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Aim: Chronic directional climate changes in temperature and precipitation are predicted to increase the frequency of extreme climatic events (ECEs); however, their co‐occurring effects on the temporal stability of community productivity (i.e. ANPP stability) are still unclear. Here, we evaluate whether the increased frequency of ECEs reduces ANPP stability, and how it modulates the effects of chronic directional climate factors on ANPP stability in natural grassland. Location: Twenty‐two sites in Asia and 14 sites in North America. Time period: 1980s–2010s. Major taxa studied: Herbaceous plant. Methods: We collected 36 long‐term observational and consecutive ANPP data (at least 10 years) and resampled yearly ANPP via a consecutive resampling method of nested time windows for each field. We used linear mixed‐effect models, partial regression analysis and structure equation models to explore the interactive effects of three climatic factors on ANPP stability and their associated intermediate processes of sensitivity, asymmetry, resistance and resilience. Results: The increased frequency of ECEs was observed within the long‐term rising temperature and elevating precipitation trend across sites in the past several decades. Elevating precipitation rather than rising temperature was the primary driver influencing ANPP stability. Elevating precipitation increased ANPP stability through increasing mean ANPP and decreasing the standard deviation (i.e. SD) of ANPP due to a decrease in sensitivity of ANPP to precipitation. The increased frequency of ECEs decreased ANPP stability mainly by increasing the SD of ANPP, and it reduced the positive effect of elevated precipitation on ANPP stability via a decrease in resilience. Main conclusion: Our results demonstrated that recurrent and discrete ECEs had cumulatively negative effects on ANPP stability, and the decreased resilience was identified as the primary factor reducing the grassland community stability under long‐term climate change. This highlighted the potential risks of increased frequency of ECEs for grassland ecosystem functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change influences species distribution in space and time, but predicting the overlap in the range of interacting species under different climate scenarios remains a challenge. Here, we explore how climate change influences shifts in species ranges among mutualists. Location: Cape Floristic Region (CFR), South Africa. Taxon: Proteaceae and Passeriformes. Methods: We used machine‐learning algorithms (random forest and boosted‐regression trees) and regression model (generalized additive models) to predict range shifts of 11 bird‐pollinated Proteaceae species, combined occurrence prediction of 71 bird‐pollinated Proteaceae and their two most important, endemic, pollinator bird species. We determined the degree of overlap in geographical ranges of nectar‐feeding birds and Proteaceae under different climate scenarios. Species ranges were projected to the years 2050 and 2070 using representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and three global climate models. Results: The majority of Proteaceae species in our model are predicted to experience range contractions, which ranged from 1% under 2050 RCP 4.5 CCSM4 to 79% under 2070 RCP 8.5 CNRM‐CM5 climate scenarios, leading to 55% and 62% range loss for Cape sugarbird and orange‐breasted sunbird, respectively, under extreme climate scenarios. Proteaceae species are predicted to experience least overlap with nectar‐feeding birds in the northern and eastern range under future climate scenarios. Main Conclusion: Climate change threatens species occupying the mountain range of the northern limit and other regions of the CFR. Reduced range overlap of mutualists may have significant implications for the reproduction and persistence of Proteaceae. We suggest active monitoring of Proteaceae populations in regions where species are predicted to lose their range, particularly so for threatened species with small ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the abundant evidence of impairments to plant performance and survival under hotter‐drought conditions, little is known about the vulnerability of reproductive organs to climate extremes. Here, by conducting a comparative analysis between flowers and leaves, we investigated how variations in key morphophysiological traits related to carbon and water economics can explain the differential vulnerabilities to heat and drought among these functionally diverse organs. Due to their lower construction costs, despite having a higher water storage capacity, flowers were more prone to turgor loss (higher turgor loss point; ΨTLP) than leaves, thus evidencing a trade‐off between carbon investment and drought tolerance in reproductive organs. Importantly, the higher ΨTLP of flowers also resulted in narrow turgor safety margins (TSM). Moreover, compared to leaves, the cuticle of flowers had an overall higher thermal vulnerability, which also resulted in low leakage safety margins (LSM). As a result, the combination of low TSMs and LSMs may have negative impacts on reproduction success since they strongly influenced the time to turgor loss under simulated hotter‐drought conditions. Overall, our results improve the knowledge of unexplored aspects of flower structure and function and highlight likely threats to successful plant reproduction in a warmer and drier world. Summary statement: By conducting a comparative morphophysiological analysis between flowers and leaves, we showed that, due to their lower construction costs, flowers were more vulnerable to hotter‐drought events than leaves, thus evidencing possible threats to successful plant reproduction in a warmer and drier world [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India is dependent on rainfall for agriculture, food security and economic advancements. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall is well reported, as well as the recent upsurge of extremes due to climate change. In Maharashtra, rainfall intensity varies widely from very high (coasts) to low (west-interior). Extreme value analysis (EVA) of heavy annual rainfall for the various districts of Maharashtra was conducted to ascertain the following for each district: suitable extreme value distribution; extreme (high) annual rainfall; efficacy of gap-filling for missing annual record/s. The suitability of various statistical distributions for representing high annual rainfall values was evaluated using Anderson–Darling test (quantitative), quantile and probability plots (qualitative). The gap-filling exercise resulted in minor variations (<10%) in the estimated extremes, positive as well as negative, for different cases. Therefore, the results of EVA on the actual records are advocated. The suitable distributions for 35 districts are presented in maps and Frechet distribution was adjudged suitable for almost 60% of districts. The estimated extremes for all districts are listed for different return periods for ready reference. These values would be useful for the planning and construction of hydraulic structures, water resources and reservoir management, design and planning of irrigation. Research highlights: Suitable probability distribution functions for modelling the extremes of annual rainfall in each district of Maharashtra have been identified and the parameters have been provided. Extreme values of annual rainfall for each district in Maharashtra for selected return periods have been presented. Evaluation was performed on whether the gaps in the annual rainfall records would affect EVA of the annual rainfall in the districts of Maharashtra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Climate change and global warming have effects on every ecosystem and have caused huge losses in global biodiversity. This study identified that currently, the study area explored in this work provides a good quantity (around 35%) of suitable habitat for the Demoiselle Crane. The most influential factors determining Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density as significant contributors. Under changing climate scenarios, the study predicted a major loss of species current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and movement towards western–central areas along the Pakistan–Afghanistan boarder. The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km2) and highly suitable (27,911 km2) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western–central areas along the Pakistan–Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite efforts to mitigate climate change, annual greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, which may lead to the global warming of our planet. Buildings' thermal energy needs are inherently linked to climate conditions. Consequently, it is crucial to evaluate how climate change affects these energy demands. Despite extensive analysis, a comprehensive assessment involving a diverse range of building types has not been consistently conducted. The primary objective of this research is to perform a coherent evaluation of the influence of climate changes, construction element properties, and the Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system type of control on the energy requirements of six buildings (residential, services, and commercial). The buildings are considered to be located in a temperate Mediterranean climate. Our focus is on the year 2070, considering three distinct climatic scenarios: (i) maintaining the current climate without further changes, (ii) moderate climate changes, and (iii) extreme climate changes. The buildings are distributed across three different locations, each characterized by unique climatic conditions. Buildings' envelope features a traditional External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) and expanded polystyrene (EPS) serves as thermal insulation material. Two critical design factors are explored: EPS thickness ranging from 0 (no insulation) to 12 cm; and horizontal external fixed shading elements varying lengths from 0 (absence) to 150 cm. Six alternative setpoint ranges are assessed for the HVAC system control: three based on the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and three based on indoor air temperature (Tair). Results were obtained with a validated in-home software tool. They show that, even under extreme climate conditions, the application of thermal insulation remains energetically favorable; however, its relative importance diminishes as climate severity increases. Then, proper insulation design remains important for energy efficiency. The use of external shading elements for glazing (e.g., overhangs, louvers) proves beneficial in specific cases. As climate changes intensify, the significance of