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Raw materials are essential to securing a transition to green energy technologies and for achieving the goals outlined in the European Green Deal. To meet the future energy demand through renewables, the power sector will face a massive deployment of wind and solar PV technologies. As result, the consumption of raw materials necessary to manufacture wind turbines and photovoltaic panels is expected to increase drastically in the coming decades. However, the EU industry is largely dependent on imports for many raw materials and in some cases is exposed to vulnerabilities in materials supply. These issues raise concerns on the availability of some raw materials needed to meet the future deployment targets for the renewable energy technologies. This study aims at estimating the future demand for raw materials in wind turbines and solar PV following several decarbonisation scenarios. For the EU, the materials demand trends were built on the EU legally binding targets by 2030 and deployment scenarios targeting a climate-neutral economy by 2050. At a global level, the generation capacity scenarios were selected based on various global commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency. Alongside the power generation capacity, the materials demand calculations considered three more factors such as the plant lifetime, sub-technology market share and materials intensity. By evaluating and combining those factors, three demand scenarios were built characterised by low, medium and high materials demands. For wind turbines, the annual materials demand will increase from 2-fold up to 15-fold depending on the material and the scenario considered. Significant demand increases are expected for both structural materials - concrete, steel, plastic, glass, aluminium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, and zinc - and technology specific materials such as rare earths and minor metals. In the EU the biggest increase in materials demand will be for onshore wind, with significantly lower variations for offshore wind, while on a global scale the situation is opposite. The most significant example is that of rare earths (e.g. dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium and terbium) used in permanent magnets-based wind turbines. In the most severe scenario, the EU annual demand for these rare earths can increase 6 times in 2030 and up to 15 times in 2050 compared to 2018 values. As consequence, by 2050, the deployment of wind turbines, according to EU decarbonisation goals, will require alone most of the neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium currently available to the EU market. In the high demand scenario, the global demand for rare earths in wind turbines could increase between 8-9 times in 2030 and 11-14 times in 2050 compared to 2018 values, a slightly lower increase compared to the EU. For solar PV technologies there are large differences in material demand between different scenarios, especially for those specific materials used in the manufacturing of PV cells. In the most optimistic case, improvements in material intensities can lead to a net decrease in materials demand. In the medium demand scenario, the balance between capacity deployment and the material intensities will result in a moderate increase in demand ranging from 3 to 8 fold for most materials. In the high demand scenario it is expected an increase in demand for all materials, for example a 4-fold increase for silver and up to a 12-fold increase for silicon in 2050. For cadmium, gallium, indium, selenium and tellurium the change in the demand will be more significant, up to a 40 times increase in 2050. The highest demand in 2050 is expected for germanium, which might increase up to 86 times compared to 2018 values. In the most severe conditions, the EU will require around 8 times in 2030 and up to 30 times in 2050 more structural materials such as used in frame and staffing materials compared to 2018 values. Instead, the EU annual demand for PV cells materials varies more broadly such as between 4 times for silver and 86 times for germanium in 2050 according to the high demand conditions. For silicon, the EU demand is expected to increase 2 times in 2030 and 4 times in 2050 under the medium demand scenario, and 7 times in 2030 and 13 times in 2050 under a high demand scenario. Considering both technologies, such high increases in materials demand will put additional stresses on the future availability of some raw materials. The EU transition to green energy technologies according to the current decarbonisation scenarios can be put in dangerous due to weaknesses in future supply security for several materials such as germanium, tellurium gallium, indium, selenium, silicon and glass for the solar PV and rare earths for the wind turbines technologies., JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Union

As attention to climate changes is increasing, several countries are implementing green strategies and rapidly switching to clean energy technologies. This leads to an increase of demand for materials used to manufacture key components of such technologies, and the European Commission has already flagged several of them as critical raw materials, which raise concerns on security of supply. An example of critical materials are rare earth elements, which are needed for the manufacturing of permanent magnets for wind turbine generators and electric vehicle motors, as well as for several applications in other fields. Those elements are currently supplied mainly from China, and with demands increasing at a rapid pace there are fears of supply bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions. On the other hand, following the rare earths crisis of the early 2010s, there have been increased efforts in geological exploration and development of alternative technologies, which may mitigate supply risks. This report aims at providing information, data and forecasts which can guide the discussion and put it into context., JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Union

