretroviral therapy (ART) immediately at diagnosis. We forecast outcomes of this approach if implemented in Washington DC. Methods. Using a mathematical model of HIV case detection and treatment, we evaluated combinations of HIV screening and ART initiation strategies. We define current practice as no regular screening program and ART at CD4 counts 350 cells/mL, and we define test and treat as annual screening and administration of ART at diagnosis. Outcomes include life expectancy of HIV-infected persons and changes in the population time with transmissible HIV RNA levels. Data, largely from Washington DC, include undiagnosed HIV prevalence of 0.6%, annual incidence of 0.13%, 31% rate of test offer, 60% rate of acceptance, and 50% linkage to care. Input parameters, including optimized ART efficacy, are varied in sensitivity analyses. Results. Projected life expectancies, from an initial mean age of 41 years, are 23.9, 25.0, and 25.6 years for current practice, test and treat, and test and treat with optimized ART, respectively. Compared with current practice, test and treat leads to a 14.7% reduction in time spent with transmissible HIV RNA level in the next 5 years; test and treat with optimized ART results in a 27.3% reduction. Conclusions. An expanded HIV test and treat program in Washington DC will increase life expectancy of HIV-infected patients but will have a modest impact on HIV transmission over the next 5 years and is unlikely to halt the HIV epidemic.

Background The combination of tenofovir and emtricitabine shows promise as HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We sought to forecast clinical, epidemiologic, and economic outcomes of PrEP, taking into account uncertainties regarding efficacy, the risks of developing drug resistance and toxicity, behavioral disinhibition, and drug costs. Methods We adapted a computer simulation of HIV acquisition, detection, and care to model PrEP among men who have sex with men and are at high risk of HIV infection (i.e., 1.6% mean annual incidence of HIV infection) in the United States. Base-case assumptions included 50% PrEP efficacy and monthly tenofovir-emtricitabine costs of $753. We used sensitivity analyses to examine the stability of results and to identify critical input parameters. Results In a cohort with a mean age of 34 years, PrEP reduced lifetime HIV infection risk from 44% to 25% and increased mean life expectancy from 39.9 to 40.7 years (21.7 to 22.2 discounted quality-adjusted life-years). Discounted mean lifetime treatment costs increased from $81,100 to $232,700 per person, indicating an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $298,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Markedly larger reductions in lifetime infection risk (from 44% to 6%) were observed with the assumption of greater (90%) PrEP efficacy. More-favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were obtained by targeting younger populations with a higher incidence of infection and by improvements in the efficacy and cost of PrEP. Conclusions PrEP could substantially reduce the incidence of HIV transmission in populations at high risk of HIV infection in the United States. Although it is unlikely to confer sufficient benefits to justify the current costs of tenofovir-emtricitabine, price reductions and/or increases in efficacy could make PrEP a cost-effective option in younger populations or populations at higher risk of infection. Given recent disappointments in HIV infection prevention and vaccine development, additional study of PrEP-based HIV prevention is warranted.

Objective: To evaluate the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of HLA-B*5701 testing to guide selection of first-line HIV regimens in the United States. Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis using a simulation model of HIV disease. The prevalence of HLA-B*5701 and the probabilities of confirmed and unconfirmed severe systemic hypersensitivity reaction among patients taking abacavir testing HLA-B*5701 positive and negative were from the Prospective Randomized Evaluation of DNA Screening in a Clinical Trial study. The monthly costs of abacavir-based and tenofovir-based regimens were $1135 and $1139, respectively; similar virologic efficacy was assumed and this assumption was varied in sensitivity analysis. Patients: Simulated cohort of patients initiating HIV therapy. Interventions: The interventions are first-line abacavir, lamivudine, and efavirenz without pretreatment HLA-B*5701 testing; the same regimen with HLA-B*5701 testing; and first-line tenofovir, emtricitabine, and efavirenz. Main outcome measures: Quality-adjusted life years and lifetime medical costs discounted at 3% per annum, cost-effectiveness ratios ($/QALY). Results: Abacavir-based treatment without HLA-B*5701 testing resulted in a projected 30.93 years life expectancy, 16.23 discounted quality-adjusted life years, and $472 200 discounted lifetime cost per person. HLA-B*5701 testing added 0.04 quality-adjusted months at an incremental cost of $110, resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $36 700/QALY compared with no testing. Initiating treatment with a tenofovir-based regimen increased costs without improving quality-adjusted life expectancy. HLA-B*5701 testing remained the preferred strategy only if abacavir-based treatment had equal efficacy and cost less per month than tenofovir-based treatment. Results were also sensitive to the cost of HLA-B*5701 testing and the prevalence of HLA-B*5701. Conclusion: Pharmacogenetic testing for HLA-B*5701 is cost-effective only if abacavir-based treatment is as effective and costs less than tenofovir-based treatment.

