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The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is an impending mechanism that imposes a price on emissions embodied in products imported to the European Union (EU). It is expected to impact international trade substantially. Meanwhile, the Russia‐Ukraine war has been ongoing since March 2022, and resources are being redistributed accordingly. This study simulates the potential impact of CBAM on trade in the Russia‐Ukraine war context by employing the Computable General Equilibrium models. The simulation results show that the CBAM will significantly affect selected countries, and the impact will vary across countries and industries. In the context of the Russia‐Ukraine war, the influence on trade will be considerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposed reductions in farm input uses foreseen in the European Green Deal may penalize European farm production while increasing environmental leakages to foreign countries where production may expand. These expected impacts have led to calls for a more restrictive trade policy based on mirror clauses. This paper considers as a case study a potential ban on glyphosate in vegetable and fruits production. We develop an original computable general equilibrium model with endogenous adoption of new European production standards by foreign producers on currently latent markets. We find in our case study that adding mirror clauses to the Green Deal marginally improves European farm income and the global environmental footprint of food. We find that foreign producers as a whole can gain from these clauses and not lose as in a standard analysis. European households support these clauses by paying higher food bills while consuming vegetables and fruits produced without glyphosate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: By constructing a computable general equilibrium model of "carbon trading" and "carbon trade-carbon tax", this study aims to deeply explore the combined impact of these two policies on China's economic development and carbon emission reduction, so as to provide scientific decision support for policy makers. Methods: In order to accurately simulate the economic effects of carbon trading policies, the carbon trading module was introduced in detail in the "carbon trading" model, and the carbon trading cost was incorporated into the elastic substitution function production module. At the same time, in order to comprehensively evaluate the effect of the combination policy of "carbon trade-carbon tax", the cost of carbon tax is included in the constant elastic substitution function of production in the model. Results and Discussion: Through in-depth data analysis and model calculation, it is found that although a single carbon trading policy can effectively promote the reduction of carbon emissions, its impact on the economy is relatively moderate, especially in promoting the technological upgrading of the power industry. The "carbon trade-carbon tax" combination policy has further strengthened the emission reduction action, in a number of industrial sectors, such as coal, power, heavy industry and light industry, by significantly increasing the cost of carbon emissions to promote emission reduction. The above results show that carbon tax policies play an important role in balancing carbon emission reduction and economic development. Compared with the single carbon trading policy, the introduction of carbon tax makes the emission reduction efforts of various departments more comprehensive, and also contributes to the stable development of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh will graduate from the LDC list by 2026. Currently, Bangladesh's exports of readymade garments (RMG) benefit from international support measures which allow preferential trade in major export destinations, such as the EU. After graduation, Bangladesh's exports, particularly RMG, will face competition from mega trading blocs, such as RCEP and CPTPP. This article employs the GTAP model to estimate the impact of Bangladesh's graduation from the LDC category and how mega FTAs are likely to affect Bangladesh's exports and potential welfare. The model also considers the scenarios of either United States or the UK or both joining the CPTPP. The model results show that Bangladesh's graduation will lead to a fall in GDP and RMG exports by 1.53% and 11.8%, respectively. The negative impact is magnified when we factor in the mega-trading blocs. Further negative impacts are observed when either United States or the UK or both join the CPTPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture plays a crucial role in the economy of Burkina Faso and other sub-Saharan African countries. It provides food for the population and is the primary source of employment in rural areas. The government of Burkina Faso has implemented a 2018–2027 Agro-Sylvo-Pastoral production sector policy to improve agricultural productivity and reduce poverty. This study uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model, which evaluates the impact of subsidizing investment in agricultural capital on production, income, and poverty under three different fiscal financing scenarios. The results indicate that the agricultural mechanization subsidy program effectively reduces poverty, but the extent of the reduction varies depending on the financing method used. Financing the subsidy by reducing nonproductive public expenditure further reduces poverty, especially in rural areas. However, it is essential to supplement the subsidy policy with an agricultural extension service program for the program to have long-lasting effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a social and economic impact analysis of the Burundi political crisis (2015 to 2017) accompanied by economic sanctions. We perform our analysis with a macro–micro-simulation framework. We constructed a macro–micro analytical framework that includes a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation (MS) model. This framework allows us to link shocks of a more macroeconomic nature such as reductions in foreign aid, reductions in the supply of public services, on household decomposed to focus the analysis on children. Scenarios were designed and applied to capture the sanctions associated with the crisis and other manifestations of the crisis. The distributional analysis is performed with the standard indices (FGT and Gini), and we innovated by extending our social analysis on five social indicators by combining results from our CGE model and elasticities linking growth and social indicators from the literature. The macroeconomic and sectoral results show significant negative effects on GDP, skilled employment, and unemployment. The social impact analysis carried out with our framework and with observed data shows a very significant negative impact on the five social indicators selected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how sectoral linkages amplify or diminish misallocation at the intensive and extensive margins. Our analysis is based on a multisector general equilibrium model with input–output linkages, heterogeneous entrepreneurial abilities, and endogenous occupational choice. Distortions affect the intensive use of production inputs and they also impact the agents' occupational decisions, misallocating the mass and type of entrepreneurs in different sectors of production. When the most distorted sectors