This Geothermal Energy Technology Development 2020 presents an assessment of the state of the art, development trends, targets and needs, technological barriers, as well as techno-economic projections until 2050. Particular attention is paid to how EC funded projects contributed to technology advancements. It includes an overview of Member States' activities based on information from the relevant SET Plan Temporary Working Groups as well as the objectives and main outcomes of the most relevant international programmes., JRC.C.2-Energy Efficiency and Renewables

Meeting the targets of climate change mitigation set by the Paris Agreement entails a huge transformation of the energy sector, as low- or no-carbon technologies must gradually substitute traditional, fossil-based technologies. In this perspective, the vast majority of energy analyses and scenarios project a fundamental role of Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS). However, uncertainty remains on the actual techno-economic feasibility of this technology: despite the considerable investment over the recent past, commercial maturity is yet to come. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the impacts of a progressively delayed deployment of CCS plants from a climate, energy, and economic perspective, focusing in particular on the power sector. This is carried out with the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH, exploring a wide set of long-term scenarios over mitigation targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C in terms of global temperature increase in 2100 with respect to the pre-industrial levels. The analysis shows that CCS will be a key mitigation option at a global level for carbon mitigation, achieving about 30% of the electricity mix in 2100 (with a homogeneous distribution across coal, gas, and biomass) if its deployment is unconstrained. If CCS deployment is delayed or forbidden, penetration cannot reach the optimal unconstrained level, resulting in a mix rearrangement, with a strong increase in renewables and, to a lesser extent, nuclear. The mitigation targets can be met, but policy costs without the implementation of CCS are from 35% to 72% higher than in the corresponding unconstrained scenarios.

Nuclear is considered as a valuable option for the decarbonization of the power generation, as it is a no-carbon, yet commercially consolidated technology. However, its real prospects are uncertain: if some countries, especially in the non-OECD area, have been extensively investing in nuclear, many OECD countries, which host the vast majority of operational reactors worldwide, feature old fleets which will not be replaced, as phase-out policies are being implemented. Research scenarios often consider polarized conditions based on either a global unconstrained nuclear development or a generalized phase-out. The main aim of this work is instead to explore the techno-economic implications of policy-relevant scenarios, designed on the actual nuclear prospects in the world regions, i.e. mainly differentiating policy constraints between the OECD and the non-OECD regions. The analysis, conducted via the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH, shows that nuclear generation constantly grows over the century, even if in general the nuclear share in the electricity mix does not significantly change over time, both at a global and at a European level. Over time, and especially if constraints are applied to nuclear deployment, the nuclear contribution is compensated by renewables (mainly wind and solar PV) and, to a lower extent, by CCS (only marginally in the EU). The policy costs related to the nuclear phase-out are not particularly high (0.4% additional global GDP loss with respect to the unconstrained policy scenario), as they are almost completely compensated by innovation and technology benefits in renewables and energy efficiency. Phase-out policies applied only to the OECD regions do not entail any additional policy costs, while non-OECD regions marginally benefit from lower uranium prices. A sudden shutdown of nuclear reactors in the OECD regions results in a doubling of these losses and gains.