shading elements grows. Thus, strategic placement and design are necessary for good results. The HVAC system's energy consumption depends on the level of thermal comfort requirements, on the climate characteristics, and on the building's type of use. As climate change severity intensifies, energy demands for cooling increase, whereas energy needs for heating decrease. However, it is essential to recognize that the impact of climate changes on HVAC system energy consumption significantly depends on the type of building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and mitigating the effects of anthropogenic climate change on species distributions requires the ability to track range shifts over time. This is particularly true for species occupying high-latitude regions, which are experiencing more extreme climate change than the rest of the world. In North America, the geographic ranges of many mammals reach their northernmost extent in Alaska, positioning this region at the leading edge of climate-induced distribution change. Over a decade has elapsed since the publication of the last spatial assessments of terrestrial mammals in the state. We compared public occurrence records against commonly referenced range maps to evaluate potential extralimital records and develop repeatable baseline range maps. We compared occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility for 61 terrestrial mammal species native to mainland Alaska against a variety of range estimates (International Union for Conservation of Nature, Alaska Gap Analysis Project, and the published literature). We mapped extralimital records and calculated proportions of occurrences encompassed by range extents, measured mean direction and distance to prior range margins, evaluated predictive accuracy of published species models, and highlighted observations on federal lands in Alaska. Range comparisons identified 6,848 extralimital records for 39 of 61 (63.9%) terrestrial mainland Alaskan species. On average, 95.5% of Alaska Gap Analysis Project occurrence records and ranges were deemed accurate (i.e., > 90.0% correct) for 31 of 37 species, but overestimated extents for 13 species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature range maps encompassed 68.1% of occurrence records and were > 90% accurate for 17 of 39 species. Extralimital records represent either improved sampling and digitization or actual geographic range expansions. Here we provide new data-driven range maps, update standards for the archiving of museum-quality locational records and offer recommendations for mapping range changes for monitoring and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) impact the health and productivity of forests. Here, we explored the potential impacts of these environmental stressors on ecosystem services provided by future forests in the contiguous U.S. We found that all stand-level services benefitted (+ 2.6 to 8.1%) from reductions in N+S deposition, largely attributable to positive responses to reduced S that offset the net negative effects of lower N levels. Sawtimber responded positively (+ 0.5 to 0.6%) to some climate change, but negatively (− 2.4 to − 3.8%) to the most extreme scenarios. Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration and forest diversity were negatively impacted by all modelled changes in climate. Notably, the most extreme climate scenario eliminated gains in all three services achieved through reduced deposition. As individual tree species responded differently to climate change and atmospheric deposition, associated services unique to each species increased or decreased under future scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change should be considered when evaluating the benefits of N and S air pollution policies on the services provided by U.S. forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)—an important riparian predator guild—in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population trends are lacking for most threatened species, especially those that are cryptic and difficult to survey. Recent developments in passive acoustics and semi‐automated call recognition provide a cost‐effective option to systematically monitor populations of vocal species. We assessed recent trends for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus, an iconic marsupial, based on 7 years of acoustic monitoring across 224 forested sites. The study period overlapped with a severe drought and extensive megafires in 2019 followed by 2 years of extremely high rainfall. Dynamic occupancy modelling with a range of covariates at multiple landscape scales found that initial occupancy was related to elevation (−ve), NDVI (+ve) and previous selective harvesting (16–30‐year age class; weakly +ve). Extinction probability increased with the extent of high‐severity fire. Colonisation probability was related to a range of factors, with the top model showing a decrease with increasing lagged annual rainfall. However, the null model was also supported, suggesting weak associations for colonisation. Using these relationships, koala occupancy was found to be high and stable over the study period. Fire did not influence regional trends because koalas often persisted with low‐ to moderate‐severity fire and because high‐severity fire was limited to 11% of their habitat. In contrast, bellow rate varied across years, being initially low and declining immediately after the 2019 fires, with the driver of these changes unclear. Neither timber harvesting nor low‐severity fire influenced koala occupancy or bellow rate. Given the extensive area of koala habitat in the region, our results point to the presence of a large population in these public forests, and in recent years, stable occupancy (albeit with site‐scale reductions in density with high‐severity fire). Ongoing monitoring is crucial for tracking future changes, especially with predictions of more frequent, severe forest fires due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unveiling spatial variation in vegetation resilience to climate extremes can inform effective conservation planning under climate change. Although many conservation efforts are implemented on landscape scales, they often remain blind to landscape variation in vegetation resilience. We explored the distribution of drought‐resilient vegetation (i.e., vegetation that could withstand and quickly recover from drought) and its predictors across a heterogeneous coastal landscape under long‐term wetland conversion, through a series of high‐resolution satellite image interpretations, spatial analyses, and nonlinear modelling. We found that vegetation varied greatly in drought resilience across the coastal wetland landscape and that drought‐resilient vegetation could be predicted with distances to coastline and tidal channel. Specifically, drought‐resilient vegetation exhibited a nearly bimodal distribution and had a seaward optimum at ~2 km from coastline (corresponding to an inundation frequency of ~30%), a pattern particularly pronounced in areas further away from tidal channels. Furthermore, we found that areas with drought‐resilient vegetation were more likely to be eliminated by wetland conversion. Even in protected areas where wetland conversion was slowed, drought‐resilient vegetation was increasingly lost to wetland conversion at its landward optimum in combination with rapid plant invasions at its seaward optimum. Our study highlights that the distribution of drought‐resilient vegetation can be predicted using landscape features but without incorporating this predictive understanding, conservation efforts may risk failing in the face of climate extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identified the practices of adaptation strategies to climate change in Jimma, Bedelle, Bonga, and Sokorru urban centers using a survey of 384 households, 55 key informant interviews, 4 focus group discussions, and field observations. A cross-sectional study design was employed from 2019 to 2021. The adaptive capacity of municipalities to reduce climate extreme events was rated as poor by the majority (51%), mostly reactive measures (76%). The climate hazards identified in four urban centers were riverine and flash floods, urban heat waves, landslides, and windstorms. The urban households practiced lifestyle modification, reduce paved surfaces, the use of air conditioner, planting trees, and multiple windows. The adaptation strategies practiced by municipalities include the relocation of prone areas, the support of basic amenities, the construction of protection walls, diversion ditches, the clearance of waterways and rivers, greenery, and park development. The adaptation actions were constrained by a lack of awareness, commitment, cooperation and coordination, adaptive capacity, and participation. Gray/physical infrastructures (costly but important) as adaptation actions were hampered by the low municipal capacity. We recommend that urban authorities should incorporate climate change adaptation strategies into urban planning and development proactively to ensure future resilient climate smart urban centers of southwest Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to reveal the long-term station-based characteristics of precipitation in Istanbul, a mega city located on the continents of Europe and Asia, with complex topography and coastline along the Marmara and Black Seas. Using data from five different stations, three located in the European continent and two in the Asian continent, with measurement periods ranging from 72 to 93 years, wet and dry days have been identified, statistics on precipitation conditions during the warm and cold seasons have been generated, categorization based on precipitation intensities has been performed, and analyses have been conducted using extreme precipitation indices. At stations located in the northern part of the city, higher annual total precipitation has been observed compared to those in the south. A similar situation applies to the number of wet days. While during the cold season, the wet and dry day counts are nearly the same across all stations, this condition exhibits significant differences in favor of dry days during the warm season. Apart from dry conditions, "moderate" precipitation is the most frequently observed type across all stations. However, "extreme" events occur significantly more often (6%) during the warm season compared to the cold season (2%). Long-term anomalies in terms of annual precipitation totals have shown similarity between stations in the north and south, which has also been observed in longitudinally close stations. Despite the longer duration of the cold season and stronger temperature gradients, extreme rainfall events are more frequent during the warm season, primarily due to thunderstorm activity. While trend