are upstream (downstream), input–output linkages amplify (diminish) the loss from entreprenurial misallocation. We calibrate the model to the US and quantify the output losses from sectoral corporate taxes, decomposing the role of networks and the extensive margin decisions. We find that sectoral linkages quadruple the loss from the misallocation of entrepreneurs. We study an entry subsidy program, showing that it should target those sectors whose marginal entrepreneurs suffer larger profit losses, even if they are not necessarily the most distorted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports an analysis using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to calculate the economic development and emissions under different air pollution prevention strategies, with a focus on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei rim surrounding the cities in the 'Capital Economic Circle'. It appeared that raising the emission tax effectively suppressed air pollution but also suppressed economic development. Raising the emission subsidy promoted economic development, but did not suppress air pollution. A stepwise tax collection mode can be used to formulate the emission tax. When using emission subsidies to encourage manufacturers to improve their exhaust treatment technology, the policy should be tilted towards small enterprises to reduce economic pressure on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inter-basin water transfer projects are among the highly controversial issues in water supply policies. These projects have economic effects on the sources and destination areas. The costs and benefits of these projects should be investigated for their justification. This study examines the economic and welfare impacts of the Taleghan Water Transfer Project (TWTP) in Iran using a water-embedded multi-regional computable general equilibrium (WMRCGE) model. The results indicate that the increase in the equivalent variation (EV) of the water-receiving area is 6.9 times greater than the EV loss in the water supply area. Thus, the welfare improvement in the water-receiving area is much higher than the welfare loss in the water-supplying area. The results also indicated that the increase in total output in the water-receiving region is three times the total output reduction in the water supply region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sheds some light on the consequences of a carbon tax increase to achieve the national goal for carbon emissions. By use of a spatial computable general equilibrium model, STRAGO, the main purpose of the paper is to illustrate the effects on sectors in the economy and regions in Sweden from a climate scenario, by estimating expected substitution effects from a predetermined reduction in emissions. The climate scenario implies a gradual increase in the current carbon tax until the goal for the reduction in emissions has been reached. Doubling the carbon tax rate is expected to reduce the total consumption of fossil fuels by 18%, and in terms of reduced emissions and total welfare, the results are of the same order of magnitude as in previous Swedish studies. At the regional level, the effect on production is largest in Region West, as the production of petroleum and a large part of manufacturing is concentrated to this region. In terms of regional welfare, the northern regions, Upper-north in particular, lose more than central regions, which reflects differences in both industrial structure and carbon intensity, due to different transportation expenditures. The impact on welfare in northern regions is however mitigated by the substitution from fossil fuels to biofuels, as production of biofuels is concentrated to these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes. The projections indicate that (i) because of projected reductions in trade costs, trade will grow more than GDP, generating a global trade‐to‐GDP growth rate of 1.1; (ii) because of structural change, the global share of manufacturing trade falls from 64% in 2020 to 52% by 2050, whereas the share of services trade rises substantially from 24% to 38%; and (iii) because of technological catch‐up, the share in global trade of both developing and least‐developed countries (LDCs) will rise (with developing countries overtaking developed economies around 2035), the share of intra‐developed country trade will fall, whereas the share of intra‐developing country trade and those between developing and developed countries will rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the potential economic impacts in Argentina of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which as of January 2025 will prohibit the export to the European Union of certain raw materials and related products if they involve the use of deforested land. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the impact of such regulation on the Argentine economy. The results suggest that the potential macroeconomic impacts are limited. As a consequence of the EUDR, between 2025 and 2030, GDP would be reduced by an average of 0.46% with respect to the baseline scenario. However, of greater magnitude is the potential environmental impact. Deforested hectares would be reduced by 6.64% and polluting gas emissions by 0.39%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As economies around the world are increasing their mitigation ambitions, Azerbaijan's lingering dependency on fossil fuel exports threatens its medium – and long-term economic development prospects. Global decarbonization is expected to directly impact the country's resource rents through lower fossil fuel demand and prices. In this regard, it is crucial to understand the potential implications of the global mitigation efforts on the economy of Azerbaijan and evaluate the domestic mitigation policies. To address this gap in the literature, we use a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model and explore a set of forward-looking climate policy scenarios till 2060. Our results suggest that while being adversely impacted by decarbonization efforts in countries around the world, it is in Azerbaijan's self-interest to implement domestic mitigation policies. With proper sequencing and design of such policies, including a combination of fossil-fuel subsidies reform, the introduction of carbon prices post-2030 and recycling of the additionally collected revenue via reduced factor taxes, the country could achieve NDC targets, boost economic growth and increase economic diversification. More ambitious mitigation efforts, consistent with reaching net-zero emissions by 2060 would result in substantial health co-benefits from improved air quality, which could almost fully outweigh the direct economic costs of such mitigation. While being exposed to the declining global fossil fuel demand and prices that accompany decarbonization efforts in countries around the world, it is in Azerbaijan's self-interest to implement domestic mitigation policies. Achievement of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) via the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, the introduction of carbon prices post-2030 and recycling of the additionally collected revenue via reduced factor taxes is the most economically attractive option for Azerbaijan. Reduced levels of air pollution that accompany low-carbon transition result in substantial health-related co-benefits increasing the net welfare gains under NDC scenarios and