Search

Motivation: Policy‐makers dealing with conflicting development goals and constrained budgets must comprehend the relative cost effectiveness of agricultural and rural development initiatives. Purpose: We assess the impact of alternative interventions on development outcomes—economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality—to inform decision‐making and resource allocation in Tanzania's agriculture. We analyse trade‐offs among development objectives and explore budget reallocation to enhance the efficiency of public spending. Approach and methods: We used a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model linked top‐down with microsimulation modules to simulate the impact of public investment options. Findings: No single option emerges as the most effective across all development objectives. Investments in improved inputs and extension for horticulture and cash crops stand out for diet quality and employment creation. Livestock services show consistently high rankings across multiple objectives. Investments to boost cereals and root crops promote growth and reduce poverty but do little to increase employment and diet quality. Budget reallocation towards more cost‐effective interventions can significantly enhance the development effectiveness of Tanzania's agricultural expenditures and would substantially increase cumulative gross domestic product growth between 2019 and 2028. Policy implications: Policy‐makers can use the findings to design and prioritize agricultural interventions that better align with broader development objectives. Tanzania can achieve higher benefits and contribute to overall development goals by reallocating resources towards more cost‐effective expenditure options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become a worldwide environmental problem, posing a great threat to human survival. As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China has pledged to reach peak carbon emissions by no later than 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. It is found that a carbon tax is a powerful incentive to reduce carbon emissions and promote an energy revolution, but it may have negative socio-economic impacts. Therefore, based on China's 2020 input–output table, this paper systematically investigates the impacts of a carbon tax on China's economy, carbon emissions, and energy by applying a computable general equilibrium model to determine the ideal equilibrium between socio-economic and environmental objectives. Based on energy use characteristics, we subdivided the energy sector into five major sectors: coal, oil, natural gas, thermal power generation, and clean power. The results show that when the carbon emission reduction target is less than 15%, that is, when the equilibrium carbon tax price is less than 54 yuan/ton, the implementation of a carbon tax policy can significantly reduce carbon emission and fossil fuel energy consumption, while only slightly reducing economic growth rate, and can achieve the double dividend of environment and economy. Moreover, because the reduction of coal consumption has the greatest impact on reducing carbon emissions, the ad valorem tax rate on coal after the carbon tax is imposed is the highest because coal has the highest carbon emission coefficient among fossil fuels. In addition, as an emerging clean energy source, hydrogen energy is the ideal energy storage medium for achieving clean power generation in power systems. If hydrogen energy can be vigorously developed, it is expected to greatly accelerate the deep decarbonization of power, industry, transportation, construction, and other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately evaluating the effectiveness of the energy consumption "dual control" policy can effectively solve serious the current environmental pollution and promote ecological civilization. However, researchers have rarely considered the impacts on the regional "resource curse" of the energy consumption "dual control" policy. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) was built to evaluate the impacts on the regional "resource curse" of the energy intensity control and total energy control policy. The results showed the following. (1) The energy consumption "dual control" policy changes the supply-and-demand relationship of factors and reduces the crowding-out effect of humans and capital. (2) The energy consumption "dual control" policy has restrained GDP growth, and the total output and total investment have declined. However, the impact in regions without the "resource curse" is remarkable. (3) The energy consumption "dual control" policy has a significant inhibitory effect on major pollutants and carbon emissions. (4) The energy consumption "dual control" policy has played a positive role in breaking the regional "resource curse". The areas with a high and low "resource curse" have become smaller, and the areas without the "resource curse" have increased significantly. The following suggestions are made: (1) increase the flexibility of the "dual control" policy of energy consumption, (2) establish an energy consumption budget management system, and (3) accelerate the establishment of a carbon footprint management system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the beginning of 2020, the world experienced the COVID-19 pandemic in which several countries all around the world closed their borders and established isolation measures. These types of measures, in line with the spread of the virus, mainly affected those sectors where face-to-face interaction and mobility were central, as it was the case in the tourism sector. As a response to this crisis, some countries implemented policies to promote tourism within the same country. In this paper, we study the case of a tourist program applied in Argentina and estimate its effects on the tourism sector and the overall economy with a general equilibrium perspective addressing its implications in a context where government's budget constraints are binding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UEFA EURO 2020 is the first multi‐hosting mega‐event developed on the entire continent. Often, mega‐events concentrated in one place have turned out to have a modest, or adverse, economic impact due to high costs. Therefore, the ex‐post assessment of the local impact of the four matches played in Rome as a mega‐event is an interesting case study. To this end, we use a Computable General Equilibrium model based on the Lazio regional Social Accounting Matrix. We estimate a significant Gross Domestic Product multiplier at around 1.45. Furthermore, in terms of employment, the event generates an additional net volume equivalent to 9762 full‐time jobs per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to alter both forest stand- and landscape-level dynamics through a change in environmental characteristics. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests throughout the world, there is need to further refine such analyses. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS–LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (computable general equilibrium) model to better account for the economic impact associated with climate-induced impacts on forest stand- and landscape-level structure and composition dynamics. Applying this framework to a case-study region of New Brunswick, Canada, we estimate that climate change will reduce softwood supply by 16%–73% and impact hardwood supply in the range of −2% to +4% by 2150. The change in wood supply is estimated to reduce the value of the softwood and hardwood forestry and logging sector output by up to 51% and 17%, respectively, by 2150. These sector-level impacts may lead to a 0.08%–0.88% reduction in annual gross domestic product by 2150. The methodological advances established in this study can be used to better inform future forest management and economic plans that aim to lessen both the ecological and economic impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Technology Economics is the property of Chinese Society of Technology Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The gravity model is the workhorse model of trade. Yet, many economists still view gravity as a reduced‐form estimating equation and apply it without guidance from theory, while others are skeptical about its usefulness for counterfactual projections. This paper offers a historical overview of the evolution of gravity, from an a‐theoretical application to an estimating computable general equilibrium model, which can be nested in more complex frameworks. Along the way, I address some misconceptions about gravity, summarize the current recommendations for gravity estimations, highlight properties that have made gravity so successful, and review the latest contributions to the related literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to simulate the effect of land revenue policy reform in China under the shock of tax policy reform. To this end, this research has built a computable general equilibrium model and collected data from China's input–output table for 2017 to construct the China land revenue social accounting matrix for 2017. Five scenarios of land reform policy have been considered. The first scenario concerns a reduction in the construction land supply; the simulation shows that the reform will lead to increasing real estate prices, which will result in a crowding-out effect for the manufacturing industry. The second scenario involves levying a property tax nationwide, which will restrain the trend of the increase in the real estate price and increase the local governments' revenue, although household income and economic growth will be restrained. The third scenario has to do with a reduction in the deed tax. The simulation shows that this reform can alleviate the negative impact on the economy. The fourth scenario is related to a combination of the first and second scenarios, which will lead to a decrease in employment demand and an increase in land financial revenue. Finally, the fifth scenario is also a combined policy involving the first, second and third scenarios, which will result in higher urban and rural household income than the fourth scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The range of changes in the characteristics of powder mixtures, even of the same brand, expands due to different storage periods and progressive degradation of the powders. The need to simplify the procedure for determining the composition and energy characteristics of the powders used is emphasized. The purpose of simplification is to increase the number of quality control points for incoming charges, bring them closer to combat formations, and reduce the requirements for service personnel. It is proposed to determine the actual composition and energy characteristics of the powder charge based on the library method. This approach requires a large amount of calculations - multiple solutions to the problem of equilibrium conversion of the original powder mixture into combustion products. But these calculations for a given brand of powder are carried out in advance, once and in laboratory conditions. The characteristics of a specific charge sample are determined using library data based on the measured technological parameters of its combustion process - the mass of the burned sample and the temperature of the powder gases. To be able to take into account soot formation and gaseous products of thermal destruction of powder when solving problems for filling the library, the equilibrium model of such a process has been modernized. Instead of partial pressures and concentrations of substances, their mole fractions are considered. The use of partial pressures is convenient when there are only gaseous products. The use of mole fractions made it possible to uniformly take into account the gaseous and condensed phases of combustion products. The modernized calculation model was verified by comparing the obtained results with known data. The need to validate the list of combustion products in each case under consideration was determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing "resource curse" phenomena relating to energy resources in China, research concerning energy substitution policies has become more meaningful. In this paper, a dynamic CGE model was built to evaluate the impacts of energy substitution policies on regional growth and the "resource curse". The results show the following: (1) Compared to other regions, an energy substitution policy exerts a more considerable influence on economic growth in regions with high "resource curse". (2) The changes in carbon emissions in regions with no or low "resource curse" are modest. The primary factor contributing to the rapid decline might be energy structure adjustments. As the intensity of substitution varies, the regional disparities in marginal emission reduction costs are expected to increase. (3) Energy substitution policies reduce the severity of high "resource curse" regions. As the intensity of energy substitution increases, the extent of "resource curse" regions decreases accordingly. Some suggestions are given as follows: (1) Further promote energy substitution and speed up the transformation of energy production and consumption modes in China. (2) Accelerate the energy transformation in "resource curse" regions to promote regional sustainable development. (3) Improve energy substitution policies in transportation, industry and other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify, with profound effects on global supply security of key mineral resources. Considering China's high dependence on foreign iron ore, once there is an import shortage, what impacts will it have on China's macro-economy and environment? Thus, using a computable general equilibrium model, this study introduced import supply disruption behaviour to assess the economy-wide and environmental effects of a large-scale iron ore import shortage on China. Furthermore, two supporting measures of enhancing upstream mining and cancelling steel import tariffs were constructed. The results demonstrated that an import shortage of iron ore will generate a negative effect on China's GDP and household welfare, wherein the higher the disruption degree, the greater the negative effect will be, and the maximum loss of GDP is 5.6 % in 2035. Secondly, total energy demand has reduced obviously, and the largest decline is 8.8 % in 2035. Particularly, the coal demand is most negatively affected by GDP loss, shrinking by up to 11.4 % by 2035. Meanwhile, the oil and gas demands have also dropped to some degree. Thirdly, the import disruption will help to reduce carbon emissions (by up to 9.9 % in 2035), but also have obvious environmental benefits. Finally, both measures will help alleviate the negative socio-economic impacts; however, the overall effects will be better if enhancing upstream mining is complemented by carbon pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposed reductions in farm input uses foreseen in the European Green Deal may penalize European farm production while increasing environmental leakages to foreign countries where production may expand. These expected impacts have led to calls for a more restrictive trade policy based on mirror clauses. This paper considers as a case study a potential ban on glyphosate in vegetable and fruits production. We develop an original computable general equilibrium model with endogenous adoption of new European production standards by foreign producers on currently latent markets. We find in our case study that adding mirror clauses to the Green Deal marginally improves European farm income and the global environmental footprint of food. We find that foreign producers as a whole can gain from these clauses and not lose as in a standard analysis. European households support these clauses by paying higher food bills while consuming vegetables and fruits produced without glyphosate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is an impending mechanism that imposes a price on emissions embodied in products imported to the European Union (EU). It is expected to impact international trade substantially. Meanwhile, the Russia‐Ukraine war has been ongoing since March 2022, and resources are being redistributed accordingly. This study simulates the potential impact of CBAM on trade in the Russia‐Ukraine war context by employing the Computable General Equilibrium models. The simulation results show that the CBAM will significantly affect selected countries, and the impact will vary across countries and industries. In the context of the Russia‐Ukraine war, the influence on trade will be considerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Planning Education & Research is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction: By constructing a computable general equilibrium model of "carbon trading" and "carbon trade-carbon tax", this study aims to deeply explore the combined impact of these two policies on China's economic development and carbon emission reduction, so as to provide scientific decision support for policy makers. Methods: In order to accurately simulate the economic effects of carbon trading policies, the carbon trading module was introduced in detail in the "carbon trading" model, and the carbon trading cost was incorporated into the elastic substitution function production module. At the same time, in order to comprehensively evaluate the effect of the combination policy of "carbon trade-carbon tax", the cost of carbon tax is included in the constant elastic substitution function of production in the model. Results and Discussion: Through in-depth data analysis and model calculation, it is found that although a single carbon trading policy can effectively promote the reduction of carbon emissions, its impact on the economy is relatively moderate, especially in promoting the technological upgrading of the power industry. The "carbon trade-carbon tax" combination policy has further strengthened the emission reduction action, in a number of industrial sectors, such as coal, power, heavy industry and light industry, by significantly increasing the cost of carbon emissions to promote emission reduction. The above results show that carbon tax policies play an important role in balancing carbon emission reduction and economic development. Compared with the single carbon trading policy, the introduction of carbon tax makes the emission reduction efforts of various departments more comprehensive, and also contributes to the stable development of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh will graduate from the LDC list by 2026. Currently, Bangladesh's exports of readymade garments (RMG) benefit from international support measures which allow preferential trade in major export destinations, such as the EU. After graduation, Bangladesh's exports, particularly RMG, will face competition from mega trading blocs, such as RCEP and CPTPP. This article employs the GTAP model to estimate the impact of Bangladesh's graduation from the LDC category and how mega FTAs are likely to affect Bangladesh's exports and potential welfare. The model also considers the scenarios of either United States or the UK or both joining the CPTPP. The model results show that Bangladesh's graduation will lead to a fall in GDP and RMG exports by 1.53% and 11.8%, respectively. The negative impact is magnified when we factor in the mega-trading blocs. Further negative impacts are observed when either United States or the UK or both join the CPTPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture plays a crucial role in the economy of Burkina Faso and other sub-Saharan African countries. It provides food for the population and is the primary source of employment in rural areas. The government of Burkina Faso has implemented a 2018–2027 Agro-Sylvo-Pastoral production sector policy to improve agricultural productivity and reduce poverty. This study uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model, which evaluates the impact of subsidizing investment in agricultural capital on production, income, and poverty under three different fiscal financing scenarios. The results indicate that the agricultural mechanization subsidy program effectively reduces poverty, but the extent of the reduction varies depending on the financing method used. Financing the subsidy by reducing nonproductive public expenditure further reduces poverty, especially in rural areas. However, it is essential to supplement the subsidy policy with an agricultural extension service program for the program to have long-lasting effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a social and economic impact analysis of the Burundi political crisis (2015 to 2017) accompanied by economic sanctions. We perform our analysis with a macro–micro-simulation framework. We constructed a macro–micro analytical framework that includes a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation (MS) model. This framework allows us to link shocks of a more macroeconomic nature such as reductions in foreign aid, reductions in the supply of public services, on household decomposed to focus the analysis on children. Scenarios were designed and applied to capture the sanctions associated with the crisis and other manifestations of the crisis. The distributional analysis is performed with the standard indices (FGT and Gini), and we innovated by extending our social analysis on five social indicators by combining results from our CGE model and elasticities linking growth and social indicators from the literature. The macroeconomic and sectoral results show significant negative effects on GDP, skilled employment, and unemployment. The social impact analysis carried out with our framework and with observed data shows a very significant negative impact on the five social indicators selected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the potential economic impacts in Argentina of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which as of January 2025 will prohibit the export to the European Union of certain raw materials and related products if they involve the use of deforested land. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the impact of such regulation on the Argentine economy. The results suggest that the potential macroeconomic impacts are limited. As a consequence of the EUDR, between 2025 and 2030, GDP would be reduced by an average of 0.46% with respect to the baseline scenario. However, of greater magnitude is the potential environmental impact. Deforested hectares would be reduced by 6.64% and polluting gas emissions by 0.39%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes. The projections indicate that (i) because of projected reductions in trade costs, trade will grow more than GDP, generating a global trade‐to‐GDP growth rate of 1.1; (ii) because of structural change, the global share of manufacturing trade falls from 64% in 2020 to 52% by 2050, whereas the share of services trade rises substantially from 24% to 38%; and (iii) because of technological catch‐up, the share in global trade of both developing and least‐developed countries (LDCs) will rise (with developing countries overtaking developed economies around 2035), the share of intra‐developed country trade will fall, whereas the share of intra‐developing country trade and those between developing and developed countries will rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how sectoral linkages amplify or diminish misallocation at the intensive and extensive margins. Our analysis is based on a multisector general equilibrium model with input–output linkages, heterogeneous entrepreneurial abilities, and endogenous occupational choice. Distortions affect the intensive use of production inputs and they also impact the agents' occupational decisions, misallocating the mass and type of entrepreneurs in different sectors of production. When the most distorted sectors are upstream (downstream), input–output linkages amplify (diminish) the loss from entreprenurial misallocation. We calibrate the model to the US and quantify the output losses from sectoral corporate taxes, decomposing the role of networks and the extensive margin decisions. We find that sectoral linkages quadruple the loss from the misallocation of entrepreneurs. We study an entry subsidy program, showing that it should target those sectors whose marginal entrepreneurs suffer larger profit losses, even if they are not necessarily the most distorted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inter-basin water transfer projects are among the highly controversial issues in water supply policies. These projects have economic effects on the sources and destination areas. The costs and benefits of these projects should be investigated for their justification. This study examines the economic and welfare impacts of the Taleghan Water Transfer Project (TWTP) in Iran using a water-embedded multi-regional computable general equilibrium (WMRCGE) model. The results indicate that the increase in the equivalent variation (EV) of the water-receiving area is 6.9 times greater than the EV loss in the water supply area. Thus, the welfare improvement in the water-receiving area is much higher than the welfare loss in the water-supplying area. The results also indicated that the increase in total output in the water-receiving region is three times the total output reduction in the water supply region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sheds some light on the consequences of a carbon tax increase to achieve the national goal for carbon emissions. By use of a spatial computable general equilibrium model, STRAGO, the main purpose of the paper is to illustrate the effects on sectors in the economy and regions in Sweden from a climate scenario, by estimating expected substitution effects from a predetermined reduction in emissions. The climate scenario implies a gradual increase in the current carbon tax until the goal for the reduction in emissions has been reached. Doubling the carbon tax rate is expected to reduce the total consumption of fossil fuels by 18%, and in terms of reduced emissions and total welfare, the results are of the same order of magnitude as in previous Swedish studies. At the regional level, the effect on production is largest in Region West, as the production of petroleum and a large part of manufacturing is concentrated to this region. In terms of regional welfare, the northern regions, Upper-north in particular, lose more than central regions, which reflects differences in both industrial structure and carbon intensity, due to different transportation expenditures. The impact on welfare in northern regions is however mitigated by the substitution from fossil fuels to biofuels, as production of biofuels is concentrated to these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports an analysis using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to calculate the economic development and emissions under different air pollution prevention strategies, with a focus on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei rim surrounding the cities in the 'Capital Economic Circle'. It appeared that raising the emission tax effectively suppressed air pollution but also suppressed economic development. Raising the emission subsidy promoted economic development, but did not suppress air pollution. A stepwise tax collection mode can be used to formulate the emission tax. When using emission subsidies to encourage manufacturers to improve their exhaust treatment technology, the policy should be tilted towards small enterprises to reduce economic pressure on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The newly updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outline a carbon reduction trajectory capable of achieving the 2 ℃ temperature control target stipulated by the Paris Agreement, marking a milestone in global efforts to combat climate change. However, existing literature lacks research on the economic and energy impact effects of implementing the updated NDCs. In this context, this study utilizes the Global Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (GDyn-E) to predict and compare the dynamic impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs on medium to long-term economic growth, as well as the level of energy dependence in major countries and regions like China. The findings show that: ① China's implementation of its new NDC targets, namely the ‘dual carbon’ goals, is outstanding both in terms of relative and absolute emission reductions, positioning it alongside developed economies such as the United States and the European Union to lead global carbon reduction efforts and make significant contributions to global climate governance. ② The economic impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs would demonstrate strong regional heterogeneity. The Chinese economy would experience minimal negative impacts, with an actual GDP loss rate ranging from approximately 0.27% to 1.12% by 2050. The United States and the European Union would also display good economic resilience, but less developed regions and net fossil energy exporting countries would face more severe economic losses. ③ Net fossil energy-importing countries could reap the synergistic benefits of carbon reduction and enhanced energy independence, but net fossil fuel-exporting countries would see a decline in export revenues. Due to reduced fossil energy imports and increased exports of renewable electricity, China's energy external dependence would continuously decrease after 2030. Simultaneously, the share of non-fossil energy would increase significantly, and the diversification of fossil energy import sources would help enhance China's overall energy security. This study points out that, in the process of implementing