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We analyse the impact of interest-bearing central bank bills on financial market variables in Switzerland. The unique institutional setting allows us to identify the causal effects of two orthogonal shocks occurring on days with central bank bill auctions through heteroscedasticity: an overnight interest rate shock and a signalling shock. The first shock raises the overnight interest rate and modestly appreciates the exchange rate. The signalling shock appreciates the exchange rate more strongly. In addition, it lowers stock prices, long-term interest rates, as well as inflation expectations, and it raises corporate bond spreads. The signalling shock is economically more important for forward-looking variables than the overnight rate shock. The results suggest that liquidity-absorbing operations between official monetary policy decisions affect financial market variables by revealing information about the central bank's future policy actions., European Economic Review, 143, ISSN:0014-2921, ISSN:1873-572X

This study investigates the extent of use of treasury bills and central bank bills as monetary policy instrument by level of development of countries, and problems caused from using two securities simultaneously. Very interestingly, it is observed that advanced countries tend to have either treasury bills or central bank bills while less advanced countries use both bills. Also the advanced countries are discovered to use more treasury bills than central bank bills. It is also found that employment of two securities leads to bond market segmentation, profit deterioration of central bank, and increase of government debt. Based on these problems caused by using two bills simultaneously, I suggest that central bank bills should be integrated into treasury bills in those countries in which two bills are used at the same time. As for the integration, I recommend that maturity of two bills need to be adjusted before long, resulting in short- and long-term for treasury securities and mid-term for central bank bills.

Thesis aim of this draft background note is to provide public debt managers with an overview of the matters that need to be considered by debt management offices planning to provide a securities lending facility to their primary dealers.

In 2014, economic growth slowed as it began to adjust to unsustainable economic imbalances. Real GDP growth softened to 7 percent in the first 9 months, from 12.8 percent in the previous year. Despite strong mining production growth of 26 percent, the growth of the non-mining sector of the economy dropped to 2 percent in the third quarter from 17.4 percent a year ago. Investment sharply fell amidst declining FDI and weakening business prospects. Consumption remains relatively strong but is also gradually softening. The growth effect from stimulus measures of the last year is also wearing off in 2014 as large liquidity support from the central bank cannot be sustained in the wake of high inflation and external vulnerabilities. The current account deficit is narrowing significantly to around 11 percent of GDP from almost 30 percent in the previous three years, due to import contraction over 16 percent and stronger copper exports. However, a significant external financing gap continues amidst declining foreign investment, reducing internal reserves to less than three months import cover. Inflation remains in double digits after a strong credit boom in 2014 and continuous currency depreciation. Economic growth is likely to continue to soften in 2015 as the economy remains under pressure from the external imbalance and high inflation. To help achieve the goal of the new Solutions-oriented Government to overcome economic challenges and build a sound economic management system, the following policy actions are recommended to be considered in the economic policy framework: (1) Consolidate the off-budget spending made through the DBM into the budget; (2) prepare a credible and realistic fiscal consolidation plan to reduce the deficit; (3) monetary policy should be tightened; (4) further quasi-fiscal activities need to be avoided; and (5) the exchange rate should be left flexible.

Since 2004 (Ethiopian Fiscal Year (EFY) 1997), Ethiopia has experienced strong and generally broad-based real economic growth of around 10.6 percent on average between then and 2011. Growth over the last nine years was far beyond the growth rates recorded in aggregate terms for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which on average only reached 5.2 percent, less than half of Ethiopia's average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate during that period. Inspired by the East Asian experiences for a comparison of selected indicators and policies of Ethiopia and China/Korea), growth was induced through a mix of factors including agricultural modernization, the development of new export sectors, strong global commodity demand, and government-led development investments. The initial double digits growth rates have now manifested slightly lower but remain at high single-digit levels. The economy is expected to stabilize at around seven to eight percent in 2012, largely owing to improved performance in the agriculture sector. GDP growth is likely to stay around that margin up until 2016 (EFY 2008) driven by rising foreign investment and exports (Economist Intelligence Unit 2012). High inflation persists, but is on a slightly decreasing trend. Economic growth brought with it positive trends in reducing poverty, in both urban and rural areas. Ethiopia follows a strategy of increasing exports to facilitate growth. This is appropriate given the currently limited size of its domestic market and it is consistent with the development experience of some of the recently successful countries, particularly in East Asia. Export of goods growth is to a good extent driven by volume growth across a variety of product groups, which indicates that this growth is a result of recent efforts to increase and diversify the export base. Overall export and import developments result in a significantly increased trade deficit by 43 percent, up from US$5.5 billion in 2010/11 to US$7.9 billion.