compensating between 60% and 80% of the mitigation costs under the net-zero mitigation case in Azerbaijan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The discourse on global value chains (GVC) is undergoing a transformation in terms of its conceptualisation, theorisation and pragmatic applications. Today, the production systems have become more complex as global economic order continues to witness marked geo-economic manoeuvring. Thus, the direction of discourse on GVC ought to move from mere theoretical propositions toward becoming more evidence based. There have been recent studies that have used the governance and upgrading propositions by Gary Gereffi and others to seek quantitative evidence. This study aims to decipher the quantitative discourse on GVC and to set the emerging and future research agenda. Design/methodology/approach: Through a systematic literature review, the authors first analyse the quantitative studies on GVC carried out during the last two decades. The authors then outline a future research agenda and examine a few relevant modelling techniques that could potentially be used to solicit newer evidence in GVC research. Findings: The authors categorise the quantitative discourse on GVC into three crucial themes, namely, GVC framework, GVC participation and position, environmental aspects and regionalisation in GVC. The most commonly used quantitative techniques are gravity model, panel data estimation, structural decomposition analysis and computable general equilibrium modelling. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the GVC discourse in two ways. Firstly, the authors argue that the theoretical frameworks within the GVC discourse should be complemented by evidence-based quantitative studies. Secondly, the authors suggest potential modelling techniques that can be used on the emerging and future research agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geo‐political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to re‐evaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering friendshoring – trading primarily with countries sharing similar values – as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This article estimates the economic costs of friendshoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter‐country inter‐industry linkages. The results suggest that friendshoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.7% of GDP in some economies. Thus, although friendshoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a substantial cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the common time frame of the Paris Agreement, all parties are expected to submit a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035 by 2025. Their carbon reduction efforts for 2035 will be a crucial link between the current NDCs and long-term commitments to carbon neutrality and will be of great significance to whether the world can ultimately achieve the temperature-control goal of 2 °C/1.5 °C. This study examines the United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU), the two largest carbon-emitting developed economies, along with China and India, the two largest carbon-emitting emerging economies. The aim is to infer their potential carbon reduction efforts in 2035 from the perspective of bridging NDCs and carbon neutrality pledges. This study also explores the support for the 2 °C/1.5 °C goal and the economic costs of such efforts using a carbon allowance allocation framework and a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that: ① Moving from the NDCs toward carbon neutrality, China′s carbon emissions per unit of GDP in 2035 could decline by 73%~77% from 2005, the U.S. carbon emissions could decline by 61%~67% from 2005, the EU carbon emissions could decline by 65%~70% from 1990, and India′s carbon emissions per unit of GDP could decline by 51%~58% from 2005. ② These carbon reduction efforts may support a 2 °C-consistent global carbon emissions pathway in 2035. However, to support a 1.5 °C-consistent global pathway, the U.S. and the EU would have to achieve zero or even negative carbon emissions in 2035, and China would have to reduce its carbon emissions to about 5 Gt CO2. ③ In a non-cooperation scenario, China would face a GDP loss of 0.36%~0.58% in 2035 to achieve the above carbon reduction efforts, which is comparable to that of the U.S. (0.36%~ 0.52%) and slightly lower than that of the EU (0.49%~0.80%). Being at a relatively lagging stage of development, India would have a GDP loss (0.26%~0.81%) more susceptible to carbon reduction efforts. Enhancing cooperation can help achieve carbon reductions at lower economic costs, and the overall GDP loss of the four emitters is expected to decrease from 0.39%~0.65% in a non-cooperation scenario to 0.21%~0.41% in a cooperation scenario. It is suggested that China promptly deepens research on emission reduction efforts and implementation pathways for 2035 and further promotes transnational cooperation and exchanges in addressing climate change, thereby supporting the globle achievement of the Paris climate goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Higher fertility rate induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. • The three-child policy slightly increases fertility intention. • The three-child policy increases emission abatement of the designed emission trading scheme. • In emission trading scheme, technological progress increases GDP and decreases total emissions. • The three-child policy strengthens technological impacts on GDP but weakens technological impacts on emissions. Although population growth plays a vital role in driving anthropogenic climate change, fertility impact on achieving mitigation target is usually overlooked in literature. This paper attempts to narrow the research gap by employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the interrelations among fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy in China. The model results show that fertility rate negatively correlates with GDP and emissions because higher fertility induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. The three-child policy raises fertility intention; it does not unidirectionally influence the effects of the emission trading scheme (ETS) on employment and GDP, but it increases ETS emission abatement. Technological progress increases GDP and decreases emissions; the three-child policy strengthens technological impact on GDP but weakens technological impact on emissions. Hence, technological progress benefits emission mitigation; the three-child policy enhances economic benefits but impairs emission abatement of technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Agent-based modelling is a powerful tool for evaluating the impact of the circular economy (CE). • Agent-based CE literature is fragmented and lacks a comprehensive framework. • Our systemic review finds three main themes in the literature. • We develop an integrated framework for agent-based model that complements general equilibrium models. • Our insights contribute to the theory and open future avenues of research. Circular Economy (CE) is a popular topic for governments and businesses around the world; yet, only a few comprehensive and economy-wide frameworks exist, and the consequences of the CE on economic systems stay unclear. With this systematic review, we put under scrutiny the existing contributions to Circular Economy (CE) that apply the Agent-based