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Despite their ubiquitous nature across a wide range of creative domains, it remains unclear if there is any regularity underlying the beginning of successful periods in a career. Here, the authors develop computational methods to trace the career outputs of artists, film directors, and scientists and explore how they move in their creative space along their career trajectory.

We present a synthetic prediction market whose agent purchase logic is defined using a sigmoid transformation of a convex semi-algebraic set defined in feature space. Asset prices are determined by a logarithmic scoring market rule. Time varying asset prices affect the structure of the semi-algebraic sets leading to time-varying agent purchase rules. We show that under certain assumptions on the underlying geometry, the resulting synthetic prediction market can be used to arbitrarily closely approximate a binary function defined on a set of input data. We also provide sufficient conditions for market convergence and show that under certain instances markets can exhibit limit cycles in asset spot price. We provide an evolutionary algorithm for training agent parameters to allow a market to model the distribution of a given data set and illustrate the market approximation using three open source data sets. Results are compared to standard machine learning methods.

Subject categories of scholarly papers generally refer to the knowledge domain(s) to which the papers belong, examples being computer science or physics. Subject category classification is a prerequisite for bibliometric studies, organizing scientific publications for domain knowledge extraction, and facilitating faceted searches for digital library search engines. Unfortunately, many academic papers do not have such information as part of their metadata. Most existing methods for solving this task focus on unsupervised learning that often relies on citation networks. However, a complete list of papers citing the current paper may not be readily available. In particular, new papers that have few or no citations cannot be classified using such methods. Here, we propose a deep attentive neural network (DANN) that classifies scholarly papers using only their abstracts. The network is trained using nine million abstracts from Web of Science (WoS). We also use the WoS schema that covers 104 subject categories. The proposed network consists of two bi-directional recurrent neural networks followed by an attention layer. We compare our model against baselines by varying the architecture and text representation. Our best model achieves micro-F1 measure of 0.76 with F1 of individual subject categories ranging from 0.50 to 0.95. The results showed the importance of retraining word embedding models to maximize the vocabulary overlap and the effectiveness of the attention mechanism. The combination of word vectors with TFIDF outperforms character and sentence level embedding models. We discuss imbalanced samples and overlapping categories and suggest possible strategies for mitigation. We also determine the subject category distribution in CiteSeerX by classifying a random sample of one million academic papers.

Recently, there has been a resurgence of formal language theory in deep learning research. However, most research focused on the more practical problems of attempting to represent symbolic knowledge by machine learning. In contrast, there has been limited research on exploring the fundamental connection between them. To obtain a better understanding of the internal structures of regular grammars and their corresponding complexity, we focus on categorizing regular grammars by using both theoretical analysis and empirical evidence. Specifically, motivated by the concentric ring representation, we relaxed the original order information and introduced an entropy metric for describing the complexity of different regular grammars. Based on the entropy metric, we categorized regular grammars into three disjoint subclasses: the polynomial, exponential and proportional classes. In addition, several classification theorems are provided for different representations of regular grammars. Our analysis was validated by examining the process of learning grammars with multiple recurrent neural networks. Our results show that as expected more complex grammars are generally more difficult to learn.