The World Bank's Mongolia quarterly economic update assesses recent economic and social developments and policies in Mongolia. It also presents findings of ongoing World Bank activities in Mongolia. The Mongolian economy is continuing to grow at a very rapid pace, expanding by 16.7 percent year-on-year (yoy) in first quarter (Q1). This high growth however, is also fuelling inflation which touched 16 percent in April, well above the Bank of Mongolia's (BoM) inflation target of 10 percent. Increasing government spending on wages and salaries, large cash handouts to the general population, and burgeoning capital expenditures are adding to the demand pressures. Meanwhile, the worsening global economic outlook, in particular a faster than expected slowdown in China, Mongolia's largest trading partner, has negatively impacted export growth, resulting in deterioration in external balances. Under these circumstances, the advice to Mongolian policy-makers is to 'hold your horses' and adopt a more cautious macro-economic stance, tightening both monetary and fiscal policy to prevent further over-heating of the economy. The global economic outlook has deteriorated considerably in recent months. Financial conditions in high-income Europe, higher oil prices, and, most importantly, the slowing Chinese economy pose risks for Mongolia. The channels through which these operate include financial and trade linkages namely volatility in commodity prices and through demand from China for its mineral exports. Indeed, signs of these are already visible as demonstrated by the decline in exports in April. Other financial market linkages should also not be discounted: Mongolia's banking system, which has shown signs of overheating over the past year, is highly dollarized, with about a third of deposits denominated in dollars and easy convertibility out of the Mongolia Togrog. A sharp economic slowdown and/or an increased macroeconomic instability could expose the liquidity and asset quality vulnerabilities in individual banks and system overall.

The Malaysian economy grew robustly in 2011, outperforming forecasts. Growth was driven by domestic demand. Public consumption picked up more than expected toward the end of the year and fixed investment was also buoyant on higher investments by public and private companies. Private consumption spending remained strong, sustained by solid consumer credit, civil service bonus payments, and firm commodity prices benefiting smallholders. Inventories were a drag on growth as post- financial crisis restocking was completed. There is momentum to the reform agenda, but implementation could be accelerated. The government's transformation programs registered notable progress, but the challenge now is to go beyond quick wins and accelerate the implementation of more difficult, but critical, structural reforms that lie at the core of transforming the economy into a high-income one. Implementation can be assisted by increasing the coordination of related reform efforts (such as safety nets and education), building capacity within the civil service to lead reforms, and working towards consensus in key areas such as educational reform, subsidy rationalization and broadening the tax base.

The Securities Settlement Systems (SSS) in the People's Republic of China (PRC) are organized around three different types of markets, which are the bond market, the corporate securities market, and the futures market. The China Government Depositary and Clearing Corporation Limited (CCDC) is the SSS as well as the central securities depository (CSD) for bonds. The China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited (SD and C) is the central counterparty (CCP), SSS, as well as the CSD for all instruments traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). The four futures exchanges have their own clearing and settlement departments, which offer the function of a CCP. The CCDC, SD and C, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE), and Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange (ZCE) operate important securities and derivatives settlement systems both, due to the large volume and value of transactions and the fact that they support key financial sector markets (interbank bond market, stock exchanges and futures). The assessment of the bonds market-CCDC system against the Recommendations for Securities Settlement Systems (RSSS) concludes that the system observes (observed or broadly observed) thirteen of the 19 recommendations, being one not applicable. The assessment of the stock exchanges-SD and C system against the RSSS concludes that the system observes (observed or broadly observed) seventeen of the 19 recommendations. The assessment of the commodities futures markets-SHFE system against the Recommendations for Central Counterparties (RCCP) concludes that the system observes (observed or broadly observed) eleven of the 15 recommendations, being one not applicable. The present document is the assessment of securities and derivatives settlement systems in the PRC based on the recommendations of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) for RSSS and the recommendations of CPSS-IOSCO for Central Counterparties (RCCP). The paper is divided into following five parts: the first part gives general information; the second gives information and methodology used for assessment; the third part is securities and derivatives settlement systems infrastructure overview; the fourth part is main findings from the assessment with international standards; and the fifth part gives authorities' response.

