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One of landscape ecology's main goals is to unveil how biodiversity is impacted by habitat transformation. However, the discipline suffers from significant context dependency in observed spatial and temporal trends, hindering progress towards understanding the mechanisms driving species declines and preventing the development of accurate estimates of future biodiversity change. Here, we discuss recent evidence that populations' and species' responses to habitat change at the landscape scale are modulated by factors and processes occurring at macroecological scales, such as historical disturbance rates, distance to geographic range edges, and climatic suitability. We suggest that placing landscape ecology studies in a macroecological lens will help to explain seemingly inconsistent results and will ultimately create better predictive models to help mitigate the biodiversity crisis.

There has been limited characterisation of bat-borne coronaviruses in Europe. Here, we screened for coronaviruses in 48 faecal samples from 16 of the 17 bat species breeding in the UK, collected through a bat rehabilitation and conservationist network. We recovered nine (two novel) complete genomes across six bat species: four alphacoronaviruses, a MERS-related betacoronavirus, and four closely related sarbecoviruses. We demonstrate that at least one of these sarbecoviruses can bind and use the human ACE2 receptor for infecting human cells, albeit suboptimally. Additionally, the spike proteins of these sarbecoviruses possess an R-A-K-Q motif, which lies only one nucleotide mutation away from a furin cleavage site (FCS) that enhances infectivity in other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. However, mutating this motif to an FCS does not enable spike cleavage. Overall, while UK sarbecoviruses would require further molecular adaptations to infect humans, their zoonotic risk is unknown and warrants closer surveillance.

The question of whether migratory birds track a specific climatic niche by seasonal movements has important implications for understanding the evolution of migration, the factors affecting species' distributions, and the responses of migrants to climate change. Despite much research, previous studies of bird migration have produced mixed results. However, whether migrants track climate is only one half of the question, the other being why residents remain in the same geographic range year‐round. We provide a literature overview and test the hypothesis of seasonal niche tracking by evaluating seasonal climatic niche overlap across 437 migratory and resident species from eight clades of passerine birds. Seasonal climatic niches were based on a new global dataset of breeding and nonbreeding ranges. Overlap between climatic niches was quantified using ordination methods. We compared niche overlap of migratory species to two null expectations, (a) a scenario in which they do not migrate and (b) in comparison with the overlap experienced by closely related resident species, while controlling for breeding location and range size. Partly in accordance with the hypothesis of niche tracking, we found that the overlap of breeding versus nonbreeding climatic conditions in migratory species was greater than the overlap they would experience if they did not migrate. However, this was only true for migrants breeding outside the tropics and only relative to the overlap species would experience if they stayed in the breeding range year‐round. In contrast to the hypothesis of niche tracking, migratory species experienced lower seasonal climatic niche overlap than resident species, with significant differences between tropical and nontropical species. Our study suggests that in seasonal nontropical environments migration away from the breeding range may serve to avoid seasonally harsh climate; however, different factors may drive seasonal movements in the climatically more stable tropical regions., By examining seasonal niche overlap in migratory and resident bird species, we show that niche tracking varies depending on (a) the perspective in which the question was examined (i.e., from the perspective of the individual migrant or in comparison with resident species, (b) the direction of migration (i.e., whether the species is moving from the breeding or non‐breeding range), and (c) geographic location. Altogether, these results suggest that the drivers of migration vary depending on direction of migration as well as geographically, offering explanations for the mixed results from previous studies.

Natural habitats are being impacted by human pressures at an alarming rate. Monitoring these ecosystem-level changes often requires labor-intensive surveys that are unable to detect rapid or unanticipated environmental changes. Here we have developed a generalizable, data-driven solution to this challenge using eco-acoustic data. We exploited a convolutional neural network to embed soundscapes from a variety of ecosystems into a common acoustic space. In both supervised and unsupervised modes, this allowed us to accurately quantify variation in habitat quality across space and in biodiversity through time. On the scale of seconds, we learned a typical soundscape model that allowed automatic identification of anomalous sounds in playback experiments, providing a potential route for real-time automated detection of irregular environmental behavior including illegal logging and hunting. Our highly generalizable approach, and the common set of features, will enable scientists to unlock previously hidden insights from acoustic data and offers promise as a backbone technology for global collaborative autonomous ecosystem monitoring efforts.

