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In the 2010s, Denmark registered sustained current account surpluses of an average of 8% of gross domestic product (GDP). In trying to explain the nature and causes of this extraordinary performance, recent studies have pointed to a temporary change in the private sector's financial behavior as the main driver. However, descriptive analysis of the balance of payments shows that the improvement of the current account in the 2010s has been driven by three main elements: (i) the increase in real net exports, (ii) the increase in terms of trade, and (iii) the improvement in the income account. This article explores how the current account balance and the net lending of the Danish private sector would have evolved under alternative scenarios for these three elements. This is done through an empirical quarterly structural macroeconomic model for the period 2005–20, which we use to make counterfactual analyses. We find that, although part of the increase in the current account is due to an increase in domestic savings, as recent studies suggest, the effect of factors specifically related to the external sector has also been significant. Hence, the findings of this article suggest that the high current account surplus of Denmark is more a structural phenomenon than a temporary one, as official reports have been claiming thus far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent examples of energy price downturns did not alter trade surpluses in commodity exporting countries. Economic theory contends that such developments may indicate that the changes observed in energy prices are perceived as permanent by the market. We perform a trend-cycle decomposition of oil prices and find that permanent shocks account for about 90% of oil price variation. The observed variability of oil prices attributable to permanent shocks may be explained by the increased financialization of oil markets. This finding is in line with the empirical evidence that the current account surplus is generally unaffected by permanent terms-of-trade shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the intertemporal nature of countries' external adjustment by using two oil income shocks with different timings: giant oil discovery news shocks and contemporaneous oil revenue shocks from international oil price changes. Empirical estimates using a large panel of countries support the intertemporal theory. Net foreign assets hike immediately upon oil revenue shocks, but decline for the first 5 years after oil discoveries and rebound subsequently. These adjustments are largely through the current account but partially stabilized by valuation effects for oil revenue shocks. Oil discoveries attract FDI inflows, while oil revenue shocks increase foreign debt assets holdings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ekonomske Ideje i Praksa is the property of Centar za Izdavacku Delatnost Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Beogradu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the impact of credit flows, both at the aggregated and disaggregated level, on current account balances for five Southeast Asian economies. Evidence shows that total credit flows improve the current account position, especially in India and Indonesia, in the presence of adequate financial development. Nevertheless, for China, we find that credit flows lead to a decline in current account balances. When disaggregating the total credit flows, in the case of China, we find that household credit negatively influences the current account balance while the bank and business do not have any significant effect. Similarly, for India, we find that most of the improvement in the current account from credit flows comes from household and bank credit. Interestingly, in the case of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, we find evidence of aggregation bias. The asymmetric impact of disaggregated credit flows implies that policy prescriptions based on aggregate credit flows may be ill-advised and macroeconomic policymakers must implement targeted measures for different types of credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the early 2000s, several countries in the euro area (EA), mostly in the South, experienced an increase in current account deficits, while Northern countries saw an increase in current account surpluses. During the euro crisis, the South transitioned from a current account deficit to a surplus, while the North's surplus widened, thereby increasing the EA's overall current account surplus. To analyze the causes of the current account adjustment in the EA during the 2010s and to identify economic policies that reduce external imbalances, we employ a New Keynesian DSGE model with three regions (the North of the EA, the South of the EA, and the rest of the world). Our analysis reveals that the EA's expansionary monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and lackluster productivity performance explain a significant portion of the current account adjustment. Furthermore, we find that the fiscal revaluation and expansion of the North would have limited effects on external imbalances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study analyzes the size, behavior, and responsible factors behind the balance of payments (BOP) problems in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2020. Since the impact of the real indicators on the BOP of Afghanistan still remains unexplored, this article comprehensively analyzes the primary responsible factors for the BOP problems in Afghanistan. First, a comprehensive critical analysis of the BOP and its components is performed. Second, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is conducted to empirically scrutinize the influence of fiscal policy variables like government spending (GEX), tax on international trade (TIT), external debt (EXD), and GDP on the BOP. The empirical results revealed that GDP has a significantly positive impact on Afghanistan's BOP in the long run, whereas the influence of GEX on the BOP is significantly negative. Furthermore, it was found that TIT and EXD have insignificant association with BOP. Although there is a meaningful convergence towards long-run equilibrium with an adjustment speed of 94.95% in each period, none of the covariates has a