modelling methodology. There is an open gap in the CE literature regarding the use of ABM. The research question that guides this systematic review concerns the potential benefit of ABM for CE and how to use this methodology in the context of CE. We put in evidence three thematic areas, two agents and one process, namely producers , i.e. firms and industrial systems, consumers , i.e. households and waste disposal, and the diffusion of innovation. We infer that the former three thematic strands of literature can be further synthetized together to form a general model of the Circular Economy. This development is crucial to properly evaluate how the agent's heterogeneity affects the diffusion and the consequences of the adoption of CE practices on the economy. Research has widely applied ABM simulations to consider the impact of heterogeneity amongst individuals and their behavioural interactions on the evolution of complex systems, yet very little did it systematically about CE. Our results complement those of Computable General Equilibrium models. The review provides an interpretative framework, suggests valuable future research directions within the new comprehensive thematic area, and contributes to the theoretical and managerial discussion on agent-based modelling in the circular economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• South Asia is geographically connected, but highly dis-integrated, with more than 90 % outward-oriented trade. • The cumbersome procedures, ruthless application of Non-Tariff Measures (NTM's), and restrictions are the biggest challenges for trade in this region. • Against this backdrop, this research measures the economic impact of Mutual recognition of Standards in South Asia. • Simulation results suggest that if standards are mutually recognized then all countries will be better off, and intra-regional trade and welfare are forecasted to increase. • SAFTA should proceed to establish such a mechanism that enables member countries to recognize the certificates and tests approved by the exporting countries. SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) is not a success story. Geographically connected, but highly dis-integrated, with more than 90 % outward-oriented trade, this is the case of South Asia. Of course, military, and political tensions are the major obstacles. However, recent data and studies show that cumbersome procedures, ruthless application of NTMs (Non-Tariff Measures) and restrictions are the biggest challenges for trade in the region. NTMs are important for public health and the environment but if such standards are mutually recognized through bilateral or multilateral agreements then the hectic and lengthy procedures can be avoided. This is the basic hypothesis investigated and checked in this research. Taking four economies, (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and SriLanka) two-step process is adopted; firstly, AVEs (Ad Valorem Equivalents) of NTMs are calculated and then incorporated in an extended GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) based CGE model. Simulation results suggest that if standards are mutually recognized then all countries will be better off, intra-regional trade and welfare will increase. The study recommends that SAFTA should proceed to establish such a mechanism that enables member countries to recognize the certificates and tests approved by the exporting countries. Further, Port restrictions and the issue of para-tariffs should be discussed in future negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The migration of both unskilled and skilled labour force can alter economic conditions and environmental sustainability of both host and home countries. Consequently, this study endeavors to investigate the impact of skilled labour migration on economic growth, energy demand, and environmental sustainability of both home and host countries. This objective is achieved by constructing a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for developed and developing countries. Moreover, developing countries are classified into four distinct groups based on their income levels such as high income, upper middle income, lower middle‐income and low‐income countries. The outcome of policy simulations indicate that skilled labour migration diminishes the gross domestic product, welfare, energy consumption and carbon emissions in home countries, and the reverse is true for the host countries. The influx of remittances to home counties is shown to bolster their economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, whereas a contrary trend in remittance outflow is observed in host countries. Likewise, reverse migration has the potential to augment economic growth in developing countries alongside an increase in energy demand and CO2 emissions. The study advocates for developed countries to harness the skills of immigrants in environment‐friendly manufacturing industries. Furthermore, it emphasizes that developing countries should utilise remittances for both socio‐economic and environmental development to retain the migration of skilled labour forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To manage transboundary pollution, China has promoted trans-provincial watershed eco-compensation (WEC), which is a market-oriented policy that adjusts ecological and economic interests between upstream and downstream areas and promotes regional green and low-carbon transformation. Hence, a reasonable evaluation of the carbon emission reduction effect of WEC is of great value for achieving green transformation. Using data from Chinese counties between 2003 and 2020, we consider 11 trans-provincial WEC agreements and evaluate their influence on carbon emissions. We find that trans-provincial WEC policies reduce water pollution emissions and significantly lower carbon emission levels. Mechanism tests show that the policy reduces carbon emissions by limiting polluting industrial development and stimulating low-carbon technological innovations. Moreover, this policy improves regional low-carbon economic development, and there are significant heterogeneity effects of the WEC in different regions and compensation modes. This research provides new insights for transitional countries to design green transformation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input–output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Indonesia, the negative health impact of COVID‐19 and the initial, direct loss of employment have been largest in urban, not rural areas. But the second‐round effects on labor markets have been very different. They have included a huge, empirically documented migration of newly unemployed urban workers from urban to rural areas, in urgent search of employment, food, and safety from the pandemic. We call this "de‐urbanization." It placed the migrating workers in economic competition with the least skilled agricultural workers, expanding their numbers by almost 8%. By increasing the supply of unskilled farm labor, de‐urbanization depressed farm workers' real wages. Because the demand for farm labor is inelastic, the total wage income of these workers, aggregated across all unskilled farm laborers, declined. The households relying on this source of income are by far Indonesia's poorest. Similar outcomes may occur in other pandemic‐affected developing countries with large agricultural sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impacts of housing