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International audience; Ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have accelerated since the 1990s, accounting for a significant increase in the global mean sea level. Here, we present a new 29-year record of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2020 from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE). We compare and combine 50 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, in ice sheet volume, and in Earth's gravity field. Between 1992 and 2020, the ice sheets contributed 21.0±1.9 mm to global mean sea level, with the rate of mass loss rising from 105 Gt yr−1 between 1992 and 1996 to 372 Gt yr−1 between 2016 and 2020. In Greenland, the rate of mass loss is 169±9 Gt yr−1 between 1992 and 2020, but there are large inter-annual variations in mass balance, with mass loss ranging from 86 Gt yr−1 in 2017 to 444 Gt yr−1 in 2019 due to large variability in surface mass balance. In Antarctica, ice losses continue to be dominated by mass loss from West Antarctica (82±9 Gt yr−1) and, to a lesser extent, from the Antarctic Peninsula (13±5 Gt yr−1). East Antarctica remains close to a state of balance, with a small gain of 3±15 Gt yr−1, but is the most uncertain component of Antarctica's mass balance. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452 (IMBIE Team, 2021).

Antarctica, the coldest and driest continent, is home to the largest ice sheet. A common feature of polar regions is the warming associated with snowfall, as moist oceanic air and cloud cover contribute to increase the surface temperature. Consequently, the ice accumulated onto the ice sheet is deposited under unusually warm conditions. Here we use the polar-oriented atmospheric model MAR to study the statistical difference between average and snowfall-weighted temperatures. Most of Antarctica experiences a warming scaling with snowfall, although with strongest warming at sites with usually low accumulation. Heavier snowfalls in winter contribute to cool the snowfall-weighted temperature, but this effect is overwritten by the warming associated with atmospheric perturbations responsible for snowfall, which particularly contrast with the extremely cold conditions in winter. Disturbance in apparent annual temperature cycle and interannual variability may have major implications for water isotopes, which are deposited with snowfall and commonly used for paleo-temperature reconstructions.

In a context of global warming and sea level rise acceleration, it is key to estimate the evolution of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and temperature in the polar regions, which directly influence the surface mass balance of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. Direct observations are available from satellite data for the last 40 years and a few weather data since the 50’s in Antarctica. One of the best ways to access longer records is to use climate proxies in firn or ice cores. The water isotopic composition in these cores is widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations. In order to progress in our understanding of the influence of the atmospheric hydrological cycle on the water isotopic composition, we first present a 2-year long time series of vapor and precipitation isotopic composition measurement at Dumont d’Urville station, in Adélie Land. We characterize diurnal variations of meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity and δ18O) for the different seasons and to determine the evolution of key relationships (δ18O versus temperature or humidity) along the year: we found mean annual slopes of 0.5 and 0.4 ‰ °C−1 for the relationship of δ18O vs. temperature in the water vapor and in the precipitation respectively. Then, this data set is used to evaluate the Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM6-wiso (model version with embedded water stable isotopes) in a region where local conditions are controlled by strong katabatic winds which directly impact the isotopic signal. We show that a combination of continental (79 %) and oceanic (21 %) grid cells leads model outputs (temperature, humidity and δ18O) to nicely fit the observations, even winter extreme synoptic events are represented in the model. Therefore we demonstrate the added value of long-term water vapor isotopic composition records. Then, as a clear link is found between water vapor and precipitation isotopic composition, we evaluate how isotopic enabled models can help interpreting short firn cores.

International audience; The performance of a set of atmospheric models and meteorological reanalyses in the representation of precipitation days in Antarctica is assessed using ground-based observations such as a precipitation gauge and a Micro Rain Radar during the Year Of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period at Dumont d'Urville (November 2018 - February 2019), East Antarctic coast. The occurrence of precipitation is overall well predicted but the number of days and intensity with snowfall are overestimated by the models. This is reflected by high values of bias, probability of detection and false alarm ratios, in particular for reanalyses, due to too frequent simulated precipitating days. The Heidke skill score shows the overall great contribution of the models in the forecasting of precipitating days, and the best performances are achieved by numerical weather prediction models. The chronology is better represented when the models benefit from the data assimilation of in-situ observations, such as in reanalysis or weather forecasting models. Precipitation amounts at the surface are overestimated by most of the models. In addition, data from a ground-based radar make it possible to evaluate the representation of the vertical profiles of snowfall rate. We can show that an excessive sublimation in the atmospheric boundary layer can compensate for overly strong precipitation flux in the mid and low troposphere. Therefore the need to expand the measurement of precipitation across the atmospheric column using radars is highlighted, in particular in Antarctica where the cold cloud microphysics is poorly known and observations are particularly rare.

Ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets have accelerated since the 1990s, accounting for a significant increase in global mean sea level. Here, we present a new 29-year record of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2020 from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE). We compare and combine 50 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, in ice sheet volume and in Earth’s gravity field. Between 1992 and 2020, the ice sheets contributed 21.0 ± 1.9 mm to global mean sea-level, with the rate of mass loss rising from 105 Gt yr-1 between 1992 and 1996 to 372 Gt yr-1 between 2016 and 2020. In Greenland, the rate of mass loss is 169 ± 9 Gt yr-1 between 1992 and 2020 but there are large inter-annual variations in mass balance with mass loss ranging from 86 Gt yr-1 in 2017 to 444 Gt yr-1 in 2019 due to large variability in surface mass balance. In Antarctica, ice losses continue to be dominated by mass loss from West Antarctica (-82 ± 9 Gt yr-1) and to a lesser extent from the Antarctic Peninsula (-13 ± 5 Gt yr-1). East Antarctica remains close to a state of balance (3 ± 15 Gt yr-1), but is the most uncertain component of Antarctica’s mass balance.

Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st-century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models or whether local feedback mechanisms of the surface energy budget could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) to study the physical mechanisms that would control future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of supercooled liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snowmelt–albedo feedback. As liquid-containing clouds are projected to increase the melt spread associated with a given warming rate, they could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise.

Sur une grande partie de l'Antarctique, le bilan de masse (c'est-à-dire de neige) de surface est dominé par quelques événements de précipitations extrêmes. Ces événements dépendent d'intrusions de masses d'air très humide associées à des phénomènes dénommés rivières atmosphériques en provenance de l'océan Austral. Ces rivières atmosphériques influencent fortement le climat ; pourtant, les caractéristiques, les mécanismes et les impacts associés restent mal connus en Antarctique. Nous résumons ici l'état des connaissances sur la mise en place de ces événements extrêmes et leurs impacts à la fois sur l'accumulation de neige, le réchauffement et la fonte en surface de la calotte. Over much of Antarctica, the surface mass balance (i.e. the resultant of snow fluxes at the surface of the ice sheet) is dominated by a few extreme precipitation events. It has recently been shown that these events are linked to intrusions of highly humid air masses related with atmospheric rivers traversing the Southern Ocean. These atmospheric rivers strongly influence the climate, yet their meteorological characterization and associated impacts remain poorly understood in Antarctica. We summarize here the latest research regarding the development of these extreme events and their impacts on snow accumulation, warming, and surface melt on the Antarctic ice sheet.

Large efforts are engaged to model climate-ice sheet interactions in order to estimate Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets’ contribution to sea level in the next decades to centuries. Here we present a first-order evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over both polar regions. We focus on large-scale atmospheric fields and surface ocean variables only. Our goal is to provide a first overview of climate model biases in polar regions, in order to use their outputs on an informed basis. We particularly target the use of climate model outputs for forcing ice sheet models and regional atmospheric models.We consider 9 (non-independent) variables : 850 hPa and 700 hPa annual and summer temperature, annual integrated water vapor, annual sea level pressure, annual 500hPa geopotential height, summer sea surface temperature, and winter sea ice concentration; over the Arctic (> 50°N) and the Antarctic (

Stable water isotopes are a tracer of hydrological processes and a paleoclimate proxy from ice core records. The interpretation of the latter relies on fractionation processes throughout the hydrological cycle, from the evaporation over the ocean, during each precipitation event, and during post-deposition processes, in particular due to the exchanges between the snow and the moisture in the atmosphere. Thanks to new developments in infrared spectroscopy, it is now possible to monitor not only the snow isotopic composition but also the vapour continuously, and thus document exchanges between the snow and the vapour. On the East Antarctic Plateau, records of water vapour isotopic composition in Kohnen and Dome C during summer have revealed significant diurnal variability which can be used to address the exchange between surface snow and atmospheric water vapour as well as the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this study, we present the first vapour monitoring on a transect across East Antarctica for a period of 3 months from November 2019 to February 2020 during the EAIIST traverse, covering more than 3600 km. In parallel, we also monitored the vapour isotopic composition at two stations: Dumont D’Urville (DDU), the starting point, and Dome C, half way through. Efforts on the calibration on each monitoring station, as well as cross-calibration of the different instruments offer a unique opportunity to compare both the spatial and temporal (diurnal variability or at the scale of several days) gradients of humidity, temperature and water vapour isotopic composition in East Antarctica during the summer season. With the use of the Modele Atmospherique Régional (MAR), we compare the variability measured in water vapour isotopic composition, temperature and humidity with the different systems (fixed or mobile location). Although further comparisons with the surface snow isotopic composition are required to quantify the impact of the snow-atmosphere exchanges on the local surface mass balance, these three simultaneous measurements of the vapour isotopic composition show the potential of using water stables isotopes to evaluate hydrological processes in East Antarctica.