Acoustic indices derived from environmental soundscape recordings are being used to monitor ecosystem health and vocal animal biodiversity. Soundscape data can quickly become very expensive and difficult to manage, so data compression or temporal down‐sampling are sometimes employed to reduce data storage and transmission costs. These parameters vary widely between experiments, with the consequences of this variation remaining mostly unknown.We analyse field recordings from North‐Eastern Borneo across a gradient of historical land use. We quantify the impact of experimental parameters (MP3 compression, recording length and temporal subsetting) on soundscape descriptors (Analytical Indices and a convolutional neural net derived AudioSet Fingerprint). Both descriptor types were tested for their robustness to parameter alteration and their usability in a soundscape classification task.We find that compression and recording length both drive considerable variation in calculated index values. However, we find that the effects of this variation and temporal subsetting on the performance of classification models is minor: performance is much more strongly determined by acoustic index choice, with Audioset fingerprinting offering substantially greater (12%–16%) levels of classifier accuracy, precision and recall.We advise using the AudioSet Fingerprint in soundscape analysis, finding superior and consistent performance even on small pools of data. If data storage is a bottleneck to a study, we recommend Variable Bit Rate encoded compression (quality = 0) to reduce file size to 23% file size without affecting most Analytical Index values. The AudioSet Fingerprint can be compressed further to a Constant Bit Rate encoding of 64 kb/s (8% file size) without any detectable effect. These recommendations allow the efficient use of restricted data storage whilst permitting comparability of results between different studies., Soundscapes were recorded from different forest structures in Malaysian Borneo. Data collection variation was simulated, and all data groups were analyzed via usual acoustic indices and a CNN‐derived AudioSet Fingerprint. The effect of variation in data collection was compared between the two types of soundscape descriptor, finding the AudioSet Fingerprint to be a stronger and more robust descriptor of soundscapes.

Vulnerability to habitat fragmentation Habitat fragmentation caused by human activities has consequences for the distribution and movement of organisms. Betts et al. present a global analysis of how exposure to habitat fragmentation affects the composition of ecological communities (see the Perspective by Hargreaves). In a dataset consisting of 4489 animal species, regions that historically experienced little disturbance tended to harbor a higher proportion of species vulnerable to fragmentation. Species in more frequently disturbed regions were more resilient. High-latitude areas historically experienced more disturbance and harbor more resilient species, which suggests that extinction has removed fragmentation-sensitive species. Thus, conservation efforts to limit fragmentation are particularly important in the tropics. Science , this issue p. 1236 ; see also p. 1196

Natural habitats are being impacted by human pressures at an alarming rate. Monitoring these ecosystem-level changes often requires labour-intensive surveys that are unable to detect rapid or unanticipated environmental changes. Here we developed a generalisable, data-driven solution to this challenge using eco-acoustic data. We exploited a convolutional neural network to embed ecosystem soundscapes from a wide variety of biomes into a common acoustic space. In both supervised and unsupervised modes, this allowed us to accurately quantify variation in habitat quality across space and in biodiversity through time. On the scale of seconds, we learned a typical soundscape model that allowed automatic identification of anomalous sounds in playback experiments, paving the way for real-time detection of irregular environmental behaviour including illegal activity. Our highly generalisable approach, and the common set of features, will enable scientists to unlock previously hidden insights from eco-acoustic data and offers promise as a backbone technology for global collaborative autonomous ecosystem monitoring efforts.

The distributions of amphibians, birds and mammals have underpinned global and local conservation priorities, and have been fundamental to our understanding of the determinants of global biodiversity. In contrast, the global distributions of reptiles, representing a third of terrestrial vertebrate diversity, have been unavailable. This prevented the incorporation of reptiles into conservation planning and biased our understanding of the underlying processes governing global vertebrate biodiversity. Here, we present and analyse the global distribution of 10,064 reptile species (99% of extant terrestrial species). We show that richness patterns of the other three tetrapod classes are good spatial surrogates for species richness of all reptiles combined and of snakes, but characterize diversity patterns of lizards and turtles poorly. Hotspots of total and endemic lizard richness overlap very little with those of other taxa. Moreover, existing protected areas, sites of biodiversity significance and global conservation schemes represent birds and mammals better than reptiles. We show that additional conservation actions are needed to effectively protect reptiles, particularly lizards and turtles. Adding reptile knowledge to a global complementarity conservation priority scheme identifies many locations that consequently become important. Notably, investing resources in some of the world’s arid, grassland and savannah habitats might be necessary to represent all terrestrial vertebrates efficiently.

One in 6 species (13,465 species) on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is classified as data deficient due to lack of information on their taxonomy, population status, or impact of threats. Despite the chance that many are at high risk of extinction, data-deficient species are typically excluded from global and local conservation priorities, as well as funding schemes. The number of data-deficient species will greatly increase as the IUCN Red List becomes more inclusive of poorly known and speciose groups. A strategic approach is urgently needed to enhance the conservation value of data-deficient assessments. To develop this, we reviewed 2879 data-deficient assessments in 6 animal groups and identified 8 main justifications for assigning data-deficient status (type series, few records, old records, uncertain provenance, uncertain population status or distribution, uncertain threats, taxonomic uncertainty, and new species). Assigning a consistent set of justification tags (i.e., consistent assignment to assessment justifications) to species classified as data deficient is a simple way to achieve more strategic assessments. Such tags would clarify the causes of data deficiency; facilitate the prediction of extinction risk; facilitate comparisons of data deficiency among taxonomic groups; and help prioritize species for reassessment. With renewed efforts, it could be straightforward to prevent thousands of data-deficient species slipping unnoticed toward extinction.