analyses revealed limited significant trends in precipitation intensity categories and extreme indices, the study highlights the importance of comprehensive examination of extreme rainfall events on both station-based and regional levels, shedding light on potential implications for regional climate change. Lastly, during the cold season, the inter-station correlation in terms of annual total precipitation amounts has been considerably higher compared to the warm season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, contributing to climate change effects and with far-reaching implications for built environments. The main aim of this study is to assess the extent to which Annaba city, Algeria, as part of the Mediterranean region, is affected by global climate change and its broader influences. The study investigated climatic shifts in Annaba city, using a multi-step methodology integrating data collection and analysis techniques. Data collection included 23 years of climate data (2000–2023) from Annaba's meteorological station, on-site measurements of microclimatic variations, and a questionnaire survey. The collected data underwent four main analyses: a time series analysis to describe climate parameters over 23 years, a statistical analysis to predict potential future climatic conditions (2024–2029) and the correlation of various climatic variables using specialized bioclimate tools to highlight seasonal variability, a spatial study of the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon and perceived climatic shifts, and an analysis of extreme weather events characterizing heat atmospheric events in the context of urban climate change in the Mediterranean region. The findings revealed a consistent warming trend in Annaba city, with prolonged extreme climate conditions observed, particularly in the last four years (2020–2023). Significant temperature fluctuations were emphasized, notably in July 2023, with record-breaking maximum temperatures reaching 48.2 °C, the hottest on record with an increase of 3.8 °C, and presenting challenges amplified by the urban heat island effect, causing temperature differentials of up to 6 °C within built-up areas. Projections for 2029 suggest a tendency towards heightened aridity with a significant shift towards a new climate seasonality featuring two distinct main seasons—moderate and hot challenging. The abrupt disruption of calm weather conditions in Annaba on 24 July 2023 highlighted the influence of atmospheric circulation within the Mediterranean region featured for both anticyclones and atmospheric blocking phenomena on local weather patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildlife species confront threats from climate and land use change, exacerbating the influence of extreme climatic events on populations and biodiversity. Migratory waterbirds are especially vulnerable to hydrological drought via reduced availability of surface water habitats. We assessed how whooping cranes (Grus americana) modified habitat use and migration strategies during drought to evaluate their resilience to changing conditions and adaptive capacity. We categorized >8000 night‐roost sites used by 146 cranes from 2010 to 2022 and examined relative use during non‐drought, moderate drought, and extreme drought conditions. We found cultivated and uncultivated palustrine and lacustrine wetlands were generally used less during droughts than non‐drought conditions. Conversely, impounded palustrine and lacustrine systems and rivers served more frequently as drought refugia (i.e., used more during drought than non‐drought conditions). Night roosts occurred primarily on private lands (86% overall); public land use decreased with latitude and increased with drought severity, with greatest use (56%) occurring during severe autumn drought in the southern Great Plains. Quantifying use of identified critical habitats in the United States indicated that Cheyenne Bottoms State Waterfowl Management Area and Quivira National Wildlife Refuge were used less during drought, and the Central Platte River and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge received similar use during drought compared to non‐drought conditions. Our findings provide insights into compensatory use of habitats, where impounded surface water may function in a complementary fashion with natural wetlands. Collectively, these and other types of wetlands distributed across the migration corridor provided a reliable network of habitat available across the Great Plains. A diversity of wetlands available during variable environmental conditions would be useful in supporting continued recovery of whooping cranes and likely have benefits for a wide array of migratory birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the summer of 2022, Pakistan experienced a severe flood event that brought great destruction to the local people and ecosystem. However, there is no comprehensive study on the process, spread and causes of this flood. Therefore, we combined multiple satellite gravity data, meteorological data, hydrological data, and satellite remote sensing data to conduct a thorough investigation and study of this flood. The results show that a 20-year time series of the terrestrial water storage change based multiple gravity data has the high accuracy and reliability, which is used for detecting the flood. The flood propagated through meteorological system (three months), agricultural system (six months) and terrestrial ecosystems (five months), respectively, and the two southern provinces (Balochistan and Sindh) are the most affected by the flood, whose flood severity is 6.955 and 9.557, respectively. The center of the severe flood is located at the border region between the above two province. The severe flood is attributed primarily to the global extreme climate events (La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events) that altered the transport path of water vapor in the Indian Ocean, causing large amounts of water vapor to converge over Pakistan, resulting in heavy precipitation, and secondarily to the melting of extensive glacier in the mountainous of northern Pakistan as a result of the high temperature in March-May 2022. The above results contribute to the understanding of the mechanism of the impact of extreme climate events on the regional climate, and provide some references for the study of severe floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhancing tree diversity may be important to fostering resilience to drought‐related climate extremes. So far, little attention has been given to whether tree diversity can increase the survival of trees and reduce its variability in young forest plantations.We conducted an analysis of seedling and sapling survival from 34 globally distributed tree diversity experiments (363,167 trees, 168 species, 3744 plots, 7 biomes) to answer two questions: (1) Do drought and tree diversity alter the mean and variability in plot‐level tree survival, with higher and less variable survival as diversity increases? and (2) Do species that survive poorly in monocultures survive better in mixtures and do specific functional traits explain monoculture survival?Tree species richness reduced variability in plot‐level survival, while functional diversity (Rao's Q entropy) increased survival and also reduced its variability. Importantly, the reduction in survival variability became stronger as drought severity increased. We found that species with low survival in monocultures survived comparatively better in mixtures when under drought. Species survival in monoculture was positively associated with drought resistance (indicated by hydraulic traits such as turgor loss point), plant height and conservative resource‐acquisition traits (e.g. low leaf nitrogen concentration and small leaf size).Synthesis. The findings highlight: (1) The effectiveness of tree diversity for decreasing the variability in seedling and sapling survival under drought; and (2) the importance of drought resistance and associated traits to explain altered tree species survival in response to tree diversity and drought. From an ecological perspective, we recommend mixing be considered to stabilize tree survival, particularly when functionally diverse forests with drought‐resistant species also promote high survival of drought‐sensitive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How biodiversity underpins ecosystem resistance (i.e. ability to withstand environmental perturbations) and recovery (i.e. ability to return to a pre‐perturbation state), and thus, stability under extreme climatic events is a timely question in ecology. To date, most studies have focussed on the role of taxonomic diversity, neglecting how community functional composition and diversity beget stability under exceptional climatic conditions. In addition, land use potentially modulates how biodiversity and ecosystem functions respond to extreme climatic conditions.Using an 11‐year time‐series of plant biomass from 150 permanent grassland plots spanning a gradient of land‐use intensity, we examined how taxonomic and functional components of biodiversity affected resistance and recovery of biomass under extreme drought.The association between biodiversity, land use and biomass varied across years, especially in the driest years. Species‐rich or functionally diverse communities (associated with low land‐use intensity) buffered extreme droughts better, while species‐poor communities or those dominated by fast‐growing species (associated with high land‐use intensity) had higher recovery capabilities after a moderate‐to‐extreme drought.Synthesis. Our results show that plant community functional and taxonomic components determine grasslands resistance and recovery under moderate‐to‐extreme drought. In turn, this points to the importance of designing landscapes with both extensively and intensively managed grasslands. Functionally or taxonomically rich communities (favoured under low land‐use intensity) would preserve biomass under extreme droughts, whereas species‐poor or fast‐growing communities (favoured by high land‐use intensity) would restore biomass after extreme droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Semi-arid farming systems in India are facing an increasing frequency of climate change-induced extreme weather events. With the aim of improving their climate resilience, we retrospectively assess climate resilience in two case studies in Maharashtra, India. We considered a 15-year period and multiple interventions in both. The systems showed improved climate resilience when agricultural productivity-enhancing interventions were combined with those related to water management, soil health, livelihood diversification, and food and nutrition security. Further, we recommend embedding a monitoring, evaluation and learning