Search

In this study, we evaluate a set of high-resolution (25–50 km horizontal grid spacing) global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), developed as part of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA (Process-based climate simulation: Advances in high resolution modelling and European climate risk assessment) project, and from the EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) regional climate models (RCMs) (12–50 km horizontal grid spacing) over a European domain. It is the first time that an assessment of regional climate information using ensembles of both GCMs and RCMs at similar horizontal resolutions has been possible. The focus of the evaluation is on the distribution of daily precipitation at a 50 km scale under current climate conditions. Both the GCM and RCM ensembles are evaluated against high-quality gridded observations in terms of spatial resolution and station density. We show that both ensembles outperform GCMs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which cannot capture the regional-scale precipitation distribution properly because of their coarse resolutions. PRIMAVERA GCMs generally simulate precipitation distributions within the range of EURO-CORDEX RCMs. Both ensembles perform better in summer and autumn in most European regions but tend to overestimate precipitation in winter and spring. PRIMAVERA shows improvements in the latter by reducing moderate-precipitation rate biases over central and western Europe. The spatial distribution of mean precipitation is also improved in PRIMAVERA. Finally, heavy precipitation simulated by PRIMAVERA agrees better with observations in most regions and seasons, while CORDEX overestimates precipitation extremes. However, uncertainty exists in the observations due to a potential undercatch error, especially during heavy-precipitation events. The analyses also confirm previous findings that, although the spatial representation of precipitation is improved, the effect of increasing resolution from 50 to 12 km horizontal grid spacing in EURO-CORDEX daily precipitation distributions is, in comparison, small in most regions and seasons outside mountainous regions and coastal regions. Our results show that both high-resolution GCMs and CORDEX RCMs provide adequate information to end users at a 50 km scale.

In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing EURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new simulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change. The focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required for the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as usual” scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.

Regional climate model simulations have routinely been applied to assess changes in precipitation extremes at daily time steps. However, shorter sub-daily extremes have not received as much attention. This is likely because of the limited availability of high temporal resolution data, both for observations and for model outputs. Here, summertime depth duration frequencies of a subset of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11∘ ensemble are evaluated with observations for several European countries for durations of 1 to 12 h. Most of the model simulations strongly underestimate 10-year depths for durations up to a few hours but perform better at longer durations. The spatial patterns over Germany are reproduced at least partly at a 12 h duration, but all models fail at shorter durations. Projected changes are assessed by relating relative depth changes to mean temperature changes. A strong relationship with temperature is found across different subregions of Europe, emission scenarios and future time periods. However, the scaling varies considerably between different combinations of global and regional climate models, with a spread in scaling of around 1–10 % K−1 at a 12 h duration and generally higher values at shorter durations.

Abstract It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co‐occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co‐occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. These changes are combined with population projections for a low (SSP1) and high (SSP3) population growth scenario, in order to provide estimates of the number of people that may be exposed to such events at the end of the 21st century. We make use of an ensemble of regional climate projections from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. This ensemble comprises five different Earth System Model/Regional Climate Model (ESM/RCM) combinations with three different ESMs and two RCMs. We show that all five compound climate extremes will increase in frequency, with changes being greater under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. Moreover, populations exposed to these changes are greater under RCP8.5/SSP3, than RCP2.6/SSP1, increasing by 47‐ and 12‐fold, respectively, compared to the present‐day. Regions of Africa that are particularly exposed are West Africa, Central‐East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa. Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. This has important policy implications in relation to climate mitigation and adaptation.