It is generally assumed that deforestation affects a species consistently across space, however populations near their geographic range edge may exist at their niche limits and therefore be more sensitive to disturbance. We found that both within and across Atlantic Forest bird species, populations are more sensitive to deforestation when near their range edge. In fact, the negative effects of deforestation on bird occurrences switched to positive in the range core (>829 km), in line with Ellenberg’s rule. We show that the proportion of populations at their range core and edge varies across Brazil, suggesting deforestation effects on communities, and hence the most appropriate conservation action, also vary geographically. Analysing responses of 378 bird species to deforestation in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, the authors show that sensitivity to habitat loss is dependent on where a population is located within its range.

Explaining the large-scale diversity of soil organisms that drive biogeochemical processes—and their responses to environmental change—is critical. However, identifying consistent drivers of belowground diversity and abundance for some soil organisms at large spatial scales remains problematic. Here we investigate a major guild, the ectomycorrhizal fungi, across European forests at a spatial scale and resolution that is—to our knowledge—unprecedented, to explore key biotic and abiotic predictors of ectomycorrhizal diversity and to identify dominant responses and thresholds for change across complex environmental gradients. We show the effect of 38 host, environment, climate and geographical variables on ectomycorrhizal diversity, and define thresholds of community change for key variables. We quantify host specificity and reveal plasticity in functional traits involved in soil foraging across gradients. We conclude that environmental and host factors explain most of the variation in ectomycorrhizal diversity, that the environmental thresholds used as major ecosystem assessment tools need adjustment and that the importance of belowground specificity and plasticity has previously been underappreciated.

Automated methods of monitoring ecosystems provide a cost-effective way to track changes in natural system’s dynamics across temporal and spatial scales. However, methods of recording and storing data captured from the field still require significant manual effort.Here we introduce an open source, inexpensive, fully autonomous ecosystem monitoring unit for capturing and remotely transmitting continuous data streams from field sites over long time-periods. We provide a modular software framework for deploying various sensors, together with implementations to demonstrate proof of concept for continuous audio monitoring and time-lapse photography.We show how our system can outperform comparable technologies for fractions of the cost, provided a local mobile network link is available. The system is robust to unreliable network signals and has been shown to function in extreme environmental conditions, such as in the tropical rainforests of Sabah, Borneo.We provide full details on how to assemble the hardware, and the open-source software. Paired with appropriate automated analysis techniques, this system could provide spatially dense, near real-time, continuous insights into ecosystem and biodiversity dynamics at a low cost.

1. Cost-effective reduction of uncertainty in global biodiversity indicators is a central goal of conservation. Comprising a sixth of the 74,000+ species currently on the IUCN Red List, Data Deficient species contribute to considerable uncertainty in estimates of extinction risk. Estimating levels of risk in Data Deficient species will require large resources given the costs of surveys and Red List assessments. Predicting extinction risk from species traits and geographical information could provide a cheaper approach for determining the proportion of Data Deficient species at risk of extinction. 2. We use double sampling theory to compare the cost-effectiveness of predictive models and IUCN Red List assessments for estimating risk levels in Data Deficient terrestrial mammals, amphibians, reptiles and crayfish. For each group, we calibrate Machine Learning models of extinction risk on species of known conservation status, and assess their cost and reliability relative to field surveys followed by Red List assessments. 3. We show that regardless of model type used or species group examined, it is always more cost-effective to determine the conservation status of all species with models and assess a small proportion of species with IUCN criteria (double sampling), rather than spend the same resources on field surveys and Red List assessments alone (single sampling). 4. We estimate that surveying and re-assessing all Data Deficient species currently listed on the IUCN Red List (12,206 species) with IUCN criteria would cost a minimum of US $323 million. Double sampling reduces the cost of determining the proportion of Data Deficient species at risk of extinction by up to 68%, because less than 6% of Data Deficient species would need to be surveyed and assessed with IUCN criteria. 5. Synthesis and applications. Double sampling with models cost-effectively estimates extinction risk levels in poorly-known species, and can be used to reduce the impact of uncertainty in the Red List and Red List Index. We provide recommendations for uptake by managers and a sampling planner spreadsheet. Double sampling could be applied more widely in ecology and conservation to formally compare the cost-effectiveness of sampling methods differing in cost and reliability.