Surface winds in Antarctica are amongst the strongest and most persistent winds on Earth. They play a key role in defining the surface climate.While new proxys are being developed in order to understand their past evolution, it is a crucial to understand the processes controlling their temporal variability. Here, we investigate the drivers of surface winds variability in East Antarctica at present-day. To do so, we separate the wind-speed temporal variations from daily outputs of the regional atmospheric model MAR at 35 km resolution into different terms of the dynamic equations. Our study focuses on a transect running through Adelie Land, where numerous meteorological measurements are being conducted. We identify the combination of terms that correlates best in winter to the wind speed in this region.On the Antarctic plateau, wind speed is controlled by the balance between large-scale pressure gradient acceleration and turbulence.At mid-slope, the katabatic term is the greatest but does not correlate with wind-speed. One of the reason that explains this result is that increasing positive katabatic forcing is counteracted by increasing turbulence (negative term, deceleration effect). Consequently, the combination of the turbulence and katabatic terms correlates slightly better to wind-speed intensity.At the coast, wind-speed intensity mainly results from the katabatic and thermal wind terms. As a conclusion, the study of a smaller number of contribution terms in the budget equation will help evaluating the drivers of past and future evolution of wind speed in this region.

Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing, and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models, or whether local surface energy budget feedbacks could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR to study the physical mechanisms that will control future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP585. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snow-melt-albedo feedback. Since liquid-containing clouds are projected to increase the melt spread associated with a given warming rate, they could be a major source of uncertainties related to the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise.

Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing, and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models, or whether local surface energy budget feedbacks could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR to study the physical mechanisms that will control future melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP585. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snow-melt-albedo feedback. By increasing melt differences over the ice shelves in the next decades, liquid-containing clouds could be a major source of uncertainties related to the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise.

Understanding the interannual variability of surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melting in Antarctica is key to quantify the signal-to-noise ratio in climate trends, identify opportunities for multi-year climate predictions and assess the ability of climate models to respond to climate variability. Here we simulate summer SMB and surface melting from 1979 to 2017 using the Regional Atmosphere Model (MAR) at 10 km resolution over the drainage basins of the Amundsen Sea glaciers in West Antarctica. Our simulations reproduce the mean present-day climate in terms of near-surface temperature (mean overestimation of 0.10 ∘C), near-surface wind speed (mean underestimation of 0.42 m s−1), and SMB (relative bias  % over Thwaites glacier). The simulated interannual variability of SMB and melting is also close to observation-based estimates. For all the Amundsen glacial drainage basins, the interannual variability of summer SMB and surface melting is driven by two distinct mechanisms: high summer SMB tends to occur when the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is shifted southward and westward, while high summer melt rates tend to occur when ASL is shallower (i.e. anticyclonic anomaly). Both mechanisms create a northerly flow anomaly that increases moisture convergence and cloud cover over the Amundsen Sea and therefore favors snowfall and downward longwave radiation over the ice sheet. The part of interannual summer SMB variance explained by the ASL longitudinal migrations increases westward and reaches 40 % for Getz. Interannual variation in the ASL relative central pressure is the largest driver of melt rate variability, with 11 % to 21 % of explained variance (increasing westward). While high summer SMB and melt rates are both favored by positive phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) only explains 5 % to 16 % of SMB or melt rate interannual variance in our simulations, with moderate statistical significance. However, the part explained by SOI in the previous austral winter is greater, suggesting that at least a part of the ENSO–SMB and ENSO–melt relationships in summer is inherited from the previous austral winter. Possible mechanisms involve sea ice advection from the Ross Sea and intrusions of circumpolar deep water combined with melt-induced ocean overturning circulation in ice shelf cavities. Finally, we do not find any correlation with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in summer.

Dumont d'Urville station, located on the East coast of Antarctica in Adelie Land, is in one of the windiest coastal region on Earth, due to katabatic winds downslope from the East Antarctic ice sheet. In summer, the season of interest in this study, coastal weather is characterized by well-marked diel cycles in temperature and wind patterns. Our study aims at exploring the added value of water vapor stable isotopes in coastal Adelie Land to provide new information on the local atmospheric water cycle and climate. An important application is the interpretation of water isotopic profiles in snow and ice cores recently drilled in Adelie Land. We present the first continuous measurements of δ 18 O and d-excess in water vapor over Adelie Land. During our measurements period (26/12/2016 to 03/02/2017), we observed clear diel cycles in terms of temperature, humidity and isotopic composition. The cycles in isotopic composition are particularly large given the muted variations in temperature when compared to other Antarctic sites where similar monitoring have been performed. Based on data analyses and simulations obtained with the regional MAR model on the coastal Adelie Land, we suggest that the driver for δ 18 O and d-excess diel variability in summer at Dumont d'Urville is the variation of the strength of the wind coming from the continent: the periods with strong wind are associated with the arrival of relatively dry air with water vapor associated with low δ 18 O and high d-excess from the Antarctic plateau. Finally, in addition to the interpretation of snow and ice core isotopic profiles in the coastal regions, our study has implications for the evaluation of atmospheric models equipped with water isotopes.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

