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Context: Anticipating where an invasive species could become abundant can help guide prevention and control efforts aimed at reducing invasion impacts. Information on potential abundance can be combined with information on the current status of an invasion to guide management towards currently uninvaded locations where the threat of invasion is high. Objectives: We aimed to support management by developing predictive maps of potential cover for cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), a problematic invader that can transform plant communities. We integrated our predictions of potential abundance with mapped estimates of current cover to quantify invasion potential within lightly invaded areas. Methods: We used quantile regression to model cheatgrass abundance as a function of climate, weather, and disturbance, treating outputs as low to high invasion scenarios. We developed a species-specific set of covariates and validated model performance using spatially and temporally independent data. Results: Potential cheatgrass abundance was higher in areas that had burned, at low elevations, and when fall germination conditions were more favorable. Our results highlight the extensive areas across the Great Basin where cheatgrass abundance could increase to levels that can alter fire behavior and cause other ecological impacts. Conclusions: We predict potential cheatgrass abundance to quantify relative invasion risk. Our model results provide high and low scenarios of cheatgrass abundance to guide resource allocation and planning efforts across shrubland ecosystems of the Great Basin that remain relatively uninvaded. Combining information on an invasive species’ current and potential abundance can yield spatial predictions to guide resource allocation and management action.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has been shown to decrease plant species richness along regional deposition gradients in Europe and in experimental manipulations. However, the general response of species richness to N deposition across different vegetation types, soil conditions, and climates remains largely unknown even though responses may be contingent on these environmental factors. We assessed the effect of N deposition on herbaceous richness for 15,136 forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland sites across the continental United States, to address how edaphic and climatic conditions altered vulnerability to this stressor. In our dataset, with N deposition ranging from 1 to 19 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1), we found a unimodal relationship; richness increased at low deposition levels and decreased above 8.7 and 13.4 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1) in open and closed-canopy vegetation, respectively. N deposition exceeded critical loads for loss of plant species richness in 24% of 15,136 sites examined nationwide. There were negative relationships between species richness and N deposition in 36% of 44 community gradients. Vulnerability to N deposition was consistently higher in more acidic soils whereas the moderating roles of temperature and precipitation varied across scales. We demonstrate here that negative relationships between N deposition and species richness are common, albeit not universal, and that fine-scale processes can moderate vegetation responses to N deposition. Our results highlight the importance of contingent factors when estimating ecosystem vulnerability to N deposition and suggest that N deposition is affecting species richness in forested and nonforested systems across much of the continental United States.

Author(s): Mahesh Sankaran (corresponding author) [1]; Niall P. Hanan [1]; Robert J. Scholes [2]; Jayashree Ratnam [1]; David J. Augustine [3]; Brian S. Cade [4]; Jacques Gignoux [5]; Steven I. [...]

Latitudinal patterns of biodiversity have long been a central topic in ecology and evolutionary biology. However, while most previous studies have focused on native species, little effort has been devoted to latitudinal patterns of plant invasions (with a few exceptions based on data from sparse locations). Using the most up‐to‐date worldwide native and alien plant distribution data from 801 regions (including islands), we compared invasion levels (i.e. alien richness/total richness) in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and across continental regions and islands around the globe. Results from quantile regressions using B‐splines to model nonlinearity showed (1) declining richness with increasing latitude, although the highest alien richness occurs at around 40 degrees in both hemispheres, (2) decreasing invasion levels towards higher latitudes on islands but a unimodal pattern in invasion level in continental regions in each hemisphere, (3) significantly higher invasion levels on islands than in continental regions and (4) a greater variability in invasion levels on islands at low latitudes than on high‐latitude islands. In continental regions, only the mid‐latitudes had high variability with both low and high invasion levels. Our findings identified latitudes with invasion hotspots where management is urgently needed, and latitudes with many areas of low invasions but high conservation potential where prevention of future invasions should be the priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lek disturbance buffers can be used to identify areas that provide important seasonal habitat for Gunnison sage grouse Centrocercus minimus (hereafter GUSG), a species with declining or vulnerable populations across their range. Lek disturbance buffers define areas around leks where anthropogenic disturbance is not permitted and have been considered for potential conservation strategies across GUSG habitat. Currently there is minimal information available on the effectiveness of the size of defined lek disturbance buffers. This study focused on two GUSG populations, the smaller Crawford population and a segment of the larger Gunnison Basin population. We utilized global positioning system location data on GUSG to evaluate seasonal use within three lek disturbance buffers, then compared and contrasted results between the two populations. The Crawford GUSG population showed increased movements from breeding season to late brood-rearing season and in winter returned to a usage pattern similar to the breeding season. Comparatively, the western Gunnison Basin GUSG population showed considerable movement throughout the entire year. In addition to these differences, we noted remarkable differences in distance between active leks, home range size, and total daily distance traveled between Crawford and western Gunnison Basin populations. Lek disturbance buffers created using the standard protocol provided varying protection depending on the distance between leks and number of leks. In small populations, the disturbance buffers overlapped each other, thus producing a smaller total lek disturbance buffer area. In addition to adding to the general body of knowledge of a little-studied species, our study had two important findings: 1) the use of empirical cumulative distribution demonstrated considerable differences in lek disturbance buffer use between the Crawford and the western Gunnison Basin populations, and 2) lek disturbance buffers did not provide equal protection for all populations on the basis of their current definition and derivation. We anticipate that land managers will find our results useful and informative when developing land management plans for the conservation of GUSG. Our analysis showed that the variability between populations and species is important for managers to consider when developing conservation strategies, especially for small populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]