We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

EURO-CORDEX is an international climate downscaling initiative that aims to provide high-resolution climate scenarios for Europe. Here an evaluation of the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble is presented. The study documents the performance of the individual models in representing the basic spatiotemporal patterns of the European climate for the period 1989–2008. Model evaluation focuses on near-surface air temperature and precipitation, and uses the E-OBS data set as observational reference. The ensemble consists of 17 simulations carried out by seven different models at grid resolutions of 12 km (nine experiments) and 50 km (eight experiments). Several performance metrics computed from monthly and seasonal mean values are used to assess model performance over eight subdomains of the European continent. Results are compared to those for the ERA40-driven ENSEMBLES simulations. The analysis confirms the ability of RCMs to capture the basic features of the European climate, including its variability in space and time. But it also identifies nonnegligible deficiencies of the simulations for selected metrics, regions and seasons. Seasonally and regionally averaged temperature biases are mostly smaller than 1.5 °C, while precipitation biases are typically located in the ±40% range. Some bias characteristics, such as a predominant cold and wet bias in most seasons and over most parts of Europe and a warm and dry summer bias over southern and southeastern Europe reflect common model biases. For seasonal mean quantities averaged over large European subdomains, no clear benefit of an increased spatial resolution (12 vs. 50 km) can be identified. The bias ranges of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble mostly correspond to those of the ENSEMBLES simulations, but some improvements in model performance can be identified (e.g., a less pronounced southern European warm summer bias). The temperature bias spread across different configurations of one individual model can be of a similar magnitude as the spread across different models, demonstrating a strong influence of the specific choices in physical parameterizations and experimental setup on model performance. Based on a number of simply reproducible metrics, the present study quantifies the currently achievable accuracy of RCMs used for regional climate simulations over Europe and provides a quality standard for future model developments.

REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied. When stages shift at different rates, the interval between stages may change resulting in overlaps, and as each stage is energetically demanding, these overlaps may have negative fitness consequences. We used long-term data of a population of European pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to investigate phenological shifts in three annual cycle stages: spring migration (arrival dates), breeding (egg-laying and hatching dates) and the onset of postbreeding moult. We found different advancements in the timing of breeding compared with moult (moult advances faster) and no advancement in arrival dates. To understand these differential shifts, we explored which temperatures best explain the year-to-year variation in the timing of these stages, and show that they respond differently to temperature increases in the Netherlands, causing the intervals between arrival and breeding and between breeding and moult to decrease. Next, we tested the fitness consequences of these shortened intervals. We found no effect on clutch size, but the probability of a fledged chick to recruit increased with a shorter arrival-breeding interval (earlier breeding). Finally, mark-recapture analyses did not detect an effect of shortened intervals on adult survival. Our results suggest that the advancement of breeding allows more time for fledgling development, increasing their probability to recruit. This may incur costs to other parts of the annual cycle, but, despite the shorter intervals, there was no effect on adult survival. Our results show that to fully understand the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to look carefully at different annual cycle stages, especially for organisms with complex cycles, such as migratory birds., (© 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Rising sea levels threaten coastal safety by increasing the risk of flooding. Coastal dunes provide a natural form of coastal protection. Understanding drivers that constrain early development of dunes is necessary to assess whether dune development may keep pace with sea-level rise. In this study, we explored to what extent salt stress experienced by dune building plant species constrains their spatial distribution at the Dutch sandy coast. We conducted a field transplantation experiment and a glasshouse experiment with two dune building grasses Ammophila arenaria and Elytrigia juncea . In the field, we measured salinity and monitored growth of transplanted grasses in four vegetation zones: (I) nonvegetated beach, (II) E. juncea occurring, (III) both species co-occurring, and (IV) A. arenaria dominant. In the glasshouse, we subjected the two species to six soil salinity treatments, with and without salt spray. We monitored biomass, photosynthesis, leaf sodium, and nutrient concentrations over a growing season. The vegetation zones were weakly associated with summer soil salinity; zone I and II were significantly more saline than zones III and IV. Ammophila arenaria performed equally (zone II) or better (zones III, IV) than E. juncea , suggesting soil salinity did not limit species performance. Both species showed severe winter mortality. In the glasshouse, A. arenaria biomass decreased linearly with soil salinity, presumably as a result of osmotic stress. Elytrigia juncea showed a nonlinear response to soil salinity with an optimum at 0.75% soil salinity. Our findings suggest that soil salinity stress either takes place in winter, or that development of vegetated dunes is less sensitive to soil salinity than hitherto expected.