International audience; The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is classified as a polar desert where, similar to other deserts around the world, the annual precipitation is dependent on a few episodic precipitation events. Recent research has highlighted that certain regions of the AIS receive 40%-60% of their total annual precipitation from the largest 10% of daily precipitation events (Turner et al., 2019). There is a high coast-inland snowfall gradient, as most

Precipitation along with sublimation and deposition are the main contributors to the surface mass balance (SMB) in the accumulation area of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). However, precipitation events are rare and intermittent. In between precipitation events the surface snow continuously undergoes sublimation and deposition. Recent studies imply that these surface exchange processes influence the isotopic composition of the surface snow which is later archived as a climate record in ice cores. In order to understand the possible implications on the recorded climate signal, sublimation needs to be quantified on a local scale.Here we present simulated SMB components for eight ice core drilling sites on the GrIS using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional). We validated MAR against in-situ flux observations at the East Greenland Ice Core Project site and found a high sensitivity of sublimation to the downward long wave flux and to the parameterization of the surface roughness length. We propose a surface roughness length optimized for the interior of the GrIS which is supported by our observations.Our results show that in the GrIS accumulation area the mass turnover via sublimation and deposition can reach the same order of magnitude as precipitation. This highlights the importance of a better understanding of how the climate signal is imprinted in the surface snow isotopic composition.

Stable water isotopes are effective hydrological tracers due to fractionation processes throughout the water cycle, and thus, the stable isotopes from ice cores can serve as valuable proxies for past changes in the climate and local environment of polar regions. Proper interpretation of these isotopes requires to understand the influence of each potential fractionating process, such as initial evaporation over the ocean and precipitation events, but also the effects of post-depositional exchange between snow and moisture in the atmosphere. Thanks to new developments in infrared spectroscopy, it is now possible to continuously monitor the isotopic composition of atmospheric water vapor in coordination with discrete snow sampling. This allows us to readily document the isotopic and mass exchanges between snow and vapor as well as the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer, as has recently been shown on the East Antarctic Plateau at Kohnen (Ritter et al., TC, 2016) and Dome C (Casado et al., ACP, 2016) stations where substantial diurnal isotopic variations have been recorded.In this study, we present the first vapor monitoring of an East Antarctic transect that covered more than 3600 km over a period of 3 months from November 2019 to February 2020 as part of the EAIIST mission. The isotopic record therefore describes the evolution from typical coastal values to highly depleted values deep inside the continent on the high-altitude plateau. In parallel, we also monitored the vapor isotopic composition at two stations: the coastal starting point of Dumont D’Urville (DDU) and the plateau halfway point of Dome C. Two automatic weather stations (at Paleo and Megadunes sites) were also installed in a previously unexplored region of the East Antarctic plateau that was covered by this transect. This suite of cross-calibrated vapor isotope observations and weather stations, coupled with Modele Atmospherique Régional (MAR) climate modeling, offers a unique opportunity to compare the spatial and temporal gradients of humidity, temperature, and water vapor isotopic composition in East Antarctica during the summer season, and to estimate how the water vapour isotope measurements at Dome C and DDU are representative of the conditions in East Antarctica. The quantitative agreement between the EAIIST record and those recorded at DDU and Dome C stations at the times the raid was nearby, gives confidence in the quality of the results acquired on this traverse. Although further comparisons with the surface snow isotopic composition are required to quantify the impact of the snow-atmosphere exchanges on the local surface mass balance, these initial results of vapor isotopic composition show the potential of using water stables isotopes to evaluate hydrological processes in East Antarctica and better reconstruct past climate changes through ice cores.