component within the design of all interventions to help with adaptive decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant research focus is placed on identifying animal species and areas at future risk to human‐induced alterations of the environment and long‐term changes in climatic conditions. Yet, the extent to which exposure to extreme climatic events and intense human pressure can increase the risk of harmful impacts on species remains poorly investigated. Focusing on terrestrial mammals in China, one of the world's megadiverse countries, we investigated patterns of contemporary exposure to floods and human pressures and determined their taxonomic representation and distribution across three major area‐based conservation schemes, namely, national nature reserves (NNRs), priority areas for biodiversity conservation (PABCs), and key biodiversity areas (KBAs). Among the 440 species assessed with moderate or high exposure to floods, 327 (∼75%) also qualified as moderate or high in exposure to intense human pressure. These species mainly belong to the orders Chiroptera, Eulipotyphla, and Rodentia. Likewise, there were 305, 311, and 311 species with moderate or high exposure to flood and intense human pressure represented across NNRs, PABCs, and KBAs, respectively. Our findings support the prioritization of KBAs for expansion of site‐based protection efforts such as NNRs in China, considering threats to species from exposure to adverse effects from both extreme climate and human pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses critical gaps by evaluating willingness to pay (WTP) in Canada, the factors influencing it, and its application in averting future power outages stemming from extreme weather events. A comprehensive survey was conducted, polling 403 Ottawa residents regarding their experiences, impacts, and WTP concerning the May 2022 derecho weather and consequent power disruptions. The findings reveal a notable disparity in WTP between individuals enduring extended power outages (exceeding 4 days) and increased experienced costs. Results from a linear regression analysis show that upgrades for increased home resilience to power outages cost $590–$990/m2 more than a homeowner would be willing to pay. These results offer valuable insights for various stakeholders, aiding in projecting WTP and discerning investment thresholds for cost-effective and attainable resilience solutions, thereby facilitating the resilience enhancement process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent paleoclimatic research has revealed that volcanic events around 536–540 AD caused severe, short-term global cooling. For this same period, archeological research from various regions evidences significant cultural transformation. However, there is still a lack of understanding of how human societies responded and adapted to extreme climate variability and new circumstances. This study focuses on the effects of the 536/540 AD volcanic event in four Scandinavian regions by exploring the shift in demographic and land use intensity before, during, and after this abrupt climate cooling. To achieve this, we performed climate simulations with and without volcanic eruptions using a dynamically downscaled climate model (iLOVECLIM) at a high resolution (0.25° or ~25 km). We integrated the findings with a comprehensive collection of radiocarbon dates from excavated archeological sites across various Scandinavian regions. Our Earth System Model simulates pronounced cooling (maximum ensemble mean −1.1°C), an abrupt reduction in precipitation, and a particularly acute drop in growing degree days (GDD0) after the volcanic event, which can be used to infer likely impacts on agricultural productivity. When compared to the archeological record, we see considerable regional diversity in the societal response to this sudden environmental event. As a result, this study provides a more comprehensive insight into the demographic chronology of Scandinavia and a deeper understanding of the land-use practices its societies depended on during the 536/540 AD event. Our results suggest that this abrupt climate anomaly amplified a social change already in progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground‐coupled heat exchangers (GCHE) have received significant attention over several decades as a result of increasing the world's energy demand and the need for reducing fossil fuels consumption. Prior studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of utilizing GCHE with refrigeration and heating systems. However, optimizing the performance of GCHE coupled with chillers for heat rejection, especially in extreme hot‐humid climates (where cooling towers are not very effective) is lacking in the literature. In this work, a ground borehole fitted with a coaxial‐tubes heat exchanger (BHE) is numerically simulated. Based on a wide range of data collected for the soil of Dubai, its real in situ thermophysical properties are characterized. The soil's upper layer thickness is relatively small and dry that operates in conduction mode, while the lower one is water‐saturated that works in coupled conduction‐advection mode. The study aims at optimizing the parameters advancing heat rejection into ground considering the actual properties of the soil of Dubai. The results indicate that the more feasible high‐density polyethylene pipes can perform as good as the steel ones. Also, a great finding based on the presented novel design is that insulating the inner pipe can increase the temperature duty by 55%. The proposed design of BHE is relatively inexpensive, more feasible and efficient, which is achieved for the first time based on a deep analysis of Dubai climate and soil. This makes the technology ready to be implemented for industrial applications in Dubai and other regions having a similar climate and soil nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is increasing concern regarding the impact of compound agroclimatic extreme events on crop yield, particularly in the context of projected increases in their frequency and intensity due to climate change. While previous studies have generally focused on compound hot and dry events in maize and wheat using growing-season relative thresholds, the time-variant physiological sensitivity of crops to climate extremes has not been sufficiently considered. We determined the spatiotemporal variations of compound climate extremes (CEs) for single- and late-rice in southern China during 1980–2014 and their underlying drivers using growth-stage specific physiological thresholds. Specifically, we carefully distinguished between concurrent compound events (CCEs) and consecutive compound events (CSEs). Our results indicated an increasing trend of compound hot-dry events for single-rice, but a decreasing trend of compound chilling-rainy events for late-rice. Spatially, the hotspots of compound hot-dry events for single-rice shifted from the lower Yangtze River Basin to its upper stream, and were dominated by the spatial differences in phenology rather than the occurrence of extreme events. The hotspots of compound chilling-rainy events for late-rice remained concentrated near the northwest edges of late-rice growing areas, indicating the limitation of thermal conditions. The occurrence and duration of CCEs was closely related to local temperature-moisture coupling (negative correlation). A path analysis suggested that temperature was the dominant factor influencing the changes in compound hot-dry events for single-rice. For the changes in compound chilling-rainy events for late-rice, the effect of temperature was only slightly larger than that of moisture. Our study has improved the understanding of compound climate extremes in China's rice production system, and the results provide important information for risk management and adaptation strategies under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change, with warming as its main feature, has altered the spatial-temporal evolution of factors such as precipitation and temperature that can cause meteorological disasters. The complex and changeable climate has led to frequent natural disasters, while the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have also significantly increased, posing an enormous threat to societal production and human life. As the most important geoecological transitional zone of mainland China, the stability of agricultural production in China's north–south transitional zone is crucial for ensuring food security under climate change. With the use of daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data from 1961 to 2018, this study focused on analysing disturbances such as extreme precipitation and drought disasters at different time scales during the winter wheat and summer maize growing seasons in the north–south transitional zone of China from an agricultural production perspective and attempted to answer the following questions: first, from an agricultural production perspective, what are the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of extreme precipitation and arid climate events in the north–south transitional zone? Second, which areas are at high risk of being disturbed by different types of meteorological disasters and require increased attention? The results indicated that (1) in terms of the overall temporal variation, the degree of extreme precipitation and drought stress faced by agricultural production in the region is decreasing. However, the temporal variation at each station in the north–south transitional zone was not completely consistent with the overall trend, and both increasing and decreasing trends were observed. The sites exhibiting an increase overlapped with typical regions of the north–south transitional zone to varying degrees, indicating that the typical regions represented not only theoretical potential risk areas under climate change but also suffered from meteorological disaster disturbances. (2) The precipitation distribution during the winter wheat growth period in the south–north transitional zone was uneven and varied significantly. High values of extreme precipitation indices during the winter wheat growth period were mainly concentrated in the southern part of the eastern section of the north‒south transitional zone. The precipitation distribution during the summer maize growth period significantly differed, with the highest amount of heavy rain and largest number of rainstorm days concentrated in the southeastern part of the north‒south transitional zone. The spatial distribution of the drought frequency in the north–south transitional zone, as indicated by the monthly standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI1), showed that the areas with high total drought frequencies were mainly concentrated in northeast Jiangsu, southeast Henan, and north