market policies in Korea by developing a dynamic computable general equilibrium model integrating regional housing markets and multiregional mobility. We compare simulation outcomes of demand- and/or supply-side approaches in housing market interventions and address how these various policy instruments affect housing prices, demand, and household welfare. Policy simulation results suggest that supply-based interventions would be more effective than housing tax policies for cooling down overheated housing markets without decreasing consumer welfare. Tax-based demand-side approaches result in a 1.8–2.2% housing price drop and a 1.1–1.2% welfare decline annually between 2021 and 2024. In the supply-side policy, investing in housing construction leads to 3.4–4.1% lower housing prices and 1.5–1.8% enhanced welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a global dynamic general equilibrium model with foreign direct investment (FDI) and technology capital, this paper finds that the EU–China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) could bring modest but nonnegligible benefits to both sides. Under an illustrative scenario in which the CAI increases the degree of openness to bilateral FDI by 10%, the EU's FDI to China could rise by a factor of 3–4 and China's FDI to the EU by a factor of 3. These would generate a gain in the steady‐state gross national product (GNP) of 0.23% for China and 0.73% for the EU. The cumulative household welfare gain in the present value term is equivalent to 0.36% and 0.13% of GNP annually for China and the EU, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is an introduction to a special issue of the Journal of Productivity Analysis focused on African productivity. The special issue was the result of collaboration and planning that began in 2016 and culminated in a virtual conference held in 2021. The conference attracted scholars from 20 different countries who presented papers on topics such as green growth, gender and racial inequalities in academia, trade in services, airline efficiency, age-efficiency nexus in agriculture, and agricultural productivity. The papers in the special issue provide a balanced and broad perspective on these important issues and offer insights for policymakers and practitioners working in these areas. [Extracted from the article]

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will be important policies to constrain China's economic and social development in the future. Based on the theory of computable general equilibrium, CGE model of carbon emission was constructed in this paper to simulate the influence of different scenarios of carbon emission reduction on economic and social development. The major contribution is to subdivide the energy sector according to primary energy and secondary energy, and construct the macro SAM table and micro SAM table of 21 energy sectors in 2017 to quantitatively simulate the impact of carbon emission reduction policies on China's economy and society, and put forward some policy suggestions based on this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a politically and culturally important city cluster, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) has huge electricity and water consumption, while the local power generation capacity and water resources may not be sustainable long term according to the current power generation ratio. We introduced up-to-date strategic policies in China, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (dual carbon goals), to assess their impact on environmental protection and economic development. Thus, we constructed a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to simulate these changes in BTH. We designed four carbon reduction scenarios to explore the impact of policies including carbon taxes, investment, and renewable energy subsidies individually or combined. The findings reveal that implementing these policies together can increase the proportion of renewable energy in power generation to 17.2% (Beijing), 9.4% (Tianjin), and 33.2% (Hebei) by 2060. Under various policy scenarios, the Tax Scenario shows the largest water withdrawal savings, while the Investment Scenario shows the largest GDP growth by 2060. The combined implementation of these policies may minimize the negative impact on the economy while developing an environmentally friendly region. The results of the Combination Scenario are closest to carbon neutrality, narrowing the gap to 10.71%, 9.98%, and 9.85%, respectively. Conservation (water and electricity) and carbon reduction can provide significant support for carbon neutrality and sustainable development strategies. This study contributes to the evaluation of mitigation policies in BTH and provides a concrete policy option to achieve carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a "logistics" model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of "iceberg trade costs", (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints' operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have used theoretical general equilibrium or empirical computable general equilibrium models to analyze the economic and welfare effects of fishery rationalization, adopting a simplistic assumption regarding factor mobility. This study relaxes the simplistic assumption and considers more possibilities of mobility when assessing the effects of rationalization using a computable general equilibrium model for the Gulf of Alaska groundfish trawl fishery. Results demonstrate that the effects of rationalization vary significantly across different factor mobility assumptions, suggesting that the effects computed based on the simplistic assumption could mislead fishery managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a state-of-the-art global general equilibrium model to quantify the effects of an International Carbon Price Floor (ICPF) proposal for the coordination of global climate policy. With the ICPF proposal, countries would implement a carbon price floor that is differentiated according to their level of development. The price floor could be implemented by an actual carbon price or other policies with equivalent stringency. Implementing such a joint effort would be a big step towards aligning global emissions with the Paris Agreement. The study highlights three main findings. First, the ICPF is progressive in terms of emission reductions and demands considerably more effort from high-income countries (HICs). Unlike proposals based on equity principles, however, it requires neither extremely high emission reductions from HICs nor massive financial transfers. Second, the differentiated carbon prices cost only an additional 0.3 percent of global GDP compared to a global uniform carbon price. Third, the ICPF can be as effective as border carbon adjustment (BCA) mechanisms at preserving competitiveness of HICs despite the differentiation in carbon price floors. This means, there would be no need for BCA with an ICPF. Compared to a BCA, HICs can avoid the administrative burden and low-income countries (LICs) will not face the cost of BCA. As a first step to global climate policy, a sectoral ICPF for the EITE sector could be introduced. It would address competitiveness concerns almost as well as the full ICPF. An International Carbon Price Floor (ICPF), with carbon price floors differentiated by development level, would incur only small economic costs compared to baseline economic growth. The ICPF would