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Well-intended policies often have negative unintended consequences if they fail to foresee the different ways in which individuals may respond to the new set of incentives. When widespread and persistent, these may lead to a net reduction of social welfare. Focusing on the case of anti-drug policies, in this paper we show that the recent unprecedented surge in the growing of illicit coca crops in Colombia was the result of a naive and untimely policy announcement during peace negotiations between the government and the FARC guerrillas. On May 2014, the parties’ peace delegations issued a press release announcing that coca-growing farmers would receive material incentives for voluntary crop substitution once a final agreement had been reached. To evaluate the anticipation effect of this announcement we exploit the cross sectional variation on both the cost advantage of growing coca (using an ecological measure of coca suitability) and the expected benefits of doing so (using a predicted measure of where the material benefits would h ave b een t argeted). Coca plantations levels remained high even after the implementation of the announced incentives’ scheme. We explain this persistence by documenting that the surge in coca growing is differentially higher in areas with presence illegal armed groups, that benefited financially from availability of a key input in the drug trade.

Using unique crop-specific data gathered over 7 years, we study if and how maize-producing farmers in Ethiopia adjust their land allocation decisions in response to pre-planting-season weather variations. We show that farmers adjust their land allocation decisions in response to increased temperatures early in the growing season. In addition to quantifying a substantial adaptation margin that has not been documented before, our study also reveals the presence of a weather variation-induced expansion of maize production into areas that are less suitable for maize cultivation.

Los cultivos ilícitos han dejado una estela de dolor y muerte lamentable en los países cultivadores así como en los países vecinos, además de propiciar graves problemas ambientales, sociales, económicos e incluso culturales. En Latinoamérica los principales cultivos de coca y marihuana se ubican en zonas limítrofes de Colombia y Perú, impactando recientemente sobre Ecuador y Venezuela. El presente ensayo considera el tema de los cultivos ilícitos y la opción de su sustitución por cultivos lícitos dentro de los programas y estrategias de cada uno de los países mencionados, sus antecedentes y la cooperación internacional a que ha dado lugar esta lucha contra las drogas. A través de una metodología cualitativa y recurriendo a un enfoque de estudio de casos y revisión de la literatura se busca un acercamiento al problema en las zonas fronterizas de Colombia (Ecuador, Perú, y Venezuela) mediante estrategias conjuntas de sustitución, su implementación y desarrollo. Los cultivos ilícitos traen consecuencias calamitosas a nivel ambiental, social, político y cultural, el enfoque militarista no ha resultado fructífero como lo demuestran las cifras al respecto, por lo que la vía más apropiada para combatirlo parece ser la sustitución de estos por cultivos lícitos con apoyo gubernamental. Colombia es el principal productor y exportador de drogas y este problema ha rebasado sus fronteras nacionales, por lo que resulta necesario un enfoque conjunto con los países vecinos para combatirlo, que incluya voluntad política de las partes y una reingeniería de sus relaciones comerciales internacionales. Illegal crops have left a trail of regrettable pain and death in the cultivating countries as well as in neighboring countries, in addition to causing serious environmental, social, economic and even cultural problems. In Latin America, the main coca and marijuana crops are located in border areas of Colombia and Peru, recently impacting Ecuador and Venezuela. This essay considers the issue of illicit crops and the option of replacing them with legal crops within the programs and strategies of each of the mentioned countries, their background and the international cooperation that this fight against drugs has given rise to. Through a qualitative methodology and resorting to a case study approach and review of the literature, an approach to the problem in the border areas of Colombia (Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela) is sought through joint substitution strategies, their implementation and development. . Illegal crops bring calamitous consequences at an environmental, social, political and cultural level, the militaristic approach has not been fruitful as the figures show in this regard, so the most appropriate way to combat it seems to be the substitution of these for licit crops with government support. Colombia is the main producer and exporter of drugs and this problem has exceeded its national borders, which is why a joint approach with neighboring countries is necessary to combat it, which includes the political will of the parties and a reengineering of their international trade relations. Pregrado

ObjectiveThis study, conducted in China, explores tobacco farmers’ willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for tobacco crop substitution.MethodsThe contingent valuation method was used to elicit farmers’ WTA compensation. A face-to-face survey was conducted with 280 tobacco farmers in Lichuan City, China. The standard logit regressions were used to identify the factors that influence farmers’ WTA.ResultsWithout compensation, most of the respondents were unwilling to implement tobacco crop substitution. However, if the government provided compensation, the proportion of respondents’ willingness for substitution increased to 86.7%. Male tobacco farmers are more likely to accept a given compensation value than female farmers. Older tobacco farmers have a higher probability of accepting compensation. The number of farmers engaged in tobacco growing in a family is negatively associated with the probability of accepting a given compensation amount. Tobacco farmers with greater confidence in the expected benefits of tobacco crop substitution tend to be more willing to accept compensation. The mean WTA estimate was achieved as US$2020.35/ha/year.ConclusionsIf appropriate compensation is provided for tobacco farmers, there is a potential to implement the tobacco crop substitution policy in the study area.