Species’ traits have been widely championed as the key to predicting which species are most threatened by habitat loss, yet previous work has failed to detect trends that are consistent enough to guide large-scale conservation and management. Here we explore whether traits and environmental variables predict species sensitivity to habitat loss across two datasets generated by independent avifaunal studies in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, both of which detected a similar assemblage of species, and similar species-specific responses to habitat change, across an overlapping sample of sites. Specifically, we tested whether 25 distributional, climatic, ecological, behavioral and morphological variables predict sensitivity to habitat loss among 196 bird species, both within and across studies, and when data were analysed as occurrence or abundance. We found that 4-9 variables showed high explanatory power within a single study or dataset, but none performed as strong predictors across all datasets. Our results demonstrate that the use of species traits to predict sensitivity to anthropogenic habitat loss can produce predictions that are species- and site-specific and not scalable to whole regions or biomes, and thus should be used with caution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

At present, few studies exist that consider the relationship between species interactions and key environmental variables, with the added influence of offshore marine renewable energy technologies. Video footage and ADCP survey techniques were used, to examine the presence of fish and velocity flow rates within the vicinity of a deployed tidal energy device. Pilot trials were conducted across 15 day temporal periods, during the summer months of 2009 and 2010. Five random photographic stills were taken from the video footage at hourly intervals throughout each trial day to estimate species presence and abundance. Mean abundance then was compared between hour and day temporal scales and their relationship with velocity rate, for both years. Pollack, Pollachius pollachius was observed aggregating in shoals temporarily round the deployed device, with larger abundance observed in 2009 than 2010. No other species were identified from the surveys. Pollack abundance was significantly associated to velocity rate for both trial years. Increased abundance was related to a reduction in velocity rate for both years, with shoals potentially using the device for temporary protection or feeding strategies. Responses to tidal velocity also differed between years, with 2009 abundances ranging from 0 to 1.2 m/s and 2010 abundances between 0.5 and 1.7 m/s. Overall this preliminary study outlined a potentially useful approach to investigate species responses with new anthropogenic activities in the marine environment.

There is little appreciation of the level of extinction risk faced by one-sixth of the over 65,000 species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Determining the status of these data-deficient (DD) species is essential to developing an accurate picture of global biodiversity and identifying potentially threatened DD species. To address this knowledge gap, we used predictive models incorporating species' life history, geography, and threat information to predict the conservation status of DD terrestrial mammals. We constructed the models with 7 machine learning (ML) tools trained on species of known status. The resultant models showed very high species classification accuracy (up to 92%) and ability to correctly identify centers of threatened species richness. Applying the best model to DD species, we predicted 313 of 493 DD species (64%) to be at risk of extinction, which increases the estimated proportion of threatened terrestrial mammals from 22% to 27%. Regions predicted to contain large numbers of threatened DD species are already conservation priorities, but species in these areas show considerably higher levels of risk than previously recognized. We conclude that unless directly targeted for monitoring, species classified as DD are likely to go extinct without notice. Taking into account information on DD species may therefore help alleviate data gaps in biodiversity indicators and conserve poorly known biodiversity.

The addition of man-made structures to the marine environment is known to increase the physical complexity of the seafloor, which can influence benthic species community patterns and habitat structure. However, knowledge of how deployed tidal energy device structures influence benthic communities is currently lacking. Here we examined species biodiversity, composition and habitat type surrounding a tidal energy device within the European Marine Energy Centre test site, Orkney. Commercial fishing and towed video camera techniques were used over three temporal periods, from 2009 to 2010. Our results showed increased species biodiversity and compositional differences within the device site, compared to a control site. Both sites largely comprised of crustacean species, omnivore or predatory feeding regimes and marine tide-swept EUNIS habitat types, which varied over the time. We conclude that the device could act as a localised artificial reef structure, but that further in-depth investigations are required.

Correction to: Nature Ecology & Evolution https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0889-z, published online 06 May 2019.

Given the heavy reliance placed on and investment in protected areas for biological conservation, there has been much debate as to how effective these are in representing biodiversity features within their boundaries. The majority of studies addressing this issue have been conducted on a regional or national basis, precluding a broad picture of patterns of representation at the species level. We present a global assessment of the representation of the terrestrial geographic ranges of complete taxonomic groups: all known extant amphibians, birds and mammals (20,736 species) within the current global system of protected areas. We conclude that it is necessary substantially to improve the levels of coverage of the geographic ranges of the majority of species, even the widespread ones. This is particularly true for rare species, which might be assumed to be foci for protected area systems. To improve on the low levels of coverage of vertebrate ranges attained by the existing areas, key regions should be targeted, but heavy reliance will also have to be placed on approaches to sustaining populations in the wider, unprotected landscape.

A recent paper by Mori [1] states the need for a unification of studies of ‘engineering’ and ‘ecological’ frameworks of resilience. Engineering resilience focuses on the capacity of a system to recover to equilibrium following some kind of perturbation, while ecological resilience (ER) explicitly recognizes multiple stable states and the capacity for systems to resist ‘regime shifts’ between alternative states. We find Mori's argument somewhat surprising given the number of recent biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (B-EF) studies that incorporate aspects of both resistance and recovery (e.g., see references in [2,3]).