allow for international burden sharing, with HICs incurring higher cost than middle – and low-income countries. The ICPF reduces distortions to competitiveness as much as BCA, so that no BCA would be necessary. A 'sectoral ICPF' in energy-intensive and trade-exposed sectors would be effective against leakage and loss in competitiveness and would thus be an attractive alternative to border carbon adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recycling carbon tax revenue is a significant part of the design of a nation's carbon tax system. The impact of different recycling principles on the socio-economy and carbon emission reduction varies greatly. Under the background of China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, this paper designed three carbon tax recycling principles based on the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including recycling principles based on output ratio, export ratio, and carbon intensity. A recursively dynamic CGE model was developed in this study to evaluate the economic effects of these three carbon tax recycling principles based on tax neutrality under China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions. Carbon tax recycling measures could mitigate the economic losses caused by carbon tax, and the results could be greatly affected according to different recycling principles. The results showed that: 1 The recycling principle based on output ratio could reduce economic losses and improve households' social welfare. 2 China's carbon intensity in 2030 could be reduced by more than 65% compared with that in 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption could reach 25% using the recycling principle based on carbon intensity, but the economic loss mitigation effect of the recycling measures based on this principle was small. 3 Adopting the recycling principle based on export ratio would narrow the competitive gap between China and foreign countries, and the exports of high-carbon-intensity goods would not increase under this principle. 4 According to principles based on output ratio and export ratio, the NDC goal of non-fossil energy accounting for about 25% of primary energy consumption by 2030 could not be achieved, and only the NDC goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% compared with that of 2005 could be achieved. In brief, as an essential policy tool to achieve China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, the carbon tax should be implemented as soon as possible. At the same time, according to China's national conditions, a targeted choice of carbon tax recycling principle is needed. The role of the carbon tax in the process of achieving the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions should be fully utilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis examines the COVID-19 pandemic's economy-wide global effects, assessing the impact on gross domestic product (GDP) through reduced labor supply and productivity in diverse sectors. Utilizing a Computable General Equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project database, the results highlight the pronounced influence on Light and Heavy manufacturing due to disrupted global supply chains. The vaccination's effectiveness in economic recovery is emphasized, indicating increased labor participation and productivity. The study underscores vaccine disparities among developing nations, affecting global economic resurgence. Overall, it stresses the interconnectedness of COVID-19's impact on national GDP, the manufacturing sectors, and the crucial role of vaccination in driving economic activity and global recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: As one of its major strategies, China has made a new plan to further expand High Standard Farmland (HSF) to all permanent basic farmland (80% of total farmland) for grain security over the next decade. Yet, what will be the impact of farmland infrastructure investment on agrifood systems? The paper aims to systematically evaluate the multiple effects (food security, economy, nutrition and environment) of expanding HSF construction under the context of the "Big Food vision" using an interdisciplinary model. Design/methodology/approach: An interdisciplinary model – AgriFood Systems Model, which links the China CGE model to diet and carbon emission modules, is applied to assess the multiple effects of HSF construction on agrifood systems, such as food security and economic development, residents' diet quality and carbon emissions. Several policy scenarios are designed to capture these effects of the past HSF investment based on counterfactual analysis and compare the effects of HSF future investment at the national level under the conditions of different land use policies – restricting to grain crops or allowing diversification (like vegetables, and fruit). Findings: The investments in HSF offer a promising solution for addressing the challenges of food and nutrition security, economic development and environmental sustainability. Without HSF construction, grain production and self-sufficiency would decline significantly, while the agricultural and agrifood systems' GDP would decrease. The future investment in the HSF construction will further increase both grain production and GDP, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions. Compared with the policy of limiting HSF to planting grains, diversified planting can provide a more profitable economic return, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions. Originality/value: This study contributes to better informing the impact of land infrastructure expanding investment on the agrifood systems from multiple dimensions based on an interdisciplinary model. We suggest that the government consider applying diversified planting in the future HSF investment to meet nutritional and health demands, increase household income and reduce carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The present study aims at quantifying the likely impacts of an environmental tax on macroeconomic variables and pollution in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: The computable general equilibrium model, which allows the prediction of the economy-wide effects of any change in policy instruments, is applied. Findings: The main findings reveal that gross domestic product, private consumption and income in both urban and rural areas will follow a declining trend as a result of environmental tax imposition. In a scenario with the highest level of tax, the predicted percentage change to the gross domestic product and private consumption is estimated at −21.32 and −40.96, respectively. In the same scenario, pollution emissions would decrease by 12.4–22.6% for CO2, CH4 and N2O. Originality/value: This study uses a general equilibrium model to examine the effects of the carbon tax on environmental issues and household welfare, considering the unique conditions and regulations of Iran. While the related literature examines the CO2 tax, the current study covers more pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, SO2 and NOx. In addition, a distinguishing feature of the current study is that it applies a modified version of the social accounting matrix (SAM) database, which includes the heavy subsidies of energy products. Another significant feature of the current study is that it examines tax policy while tax rates are exerted endogenously (compared to previous studies). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life expectancy can reflect both health benefit and implementation cost of climate policy. Nevertheless, little research has quantified the relation between life expectancy and climate policy in literature. In this paper, we attempt to narrow the research gap by studying how life expectancy is related to the Chinese nationwide emission trading scheme (CNETS). To achieve this research target, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to simulate the operation of the economic system and the policy shock from emission abatement. The CGE model results show that life expectancy is prolonged by GDP but shortened by emissions, and the GDP impact on life expectancy is larger than the emission impact. Climate policy has dual effects on life expectancy because it relieves both negative emission impacts and positive GDP impacts on lifespan; its net effect on life expectancy is positive. Life expectancy positively impacts GDP, and this impact is moderated by climate policy; specifically, climate policy reinforces the positive impact of life expectancy on GDP. Life expectancy minimally affects carbon emissions during climate policy implementation; in other words, it has minimal impacts on emission abatement. These findings imply that climate policy and life expectancy complement each other; the government could implement climate policy to increase lifespan or prolong life expectancy to facilitate policy implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation of the previous centrally growth-oriented economic systems to a sustainable bio-economy is a global political trend, where public policy is a key factor in making this successful. Designing effective and efficient policies requires understanding the linkages between policy choices and outcomes. Most existing studies are missing a direct link to policy choices and ignore fundamental model uncertainty present in policy analysis. We empirically estimate a sector-specific, nested two-stage policy impact function to address these shortcomings. We apply a Bayesian estimation approach that combines existing statistical data with a priori information from political experts, thus reducing data and estimation problems. This is linked with a Computable General Equilibrium to model the entire link from policies to outcomes. We derive a theoretical framework that allows the definition of indicators for key sectors of an efficient Pro-Poor-Growth strategy. In our generalized framework, we show that indicators based only on growth-poverty linkages might be misleading. To deal with model uncertainty inherent in the application, we derive a set of metamodels via simulations conducted under different model parameter settings and apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Applying Bayesian model selection allows drawing statistical inferences on competing models to generate relatively robust policy-relevant messages even under model uncertainty. The approach is empirically applied to Ghana, Senegal, and Uganda, analyzing the allocation of public spending on agriculture under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. [EconLit Citations: C11--Bayesian Analysis: General; C63--Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling; D58--Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; O55--Africa; Q01--Sustainable Development; Q18--Agricultural Policy]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Earth observation (EO) technologies, such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar, can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public. We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects. We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County, California as a case study. We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context. We found that despite limitations, EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution, which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results. The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters, as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers, whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.

Amidst economic downturn pressures, major countries emphasized the manufacturing industry and increased research and development (R&D) investments to realize innovation in manufacturing. Manufacturing enterprises are the main performers of R&D investments, so it is imperative for policymakers to accurately evaluate the policy effect of different industrial tendency and policy intensity on growth. The impact of the overall R&D expenditure on macroeconomy or the effectiveness of enterprises' R&D investment on business profit has been reported in a great deal of literature, but so far, the impacts of enterprises' R&D have little been experimented at the macro level and industrial level. This paper improves the knowledge production function and structured a regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the multi-dimensional macroeconomic impact of enterprises' R&D investment. The results show that enterprises' R&D investment has a significant role in promoting economic output, residents' welfare, price control, and international trade, and its impact is declining over time. The impacts of enterprises' R&D on different industries are heterogeneous; industries with lower knowledge capital are more sensitive to R&D investment. These findings contribute to the effectiveness of R&D policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated shocks to fragile economies call into question the feasibility of the achievement of the sustainable development goals. This study uses a gender‐dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked to a micro model to assess the impacts of the war in Ukraine and climate shocks on SDG1, SDG2, SDG5 and SDG8 for Burkina Faso's economy. The results reveal negative impacts on economic growth with an increase in food insecurity and household poverty. Urban households are the most affected by food insecurity, while unskilled men are most likely to lose their jobs in the short run. In the long run, however, women experience more job losses than men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, digital transformation is included in the heterogeneity model of firms. Based on a general equilibrium analysis, we find that under the effect of diminishing marginal productivity, digital transformation does not always have a positive impact on firms' markups, but has an "inverted U-shaped" nonlinear influence, which first promotes and then inhibits markups. Firm innovation and firm productivity are the key micro-mechanisms for the above effects to play a role. Based on the analysis of typical facts and empirical data of listed companies, the measurement test yields the following results. First, digital transformation can significantly improve firms' markups when it is below a specific threshold value, but it will have a negative impact when it exceeds this value. That is, there is an "inverted U-shaped" nonlinear relationship between digital transformation and firms' markups. Second, the heterogeneity analysis shows that digital transformation has a greater effect on the markups of state-owned firms, export firms and technology-intensive firms than on the markups of other firms. Third, digital transformation has an impact on firms' markups through two key mechanisms: firm innovation ability and production efficiency. The quantitative