La presencia de cultivos ilícitos de coca en Colombia en grandes extensiones del territorio nacional y con una alta permanencia ha originado una serie de problemáticas sociales y ambientales que se agudizan por el control que sobre estas zonas ejercen grupos armados al margen de la ley; con la firma del Acuerdo Final de Paz con las FARC el gobierno se comprometió a realizar una Reforma Rural Integral y combatir el problema de las drogas ilícitas desde una perspectiva integral y social, reconociendo las falencias que respecto a estos puntos ha tenido el estado y han ocasionado tantos desastres humanitarios y ambientales, que se describen a lo largo de este artículo; además da por hecho que el camino a la erradicación definitiva de los cultivos ilícitos de coca es la sustitución voluntaria, toda vez que la aspersión aérea ha traído graves consecuencias para la salud y los ecosistemas. Con base en esto, fue el objetivo de este artículo analizar a través de una revisión documental y una búsqueda selectiva de información oficial y verificada, los posibles impactos ambientales asociados a esta problemática en sus diferentes etapas (establecimiento del cultivo ilícito, erradicación forzosa y sustitución del cultivo) para identificar alternativas que no comprometan la integridad de las comunidades ni de los ecosistemas. Se sintetizaron estos impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales, y se concluyó que la sustitución de cultivos, aún con falencias, es la respuesta a la construcción de un desarrollo sostenible en los territorios afectados por cultivos de coca en el país. The presence of illicit coca crops in Colombia in large extensions of the national territory and with a high permanence has originated a series of social and environmental problems that are exacerbated by the control that illegal armed groups exercise over these areas; With the signing of the Final Peace Agreement with the FARC, the government committed to carrying out a Comprehensive Rural Reform and combating the problem of illicit drugs from a comprehensive and social perspective, acknowledging the shortcomings that the state has had on these points and have caused so many humanitarian and environmental disasters, which are described throughout this article; It also assumes that the path to the definitive eradication of illicit coca crops is voluntary substitution, since aerial spraying has brought serious consequences for health and ecosystems. Based on this, it was the objective of this article to analyze, through a documentary review and a selective search of official and verified information, the possible environmental impacts associated with this problem in its different stages (establishment of illicit cultivation, forced eradication and substitution of cultivation) to identify alternatives that do not compromise the integrity of communities or ecosystems. These socioeconomic and environmental impacts were synthesized, and it was concluded that the substitution of crops, even with shortcomings, is the answer to the construction of sustainable development in the territories affected by coca crops in the country. Especialización

We investigate if and how farmers adjust their land allocation decisions in response to within-growing season weather variability using novel crop-specific data collected over seven consecutive years. By focusing on maize-producing smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, we show that farmers respond quickly to growing season weather variability by adjusting their land allocation decisions. In addition to quantifying a substantial adaptation margin that has not been documented before, our findings also reveal the presence of a weather variability-induced expansion of maize production into areas that are less suitable for maize cultivation.

Este artículo estudia cómo las negociaciones de paz del Gobierno de Colombia con las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) impactaron la política antidrogas del país. Para ello, se revisa la literatura sobre economía de las guerras civiles y la economía del crimen como oficio, se estudia la política antidrogas durante las últimas dos décadas y se analizan las cifras oficiales consignadas en informes gubernamentales e internacionales sobre el comportamiento de los cultivos ilícitos, la producción y el tráfico de drogas. Los resultados muestran que la política antidrogas del Estado durante el gobierno de Santos, fundamentalmente basada en la erradicación voluntaria y la sustitución de cultivos, y una fuerte disminución de las aspersiones aéreas (erradicación forzosa), resultó ser un factor determinante en el incremento de los cultivos de cocaína.