the ‘dual carbon’ goals, China should timely observe and urge the fulfillment of NDCs by all countries, actively provide green aid, strengthen international cooperation on climate change, and expand energy trading partners to promote the development of clean energy trade. The study reveals the significant impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs on the economic development and energy external dependence of major countries and regions like China, providing policy guidance for China in coordinating carbon reduction, economic development, and energy security while deeply engaging in global climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As economies around the world are increasing their mitigation ambitions, Azerbaijan's lingering dependency on fossil fuel exports threatens its medium – and long-term economic development prospects. Global decarbonization is expected to directly impact the country's resource rents through lower fossil fuel demand and prices. In this regard, it is crucial to understand the potential implications of the global mitigation efforts on the economy of Azerbaijan and evaluate the domestic mitigation policies. To address this gap in the literature, we use a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model and explore a set of forward-looking climate policy scenarios till 2060. Our results suggest that while being adversely impacted by decarbonization efforts in countries around the world, it is in Azerbaijan's self-interest to implement domestic mitigation policies. With proper sequencing and design of such policies, including a combination of fossil-fuel subsidies reform, the introduction of carbon prices post-2030 and recycling of the additionally collected revenue via reduced factor taxes, the country could achieve NDC targets, boost economic growth and increase economic diversification. More ambitious mitigation efforts, consistent with reaching net-zero emissions by 2060 would result in substantial health co-benefits from improved air quality, which could almost fully outweigh the direct economic costs of such mitigation. While being exposed to the declining global fossil fuel demand and prices that accompany decarbonization efforts in countries around the world, it is in Azerbaijan's self-interest to implement domestic mitigation policies. Achievement of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) via the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, the introduction of carbon prices post-2030 and recycling of the additionally collected revenue via reduced factor taxes is the most economically attractive option for Azerbaijan. Reduced levels of air pollution that accompany low-carbon transition result in substantial health-related co-benefits increasing the net welfare gains under NDC scenarios and compensating between 60% and 80% of the mitigation costs under the net-zero mitigation case in Azerbaijan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The discourse on global value chains (GVC) is undergoing a transformation in terms of its conceptualisation, theorisation and pragmatic applications. Today, the production systems have become more complex as global economic order continues to witness marked geo-economic manoeuvring. Thus, the direction of discourse on GVC ought to move from mere theoretical propositions toward becoming more evidence based. There have been recent studies that have used the governance and upgrading propositions by Gary Gereffi and others to seek quantitative evidence. This study aims to decipher the quantitative discourse on GVC and to set the emerging and future research agenda. Design/methodology/approach: Through a systematic literature review, the authors first analyse the quantitative studies on GVC carried out during the last two decades. The authors then outline a future research agenda and examine a few relevant modelling techniques that could potentially be used to solicit newer evidence in GVC research. Findings: The authors categorise the quantitative discourse on GVC into three crucial themes, namely, GVC framework, GVC participation and position, environmental aspects and regionalisation in GVC. The most commonly used quantitative techniques are gravity model, panel data estimation, structural decomposition analysis and computable general equilibrium modelling. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the GVC discourse in two ways. Firstly, the authors argue that the theoretical frameworks within the GVC discourse should be complemented by evidence-based quantitative studies. Secondly, the authors suggest potential modelling techniques that can be used on the emerging and future research agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geo‐political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to re‐evaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering friendshoring – trading primarily with countries sharing similar values – as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This article estimates the economic costs of friendshoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter‐country inter‐industry linkages. The results suggest that friendshoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.7% of GDP in some economies. Thus, although friendshoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a substantial cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the common time frame of the Paris Agreement, all parties are expected to submit a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035 by 2025. Their carbon reduction efforts for 2035 will be a crucial link between the current NDCs and long-term commitments to carbon neutrality and will be of great significance to whether the world can ultimately achieve the temperature-control goal of 2 °C/1.5 °C. This study examines the United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU), the two largest carbon-emitting developed economies, along with China and India, the two largest carbon-emitting emerging economies. The aim is to infer their potential carbon reduction efforts in 2035 from the perspective of bridging NDCs and carbon neutrality pledges. This study also explores the support for the 2 °C/1.5 °C goal and the economic costs of such efforts using a carbon allowance allocation framework and a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that: ① Moving from the NDCs toward carbon neutrality, China′s carbon emissions per unit of GDP in 2035 could decline by 73%~77% from 2005, the U.S. carbon emissions could decline by 61%~67% from 2005, the EU carbon emissions could decline by 65%~70% from 1990, and India′s carbon emissions per unit of GDP could decline by 51%~58% from 2005. ② These carbon reduction efforts may support a 2 °C-consistent global carbon emissions pathway in 2035. However, to support a 1.5 °C-consistent global pathway, the U.S. and the EU would have to achieve zero or even negative carbon emissions in 2035, and China would have to reduce its carbon emissions to about 5 Gt CO2. ③ In a non-cooperation scenario, China would face a GDP loss of 0.36%~0.58% in 2035 to achieve the above carbon reduction efforts, which is comparable to that of the U.S. (0.36%~ 0.52%) and slightly lower than that of the EU (0.49%~0.80%). Being at a relatively lagging stage of development, India would have a GDP loss (0.26%~0.81%) more susceptible to carbon reduction efforts. Enhancing cooperation can help achieve carbon reductions at lower economic costs, and the overall