Anhui, which primarily experienced light drought. The central part of Jiangsu Province exhibited a high frequency of moderate drought, while southern Jiangsu Province and southwestern Shaanxi Province were prone to severe drought. Additionally, southeastern Hebei and eastern Henan were identified as areas with a high frequency of extreme drought. Finally, the central region of Sichuan Province was characterized by both severe and extreme drought conditions. Based on the SPEI12-derived spatial distribution of the drought frequency in the north–south transitional zone, the areas with a high total drought frequency were mainly concentrated in central and eastern Henan, southeast Shaanxi, southeast Shandong, and central Sichuan, which primarily experienced light to moderate drought. The northwestern part of Jiangsu, the southern part of Hebei, and the western part of Shandong are regions with a high frequency of severe drought, while the eastern part of Henan is an area with high frequencies of both severe and extreme drought. (3) High-value areas of extreme precipitation and drought disturbance in the north–south transitional zone overlapped with the edge of the transitional zone to varying degrees. Approximately 63.58% of the north‒south transitional zone of China was characterized by moderate or high stress levels, primarily concentrated along the southern boundary and central core area, and nearly 39.5% of all counties experienced two or more types of disaster stresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rare compound hot and drought (CHD) event occurred in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in the summer of 2022, which brought serious social crisis and ecological disaster. The analysis of the causes, spatiotemporal characteristics and impacts of this event is of great significance and value for future drought warning and mitigation. We used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data, meteorological data, hydrological data and satellite remote sensing data to discuss the spatiotemporal evolution, formation mechanism and the influence of the CHD event. The results show that the drought severity caused by the CHD event was the most severe during 2003 and 2022. The CHD event lasted a total of five months (from July to November), and there were variations in the damage in different sub-basins. The Wu River Basin (WRB) is the region where the CHD event lasted the longest, at six months (from July to December), while it also lasted four or five months in all the other basins. Among them, the WRB, Dongting Lake Rivers Basin (DLRB) and Mainstream of the YRB (MSY) are the three most affected basins, whose hot and drought severity values are 7.750 and −8.520 (WRB), 7.105 and −9.915 (DLRB) and 6.232 and −9.143 (MSY), respectively. High temperature and low precipitation are the direct causes of the CHD event, and the underlying causes behind this event are the triple La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole event. The two extreme climate events made the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) unusually strong, and then the WPSH covered a more northerly and westerly region than in previous years and remained entrenched for a long period of time over the YRB and its adjacent regions. Moreover, this CHD event had a devastating impact on local agricultural production and seriously disrupted daily life and production. Our results have implications for the study of extreme disaster events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the variability of coastal extreme sea levels globally by utilizing nearly three decades of along-track, multi-mission satellite altimetry data. An altimetry-based global coastal database of the non-tidal residual sea level component has been produced. The climate variability of extremes is modeled through a parametric, non-stationary statistical model. This model captures intra-annual, inter-annual and long-term variations in non-tidal residual return levels. Comparisons with tide gauge data demonstrate the ability of altimetry data to capture the variability of coastal extreme sea levels. Our findings reveal a greater complexity in the monthly variability patterns of non-tidal residual extremes in tropical latitudes, often exhibiting multiple storm periods, contrasting with coasts in extratropical latitudes, which are mostly controlled by a winter–summer pattern. This study also highlights the significant influence of established climate circulation patterns on sea level extremes. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation pattern leads to increases of over 25% in non-tidal residual return levels in Northwestern Europe with respect to a neutral phase. Furthermore, return levels in the western coast of Central America could be 50% higher during El Niño compared to La Niña. Our results show a robust increasing trend in non-tidal residual return levels along most global coastlines. A comparative analysis shows that variations during the 1995–2020 period were primarily driven by intra-annual variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the railway sector, rolling stock and infrastructure must be maintained in perfect condition to ensure reliable and safe operation for passengers. Climate change is affecting the urban and regional infrastructure through sea level rise, water accumulations, river flooding, and other increased-frequency extreme natural situations (heavy rains or snows) which pose a challenge to maintenance. In this paper, the use of artificial intelligence based on predictive maintenance implementation is proposed for the early detection of degraded conditions of a bridge due to extreme climatic conditions. For this prediction, continuous monitoring is proposed, with the aim of establishing alarm thresholds to detect dangerous situations, so restrictions could be determined to mitigate the risk. However, one of the main challenges for railway infrastructure managers nowadays is the high cost of monitoring large infrastructures. In this work, a methodology for monitoring railway infrastructures to define the optimal number of transductors that are economically viable and the thresholds according to which infrastructure managers can make decisions concerning traffic safety is proposed. The methodology consists of three phases that use the application of machine learning (Random Forest) and artificial cognitive systems (LSTM recurrent neural networks). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The national-scale British Groundwater Model (BGWM) is implemented to simulate groundwater dynamics and budgets in Great Britain. Notwithstanding the challenges of integrating a very large amount of data, finding a trade-off between computational efficiency and realism, performing automatic calibration, and addressing multiple sources of structural and parameter uncertainty, a quantitative–qualitive evaluation approach showed that the BGWM provides a reasonably accurate digital representation of groundwater systems and processes at a national scale. In this work, the model was applied to understand the variability of budget components across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Comparisons showed regional differences linked to lithological and climatic factors, which in turn can be associated with more or less groundwater resilience to extreme climatic events. There is confidence that the current and future versions of the BGWM can become valuable tools for effective water resources management and adaptation strategies under future climatic and population changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Global climate change is a growing threat to the lives and ranges of reptile species. The present study examines three lizard species (Calotes versicolor, Ateuchosaurus chinensis, and Hemidactylus bowringii) that share a sympatric distribution in the Guangzhou region of Guangdong, China. Mitochondria act as energy-producing centers, and the present study analyses the effects of low temperatures in the context of warm winters on lizards, by examining their responses to low-temperature stress at the level of mitochondrial gene expression. This present study analyses the effects of low temperatures in the context of warm winters on the mitochondrial gene expression of lizards and reveals the implications of the distribution within it. Ecological factors related to climate extremes have a significant influence on the adaptability of organisms, especially for ectotherms such as reptiles that are sensitive to temperature change. Climate extremes can seriously affect the survival and internal physiology of lizards, sometimes even resulting in the loss of local populations or even complete extinction. Indeed, studies have shown that the expression levels of the nuclear genes and mitochondrial genomes of reptiles change under low-temperature stress. At present, the temperature adaptability of reptiles has rarely been studied at the mitochondrial genome level. In the present study, the mitochondrial genomes of three species of lizards, Calotes versicolor, Ateuchosaurus chinensis, and Hemidactylus bowringii, which live in regions of sympatry, were sequenced. We used RT-qPCR to explore the level of mitochondrial gene expression under low-temperature stress, as compared to a control temperature. Among the 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), the steady-state transcript levels of ND4L, ND1, ATP6, and COII were reduced to levels of 0.61 ± 0.06, 0.50 ± 0.08, 0.44 ± 0.16, and 0.41 ± 0.09 in C. versicolor, respectively, compared with controls. The transcript levels of the ND3 and ND6 genes fell to levels of just 0.72 ± 0.05 and 0.67 ± 0.05 in H. bowringii, compared with controls. However, the transcript levels of ND3, ND5, ND6, ATP6, ATP8, Cytb, and COIII genes increased to 1.97 ± 0.15, 2.94 ± 0.43, 1.66 ± 0.07, 1.59 ± 0.17, 1.46 ± 0.04, 1.70 ± 0.16, and 1.83 ± 0.07 in A. chinensis. Therefore, the differences in mitochondrial gene expression may be internally related to the adaptative strategy of the three species under low-temperature stress, indicating that low-temperature environments have a greater impact on A. chinensis, with a small distribution area. In extreme environments, the regulatory trend of mitochondrial gene expression in reptiles is associated with their ability to adapt to extreme climates, which means differential mitochondrial genome expression can be used to explore the response of different lizards in the same region to low temperatures. Our experiment aims to provide one new research method to evaluate the potential extinction of reptile species in warm winter climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our research occurred in the Andean region, one of the eight global centers of domestication of plant species grown for agriculture. The shores of