In 2011, India's economic growth has slowed to below 7 percent and the stock markets mirrored the weakening economic conditions, but recovered somewhat in early 2012. Industrial sector output growth briefly slipped into negative territory. On the demand side, fixed investment and consumption growth slowed. India's exports were growing very strongly through 2011 despite the worsening economic conditions in Europe, which continued to be India's most important export market. The balance of payments continued to be in surplus during April-September 2011, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reserves declined by a small amount since then. The rupee nevertheless depreciated by 20 percent between August and December, before recovering somewhat in early 2012. Macroeconomic policies presented a mixed picture: the central government is likely to miss the ambitious target for fiscal consolidation it had set in the FY2011-12 budget by about one percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Slippages are due to lower-than-expected revenues and increasing outlays on subsidies, which had been given low budgetary allocations in anticipation of strong policy changes, which failed to materialize. In India, the slowdown in GDP growth witnessed over the last two quarters is likely to extend into the coming fiscal year because of the weakness in investment. In FY2011-12 and FY2012-13, GDP growth is forecast to reach around 7-7.5 percent, a significant slowdown from the 9-10 percent growth in the run-up to the global financial crisis. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems (power projects facing delays due to the lack of coal and gas feedstock, mining and the telecom sectors hit by corruption scandals, unavailability of land and infrastructure).

People's Bank of China (PBC) has carried out a major and comprehensive reform of the China National Payments System (CNPS). The PBC implemented the China National Advanced Payment System (CNAPS), which consists of the High-Value Payment System (HVPS) and the Bulk Electronic Payment System (BEPS). The HVPS system currently operates in a tiered way with a national processing center (NPC) and 32 local processing centers (LCPs). The HVPS system is interconnected to many trading, payments, and securities settlement systems (SSS) to allow for central bank money settlement. In addition, there is numerous cheque clearing houses around the country administered by the PBC local offices or delegated to banks. China Union Pay (CUP) handles the clearance of cards transactions whose balances are settled in the HVPS. Also automated clearinghouses (ACHs) and other systems handle clearance and settlement for a variety of payment instruments. The HVPS is a systemically important payment system, as it is the backbone of the national payments system in China. The HVPS handled transactions for a value of CY 804 trillion in 2009, approximately 24 times the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) value. Thus, the HVPS is being assessed against the ten Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment Systems (CPSIPS) of the Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) and the four responsibilities of the central banks in applying the CPSIPS. The BEPS is not currently a systemically important payment system. However, its importance for an efficient settlement of the interbank payment system is growing. The present document is the assessment of the systemically important payment systems in the People's Republic of China (PRC) based on the CPSS CPSIPS. The document also contains an analysis of some developmental issues related to the reform of the payments system as a whole. The assessment was conducted in the context of the first field mission of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) to the PRC (June 2010).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.

The economic rebound in recent quarters has been stronger than expected and the economy is showing signs of overheating. These signs are show up in rising inflation, especially of those goods and services which are in strong demand, but cannot easily be imported or whose local supply cannot readily be increased to meet the growing demand. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 20.8 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q3, following an outturn of 17.3 percent in Q2. Growth for the year as a whole will likely hit 15 percent, if not more, up from 6.4 percent in 2010, and is being pushed by infrastructure spending as Mongolia develops its vast mineral wealth. Inflation continues its upward trend. The trade deficit is close to record levels (US$ 1.4 bn in September using 12-month rolling sums) driven by a surge in mining-related equipment and fuel imports. Exports are growing strongly too, driven by large coal shipments to China. The 2012 budget continues this fiscal expansion and targets a 74 percent increase in expenditures (mostly on wages and social transfers).

The Mongolian economy is experiencing rapid growth in 2011 the second quarter saw the economy growing at a whopping 17.3 percent year on year, compared to 9.9 percent in the first quarter. Transportation and construction grew at 39.9 percent and 38.4 percent, respectively, while retail and wholesale trade grew at 24.7 percent, with Mongolians spending more on consumption as a result of higher incomes. The mining and manufacturing sectors recorded respectable growth rates of 8.3 and 12.9 percent yoy in the second quarter, respectively. Reflecting the higher growth, unemployment declined from 13 percent in December 2010 to 8.7 percent in June. Informal labor markets for unskilled workers are also booming, with real wages nearly doubling between December 2010 and June 2011. Mongolia's economic outlook depends heavily on global macroeconomic factors: the current uncertainty and poor growth prospects for the global economy are cause for concern. If there is another global recession, Mongolia's small, open economy will be affected. In that case, China's policy reaction will be crucial for Mongolia.