Background In recent studies, subjects who had achieved suppression of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA level while receiving an initial 3-drug antiretroviral regimen successfully maintained suppression while receiving treatment with a "boosted" protease inhibitor (PI) alone. We projected the long-term outcomes of this treatment simplification strategy to inform the design of a proposed multicenter, randomized clinical trial. Methods We used published studies to estimate the efficacy, adverse effects, and cost of a sequence of HIV drug regimens for the simplification strategy, compared with those outcomes for the current standard-of-care (SOC) strategy. Using a published simulation model of HIV disease, we projected life expectancy, discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and discounted lifetime medical costs for each strategy. Results Subjects who have not developed PI-resistant HIV infection at the time of failure of the simplification regimen have a greater life expectancy (27.9 vs. 27.1 years) and QALE (14.9 vs. 14.7 years), compared with SOC subjects, because they receive an additional line of therapy without negative consequences for future treatment options. The QALE for the simplification strategy remains higher than that for the SOC, unless a large proportion of patients experiencing virologic failure while receiving the simplification regimen develop PI resistance. Depending on the probability of simplification regimen failure, the advantage is maintained even if HIV develops PI resistance in 42%-70% of subjects. Projected lifetime costs are $26,500-$72,400 per person lower for the simplification strategy than for the SOC strategy. Conclusions An HIV treatment simplification strategy involving use of a boosted PI alone may lead to longer survival overall at lower cost, compared with the SOC combination therapy, because the simplification strategy potentially adds an additional line of therapy. The risk of emergence of PI resistance during treatment with a simplified regimen is a critical determinant of the viability of this strategy.

Background Although loss to follow-up after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is increasingly recognized, little is known about pre-treatment losses to care (PTLC) after an initial positive HIV test. Our objective was to determine PTLC in newly identified HIV-infected individuals in South Africa. Methodology/Principal Findings We assembled the South African Test, Identify and Link (STIAL) Cohort of persons presenting for HIV testing at two sites offering HIV and CD4 count testing and HIV care in Durban, South Africa. We defined PTLC as failure to have a CD4 count within 8 weeks of HIV diagnosis. We performed multivariate analysis to identify factors associated with PTLC. From November 2006 to May 2007, of 712 persons who underwent HIV testing and received their test result, 454 (64%) were HIV-positive. Of those, 206 (45%) had PTLC. Infected patients were significantly more likely to have PTLC if they lived ≥10 kilometers from the testing center (RR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.11–1.71), had a history of tuberculosis treatment (RR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.00–1.58), or were referred for testing by a health care provider rather than self-referred (RR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.22–2.13). Patients with one, two or three of these risks for PTLC were 1.88, 2.50 and 3.84 times more likely to have PTLC compared to those with no risk factors. Conclusions/Significance Nearly half of HIV-infected persons at two high prevalence sites in Durban, South Africa, failed to have CD4 counts following HIV diagnosis. These high rates of pre-treatment loss to care highlight the urgent need to improve rates of linkage to HIV care after an initial positive HIV test.