Realizar un estudio de pre factibilidad para la creación de una empresa para la comercialización de cacao fino de aroma hacía los Estados Unidos La idea de crear una empresa dedicada a la comercialización de cacao fino aroma y exportarlo al mercado de los Estado Unidos, surge de la necesidad de comprar el producto directamente a los cultivadores en el Departamento de Cundinamarca (Colombia), descartando a los intermediarios para generar una mayor utilidad a los productores y capturar un espacio que se presenta en las exportaciones, debido a que la producción total en la industria nacional absorbe el 90%. El proyecto plantea un análisis factible para la creación de una empresa dedicada a la comercialización y exportación, para lo cual se investigan parámetros de costos, calidad, y estrategias que permitan el ingreso a este mercado, de igual manera se examina aspectos de marketing, tecnicismos, administrativos y legales que debe considerar una para ejecutar la producción, debido a que el cacao se ha perfilado como la materia prima de la paz y se está utilizado como un instrumento en las estrategias de sustitución de cultivos ilícitos en zonas donde el conflicto armado ha tenido gran impacto. También se plantean un mejoramiento de la competitividad a partir del análisis de elementos que proporcionan la identificación de los factores cruciales de éxito y que permite proponer acciones de los integrantes de esta cadena productiva The idea of creating a company dedícate to the commercialization fo fina aroma cocoa and export it to the United States market, arises fron the neet to buy the product directly fron growers in the Departament of Cundinamarca. (Colombia), ruling aut intermediaries to generate greater profit for producers and capture a space that occurs in exports, since total production in the domestic industry absorbs 90%. The Project proposes a feasible analysis for the creation of a company dedícated to commercialization and export, for which Parameters of cost, quality, and strategies that allow antry into this market are investigated. Marketing, technical aspects are also examined, administrative and legal that must consider a to execute production, because cocoa has emerged as the raw material of peace and is being used as an instrument in strategies to substitute illicit crops in areas where the armed conflict has had a great impact. An improvement in competitiveness is also proposed based on the analysis of elements that provide the identification of the crucial success factors and that allow proposing actions by the members of this production chain.

While force eradication through aerial spraying has large social costs, there is no evidence of the unexpected consequences of alternative development programs. This paper suggests an unintended effect of the largest crop substitution program in the world on political violence exploiting data on the recent Colombian program. The program’s community agreements increased the rate of social leaders’ killings by 546 %. My findings suggest a larger effect on municipalities where leaders oppose the expansion of illicit crops, organized crime does not hold consolidated power, different armed groups are present, and land conflicts exist. This paper contributes by providing empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that policies aimed at reducing illicit crops have unintended consequences for local communities.

Resumen: Este articulo analiza el problema de los cultivos ilicitos y concretamente de los programas de desarrollo alternativo destinados a solucionarla y su relacion con la creacion de la cultura de la legalidad. En primer lugar analiza el desarrollo alternativo y recorre los diferentes programas que se han desarrollado en Colombia con el fin de conseguir la sustitucion de cultivos ilicitos. Despues se recogen algunos de los aspectos mas relevantes de la relacion entre cultivos ilicitos y fallas en la cultura de la legalidad. La ultima parte del articulo recoge la evidencia empirica de diversos estudios y evaluaciones sobre el impacto de los diferentes programas en el fortalecimiento de la confianza, la participacion y la cultura de la legalidad. Palabras clave: Sustitucion de cultivos, desarrollo alternativo, narcotrafico, Colombia, Cultura de la legalidad, Estado de Derecho Abstract: This article analyzes the problematic of illicit crops in Colombia and, more specifically, the alternative development programs created to address it and how they are changing the culture of ilegality intrinsic to ilicit crops. It analyzes the relation between a certain culture of illegality and the prevalence of narcotrafic; then it studies the presence of illicit crops in Colombia and describes the evolution of alternative development programs. Finally, it collects and analyzes evidence from different empirical studies about the impact of alternative development programs in the enhancement of social confidence, strengthening of democracy and promotion of legality. Keywords: Il licit crop substitution, alternative development, narcotraffic, Colombia, Culture of legality, Rule of Law

Despite centuries of state-directed eradication efforts, opium cultivation persists in northern Laos and Myanmar. The most recent of these efforts is China’s Opium Replacement Program (ORP). Like other illicit crop substitution programmes, the ORP seeks to provide opium cultivators with licit livelihood alternatives. Unlike other programmes, it does so by supporting Chinese agribusiness investors in the region – predominantly rubber companies – instead of targeting opium producers directly. Rubber is not, however, economically or ecologically speaking, an optimal replacement for opium. Rubber and opium have contrasting production cycles and market characteristics, and are grown at different altitudes by different types of producers (large corporations and smallholders, respectively). Due to this apparent mismatch, critics have dismissed the ORP’s opium eradication aims, viewing it as a pretext for land grabs. I argue instead that rubber makes sense as an opium replacement crop based on Chinese and Lao sta...