The economy continues to recover with most sectors rebounding strongly from the sharp drop in output late 2008 and early 2009. Preliminary estimates suggest that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.1 percent year-on-year in 2010, following an outturn of minus 1.3 percent in 2009. However, winter arrived in Mongolia with the agriculture sector still feeling the impact from last year's dzud. The sector has now experienced double-digit contractions for the third quarter in a row. The exchange rate against the US dollar has been slowly appreciating back to the pre-crisis level. In December 2010, the average monthly exchange rate against the US$ appreciated by 3.0 percent, compared to the previous month, or 15 percent compared to December 2009. The latest survey conducted in informal labor markets in December 2010 revealed a reduction in number of casual workers by about 40 percent compared to September due to the seasonal closure of construction labor markets, and reduced outdoor sales activities due to cold weather. Mongolia has made significant progress in improving budget transparency, but there is still considerable room for improvement. Finally, although Mongolia's laws are easily accessible online and court processes are generally impartial and transparent, the predictability of court decisions is limited and the courts, enforcement and registration agencies are often perceived as corrupt by the public.

The Indian economy recovered from the slowdown at the time of the global financial crisis with strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, in particular over the first half of FY2010-11. The agricultural sector bounced back strongly after the 2010 monsoon brought normal levels of rainfall, and the industrial sector registered double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters. Inflation came down to 7.5 percent in November but then accelerated again to 8.4 percent in December because of a renewed food supply shock. The current account deficit in FY2009-10 was the largest ever (in US$ terms) and the monthly deficit widened further during the first half of FY2010-11, but the trend then reversed with import growth slowing and export growth accelerating in September-December 2010. With the significant inflation differential between India and its trading partners, the rupees real effective exchange rate (REER) strengthened. On the fiscal side, massive windfall revenue from wireless spectrum auctions and buoyant tax revenue are likely to be offset by two supplementary spending bills. Monetary policy tightening continued with increases in policy rates. This update also discusses several medium-term issues: the link between the real exchange rate and growth, a long-term look at education, demographics and growth, the challenges facing the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and the mid-term evaluation of the eleventh development plan. On the real exchange rate, economists have pointed out that the most successful emerging market economies have maintained an undervalued exchange rate to promote exports. In India, the real exchange rate has been broadly stable since the early 1990s, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) judges it fairly valued with respect to different measures of equilibrium. However, the growing trade deficit and a large fiscal deficit do not quite fit this picture. Discussing policies, we argue that it would be best to focus on policies that increase productivity and competitiveness.

The improvement in public finances since last year, coupled with buoyant revenue due to the commodity price recovery, has led to growing pressures for increased government spending. Recently approved budget amendments envisage a 4.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) increase in spending on the originally approved 2010 budget, while the Mid-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) for 2011-2013 projects another 12.1 percent of GDP increase in spending in 2011. The main driver for the increases is the execution of promises made by both coalition parties to distribute monthly percentage rate, or MNT 1.5million (around US$1000) to each citizen in the form of cash and non-cash handouts and large public sector wage increases planned for October of this year. If these public spending plans materialize, they will set the stage for a renewed bout of high inflation and a possible return to the macroeconomic vulnerability characteristic of the boom-and-bust cycle of the recent past. In the real sector, the impact of increasing inflation is evidenced through a decline in real wages. The latest informal wage survey indicates that on average, workers' nominal wages have increased by about 10 percent from January 2010 to June 2010; this is because of an increase in job opportunities in the construction sector. Real wages, however, have declined on average due to the significant increase in the consumer price index.

The debt market in Thailand has made important strides since the financial crisis of 1997. The Thai government has made significant progress in building an orderly yield curve and is beginning to establish some benchmarks. However, more needs to be done if the government is to achieve its objective of enhancing liquidity in the market. In particular, liquidity in the secondary market would be enhanced by reducing the frequency of auctions, while increasing the size of each individual offering. Such a change will require primary dealers to change their mode of operation from effectively a broking operation to the provision of greater underwriting and market making services; consequently a review of the primary dealer system is warranted. Nevertheless, prospects for development of the government securities market will be constrained overall by the likely limited financing need going forward, unless the authorities can secure some additional flexibility to restructure the existing portfolio or otherwise establish more meaningful benchmarks. The corporate debt market suffers from too few issuers of corporate debt and too little diversity of debt offerings. This reflects, in part the limited corporate need for long-term financing, the ready availability of alternative financing by commercial banks at competitive rates, and regulatory policies that emphasize investor protection by imposing substantial limitations on the ability of institutional investors to purchase anything but investment grade debt, which effectively precludes issuance of below investment grade debt.