GDP loss of the four emitters is expected to decrease from 0.39%~0.65% in a non-cooperation scenario to 0.21%~0.41% in a cooperation scenario. It is suggested that China promptly deepens research on emission reduction efforts and implementation pathways for 2035 and further promotes transnational cooperation and exchanges in addressing climate change, thereby supporting the globle achievement of the Paris climate goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Higher fertility rate induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. • The three-child policy slightly increases fertility intention. • The three-child policy increases emission abatement of the designed emission trading scheme. • In emission trading scheme, technological progress increases GDP and decreases total emissions. • The three-child policy strengthens technological impacts on GDP but weakens technological impacts on emissions. Although population growth plays a vital role in driving anthropogenic climate change, fertility impact on achieving mitigation target is usually overlooked in literature. This paper attempts to narrow the research gap by employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the interrelations among fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy in China. The model results show that fertility rate negatively correlates with GDP and emissions because higher fertility induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. The three-child policy raises fertility intention; it does not unidirectionally influence the effects of the emission trading scheme (ETS) on employment and GDP, but it increases ETS emission abatement. Technological progress increases GDP and decreases emissions; the three-child policy strengthens technological impact on GDP but weakens technological impact on emissions. Hence, technological progress benefits emission mitigation; the three-child policy enhances economic benefits but impairs emission abatement of technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Agent-based modelling is a powerful tool for evaluating the impact of the circular economy (CE). • Agent-based CE literature is fragmented and lacks a comprehensive framework. • Our systemic review finds three main themes in the literature. • We develop an integrated framework for agent-based model that complements general equilibrium models. • Our insights contribute to the theory and open future avenues of research. Circular Economy (CE) is a popular topic for governments and businesses around the world; yet, only a few comprehensive and economy-wide frameworks exist, and the consequences of the CE on economic systems stay unclear. With this systematic review, we put under scrutiny the existing contributions to Circular Economy (CE) that apply the Agent-based modelling methodology. There is an open gap in the CE literature regarding the use of ABM. The research question that guides this systematic review concerns the potential benefit of ABM for CE and how to use this methodology in the context of CE. We put in evidence three thematic areas, two agents and one process, namely producers , i.e. firms and industrial systems, consumers , i.e. households and waste disposal, and the diffusion of innovation. We infer that the former three thematic strands of literature can be further synthetized together to form a general model of the Circular Economy. This development is crucial to properly evaluate how the agent's heterogeneity affects the diffusion and the consequences of the adoption of CE practices on the economy. Research has widely applied ABM simulations to consider the impact of heterogeneity amongst individuals and their behavioural interactions on the evolution of complex systems, yet very little did it systematically about CE. Our results complement those of Computable General Equilibrium models. The review provides an interpretative framework, suggests valuable future research directions within the new comprehensive thematic area, and contributes to the theoretical and managerial discussion on agent-based modelling in the circular economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• South Asia is geographically connected, but highly dis-integrated, with more than 90 % outward-oriented trade. • The cumbersome procedures, ruthless application of Non-Tariff Measures (NTM's), and restrictions are the biggest challenges for trade in this region. • Against this backdrop, this research measures the economic impact of Mutual recognition of Standards in South Asia. • Simulation results suggest that if standards are mutually recognized then all countries will be better off, and intra-regional trade and welfare are forecasted to increase. • SAFTA should proceed to establish such a mechanism that enables member countries to recognize the certificates and tests approved by the exporting countries. SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) is not a success story. Geographically connected, but highly dis-integrated, with more than 90 % outward-oriented trade, this is the case of South Asia. Of course, military, and political tensions are the major obstacles. However, recent data and studies show that cumbersome procedures, ruthless application of NTMs (Non-Tariff Measures) and restrictions are the biggest challenges for trade in the region. NTMs are important for public health and the environment but if such standards are mutually recognized through bilateral or multilateral agreements then the hectic and lengthy procedures can be avoided. This is the basic hypothesis investigated and checked in this research. Taking four economies, (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and SriLanka) two-step process is adopted; firstly, AVEs (Ad Valorem Equivalents) of NTMs are calculated and then incorporated in an extended GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) based CGE model. Simulation results suggest that if standards are mutually recognized then all countries will be better off, intra-regional trade and welfare will increase. The study recommends that SAFTA should proceed to establish such a mechanism that enables member countries to recognize the certificates and tests approved by the exporting countries. Further, Port restrictions and the issue of para-tariffs should be discussed in future negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The migration of both unskilled and skilled labour force can alter economic conditions and environmental sustainability of both host and home countries. Consequently, this study endeavors to investigate the impact of skilled labour migration on economic growth, energy demand, and environmental sustainability of both home and host countries. This objective is achieved by constructing a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for developed and developing countries. Moreover, developing countries are classified into four distinct groups based on their income levels such as high income, upper middle income, lower middle‐income and low‐income countries. The outcome of policy simulations indicate that skilled labour migration diminishes the gross domestic product, welfare, energy consumption and carbon emissions in home countries, and the reverse is true for the host countries. The influx of remittances to home counties is shown to bolster their economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, whereas a contrary trend in remittance outflow is observed in host countries. Likewise, reverse migration has