This study was performed to systematically assess the prevalence, topography and prognostic impact of disseminated tumor cells (DTCs) in lymph nodes (LN) of patients with primary, regional and distant metastasis-free head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) who underwent resection with elective neck dissection. From the routinely processed resection specimen, we could prospectively analyze a total of 1.137 exactly mapped LNs of 50 pN0-HNSCC patients, classified as tumor free by routine histopathology. Three immunohistochemistry (IHC) assays using antibodies directed against CK5/14, a broad spectrum of CKs (1-8, 10, 14-16 and 19), and CD44v6, respectively, were applied on 4.190 LN sections to detect DTCs. The IHC results were correlated with clinicopathologic parameters and clinical follow-up data. We detected seven micrometastases (MM) in five patients and 31 DTCs in 12 patients. Overall, 15 (30%) patients were positive for DTCs or MMs. Strikingly, the anatomical distribution of LN affected with DTCs was not random, but was dependent on the lateralization of the primary tumor and clustered significantly most proximal to the primary tumor. None of the investigated patients developed loco-regional lymphatic or distant metastasis during the mean follow-up period of 71 months. Our results reveal clinically occult tumor cell dissemination as an early and frequent event in HNSCC. Considering that higher rates of recurrences in therapeutic LN dissection concepts have been reported than in elective neck dissection strategies, our DTC-data support to perform elective neck dissections, since they appear to be effective in preventing loco-regional lymphatic recurrence from LN DTCs or MMs., (© 2017 UICC.)

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

Background: Melatonin exerts multiple biological effects with potential impact on human diseases. This is underscored by genetic studies that demonstrated associations between melatonin receptor type 2 gene (MTNR1B) polymorphisms and characteristics of type 2 diabetes. We set out to test the hypothesis whether genetic variants at MTNR1B are also relevant for other disease phenotypes within the cardiovascular continuum. We thus investigated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of MTNR1B in relation to blood pressure (BP) and cardiac parameters in hypertensive patients., Methods: Patients (n=605, mean age 56.2±9.4years, 82.3% male) with arterial hypertension and cardiac ejection fraction (EF) ≥40% were studied. Cardiac parameters were assessed by echocardiography., Results: The cohort comprised subjects with coronary heart disease (73.1%) and myocardial infarction (48.1%) with a mean EF of 63.7±8.9%. Analysis of SNPs rs10830962, rs4753426, rs12804291, rs10830963, and rs3781638 revealed two haplotypes 1 and 2 with frequencies of 0.402 and 0.277, respectively. Carriers with haplotype 1 (CTCCC) showed compared to non-carriers a higher mean 24-hour systolic BP (difference BP: 2.4mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3 to 4.5mmHg, p=0.023). Haplotype 2 (GCCGA) was significantly related to EF with an absolute increase of 1.8% (CI: 0.45 to 3.14%) in carriers versus non-carriers (p=0.009)., Conclusion: Genetics of MTNR1B point to impact of the melatonin signalling pathway for BP and left ventricular function. This may support the importance of the melatonin system as a potential therapeutic target., (Copyright © 2013 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change., Results: Based on the simulation results, biogeophysical effects of the hypothetic potential afforestation may lead to cooler and moister conditions during summer in most parts of the temperate zone. The largest relative effects of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine, which is 15-20% of the climate change signal for temperature and more than 50% for precipitation. In northern Germany and France, potential afforestation may enhance the effects of emission change, resulting in more severe heavy precipitation events. The probability of dry days and warm temperature extremes would decrease., Conclusions: Large contiguous forest blocks can have distinctive biogeophysical effect on the climate on regional and local scale. In certain regions of the temperate zone, climate change signal due to greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by afforestation due to the dominant evaporative cooling effect during summer. Results of this case study with a hypothetical land cover change can contribute to the assessment of the role of forests in adapting to climate change. Thus they can build an important basis of the future forest policy.