On December 19-21, 2018, an atmospheric river hit the French-Italian Concordia station, located at Dome C, East Antarctic Plateau, 3 269 m above sea level. It induced an extreme surface warming (+ 15°C in 3 days), combined with high specific humidity (multiplied by 3 in 3 days) and a strong isotopic anomaly in water vapor (+ 15 ‰ for δ18O). The isotopic composition of water vapor monitored during the event may be explained by (1) the isotopic signature of long-range water transport, and by (2) local moisture uptake during the event. In this study we quantify the influence of each of these processes.To estimate the isotopic composition of water vapor advected by long-range transport, we perform back-trajectories with the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model FLEXPART. We retrieve meteorological conditions along different trajectories between the moisture uptake area and Concordia, and use them to compute isotopic fractionation during transport with the mixed cloud isotope model MCIM. While intermediate conditions along the trajectory do not seem to have a major impact on the final isotopic composition (less than 0.1 ‰), the latter appears sensitive to surface conditions (temperature, pressure and relative humidity) in the moisture uptake area (±5.1 ‰). As the event is characterized by the presence of liquid water clouds above Concordia, we show additional sensitivity tests exploring the impact of mixed phase clouds on the water vapor isotopic composition.Finally, we perform a water vapor mass budget in the boundary layer using observations and simulations from the regional atmospheric model MAR, ran with and without drifting snow. The presence of mixed-phase clouds during the event induced a significant increase in downward longwave radiative fluxes, which led to high turbulent mixing in the boundary layer and to heavy drifting snow (white-out conditions). Using MAR simulations, we show that a significant part of the atmospheric water vapor originates from sublimation of drifting snow particles removed from the snowpack. Consequently, the isotopic signal monitored in water vapor during this atmospheric river event reflects both long-range moisture advection and interactions between the boundary layer and the snowpack. Only specific meteorological conditions driven by the atmospheric river, and their associated intense poleward moisture transport, can explain these strong interactions.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The future surface mass balance (SMB) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the sea level rise. Most of recent Antarctic SMB projections were based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, new CMIP6 results have revealed a +1.3 ∘C higher mean Antarctic near-surface temperature than in CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century, enabling estimations of future SMB in warmer climates. Here, we investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings with an ensemble of four simulations performed with the polar regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) forced by two CMIP5 and two CMIP6 models over 1981–2100. Statistical extrapolation enables us to expand our results to the whole CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Our results highlight a contrasting effect on the future grounded ice sheet and the ice shelves. The SMB over grounded ice is projected to increase as a response to stronger snowfall, only partly offset by enhanced meltwater run-off. This leads to a cumulated sea-level-rise mitigation (i.e. an increase in surface mass) of the grounded Antarctic surface by 5.1 ± 1.9 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) in CMIP5-RCP8.5 (Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and 6.3 ± 2.0 cm SLE in CMIP6-ssp585 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585). Additionally, the CMIP6 low-emission ssp126 and intermediate-emission ssp245 scenarios project a stabilized surface mass gain, resulting in a lower mitigation to sea level rise than in ssp585. Over the ice shelves, the strong run-off increase associated with higher temperature is projected to decrease the SMB (more strongly in CMIP6-ssp585 compared to CMIP5-RCP8.5). Ice shelves are however predicted to have a close-to-present-equilibrium stable SMB under CMIP6 ssp126 and ssp245 scenarios. Future uncertainties are mainly due to the sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the timing of the projected warming. While ice shelves should remain at a close-to-equilibrium stable SMB under the Paris Agreement, MAR projects strong SMB decrease for an Antarctic near-surface warming above +2.5 ∘C compared to 1981–2010 mean temperature, limiting the warming range before potential irreversible damages on the ice shelves. Finally, our results reveal the existence of a potential threshold (+7.5 ∘C) that leads to a lower grounded-SMB increase. This however has to be confirmed in following studies using more extreme or longer future scenarios.

In this study, we use run-time bias-correction to correct for ARPEGE atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an ARPEGE simulation relaxed towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. The improvements with respect to the AMIP-style uncorrected control run for the general atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere are significant for mean state and daily variability. Comparisons for the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the polar-oriented regional atmospheric models MAR and RACMO2 and in-situ observations also suggest substantial bias reduction for near-surface temperature and precipitation in coastal areas. Applying the method to climate projections for the late 21st century (2071–2100) leads to large differences in the projected changes of the atmospheric circulation in the Southern high latitudes and of the Antarctic surface climate. The projected poleward shift and strengthening of the southern westerly winds are greatly reduced. These changes result in a significant 0.7 to 0.9 K additional warming and a 6 to 9 % additional increase in precipitation over the grounded ice sheet. The sensitivity of precipitation increase to temperature (+7.7 and +9 %.K−1) found is also higher than previous estimates. Highest additional warming rates are found over East Antarctica in summer. In winter, there is a dipole of weaker warming and weaker precipitation increase over West Antarctica, contrasted by a stronger warming and a concomitant stronger precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land, associated with a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low.

