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3 results on '"COVID-19/SARS-CoV2"'

1. Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Günter Bärwolff

Subjects
mathematical epidemiology, SIR-type model, model parameter estimation, non-pharmaceutical intervention, dynamical systems, COVID-19/SARS-CoV2, Systems engineering, TA168, Technology (General), T1-995
Abstract

The current pandemic is a great challenge for several research areas. In addition to virology research, mathematical models and simulations can be a valuable contribution to the understanding of the dynamics of the pandemic and can give recommendations to physicians and politicians. Based on actual data of people infected with COVID-19 from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), input parameters of mathematical models will be determined and applied. These parameters will be estimated for the UK, Italy, Spain, and Germany and used in an S I R -type model. As a basis for the model’s calibration, the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the named countries is used. Strategies for the commencing and ending of social and economic shutdown measures are discussed.

Published
2020
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2. Life in the Time of a Pandemic. Social, Economic, Health and Environmental Impacts of COVID-19-Systems Approach Study.

Author

Sahin, Oz, Richards, Russell, and Sahin, Oz

Subjects
Environmental science, engineering & technology, History of engineering & technology, Technology: general issues, Bayesian Networks, COVID-19, COVID-19/SARS-CoV2, SIR-type model, UK, agent-based model, branded content, causal loop diagram, change readiness, complexity economics, computational cognitive science, decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, digitalization shift, dynamical systems, economic crisis, economic networks, emotions, expanded TOPSIS, global value chains, housing markets, immunity, information theory, leverage points, marketing, mathematical epidemiology, megaprojects, model parameter estimation, modelling, n/a, network theory, non-pharmaceutical intervention, pandemic, policy, semantic networks, social media mining, system dynamics, system thinking, systems approach, systems thinking, text mining, total interpretive structural modelling, tour and traveling, uncertainty, vaccination, wicked problem
Abstract

Summary: It has been confirmed that the number of cases and the death toll of COVID-19 are continuing to rise in many countries around the globe. Governments around the world have been struggling with containing and reducing the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19; however, their respective responses have not been consistent. Aggressive measures imposed by some governments have resulted in a complete lockdown that has disrupted all facets of life and poses massive health, social, and financial impacts. Other countries, however, are taking a more wait-and-see approach in an attempt to maintain business as usual. Collectively, these challenges reflect a super wicked problem that places immense pressure on economies and societies and requires the strategic management of health systems to avoid overwhelming them-this has been linked to the public mantra of 'flattening the curve', which acknowledges that while the pandemic cannot be stopped, its impact can be regulated so that the number of cases at any given time is not beyond the capacity of the health system. Dynamic simulation modelling is a framework that facilitates the understanding/exploring of complex problems, of searching for and finding the best option(s) from all practical solutions where time dynamics are essential. The papers in this book provide research insights into this super wicked problem and case studies exploring the interactions between social, economic, environmental, and health factors through the use of a systems approach.

3. Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Author

Bärwolff, Günter

Subjects
COVID-19 pandemic, MATHEMATICAL models, SIMULATION methods & models, EXPONENTIAL functions, COVID-19, PANDEMICS
Abstract

The current pandemic is a great challenge for several research areas. In addition to virology research, mathematical models and simulations can be a valuable contribution to the understanding of the dynamics of the pandemic and can give recommendations to physicians and politicians. Based on actual data of people infected with COVID-19 from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), input parameters of mathematical models will be determined and applied. These parameters will be estimated for the UK, Italy, Spain, and Germany and used in an S I R -type model. As a basis for the model's calibration, the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the named countries is used. Strategies for the commencing and ending of social and economic shutdown measures are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

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