the potential to augment economic growth in developing countries alongside an increase in energy demand and CO2 emissions. The study advocates for developed countries to harness the skills of immigrants in environment‐friendly manufacturing industries. Furthermore, it emphasizes that developing countries should utilise remittances for both socio‐economic and environmental development to retain the migration of skilled labour forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To manage transboundary pollution, China has promoted trans-provincial watershed eco-compensation (WEC), which is a market-oriented policy that adjusts ecological and economic interests between upstream and downstream areas and promotes regional green and low-carbon transformation. Hence, a reasonable evaluation of the carbon emission reduction effect of WEC is of great value for achieving green transformation. Using data from Chinese counties between 2003 and 2020, we consider 11 trans-provincial WEC agreements and evaluate their influence on carbon emissions. We find that trans-provincial WEC policies reduce water pollution emissions and significantly lower carbon emission levels. Mechanism tests show that the policy reduces carbon emissions by limiting polluting industrial development and stimulating low-carbon technological innovations. Moreover, this policy improves regional low-carbon economic development, and there are significant heterogeneity effects of the WEC in different regions and compensation modes. This research provides new insights for transitional countries to design green transformation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input–output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is an introduction to a special issue of the Journal of Productivity Analysis focused on African productivity. The special issue was the result of collaboration and planning that began in 2016 and culminated in a virtual conference held in 2021. The conference attracted scholars from 20 different countries who presented papers on topics such as green growth, gender and racial inequalities in academia, trade in services, airline efficiency, age-efficiency nexus in agriculture, and agricultural productivity. The papers in the special issue provide a balanced and broad perspective on these important issues and offer insights for policymakers and practitioners working in these areas. [Extracted from the article]

In Indonesia, the negative health impact of COVID‐19 and the initial, direct loss of employment have been largest in urban, not rural areas. But the second‐round effects on labor markets have been very different. They have included a huge, empirically documented migration of newly unemployed urban workers from urban to rural areas, in urgent search of employment, food, and safety from the pandemic. We call this "de‐urbanization." It placed the migrating workers in economic competition with the least skilled agricultural workers, expanding their numbers by almost 8%. By increasing the supply of unskilled farm labor, de‐urbanization depressed farm workers' real wages. Because the demand for farm labor is inelastic, the total wage income of these workers, aggregated across all unskilled farm laborers, declined. The households relying on this source of income are by far Indonesia's poorest. Similar outcomes may occur in other pandemic‐affected developing countries with large agricultural sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Scientific Journal of Agricultural Sciences (SJAS) is the property of Beni Suef University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using a global dynamic general equilibrium model with foreign direct investment (FDI) and technology capital, this paper finds that the EU–China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) could bring modest but nonnegligible benefits to both sides. Under an illustrative scenario in which the CAI increases the degree of openness to bilateral FDI by 10%, the EU's FDI to China could rise by a factor of 3–4 and China's FDI to the EU by a factor of 3. These would generate a gain in the steady‐state gross national product (GNP) of 0.23% for China and 0.73% for the EU. The cumulative household welfare gain in the present value term is equivalent to 0.36% and 0.13% of GNP annually for China and the EU, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impacts of housing market policies in Korea by developing a dynamic computable general equilibrium model integrating regional housing markets and multiregional mobility. We compare simulation outcomes of demand- and/or supply-side approaches in housing market interventions and address how these various policy instruments affect housing prices, demand, and household welfare. Policy simulation results suggest that supply-based interventions would be more effective than housing tax policies for cooling down overheated housing markets without decreasing consumer welfare. Tax-based demand-side approaches result in a 1.8–2.2% housing price drop and a 1.1–1.2% welfare decline annually between 2021 and 2024. In the supply-side policy, investing in housing construction leads to 3.4–4.1% lower housing prices and 1.5–1.8% enhanced welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The special issue of the Singapore Economic Review focuses on China's economy, examining its challenges and future development. Papers in the issue cover topics such as the impact of COVID-19 on China's economic growth, land revenue policy reform, consumer expenditure patterns on well-being, and intergenerational transfers among aged people. Other papers explore the relationship between the local institutional environment and stock price crash risk, accounting comparability on firm investment efficiency, and the volatility contagion among stock, currency, and bulk shipping markets. Additionally, the issue discusses how environmental regulation affects firms' share of domestic value-added in gross exports in China. The guest editor, Jr-Tsung Huang, expresses gratitude to contributors and reviewers for their support in making the special issue possible. [Extracted from the article]

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will be important policies to constrain China's economic and social development in the future. Based on the theory of computable general equilibrium, CGE model of carbon emission was constructed in this paper to simulate the influence of different scenarios of carbon emission reduction on economic and social development. The major contribution is to subdivide the energy sector according to primary energy and secondary energy, and construct the macro SAM table and micro SAM table of 21 energy sectors in 2017 to quantitatively simulate the impact of carbon emission reduction policies on China's economy and society, and put forward some policy suggestions based on this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a politically and culturally important city cluster, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) has huge electricity and water consumption, while the local power generation capacity and water resources may not be sustainable long term according to the current power generation ratio. We introduced up-to-date strategic policies in China, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (dual carbon goals), to assess their impact on environmental protection and economic development. Thus, we constructed a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to