Lake Titicaca (located between Peru and Bolivia), at 3800 meters above sea level, are recognized as the center of origin of quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.). In this region, complex societies have emerged, thanks to the development of water and soil management technologies. They have managed to overcome high mountain territories' extreme and variable climatic conditions. These societies have traditionally protected and preserved quinoa as food for present and future generations through their long-standing knowledge and cultivation practices. The fieldwork occurred in the context of Andean family farming, and our study analyzes nature-society dynamics with a chorematic approach and interviews with local communities. The interest of this work is the transformation of the landscape at the scale of the mountain agroecosystem to understand better the impacts of rural development policies. Chorematic modeling was applied to two periods, before and after 1970, a pivotal year in Peru for agriculture, to show how socio-spatial dynamics in the Andean environment are changing, particularly concerning the evolution of quinoa cultivation. The results show that wild quinoa relatives' distribution is strongly linked to the socio-spatial organization of the agroecosystem. Different species of wild quinoa relatives are maintained by villagers for their multiple foods, medicinal and cultural uses in natural areas, grazed areas, on edge, and also within cultivated fields. However, this management is changing under the pressure of global issues related to the international quinoa market, whose requirements imply reducing the presence of wild relatives in cultivated fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strengthened by polar amplification, Arctic warming provides direct evidence for global climate change. This analysis shows how Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) extremes have changed throughout time. Using ERA5, we demonstrate a pan-Arctic (>60°N) significant upward SAT trend of +0.62°C decade−1 since 1979. Due to this warming, the warmest days of each month in the 1980s to 1990s would be considered average today, while the present coldest days would be regarded as normal in the 1980s to 1990s. Over 1979–2021, there was a 2°C (or 7%) reduction of pan-Arctic SAT seasonal cycle, which resulted in warming of the cold SAT extremes by a factor of 2 relative to the SAT trend and dampened trends of the warm SAT extremes by roughly 25%. Since 1979, autumn has seen the strongest increasing trends in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as counts of days with SAT above the 90th percentile and decreasing trends in counts of days with SAT below the 10th percentile, consistent with rapid Arctic sea ice decline and enhanced air–ocean heat fluxes. The modulated SAT seasonal signal has a significant impact on the timing of extremely strong monthly cold and warm spells. The dampening of the SAT seasonal fluctuations is likely to continue to increase as more sea ice melts and upper-ocean warming persists. As a result, the Arctic winter cold SAT extremes may continue to exhibit a faster rate of change than that of the summer warm SAT extremes as the Arctic continues to warm. Significance Statement: As a result of global warming, the Arctic Ocean's sea ice is receding, exposing more and more areas to air–sea interactions. This reduces the range of seasonal changes in Arctic surface air temperatures (SAT). Since 1979, the reduced seasonal SAT signal has decreased the trend of warm SAT extremes by 25% over the background warming trend and doubled the trend of cold SAT extremes relative to SAT trends. A substantial number of warm and cold spells would not have been identified as exceptional if the reduction of the Arctic SAT seasonal amplitudes had not been taken into account. As the Arctic continues to warm and sea ice continues to diminish, seasonal SAT fluctuations will become more dampened, with the rate of decreasing winter SAT extremes exceeding the rate of increasing summer SAT extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global gridded data sets of observed extremes indices underpin assessments of changes in climate extremes. However, similar efforts to enable the assessment of indices relevant to different sectors of society have been missing. Here we present a data set of sector‐specific indices, based on daily station data, that extends the HadEX3 data set of climate extremes indices. These additional indices, which can be used singly or in combinations, have been recommended by the World Meteorological Organization and are intended to empower decision makers in different sectors with accurate historical information about how sector‐relevant measures of the climate are changing, especially in regions where in situ daily temperature and rainfall data are hard to come by. The annual and/or monthly indices have been interpolated on to a 1.875° × 1.25° longitude‐latitude grid for 1901–2018. We show changes in globally‐averaged time series of these indices in comparison with reanalysis products. Changes in temperature‐based indices are consistent with global scale warming, with days with Tmax > 30°C (TXge30) increasing virtually everywhere with potential impacts on crop fertility. At the other end of the scale, the number of days with Tmin < −2°C (TNltm2) are reducing, decreasing potential damage from frosts. Changes in heat wave characteristics show increases in the number, duration and intensity of these extreme events in most places. The gridded netCDF files and, where possible, the underlying station indices are available from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadex3 and https://www.climdex.org. Plain Language Summary: To be able to assess changes in extreme temperature and rainfall events across the globe, data sets which capture characteristics of these extreme events are required. The use of indices for these characteristics further enables both data sharing and the comparison of events across the world. Extreme events have impacts across human health, our infrastructure and the natural environment. So far there has not been a global product which presents indices which are relevant for different sectors of our society, including health, agriculture and water resources. In this work we present an extension to an existing data set of extremes indices, HadEX3, by including indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization which were developed with sector specific applications in mind. We have used the same approach and methodology, and where possible the same underlying daily temperature and rainfall observations. The temperature indices show changes consistent with global scale warming, with heat wave characteristics showing increases in the number, duration and intensity of these extreme events in most places. The data files are available for use by interested researchers in their work. Key Points: We present a sector specific extension to a data set of gridded temperature and precipitation extremesThis first quasi‐global product of these indices will support decision makers in a wide range of sectorsLong‐term changes show increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of warm extremes, and corresponding decreases in cool extremes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate extremes and rising energy prices present interconnected global health risks. Technical solutions can be supplemented with biomedical approaches to promote healthy longevity in hot and cold conditions. In summer, reducing basal metabolic rate through mild caloric restriction or CR mimetics, such as resveratrol, can potentially be used to lower body temperature. In winter, activating brown adipose tissue (BAT) for non-shivering thermogenesis and improved metabolic health can help adaptation to colder environments. Catechins found in green tea and in other food could be alternatives to drugs for these purposes. This review examines and discusses the biomedical evidence supporting the use of CR mimetics and BAT activators for health benefits amid increasingly extreme temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are among the most pervasive weather hazards in the western Himalayan region (WHR), posing widespread damage to life, infrastructure, and agriculture. This study investigates the synoptic and large‐scale characteristics linked to winter precipitation extremes over the WHR. EPEs are identified as events surpassing the 95th percentile threshold. A composite analysis is employed using two reanalyses—the fifth‐generation European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) and the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA)—to elucidate the synoptic conditions conducive to EPEs. Our findings suggest that EPEs in the WHR are linked to an intensified subtropical westerly jet, characteristically shifted to south than normal. Enhanced kinetic energy in the upper troposphere, attributed to increased baroclinic instability, reinforces moisture convergence and strengthens synoptic‐scale circulation, triggering deep convection and supporting EPEs. Notably, the interplay of pronounced Rossby waves sinking over the WHR and regional orography significantly modulates the intensity of western disturbances (WDs). Employing clustering analysis, we observed that the strongest EPEs are linked to anomalous vorticity in the upper to middle troposphere, together with deep convection via strengthened WDs, suggesting the potential role of large‐scale influences. Using Lagrangian method, we identify that the Arabian Sea is the primary moisture source for EPEs in the WHR. We further delved into the role of large‐scale connections and EPEs through quasi‐resonant amplification (QRA) analysis. The findings unveil distinct QRA fingerprints in meridional temperature gradients along with notably magnified, quasi‐stationary midlatitude planetary waves characterized by zonal wave numbers 6/7/8 (baroclinic waves) contributing to EPEs. Overall, our results highlight the underlying physical mechanisms for winter precipitation extremes, emphasizing QRA's role in amplifying planetary waves and promoting EPEs, underscoring the WHR's vulnerability to evolving climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing niche evolution remains an open question and an actively developing area of study. The family Ursidae consists of eight extant species for which, despite being the most studied family of carnivores, little is known about the influence of climate on their evolutionary history and diversification. We evaluated their evolutionary patterns based on a combined phylogeography and niche modeling approach. We used complete mitogenomes, estimated divergence times, generated ecological niche models and applied a phyloclimatic model to determine the species