significant effect on the BOP in the short run. Furthermore, the Granger causality test exposed a bidirectional causality between GEX and BOP and a one-way causation from GDP to BOP. The study recommends structural changes in the economy to increase domestic production and improvements in the composition and direction of exports and imports, redirect government spending in favor of domestic producers, and source external debt with improved debt conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the causality between the German current account and financial account. It contrasts with past research which assumes the current account and financial account to be jointly determined by a saving-investment imbalance. Our analysis decomposes the current account into exports and imports (real resource flows) and the financial account into domestic capital outflows and foreign capital inflows (gross capital flows). Evidence from the Toda-Yamamoto causality test shows that for Germany from Q1.1980 to Q2.2023, the causality runs from the financial account to the current account. It is not real resource flows but gross capital flows which exert significant impacts on the German real exchange rate. The finding implies that over the long run, strong German capital outflows and weak foreign capital inflows contributed to weak wage growth and stagnant investment in Germany, sustaining the persistent German current account surpluses. A reduction of the German current account surpluses requires a policy mix of fiscal expansion and monetary tightening which would expand the absorption of German and foreign capital in the German economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three decades before the Great Recession (the 2008 financial and economic crisis) were marked by the continuous growth of current account imbalances and income inequality. This period of high globalization is accompanied by financial liberalization and an increase in trade openness. The empirical investigations of the causes of global imbalances show that growing income inequalities are worsening the current account. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, new EU member states experienced an increase in trade openness accompanied by current account deficits and financial liberalization, but also an increase in income inequality. The Great Recession led to a decrease in imports in these countries and an improvement in the current account. The goal of our research is primarily to examine the relationship between income inequality, current account, and economic openness in the new EU member states. We show that rising income inequality linked with financial liberalization is connected with the deterioration of the current account in new EU member states. Financial liberalization relates to an increase in household domestic debt, contributing to a deterioration of the current account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a framework to correct for this misleading attribution and applies this concept to Germany. For the years 2012–2020, our corrections retrospectively reduce German savings and consequently the German current account surplus by, on average, €11.5 bn annually. This amounts to lowering Germany's average official current account surplus (€226.6 bn) across these years by approximately five percent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the bootstrapped Granger Causality Testing approach to investigate the relationship between electricity consumption, renewable energy production, and the current account of the six OECD countries. One of the main advantages of using this approach is that it captures the cross-section dependence in our sample and applies the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) to examine the causality relationship between the variables. The empirical findings show the presence of cross-section dependence in our sample as the six Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries share resources, capabilities, and key competencies. Notably, a unidirectional causality exists running from electric power consumption to the current account of the USA. The current account balance causes electric power consumption in the case of France and Switzerland. The tri-variate causality relationship between electricity consumption, renewable energy production, and current account balance could not be established in the case of Germany, Finland, or the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Credit supply shocks significantly aggravate the impact of economic recessions. Understanding the underlying reasons why credit market shocks occur and detecting the market turbulences in time can give a decision support tool for the economic policy to intervene more efficiently on the market and to reduce the effect of economic downturns. The goal of the current article is to investigate the factors that signal possible credit shocks by analyzing the quarterly data of 17 European countries over the period 1995–2021. The focus of the article is on the credit given to the nonfinancial corporations. In our analysis, we have built on the credit gap methodology by determining the deviations of the lending activity from its trend, and then we have modeled these credit gaps using fundamental macroeconomic indicators, such as the balance of the current account, the ratio of short‐ and long‐term capital investments and government debt. Our conclusion is that in the presence of fundamental disequilibrium in the economy excessive lending creates positive credit gaps that increase the chance of negative credit market shocks. According to our new findings, the existing credit gap methodology can be improved by incorporating real economic factors; slowing long‐term capital investment and increasing the deficit of the current account signal the emergence of a credit gap. We found significant regional heterogeneity as in Southern European countries, and the credit gaps were more substantial. Among the investigated macroeconomic factors, the governmental indebtedness was especially high in these countries suggesting that countries with high public debt rates are more prone to develop credit gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the commonly acknowledged positive contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the capital account of Balance of