The objective of this report is to provide recommendations for long-term R&D priorities for crosscutting EC funded projects in the energy domain. Nineteen JRC experts analysed synergies and issues of the future energy system in following areas: * objectives of Horizon 2020 projects were compared with national and international projects; * key energy technologies for a cost-effective energy transition using the energy system model JRC-EU-TIMES; * development trends of LCEO technologies with regard to their potential to provide grid support services; and * R&D synergies between LCEO technologies to accelerate development and use research budgets efficiently., JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Union

This Geothermal Energy Technology Market 2018 presents an assessment of the state of the art, development trends, targets and needs, technological barriers, as well as techno-economic projections until 2050. Particular attention is paid to how EC funded projects contributed to technology advancements. It includes an overview of Member States' activities based on information from the relevant SET Plan Temporary Working Groups as well as the objectives and main outcomes of the most relevant international programmes., JRC.C.2-Energy Efficiency and Renewables

International audience

International audience; The importance of solar PV as a power technology has rapidly grown in the last years and now it is indisputable that it will play a major role in the future energy scenario. One of the most important factors influencing PV penetration in the electricity mix is its investment cost. This cost decreased quite regularly in the past and this trend is expected to continue in the next decades.However, substantial uncertainty still remains on the actual future cost evolution and on the consequent impacts on PV diffusion. Basing on this consideration, a modeling scenario exercise has been set up which aims at exploring the impacts of the different cost patterns on PV penetration in the electricity mix and on other relevant variables. The objective of the exercise is twofold:- From a policy-relevancy perspective, explore different scenarios related to the possible future cost patterns of the solar PV technology;-From a modeling perspective, assess the responsiveness of models to changes in the cost data input.This extended abstract briefly describes the exercise and some illustrative results from the preliminary set of runs.

This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different “worlds" of the SSP.

This paper explores the opportunities for integrating Initiative Based Learning (IBL) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) in order to improve our understanding of learning in the context of societal transition pathways, and more specifically by focusing on solar PV as an energy transition technology. Our analysis shows that IAMs and IBL conceptualize learning in a very different way, and the two approaches have major structural differences with respect to the geographical as well as the temporal scale of analysis. This is also due to the different goals of the two methodologies. The aim of IAM is to develop long-term energy and technology scenarios for the next thirty to eighty years, and to describe learning processes mostly to account for future potential improvements in technologies, while IBL focuses on understanding the configuration of actors in specific institutional settings that legitimize and support specific technologies and ultimately lead to dynamics of social learning. Although ambitious forms of integration between IAMs and IBL are not feasible today, the two approaches can be used in parallel and lead to mutual enrichment via a process that we label a two-way recursive collaboration.

This paper presents estimates of the economic benefit of air quality improvements in Europe that occur as a side effect of GHG emission reductions. We consider three climate policy scenarios that reach radiative forcing levels in 2100 of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These targets are achieved by introducing a global uniform tax on all GHG emissions in the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH, assuming both full as well as limited technological flexibility. The resulting consumption patterns of fossil fuels are used to estimate the physical impacts and the economic benefits of pollution reductions on human health and on key assets by implementing the most advanced version of the ExternE methodology with its Impact Pathway Analysis. We find that the mitigation scenario compatible with +2°C reduces total pollution costs in Europe by 76%. Discounted ancillary benefits are more than €2.5 trillion between 2015 and 2100. The monetary value of reduced pollution is equal to €22 per abated ton of CO2 in Europe. Less strict climate policy scenarios generate overall smaller, but still considerable, local benefits (14 € or 18 € per abated ton of CO2). Without discounting, the ancillary benefits are in a range of €36 to €50 per ton of CO2 abated. Cumulative ancillary benefits exceed the cumulative additional cost of electricity generation in Europe. Each European country alone would be better off if the mitigation policy was implemented, although the local benefits in absolute terms vary significantly across the countries. We can identify the relative losers and winners of ancillary benefits in Europe. In particular, we find that large European countries contribute to as much as they benefit from ancillary benefits. The scenarios with limited technology flexibility do deliver results that are similar to the full technology flexibility scenario.

The penetration of Variable Renewable Energies (VREs) in the electricity mix poses serious challenges in terms of management of the electrical grids, as the associated variability and non-dispatchability are in contrast with the requirement that the load be instantaneously equalized by the generation. One of the goals of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is to simulate the evolution of electricity demand and generation mix over time, therefore a proper modeling of VRE system integration is crucial. In this paper we discuss how different modeling mechanisms can profoundly impact the evolution of the electricity mix, and specifically renewable penetration. In particular, we focus on the effects of introducing a set of explicit system integration constraints in a model, WITCH, characterized by a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) framework.