simulate these changes in BTH. We designed four carbon reduction scenarios to explore the impact of policies including carbon taxes, investment, and renewable energy subsidies individually or combined. The findings reveal that implementing these policies together can increase the proportion of renewable energy in power generation to 17.2% (Beijing), 9.4% (Tianjin), and 33.2% (Hebei) by 2060. Under various policy scenarios, the Tax Scenario shows the largest water withdrawal savings, while the Investment Scenario shows the largest GDP growth by 2060. The combined implementation of these policies may minimize the negative impact on the economy while developing an environmentally friendly region. The results of the Combination Scenario are closest to carbon neutrality, narrowing the gap to 10.71%, 9.98%, and 9.85%, respectively. Conservation (water and electricity) and carbon reduction can provide significant support for carbon neutrality and sustainable development strategies. This study contributes to the evaluation of mitigation policies in BTH and provides a concrete policy option to achieve carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a "logistics" model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of "iceberg trade costs", (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints' operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have used theoretical general equilibrium or empirical computable general equilibrium models to analyze the economic and welfare effects of fishery rationalization, adopting a simplistic assumption regarding factor mobility. This study relaxes the simplistic assumption and considers more possibilities of mobility when assessing the effects of rationalization using a computable general equilibrium model for the Gulf of Alaska groundfish trawl fishery. Results demonstrate that the effects of rationalization vary significantly across different factor mobility assumptions, suggesting that the effects computed based on the simplistic assumption could mislead fishery managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a state-of-the-art global general equilibrium model to quantify the effects of an International Carbon Price Floor (ICPF) proposal for the coordination of global climate policy. With the ICPF proposal, countries would implement a carbon price floor that is differentiated according to their level of development. The price floor could be implemented by an actual carbon price or other policies with equivalent stringency. Implementing such a joint effort would be a big step towards aligning global emissions with the Paris Agreement. The study highlights three main findings. First, the ICPF is progressive in terms of emission reductions and demands considerably more effort from high-income countries (HICs). Unlike proposals based on equity principles, however, it requires neither extremely high emission reductions from HICs nor massive financial transfers. Second, the differentiated carbon prices cost only an additional 0.3 percent of global GDP compared to a global uniform carbon price. Third, the ICPF can be as effective as border carbon adjustment (BCA) mechanisms at preserving competitiveness of HICs despite the differentiation in carbon price floors. This means, there would be no need for BCA with an ICPF. Compared to a BCA, HICs can avoid the administrative burden and low-income countries (LICs) will not face the cost of BCA. As a first step to global climate policy, a sectoral ICPF for the EITE sector could be introduced. It would address competitiveness concerns almost as well as the full ICPF. An International Carbon Price Floor (ICPF), with carbon price floors differentiated by development level, would incur only small economic costs compared to baseline economic growth. The ICPF would allow for international burden sharing, with HICs incurring higher cost than middle – and low-income countries. The ICPF reduces distortions to competitiveness as much as BCA, so that no BCA would be necessary. A 'sectoral ICPF' in energy-intensive and trade-exposed sectors would be effective against leakage and loss in competitiveness and would thus be an attractive alternative to border carbon adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recycling carbon tax revenue is a significant part of the design of a nation's carbon tax system. The impact of different recycling principles on the socio-economy and carbon emission reduction varies greatly. Under the background of China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, this paper designed three carbon tax recycling principles based on the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including recycling principles based on output ratio, export ratio, and carbon intensity. A recursively dynamic CGE model was developed in this study to evaluate the economic effects of these three carbon tax recycling principles based on tax neutrality under China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions. Carbon tax recycling measures could mitigate the economic losses caused by carbon tax, and the results could be greatly affected according to different recycling principles. The results showed that: 1 The recycling principle based on output ratio could reduce economic losses and improve households' social welfare. 2 China's carbon intensity in 2030 could be reduced by more than 65% compared with that in 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption could reach 25% using the recycling principle based on carbon intensity, but the economic loss mitigation effect of the recycling measures based on this principle was small. 3 Adopting the recycling principle based on export ratio would narrow the competitive gap between China and foreign countries, and the exports of high-carbon-intensity goods would not increase under this principle. 4 According to principles based on output ratio and export ratio, the NDC goal of non-fossil energy accounting for about 25% of primary energy consumption by 2030 could not be achieved, and only the NDC goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% compared with that of 2005 could be achieved. In brief, as an essential policy tool to achieve China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, the carbon tax should be implemented as soon as possible. At the same time, according to China's national conditions, a targeted choice of carbon tax recycling principle is needed. The role of the carbon tax in the process of achieving the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions should be fully utilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis examines the COVID-19 pandemic's economy-wide global effects, assessing the impact on gross domestic product (GDP) through reduced labor supply and productivity in diverse sectors. Utilizing a Computable General Equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project database, the results highlight the pronounced influence on Light and Heavy manufacturing due to disrupted global supply chains. The vaccination's effectiveness in economic recovery is emphasized, indicating increased labor participation and productivity. The study underscores vaccine disparities among developing nations, affecting global economic resurgence. Overall, it stresses the interconnectedness of COVID-19's impact on national GDP, the manufacturing sectors, and the crucial role of vaccination in driving economic activity and global recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]