evolutionary and diversification patterns associated with their respective environmental niches. We inferred the family evolutionary path along the environmental conditions of maximum temperature and minimum precipitation, from around 20 million years ago to the present. Our findings show that the phyloclimatic niches of the bear species occupy most of the environmental space available on the planet, except for the most extreme warm conditions, in accordance with the wide geographic distribution of Ursidae. Moreover, some species exhibit broader environmental niches than others, and in some cases, they explore precipitation axes more extensively than temperature axes or vice versa, suggesting that not all species are equally adaptable to these variables. We were able to elucidate potential patterns of niche conservatism and evolution, as well as niche overlapping, suggesting interspecific competitive exclusion between some of the bear species. We present valuable insights into the ecological and evolutionary processes driving the diversification and distribution of the Ursidae. Our approach also provides essential information for guiding effective conservation strategies, particularly in terms of distribution limits in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to study the Wachau Valley in Austria as a representative Cultural Landscape under threat from extreme hydrometeorological hazards linked to climate change. The primary objective is to investigate the impacts and assess the vulnerability associated with the events of heavy rain and flooding. The methodology employed consists of an investigation of recorded past events impacting the Wachau; a vulnerability ranking system; a climate time series analysis based on earth observation products; and future hazard maps at territorial level, developed with outputs from regional and global climate models. The investigation we carried out provides a vulnerability assessment of two terraced areas with a surface of about 10,000 m2 in total, characterized by the presence of dry stone walls, with different state of conservation in the Municipality of Krems (Wachau). In addition, climate projections at territorial level for the extreme climate indices R20mm, R95pTOT, and R×5day—selected for investigating the likelihood of increases/decreases in events of heavy rain and large basin flooding—are provided, with a spatial resolution of ~12 km for the near and far future (2021–2050; 2071–2100) under stabilizing (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios. The results indicate a general increase for the three indices in the studied areas during the far future under the pessimistic scenario, suggesting a heightened risk of heavy rain and flooding. These findings aim to inform policymakers and decision-makers in their development of strategies for safeguarding cultural heritage. Furthermore, they serve to assist local stakeholders in enhancing their understanding of prioritizing interventions related to preparedness, emergency response, and recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The severity and frequency of extremes are changing; thus, it is becoming necessary to evaluate the impacts of land cover changes and urbanisation along with climate change. A framework of the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) method, Google Earth Engine (GEE), and land cover patterns' classification including Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) can be useful for streamflow impact analysis. For this study, we developed a unique framework consisting of a hydrological model in line with the Process-informed Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (ProNEVA) GEV model and an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs), mapping land cover patterns using classification methods within the GEE platform. We applied these methods in Southeast Queensland (SEQ) to analyse the maximum instantaneous floods in non-stationary catchment conditions, considering the physical system in terms of cause and effect. Independent variables (DEM, population, slope, roads, and distance from roads) and an integrated RF, SVM methodology were utilised as spatial maps to predict their influences on land cover changes for the near and far future. The results indicated that physical factors significantly influence the layout of landscapes. First, the values of projected evapotranspiration and rainfall were extracted from the multi-model ensemble to investigate the eight GCMs under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The AWBM hydrological model was calibrated with daily streamflow and applied to generate historical runoff for 1990–2010. Runoff was projected under two scenarios for eight GCMs and by incorporating the percentage of each land cover into the hydrological model for two horizons (2020–2065 and 2066–2085). Following that, the ProNEVA model was used to calculate the frequency and magnitude of runoff extremes across the parameter space. The maximum peak flood differences under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 16.90% and 15.18%, respectively. The outcomes of this study suggested that neglecting the non-stationary assumption in flood frequency can lead to underestimating the amounts that can lead to more risks for the related hydraulic structures. This framework is adaptable to various geographical regions to estimate extreme conditions, offering valuable insights for infrastructure design, planning, risk assessment, and the sustainable management of future water resources in the context of long-term water management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the concept of treeline dynamics in response to global warming. The authors argue that treeline ecotones in alpine and arctic settings are less sensitive to anthropogenic warming than commonly assumed. They propose the concepts of range-pinning and Allee effects as factors that may explain the reduced temperature sensitivity of treeline positions. The authors suggest that future treeline studies should consider eco-physiological and biochemical insights, empirical evidence for Allee effects, and interdisciplinary approaches to advance knowledge in biogeography and ecology. [Extracted from the article]

Extreme events of climate change are increasing, such as droughts and heat waves, causing limitations on growth and yield in relevant food crops, as well as threatening global food security. Brassinosteroids (BRs) are natural or synthetic steroids with significant properties that promote plant growth and development. In the current world scenario, research and solutions that can improve plant tolerance to climate change are strategic to ensure food security. The distinctiveness and novelty of this review lie in its comprehensive and detailed approach to the role of BRs in plants under biotic and abiotic stresses. We consolidate information on the action mechanisms on specific organs, providing detailed experimental conclusions of these plant growth regulators, including also commercial products and concentrations tested aiming to mitigate the adverse effects of the stresses. This practical approach highlights the potential of BRs in agriculture and plant protection against stresses. Additionally, our review presents results with plant models and essential food crops, focusing on multidisciplinary approaches and using physiological, biochemical, nutritional, anatomical and agronomic tools to explain the mechanisms of action of brassinosteroids in plants exposed to abiotic and biotic stresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation events, which are common natural hazards, are expected to increase in frequency due to global warming, leading to various types of floods, including pluvial floods. In this study, we investigated the probabilities of maximum 3-day precipitation amount (Rx3day) occurrences during spring in the Vojvodina region, covering both past (1971–2019) and future (2020–2100) periods. We utilized an ensemble of eight downscaled, bias-corrected regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project database, selecting the RCP8.5 scenario to examine future Rx3day amounts. The probabilities of occurrences of Rx3day were modeled using the GEV distribution, while the number of events where Rx3day in spring exceeds specific thresholds was modeled using the Poisson distribution. The results indicate that Rx3day with a ten-year return period during the spring months is expected to increase by 19% to 33%. Additionally, the probabilities of having more than one event where Rx3day exceeds thresholds are projected to rise by 105.6% to 200.0% in the future compared to the historical period. The analysis comparing the design values of Rx3day with future projections for the period 2020–2100 revealed that 51 drainage systems are likely to function without difficulties under future climate conditions. However, for the remaining 235 drainage systems, an increased risk of pluvial flooding was identified, as their design precipitation amounts are lower than the future projections. This study reveals that analyzing extreme rainfall events in the context of climate change yields crucial information that facilitates effective planning and policy making in water management, particularly flood protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Snapshot' surveys conducted over 1 year or less are widely used to describe avian community composition. Maron et al. (Austral Ecology, 2005, 30, 383) questioned the utility of snapshot surveys and the conclusions drawn from them following repeat bird surveys at 26 sites in western Victoria, 7 years after initial surveys. They concluded, 'the distribution of most species did not differ significantly from that expected if species had redistributed at random among sites'. Only five of 54 species recorded in both years had distributions that changed significantly less than expected among sites between the survey periods. We question whether this is the exception rather than the rule for Australian landbird communities in wooded habitats for three reasons: (1) passerine species dominate these communities and tend to remain faithful to a site once a breeding territory has been established; (2) most landbird species are sedentary or migratory, not nomadic; and (3) most Australian passerines are long‐lived, so surveys conducted within decadal timeframes may sample the same individuals. We examined the constancy of bird community composition by conducting repeat surveys at 29 sites in two vegetation types in the Namoi Valley, northern New South Wales, 7 years after the first survey. Bird assemblage composition in our study exhibited high levels of turnover between surveys, but 21 of 62 species present in both survey periods were significantly more likely to be found at the same sites in the second period