Understanding climate proxy records that preserve physical characteristics of past climate is a prerequisite to reconstruct long-term climatic conditions. Water stable isotope ratios (δ18O) constitute a widely used proxy in ice cores to reconstruct temperature and climate. However, the original climate signal is altered between the formation of precipitation and the ice, especially in low-accumulation areas such as the East Antarctic Plateau. Atmospheric conditions under which the isotopic signal is acquired at Aurora Basin North (ABN), East Antarctica, are characterized with the regional atmospheric model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR). The model shows that 50% of the snow is accumulated in less than 24 days year−1. Snowfall occurs throughout the year and intensifies during winter, with 64% of total accumulation between April and September, leading to a cold bias of −0.86°C in temperatures above inversion compared to the annual mean of −29.7°C. Large snowfall events are associated with high-pressure systems forcing warm oceanic air masses toward the Antarctic interior, which causes a warm bias of +2.83°C. The temperature-δ18O relationship, assessed with the global atmospheric model ECHAM5-wiso, is primarily constrained by the winter variability, but the observed slope is valid year-round. Three snow δ18O records covering 2004–2014 indicate that the anomalies recorded in the ice core are attributable to the occurrence of warm winter storms bringing precipitation to ABN and support the interpretation of δ18O in this region as a marker of temperature changes related to large-scale atmospheric conditions, particularly blocking events and variations in the Southern Annular Mode. publishedVersion

We present projections of West-Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melting to 2080–2100, under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes, despite a 16–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 to 8.9 % per °C of near-surface warming, due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude along the 21st century, mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity, and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. Eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove and Pine Island) experience significant runoff in the future, while western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson and Getz) remain without runoff. This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and runoff occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.

The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979–2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363 Gt yr−1 over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16 % of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.

Due to the increased ability of the air to hold moisture with temperature, precipitation in Antarctica is expected to increase significantly over the next century. This process will undoubtedly lead to an increase in snow accumulation on the continent, thereby partially mitigating future sea level rise. However, recent observed trends in temperature and snow accumulation in Antarctica are insignificant and paradoxical. The role played by moisture intrusions in temperature and precipitation variability could partly explain this phenomenon. These events are known to transport warm air masses from the oceans to the Antarctic continent, but only individual and unrelated intrusion events have been described so far. In an earlier study of the Dronning Maud Land region, the description of atmospheric rivers (ARs) provided an innovative view to describe high intensity moisture intrusions. In this thesis, we develop an atmospheric river detection algorithm adapted to the polar regions, in order to create a climatology of these events at the Antarctic scale. Using the outputs of the regional climate model, MAR (Regional Atmospheric Model), we evaluate the impacts of atmospheric rivers on the melting in West Antarctic, ice-shelf stability on the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves, and on snowfall across the Antarctic ice sheet.Atmospheric rivers are infrequent events with coastal areas of Antarctica experiencing AR conditions around only three days per year on average and this value is even lower in Antarctic interior. However, ARs control surface melting processes on West Antarctica and precipitation variability on East Antarctica. In the west, ARs entering the interior of the continent cause positive anomalies in downward longwave radiation via highly liquid-laden clouds and wind, resulting in a marked foehn effect along leeward slopes. Between 1979 and 2017, rivers were thus associated with about 40% of the summer melt on the Ross Ice Shelf (nearly 100% at higher altitudes on Marie Byrd Land) and 40-80% of the winter melt along the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula. In summer, these rivers also contribute to the melting of the Larsen ice shelves located east of the Peninsula. Their direct contribution to cumulative melting is more limited than in winter because the intense solar radiation in summer allows daily melting to occur. However, ARs caused 60-80% of the most intense melt/runoff events as well as high temperature extremes. This melting is linked to the Foehn effect and the positive longwave radiative fluxes anomalies over the eastern Peninsula during AR passages. The melt water accumulates in lakes and crevasses on the ice shelf surface, a preliminary step in ice shelf disintegration by hydraulic fracturing. ARs also push sea ice away from the coast, allowing swells to hit and apply strain to the ice-shelf margins. ARs can thus trigger the final disintegration of ice shelves. In particular, ARs were present during the disintegration of the Larsen A ice shelf in late January 1995 and the Larsen B ice shelf in late February/early March 2002. Overall, since 2000, 12 of the last 20 calving or collapse events along the Larsen Ice Shelves have been preceded (within 5 days) by the arrival of an AR. Finally, atmospheric rivers are responsible for the majority of the most intense precipitation in Antarctica. In eastern Antarctica, 20-30% of the snow accumulation occurred during of AR landfalls. Although this value remains modest, we observe that AR activity controls the trends and interannual variability of snowfall in this part of the continent. This control even extends to most of the ice sheet between 1980 and 2018.Ultimately, ARs play an important role in the Antarctic surface mass balance. Therefore, a change in atmospheric blocking conditions around Antarctica during the 21st century would lead to changes in the Antarctic surface mass balance. Such changes are currently ignored in climate change impact projections.