Predation is a complex behavioural process and it is only through identifying the different factors influencing each stage that is it possible to understand the evolutionary processes driving the arms race between predators and prey. Using a long-term data set from Serengeti National Park in Tanzania, we investigated the importance of demographic, environmental, and prey-based factors in influencing the success of hunt stages of a stalking predator, the cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus . The chase and overall hunting success were influenced by the age of the cheetah and prey size, while the effect of habitat features could only be seen in the stalk. Whether a stalk turned into a chase was dependent on prey size, and in the dry season on proximity to rivers. Contrary to expectation, the hunger level of the cheetah, the presence of cubs, and the type of habitat where the hunt took place had no effect on hunting success. Different factors thus affect the success of individual hunt stages, and the predation risk of prey is influenced not only by its size, the habitat it is in, and the age of the its predator, but also by hunt stage. This reveals an increased complexity of predation risk that has implications for predator and prey dynamics, especially in systems with multiple predator and prey species.

A.M.B. is supported by a post-doctoral fellowship (SFRH/BPD/40387/2007) from the Portuguese Foundation for Scienceand Technology (FCT), co-financed by the European Social Fund. A.L.M. is supported by a project (CGL2009-11316/BOS) from the Ministry of Science and Innovation (Spain) and the European Regional Development Fund. The ‘Rui Nabeiro’ Biodiversity Chair is financed by Delta Cafe´s and an FCT project (PTDC/AAC-AMB/098163/2008).

Summary 1. Beta diversity, that is, the variation in species composition among sites, can be the result of species replacement between sites (turnover) and species loss from site to site (nestedness). 2. We present betapart, an R package for computing total dissimilarity as Sorensen or Jaccard indices, as well as their respective turnover and nestedness components. 3. betapart allows the assessment of spatial patterns of beta diversity using multiple-site dissimilarity measures accounting for compositional heterogeneity across several sites or pairwise measures providing distance matrices accounting for the multivariate structure of dissimilarity. 4. betapart also allows computing patterns of temporal difference in assemblage composition, and its turnover and nestedness components. 5. Several example analyses are shown, using the data included in the package, to illustrate the relevance of separating the turnover and nestedness components of beta diversity to infer different mechanisms behind biodiversity patterns.

Aim: To investigate the impact of different treatments of the IUCN Data Deficient (DD) category on taxonomic and geographical patterns of extinction risk in crayfish, freshwater crabs and dragonflies. Location: Global. Methods: We used contingency tables to evaluate taxonomic and geographical selectivity of data deficiency and extinction risk for three invertebrate taxonomic groups (crayfish, dragonflies and damselflies, and freshwater crabs) based on their IUCN Red List status. We investigated differences in patterns of data deficiency and extinction risk among taxonomic families, geographical realms and taxonomic families within geographical realms for each of the three groups. At each level, we evaluated the impact of uncertainty conferred by the conservation status of DD species on extinction risk patterns exhibited by that group. We evaluated three scenarios: excluding DD species, treating all DD species as non-threatened and treating all DD species as threatened. Results: At the global scale, DD species were taxonomically non-randomly distributed in freshwater crabs and dragonflies, and geographically non-randomly distributed in all three taxonomic groups. Although the presence of under- or over-threatened families and biogeographical realms was generally unchanging across scenarios, the strength of taxonomic and geographical selectivity of extinction risk varied. There was little consistent evidence for taxonomic selectivity of extinction risk at sub-global scales in freshwater crabs and dragonflies, either among biogeographical realms or among scenarios. Main conclusions: Global patterns of taxonomic selectivity and geographical selectivity were generally consistent with one another and robust to different treatments of DD species. However, sub-global scale conservation prioritization from these types of data sets will require increased investment to make accurate decisions. Given the current levels of data uncertainty, the relative importance of biological characteristics and threatening processes in driving extinctions in freshwater invertebrates cannot be easily determined. We recommend that DD species should be given high research priority to determine their true status. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The primary explanation for the latitudinal gradient in species diversity must lie in why species fail to expand ranges across different climatic regimes. Theories of species gradients based in niche conservatism assume that whole clades are confined to particular climatic regimes because the traits they share limit adaptation to alternative regimes. We assess these theories in an analysis of the twofold decline in bird species richness along the Himalayas from the southeast to the northwest. The presence of fewer species in the northwest is entirely due to a steep decline in the number of forest species; species occupying more open habitats show a reversed gradient. Forest species numbers are exceptionally high at midelevations (1,000-2,000 m) in the southeast, which experience a warm, wet climate not present in the northwest, and a high proportion of these species fail to expand their range to the northwest. Despite this, many species do have populations or close relatives that straddle different climatic regimes along altitudinal gradients and/or the regional gradient, implying that climate-based niche conservatism per se does not strongly constrain range limits. We argue that climate- and competition-mediated resource distributions are important in setting northerly range limits and show that one measure of forest resources (foliage density) is lower in the northwest.