as the first, and the tendency of most species was of site fidelity. Mantel tests demonstrated that assemblage composition at the same sites was more similar than expected by chance. Moderate levels of site fidelity among species and significant levels of assemblage composition constancy among sites should be the expectation when monitoring Australian landbird communities in wooded habitats over extended timeframes, except in the cases of major landscape transformation and extreme climatic disruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regeneration niche of trees is governed by many processes and factors that are challenging to determine. Besides a species's geographic distribution, which determines if seeds are available, a myriad of local processes in forest ecosystems (e.g., competition and pathogens) exert influences on tree regeneration. Consequently, the representation of tree regeneration in dynamic forest models is a notoriously complicated process which often involves many subprocesses that are often data deficient. The ForClim forest gap model solved this problem by linking species traits to regeneration properties. However, this regeneration module was never validated with large-scale data. Here, we compare this trait-based approach with an inverse calibration approach where we estimate regeneration parameters directly from a large dataset of unmanaged European forests. The inverse calibration was done using Bayesian inference, estimating shade and drought tolerance as well as the temperature requirements for 11 common tree species along with the intensity of regeneration (i.e., the maximum regeneration rate). We find that the parameters determining the species' light niche (i.e., light requirements) are similar for the trait-based and calibrated values for both model variants, but only a more complex model variant that included competition between recruits leads to plausible estimates of the drought niche. The trait-derived temperature niche did not match to the estimates from either model variant using inverse calibration. The parameter estimates differed between the complex and the simple model, with the estimates for the complex model being closer to the trait-based parameters. In both model variants, the calibration strongly changed the parameters that determine regeneration intensity compared to the default. We conclude that the regeneration niche of trees can be recovered from a large forestry dataset in terms of the stand-level parameters light availability and regeneration intensity, while abiotic drivers (temperature and drought) are more elusive. The higher performance (better fit to hold out) of the inversely calibrated models underpins the importance of informing dynamic models by real-world observations. Future research should focus on even greater environmental coverage of observations of demographic processes in unmanaged forests to verify our findings at species range limits under extreme climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the benefit of Copula for modeling correlation of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and hydroclimatic extremes in Serayu river basin, Indonesia. Precipitation and streamflow dataset from ground-based measurement and sea surface temperature dataset from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extending from 1985 to 2017 were analyzed in this study. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to extract the leading principal components (PCs) that explain more than 50% of data variance. Linear model and Copula model were utilized to detect tropical regions that possess strong correlation with hydroclimatic extremes. Within these regions, Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model (BDLM) was used to scrutinize the role of regional SST in the tropical regions. The result suggests increasing trend of daily hydroclimatic extremes and decreasing tendency of seasonal extremes over the period of 1985–2014, signifying intense floods and droughts in the study area. Furthermore, while typical regions owing to have powerful link with hydroclimatic extremes are detected from linear model, different regions are produced by Copula model. This indicates that the Copula model complements the linear model, partially due to the ability of Copula model in gathering marginal distribution of the joint variables. Additionally, the larger areas spotted from Copula model strengthen the inference of influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Oscillation Dipole (IOD) on hydroclimatic extremes in tropical regions, such as the river basin in this study. Moreover, it is found that the association of hydroclimatic extremes and IOD is stronger after 2007 while opposite feature is observed on ENSO. These findings conclude the benefit of Copula on hydroclimatic extremes analysis, and the method should be applicable for other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change models predict that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are likely to increase, therefore understanding population responses to these extreme climatic events will be key in mitigating biodiversity loss. Here, using the male dimorphic bulb mite, Rhizoglyphus robini, we investigate and compare the impact of experimental heat stress on survival and fertility between females and male morphs that differ in the expression of a sexually selected weapon. We show that lethal limits are similar among all individuals, but find clear sex differences, although no difference between morphs, in sub‐lethal temperatures causing sterility: female fertility remains high close to lethal limits, whereas both male morphs suffer fertility loss at more than 2.5°C below their lethal limits. Contrastingly, when thermal stress was lower the sexes and morphs do not differ in their thermal sensitivity and declines in reproductive output are comparable. These declines appear to be additive as we observe the greatest declines when both sexes were exposed to thermal stress. In addition, during assays we included an extra treatment that allowed individuals two extra days to recover and found that fertility loss was almost fully recovered when thermal stress was low, but only partially recovered under the most extreme temperatures. The impact of heat stress on fertility therefore appears to be temporary with individuals rapidly recovering: whether recovery can negate negative population level effects remains to be investigated. Our experiments reveal the impact of heat stress on survival and fertility, finding sex‐specific fertility loss under the most extreme thermal conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultivation under screens and in screenhouses protects the crops from insects and extreme climate conditions and allows water saving. Previous studies considered the aerodynamic properties of boundary layers along two types of screens: a small shading thermal screen covering a hedgerow citrus orchard and a large 50-mesh, insect-proof screen covering a pepper plantation. To extend the previous results, a third type of screen was analysed in this study, a large flat-roof 17-mesh white woven shading screen covering a banana plantation. Vertical profiles of wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and friction velocity were measured by a lifting tower, and wind profiles were analysed under near-neutral atmospheric stability. Results show that normalised friction velocity, normalised roughness length, normalised zero plane displacement height and aerodynamic resistance are closer to the previous results of the large insect-proof screenhouse than those of the small shade net. • Boundary layer properties were analysed along a large banana screenhouse. • Results are presented under near-neutral atmospheric stability conditions. • Quantitative differences between the large screenhouses and the small shade net. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest health is being challenged worldwide due to changing disturbance regimes. These changes could promote the abundance and diversity of secondary forest pests, like the Agrilinae (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) borers, which are frequently involved in oak decline in Europe. We assessed the contribution of environmental factors to local abundance and temporal dynamics of oak-dwelling borers in France. We set up green multi-funnel traps in oak stands exhibiting a gradient of decline across six forests in 2021 and monitored the traps for six consecutive years in one forest. The community of borers was homogeneous among the forests and included several Mediterranean species. Increasing severity of decline at the plot and stand scales enhanced the abundance and species richness of the borers and influenced the composition of their community. Tree density, longitude and spring temperature also influenced the abundance of several species and of the community. Our multi-year survey indicated that inter-annual fluctuations in decline level weakly correlated with those of borer species. Most of the species experienced a major crash in 2017, suggesting that extreme climate events such as a warm early spring followed by a late frost can decimate borer populations. This may explain why borer damage has recently been relatively limited in France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing climate exerts significant pressure on coastal wetland fishery, ecosystems and livelihood at the eco-regional level. In the present study, an indicator and scoring-based vulnerability assessment framework was developed to assess climate change-induced potential impacts and vulnerability of the coastal wetlands through stakeholder perception and primary data collection on ecology and fisheries. The study was conducted in 12 coastal wetlands in the Gangetic estuarine regions of eastern India. Analysis of rainfall, temperature and extreme climatic events was also carried out. The climate variability in the region was analysed and discussed in the context of ecosystem health and sustainability indicators. The results indicated that anthropogenic stress has a greater influence on ecosystem services than climatic stress. However, the nature and degree of vulnerability of fishers to climate change vary with their capacity to adapt to such changes and alternate sources of livelihood. Altogether, 34 fish species were documented, belonging to 11 taxonomic orders, and categorized as per intensity of resilience using selected criteria. Perception-based climate-resilient adaptation strategies have also been discussed. Developing appropriate adaptation policies and implementing climate-resilient practices and management can minimize vulnerability and increase the adaptive capacity of fishers ensuring sustainable livelihood options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]