The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet is often considered as a negative contributor to the sea level rise as present snowfall accumulation largely compensates for ablation through wind erosion, sublimation and runoff. The latter is even almost negligible since current Antarctic surface melting is limited to relatively scarce events over generally peripheral areas and refreezes almost entirely into the snowpack. However, melting can significantly affect the stability of ice shelves through hydrofracturing, potentially leading to their disintegration, acceleration of grounded ice and increased sea level rise. Although a large increase in snowfall is expected in a warmer climate, more numerous and stronger melting events could conversely lead to a larger risk of ice shelf collapse. In this study, we provide an estimation of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet for the end of the 21st century by forcing the state-of-the-art regional climate model MAR with three different global climate models. We chose the models (from both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 - CMIP5 and CMIP6) providing the best metrics for representing the current Antarctic climate. While the increase in snowfall largely compensates snow ablation through runoff in CMIP5-forced projections, CMIP6-forced simulations reveal that runoff cannot be neglected in the future as it accounts for a maximum of 50% of snowfall and becomes the main ablation component over the ice sheet. Furthermore, we identify a tipping point (ie., a warming of 4°C) at which the Antarctic SMB starts to decrease as a result of enhanced runoff particularly over ice shelves. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account meltwater production and runoff and indicate that previous model studies neglecting these processes yield overestimated SMB estimates, ultimately leading to underestimated Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Finally, melt rates over each ice shelf are higher than those that led to the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves, suggesting a high probability of ice shelf collapses all over peripheral Antarctica by 2100.

We present Surface Mass Balance (SMB) and surface melt rates projections in West Antarctica for the end of the 21st century using the MAR regional atmosphere and firn model (Gallée 1994; Agosta et al. 2019) forced by a CMIP5-rcp85 multi-model-mean seasonal anomaly added to the ERA-Interim 6-hourly reanalysis. First of all, we assess the validity of our projection method, following a perfect-model approach, with MAR constrained by the ACCESS-1.3 present-day and future climates. Changes in large-scale variables are well captured by our anomaly-based projection method, and errors on surface melting and SMB projections are typically 10%. Based on the CMIP5-rcp85 multi-model mean, SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the Amundsen sector is projected to increase by 35% over the 21st century. This corresponds to a SMB sensitivity to near-surface warming of 8.3%.°C-1. Increased humidity, resulting from both higher water vapour saturation in warmer conditions and decreased sea-ice concentrations, are shown to favour increased SMB in the future scenario. Ice-shelf surface melt rates at the end of the 21st century are projected to become 6 to 15 times larger than presently, depending on the ice shelf under consideration. This is due to enhanced downward longwave radiative fluxes related to increased humidity, and to an albedo feedback leading to more absorption of shortwave radiation. Interestingly, only three ice shelves produce runoff (Abbot, Cosgrove and Pine Island) in the future climate. For the other ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, Getz), the future melt-to-snowfall ratio remains too low to produce firn air depletion and subsequent runoff.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992–2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.

We review recent literature on atmospheric, surface ocean and sea-ice observations and modeling results in the Antarctic sector and relate the observed climatic trends with the potential changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the ice sheet since 1900. Estimates of regional scale SMB distribution and trends remain subject to large uncertainties. Approaches combining and comparing multiple satellite and model-based assessments of ice sheet mass balance aim at reducing these knowledge gaps. During the last decades, significant changes in atmospheric circulation occurred around Antarctica, due to the exceptional positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode and to the climate variability observed in the tropical Pacific at the end of the twentieth century. Even though climate over the East Antarctic Ice-Sheet remained quite stable, a warming and precipitation increase was observed over the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet and over the West Antarctic Peninsula (AP) during the twentieth century. However, the high regional climate variability overwhelms climate changes associated to human drivers of global temperature changes, as reflected by a slight recent decadal cooling trend over the AP. Climate models still fail to accurately reproduce the multi-decadal SMB trends at a regional scale, and progress has to be achieved in reproducing atmospheric circulation changes related to complex ocean/ice/atmosphere interactions. Complex processes are also still insufficiently considered, such as (1) specific polar atmospheric processes (clouds, drifting snow, and stable boundary layer physics), (2) surface firn physics involved in the surface drag variations, or in firn air depletion and albedo feedbacks. Finally, progress in reducing the uncertainties relative to projections of the future SMB of Antarctica will largely depend on climate model capability to correctly consider teleconnections with low and mid-latitudes, and on the ability to correct them for biases, taking into account the coupling between ocean, ice, and atmosphere in high southern latitudes.

