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Real time, or quantitative, PCR typically starts from a very low concentration of initial DNA strands. During iterations the numbers increase, first essentially by doubling, later predominantly in a linear way. Observation of the number of DNA molecules in the experiment becomes possible only when it is substantially larger than initial numbers, and then possibly affected by the randomness in individual replication. Can the initial copy number still be determined? This is a classical problem and, indeed, a concrete special case of the general problem of determining the number of ancestors, mutants or invaders, of a population observed only later. We approach it through a generalised version of the branching process model introduced by Jagers and Klebaner, 2003 and based on Michaelis-Menten type enzyme kinetical considerations from Schnell and Mendoza, 1997. A crucial role is played by the Michaelis-Menten constant being large, as compared to initial copy numbers. In a strange way, determination of the initial number turns out to be completely possible if the initial rate $v$ is one, i.e all DNA strands replicate, but only partly so when $v<1$, and thus the initial rate or probability of successful replication is lower than one. Then, the starting molecule number becomes hidden behind a "veil of uncertainty". This is a special case, of a hitherto unobserved general phenomenon in population growth processes, which will be addressed elsewhere., Comment: to appear in Journal of Mathematical Biology

Many results in the theory of Gaussian processes rely on the eigenstructure of the covariance operator. However, eigenproblems are notoriously hard to solve explicitly and closed form solutions are known only in a limited number of cases. In this paper we set up a framework for the spectral analysis of the fractional type covariance operators, corresponding to an important family of processes, which includes the fractional Brownian motion and its noise. We obtain accurate asymptotic approximations for the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions. Our results provide a key to several problems, whose solution is long known in the standard Brownian case, but was missing in the more general fractional setting. This includes computation of the exact limits of $L^2$-small ball probabilities and asymptotic analysis of singularly perturbed integral equations, arising in mathematical physics and applied probability., Comment: several typos fixed

This paper addresses the problem of estimating drift parameter of the Ornstein - Uhlenbeck type process, driven by the sum of independent standard and fractional Brownian motions. The maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal in the large-sample limit, using some recent results on the canonical representation and spectral structure of mixed processes., Comment: to appear in Theory of Probability and its Applications

This paper presents a new approach to the analysis of mixed processes \[X_t=B_t+G_t,\qquad t\in[0,T],\] where $B_t$ is a Brownian motion and $G_t$ is an independent centered Gaussian process. We obtain a new canonical innovation representation of $X$, using linear filtering theory. When the kernel \[K(s,t)=\frac{\partial^2}{\partial s\,\partial t}\mathbb{E}G_tG_s,\qquad s\ne t\] has a weak singularity on the diagonal, our results generalize the classical innovation formulas beyond the square integrable setting. For kernels with stronger singularity, our approach is applicable to processes with additional "fractional" structure, including the mixed fractional Brownian motion from mathematical finance. We show how previously-known measure equivalence relations and semimartingale properties follow from our canonical representation in a unified way, and complement them with new formulas for Radon-Nikodym densities., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOP1041 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

We consider the problem of threshold estimation for autoregressive time series with a "space switching" in the situation, when the regression is nonlinear and the innovations have a smooth, possibly non Gaussian, probability density. Assuming that the unknown threshold parameter is sampled from a continuous positive density, we find the asymptotic distribution of the Bayes estimator. As usually in the singular estimation problems, the sequence of Bayes estimators is found to be asymptotically efficient, attaining the minimax risk lower bound., Comment: 14 pages

A standard convergence analysis of the simulation schemes for the hitting times of diffusions typically requires non-degeneracy of their coefficients on the boundary, which excludes the possibility of absorption. In this paper we consider the CEV diffusion from the mathematical finance and show how a weakly consistent approximation for the absorption time can be constructed, using the Euler-Maruyama scheme.

We develop necessary and sufficient conditions for uniqueness of the invariant measure of the filtering process associated to an ergodic hidden Markov model in a finite or countable state space. These results provide a complete solution to a problem posed by Blackwell (1957), and subsume earlier partial results due to Kaijser, Kochman and Reeds. The proofs of our main results are based on the stability theory of nonlinear filters., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP688 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

This paper deals with convergence of the maximum a posterior probability path estimator in hidden Markov models. We show that when the state space of the hidden process is continuous, the optimal path may stabilize in a way which is essentially different from the previously considered finite-state setting., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ294 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm)

The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to I.Ibragimov and R.Khasminskii, consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of moments are established for MLE under certain strong ergodicity conditions of the chain., Comment: Warning: due to a flaw in the publishing process, some of the references in the published version of the article are confused

We investigate the robustness of nonlinear filtering for continuous time finite state Markov chains, observed in white noise, with respect to misspecification of the model parameters. It is shown that the distance between the optimal filter and that with incorrect model parameters converges to zero uniformly over the infinite time interval as the misspecified model converges to the true model, provided the signal obeys a mixing condition. The filtering error is controlled through the exponential decay of the derivative of the nonlinear filter with respect to its initial condition. We allow simultaneously for misspecification of the initial condition, of the transition rates of the signal, and of the observation function. The first two cases are treated by relatively elementary means, while the latter case requires the use of Skorokhod integrals and tools of anticipative stochastic calculus., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000871 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

This note has been withdrawn by the author as the more complete result was recently proved by A.Quas and Y.Peres, Comment: This paper has been withdrawn

The nonlinear filtering equation is said to be stable if it ``forgets'' the initial condition. It is known that the filter might be unstable even if the signal is an ergodic Markov chain. In general, the filtering stability requires stronger signal ergodicity provided by the, so called, mixing condition. The latter is formulated in terms of the transition probability density of the signal. The most restrictive requirement of the mixing condition is the uniform positiveness of this density. We show that it might be relaxed regardless of an observation process structure., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051604000000873 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)