Payments (BoP) of India since 1991 under liberalization wave, the current account impact of FDI has received far less policy attention. However, through high foreign exchange outflows via imports and other expenses coupled with limited exports, FDI invested firms (firms having inward foreign direct investment) may have substantially contributed to the current account deficit in India over post-reform phase marked by substantive trade liberalization initiatives. The study evaluates net current account impact of FDI in India by reviewing various current account transactions of Multinational Corporations (MNC) affiliated manufacturing FDI invested firms from official data sources like RBI and direct firm level trade data from the company’s annual financial disclosures for some recent years. FDI invested MNC affiliates in manufacturing, at an aggregate level, were found to be associated with net foreign exchange outflows on current and trade accounts in various post-reform years. In the firm level study covering two years, this adverse pattern was noted for a majority of total firms, and also for a majority of firms in nearly each industrial sub-groups. Substantially rising net foreign exchange expenses were observed for a consistent set of select manufacturing FDI invested firms over a longer phase in the post-reform period. Apparently, FDI may not be a sustainable tool to manage current account challenges in a developing country like India unless policy caution is applied while engaging further with FDI inflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent times, the landscape of financial literacy has been evolving to accommodate new trends driven by the growing prominence of digital finance. This shift has underscored the vital need for developing digital financial literacy (DFL). Scientists and researchers have increasingly recognized the crucial importance of acquiring the knowledge and skills required to navigate the complexities of digital transactions, crypto currencies, online banking, and digital investment platforms. In our study conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina, we utilized the 2022 OECD survey questionnaire for this purpose. Employing various data collection methods, including Paper and Pencil Interviewing, Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing, and Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing, we gathered a substantial dataset comprising 1,096 fully completed questionnaires. Our primary contribution lies in the assessment of DFL scores among adults in Bosnia and Herzegovina, marking the first study of its kind in this transitional and developing nation. Furthermore, our research identifies notable personal background and socio-demographic disparities in DFL levels, rooted in factors such as age, gender, urban or rural residence, education, income and internet access, but also self-awareness of financial knowledge, owning a current account and a credit card. The survey results underscore the prevailing low levels of DFL in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with an overall score of 3.83 out of 10, highlighting the urgency for government intervention in addressing this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit (CAD) and validity of the intertemporal budget constraint of India for the period of 1980 to 2019. The cointegration results show that exports and imports are not cointegrated and the current account (CA) series is not mean reverting during the study period. Therefore, the results refute the sustainability of CAD and the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint in the Indian context. Furthermore, the study also emphasised the testing of the disaggregated CA and found that while the goods account is not sustainable, the services account found to be sustainable in the long run. Our findings thus indicate the potential for aggregation bias to have an impact on the overall CA sustainability results. Therefore, policies that help in achieving self‐sufficiency on the one hand and export promotion in goods on the other may eventually contribute to CA sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Welfare measures and their assessment involve a set of indicators that, as economic thought evolves, are subject to critique. Nonetheless, the ultimate debate focuses on the quality of life and the conditions fostered by each economy. Using data from the period 1993 to 2019, this paper presents an analysis of the current account and terms of trade, highlighting the significance of these variables, as they encompass important flows and contribute to shaping market conditions and the resulting benefits. The study employs both Vector Error Correction (VECM) and Structural Vector Error Correction (SVECM) models to explore the interplay between external dynamics and their effects on the economy. The findings reveal that an export price shock has an expansive effect on investment, yet its impact on savings becomes marginally significant over time. Unexpected shocks on investment are roughly 38% reliant on external factors, of which an average of 32% is attributable to export prices, underscoring the tight correlation between investment and international market dynamics. Notably, the results indicate that external dynamics primarily exert short-term effects. Consequently, despite periods of robust growth, reduced unemployment, and poverty reduction, these indicators have not proven to be sustainable in Peru. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the crucial issue of current account imbalances and focuses on the determinants of their gaps between eurozone Member States. We conduct robust estimations of the current account balances for a panel of ten founding euro area economies and construct a measure that allows us to diagnose why some countries have started to diverge from the eurozone mean in the last two decades. Our findings show evidence of remaining differences in countries' economic development, meaning that real macroeconomic convergence has failed in the zone. Price and cost competitiveness, as well as fiscal balances, have also participated in this growing macroeconomic divergence. Overall, while the European authorities cannot influence the part of the current account gaps due to demographic factors, the role of fiscal redistribution and investment at the euro area level could help achieve macroeconomic convergence and thus reduce current accounts' divergence in the zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continuous current account deficit represents one of the most significant limitations of the economic development of the Republic of Serbia. The presence of a long-term current account deficit imposes the obligation to find the sources of its financing. During the last decade, the secondary income account played an important role in financing the current account deficit, primarily due to a stable inflow of remittances from abroad. Since 2011, the services trade surplus has been also contributing to offsetting the balance of payments deficit to an increasing extent mainly owing to the rising export of ICT services. Therefore, the goal of the paper is to identify the importance of ICT services in achieving the service trade surplus and, thereby, also in financing the current account deficit.

ABSTRACT In this paper I propose new or relatively new steps in the construction of New Developmentalism: the existence of current account policies, the policy of growth with current account deficit, besides the current and the industrial equilibriums, the equilibrium with current account deficit, and the extended Dutch disease. The three equilibriums are depicted in a new figure. A new form of neutralizing the Dutch disease using import tariffs and export subsidies on manufactured goods is discussed.

Migrations of the resident population in Serbia, with the Western European countries as the main destination, have influenced remittances becoming an important source of income from abroad. Relevant economic literature, as well as the influential views expressed in the international financial institutions’ reports, indicate that remittances are a more stable type of inflow of funds from abroad to developing countries compared to other types of capital movements. In addition to the positive economic effects of remittances, they also play a significant role in the balance of payments deficit reduction. The subject of this research refers to the examination of the role of remittances in financing the current account deficit in Serbia. The research goal is to explore whether the importance of remittances as a factor in the balance of payments deficit reduction in Serbia increased in the period 2007-2021. The results of the research show that remittances have become an important factor in current account deficit reduction in Serbia during the observed period.

This paper investigates the effects of institutional quality on current account balance in a sample of 44 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1996–2019. The system generalized method of moments approach is privileged for estimations. Our findings show that institutional quality is a determinant of current account balance for sub-Saharan African countries. Specifically, political stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality, control of corruption, and government effectiveness are indicators that are robust and significant determinants of current account balance. Some robustness tests performed confirm our results. These findings indicate that governments in this region should improve institutional quality through strengthening the political environment, reducing corruption, and enabling conditions of private sector development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I propose new or relatively new steps in the construction of New Developmentalism: the existence of current account policies, the policy of growth with current account deficit, besides the current and the industrial equilibriums, the equilibrium with current account deficit, and the extended Dutch disease. The three equilibriums are depicted in a new figure. A new form of neutralizing the Dutch disease using import tariffs and export subsidies on manufactured goods is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the fiscal outcomes associated to the current account imbalances within Europe. We hypothesize that the effects of current account imbalances on fiscal variables within the European Union are nonlinear and that the nonlinearity is modulated by the quality of governance. We use data on 28 European Union countries from 2000 to 2019, apply a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) approach and proxy governance by measures of corruption. We find evidence of a nonlinear relationship: the fiscal effects related to current account imbalances are differentiated among European countries. On the one hand, we find a positive elasticity of fiscal balance to current account balance when the quality of institutions is low. This suggests that in countries with high corruption, a deterioration of the current account results in a degradation of fiscal balance and an increase of debt. On the other hand, we find a negative elasticity of fiscal balance to current account balance when the quality of institutions is high. This implies that in countries with low corruption, larger current account imbalances can be related to an improved fiscal balance and a lower debt. Robustness checks comfort our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether macroeconomic fundamentals affect the exchange rate volatility in emerging markets with an inflation-targeting regime or not is highly challenging. In this paper, the impact of the current account deficits and foreign reserves on the volatility of real exchange rates. Applying threshold quantile regression models related to Indonesia over the period from 2005(7) to 2021(12), it is concluded that both variables play an important role in controlling the exchange rate instability. Both coefficients are also found to have an upward linear pattern. The asymmetric impact of current account balance holds. Claiming that a two-percent current account deficit in the GDP is the safe amount of the deficit that will not significantly affect the foreign-exchange rate is justified as such. The asymmetric behavior of the current account balance has the potential to trigger real exchange rate volatility, thereby undermining the monetary policy within the framework of the inflation targeting regime. Accordingly, the optimal stock of foreign reserves might avoid imposing dual goals of inflation targeting and exchange rate stability.