Species–area relationships (SARs) have mostly been treated from an ecological perspective, focusing on immigration, local extinction and resource-based limits to species coexistence. However, a full understanding across large regions is impossible without also considering speciation and global extinction. Rates of both speciation and extinction are known to be strongly affected by area and thus should contribute to spatial patterns of diversity. Here, we explore how variation in diversification rates and ecologically mediated diversity limits among regions of different sizes can result in the formation of SARs. We explain how this area-related variation in diversification can be caused by either the direct effects of area or the effects of factors that are highly correlated with area, such as habitat diversity and population size. We also review environmental, clade-specific and historical factors that affect diversification and diversity limits but are not highly correlated with region area, and thus are likely to cause scatter in observed SARs. We present new analyses using data on the distributions, ages and traits of mammalian species to illustrate these mechanisms; in doing so we provide an integrated perspective on the evolutionary processes shaping SARs.

Aim Species geographic ranges are the ‘fundamental units’ of macroecology. Range size is a major correlate of extinction risk in many groups, and is also critical in studies of biotic responses to climate change. Despite this, there is a lack of studies exploring the role of environmental, historical and anthropogenic processes in determining large-scale patterns in range size. We perform the first global analysis of putative drivers of range size variation in any group, choosing amphibians as our study taxon. Our aims are to disentangle the many hypothesized causes of range size variation and evaluate support for ‘Rapoport's rule’, the observation that range size correlates with latitude. Location Global. Methods We develop a global map of gridded median range size using the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) distribution maps. From this we perform spatial and non-spatial regressions to explore relationships between range size and nine hypothesized variables in six biogeographic realms. We use information-theoretic model selection to compare multiple competing variables, simultaneously evaluating the relative support for each one. Results Current climate – environmental water and energy, and temperature seasonality – is consistently highly ranked in spatial and non-spatial analyses. Human impacts and other environmental measures (topographic and landscape complexity, effective area, climate extremes) show mixed support, and glacial history is consistently unimportant. Our findings add further evidence to the view that Rapoport's rule is a regional, not global, phenomenon. Main conclusions The primary importance of temperature seasonality may explain why Rapoport's rule is largely restricted to northern latitudes, as this is where seasonality is most pronounced. More generally, the dominance of contemporary climate in our analyses (even when accounting for space) has stark implications for the future status of amphibians. Changes in climate will almost certainly interact with the anthropogenic processes already threatening a third of amphibians globally, with the effects being most keenly felt by species with a restricted range.

Large complete species-level molecular phylogenies can provide the most direct information about the macroevolutionary history of clades having poor fossil records. However, extinction will ultimately erode evidence of pulses of rapid speciation in the deep past. Assessment of how well, and for how long, phylogenies retain the signature of such pulses has hitherto been based on a—probably untenable—model of ongoing diversity-independent diversification. Here, we develop two new tests for changes in diversification ‘rules’ and evaluate their power to detect sudden increases in equilibrium diversity in clades simulated with diversity-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Pulses of diversification are only detected easily if they occurred recently and if the rate of species turnover at equilibrium is low; rates reported for fossil mammals suggest that the power to detect a doubling of species diversity falls to 50 per cent after less than 50 Myr even with a perfect phylogeny of extant species. Extinction does eventually draw a veil over past dynamics, suggesting that some questions are beyond the limits of inference, but sudden clade-wide pulses of speciation can be detected after many millions of years, even when overall diversity is constrained. Applying our methods to existing phylogenies of mammals and angiosperms identifies intervals of elevated diversification in each.

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.

Change history: In the HTML version of this Article, author 'Filipa Cox' had no affiliation in the author list, although she was correctly associated with affiliation 3 in the PDF. In addition, the blue circles for 'oak' were missing from Extended Data Fig. 1. These errors have been corrected online.

The environmental factors limiting species' ranges across broad geographic and taxonomic scales are central to questions regarding the geographic variation in biodiversity and impacts of environmental change. However, our understanding remains relatively limited owing to the small-scale, correlative nature of most previous analyses. In this study, we provide a global test of the environmental determinants of range limits in birds, using both stochastic and environmentally deterministic models of range expansion to simulate spatial patterns in the shape of species' distributions. We show that spatial variation in range shape can be well explained by the action of a few key climatic variables in limiting range expansion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these patterns cannot be explained by random processes alone. In addition, our study also identifies important differences in the factors constraining range expansion between biogeographic realms and between widespread and rare species. Although temperature was the principal climatic determinant of range shape at a global scale, its effects were driven primarily by widespread species, with the ranges of rare taxa better predicted by gradients in precipitation or topography. These key results were robust with respect to the index used to quantify range shape. Our analysis helps resolve long running debates regarding the role of environmentally deterministic and stochastic processes in structuring biodiversity and extends our understanding of the factors limiting species' ranges and the response of broad scale biodiversity patterns to environmental change.

Deforestation is a main driver of climate change and biodiversity loss. An incentive mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Here we use the best available global data sets on terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage to map and investigate potential synergies between carbon and biodiversity-oriented conservation. A strong association (rS= 0.82) between carbon stocks and species richness suggests that such synergies would be high, but unevenly distributed. Many areas of high value for biodiversity could be protected by carbon-based conservation, while others could benefit from complementary funding arising from their carbon content. Some high-biodiversity regions, however, would not benefit from carbon-focused conservation, and could become under increased pressure if REDD is implemented. Our results suggest that additional gains for biodiversity conservation are possible, without compromising the effectiveness for climate change mitigation, if REDD takes biodiversity distribution into account.

Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species' fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of biodiversity. This article starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian diversity patterns and how they arose. Recent diversification rates and standing diversity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cradles of diversity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinction risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, ecological differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for diversity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy.

Aim Using a global data base of the distribution of extant bird species, we examine the evidence for spatial variation in the evolutionary origins of contemporary avian diversity. In particular, we assess the possible role of the timing of mountain uplift in promoting diversification in different regions. Location Global. Methods We mapped the distribution of avian richness at four taxonomic levels on an equal-area 1° grid. We examined the relationships between richness at successive taxonomic levels (e.g. species richness vs. genus richness). We mapped the residuals from linear regressions of these relationships to identify areas that are exceptional in the number of lower taxa relative to the number of higher taxa. We use generalized least squares models to test the influence of elevation range and temperature on lower-taxon richness relative to higher-taxon richness. Results Peaks of species richness in the Neotropics were congruent with patterns of generic richness, whilst peaks in Australia and the Himalayas were congruent with patterns of both genus and family richness. Hotspots in the Afrotropics did not reflect higher-taxon patterns. Regional differences in the relationship between richness at successive taxonomic levels revealed variation in patterns of taxon co-occurrence. Species and genus co-occurrence was positively associated with elevational range across much of the world. Taxon occurrence in the Neotropics was associated with a positive interaction between elevational range and temperature. Conclusions These results demonstrate that contemporary patterns of richness show different associations with higher-taxon richness in different regions, which implies that the timing of historical effects on these contemporary patterns varies across regions. We suggest that this is due to dispersal limitation and phylogenetic constraints on physiological tolerance limits promoting diversification. We speculate that diversification rates respond to long-term changes in the Earth's topography, and that the role of tropical mountain ranges is implicated as a correlate of contemporary diversity, and a source of diversification across avian evolutionary history.

Sympatric speciation is now accepted as theoretically plausible and a likely explanation for divergence in a handful of taxa, but its contribution to large-scale patterns of speciation remains contentious. A major problem is that it is difficult to differentiate between alternate scenarios of geographic speciation when species ranges have shifted substantially in the past. Previous studies have searched for a signal of the geographic mode of speciation by testing for a correlation between time since speciation and range overlap. Here we use simulations to show that the proportion of species showing zero or complete range overlap are more reliable indicators of the geography of speciation than is the correlation between time since speciation and overlap. We then apply these findings to the distributions of 291 pairs of avian sister species. Although 49% of pairs show some overlap in their ranges, our simulations show that this is not surprising under allopatric models of speciation. More revealingly, less than 2% show complete range overlap. Our simulations demonstrate that the observed patterns are most consistent with a model in which allopatric speciation is dominant but in which sympatric speciation is also present and contributes 5% of speciation events.

Aim Spatial patterns of phylogenetic diversity (PD) aid our ability to discern diversification rate mechanisms underlying hypotheses for the large-scale distribution of biodiversity. We develop a predictive framework for the way in which spatial patterns of PD vary with those of species richness, depending on the balance between speciation and extinction rates. Within this framework, diversification processes thought to underlie the productive energy, ambient energy, topographic variability and habitat variety hypotheses predict that gradients of increase in species richness will be associated with: (1) decreasing extinction rates where driven by productive energy, hence increasing relative PD (i.e. PD controlling for species richness, or PDrel); (2) a similar positive relationship between ambient energy and PDrel; (3) increasing speciation rates where driven by topographic variability, hence decreasing PDrel; and (4) no consistent relationship between PDrel and habitat variety when driven by the latter. We test these predictions using distributional data on parrots. Location Neotropical, Afrotropical, Indo-Malayan and Australasian realms. Methods Spatial models were used to test the predictions. Results Globally, a positive association between productive energy and PDrel confirms prediction (1). However, within realms, hump-shaped relationships suggest the importance of decreasing extinction rates up to a threshold level of productive energy, and the increasing importance of speciation rates thereafter. Ambient energy is positively associated with PDrel in Australasia, Indo-Malaya, and globally, supporting prediction (2). However, this is driven by the coincidence of highest PDrel in areas of high ambient energy and intermediate productive energy (i.e. in seasonal tropical environments), which may be characterized by relatively low speciation and extinction rates. In the Neotropics, increasing topographic variability is associated with decreasing PDrel and increasing species richness, suggesting an increasing gradient of speciation, supporting prediction (3). Elsewhere, the signal of this mechanism may be obscured by collinearities with energy gradients. The lack of an overall relationship between habitat diversity and PDrel confirms prediction (4). Main conclusions Spatial patterns of PDrel in relation to environmental gradients may be sensitive to collinearities among those gradients. Nevertheless, patterns emerge which have implications for the relative importance of speciation and extinction processes in generating latitudinal diversity gradients.

Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their ‘resilience’) is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin.

Spatial patterns of species richness follow climatic and environmental variation, but could reflect random dynamics of species ranges (the mid-domain effect, MDE). Using data on the global distribution of birds, we compared predictions based on energy availability (actual evapotranspiration, AET, the best single correlate of avian richness) with those of range dynamics models. MDE operating within the global terrestrial area provides a poor prediction of richness variation, but if it operates separately within traditional biogeographic realms, it explains more global variation in richness than AET. The best predictions, however, are given by a model of global range dynamics modulated by AET, such that the probability of a range spreading into an area is proportional to its AET. This model also accurately predicts the latitudinal variation in species richness and variation of species richness both within and between realms, thus representing a compelling mechanism for the major trends in global biodiversity.

Study of the latitudinal diversity gradient to date has focused largely on pattern description, with relatively little work on the possible mechanisms underlying the pattern. One proximate mechanism is a latitudinal bias in the discrepancy between speciation and extinction rates, leading to higher rates of species diversification toward lower latitudes. Despite being central to many explanations for high tropical diversity, this mechanism is tested very rarely. We discuss some of the problems involved in testing for latitudinal bias in diversification rates and present an example phylogenetic analysis for endemic bird genera of the New World. The results provide evidence for higher diversification rates in clades inhabiting lower latitudes, both when genera are considered independent and when phy- logeny is controlled for using independent contrasts. High rates of diversification are also associated with larger geographic area and higher net primary productivity, although these do not fully account for the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal pattern is stronger in younger clades, supporting the prediction of a simple model in which the signal of latitudinal bias in diversification rates diminishes as clades age and become saturated with species. Our study demonstrates that a clade-based approach can help answer important questions that a geographic approach cannot, but large phylogenies and geographic databases are needed to cope with the large amount of noise inherent in this type of analysis.

In this Article originally published, owing to a technical error, the author ‘Laurent Chirio’ was mistakenly designated as a corresponding author in the HTML version, the PDF was correct. This error has now been corrected in the HTML version. Further, in Supplementary Table 3, the authors misspelt the surname of ‘Danny Meirte’; this file has now been replaced.

Many large animal species have a high risk of extinction. This is usually thought to result simply from the way that species traits associated with vulnerability, such as low reproductive rates, scale with body size. In a broad-scale analysis of extinction risk in mammals, we find two additional patterns in the size selectivity of extinction risk. First, impacts of both intrinsic and environmental factors increase sharply above a threshold body mass around 3 kilograms. Second, whereas extinction risk in smaller species is driven by environmental factors, in larger species it is driven by a combination of environmental factors and intrinsic traits. Thus, the disadvantages of large size are greater than generally recognized, and future loss of large mammal biodiversity could be far more rapid than expected.

There is little appreciation of the level of extinction risk faced by one-sixth of the over 65,000 species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Determining the status of these data-deficient (DD) species is essential to developing an accurate picture of global biodiversity and identifying potentially threatened DD species. To address this knowledge gap, we used predictive models incorporating species' life history, geography, and threat information to predict the conservation status of DD terrestrial mammals. We constructed the models with 7 machine learning (ML) tools trained on species of known status. The resultant models showed very high species classification accuracy (up to 92%) and ability to correctly identify centers of threatened species richness. Applying the best model to DD species, we predicted 313 of 493 DD species (64%) to be at risk of extinction, which increases the estimated proportion of threatened terrestrial mammals from 22% to 27%. Regions predicted to contain large numbers of threatened DD species are already conservation priorities, but species in these areas show considerably higher levels of risk than previously recognized. We conclude that unless directly targeted for monitoring, species classified as DD are likely to go extinct without notice. Taking into account information on DD species may therefore help alleviate data gaps in biodiversity indicators and conserve poorly known biodiversity.

Few studies of global diversity gradients in plants exist, largely because the data are not available for all species involved. Instead, most global studies have focussed on vertebrates, as these taxa have historically been associated with the most complete data. Here, we address this shortfall by first investigating global diversity gradients in monocots, a morphologically and functionally diverse clade representing a quarter of flowering plant diversity, and then assessing congruence between monocot and vertebrate diversity patterns. To do this, we create a new dataset that merges biome-level associations for all monocot genera with country-level associations for almost all ∼70,000 species. We then assess the evidence for direct versus indirect effects of this plant diversity on vertebrate diversity using a combination of linear regression and structural equation modelling (SEM). Finally, we also calculate overlap of diversity hotspots for monocots and each vertebrate taxon. Monocots follow a latitudinal gradient although with pockets of extra-tropical diversity, mirroring patterns in vertebrates. Monocot diversity is positively associated with vertebrate diversity, but the strength of correlation varies depending on the clades being compared. Monocot diversity explains marginal amounts of variance (