El objetivo fue analizar el impacto social del programa de interdicción del cultivo de la coca promovido por DEVIDA sobre el desarrollo agropecuario y ambiental en la cuenca del Inambari Puno-Perú. El estudio tiene un carácter no experimental, seccional, descriptivo, cualitativo y nivel micro. La población operacional, determinado por muestreo de conveniencia y saturación, estuvo conformado por directivos de las rondas campesinas y de la asociación de productores agrarios de la cuenca del Inambari. Las técnicas de recolección de los datos fueron la revisión del marco jurídico-legal y acuerdos internacionales sobre interdicción y desarrollo alternativo, entrevistas a profundidad y observación participante. El impacto social del programa DEVIDA sobre el desarrollo agropecuario y ambiental en la cuenca del Inambari de acuerdo al marco jurídico-legal y la visión de los productores agrarios es negativo, dado que su estrategia y metodología de intervención no sólo fracasó, sino que trajo consigo crisis para los pobladores de la zona, debido a que, en su propósito de evitar la resiembra de la coca en áreas intervenidas, promovió el uso de fertilizantes químicos para la adaptación y cultivo de productos alternativos. La interdicción supuso una ruptura de la vivencia humana con el entorno ecológico y sociocultural, denotando que la intervención realizada por DEVIDA-CORAH fue inadecuada, debido a que la erradicación forzada no solo agudizó la precaria economía familiar y dinamizó el proceso migratorio, sino que impactó negativamente sobre el ambiente y la capacidad de las tierras de cultivo al volverlas improductivas por la contaminación y proliferación de hongos y la introducción irracional de fertilizantes químicos The objective was to analyze the social impact of the interdiction program of coca cultivation promoted by DEVIDA on agricultural and environmental development in the Inambari Puno-Peru basin. The study has a non-experimental, sectional, descriptive, qualitative and micro level character. The operational population, determined by convenience sampling and saturation, was made up of executives from the peasant patrols and the association of agrarian producers of the Inambari basin. The techniques of data collection were the revision of the legal-legal framework and international agreements on interdiction and alternative development, in-depth interviews and participant observation. The social impact of the DEVIDA program on agricultural and environmental development in the Inambari basin according to the legal-legal framework and the vision of the agrarian producers is negative, given that its intervention strategy and methodology not only failed, but also brought with it crisis for the inhabitants of the area, due to the fact that, in its purpose of avoiding the replanting of coca in intervened areas, it promoted the use of chemical fertilizers for the adaptation and cultivation of alternative products. The interdiction supposed a rupture of the human experience with the ecological and sociocultural environment, denoting that the intervention carried out by DEVIDA-CORAH was inadequate, because the forced eradication not only worsened the precarious family economy and dynamized the migratory process, but also impacted negatively on the environment and the capacity of the arable lands, making them unproductive due to the contamination and proliferation of fungi and the irrational introduction of chemical fertilizers

The emergence of wheat-blast in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. A potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India's overall food security as wheat is its second most important staple food crop. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology, enhancing the prospects of the disease entering India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a 'wheat holiday' policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for at least two years. The present scoping study assesses the potential economic feasibility of alternative crops to wheat. Of the ten crops considered, maize, gram (chickpea), urad (black gram), rapeseed and mustard, and potatoes are found to be potentially feasible alternative crops. Any crop substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia.

Understanding how a changing climate alters regional comparative advantage is crucial for evaluating the economic impacts of climate change. I exploit temporal variation in decades-long averages of weather and estimate crop acreage elasticities with respect to climate change in the United States. I find substantial climate change adaptation through acreage adjustments in US agriculture. Climate change explains about 10–35% of the observed US corn and soybean expansion over the past 30 years, and climate-driven crop substitution has played an important role. The acreage response is heterogeneous across major and minor producing areas and across dryland and irrigated counties.