AbstractThis study offers a novel examination of the mean-reversion properties of the current account balances, expressed as a percentage of GDP, for the Asian-5 economies: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. While prior studies mainly employed traditional unit-root tests, our research stands out for its use of novel panel stationarity tests that account for cross-sectional dependence and incorporate both sharp and smooth structural breaks via a Fourier function. Our findings robustly indicate the sustainability of the current accounts of the Asian-5 nations. The emphasis on the significance of structural breaks with a Fourier component sets this research apart, offering fresh perspectives on the intricacies of current account mean-reversion dynamics and the long-term sustainability implications for these economies.

The study explains the non-linear relationship between total public debt and twin imbalances, across a panel of 15 countries in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region from 2003 to 2019. A panel data threshold model with fixed effects proposed by Hansen (1999) estimates two debt-to-GDP thresholds (36.71% and 72.99%), which determine three debt-to-GDP intervals in the twin relationship. Our findings show two interesting results. First, if the level of public debt to GDP is less than 36.71%, the model determines a negative relationship between the budget balance and the current account. Twin deficits are confirmed exclusively if debt-to-GDP is in the interval between 36.71% and 72.99%. A twin divergence is also confirmed if public debt-to-GDP is more than 72.99% (e.g. as in Egypt and Lebanon). The results of this study show that there is not a single debt threshold applicable to all MENA countries, and the regression results are robust for different specifications and estimation techniques. As a result, policymakers may be able to adjust the current account deficit by lowering the public-debt ratio, reducing government-funded sterile programs, and implementing appropriate austerity measures to mitigate the effects of the financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The progression of financial globalization increases the importance of valuation changes of foreign assets and liabilities, similar to that of current account in explaining the recent net foreign asset position of countries around the world. This study analyzes the long‐term determinants of valuation effects by using panel regression with 10‐year data span of 188 countries. The main findings are as follows. First, the size of foreign assets and relative portion of risky assets are positively associated with valuation effects, which suggests that general principles for long‐term individual investors also hold for an entire country. Second, current account is negatively associated with valuation effects, which suggests that these two mechanisms stabilize each other in overall international adjustment process. Third, exchange rate changes are often positively associated with valuation effects, which at times depend on foreign asset and liability positions. Fourth, per capita GDP are negatively associated with valuation effects. Fifth, current account is mainly associated with valuation effects due to asset price changes, but exchange rate changes and foreign asset and liability positions are mainly associated with valuation effects due to exchange rate changes. The relative proportion of risky assets is associated with both types of valuation effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From Asian experiences in financial crises of 1997–08 and 2007–09, this study finds that higher income inequality can worsen current account imbalances and exacerbate external vulnerability. Capital flows, volatile though they are, are the effect, not the cause, of variations in economic fundamentals. We show that credit-based growth with the aid of foreign financing is prone to financial fragility while export-oriented growth on the basis of domestic saving is good for financial stability. Given the rising international political tensions, our result suggests that Asian emerging markets should reduce inequality and boost demand to achieve sustainable credit and balanced growth. By doing so, Asia can effectively help alleviate global imbalances and lower financial risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study offers a novel examination of the mean-reversion properties of the current account balances, expressed as a percentage of GDP, for the Asian-5 economies: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. While prior studies mainly employed traditional unit-root tests, our research stands out for its use of novel panel stationarity tests that account for cross-sectional dependence and incorporate both sharp and smooth structural breaks via a Fourier function. Our findings robustly indicate the sustainability of the current accounts of the Asian-5 nations. The emphasis on the significance of structural breaks with a Fourier component sets this research apart, offering fresh perspectives on the intricacies of current account mean-reversion dynamics and the long-term sustainability implications for these economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We estimate the medium‐term relationship between investment and unemployment over the period 1960–2017 in 20 OECD countries, a period that includes the years of the Great Recession. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment—with no effect of investment on unemployment—and New‐Keynesian models assume that such a relationship only exists in the short term at business cycle frequencies, we find that over our sample period covering more than 5 decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: in decades when investment fell, unemployment increased. Panel estimation, using a measure of stock market volatility as an instrument for investment, confirms the negative relationship between investment and unemployment. High stock market volatility and low investment are associated with high unemployment, other things equal. The evidence supports both Keynes' ideas about an unemployment equilibrium as well as more recent investment‐based theories of the natural rate of unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Apart from the contribution to economic growth and development of the national economy, the tourism sector can represent an important factor in reducing the balance of payments imbalance. Thanks to the higher export compared to the import of tourist services, conditions are created for realizing a surplus in the exchange of tourist services, which can be a significant source of financing the current account deficit. This can be particularly important for the countries of the Western Balkans, since they are characterized by a balance of payments imbalance, but at the same time they have significant tourism potential that can be further valorized in order to reduce the current account deficit and mitigate the problem of external imbalance. Bearing the above in mind, the paper tries to quantify the contribution of the tourism sector in financing the current account deficit of the countries of the Western Balkans in the 2007-2022 period. The results of the research suggest that the importance of the tourism sector, as a factor in financing the balance of payments imbalance, varies significantly among the analyzed economies, with a positive contribution of the tourism sector in neutralizing the current account deficit recorded in all observed countries. Apart from the above, the research tries to show that there is a significant possibilities not only for the development of tourism potential in the countries of the Western Balkans, but also for its significant contribution in reducing the balance of payments imbalance as one of the key development limitations of the observed economies.

ABSTRACT In this paper, we follow Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021) and estimate for Mexico a a series of the real exchange rate (RER) that balances the current account for Mexico for the period 2001q1-2019q4. In this process we take into account numerous determinants, including policy variables and financial indicators the evolution of the terms of trade, as well as a proxi for the Balassa-Samuelson effects, inter alia. Our results show that in most of the period analyzed there has been a trend tendency towards overvaluation, with the RER fluctuating above its equilibrium level. With cointegrating methods, and dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) techniques, we examined the effects of exchange rate under and overvaluation on manufacturing; disaggregated in three sectors: i) technology intensive, ii) natural resource intensive and iii) labor intensive activities. Overall, our results indicate that the real exchange rate has a significant influence on the rate of expansion of Mexico’s manufacturing real GDP.

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a methodology for the estimation of the current account equilibrium exchange rate - the exchange rate that guarantees the intertemporal current account equilibrium for a country. Moreover, the methodology is tested throughout appropriate econometric technics (VECM Models) for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, using quarterly data from around 2000 (according to data availability for each country) to 2020. The model includes both long-term structural variables such as terms of trade, goods and service trade as percentage of GDP and GDP per capita as well short term policy variables such as interest rate differential and EMBI plus. Apart from proposing an innovative methodology for estimating the current account equilibrium exchange rate, the paper brings important insights in terms of chronicle and cyclical appreciation (depreciation) of the exchange rate in LA countries. In addition, it shows high correlation between the exchange rate negative (positive) misalignments and the current account deficits (surpluses) in the countries analyzed.