A laboratory experiment was carried out to measure volatilisation fluxes of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from sewage sludge-amended soils. The most commonly practised methods of applying sludge to agricultural land in the UK, namely, surface application, ploughing in to soil and subsurface injection, were simulated inside glass experimental chambers using an anaerobically digested sludge and a sandy loam soil. Humidified air was blown over the surface of the soil/sludge in the chambers for a period of 32 days, in order to sample a sufficient air volume to detect the volatilising PCBs. The resulting PCB volatilisation fluxes from the different sludge application methods were quantified and compared. Volatilisation fluxes of individual congeners were generally highest for the surface sludge (1-cm depth) application and slightly lower for the plough layer (5-cm depth) application. Fluxes from the subsurface layer of sludge (5-cm depth) were only quantified for the lightest congeners near to the end of the experimental run-time. Results from a multiple regression analysis showed that volatilisation fluxes of PCBs from the surface application are highly dependent on both the sludge concentration and the log of the octanol-air partition coefficient (K(OA)). A well-known soil volatilisation model, developed by Jury et al., was adapted and used to predict fluxes for the different sludge application methods during the experiment. The model predicted volatilisation fluxes that were reasonably comparable to measured fluxes for some congeners, but for others predicted fluxes that were more than an order of magnitude lower than measured fluxes. The model predicted similar loss kinetics to those observed in the experiment. Possible reasons for the dissimilarity between measured and predicted fluxes include inaccuracies in model input parameters and the fact that the models were not developed for predicting fluxes from sludge-amended soils.

Developmental expression of a 23 kDa jasmonate-induced protein (JIP-23) of barley leaves (Hordeum vulgare cv. Salome) was studied by measuring the time-dependent accumulation of transcript and protein during germination. Tissue-specific expression of JIP-23 was analyzed immunocytochemically and by in situ hybridizations, respectively. During seed germination JIP-23 mRNA was found to accumulate transiently with a maximum at 32 h, whereas the protein was steadily detectable after the onset of expression. The occurrence of new isoforms of JIP-23 during germination in comparison to jasmonate-treated leaves suggests, that the JIP-23 gene family of barley is able to express different subsets of isoforms dependent on the developmental stage. JIP-23 and its transcript were found mainly in the scutellum, the scutellar nodule and in lower parts of the primary leaf of 6 days old seedings. All these tissues exhibited high levels of endogenous jasmonates. In situ hybridization revealed specific accumulation of JIP-23 mRNA in companion cells of the phloem in the nodule plate of the scutellum. In accordance with that, JIP-23 was detected immunocytochemically in phloem cells of the root as well as of the scutellar nodule and in parenchymatic cells of the scutellum. The cell type-specific occurrence of JIP-23 was restricted to cells, which are known to be highly stressed osmotically by active solute transport. This observation suggests, that the expression of this protein might be a response to osmotic stress during development.

Four kinds of ichthyosiform dermatoses have been described. Only lamellar ichthyosis or ichthyosis congenita is associated with the development of ectropion and subsequent eye symptoms. Conservative treatments have been tried but surgical correction of the ectropion was ultimately required for symptomatic relief. Autografts have been used successfully, provided an available donor site can be found. Grafts taken from the arm, eyelids, postauricular skin, and groin have been used with success. An uncircumcised youth with total body involvement from ichthyosis developed bilateral upper and lower ectropion. The penile foreskin was the only possible suitable donor site because it seemed unaffected by the disease. A circumcision was performed and the foreskin divided into four separate full-thickness skin graft triangles to treat the four-lid ectropion. There was successful resolution of the eye symptoms and a watertight closure. To our knowledge, this is a unique case in which penile foreskin has been used to correct cicatricial ectropion.