With the aim of studying the recent Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) decrease relative to the last century, we have forced the regional climate MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional; version 3.5.2) model with the ERA-Interim (ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis; 1979–2015), ERA-40 (1958–2001), NCEP–NCARv1 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis version 1; 1948–2015), NCEP–NCARv2 (1979–2015), JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis; 1958–2014), 20CRv2(c) (Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2; 1900–2014) and ERA-20C (1900–2010) reanalyses. While all these forcing products are reanalyses that are assumed to represent the same climate, they produce significant differences in the MAR-simulated SMB over their common period. A temperature adjustment of +1 °C (respectively −1 °C) was, for example, needed at the MAR boundaries with ERA-20C (20CRv2) reanalysis, given that ERA-20C (20CRv2) is ∼ 1 °C colder (warmer) than ERA-Interim over Greenland during the period 1980–2010. Comparisons with daily PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet) near-surface observations support these adjustments. Comparisons with SMB measurements, ice cores and satellite-derived melt extent reveal the most accurate forcing datasets for the simulation of the GrIS SMB to be ERA-Interim and NCEP–NCARv1. However, some biases remain in MAR, suggesting that some improvements are still needed in its cloudiness and radiative schemes as well as in the representation of the bare ice albedo. Results from all MAR simulations indicate that (i) the period 1961–1990, commonly chosen as a stable reference period for Greenland SMB and ice dynamics, is actually a period of anomalously positive SMB (∼ +40 Gt yr−1) compared to 1900–2010; (ii) SMB has decreased significantly after this reference period due to increasing and unprecedented melt reaching the highest rates in the 120-year common period; (iii) before 1960, both ERA-20C and 20CRv2-forced MAR simulations suggest a significant precipitation increase over 1900–1950, but this increase could be the result of an artefact in the reanalyses that are not well-enough constrained by observations during this period and (iv) since the 1980s, snowfall is quite stable after having reached a maximum in the 1970s. These MAR-based SMB and accumulation reconstructions are, however, quite similar to those from Box (2013) after 1930 and confirm that SMB was quite stable from the 1940s to the 1990s. Finally, only the ERA-20C-forced simulation suggests that SMB during the 1920–1930 warm period over Greenland was comparable to the SMB of the 2000s, due to both higher melt and lower precipitation than normal.

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice-sheet-climate models and standalone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea-level change projections to be performed with standalone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea-level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice-ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, as well as present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Ice sheet mass balance results of the small imbalance between ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Past change in ice sheet mass can be assessed using satellite altimetry, gravimetry, or the input-output method, which all request SMB estimates.The input-output method, which consists in separately modeling ice dynamics and SMB, is also the only way to project future trends. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR to estimate the Antarctic SMB for the period 1979-2018 using forcing from 7 reanalyses: ERA-5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA2, NCEP1, NCEP2, and 20CRv2. We show that spatial patterns of SMB modeled by the reanalyses diverge significantly between each-other, whereas the spread is insignificant after downscaling with MAR. SMB modeled with MAR is markedly closer to observations than the original reanalyses outputs. Divergences in SMB between reanalyses and MAR are driven by divergences in snowfall amounts, which are explained by processes related to clouds and precipitation in the atmosphere (notably cloud-precipitation conversion, precipitation advection and precipitation sublimation) rather than by model resolution. The temporal variability of downscaled SMB is however strongly related to the forcing reanalysis variability. This study emphasis the importance of polar-specific processes and of their implementation in climate models, particularly in view of atmosphere-ice sheet coupling. &nbsp

Recent major melting events in West Antarctica have raised concerns about a potential hydrofracturing and ice shelf instability. These events often share common forcings of surface melt-like anomalous radiative fluxes, turbulent heat fluxes and fohn winds. Using an atmospheric river detection algorithm developed for Antarctica together with surface melt datasets, we produced a climatology of atmospheric river-related surface melting around Antarctica and show that atmospheric rivers are associated with a large percentage of these surface melt events. Despite their rarity (around 12 events per year in West Antarctica), atmospheric rivers are associated with around 40% of the total summer meltwater generated across the Ross Ice Shelf to nearly 100% in the higher elevation Marie Byrd Land and 40–80% of the total winter meltwater generated on the Wilkins, Bach, George IV and Larsen B and C ice shelves. These events were all related to high-pressure blocking ridges that directed anomalous poleward moisture transport towards the continent. Major melt events in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet only occur about a couple times per decade, but a 1–2 °C warming and continued increase in atmospheric river activity could increase the melt frequency with consequences for ice shelf stability. Atmospheric rivers associated with blocking events are related to a large fraction of the surface ice melt events in West Antarctica, suggest observation-based analyses of atmospheric dynamics and West Antarctic surface melt.

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