ABSTRACT Using estimations by Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021), this paper analyses the misalignment between the real exchange rate and the current account equilibrium exchange rate in Colombia in the last two decades (2000-2020). Evidence suggests that the commodity boom and bust cycle in this period is important to explain (i) the main trend of the misalignment, (ii) the deterioration of the current account in recent years and (iii) the general macroeconomic performance of the Colombian economy. A discussion about macroeconomic development and stability is also provided in the context of the Colombian financial configuration, characterized by a flexible exchange rate regime, central bank independence and inflation targeting. Ideas in this paper are consistent with key elements in the New Developmentalism Theory.

Most of the countries in Central Africa have recorded current account deficits since the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The aim of this article is to identify the main factors explaining the behavior of the current account balances of CEMAC member countries. Using a dynamic panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we use annual data for the period 1970-2018. The results indicate that there is a longrun relationship between the current account balance of the CEMAC countries and the explanatory variables (real exchange rate, terms of trade, domestic savings, GDP growth rate, domestic investment, inflation rate, oil price). We also show that domestic investment boosts the competitiveness of the countries concerned, that domestic savings are directed towards the consumption of foreign goods, that oil revenues do not fuel productive investment, and that there is a structural difference between the CEMAC countries; thus, the terms of trade have an asymmetrical effect on their current accounts. The results of this study lead to recommendations to the effect that diversifying the productive base of CEMAC countries is the most effective way of enabling them to rebalance their current account balances in the long term and reduce their vulnerability to external shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We re-examine the nexus between fiscal balances and current account balances for 18 OECD countries from 1995Q1 to 2018Q1 using panel cointegration and panel vector autoregressive (VAR). The findings confirm a long-run relationship between the fiscal balance and the current account balance. Our results indicate that strengthening the fiscal balance by one percentage point of GDP improves the current account balance by about 0.1–0.3 percentage points of GDP. On the other hand, an increase in real government consumption generally worsens the current account balance. The impact of the real effective exchange rate is not statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the nexus between India's current and capital accounts using threshold cointegration and asymmetric error-correction approaches. The results validate the threshold cointegration between the current account (CA) and India's capital account (KA). The asymmetric error correction-based results support the unidirectional Granger causality from KA to CA. Further, results reveal that KA's cumulative sum of positive and negative deviation substantially impacts the CA. Finally, results of equilibrium adjustment path asymmetric effect from CA to KA suggest that KA reverts to equilibrium in the short run when CA decreases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While inflow of remittances through informal channels are widely discussed in terms of their opportunity cost for the recipient country and likely instrument of illegal activities, the size of such inflows is indeterminate. Pakistan is on the forefront of global efforts to curb hawala transactions yet no consistent estimates are available. This study attempts to use an indirect macroeconomic approach to estimate hawala transactions from United State of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), and Saudi Arabia (KSA) for the period 2010Q3 to 2019Q2. These three countries host around 50 percent of Pakistani emigrants and account for almost 55 percent of total remittances received in Q1FY20. Our estimates show that hawala transactions have significantly declined in Pakistan as percentage of official remittances from all three countries. This demonstrates that the enhanced monitoring, regulations and various policy measures by the Government of Pakistan have proved instrumental in reducing hawala transactions over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Uluslararasi Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi is the property of Karadeniz Technical University, Depertmant of Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Substantial capital outflows across Europe following the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis and 2010 European Sovereign Debt crisis raise concerns regarding potential capital outflows from the economies of Central and Eastern European countries. To shed light on country‐level factors that can mitigate crisis and potential capital outflows across these countries, this article investigates which factors have influenced the evolution of their current accounts. Our analyses, using dynamic ordinary least squares, suggest that the long‐run determinants of the current account have indeed changed over time, and threshold cointegrated estimates also confirm that, for each country, the parameters are dependent on thresholds for certain variables and there is significant heterogeneity across the countries. Our overall results are robust to complementary analyses, such as threshold estimation approach. We comment on some possible implications of these differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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