This paper examines how changes in an international climate regime would affect the European decarbonization strategy and costs through the mechanisms of trade, technology, and innovation. We present the results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) model comparison study on European climate policy to 2050. Moving from a no-policy scenario to an existing-policies case reduces all energy imports, on average. Introducing a more stringent climate policy target for the EU only leads to slightly greater global emission reductions. Consumers and producers in Europe bear most of the additional burden and inevitably face some economic losses. More ambitious mitigation action outside Europe, especially when paired with a well-operating global carbon market, could reduce the burden for Europe significantly. Because of global learning, the costs of wind and especially solar-PV in Europe would decline below the levels observed in the existing-policy case and increased R&D spending outside the EU would leverage EU R&D investments as well.

The extraction and processing of unconventional oil is more energy intensive and has larger negative environmental impacts than the extraction of conventional oil. The European Union (EU) estimates that oil sands lead to 22% more emissions than conventional oil. The EU is very concerned by the potential climate and environmental impacts and has considered introducing a tax on imported unconventional oil in order to discourage its production. This study shows that a global ban on the use of unconventional oil substantially reduces global carbon dioxide emissions, but the policy is not efficient. A unilateral ban of the EU on unconventional oil has no climate benefits and it is expensive for Europe.

The abatement of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (OGHG) has proved to be of paramount importance for reaching global mitigation targets. The modeling of their abatement is normally carried out referring to marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, which by now represent a standard approach for such an analysis. As no evolution scenarios are available to describe future mitigation opportunities for OGHGs, exogenous technical progress factors (TP) are normally imposed, producing progressive MAC dilatation over time. The main aim of this work is to perform a sensitivity analysis evaluating climate and economic effects of imposing various TPs under different policy scenarios: the analysis shows that TP variation has a considerable impact on the climatic and economic results.

This paper investigates whether an inefficient allocation of abatement, due to constraints on the use of currently available low carbon mitigation options, can promote innovation in new technologies and eventually generate welfare gains. We focus on the case of nuclear power phase out, when accounting for endogenous technical change in energy efficiency and in low carbon technologies. The analysis uses the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH, which features multiple externalities due to both climate and innovation market failures. Our results show that phasing out nuclear power stimulates additional R&D investments and deployment of infant technologies with large learning potential. The innovation benefits which this would generate and that would not otherwise be captured due to intertemporal and international externalities almost completely offset the economic costs of phasing out nuclear power. The technological change benefit depends on the stringency of the climate policy and is distributed unevenly across countries.

In recent years considerable attention has been paid to power generation from biomass, especially in small scale plants. Several plant configurations have been proposed and investigated, but so far, definitely preferable technological solutions have not been found yet. Moreover, a comparison of their performances is often difficult, due to the fact that working assumptions are not always consistent. The aim of the present work is to provide a full overview on small scale technologies regarding biomass exploitation (particularly woody one) for power generation, in order to define the most interesting solutions from a thermodynamic and economic point of view. Existing configurations or those which are expected to be potentially available on the market in the near future have been considered. Three plant sizes have been focused: 100 kWel, 1 MWel and 5 MWel. Internal combustion engines (ICE), (micro) gas turbines (mGT/GT), both internally and externally fired, and organic Rankine cycles (ORC) have been taken into account as power plants, while direct combustion and gasification have been considered for biomass. Simulations show that the externally fired gas turbine is the most promising technology at small scale (100 kWel), if a high temperature heat exchanger is available. A gasifier coupled with an internal combustion engine is instead preferable at larger scales (1 MWel and 5 MWel). An also proposed sensitivity analysis concerning moisture effects shows that biomass drying with flue gas is generally disadvantageous, even if sometimes (e.g. in gasifiers) necessary, because of the dryer cost.