Background The Ministry of Health (MOH) in Zambia is currently operating with fewer than half of the health workers required to deliver basic health services. The MOH has developed a human resources for health (HRH) strategic plan to address the crisis through improved training, hiring, and retention. However, the projected success of each strategy or combination of strategies is unclear. Methods We developed a model to forecast the size of the public sector health workforce in Zambia over the next ten years to identify a combination of interventions that would expand the workforce to meet staffing targets. The key forecasting variables are training enrolment, graduation rates, public sector entry rates for graduates, and attrition of workforce staff. We model, using Excel (Office, Microsoft; 2007), the effects of changes in these variables on the projected number of doctors, clinical officers, nurses and midwives in the public sector workforce in 2018. Results With no changes to current training, hiring, and attrition conditions, the total number of doctors, clinical officers, nurses, and midwives will increase from 44% to 59% of the minimum necessary staff by 2018. No combination of changes in staff retention, graduation rates, and public sector entry rates of graduates by 2010, without including training expansion, is sufficient to meet staffing targets by 2018 for any cadre except midwives. Training enrolment needs to increase by a factor of between three and thirteen for doctors, three and four for clinical officers, two and three for nurses, and one and two for midwives by 2010 to reach staffing targets by 2018. Necessary enrolment increases can be held to a minimum if the rates of retention, graduation, and public sector entry increase to 100% by 2010, but will need to increase if these rates remain at 2008 levels. Conclusions Meeting the minimum need for health workers in Zambia this decade will require an increase in health training school enrolment. Supplemental interventions targeting attrition, graduation and public sector entry rates can help close the gap. HRH modelling can help MOH policy makers determine the relative priority and level of investment needed to expand Zambia's workforce to target staffing levels.

Background In areas with ongoing malaria transmission, strategies to clear parasites from populations can reduce infection and transmission. The objective of this paper was to describe a malaria mass testing and treatment (MTAT) intervention implemented in six kebeles (villages) in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, at the beginning of the 2014 transmission season. Methods Intervention kebeles were selected based on incidence of passively detected Plasmodium falciparum and mixed (P. falciparum and P. vivax) malaria cases during the 2013 malaria transmission season. All households in intervention kebeles were targeted; consenting residents received a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and RDT-positive individuals received artemether-lumefantrine for P. falciparum/mixed infections or chloroquine for P. vivax. Data were collected on MTAT participation, sociodemographic characteristics, malaria risk factors, and RDT positivity. Results Of 9162 households targeted, 7974 (87.0 %) participated in the MTAT. Among the 35,389 residents of these households, 30,712 (86.8 %) received an RDT. RDT-positivity was 1.4 % (0.3 % P. vivax, 0.7 % P. falciparum, 0.3 % mixed), ranging from 0.3 to 5.1 % by kebele; 39.4 % of RDT-positive individuals were febrile, 28.5 % resided in the same household with another RDT-positive individual, 23.0 % were not protected by vector control interventions [mosquito net or indoor residual spray (IRS)], and 7.1 % had travel history. For individuals under 10 years of age, the odds of being RDT-positive was significantly higher for those with fever, recent use of anti-malarial drugs or residing in the same household with another RDT-positive individual; 59.0 % of RDT-positive individuals had at least one of these risk factors. For individuals 10 years of age and older, the odds of being RDT positive was significantly higher for those with reported travel, fever, recent use of anti-malarial drugs, no use of vector control, and those residing in the same household as another RDT-positive individual; 71.2 % of RDT-positive individuals had at least one of these risk factors. Conclusions In the Ethiopia setting, an MTAT intervention is operationally feasible and can be conducted with high coverage. RDT-positivity is low and varies widely by kebele. While several risk factors are significantly associated with RDT-positivity, there are still many RDT-positive individuals who do not have any of these risk factors. Strategies that target populations for testing and treatment based on these risk factors alone are likely to leave many infections undetected. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1333-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.