empirical results confirm the correctness of the theoretical expectations. Therefore, firms need to grasp the strategic opportunities brought by the progress of digital technology and accelerate the process of promoting the digital transformation. Firms should make proper choices in the selection and arrangement of key areas, as well as avoid possible problems such as "too much". In this way, we can better consolidate the micro foundation of China's high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anticipated increase in future river flood risk highlights the need for effective flood insurance, as it enables hedging against this risk. However, its design varies significantly across countries. This study contributes to the debate on designing flood insurance mechanisms from an economy-wide perspective, considering both socioeconomic and climate changes. We apply a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for 2050 and find that, under current insurance market systems, flood risk causes regional GDP losses of up to −0.5%, societal welfare losses of up to −1%, and private and public consumption losses of up to −0.5% and −2.4%, respectively. These estimates are all relative to a scenario without flood risk. Our results indicate that flood risk intensifies pressure on public budgets. We find that insurance market reforms, including a higher degree of risk-sharing, mandatory purchase requirements, and public reinsurance, can alleviate adverse welfare effects and the burden on public budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The three budgetary plans under Biden's presidency—the American Rescue Plan, the American Families Plan, and the American Job Plan–encompass a set of measures meant to expand investments, support production processes, stimulate private consumption, and protect the labor market through transfers, tax credits, production subsidies, and federal unemployment benefits. Thus, besides relieving the economic system, these plans aim to drastically reduce poverty. This study attempts to disentangle the direct, indirect, and induced economic effects generated by these plans in a well-defined time-lapse through a dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on the social accounting matrix for the US. This approach enables the simulation of shocks from both the demand and supply sides, as well as policies for income redistribution. The simulation scenarios' results prove the plans' effectiveness vis-à-vis economic growth and support to households, as well as the peculiar effects on income inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike the decarbonization trajectories adopted by developed countries, some research suggests that non-pricing policies should be prioritized over pricing policies to mitigate carbon emissions in developing economies. This paper enriches the current literature on carbon pricing by empirically linking China's carbon pricing and non-pricing policies, using a difference-in-differences approach. The results indicate the effectiveness of the carbon pricing strategy. Furthermore, by introducing an interaction effect model, we find that a higher carbon price will significantly increase the carbon emission abatement effects. In conclusion, the findings highlight the necessity of carbon pricing instruments for decarbonization in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates a medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Thai economy to evaluate the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic containment policy on key macroeconomic aggregates. The shock to labor supply is considered as the main transmission channel. The paper discussed the role of monetary policy in regard to economic recovery and also identified the dominant shocks driving the business cycle. Thai quarterly series from 2011Q1 to 2021Q2 is used for the Bayesian estimation of the model. Though the pandemic shock caused a sharp decline in output, consumption and investment, the results suggest a fast recovery in the growth rates of the variables in about 2.5 years. At the same time, the dominant shocks that account for output variation in the medium to long term are investment, labor supply and productivity shocks. Monetary policy is effective in shortening the recovery due to its impact on private investment. The key drivers of Thai household consumption in the long run are investment, labor supply and productivity shocks. On average, the investment shock appears to be the key driver of the business cycle at all horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to provide trade gains for Africa, especially from reducing non‐tariff measures (NTM). Unfortunately, data on NTMs is scarce, both by country and sector. Using three underlying NTM data sets and other data sources, we provide a range of estimates to fill the missing gaps in the existing estimates. Focusing on agriculture, we then use a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the effects of the AfCFTA. Results from all three data sets indicate that NTM reduction leads to much greater intra‐Africa trade gains than tariff reduction alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multilateral economic sanctions jointly sent by the United States and its allies were studied theoretically and quantitatively. Theory provides an interdependence explanation for the current trend in economic sanctions, arguing that it constitutes an inherent motivation for the United States and its allies to act in concert to maintain the current 'unipolar' situation and to impede the development of any 'multipolar' alternative. Quantitatively, a computable general equilibrium model simulating the impact of the multilateral trade sanctions imposed in response to the Russia–Ukraine conflict was evaluated to support the interdependence view of economic sanctions. The results suggest that the interdependencies among the United States and its allies would be strengthened by sanctions, especially at the production end. By contrast, economic sanctions weaken the interdependencies between the sanction target and sanction senders, as well as between the sanction target and other major economies. The interdependencies between sanction target and world's major economies tend to be simplified, indicating a weakened role of sanction target in the global economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's social safety net is still underdeveloped, hence family support in the form of intergenerational transfers often serves as a substitute for the public transfer system. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this paper finds that both upstream inter‐vivos transfers (from children to parents) and downstream inter‐vivos transfers (from parents to children) are prevalent in urban China. Moreover, the relative income status of the parent and children has an impact on inter‐vivos transfers. To investigate what economic factors generate the observed patterns of inter‐vivos transfers, this paper adopts a general equilibrium life‐cycle model in which overlapping generations are altruistically linked and calibrates the model to match data from urban China. Counterfactual experiments of removing one source of economic risk or modifying the social security replacement rate from the baseline model at a time reveal that intergenerational transfers mainly serve as informal insurance against the income risk of the children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]