Background China is the largest tobacco producer globally, with Yunnan province being the largest tobacco-producing region. In China there are 20 million tobacco farmers. Showing that income from crop substitution can exceed that from tobacco growth is essential to persuading farm families to stop planting tobacco. In Yuxi Municipality, collaborators from Yuxi Bureau of Agriculture, University of California at Los Angeles School of Public Health, and Kunming Medical University initiated a tobacco crop substitution project. At 3 sites, 458 farm families volunteered to participate in a new, for-profit cooperative model. This project successfully identified an approach engaging farmers in cooperatives to substitute food crops for tobacco. Methods The current follow-up project utilized official data from the Yuxi Municipal Bureau of Agriculture. Three pilot counties - Hongta District, Chengjiang County, Eshan County - were selected for information collection on acreage of tobacco, vegetables, fruits and other crops, and net income of farmers. Results Compared to 2012, Yuxi tobacco planting area has dropped significantly from 763,494 Chinese mu (one Chinese mu equals 0.16 acres) to 586,404 Chinese mu in 2015, whereas the area devoted to vegetables and fruits has increased 24%. The net income change directly linked to the tobacco crop substitution was an increase of more than 3000 yuan ($ 484) per capita in Yuxi city and the three pilot project areas, observed from the 2012-2015 data. By mid-2014 and for the first time, farmers' per capita income passed 10,000 yuan ($ 1613). Conclusions The tobacco substitutition pilot project in Yuxi reduced the density of tobacco planting and increased planting area of vegetables and fruits. The results not only increased the economic status of farmers, but also benefited the health of the public by reducing the availability of tobacco in China. The diffusion of tobacco crop substitution in Yunnan provides a good example for China.

For over two decades the US has funded repressive forced coca eradication in Peru, Colombia and Bolivia to reduce the illegal cocaine trade. These policies have never met their stated goals and have generated violence and poverty. In 2006 Bolivia definitively broke with the US anti-narcotics model, replacing the militarized eradication of coca crops with a community-based coca control strategy. The program substantially reduced the coca crop while simultaneously respecting human rights and allowing farmers to diversify their livelihoods. This article outlines the elements of the Bolivian initiative that ensure its continued successful functioning. It explores to what extent this model can be translated to other Andean contexts.

Agricultural risk management is a central issue that Mozambique faces in development, and multiple stakeholders have analyzed this challenge, sometimes with different terminology and focusing on varying aspects. The government of Mozambique has adopted the strategic plan for agricultural development (PEDSA 2010-19) that focuses on: (i) increasing the availability of food in order to reduce hunger through growth in small producer productivity and emergency response capacity; (ii) enlarging the land area under sustainable management and the number of reliable water management systems; (iii) increasing access to the market through improved infrastructures and interventions in marketing; and (iv) improving research and extension for increased adoption of appropriate technologies by producers and agro-processors. The World Bank’s agriculture sector risk assessment takes a holistic approach and relies on long time-series historical data to arrive at an empirical and objective assessment of agricultural risks and their impacts on Mozambique. This assessment will form the basis of the second step, solution assessment, whose final findings will inform National Investment Plan for the Agrarian Sector in Mozambique (PNISA). This document considers the many aspects of assessing risk in the Mozambican agriculture sector. Chapter one gives introduction and context. Chapter two introduces the major characteristics of the agricultural system leading into chapter three, which presents a comprehensive picture of the risks that exist in the sector. Chapter four, in quantifying the risks that have been observed, comments on the losses that have been incurred by the sector because of production risks, whereas chapter five provides a qualitative discussion of how risk has an effect on the different stakeholders present in the sector. Chapter six delves into the risk prioritization carried out by the team and then comments on various management measures. The report concludes with chapter six, in which recommendations are provided for improving risk management in Mozambique.

This paper analyzes smoking prevalence and smoking behaviors in Papua New Guinea. Using the 2009–10 Papua New Guinea Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the paper analyzes the determinants of tobacco use and tobacco choices in Papua New Guinea. The results show that adults (18 years and above) in the poorest quartile are more likely to smoke. Tobacco consumption imposes a large financial burden to poor households. Tobacco consumption accounts for about 23 percent of total household food expenditure for households in the poorest quartile, compared with 15 percent for the entire sample. However, most of these households consume non-processed tobacco. The study reveals the urgency to control tobacco consumption in Papua New Guinea and considers some practical challenges that the country may face.

The worldwide interest in reducing dependence on fossil fuels and diversify the energy matrix to mitigate global warming, has attracted attention to bio fuels, especially ethanol from sugar cane, which promoting strongly expansion of sugar cane cultivation area and increase of number of mills, concentrated on Cerrado region, particularly on Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul states. To face the growing demand for ethanol it is necessary to increase the production of sugar cane as much as the increase of the cultivated area as well as increasing the productivity. The southwestern Goias (SW) is dominated by agribusiness, especially for meat - grains chain activities which, during the last decades, were practically absolute in defining the spatial dynamics in this region. The objective was to analyze the conversion of the use and land occupation for sugar cane in the SW of Goias, in the years 2001, 2006 and 2011. Of all the area cultivated with sugarcane in the region in 2011, 55%, 28% and 17% occurred in areas where, in 2006, were occupied with agriculture activity, grassland and savanna, respectively. Thus, the areas of agriculture represent more than half of all the areas replaced by sugar cane SW of Goias in 2011, showing a preference for agricultural areas, due to agronomic advantages compared to grazing areas. Key words: sugar cane, crop substitution, remote sensing, southwest of Goias.

Under international law, the cultivation of opium poppy, coca bush, and cannabis plant is allowed only for limited medical and scientific purposes. All other cultivation of these plants is marked for removal via eradication or other means, and strategies to implement these laws are reviewed. Globally, the annual risk of eradication is consistently below 10% for each crop. Evidence regarding socioeconomic development policies is taken from over two decades of United Nations programs in 11 countries. Using any measure of performance, they have had little impact. Even with marginal revisions in their methodology, the likelihood of these policies achieving their aims in the near future seems minimal.

In this paper I offer some Washington-focused reflections on the scholarly-policy divide in the drug war debate, drawing from more than two decades of observing and occasionally participating in what often seems to be a dialogue of the deaf — or perhaps the problem is not lack of hearing but not liking what one hears. Academics, I argue, have little discernible influence on the Washington policy debate on international drug control except at the margins (in technical aspects of crop substitution schemes, and so on). To the extent that scholars are involved in the foreign policy drug war debate — and there are plenty of disciplinary factors inhibiting this — it is primarily as outside critics rather than as trusted advisors. So to the extent that they have a receptive audience, it is more in the broader public sphere than in the halls of Congress or in the drug war bureaucracy. Their policy influence is therefore more indirect and more difficult to measure, though this does not mean it is necessarily unimportant.

Coca eradication programmes in Peru are undermined by the interaction of cocaine economics and insurgent politics. Coca cultivators can earn far more from the illegal market in coca than from any legal crop and government efforts to eradicate coca production create a political space in which Sendero Luminoso guerrillas can cultivate popular support by protecting coca cultivators from law‐enforcement agents and Colombian traffickers. We use a model of peasant decision‐making to assess the impact of crop eradication, crop substitution and drug interdiction strategies on the economic behaviour and political loyalties of Peruvian coca cultivators. We use the model to assess the likelihood that even successful anti‐drug programmes may destabilize the Peruvian government by generating popular support for Sendero Luminoso.

In China, approximately 20 million farmers produce the world's largest share of tobacco. Showing that income from crop substitution can exceed that from tobacco growth is essential to persuading farm families to stop planting tobacco, grown abundantly in Yunnan Province. In the Yuxi Municipality, collaborators from the Yuxi Bureau of Agriculture and the University of California at Los Angeles School of Public Health initiated a tobacco crop substitution project. At 3 sites, 458 farm families volunteered to participate in a new, for-profit cooperative model. This project successfully identified an approach engaging farmers in cooperatives to substitute food crops for tobacco, thereby increasing farmers’ annual income between 21% and 110% per acre.

Agroindustrialisation, in contrast to assertions by Mexican policy‐makers, has had a negative employment‐generating effect in agriculture in the region known as El Bajio. The impact of widespread crop substitution and the wholesale transfer of technology promoted by transnational processing plants have both reduced the total labour employed and increased the instability of employment through heightened seasonality of labour demand. A decomposition analysis assesses the role played by various determinants of labour demand in the alteration of regional agricultural employment which has resulted from agro‐industrialisation.

This paper presents a simple equilibrium model of the cocaine industry in Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia (PBC). The purpose of the model is to represent the fundamental economic relations that determine the size of cocaine output, and to simulate the effects on the production sector of policy initiatives or other changes in the surrounding environment. Model results include: ''Crop substitution'' programs will have a neglible impact on the world cocaine market. Cocaine supply control strategies that seize and destroy 70% or less of production, without limiting the total level of production, will have little impact on the market. Changes in the size of the world cocaine market have a relatively modest long-run impact on the standard of living of average workers in Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia. The results of this study are insensitive to the data uncertainties concerning the cocaine market.

Orientador: Pedro Ramos Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia Resumo: Esta tese teve como principal objetivo caracterizar a expansão da agroindústria canavieira e a sua dinâmica na região do Sudoeste de Goiás, descrevendo os impactos sobre o uso do solo e sobre as culturas selecionadas, que são arroz, algodão, cana-de-açúcar, feijão, milho, soja e sorgo. A hipótese que norteou o trabalho foi de que a expansão da agroindústria em Goiás se caracteriza pela alta competição de terra, favorecendo o arrendamento de grandes áreas para a cultura da cana-de-açúcar para a agroindústria canavieira. Este movimento demonstra que a expansão desta agroindústria em Goiás se dá dentro dos mesmos moldes das demais regiões tradicionais neste cultivo, ou seja, com movimentos de concentração fundiária e exclusão de culturas. A metodologia utilizada para a investigação foi uma revisão bibliográfica dos principais textos sobre as características da expansão deste setor nas regiões brasileiras. A pesquisa de campo foi realizada em entidades do setor sucralcooleiro, do setor agrícola goiano e nas associações de fornecedores da região delimitada para a pesquisa. Foi conduzido, ainda, o estudo de caso de quatro agroindústrias canavieiras, classificadas em dois grupos formados pelas firmas mais antigas e o outro grupo formado por agroindústrias entrantes no Estado de Goiás. Os resultados apontaram para uma concentração fundiária em Goiás, principalmente na região do Sudoeste de Goiás, nas culturas de soja e de cana-de-açúcar e a exclusão de culturas como arroz, feijão e, mais recentemente, o milho. Ressalta-se que a cultura da soja tem sido substituída na região do Sudoeste de Goiás, em determinados municípios, pela cultura da cana-de-açúcar. Outra conclusão é que a expansão das agroindústrias canavieiras em Goiás herdou o mesmo modelo das regiões tradicionais, com a expansão alicerçada no controle da matéria-prima, seja via arrendamento ou compra da terra. Neste contexto, as instituições representativas de produtores agrícolas de Goiás e das associações de fornecedores de cana-de-açúcar buscam a construção de um novo modelo com a participação dos produtores rurais. As pesquisas apontaram que as percepções das instituições representativas indicam a existência de dois modelos: um mais antigo, classificado como predador, caracterizado pela concentração fundiária, comandado pela agroindústria canavieira e um novo modelo, alicerçado na figura do fornecedor, por isso, gerador de maiores efeitos multiplicadores em comparação ao modelo antigo. Conclui-se que deve haver aprofundamento da pesquisa sobre os efeitos da expansão deste setor em Goiás e adoção de análises setoriais para o entendimento da dinâmica e das estratégias que as empresas têm optado em um ambiente altamente competitivo Abstract: The primary goal of this thesis is to characterize the expansion of the sugar industry and its operations in southwestern Goiás, describing its impact on soil use and on certain crops, specifically: rice, cotton, sugar cane, beans, corn, soybeans and sorghum. The hypothesis of this study postulates that the expansion of agribusiness in Goiás is characterized by high competition for land, favoring the leasing of large plots of land for the cultivation of sugar cane for the sugar industry. This shows that the expansion of agribusiness in Goiás occurs in the same manner as in other traditional regions of cultivation, which is to say it occurs in the form of land concentration and the exclusion of certain crops. The methodology used in this study consisted of a review of relevant publications regarding the expansion of this industry in Brazil. Field work was conducted in both entities involved in sugar and ethanol production and those in the agricultural sector in Goiás, as well as in supplier associations within the defined region. A further case study was conducted analyzing four sugarcane industries which were classified into two groups made up of the oldest companies in the region and agribusiness entrants in Goiás. The results showed evidence of land concentration, mainly in parts of southwestern Goiás involved in soybean and sugar cane production, and the exclusion of crops like rice, beans and more recently corn. It is important to note that, in certain cities in the southwestern region of Goiás, soybean production has been replaced by the production of sugar cane. Another conclusion reached by this study is that the expansion of the sugar industry in Goiás adopted the same model as that of the traditional regions, with the expansion dictated by the control of raw materials, whether through lease or purchase of land. Within this context, institutions representing the agricultural producers of Goiás and associations of sugar cane suppliers are attempting to construct a new model with the participation of rural producers. The research shows that such attempts reflect the presence of two models: an older model, classified as a predator model, characterized by land concentration controlled by the sugar industry, and a new model based on the supplier, which generates higher multiplier effects compared to the old model. The study concludes by stating the need for further research on the effects of the expansion of this industry in Goiás and for the adoption of analyses to better understand company operations and strategies that companies have chosen in a highly competitive environment Doutorado Desenvolvimento Economico, Espaço e Meio Ambiente Doutor em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Efforts to reduce cocaine production and exports from the Andean region continue to be an important component of U.S. drug control efforts. This article presents a simple economic analysis of the effects of major source-country control programs: eradication, crop substitution, and refinery destruction. When account is taken of the structure of prices in the cocaine industry and the ability of farmers and refiners to make behavioral adaptations, none of these programs has much prospect for affecting the flow of cocaine to the United States. Despite the continued failure of the programs and the analytic arguments against them, they continue to flourish budgetarily; they are protected by the rhetorical claims of the past, the need to appear to have a complete portfolio of programs, and the sheer momentum of drug control expenditures.

The story of agricultural policy in Northeast Asia over the past 50 years illustrates the dramatic changes that can occur in distortions to agricultural incentives faced by producers and consumers at different stages of economic development. In this study of Japan, the Republic of Korea (the southern part of the peninsula, hereafter referred to as Korea) and the island of Taiwan, China (hereafter referred to as Taiwan), the authors estimate the degree of distortions for key agricultural products as well as for the agricultural sector as a whole over a period when these economies transitioned from low- or middle- to high-income status the beginning of the so-called East Asian economic miracle of dramatic industrial development. The three economies in terms of the nature of their economies, including their resource endowments that determined the course of their modern economic growth and development. The evolution of agricultural policies in the three economies is then reviewed before discussing how to measure distortions to agricultural incentives using the methodology from Anderson et al. (2008), the focus of which is on nominal and relative rates of assistance. Implications of empirical findings for policy reforms in the three economies are discussed in the final section, where the authors also identify lessons for later-developing economies experiencing similar structural transformations in the course of their economic growth. Statistical observations are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that the success of rapid industrialization that advanced these economies to the middle-income stage resulted in declines in agriculture's comparative advantage associated with the growing income disparity between farmers and employees in non-agricultural sectors.

This thesis examines the role of alternative development in the Colombian and U.S. governments' counter drug strategies. Both governments include alternative development as a part of their policies, but provide limited funding to the programs when compared to the funding for forced eradication and security measures. Existing policies have produced reductions in drug cultivation in many areas and the Colombian government has made gains in security throughout the country, particularly the remote rural regions. These gains make conditions in Colombia suitable for large-scale alternative development supported by increased funding. Both governments are addressing components of successful alternative development programs, but funding disparities are hindering the effectiveness of the programs. While the international and European communities are staunch supporters of alternative development, the funding provided by them has been limited in scope because of disagreement with the U.S.-backed eradication policies. The U.S. and Colombian governments in conjunction with the international community must focus more on alternative development in order to consolidate the recent gains in democratic security. http://archive.org/details/colombiasresurre109451433 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This article assesses the impact of the East Asian financial crisis on farm households in two of the region’s most affected countries, Indonesia and Thailand, using detailed householdlevel survey data collected before and after the crisis began. Although the nature of the shocks in the two countries were similar, the impact on farmers’ income (particularly on distribution) was quite different. In Thailand, poor farmers bore the brunt of the crisis, in part because of their greater reliance on the urban economy, than did poor farmers in Indonesia. Urban-rural links are much weaker in Indonesia. Farmers in both countries, particularly those specializing in export crops, benefited from the currency devaluation. Although there is some evidence that the productivity of the smallest landholders declined over the period in question, it is difficult to attribute this directly to the financial crisis. At least in Thailand, a rural credit crunch does not seem to have materialized. Now that the East Asian financial crisis has waned, its impact on two of the region’s most affected countries, Indonesia and Thailand, can be more readily assessed. Agriculture is the major employer in these economies, yet little is known about how farm households weathered the crisis. Hyperbolic news reports notwithstanding, many farmers surely benefited from the exchange rate depreciation. Other effects of the crisis, however, may not have been so sanguine. Overall, one would expect considerable variation in the impact of the crisis within the rural sector. Of particular interest to policymakers, given the implications for the design of safety net programs and balanced rural development, is how the rural poor fared relative to better-off households. This article uses detailed household survey data from Indonesia and Thailand collected before and after the onset of the 1997 financial crisis to explore its effect on farm production and income, especially its differential impact on the poor.

In this reply to ‘water footprint of marine protein consumption—aquaculture’s link to freshwater,’ we argue that Troell et al’s calculation of the water footprint of marine aquaculture supports our assumption that marine aquaculture requires a negligible amount of freshwater relative to the cost of terrestrial crop substitution that is the focus of our analysis in ‘freshwater savings from marine protein consumption’. We recognize that the water requirements of marine aquaculture could be important for specific countries and will likely become more important at the global level as aquaculture incorporates more terrestrially-based feeds and as aquaculture comprises a larger percentage of total marine fish production. In response to Troell et al’s comments on stagnant capture fisheries, we clarify that our original discussion encompassed several possible future conditions for these fisheries.